Global burden of bladder cancer mortality in 2020 and 2040 according to GLOBOCAN estimates.

INTRODUCTION: In 2020, bladder cancer (BC) was the seventh most prevalent cancer in the world, with 5-year prevalence of more than 1.7 million cases. Due to the main risk factors-smoking and chemical exposures-associated with BC, it is considered a largely preventable and avoidable cancer. An overview of BC mortality can allow an insight not only into the prevalence of global risk factors, but also into the varying efficiency of healthcare systems worldwide. For this purpose, this study analyzes the national mortality estimates for 2020 and projected future trends up to 2040. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Age-standardized mortality rates per 100,000 person-years of BC for 185 countries by sex were obtained from the GLOBOCAN 2020 database, operated by the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC). Mortality rates were stratified according to sex and Human Development Index (HDI). BC deaths were projected up to 2040 on the basis of demographic changes, alongside different scenarios of annually increasing, stable or decreasing mortality rates from the baseline year of 2020. RESULTS: In 2020, nearly three times more men died from BC than women, with more than 210,000 deaths in both sexes combined, worldwide. Regardless of gender, more than half of the total BC deaths were from countries with a very high HDI. According to our projections, while the number of deaths for men can only increase up to 54% (from 159 to around 163-245 thousand), for women it is projected to increase two- to three-fold (from 50 to around 119-176 thousand) by 2040. The burden of BC mortality in countries with a very high HDI versus high HDI appears to converge by 2040 for both sexes. CONCLUSION: Opposite mortality trends by gender highlight the urgent need for immediate interventions to expand anti-tobacco strategies, especially for women. The implementation of more strict occupational health and safety regulations could also prevent exposures associated with BC. Improving the ability to detect BC earlier and access to treatment can have a significant positive impact on reducing mortality rates, minimizing economic costs, and enhancing the quality of life for patients.

Global cancer statistics 2022: GLOBOCAN estimates of incidence and mortality worldwide for 36 cancers in 185 countries.

This article presents global cancer statistics by world region for the year 2022 based on updated estimates from the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC). There were close to 20 million new cases of cancer in the year 2022 (including nonmelanoma skin cancers [NMSCs]) alongside 9.7 million deaths from cancer (including NMSC). The estimates suggest that approximately one in five men or women develop cancer in a lifetime, whereas around one in nine men and one in 12 women die from it. Lung cancer was the most frequently diagnosed cancer in 2022, responsible for almost 2.5 million new cases, or one in eight cancers worldwide (12.4% of all cancers globally), followed by cancers of the female breast (11.6%), colorectum (9.6%), prostate (7.3%), and stomach (4.9%). Lung cancer was also the leading cause of cancer death, with an estimated 1.8 million deaths (18.7%), followed by colorectal (9.3%), liver (7.8%), female breast (6.9%), and stomach (6.8%) cancers. Breast cancer and lung cancer were the most frequent cancers in women and men, respectively (both cases and deaths). Incidence rates (including NMSC) varied from four-fold to five-fold across world regions, from over 500 in Australia/New Zealand (507.9 per 100,000) to under 100 in Western Africa (97.1 per 100,000) among men, and from over 400 in Australia/New Zealand (410.5 per 100,000) to close to 100 in South-Central Asia (103.3 per 100,000) among women. The authors examine the geographic variability across 20 world regions for the 10 leading cancer types, discussing recent trends, the underlying determinants, and the prospects for global cancer prevention and control. With demographics-based predictions indicating that the number of new cases of cancer will reach 35 million by 2050, investments in prevention, including the targeting of key risk factors for cancer (including smoking, overweight and obesity, and infection), could avert millions of future cancer diagnoses and save many lives worldwide, bringing huge economic as well as societal dividends to countries over the forthcoming decades.

Gains in life expectancy from decreasing cardiovascular disease and cancer mortality - an analysis of 28 European countries 1995-2019.

BACKGROUND: Life expectancy (LE) is an indicator of societal progress among rapidly aging populations. In recent decades, the displacement of deaths from cardiovascular disease (CVD) and cancer have been key drivers in further extending LE on the continent, though improvements vary markedly by country, sex, and over time. This study provides a comparative overview of the age-specific contributions of CVD and cancer to increasing LE in the 27 European Union member states, plus the U.K. METHODS: Cause-by-age decompositions of national changes in LE were conducted for the years 1995-1999 and 2015-2019 based on the standard approach of multiple decrement life tables to quantify the relative impact over time. The contributions of CVD and cancer mortality changes to differences in LE were computed by sex and age for each of the 28 countries. We examine the difference between the member states before 2004 ("founding countries") and those which accessed the EU after 2004 ("A10 countries"). RESULTS: Among men, declines in CVD mortality in the founding countries of the EU were larger contributors to increasing LE over the last decades than malignant neoplasms: 2.26 years were gained by CVD declines versus 1.07 years for cancer, with 2.23 and 0.84 years gained in A10 countries, respectively. Among women in founding countries, 1.81 and 0.54 additional life years were attributable to CVD and cancer mortality declines, respectively, while in A10 countries, the corresponding values were 2.33 and 0.37 years. Lung and stomach cancer in men, and breast cancer in women were key drivers of gains in LE due to cancer overall, though rising mortality rates from lung cancer diminished the potential impact of increasing female LE in both EU founding (e.g., France, Spain, and Sweden) and A10 countries (e.g., Croatia, Hungary, and Slovenia), notably among cohorts aged 55-70 years. Over the 25 years, the LE gap between the two sets of countries narrowed from 6.22 to 5.59 years in men, and from 4.03 to 3.12 years for women, with diminishing female mortality from CVD as a determinative contributor. CONCLUSION: This study underscores the continued existence of an East-West divide in life expectancy across the EU27 + 1, evident on benchmarking the founding vs. A10 countries. In EU founding countries, continuous economic growth alongside improved health care, health promotion and protection policies have contributed to steady declines in mortality from chronic diseases, leading to increases in life expectancy. In contrast, less favourable mortality trends in the EU A10 countries indicate greater economic and health care challenges, and a failure to implement effective health policies.

Recent Mortality Patterns and Time Trends for the Major Cancers in 47 Countries Worldwide.

BACKGROUND: Most prior studies have reported cancer mortality trends across countries for specific cancer types. Herein, we examine recent patterns and trends in cancer mortality rates for the eight common forms of cancer in 47 countries across five continents (except Africa) based on the World Health Organization mortality database. METHODS: Rates were age-standardized to the 1966 Segi-Doll world population, and trends in the age-standardized rates for the most recent 10 years of data were examined using Joinpoint regression. RESULTS: Cancer-specific mortality rates vary substantially across countries, with rates of infection-related (cervix and stomach) and tobacco-related cancers (lung and esophagus) varying by 10-fold. Recent mortality rates for all major cancers decreased in most of the studied countries except lung cancer in females and liver cancer in males, where increasing rates were observed in most countries. Rates decreased or stabilized in all countries for lung cancer in men and stomach cancer in both sexes. CONCLUSIONS: The findings reinforce the importance of implementing and strengthening resource-stratified and targeted cancer prevention and control programs in all parts of the world to further reduce or halt the rising cancer burden. IMPACT: The results may inform cancer prevention and treatment strategies and in so doing, reduce the marked global cancer disparities observed today.

Lung cancer mortality in the wake of the changing smoking epidemic: a descriptive study of the global burden in 2020 and 2040.

OBJECTIVES: Lung cancer (LC) is the leading cause of cancer death in 2020, responsible for almost one in five (18.0%) deaths. This paper provides an overview of the descriptive epidemiology of LC based on national mortality estimates for 2020 from the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC), and in the context of recent tobacco control policies. DESIGN AND SETTING: For this descriptive study, age-standardised mortality rates per 100 000 person-years of LC for 185 countries by sex were obtained from the GLOBOCAN 2020 database and stratified by Human Development Index (HDI). LC deaths were projected to 2040 based on demographic changes alongside scenarios of annually increasing, stable or decreasing rates from the baseline year of 2020. RESULTS: LC mortality rates exhibited marked variations by geography and sex. Low HDI countries, many of them within sub-Saharan Africa, tend to have low levels of mortality and an upward trend in LC deaths is predicted for both sexes until 2040 according to demographic projections, irrespective of trends in rates. In very high HDI countries, including Europe, Northern America and Australia/New Zealand, there are broadly decreasing trends in men whereas in women, rates are still increasing or reaching a plateau. CONCLUSION: The current and future burden of LC in a country or region largely depends on the present trajectory of the smoking epidemic in its constituent populations, with distinct gender differences in smoking patterns, both in transitioning and transitioned countries. Further elevations in LC mortality are expected worldwide, raising important social and political questions, especially in low-income and middle-income countries.

Global burden of colorectal cancer in 2020 and 2040: incidence and mortality estimates from GLOBOCAN.

OBJECTIVE: Colorectal cancer (CRC) is the third most common cancer worldwide. The geographical and temporal burden of this cancer provides insights into risk factor prevalence and progress in cancer control strategies. We examine the current and future burden of CRC in 185 countries in 2020 and 2040. METHODS: Data on CRC cases and deaths were extracted from the GLOBOCAN database for the year 2020. Age-standardised incidence and mortality rates were calculated by sex, country, world region and Human Development Index (HDI) for 185 countries. Age-specific rates were also estimated. The predicted number of cases and deaths in 2040 were calculated based on global demographic projections by HDI. RESULTS: Over 1.9 million new CRC cases and 930 000 deaths were estimated in 2020. Incidence rates were highest in Australia/ New Zealand and European regions (40.6 per 100 000, males) and lowest in several African regions and Southern Asia (4.4 per 100 000, females). Similar patterns were observed for mortality rates, with the highest observed in Eastern Europe (20.2 per 100 000, males) and the lowest in Southern Asia (2.5 per 100 000, females). The burden of CRC is projected to increase to 3.2 million new cases and 1.6 million deaths by 2040 with most cases predicted to occur in high or very high HDI countries. CONCLUSIONS: CRC is a highly frequent cancer worldwide, and largely preventable through changes in modifiable risk factors, alongside the detection and removal of precancerous lesions. With increasing rates in transitioning countries and younger adults, there is a pressing need to better understand and act on findings to avert future cases and deaths from the disease.

An updated profile of the cancer burden, patterns and trends in Latin America and the Caribbean.

Background: Cancer is a leading cause of disease and death in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). Contemporary data on the cancer burden aims to inform effective cancer policies; this article provides an update and benchmarking of national cancer incidence and mortality estimates for the year 2020, alongside recent mortality trends in the region. Methods: The number of new cancer cases and deaths were extracted from the GLOBOCAN 2020 database developed by the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC), and mortality data over time from IARC's cancer mortality database, New cancer cases, deaths and corresponding age-standardized rates per 100,000 person-years are presented. Random fluctuations in mortality trends by country, sex and cancer site were smoothed using LOWESS regression. Findings: An estimated total of 1.5 million new cancer cases and 700,000 deaths occur annually in LAC, with corresponding incidence and mortality rates of 186.5 and 86.6 per 100,000. The most common cancers in 2020 were prostate (15%), breast (14%), colorectal (9%), lung (7%) and stomach (5%). Lung cancer remained the leading cause of cancer death (12%), though rates varied substantially between countries. The mortality trends of infectious-related cancers tended to decline in most countries, while rates of cancer types linked to westernization were mainly increasing. Assuming rates remain unchanged, the cancer burden in LAC will increase by 67% reaching 2.4 million new cases annually by 2040. Interpretation: The cancer patterns reflect important underlying sociodemographic changes occurring over the last decades. With an increasing burden anticipated over the next decades in this region, there is a need to plan oncological service provision accordingly. Funding: No external funds received.

Global burden of primary liver cancer in 2020 and predictions to 2040.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The burden of liver cancer varies across the world. Herein, we present updated estimates of the current global burden of liver cancer (incidence and mortality) and provide predictions of the number of cases/deaths to 2040. METHODS: We extracted data on primary liver cancer cases and deaths from the GLOBOCAN 2020 database, which includes 185 countries. Age-standardised incidence and mortality rates (ASRs) per 100,000 person-years were calculated. Cases and deaths up to the year 2040 were predicted based on incidence and mortality rates for 2020 and global demographic projections to 2040. RESULTS: In 2020, an estimated 905,700 people were diagnosed with, and 830,200 people died from, liver cancer globally. Global ASRs for liver cancer were 9.5 and 8.7 for new cases and deaths, respectively, per 100,000 people and were highest in Eastern Asia (17.8 new cases, 16.1 deaths), Northern Africa (15.2 new cases, 14.5 deaths), and South-Eastern Asia (13.7 new cases, 13.2 deaths). Liver cancer was among the top three causes of cancer death in 46 countries and was among the top five causes of cancer death in 90 countries. ASRs of both incidence and mortality were higher among males than females in all world regions (male:female ASR ratio ranged between 1.2-3.6). The number of new cases of liver cancer per year is predicted to increase by 55.0% between 2020 and 2040, with a possible 1.4 million people diagnosed in 2040. A predicted 1.3 million people could die from liver cancer in 2040 (56.4% more than in 2020). CONCLUSIONS: Liver cancer is a major cause of death in many countries, and the number of people diagnosed with liver cancer is predicted to rise. Efforts to reduce the incidence of preventable liver cancer should be prioritised. LAY SUMMARY: The burden of liver cancer varies across the world. Liver cancer was among the top three causes of cancer death in 46 countries and was among the top five causes of cancer death in 90 countries worldwide. We predict the number of cases and deaths will rise over the next 20 years as the world population grows. Primary liver cancer due to some causes is preventable if control efforts are prioritised and the predicted rise in cases may increase the need for resources to manage care of patients with liver cancer.

The Current Burden of Oropharyngeal Cancer: A Global Assessment Based on GLOBOCAN 2020.

BACKGROUND: Oropharyngeal cancer (OPC) is a complex disease whose etiologies, either related to risk factors such as smoking or alcohol, or linked to HPV infection, are believed to be responsible for wide gender and geographical variability. This study depicts the current burden of OPC worldwide. METHODS: Estimated OPC new cases, deaths, age-standardized rates (ASR) for both incidence and mortality in 2020 were obtained from the GLOBOCAN database for each country and across 20 UN-defined world regions by sex. The incidence-to-mortality ratio (IMR) was also estimated from ASR. RESULTS: Worldwide, 98,400 new cases and 48,100 OPC deaths were estimated in 2020, with ASR of 1.1 and 0.51 per 100,000 for incidence and mortality, respectively. ASR for both incidence and mortality were approximately four times higher in men and varied greatly across geographical regions and countries within the same region. Higher incidence was estimated in Europe, North-America, Australia, and New Zealand. Mortality was the highest in Central-East Europe, Western Europe, Melanesia, South-Central Asia, and the Caribbean. South-Central Asia, most African areas, and Central America exhibited the lowest IMR values, whereas North-America, Australia, New Zealand, and North-Europe had the highest. CONCLUSIONS: The marked geographical and gender variability in OPC incidence and mortality is likely to reflect the distribution of risk factors and the diverse prevalence of HPV-negative and HPV-positive cases. IMPACT: Findings are likely to drive future research, support the development of targeted strategies to counteract disease burden, establish priorities for prevention and treatment programs, and address inequality in access to services.

Current and future burden of breast cancer: Global statistics for 2020 and 2040.

BACKGROUND: Breast cancer is the most commonly diagnosed cancer worldwide, and its burden has been rising over the past decades. In this article, we examine and describe the global burden of breast cancer in 2020 and predictions for the year 2040. METHODS: Estimates of new female breast cancer cases and deaths in 2020 were abstracted from the GLOBOCAN database. Age-standardized incidence and mortality rates were calculated per 100,000 females by country, world region, and level of human development. Predicted cases and deaths were computed based on global demographic projections for the year 2040. RESULTS: Over 2.3 million new cases and 685,000 deaths from breast cancer occurred in 2020. Large geographic variation across countries and world regions exists, with incidence rates ranging from <40 per 100,000 females in some Asian and African countries, to over 80 per 100,000 in Australia/New Zealand, Northern America, and parts of Europe. Smaller geographical variation was observed for mortality; however, transitioning countries continue to carry a disproportionate share of breast cancer deaths relative to transitioned countries. By 2040, the burden from breast cancer is predicted to increase to over 3 million new cases and 1 million deaths every year because of population growth and ageing alone. CONCLUSION: Breast cancer is the most common cancer worldwide and continues to have a large impact on the global number of cancer deaths. Global efforts are needed to counteract its growing burden, especially in transitioning countries where incidence is rising rapidly, and mortality rates remain high.

Global patterns of non-Hodgkin lymphoma in 2020.

We evaluated the global patterns of non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL) in 2020 using the estimates of NHL incidence and mortality in 185 countries that are part of the GLOBOCAN 2020 database, developed by the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC). As well as new cases and deaths of NHL, corresponding age-standardized (world) rates (ASR) of incidence and mortality per 100 000 person-years were derived by country and world region. In 2020, an estimated 544 000 new cases of NHL were diagnosed worldwide, and approximately 260 000 people died from the disease. Eastern Asia accounted for a quarter (24.9%) of all cases, followed by Northern America (15.1%) and South-Central Asia (9.7%). Incidence rates were higher in men than in women, with similar geographical patterns. While the incidence rates were highest in Australia and New Zealand, Northern America, Northern Europe and Western Europe (>10/100 000 for both sexes combined), the highest mortality rates (>3/100 000) were found in regions in Africa, Western Asia and Oceania. The large variations and the disproportionately higher mortality in low- and middle-income countries can be related to the underlying prevalence and distribution of risk factors, and to the level of access to diagnostic and treatment facilities.

The Global Landscape of Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma and Esophageal Adenocarcinoma Incidence and Mortality in 2020 and Projections to 2040: New Estimates From GLOBOCAN 2020.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The aim of this study was to provide an overview of the burden of esophageal cancer in 185 countries in 2020 and projections for the year 2040. METHODS: Estimates of esophageal cancer cases and deaths were extracted from the GLOBOCAN database for 2020. Age-standardized incidence and mortality rates were calculated overall, by sex, histologic subtype (adenocarcinoma [AC] and squamous cell carcinoma [SCC]), country, and level of human development for 185 countries. The predicted burden of incidence and mortality in 2040 was calculated based on global demographic projections. RESULTS: Globally, there were an estimated 604,100 new cases of, and 544,100 deaths from, esophageal cancer in 2020, corresponding to age-standardized incidence and mortality rates of 6.3 and 5.6 per 100,000, respectively. Most cases were SCCs (85% [512,500 cases]) and 14% (85,700 cases) were ACs. Incidence and mortality rates were 2- to 3-fold higher in male (9.3 and 8.2, respectively) compared with female (3.6 and 3.2, respectively) individuals. Global variations in incidence and mortality were observed across countries and world regions; the highest rates occurred in Eastern Asia and Southern and Eastern Africa and the lowest occurred in Western Africa and Central America regions. If rates remain stable, 957,000 new cases (141,300 AC cases and 806,000 SCC cases) and 880,000 deaths from esophageal cancer are expected in 2040. CONCLUSIONS: These updated estimates of the global burden of esophageal cancer represent an important baseline for setting priorities in policy making and developing and accelerating cancer control initiatives to reduce the current and projected burden. Although primary prevention remains key, screening and early detection represent important components of esophageal cancer control in high-risk populations.

The current and future incidence and mortality of gastric cancer in 185 countries, 2020-40: A population-based modelling study.

Background: To examine global patterns of gastric cancer in 2020 and the projected burden in 2040. Methods: Data on primary gastric cancer were extracted from the GLOBOCAN database for the year 2020. Age-standardized incidence and mortality rates were calculated by sex, country, world region and level of human development index (HDI) for 185 countries. The predicted burden of incidence and mortality in 2040 was calculated based on demographic projections. Findings: In total, ∼1.1 million new cases and 770,000 deaths of gastric cancer were estimated in 2020. Incidence rates were on average 2-fold higher in males than females (15.8 and 7.0 per 100,000, respectively) with variation across countries. Highest incidence rates were observed in Eastern Asia for both males and females (32.5 and 13.2, respectively); males residing in Japan (48.1), Mongolia (47.2) and Korea (39.7) had the highest rates in the world. Incidence was lowest in Africa with incidence rates < 5 per 100,000. Highest mortality rates were observed in Eastern Asia for both males (21.1) and females (8.8). A lower share of deaths was observed in very high HDI countries compared to medium and low HDI countries. The annual burden of gastric cancer is predicted to increase to ∼1.8 million new cases and ∼1.3 million deaths by 2040. Interpretation: These estimates of the global burden of gastric cancer pinpoint countries and regions of high incidence and mortality in need of cancer control initiatives. Primary prevention through eradication of H. pylori and behavioural changes such as reducing salt intake, smoking, obesity, and alcohol, remains key in stomach cancer control. Funding: No direct funding was received. All authors had access to the included study data and all authors agreed with the final decision to submit for publication.

Progress in reducing premature mortality from cancer and cardiovascular disease in the former Soviet Union, 2000-19.

BACKGROUND: A reduction in non-communicable diseases premature mortality by one-third by 2030 is one of the targets of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDG3.4). We examined the mortality profiles in the Newly Independent States of the former Soviet Union (NIS) and the European Union (EU) and assessed progress in reductions of premature mortality from cancer, as compared to cardiovascular disease (CVD). METHODS: We used WHO's Global Health Estimates and GLOBOCAN 2020 to examine current mortality profiles and computed the unconditional probabilities of dying at ages 30-70 from CVD and cancer for the years 2000-19 in both sexes, using a linear extrapolation of this trend to predict whether the target of a one-third reduction, as set in 2015, would be met in 2030. RESULTS: CVD was the main cause of premature death in the NIS (43%), followed by cancer (23%), inversely from the EU with 42% cancer and 24% CVD deaths. The NIS achieved major reductions in premature CVD mortality, although the probabilities of death in 2019 remained about five times higher in the NIS compared to the EU. For cancer, mortality reductions in most NIS were quite modest, other than large declines seen in Kazakhstan (44%) and Kyrgyzstan (30%), with both on course to meet the 2030 target. CONCLUSIONS: Limited progress in cancer control in the NIS calls for policy action both in terms of structural changes towards universal health coverage, and scaling up of national cancer control plans, including a shift from opportunistic to evidence-based early detection practices.

Global patterns in testicular cancer incidence and mortality in 2020.

With 74 500 new cases worldwide in 2020, testicular cancer ranks as the 20th leading cancer type, but is the most common cancer in young men of European ancestry. While testicular cancer incidence has been rising in many populations, mortality trends, at least those in high-income settings, have been in decline since the 1970s following the introduction of platinum-based chemotherapy. To examine current incidence and mortality patterns, we extracted the new cases of, and deaths from cancers of the testis from the GLOBOCAN 2020 database. In 2020, testicular cancer was the most common cancer in men aged 15 to 44 in 62 countries worldwide. Incidence rates were highest in West-, North- and South-Europe and Oceania (age-standardised rate, ASR ≥7/100 000), followed by North America (5.6/100 000 and lowest (<2/100 000) in Asia and Africa. The mortality rates were highest in Central and South America (0.84 and 0.54 per 100 000, respectively), followed by Eastern and Southern Europe, and Western and Southern Africa. The lowest mortality rates were in Northern Europe, Northern Africa and Eastern Asia (0.16, 0.14, 0.9 per 100 000, respectively). At the country level, incidence rates varied over 100-fold, from 10/100 000 in Norway, Slovenia, Denmark and Germany to ≤0.10/100 000 in Gambia, Guinea, Liberia, Lesotho. Mortality rates were highest in Fiji, Argentina and Mexico. Our results indicate a higher mortality burden in countries undergoing economic transitions and reinforce the need for more equitable access to testicular cancer diagnosis and treatment globally.

Ovarian cancer today and tomorrow: A global assessment by world region and Human Development Index using GLOBOCAN 2020.

Ovarian cancer remains to have relatively poor prognosis particularly in low-resourced settings. It is therefore important to continually examine the burden of ovarian cancer to identify areas of disparities. Our study aims to provide an overview of the global burden of ovarian cancer using the GLOBOCAN 2020 estimates by country, world region, and Human Development Index (HDI) levels, as well as the predicted future burden by the year 2040 by HDI. Age-standardized incidence and mortality rates for ovarian cancer in 185 countries were calculated by country, world region, and for the four-tier HDI. The number of new cases and deaths were projected for the year 2040 based on demographic projections by HDI category. Approximately 314 000 new ovarian cancer cases and 207 000 deaths occurred in 2020. There were marked geographic variations in incidence rates, with the highest rates observed in European countries with very high HDI and low rates were found in African countries within the lowest HDI group. Comparable mortality rates were observed across the four-tier HDI. Relative to 2020 estimates, our projection for 2040 indicates approximately 96% and 100% increase in new ovarian cancer cases and deaths, respectively, among low HDI countries compared to 19% and 28% in very high HDI countries. Our study highlights the disproportionate current and future burden of ovarian cancer in countries with lower HDI levels, calling for global action to reduce the burden and inequality of ovarian cancer in access to quality cancer care and treatment.

The epidemiological landscape of thyroid cancer worldwide: GLOBOCAN estimates for incidence and mortality rates in 2020.

BACKGROUND: Thyroid cancer incidence rates have increased in many countries and settings; however, mortality rates have remained stable at lower rates. This epidemiological pattern has been largely attributed to an overdiagnosis effect. Timely evidence for the global epidemiological status is necessary to identify the magnitude of this problem and the areas mostly affected by it. We therefore aimed to provide an up-to-date assessment on the global distribution of thyroid cancer incidence and mortality rates in 2020. METHODS: We extracted age-standardised incidence and mortality rates per 100 000 person-years of thyroid cancer as defined by the International Classification of Diseases for Oncology 10th Revision (code C73), for 185 countries or territories by sex and 18 age groups (ie, 0-4, 5-9, …, 80-84, and ≥85 years) from the GLOBOCAN database. Both incidence and mortality estimates were presented by country and aggregated across the 20 UN-defined world regions and according to the UN's four-tier Human Development Index (ie, low, medium, high, and very high) in 2020. FINDINGS: Globally, in 2020, the age-standardised incidence rates of thyroid cancer were 10·1 per 100 000 women and 3·1 per 100 000 men, and age-standardised mortality rates were 0·5 per 100 000 women and 0·3 per 100 000 men. In both sexes, incidence rates were five times higher in high and very high Human Development Index countries than in low and medium Human Development Index countries, whereas mortality rates were relatively similar across different settings. Incidence rates in women differed by more than 15 times across world regions, with the highest incidence rates being in the Federated States of Micronesia and French Polynesia (18·5 per 100 000 women), North America (18·4 per 100 000), and east Asia (17·8 per 100 000, with South Korea reaching 45 per 100 000). Mortality rates were less than one per 100 000 in most countries and in both sexes. South Korea had the highest incidence-to-mortality rate ratio in both sexes, followed by Cyprus and Canada. INTERPRETATION: The current thyroid cancer epidemiological landscape is strongly suggestive of a large effect of overdiagnosis in many countries and settings worldwide, confirming the relevance of thyroid cancer overdiagnosis as a global public health problem. FUNDING: None.

Global Burden of Cutaneous Melanoma in 2020 and Projections to 2040.

Importance: Despite many cases being preventable, cutaneous melanoma remains the most serious skin cancer worldwide. Understanding the scale and profile of the disease is vital to concentrate and reinforce global prevention efforts. Objective: To examine global patterns of cutaneous melanoma in 2020 and to provide projected estimates of cases and deaths by 2040. Design, Setting, and Participants: This population-based study used the GLOBOCAN 2020 database for global epidemiological assessment of new cases and deaths due to invasive melanoma. Main Outcomes and Measures: Age-standardized incidence and mortality rates were calculated per 100 000 person-years by country, world region, and 4-tier level of human development. Estimated numbers of cases and deaths were calculated for the year 2040. Results: A worldwide total of 325 000 new melanoma cases (174 000 males, 151 000 females) and 57 000 deaths (32 000 males, 25 000 females) was estimated for 2020. Large geographic variations existed across countries and world regions, with the highest incidence rates among males (42 per 100 000 person-years) and females (31 per 100 000 person-years) observed in Australia/New Zealand, followed by Western Europe (19 per 100 000 person-years for males and females), North America (18 per 100 000 person-years for males, 14 per 100 000 person-years for females), and Northern Europe (17 per 100 000 person-years for males, 18 per 100 000 person-years for females). Melanoma continued to be rare in most African and Asian countries, with incidence rates commonly less than 1 per 100 000 person-years. Mortality rates peaked at 5 per 100 000 person-years in New Zealand, and geographic variations were less pronounced than for incidence. Melanoma was more frequent among males than females in most world regions. If 2020 rates continue, the burden from melanoma is estimated to increase to 510 000 new cases (a roughly 50% increase) and to 96 000 deaths (a 68% increase) by 2040. Conclusions and Relevance: This epidemiological assessment suggests that melanoma remains an important challenge to cancer control and public health globally, especially in fair-skinned populations of European descent.

National health system characteristics, breast cancer stage at diagnosis, and breast cancer mortality: a population-based analysis.

BACKGROUND: In some countries, breast cancer age-standardised mortality rates have decreased by 2-4% per year since the 1990s, but others have yet to achieve this outcome. In this study, we aimed to characterise the associations between national health system characteristics and breast cancer age-standardised mortality rate, and the degree of breast cancer downstaging correlating with national age-standardised mortality rate reductions. METHODS: In this population-based study, national age-standardised mortality rate estimates for women aged 69 years or younger obtained from GLOBOCAN 2020 were correlated with a broad panel of standardised national health system data as reported in the WHO Cancer Country Profiles 2020. These health system characteristics include health expenditure, the Universal Health Coverage Service Coverage Index (UHC Index), dedicated funding for early detection programmes, breast cancer early detection guidelines, referral systems, cancer plans, number of dedicated public and private cancer centres per 10 000 patients with cancer, and pathology services. We tested for differences between continuous variables using the non-parametric Kruskal-Wallis test, and for categorical variables using the Pearson χ2 test. Simple and multiple linear regression analyses were fitted to identify associations between health system characteristics and age-standardised breast cancer mortality rates. Data on TNM stage at diagnosis were obtained from national or subnational cancer registries, supplemented by a literature review of PubMed from 2010 to 2020. Mortality trends from 1950 to 2016 were assessed using the WHO Cancer Mortality Database. The threshold for significance was set at a p value of 0·05 or less. FINDINGS: 148 countries had complete health system data. The following variables were significantly higher in high-income countries than in low-income countries in unadjusted analyses: health expenditure (p=0·0002), UHC Index (p<0·0001), dedicated funding for early detection programmes (p=0·0020), breast cancer early detection guidelines (p<0·0001), breast cancer referral systems (p=0·0030), national cancer plans (p=0·014), cervical cancer early detection programmes (p=0·0010), number of dedicated public (p<0·0001) and private (p=0·027) cancer centres per 10 000 patients with cancer, and pathology services (p<0·0001). In adjusted multivariable regression analyses in 141 countries, two health system characteristics were significantly associated with lower age-standardised mortality rates: higher UHC Index levels (ß=-0·12, 95% CI -0·16 to -0·08) and increasing numbers of public cancer centres (ß=-0·23, -0·36 to -0·10). These findings indicate that each unit increase in the UHC Index was associated with a 0·12-unit decline in age-standardised mortality rates, and each additional public cancer centre per 10 000 patients with cancer was associated with a 0·23-unit decline in age-standardised mortality rate. Among 35 countries with available breast cancer TNM staging data, all 20 that achieved sustained mean reductions in age-standardised mortality rate of 2% or more per year for at least 3 consecutive years since 1990 had at least 60% of patients with invasive breast cancer presenting as stage I or II disease. Some countries achieved this reduction without most women having access to population-based mammographic screening. INTERPRETATION: Countries with low breast cancer mortality rates are characterised by increased levels of coverage of essential health services and higher numbers of public cancer centres. Among countries achieving sustained mortality reductions, the majority of breast cancers are diagnosed at an early stage, reinforcing the value of clinical early diagnosis programmes for improving breast cancer outcomes. FUNDING: None.