RÉSUMÉ
To explore the early predictors of post-operative recurrence and metastasis of rectal cancer, analyse the associated risk, and construct a model. Retrospective collection. Four hundred patients with rectal cancer underwent surgical resection and pathological diagnosis from September 2013 to September 2014. During the post-operative period, the patients were tested by imaging examination, serum tumour markers, and routine blood follow-up for at least 3 years. Preoperative CT examination of tumour size, lymphocyte-to-neutrophil ratio, and CEA were significant biomarkers for predicting recurrence and/or metastasis of post-operative rectal cancer. The stratified threshold of the lesion size cut-off point in CT images of patients with rectal cancer was 18.75 cm3, the cut-off point value of the lymphocyte-to-neutrophil ratio was 0.33, and the CEA cut-off point value was 16.97 ng/ml. We used the cut-off point to perform stratified survival analysis to obtain two K-M curves and conduct a log-rank test. The Cox multivariate risk regression results were as follows: preoperative CT images of lesion size, lymphocyte-to-neutrophil ratio, and CEA. The AUC of the normogram model for the prediction of post-operative recurrence and metastasis of rectal cancer is 0.939. Preoperative CT examination of tumour size can predict post-operative recurrence and metastasis of rectal cancer and can be used to analyse its risk. The lymphocyte-to-neutrophil ratio and CEA can also predict post-operative tumour recurrence and metastasis risk.