COVID-19 vaccination uptake in people with epilepsy in wales.

PURPOSE: People with epilepsy (PWE) are at increased risk of severe COVID-19. Assessing COVID-19 vaccine uptake is therefore important. We compared COVID-19 vaccination uptake for PWE in Wales with a matched control cohort. METHODS: We performed a retrospective, population, cohort study using linked, anonymised, Welsh electronic health records within the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage (SAIL) Databank (Welsh population=3.1 million).We identified PWE in Wales between 1st March 2020 and 31st December 2021 and created a control cohort using exact 5:1 matching (sex, age and socioeconomic status). We recorded 1st, 2nd and booster COVID-19 vaccinations. RESULTS: There were 25,404 adults with epilepsy (127,020 controls). 23,454 (92.3%) had a first vaccination, 22,826 (89.9%) a second, and 17,797 (70.1%) a booster. Comparative figures for controls were: 112,334 (87.8%), 109,057 (85.2%) and 79,980 (62.4%).PWE had higher vaccination rates in all age, sex and socioeconomic subgroups apart from booster uptake in older subgroups. Vaccination rates were higher in older subgroups, women and less deprived areas for both cohorts. People with intellectual disability and epilepsy had higher vaccination rates when compared with controls with intellectual disability. CONCLUSIONS: COVID-19 vaccination uptake for PWE in Wales was higher than that for a matched control group.

Did the UK's public health shielding policy protect the clinically extremely vulnerable during the COVID-19 pandemic in Wales? Results of EVITE Immunity, a linked data retrospective study.

INTRODUCTION: The UK shielding policy intended to protect people at the highest risk of harm from COVID-19 infection. We aimed to describe intervention effects in Wales at 1 year. METHODS: Retrospective comparison of linked demographic and clinical data for cohorts comprising people identified for shielding from 23 March to 21 May 2020; and the rest of the population. Health records were extracted with event dates between 23 March 2020 and 22 March 2021 for the comparator cohort and from the date of inclusion until 1 year later for the shielded cohort. RESULTS: The shielded cohort included 117,415 people, with 3,086,385 in the comparator cohort. The largest clinical categories in the shielded cohort were severe respiratory condition (35.5%), immunosuppressive therapy (25.9%) and cancer (18.6%). People in the shielded cohort were more likely to be female, aged ≥50 years, living in relatively deprived areas, care home residents and frail. The proportion of people tested for COVID-19 was higher in the shielded cohort (odds ratio [OR] 1.616; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.597-1.637), with lower positivity rate incident rate ratios 0.716 (95% CI 0.697-0.736). The known infection rate was higher in the shielded cohort (5.9% vs 5.7%). People in the shielded cohort were more likely to die (OR 3.683; 95% CI: 3.583-3.786), have a critical care admission (OR 3.339; 95% CI: 3.111-3.583), hospital emergency admission (OR 2.883; 95% CI: 2.837-2.930), emergency department attendance (OR 1.893; 95% CI: 1.867-1.919) and common mental disorder (OR 1.762; 95% CI: 1.735-1.789). CONCLUSION: Deaths and healthcare utilisation were higher amongst shielded people than the general population, as would be expected in the sicker population. Differences in testing rates, deprivation and pre-existing health are potential confounders; however, lack of clear impact on infection rates raises questions about the success of shielding and indicates that further research is required to fully evaluate this national policy intervention.

Healthcare contacts with self-harm during COVID-19: An e-cohort whole-population-based study using individual-level linked routine electronic health records in Wales, UK, 2016-March 2021.

INTRODUCTION: Reduced rates of help seeking by those who self-harmed during the COVID-19 pandemic have been reported. OBJECTIVES: To understand changes in healthcare service contacts for self-harm during the COVID-19 pandemic across primary, emergency and secondary care. METHODS: This retrospective cohort study used routine electronic healthcare data for Wales, United Kingdom, from 2016 to March 14, 2021. Population-based data from primary care, emergency departments and hospital admissions were linked at individual-level. All Welsh residents aged ≥10 years over the study period were included in the study. Primary, emergency and secondary care contacts with self-harm at any time between 2016 and March 14, 2021 were identified. Outcomes were counts, incidence, prevalence and proportion of self-harm contacts relative to all contacts in each and all settings, as well as the proportion of people contacting one or more settings with self-harm. Weekly trends were modelled using generalised estimated equations, with differences between 2020 (to March 2021) and comparison years 2016-2018 (to March 2017-2019) quantified using difference in differences, from which mean rate of odds ratios (µROR) across years was reported. RESULTS: The study included 3,552,210 individuals over the study period. Self-harm contacts reduced across services in March and December 2020 compared to previous years. Primary care contacts with self-harm reduced disproportionately compared to non-self-harm contacts (µROR = 0.7, p<0.05), while their proportion increased in emergency departments during April 2020 (µROR = 1.3, p<0.05 in 2/3 comparison years) and hospital admissions during April-May 2020 (µROR = 1.2, p<0.05 in 2/3 comparison years). Despite this, those who self-harmed in April 2020 were more likely to be seen in primary care than other settings compared to previous years (µROR = 1.2, p<0.05). A lower proportion of those with self-harm contacts in emergency departments were subsequently admitted to hospital in December 2020 compared to previous years (µROR = 0.5, p<0.05). CONCLUSIONS: These findings suggest that those who self-harmed during the COVID-19 pandemic may have been less likely to seek help, and those who did so faced more stringent criteria for admission. Communications encouraging those who self-harm to seek help during pandemics may be beneficial. However, this needs to be supported by maintained provision of mental health services.

First-dose ChAdOx1 and BNT162b2 COVID-19 vaccines and thrombocytopenic, thromboembolic and hemorrhagic events in Scotland.

Reports of ChAdOx1 vaccine-associated thrombocytopenia and vascular adverse events have led to some countries restricting its use. Using a national prospective cohort, we estimated associations between exposure to first-dose ChAdOx1 or BNT162b2 vaccination and hematological and vascular adverse events using a nested incident-matched case-control study and a confirmatory self-controlled case series (SCCS) analysis. An association was found between ChAdOx1 vaccination and idiopathic thrombocytopenic purpura (ITP) (0-27 d after vaccination; adjusted rate ratio (aRR) = 5.77, 95% confidence interval (CI), 2.41-13.83), with an estimated incidence of 1.13 (0.62-1.63) cases per 100,000 doses. An SCCS analysis confirmed that this was unlikely due to bias (RR = 1.98 (1.29-3.02)). There was also an increased risk for arterial thromboembolic events (aRR = 1.22, 1.12-1.34) 0-27 d after vaccination, with an SCCS RR of 0.97 (0.93-1.02). For hemorrhagic events 0-27 d after vaccination, the aRR was 1.48 (1.12-1.96), with an SCCS RR of 0.95 (0.82-1.11). A first dose of ChAdOx1 was found to be associated with small increased risks of ITP, with suggestive evidence of an increased risk of arterial thromboembolic and hemorrhagic events. The attenuation of effect found in the SCCS analysis means that there is the potential for overestimation of the reported results, which might indicate the presence of some residual confounding or confounding by indication. Public health authorities should inform their jurisdictions of these relatively small increased risks associated with ChAdOx1. No positive associations were seen between BNT162b2 and thrombocytopenic, thromboembolic and hemorrhagic events.

Long-term trends in critical care admissions in Wales*.

As national populations age, demands on critical care services are expected to increase. In many healthcare settings, longitudinal trends indicate rising numbers and proportions of patients admitted to ICU who are older; elsewhere, including some parts of the UK, a decrease has raised concerns with regard to rationing according to age. Our aim was to investigate admission trends in Wales, where critical care capacity has not risen in the last decade. We used the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage Databank to identify and characterise critical care admissions in patients aged ≥ 18 years from 1 January 2008 to 31 December 2017. We categorised 85,629 ICU admissions as youngest (18-64 years), older (65-79 years) and oldest (≥ 80 years). The oldest group accounted for 15% of admissions, the older age group 39% and the youngest group 46%. Relative to the national population, the incidence of admission rates per 10,000 population in the oldest group decreased significantly over the study period from 91.5/10,000 in 2008 to 77.5/10,000 (a relative decrease of 15%), and among the older group from 89.2/10,000 in 2008 to 75.3/10,000 in 2017 (a relative decrease of 16%). We observed significant decreases in admissions with high comorbidity (modified Charlson comorbidity index); increases in the proportion of older patients admitted who were considered 'fit' rather than frail (electronic frailty index); and decreases in admissions with a medical diagnosis. In contrast to other healthcare settings, capacity constraints and surgical imperatives appear to have contributed to a relative exclusion of older patients presenting with acute medical illness.

Impact of a physician - critical care practitioner pre-hospital service in Wales on trauma survival: a retrospective analysis of linked registry data.

The Emergency Medical Retrieval and Transfer Service for Wales launched in 2015. This service delivers senior pre-hospital doctors and advanced critical care practitioners to the scene of time-critical life- and limb-threatening incidents to provide advanced decision-making and pre-hospital clinical care. The impact of the service on 30-day mortality was evaluated retrospectively using a data linkage system. The study included patients who sustained moderate-to-severe blunt traumatic injuries (injury severity score ≥ 9) between 27 April 2015 and 30 November 2018. The association between pre-hospital management by the Emergency Medical Retrieval and Transfer Service and 30-day mortality was assessed using multivariable logistic regression. In total, data from 4035 patients were analysed, of which 412 (10%) were treated by the Emergency Medical Retrieval and Transfer Service. A greater proportion of patients treated by the Emergency Medical Retrieval and Transfer Service had an injury severity score ≥ 16 and Glasgow coma scale ≤ 12 (288 (70%) vs. 1435 (40%) and 126 (31%) vs. 325 (9%), respectively). The unadjusted 30-day mortality rate was 11.7% for patients managed by the Emergency Medical Retrieval and Transfer Service compared with 9.6% for patients managed by standard pre-hospital care services. However, after adjustment for differences in case-mix, the 30-day mortality rate for patients treated by the Emergency Medical Retrieval and Transfer Service was 37% lower (adjusted odds ratio 0.63 (95%CI 0.41-0.97); p = 0.037). The introduction of an emergency medical retrieval service was associated with a reduction in 30-day mortality for patients with blunt traumatic injury.

Adverse childhood experiences during childhood and academic attainment at age 7 and 11 years: an electronic birth cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: Adverse childhood experiences (ACEs) have a negative impact on childhood health, but their impact on education outcomes is less well known. We investigated whether or not ACEs were associated with reduced educational attainment at age 7 and 11 years. STUDY DESIGN: The study design used in the study is a population-based electronic cohort study. METHODS: We analysed data from a total population electronic child cohort in Wales, UK. ACEs (exposures) were living with an adult household member with any of (i) serious mental illness, (ii) common mental disorder (CMD), (iii) an alcohol problem; (iv) child victimisation, (v) death of a household member and (vi) low family income. We used multilevel logistic regression to model exposure to these ACEs and not attaining the expected level at statutory education assessments, Key Stage (KS) 1 and KS2 separately, adjusted for known confounders including perinatal, socio-economic and school factors. RESULTS: There were 107,479 and 43,648 children included in the analysis, with follow-up to 6-7 years (KS1) and 10-11 years (KS2), respectively. An increased risk of not attaining the expected level at KS1 was associated with living with adult household members with CMD (adjusted odds ratio [aOR]: 1.13 [95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.09-1.17]) or an alcohol problem (adjusted odds ratio [aOR]: 1.16 [95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.10-1.22]), childhood victimisation (adjusted odds ratio [aOR]: 1.58 [95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.37-1.82]), death of a household member (adjusted odds ratio [aOR]: 1.14 [95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.04-1.25]) and low family income (adjusted odds ratio [aOR]: 1.92 [95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.84-2.01]). Similar results were observed for KS2. Children with multiple adversities had substantially increased odds of not attaining the expected level at each educational assessment. CONCLUSION: The educational potential of many children may not be achieved due to exposure to adversity in childhood. Affected children who come in to contact with services should have relevant information shared between health and care services, and schools to initiate and facilitate a coordinated approach towards providing additional support and help for them to fulfil their educational potential, and subsequent economic and social participation.

The Secure Anonymised Information Linkage databank Dementia e-cohort (SAIL-DeC).

INTRODUCTION: The rising burden of dementia is a global concern, and there is a need to study its causes, natural history and outcomes. The Secure Anonymised Information Linkage (SAIL) Databank contains anonymised, routinely-collected healthcare data for the population of Wales, UK. It has potential to be a valuable resource for dementia research owing to its size, long follow-up time and prospective collection of data during clinical care. OBJECTIVES: We aimed to apply reproducible methods to create the SAIL dementia e-cohort (SAIL-DeC). We created SAIL-DeC with a view to maximising its utility for a broad range of research questions whilst minimising duplication of effort for researchers. METHODS: SAIL contains individual-level, linked primary care, hospital admission, mortality and demographic data. Data are currently available until 2018 and future updates will extend participant follow-up time. We included participants who were born between 1st January 1900 and 1st January 1958 and for whom primary care data were available. We applied algorithms consisting of International Classification of Diseases (versions 9 and 10) and Read (version 2) codes to identify participants with and without all-cause dementia and dementia subtypes. We also created derived variables for comorbidities and risk factors. RESULTS: From 4.4 million unique participants in SAIL, 1.2 million met the cohort inclusion criteria, resulting in 18.8 million person-years of follow-up. Of these, 129,650 (10%) developed all-cause dementia, with 77,978 (60%) having dementia subtype codes. Alzheimer's disease was the most common subtype diagnosis (62%). Among the dementia cases, the median duration of observation time was 14 years. CONCLUSION: We have created a generalisable, national dementia e-cohort, aimed at facilitating epidemiological dementia research.

The association of smoking and socioeconomic status on cutaneous melanoma: a population-based, data-linkage, case-control study.

BACKGROUND: Previous studies have identified an inverse association between melanoma and smoking; however, data from population-based studies are scarce. OBJECTIVES: To determine the association between smoking and socioeconomic (SES) on the risk of development of melanoma. Furthermore, we sought to determine the implications of smoking and SES on survival. METHODS: We conducted a population-based case-control study. Cases were identified from the Welsh Cancer Intelligence and Surveillance Unit (WCISU) during 2000-2015 and controls from the general population. Smoking and SES were obtained from data linkage with other national databases. The association of smoking status and SES on the incidence of melanoma were assessed using binary logistic regression. Multivariate survival analysis was performed on a melanoma cohort using a Cox proportional hazard model using survival as the outcome. RESULTS: During 2000-2015, 9636 patients developed melanoma. Smoking data were obtained for 7124 (73·9%) of these patients. There were 26 408 controls identified from the general population. Smoking was inversely associated with melanoma incidence [odds ratio (OR) 0·70, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0·65-0·76]. Smoking was associated with an increased overall mortality [hazard ratio (HR) 1·30, 95% CI 1·09-1·55], but not associated with melanoma-specific mortality. Patients with higher SES had an increased association with melanoma incidence (OR 1·58, 95% CI 1·44-1·73). Higher SES was associated with an increased chance of both overall (HR 0·67, 95% CI 0·56-0·81) and disease-specific survival (HR 0·69, 95% CI 0·53-0·90). CONCLUSIONS: Our study has demonstrated that smoking appeared to be associated with reduced incidence of melanoma. Although smoking increases overall mortality, no association was observed with melanoma-specific mortality. Further work is required to determine if there is a biological mechanism underlying this relationship or an alternative explanation, such as survival bias. What's already known about this topic? Previous studies have been contradictory with both negative and positive associations between smoking and the incidence of melanoma reported. Previous studies have either been limited by publication bias because of selective reporting or underpowered. What does this study add? Our large study identified an inverse association between smoking status and melanoma incidence. Although smoking status was negatively associated with overall disease survival, no significant association was noted in melanoma-specific survival. Socioeconomic status remains closely associated with melanoma. Although higher socioeconomic populations are more likely to develop the disease, patients with lower socioeconomic status continue to have a worse prognosis.

Electronic Longitudinal Alcohol Study in Communities (ELAStiC) Wales - protocol for platform development.

INTRODUCTION: Excessive alcohol consumption has adverse effects on health and there is a recognised need for the longitudinal analysis of population data to improve our understanding of the patterns of alcohol use, harms to consumers and those in their immediate environment. The UK has a number of linkable, longitudinal databases that if assembled properly could support valuable research on this topic. AIMS AND OBJECTIVES: This paper describes the development of a broad set of cross-linked cohorts, e-cohorts, surveys and linked electronic healthcare records (EHRs) to construct an alcohol-specific analytical platform in the United Kingdom using datasets on the population of Wales.The objective of this paper is to provide a description of existing key datasets integrated with existing, routinely collected electronic health data on a secure platform, and relevant derived variables to enable population-based research on alcohol-related harm in Wales. We illustrate our use of these data with some exemplar research questions that are currently under investigation. METHODS: Record-linkage of routine and observational datasets. Routine data includes hospital admissions, general practice, and cohorts specific to children. Two observational studies were included. Routine socioeconomic descriptors and mortality data were also linked. CONCLUSION: We described a record-linked, population-based research protocol for alcohol related harm on a secure platform. As the datasets used here are available in many countries, ELAStiC provides a template for setting up similar initiatives in other countries. We have also defined a number of alcohol specific variables using routinely-collected available data that can be used in other epidemiological studies into alcohol related outcomes. With over 10 years of longitudinal data, it will help to understand alcohol-related disease and health trajectories across the lifespan.

A Profile of the SAIL Databank on the UK Secure Research Platform.

BACKGROUND: The Secure Anonymised Information Linkage (SAIL) Databank is a national data safe haven of de identified datasets principally about the population of Wales, made available in anonymised form to researchers across the world. It was established to enable the vast arrays of data collected about individuals in the course of health and other public service delivery to be made available to answer important questions that could not otherwise be addressed without prohibitive effort. The SAIL Databank is the bedrock of other funded centres relying on the data for research. APPROACH: SAIL is a data repository surrounded by a suite of physical, technical and procedural control measures embodying a proportionate privacy-by-design governance model, informed by public engagement, to safeguard the data and facilitate data utility. SAIL operates on the UK Secure Research Platform (SeRP), which is a customisable technology and analysis platform. Researchers access anonymised data via this secure research environment, from which results can be released following scrutiny for disclosure risk. SAIL data are being used in multiple research areas to evaluate the impact of health and social exposures and policy interventions. DISCUSSION: Lessons learned and their applications include: managing evolving legislative and regulatory requirements; employing multiple, tiered security mechanisms; working hard to increase analytical capacity efficiency; and developing a multi-faceted programme of public engagement. Further work includes: incorporating new data types; enabling alternative means of data access; and developing further efficiencies across our operations. CONCLUSION: SAIL represents an ongoing programme of work to develop and maintain an extensive, whole population data resource for research. Its privacy-by-design model and UK SeRP technology have received international acclaim, and we continually endeavour to demonstrate trustworthiness to support data provider assurance and public acceptability in data use. We strive for further improvement and continue a mutual learning process with our contemporaries in this rapidly developing field.

Defining sepsis on the wards: results of a multi-centre point-prevalence study comparing two sepsis definitions.

Our aim was to prospectively determine the predictive capabilities of SEPSIS-1 and SEPSIS-3 definitions in the emergency departments and general wards. Patients with National Early Warning Score (NEWS) of 3 or above and suspected or proven infection were enrolled over a 24-h period in 13 Welsh hospitals. The primary outcome measure was mortality within 30 days. Out of the 5422 patients screened, 431 fulfilled inclusion criteria and 380 (88%) were recruited. Using the SEPSIS-1 definition, 212 patients had sepsis. When using the SEPSIS-3 definitions with Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score ≥ 2, there were 272 septic patients, whereas with quickSOFA score ≥ 2, 50 patients were identified. For the prediction of primary outcome, SEPSIS-1 criteria had a sensitivity (95%CI) of 65% (54-75%) and specificity of 47% (41-53%); SEPSIS-3 criteria had a sensitivity of 86% (76-92%) and specificity of 32% (27-38%). SEPSIS-3 and SEPSIS-1 definitions were associated with a hazard ratio (95%CI) 2.7 (1.5-5.6) and 1.6 (1.3-2.5), respectively. Scoring system discrimination evaluated by receiver operating characteristic curves was highest for Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score (0.69 (95%CI 0.63-0.76)), followed by NEWS (0.58 (0.51-0.66)) (p < 0.001). Systemic inflammatory response syndrome criteria (0.55 (0.49-0.61)) and quickSOFA score (0.56 (0.49-0.64)) could not predict outcome. The SEPSIS-3 definition identified patients with the highest risk. Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score and NEWS were better predictors of poor outcome. The Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score appeared to be the best tool for identifying patients with high risk of death and sepsis-induced organ dysfunction.

Suicide following acute admissions for physical illnesses across England and Wales.

BACKGROUND: The study aim was to establish and quantify suicide risk following acute admissions for all major physical illnesses, for confirmatory purposes, from two independent information sources from different countries. METHODS: Record linkage of inpatient and death certificate data for 11 004 389 acute admissions for physical illnesses in England and 713 496 in Wales. The main outcome measure was standardised mortality ratios (SMRs) for suicide at 1 year following discharge from hospital. RESULTS: There were 1781 suicides within 1 year of discharge in England (SMR = 1.7; 95% = 1.6-1.8) and 131 in Wales (SMR = 2.0; 1.7-2.3). Of 48 major physical illnesses that were associated with at least eight suicides in either country, there was high consistent suicide mortality (significant SMR >3) in both countries for constipation (SMR = 4.1 in England, 7.5 in Wales), gastritis (4.4 and 4.9) and upper gastrointestinal bleeding (3.4 and 4.5). There was high suicide mortality in one country for alcoholic liver disease, other liver disease and chronic pancreatitis; for epilepsy and Parkinson's disease; for diabetes, hypoglycaemia and hypo-osmolality & hyponatraemia; and for pneumonia, back pain and urinary tract infections. CONCLUSIONS: There is little or no increased suicide mortality following acute admissions for most physical illnesses. Much of the increased suicide mortality relates to gastrointestinal disorders that are often alcohol related or specific chronic conditions, which may be linked to side effects from certain therapeutic medications. Acute hospital admissions for physical illnesses may therefore provide an opportunity for targeted suicide prevention among people with certain conditions, particularly alcohol related disorders.

Weekend admission and mortality for gastrointestinal disorders across England and Wales.

BACKGROUND: Little has been reported on mortality following admissions at weekends for many gastrointestinal (GI) disorders. The aim was to establish whether GI disorders are susceptible to increased mortality following unscheduled admission on weekends compared with weekdays. METHODS: Record linkage was undertaken of national administrative inpatient and mortality data for people in England and Wales who were hospitalized as an emergency for one of 19 major GI disorders. RESULTS: The study included 2 254 701 people in England and 155 464 in Wales. For 11 general surgical and medical GI disorders there were little, or no, significant weekend effects on mortality at 30 days in either country. There were large consistent weekend effects in both countries for severe liver disease (England: 26·2 (95 per cent c.i. 21·1 to 31·6) per cent; Wales: 32·0 (12·4 to 55·1 per cent) and GI cancer (England: 21·8 (19·1 to 24·5) per cent; Wales: 25·0 (15·0 to 35·9) per cent), which were lower in patients managed by surgeons. Admission rates were lower at weekends than on weekdays, most strongly for severe liver disease (by 43·3 per cent in England and 51·4 per cent in Wales) and GI cancer (by 44·6 and 52·8 per cent respectively). Both mortality and the weekend mortality effect for GI cancer were lower for patients managed by surgeons. DISCUSSION: There is little, or no, evidence of a weekend mortality effect for most major general surgical or medical GI disorders, but large weekend effects for GI cancer and severe liver disease. Lower admission rates at weekends indicate more severe cases. The findings for severe liver disease may suggest a lack of specialist hepatological resources. For cancers, reduced availability of end-of-life care in the community at weekends may be the cause.

Effects of an air pollution personal alert system on health service usage in a high-risk general population: a quasi-experimental study using linked data.

BACKGROUND: There is no evidence to date on whether an intervention alerting people to high levels of pollution is effective in reducing health service utilisation. We evaluated alert accuracy and the effect of a targeted personal air pollution alert system, airAware, on emergency hospital admissions, emergency department attendances, general practitioner contacts and prescribed medications. METHODS: Quasi-experimental study describing accuracy of alerts compared with pollution triggers; and comparing relative changes in healthcare utilisation in the intervention group to those who did not sign-up. Participants were people diagnosed with asthma, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) or coronary heart disease, resident in an industrial area of south Wales and registered patients at 1 of 4 general practices. Longitudinal anonymised record linked data were modelled for participants and non-participants, adjusting for differences between groups. RESULTS: During the 2-year intervention period alerts were correctly issued on 208 of 248 occasions; sensitivity was 83.9% (95% CI 78.8% to 87.9%) and specificity 99.5% (95% CI 99.3% to 99.6%). The intervention was associated with a 4-fold increase in admissions for respiratory conditions (incidence rate ratio (IRR) 3.97; 95% CI 1.59 to 9.93) and a near doubling of emergency department attendance (IRR=1.89; 95% CI 1.34 to 2.68). CONCLUSIONS: The intervention was associated with increased emergency admissions for respiratory conditions. While findings may be context specific, evidence from this evaluation questions the benefits of implementing near real-time personal pollution alert systems for high-risk individuals.

Improved and standardized method for assessing years lived with disability after injury.

OBJECTIVE: To develop a standardized method for calculating years lived with disability (YLD) after injury. METHODS: The method developed consists of obtaining data on injury cases seen in emergency departments as well as injury-related hospital admissions, using the EUROCOST system to link the injury cases to disability information and employing empirical data to describe functional outcomes in injured patients. FINDINGS: Overall, 87 weights and proportions for 27 injury diagnoses involving lifelong consequences were included in the method. Almost all of the injuries investigated (96-100%) could be assigned to EUROCOST categories. The mean number of YLD per case of injury varied with the country studied. Use of the novel method resulted in estimated burdens of injury that were 3 to 8 times higher, in terms of YLD, than the corresponding estimates produced using the conventional methods employed in global burden of disease studies, which employ disability-adjusted life years. CONCLUSION: The novel method for calculating YLD after injury can be applied in different settings, overcomes some limitations of the method used to calculate the global burden of disease, and allows more accurate estimates of the population burden of injury.

Birth outcomes following treatment for precancerous changes to the cervix: a population-based record linkage study.

OBJECTIVE: To examine whether treatments for precancerous changes to the cervix are associated with adverse birth outcomes in subsequent pregnancies. DESIGN: Population-based retrospective cohort study using electronic linkage of data from the Welsh cervical screening programme and a national routine child health database. SETTING: Wales. POPULATION: A total of 174,325 women aged 20-39 years who received cervical screening between April 2001 and March 2004. METHODS: Logistic regression was used to compare the odds of each birth outcome between women who had negative cervical smears and women who received either colposcopy ± punch biopsy only or colposcopy and excisional or ablative treatments, adjusted for confounding factors (e.g. age, social deprivation and smoking). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Preterm birth (before 37, 32 and 28 weeks of gestation), and low birthweight (<2500 g). RESULTS: Compared with women who had negative cervical smears, the odds ratio for preterm birth (<37 weeks) was significantly increased in women who had colposcopy only (adjusted odds ratio 1.54, 95% CI 1.32-1.80) and single excisional treatment (adjusted odds ratio 1.77, 95% CI 1.47-2.13). Similar results were observed for preterm birth at <32 weeks of gestation. There was no increased risk of preterm birth or low birthweight for women who had treatment compared with women who had colposcopy only. CONCLUSION: Women who were referred for colposcopy had an increased risk of preterm births regardless of whether or not they received treatment to the cervix. This increased risk could be the result of common risk factors for abnormal smears and preterm birth.

Use of a patient linked data warehouse to facilitate diabetes trial recruitment from primary care.

Recruitment into clinical trials from primary care may be difficult. Our aim was to use the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage (SAIL) databank to identify potential participants for two factitious trials. We identified 284 and 711 participants for each study (population=250,086). This method appears promising in identifying trial participants.

Social health outcomes following thermal injuries: a retrospective matched cohort study.

INTRODUCTION: Over 50% of children admitted with burns are aged under 3 years. US studies suggest that up to 26% of childhood burns are non-accidental, although UK reports are lower (1-16%). OBJECTIVES: To determine the social health outcomes of burned children as regards the number of children abused, neglected or "in need" before the age of 6 years compared with matched controls. METHODS: A retrospective matched cohort study. 145 children aged under 3 years admitted for burns in 1994-1997 were matched with controls for sex, age and enumeration district and followed up until 2003. Electronic routine databases provided study data on local authority care episodes and Social Services referrals by age 6 years. RESULTS: 89.0% of cases had accidental burns and four cases (2.8%) had non-accidental burns. No case was attributed to neglect. By their sixth birthday cases were statistically more likely to have been referred to Social Services with 14 (9.7%) of the burned children having been abused or neglected versus two (1.4%) controls (95% CI 0.030 to 0.13, p = 0.004). Forty six (32%) cases versus 26 (18%) controls were defined as "in need" (95% CI 0.047 to 0.23, p = 0.006). CONCLUSION: Although most burns were deemed accidental, 2.8% were categorised as non-accidental at presentation. Almost a third of the burned children went on to be "in need". Children with a burn appear to be at higher risk of further abuse or neglect compared with controls. A burn therefore could be a surrogate marker indicating need for closer supervision and follow-up by professionals.