Associations of Epigenetic Age Estimators With Cognitive Function Trajectories in the Women's Health Initiative Memory Study.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Epigenetic age estimators indicating faster/slower biological aging vs chronological age independently associate with several age-related outcomes; however, longitudinal associations with cognitive function are understudied. We examined associations of epigenetic age estimators with cognitive function measured annually. METHODS: This longitudinal study consisted of older women enrolled in the Women's Health Initiative Memory Study with DNA methylation (DNAm) collected at baseline (1995-1998) from 3 ancillary studies and were followed up to 13 years. Global cognitive function was measured annually by Modified Mini-Mental State Examination (3MS; baseline-2007) and by modified Telephone Interview for Cognitive Status (TICS-m, 2008-2021). We calculated 5 epigenetic age estimators: extrinsic AgeAccel, intrinsic AgeAccel, AgeAccelPheno, AgeAccelGrim2, Dunedin Pace of Aging Calculated From the Epigenome (DunedinPACE), and AgeAccelGrim2 components (DNA-based plasma protein surrogates). We estimated longitudinal epigenetic age estimator-cognitive function associations using linear mixed-effects models containing age, education, race or ethnicity, and subsequently alcohol, smoking, body mass index, and comorbidities. We examined effect modification by APOE ε4 carriage. RESULTS: A total of 795 participants were enrolled. The mean baseline age was 70.8 ± 4 years (10.7% Black, 3.9% Hispanic or Latina, 85.4% White), A 1-SD (0.12) increment in DunedinPACE associated with faster annual declines in TICS-m scores in minimally adjusted (ß = -0.118, 95% CI -0.202 to -0.034; p = 0.0006) and fully adjusted (ß = -0.123, 95% CI -0.211 to -0.036; p = 0.006) models. AgeAccelPheno associated with faster annual declines in TICS-m with minimal adjustment (ß = -0.091, 95% CI -0.176 to -0.006; p = 0.035) but not with full adjustment. No other epigenetic age estimators associated with changes in 3MS or TICS-m. Higher values of DNAm-based surrogates of growth differentiation factor 15, beta-2 microglobulin, Cystatin C, tissue inhibitor metalloproteinase 1, and adrenomedullin associated with faster annual declines in 3MS and TICS-m. Higher DNAm log A1c associated with faster annual declines in TICS-m only. DunedinPACE associated with faster annual declines in 3MS among APOE ε4 carriers but not among noncarriers (p-interaction = 0.020). DISCUSSION: Higher DunedinPACE associated with faster declines in TICS-m and 3MS scores among APOE ε4 carriers. DunedinPACE may help identify older women at risk of future cognitive decline. Limitations include the ancillary studies that collected epigenetic data not designed to study epigenetics and cognitive function. We examined epigenetic age estimators with global cognitive function and not specific cognitive domains. Findings may not generalize to men and more diverse populations.

The association between reproductive history and abdominal adipose tissue among postmenopausal women: results from the Women's Health Initiative.

STUDY QUESTION: What is the association between reproductive health history (e.g. age at menarche, menopause, reproductive lifespan) with abdominal adiposity in postmenopausal women? SUMMARY ANSWER: Higher visceral adipose tissue (VAT) and subcutaneous adipose tissue (SAT) tissue levels were observed among women with earlier menarche, earlier menopause, and greater parity. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY: Postmenopausal women are predisposed to accumulation of VAT and SAT. Reproductive health variables are known predictors of overall obesity status in women, defined by BMI. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION: This study is a secondary analysis of data collected from the baseline visit of the Women's Health Initiative (WHI). The WHI is a large prospective study of postmenopausal women, including both a randomized trial and observational study. There were 10 184 women included in this analysis. PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS: Data were collected from a reproductive health history questionnaire, dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry scans, and anthropometric measures at WHI baseline. Reproductive history was measured via self-report, and included age at menarche, variables related to pregnancy, and age at menopause. Reproductive lifespan was calculated as age at menopause minus age at menarche. Statistical analyses included descriptive analyses and multivariable linear regression models to examine the association between reproductive history with VAT, SAT, total body fat, and BMI. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE: Women who reported early menarche (<10 years) or early menopause (<40 years) had the highest levels of VAT. Adjusted multivariable linear regression results demonstrate women who experienced menarche >15 years had 23 cm2 less VAT (95% CI: -31.4, -14.4) and 47 cm2 less SAT (95% CI: -61.8, -33.4) than women who experienced menarche at age 10 years or earlier. A similar pattern was observed for age at menopause: compared to women who experienced menopause <40 years, menopause at 50-55 years was associated with 19.3 cm2 (95% CI: -25.4, -13.3) less VAT and 27.4 cm2 (-29.6, 10.3) less SAT. High parity (>3 pregnancies) was also associated with VAT and SAT. For example, adjusted beta coefficients for VAT were 8.36 (4.33, 12.4) and 17.9 (12.6, 23.2) comparing three to four pregnancies with the referent, one to two pregnancies. LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION: The WHI reproductive health history questionnaire may be subject to poor recall owing to a long look-back window. Residual confounding may be present given lack of data on early life characteristics, such as maternal and pre-menarche characteristics. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS: This study contributes to our understanding of reproductive lifespan, including menarche and menopause, as an important predictor of late-life adiposity in women. Reproductive health has also been recognized as a sentinel marker for chronic disease in late life. Given established links between adiposity and cardiometabolic outcomes, this research has implications for future research, clinical practice, and public health policy that makes use of reproductive health history as an opportunity for chronic disease prevention. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S): HRB and AOO are supported by the National Institute of Health National Institute of Aging (R01AG055018-04). JWB reports royalties from 'ACSM'S Body Composition Assessment Book' and consulting fees from the WHI. The remaining authors have no competing interests to declare. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: N/A.

Proteome-wide association study using cis and trans variants and applied to blood cell and lipid-related traits in the Women's Health Initiative study.

In most Proteome-Wide Association Studies (PWAS), variants near the protein-coding gene (±1 Mb), also known as cis single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), are used to predict protein levels, which are then tested for association with phenotypes. However, proteins can be regulated through variants outside of the cis region. An intermediate GWAS step to identify protein quantitative trait loci (pQTL) allows for the inclusion of trans SNPs outside the cis region in protein-level prediction models. Here, we assess the prediction of 540 proteins in 1002 individuals from the Women's Health Initiative (WHI), split equally into a GWAS set, an elastic net training set, and a testing set. We compared the testing r2 between measured and predicted protein levels using this proposed approach, to the testing r2 using only cis SNPs. The two methods usually resulted in similar testing r2, but some proteins showed a significant increase in testing r2 with our method. For example, for cartilage acidic protein 1, the testing r2 increased from 0.101 to 0.351. We also demonstrate reproducible findings for predicted protein association with lipid and blood cell traits in WHI participants without proteomics data and in UK Biobank utilizing our PWAS weights.

Discovery and validation of plasma, saliva and multi-fluid plasma-saliva metabolomic scores predicting insulin resistance and diabetes progression or regression among Puerto Rican adults.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Many studies have examined the relationship between plasma metabolites and type 2 diabetes progression, but few have explored saliva and multi-fluid metabolites. METHODS: We used LC/MS to measure plasma (n=1051) and saliva (n=635) metabolites among Puerto Rican adults from the San Juan Overweight Adults Longitudinal Study. We used elastic net regression to identify plasma, saliva and multi-fluid plasma-saliva metabolomic scores predicting baseline HOMA-IR in a training set (n=509) and validated these scores in a testing set (n=340). We used multivariable Cox proportional hazards models to estimate HRs for the association of baseline metabolomic scores predicting insulin resistance with incident type 2 diabetes (n=54) and prediabetes (characterised by impaired glucose tolerance, impaired fasting glucose and/or high HbA1c) (n=130) at 3 years, along with regression from prediabetes to normoglycaemia (n=122), adjusting for traditional diabetes-related risk factors. RESULTS: Plasma, saliva and multi-fluid plasma-saliva metabolomic scores predicting insulin resistance included highly weighted metabolites from fructose, tyrosine, lipid and amino acid metabolism. Each SD increase in the plasma (HR 1.99 [95% CI 1.18, 3.38]; p=0.01) and multi-fluid (1.80 [1.06, 3.07]; p=0.03) metabolomic scores was associated with higher risk of type 2 diabetes. The saliva metabolomic score was associated with incident prediabetes (1.48 [1.17, 1.86]; p=0.001). All three metabolomic scores were significantly associated with lower likelihood of regressing from prediabetes to normoglycaemia in models adjusting for adiposity (HRs 0.72 for plasma, 0.78 for saliva and 0.72 for multi-fluid), but associations were attenuated when adjusting for lipid and glycaemic measures. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: The plasma metabolomic score predicting insulin resistance was more strongly associated with incident type 2 diabetes than the saliva metabolomic score. Only the saliva metabolomic score was associated with incident prediabetes.

Ductal carcinoma in situ and cause-specific mortality among younger and older postmenopausal women: the Women's Health Initiative.

BACKGROUND: Whether DCIS is associated with higher breast cancer-specific and all-cause mortality is unclear with few studies in older women. Therefore, we examined DCIS and breast cancer-specific, cardiovascular (CVD)-specific, and all-cause mortality among Women's Health Initiative (WHI) Clinical Trial participants overall and by age (< 70 versus ≥ 70 years). METHODS: Of 68,132 WHI participants, included were 781 postmenopausal women with incident DCIS and 781 matched controls. Serial screening mammography was mandated with high adherence. DCIS cases were confirmed by central medical record review. Adjusted multivariable Cox proportional hazard regression models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CI). Kaplan Meier (KM) plots were used to assess 10-year and 20-year mortality rates. RESULTS: After 20.3 years total, and 13.2 years median post-diagnosis follow-up, compared to controls, DCIS was associated with higher breast cancer-specific mortality (HR 3.29; CI = 1.32-8.22, P = 0.01). The absolute difference in 20-year breast cancer mortality was 1.2% without DCIS and 3.4% after DCIS, log-rank P = 0.026. Findings were similar by age (< 70 versus ≥ 70 years) with no interaction (P interaction = 0.80). Incident DCIS was not associated with CVD-specific mortality (HR 0.77; CI-0.54-1.09, P = 0.14) or with all-cause mortality (HR 0.96; CI = 0.80-1.16, P = 0.68) with similar findings by age. CONCLUSIONS: In postmenopausal women, incident DCIS was associated with over three-fold higher breast cancer-specific mortality, with similar findings in younger and older postmenopausal women. These finding suggest caution in using age to adjust DCIS clinical management or research strategies.

Use of melatonin supplements and risk of type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular diseases in the USA: insights from three prospective cohort studies.

BACKGROUND: Use of melatonin supplements has been increasing substantially in both children and adults in the USA; however, their long-term cardiometabolic effects remain unclear. We aimed to assess the associations between regular use of melatonin supplements and the risk of developing type 2 diabetes or cardiovascular disease in adults. METHODS: In this study, we included individuals from three US cohorts: the Nurses' Health Study (women only), the Health Professionals Follow-up Study (men only), and the Nurses' Health Study II (women only). Women aged 25-55 years and men aged 45-75 years at baseline, who had no diagnosis of cancer at baseline, and who responded to the question about melatonin supplement use (yes or no) were included. We excluded baseline prevalent cardiovascular disease and baseline prevalent type 2 diabetes for the main analyses. The main outcomes were cardiovascular disease and type 2 diabetes incidence. In secondary analyses, we stratified by duration of rotating night shift work in the Nurses' Health Study and Nurses' Health Study II to examine whether the associations with melatonin supplement use differed by rotating night shift work. FINDINGS: For the cardiovascular disease analysis, we included 67 202 women from the Nurses' Health Study (follow-up 1998-2019, mean age at baseline: 63·6 years [SD 7·1]), 26 629 men from the Health Professionals Follow-up Study (1998-2020, 62·9 years [8·8], and 65 241 women from the Nurses' Health Study II (2003-19, 48·2 years [4·7]). Follow-up for incident type 2 diabetes was from 1998 to June 30, 2021, for the Nurses' Health Study; 2003 to Jan 31, 2023, for the Nurses' Health Study II; and from 1998 to Jan 31, 2020, for the Health Professionals' Follow-up Study. Melatonin supplement use in the study cohorts doubled over recent decades from less than 2% in 1998-2007 to 4% or higher in 2014-15 (4·0% in men and 5·3% in women). We documented 16 917 incident cardiovascular disease events during 2 609 068 person-years of follow-up and 12 730 incident cases of type 2 diabetes during 2 701 830 person-years of follow-up. In a pooled analysis of the three cohorts, comparing users with non-users of melatonin supplements, the pooled multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios were 0·94 (95% CI 0·83-1·06, p=0·32) for cardiovascular disease and 0·98 (0·86-1·12, p=0·80) for type 2 diabetes. In secondary analyses, melatonin supplement use appeared to attenuate the positive association between long-term shift work (>5 years) and risk of cardiovascular disease (pinteraction=0·013) among the female nurses. INTERPRETATION: With up to 23 years of follow-up of three large prospective cohorts of middle-aged and older men and women, self-reported melatonin supplement use was not associated with risk of type 2 diabetes or cardiovascular disease. Further research is warranted to assess if melatonin supplement use could mitigate the potential risks of type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease associated with rotating night shift work. FUNDING: US National Institutes of Health.

Breast cancer incidence and mortality by metabolic syndrome and obesity: The Women's Health Initiative.

BACKGROUND: In the Women's Health Initiative (WHI) randomized trial, dietary intervention significantly reduced breast cancer mortality, especially in women with more metabolic syndrome (MetS) components. Therefore, this study investigated the associations of MetS and obesity with postmenopausal breast cancer after long-term follow-up in the WHI clinical trials. METHODS: A total of 68,132 postmenopausal women, without prior breast cancer and with normal mammogram, were entered into WHI randomized clinical trials; 63,330 women with an entry MetS score comprised the study population. At entry, body mass index (BMI) was determined; MetS score (0, 1-2, and 3-4) included the following: (1) high waist circumference (≥88 cm), (2) high blood pressure (systolic ≥130 mm Hg and/or diastolic ≥85 mm Hg, or hypertension history), (3) high-cholesterol history, and (4) diabetes history. Study outcomes included breast cancer incidence, breast cancer mortality, deaths after breast cancer, and results by hormone receptor status. RESULTS: After a >20-year mortality follow-up, a higher MetS score (3-4), adjusted for BMI, was significantly associated with more poor prognosis, estrogen receptor (ER)-positive, progesterone receptor (PR)-negative cancers (p = .03), 53% more deaths after breast cancer (p < .001), and 44% higher breast cancer mortality (p = .03). Obesity status, adjusted for MetS score, was significantly associated with more good prognosis, ER-positive, PR-positive cancers (p < .001), more total breast cancers (p < .001), and more deaths after breast cancer (p < .001), with higher breast cancer mortality only in women with severe obesity (BMI, ≥35 kg/m2; p < .001). CONCLUSIONS: MetS and obesity status have independent, but differential, adverse associations with breast cancer receptor subtypes and breast cancer mortality risk. Both represent separate targets for breast cancer prediction and prevention strategies.

Mediterranean Diet Adherence and Risk of All-Cause Mortality in Women.

Importance: Higher adherence to the Mediterranean diet has been associated with reduced risk of all-cause mortality, but data on underlying molecular mechanisms over long follow-up are limited. Objectives: To investigate Mediterranean diet adherence and risk of all-cause mortality and to examine the relative contribution of cardiometabolic factors to this risk reduction. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study included initially healthy women from the Women's Health Study, who had provided blood samples, biomarker measurements, and dietary information. Baseline data included self-reported demographics and a validated food-frequency questionnaire. The data collection period was from April 1993 to January 1996, and data analysis took place from June 2018 to November 2023. Exposures: Mediterranean diet score (range, 0-9) was computed based on 9 dietary components. Main Outcome and Measures: Thirty-three blood biomarkers, including traditional and novel lipid, lipoprotein, apolipoprotein, inflammation, insulin resistance, and metabolism measurements, were evaluated at baseline using standard assays and nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy. Mortality and cause of death were determined from medical and death records. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) for Mediterranean diet adherence and mortality risk, and mediation analyses were used to calculate the mediated effect of different biomarkers in understanding this association. Results: Among 25 315 participants, the mean (SD) baseline age was 54.6 (7.1) years, with 329 (1.3%) Asian women, 406 (1.6%) Black women, 240 (0.9%) Hispanic women, 24 036 (94.9%) White women, and 95 (0.4%) women with other race and ethnicity; the median (IQR) Mediterranean diet adherence score was 4.0 (3.0-5.0). Over a mean (SD) of 24.7 (4.8) years of follow-up, 3879 deaths occurred. Compared with low Mediterranean diet adherence (score 0-3), adjusted risk reductions were observed for middle (score 4-5) and upper (score 6-9) groups, with HRs of 0.84 (95% CI, 0.78-0.90) and 0.77 (95% CI, 0.70-0.84), respectively (P for trend < .001). Further adjusting for lifestyle factors attenuated the risk reductions, but they remained statistically significant (middle adherence group: HR, 0.92 [95% CI, 0.85-0.99]; upper adherence group: HR, 0.89 [95% CI, 0.82-0.98]; P for trend = .001). Of the biomarkers examined, small molecule metabolites and inflammatory biomarkers contributed most to the lower mortality risk (explaining 14.8% and 13.0%, respectively, of the association), followed by triglyceride-rich lipoproteins (10.2%), body mass index (10.2%), and insulin resistance (7.4%). Other pathways, including branched-chain amino acids, high-density lipoproteins, low-density lipoproteins, glycemic measures, and hypertension, had smaller contributions (<3%). Conclusions and Relevance: In this cohort study, higher adherence to the Mediterranean diet was associated with 23% lower risk of all-cause mortality. This inverse association was partially explained by multiple cardiometabolic factors.

24-h urinary sodium and potassium excretions, plasma metabolomic profiles, and cardiometabolic biomarkers in the United States adults: a cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: High-sodium and low-potassium intakes are associated with a higher risk of hypertension and cardiovascular disease, but there are limited data on the circulating metabolomics profiles of 24-h urinary sodium and potassium excretions in free-living individuals. OBJECTIVES: We aimed to characterize the metabolomics signatures of a high-sodium and low-potassium diet in a cross-sectional study. METHODS: In 1028 healthy older adults from the Women's and Men's Lifestyle Validation Studies, we investigated the association of habitual sodium and potassium intakes measured by 2 to 4 24-h urine samples with plasma metabolites (quantified using liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry) and metabolomic pathways. Our primary exposures were energy-adjusted 24-h urinary sodium excretion, potassium excretion, and sodium-to-potassium ratio, calculated based on energy expenditure derived from the doubly labeled water method. We then assessed the partial correlations of their metabolomics scores, derived from elastic net regressions, with cardiometabolic biomarkers. RESULTS: Higher sodium excretion was associated with 38 metabolites including higher piperine, phosphatidylethanolamine, and C5:1 carnitine. In pathway analysis, higher sodium excretion was associated with enhanced biotin and propanoate metabolism and enhanced degradation of lysine and branched-chain amino acids (BCAAs). Metabolites associated with higher potassium and lower sodium-to-potassium ratio included quinic acid and proline-betaine. After adjusting for confounding factors, the metabolomics score for sodium-to-potassium ratio positively correlated with fasting insulin (Spearman's rank correlation coefficient ρ = 0.27), C-peptide (ρ = 0.30), and triglyceride (ρ = 0.46), and negatively with adiponectin (ρ = -0.40), and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (ρ = -0.42). CONCLUSIONS: We discovered metabolites and metabolomics pathways associated with a high-sodium diet, including metabolites related to biotin, propanoate, lysine, and BCAA pathways. The metabolomics signature for a higher sodium low-potassium diet is associated with multiple components of elevated cardiometabolic risk.

Identifying the relation between food groups and biological ageing: a data-driven approach.

BACKGROUND: Heterogeneity in ageing rates drives the need for research into lifestyle secrets of successful agers. Biological age, predicted by epigenetic clocks, has been shown to be a more reliable measure of ageing than chronological age. Dietary habits are known to affect the ageing process. However, much remains to be learnt about specific dietary habits that may directly affect the biological process of ageing. OBJECTIVE: To identify food groups that are directly related to biological ageing, using Copula Graphical Models. METHODS: We performed a preregistered analysis of 3,990 postmenopausal women from the Women's Health Initiative, based in North America. Biological age acceleration was calculated by the epigenetic clock PhenoAge using whole-blood DNA methylation. Copula Graphical Modelling, a powerful data-driven exploratory tool, was used to examine relations between food groups and biological ageing whilst adjusting for an extensive amount of confounders. Two food group-age acceleration networks were established: one based on the MyPyramid food grouping system and another based on item-level food group data. RESULTS: Intake of eggs, organ meat, sausages, cheese, legumes, starchy vegetables, added sugar and lunch meat was associated with biological age acceleration, whereas intake of peaches/nectarines/plums, poultry, nuts, discretionary oil and solid fat was associated with decelerated ageing. CONCLUSION: We identified several associations between specific food groups and biological ageing. These findings pave the way for subsequent studies to ascertain causality and magnitude of these relationships, thereby improving the understanding of biological mechanisms underlying the interplay between food groups and biological ageing.

The Women's Health Initiative Randomized Trials and Clinical Practice: A Review.

Importance: Approximately 55 million people in the US and approximately 1.1 billion people worldwide are postmenopausal women. To inform clinical practice about the health effects of menopausal hormone therapy, calcium plus vitamin D supplementation, and a low-fat dietary pattern, the Women's Health Initiative (WHI) enrolled 161 808 postmenopausal US women (N = 68 132 in the clinical trials) aged 50 to 79 years at baseline from 1993 to 1998, and followed them up for up to 20 years. Observations: The WHI clinical trial results do not support hormone therapy with oral conjugated equine estrogens plus medroxyprogesterone acetate for postmenopausal women or conjugated equine estrogens alone for those with prior hysterectomy to prevent cardiovascular disease, dementia, or other chronic diseases. However, hormone therapy is effective for treating moderate to severe vasomotor and other menopausal symptoms. These benefits of hormone therapy in early menopause, combined with lower rates of adverse effects of hormone therapy in early compared with later menopause, support initiation of hormone therapy before age 60 years for women without contraindications to hormone therapy who have bothersome menopausal symptoms. The WHI results do not support routinely recommending calcium plus vitamin D supplementation for fracture prevention in all postmenopausal women. However, calcium and vitamin D are appropriate for women who do not meet national guidelines for recommended intakes of these nutrients through diet. A low-fat dietary pattern with increased fruit, vegetable, and grain consumption did not prevent the primary outcomes of breast or colorectal cancer but was associated with lower rates of the secondary outcome of breast cancer mortality during long-term follow-up. Conclusions and Relevance: For postmenopausal women, the WHI randomized clinical trials do not support menopausal hormone therapy to prevent cardiovascular disease or other chronic diseases. Menopausal hormone therapy is appropriate to treat bothersome vasomotor symptoms among women in early menopause, without contraindications, who are interested in taking hormone therapy. The WHI evidence does not support routine supplementation with calcium plus vitamin D for menopausal women to prevent fractures or a low-fat diet with increased fruits, vegetables, and grains to prevent breast or colorectal cancer. A potential role of a low-fat dietary pattern in reducing breast cancer mortality, a secondary outcome, warrants further study.

Prediction of 24-Hour Urinary Sodium Excretion Using Machine-Learning Algorithms.

BACKGROUND: Accurate quantification of sodium intake based on self-reported dietary assessments has been a persistent challenge. We aimed to apply machine-learning (ML) algorithms to predict 24-hour urinary sodium excretion from self-reported questionnaire information. METHODS AND RESULTS: We analyzed 3454 participants from the NHS (Nurses' Health Study), NHS-II (Nurses' Health Study II), and HPFS (Health Professionals Follow-Up Study), with repeated measures of 24-hour urinary sodium excretion over 1 year. We used an ensemble approach to predict averaged 24-hour urinary sodium excretion using 36 characteristics. The TOHP-I (Trial of Hypertension Prevention I) was used for the external validation. The final ML algorithms were applied to 167 920 nonhypertensive adults with 30-year follow-up to estimate confounder-adjusted hazard ratio (HR) of incident hypertension for predicted sodium. Averaged 24-hour urinary sodium excretion was better predicted and calibrated with ML compared with the food frequency questionnaire (Spearman correlation coefficient, 0.51 [95% CI, 0.49-0.54] with ML; 0.19 [95% CI, 0.16-0.23] with the food frequency questionnaire; 0.46 [95% CI, 0.42-0.50] in the TOHP-I). However, the prediction heavily depended on body size, and the prediction of energy-adjusted 24-hour sodium excretion was modestly better using ML. ML-predicted sodium was modestly more strongly associated than food frequency questionnaire-based sodium in the NHS-II (HR comparing Q5 versus Q1, 1.48 [95% CI, 1.40-1.56] with ML; 1.04 [95% CI, 0.99-1.08] with the food frequency questionnaire), but no material differences were observed in the NHS or HPFS. CONCLUSIONS: The present ML algorithm improved prediction of participants' absolute 24-hour urinary sodium excretion. The present algorithms may be a generalizable approach for predicting absolute sodium intake but do not substantially reduce the bias stemming from measurement error in disease associations.

Cardiovascular Burden of the V142I Transthyretin Variant.

Importance: Individual cohort studies concur that the amyloidogenic V142I variant of the transthyretin (TTR) gene, present in 3% to 4% of US Black individuals, increases heart failure (HF) and mortality risk. Precisely defining carrier risk across relevant clinical outcomes and estimating population burden of disease are important given established and emerging targeted treatments. Objectives: To better define the natural history of disease in carriers across mid to late life, assess variant modifiers, and estimate cardiovascular burden to the US population. Design, Setting, and Participants: A total of 23 338 self-reported Black participants initially free from HF were included in 4 large observational studies across the US (mean [SD], 15.5 [8.2] years of follow-up). Data analysis was performed between May 2023 and February 2024. Exposure: V142I carrier status (n = 754, 3.2%). Main Outcomes and Measures: Hospitalizations for HF (including subtypes of reduced and preserved ejection fraction) and all-cause mortality. Outcomes were analyzed by generating 10-year hazard ratios for each age between 50 and 90 years. Using actuarial methods, mean survival by carrier status was estimated and applied to the 2022 US population using US Census data. Results: Among the 23 338 participants, the mean (SD) age at baseline was 62 (9) years and 76.7% were women. Ten-year carrier risk increased for HF hospitalization by age 63 years, predominantly driven by HF with reduced ejection fraction, and 10-year all-cause mortality risk increased by age 72 years. Only age (but not sex or other select variables) modified risk with the variant, with estimated reductions in longevity ranging from 1.9 years (95% CI, 0.6-3.1) at age 50 to 2.8 years (95% CI, 2.0-3.6) at age 81. Based on these data, 435 851 estimated US Black carriers between ages 50 and 95 years are projected to cumulatively lose 957 505 years of life (95% CI, 534 475-1 380 535) due to the variant. Conclusions and Relevance: Among self-reported Black individuals, male and female V142I carriers faced similar and substantial risk for HF hospitalization, predominantly with reduced ejection fraction, and death, with steep age-dependent penetrance. Delineating the individual contributions of, and complex interplay among, the V142I variant, ancestry, the social construct of race, and biological or social determinants of health to cardiovascular disease merits further investigation.

Associations of tubal ligation and hysterectomy with serum androgen and estrogen metabolites among postmenopausal women in the Women's Health Initiative Observational Study.

PURPOSE: Hysterectomy is associated with subsequent changes in circulating hormone levels, but the evidence of an association for tubal ligation is unclear. We evaluated whether circulating concentrations of androgens and estrogens differ by tubal ligation or hysterectomy status in postmenopausal women from the Women's Health Initiative (WHI)-Observational Study (OS). METHODS: Serum androgens and estrogens were measured in 920 postmenopausal women who did not use menopausal hormone therapy at the time of blood draw, of whom 139 self-reported a history of tubal ligation and 102 reported hysterectomy (with intact ovaries). Geometric mean hormone concentrations (GMs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) associated with a history of tubal ligation or hysterectomy (ever/never), as well as time since procedures, were estimated using adjusted linear regression with inverse probability of sampling weights to account for selection. RESULTS: Circulating levels of 12 androgen/androgen metabolites and 20 estrogen/estrogen metabolites did not differ by tubal ligation status. Among women reporting prior hysterectomy compared to women without hysterectomy, we observed lower levels of several androgens (e.g., testosterone (nmol/L): GMyes 0.46 [95% CI:0.37-0.57] vs. GMno 0.62 [95% CI:0.53-0.72]) and higher levels of estrogen metabolites, for example, 2-hydroxyestrone-3-methyl ether (GMyes 11.1 [95% CI:8.95-13.9] pmol/L vs. GMno 8.70 [95% CI:7.38-10.3]) and 4-methoxyestrone (GMyes 6.50 [95% CI:5.05-8.37] vs. GMno 4.92 [95% CI:4.00-6.05]). CONCLUSION: While we did not observe associations between prior tubal ligation and postmenopausal circulating hormone levels, our findings support that prior hysterectomy was associated with lower circulating testosterone levels and higher levels of some estrogen metabolites, which may have implications for future hormone-related disease risks.

Systolic Blood Pressure and Survival to Very Old Age: Results From the Women's Health Initiative.

BACKGROUND: The relationship between systolic blood pressure (SBP) and longevity is not fully understood. We aimed to determine which SBP levels in women ≥65 years of age with or without blood pressure medication were associated with the highest probability of surviving to 90 years of age. METHODS: The study population consisted of 16 570 participants enrolled in the Women's Health Initiative who were eligible to survive to 90 years of age by February 28, 2020, without a history of cardiovascular disease, diabetes, or cancer. Blood pressure was measured at baseline (1993 through 1998) and then annually through 2005. The outcome was defined as survival to 90 years of age with follow-up. Absolute probabilities of surviving to 90 years of age were estimated for all combinations of SBP and age using generalized additive logistic regression modeling. The SBP that maximized survival was estimated for each age, and a 95% CI was generated. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 19.8 years, 9723 of 16 570 women (59%) survived to 90 years of age. Women with an SBP between 110 and 130 mm Hg at attained ages of 65, 70, 75, and 80 years had a 38% (95% CI, 34%-48%), 54% (52%-56%), 66% (64%-67%), or 75% (73%-78%) absolute probability to survive to 90 years of age, respectively. The probability of surviving to 90 years of age was lower for greater SBP levels. Women at the attained age of 80 years with 0%, 20%, 40%, 60%, 80%, or 100% time in therapeutic range (defined as an SBP between 110 and 130 mm Hg) had a 66% (64%-69%), 68% (67%-70%), 71% (69%-72%), 73% (71%-74%), 75% (72%-77%), or 77% (74%-79%) absolute survival probability to 90 years of age. CONCLUSIONS: For women >65 years of age with low cardiovascular disease and other chronic disease risk, an SBP level <130 mm Hg was found to be associated with longevity. These findings reinforce current guidelines targeting an SBP target <130 mm Hg in older women.

Time-to-Event Genome-Wide Association Study for Incident Cardiovascular Disease in People With Type 2 Diabetes.

OBJECTIVE: To identify genetic risk factors for incident cardiovascular disease (CVD) among people with type 2 diabetes (T2D). RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: We conducted a multiancestry time-to-event genome-wide association study for incident CVD among people with T2D. We also tested 204 known coronary artery disease (CAD) variants for association with incident CVD. RESULTS: Among 49,230 participants with T2D, 8,956 had incident CVD events (event rate 18.2%). We identified three novel genetic loci for incident CVD: rs147138607 (near CACNA1E/ZNF648, hazard ratio [HR] 1.23, P = 3.6 × 10-9), rs77142250 (near HS3ST1, HR 1.89, P = 9.9 × 10-9), and rs335407 (near TFB1M/NOX3, HR 1.25, P = 1.5 × 10-8). Among 204 known CAD loci, 5 were associated with incident CVD in T2D (multiple comparison-adjusted P < 0.00024, 0.05/204). A standardized polygenic score of these 204 variants was associated with incident CVD with HR 1.14 (P = 1.0 × 10-16). CONCLUSIONS: The data point to novel and known genomic regions associated with incident CVD among individuals with T2D.

Plasma oxysterols are associated with serum lipids and dementia risk in older women.

INTRODUCTION: Apolipoprotein E4 (APOE4) carriers' tendency toward hypercholesterolemia may contribute to Alzheimer's disease (AD) risk through oxysterols, which traverse the blood-brain barrier. METHODS: Relationships between baseline plasma oxysterols, APOE status, serum lipids, and cognitive impairment risk were examined in 328 postmenopausal women from the Women's Health Initiative Memory Study. Women were followed for 25 years or until incident dementia or cognitive impairment. RESULTS: Levels of 24(S)-hydroxycholesterol (24-OHC), 27-hydroxycholesterol (27-OHC), and 24-OHC/27-OHC ratio did not differ by APOE status (p's > 0.05). Higher 24-OHC and 27-OHC were associated with higher total, low density lipoprotein (LDL), non-high density lipoprotein (HDL), remnant, LDL/HDL, and total/HDL cholesterol and triglycerides (p's < 0.05). Higher 24-OHC/27-OHC was associated with greater dementia risk (hazard ratio = 1.51, 95% confidence interval:1.02-2.22), which interaction analyses revealed as significant for APOE3 and APOE4+, but not APOE2+ carriers. DISCUSSION: Less favorable lipid profiles were associated with higher oxysterol levels. A higher ratio of 24-OHC/27-OHC may contribute to dementia risk in APOE3 and APOE4+ carriers.

Randomized trials of estrogen-alone and breast cancer incidence: a meta-analysis.

PURPOSE: In the Women's Health initiative (WHI) randomized clinical trial, conjugated equine estrogen (CEE)-alone significantly reduced breast cancer incidence (P = 0.005). As cohort studies had opposite findings, other randomized clinical trials were identified to conduct a meta-analysis of estrogen-alone influence on breast cancer incidence. METHODS: We conducted literature searches on randomized trials and: estrogen, hormone therapy, and breast cancer, and searches from a prior meta-analysis and reviews. In the meta-analysis, for trials with published relative risks (RR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI), each log-RR was multiplied by weight = 1/V, where V = variance of the log-RR, and V was derived from the corresponding 95% CI. For smaller trials with only breast cancer numbers, the corresponding log-RR = (O - E)/weight, where O is the observed case number in the oestrogen-alone group and E the corresponding expected case number, E = nP. RESULTS: Findings from 10 randomized trials included 14,282 participants and 591 incident breast cancers. In 9 smaller trials, with 1.2% (24 of 2029) vs 2.2% (33 of 1514) randomized to estrogen-alone vs placebo (open label, one trial) (RR 0.65 95% CI 0.38-1.11, P = 0.12). For 5 trials evaluating estradiol formulations, RR = 0.63 95% CI 0.34-1.16, P = 0.15. Combining the 10 trials, 3.6% (262 of 7339) vs 4.7% (329 of 6943) randomized to estrogen-alone vs placebo (overall RR 0.77 95% CI 0.65-0.91, P = 0.002). CONCLUSION: The totality of randomized clinical trial evidence supports a conclusion that estrogen-alone use significantly reduces breast cancer incidence.