Prevention is better than cure: Integrating habitat suitability and invasion threat to assess global biological invasion risk by insect pests under climate change.

BACKGROUND: Invasive alien species cause substantial impacts on ecosystem, economy, and public health. Therefore, identifying areas at risk of invasion and establishment is essential for the development and implementation of preventive measures. In this study, we integrated information on species habitat suitability, location of airports and ports, and invasion threat maps to assess global invasion risk under climate change using the cucurbit beetle, Diabrotica speciosa (Germar, 1824), as a model organism. RESULTS: Suitable and optimal habitats for D. speciosa were estimated in several regions beyond its native range and comprised all continents. A decrease in the extent of suitable and optimal habitats for D. speciosa was predicted in different climate change scenarios, resulting in a reduction in invasion risk in most regions. However, regions such as western Europe and isolated areas in southern Asia and Oceania were predicted to face an increase in invasion risk under climate change. Invasion pathways via airports and ports were identified in all continents. CONCLUSION: Our findings can be used in the development of phytosanitary measures against D. speciosa in high-risk areas. Furthermore, the approach used in this study provides a framework for estimating the global risk of invasion by insect pests and other terrestrial organisms in different climate change scenarios. This information can be used by policy makers to develop preventive measures against species with potential to invade and spread in regions beyond their native range. © 2021 Society of Chemical Industry.

The hotter the better? Climate change and voltinism of Spodoptera eridania estimated with different methods.

Substantial increases in global temperature are projected for the coming decades due to climate change. Considering that temperature has a strong influence on insect voltinism (i.e., number of generations per year), climate change may affect the population growth of insects, with potential consequences for food production. The southern armyworm, Spodoptera eridania, is a multivoltine species native to the American tropics that causes severe damage to several crops. In this context, this study evaluated the impacts of climate change on the voltinism of S. eridania in southern Brazil. Current and future daily temperature data were combined with non-linear and degree-day models to estimate the voltinism of this pest. Under current climate conditions, the voltinism of S. eridania ranged from 2.9 to 9.2 generations, with fewer cohorts in colder regions and more in warmer ones. A higher number of generations was predicted for the future climate scenarios evaluated, reaching up to 12.1 annual generations in certain regions by 2070. Most of the variation in voltinism was explained by location (87.7%) and by the interaction between location and mathematical model (3.0%). The degree-day model estimated an increase in the number of generations in the entire study area, while the non-linear model predicted a decrease in voltinism in the warmer regions under future climate change scenarios. Given these differences between the predictions provided by degree-day and non-linear models, the selection of the best method to be used in climate change studies should be carried out carefully, considering how species respond to temperature. A considerable increase in the number of generations of S. eridania was projected for most of the study area under the climate change scenarios evaluated, suggesting a possible rise in pest incidence levels in the coming decades.

Temperature-dependent development models describing the effects of temperature on the development of Spodoptera eridania.

BACKGROUND: The southern armyworm, Spodoptera eridania, is a polyphagous species native to the American tropics that recently invaded Africa. Knowledge of the impact of temperature on its development and survival is important to understand the risks of this species spreading to other regions and to develop phenological models for pest management. This study evaluated the effects of temperature on the development and survival of S. eridania and selected mathematical models to simulate its development. RESULTS: The southern armyworm completed its development between 15 and 32 °C, but eggs did not hatch at 34 °C. Lower survival and higher rates of deformities in adults were recorded at 15 and 32 °C. Among the ten mathematical models evaluated, Briere-2, Lactin-2 and Shi were considered suitable for describing the temperature-dependent development rate of S. eridania. The lower thermal threshold estimated by these models for the egg to adult life cycle ranged from 10.8 to 12.1 °C, whereas the upper threshold ranged between 33.9 and 35.0 °C. CONCLUSIONS: The southern armyworm can develop within a wide range of temperatures, which partially explains its wide distribution in regions with different climatic conditions, and demonstrates its potential to occur in regions outside its native range. Our findings can be employed in the development of management strategies using the selected models to predict the occurrence of S. eridania in the field and determine the most effective times to implement control measures.

Potential global distribution of Diabrotica species and the risks for agricultural production.

BACKGROUND: Despite efforts in the last few decades to prevent biological invasions, agricultural pests continue to spread as a result of globalization and international trade. This study was conducted to identify suitable areas for the occurrence of four Diabrotica species and to assess the potential impact of these species in a scenario of invasion followed by spread throughout the estimated suitable regions. RESULTS: Our findings reveal that a large proportion of the suitable areas for Diabrotica species overlap with cultivated areas. Niche analyses also demonstrated that these species occupy a small proportion of the suitable habitats available to them, indicating that, if new areas are invaded, there is a risk of spread throughout adjacent regions. CONCLUSION: Most of the suitable areas for Diabrotica species overlap with highly productive agricultural areas, suggesting that a potential spread of these species may cause economic loss. Our study provides a valuable contribution to the development of tools aiming to predict the potential spread of these species throughout the world. © 2018 Society of Chemical Industry.

Estimating the development rate of the tomato leaf miner, Tuta absoluta (Lepidoptera: Gelechiidae), using linear and non-linear models.

BACKGROUND: Tuta absoluta Meyrick (Lepidoptera: Gelechiidae) is native to South America and has recently invaded European, African and Asian countries, where it is causing severe damage to tomato crops leading to an increase in the number of insecticide applications. This situation has prompted a demand for alternative pest management strategies aiming to control T. absoluta and concomitantly reduce insecticide applications. The development period for immature stages of T. absoluta at constant temperatures was modelled to select appropriate mathematical functions for simulating its development. RESULTS: The performance of the models varied according to the insect development stage, but in general all models performed well considering the statistical criteria used. Discrimination among models was possible only when the reliability of the temperature thresholds estimated by the models was used as an additional criterion. In this case, the models Briere-1, Lactin-2 and Shi proved adequate to describe the relationship between temperature and development rate of T. absoluta. CONCLUSION: These models provide an important tool to predict the occurrence of the immature stages of T. absoluta in the field in order to determine the best period for implementing control measures. This is an important contribution to the development of pest management strategies for T. absoluta. © 2016 Society of Chemical Industry.

Global Potential Distribution of Bactrocera carambolae and the Risks for Fruit Production in Brazil.

The carambola fruit fly, Bactrocera carambolae, is a tephritid native to Asia that has invaded South America through small-scale trade of fruits from Indonesia. The economic losses associated with biological invasions of other fruit flies around the world and the polyphagous behaviour of B. carambolae have prompted much concern among government agencies and farmers with the potential spread of this pest. Here, ecological niche models were employed to identify suitable environments available to B. carambolae in a global scale and assess the extent of the fruit acreage that may be at risk of attack in Brazil. Overall, 30 MaxEnt models built with different combinations of environmental predictors and settings were evaluated for predicting the potential distribution of the carambola fruit fly. The best model was selected based on threshold-independent and threshold-dependent metrics. Climatically suitable areas were identified in tropical and subtropical regions of Central and South America, Sub-Saharan Africa, west and east coast of India and northern Australia. The suitability map of B. carambola was intersected against maps of fruit acreage in Brazil. The acreage under potential risk of attack varied widely among fruit species, which is expected because the production areas are concentrated in different regions of the country. The production of cashew is the one that is at higher risk, with almost 90% of its acreage within the suitable range of B. carambolae, followed by papaya (78%), tangerine (51%), guava (38%), lemon (30%), orange (29%), mango (24%) and avocado (20%). This study provides an important contribution to the knowledge of the ecology of B. carambolae, and the information generated here can be used by government agencies as a decision-making tool to prevent the carambola fruit fly spread across the world.