Modeling the impact of a supervised consumption site on HIV and HCV transmission among people who inject drugs in three counties in California, USA.

BACKGROUND: Supervised consumption sites (SCS) have been shown to reduce receptive syringe sharing among people who inject drugs (PWID) in the United States and elsewhere, which can prevent HIV and hepatitis C virus (HCV) transmission. PWID are at risk of disease transmission and may benefit from SCS, however legislation has yet to support their implementation. This study aims to determine the potential impact of SCS implementation on HIV and HCV incidence among PWID in three California counties. METHODS: A dynamic HIV and HCV joint transmission model among PWID (sexual and injecting transmission of HIV, injecting transmission of HCV) was calibrated to epidemiological data for three counties: San Francisco, Los Angeles, and San Diego. The model incorporated HIV and HCV disease stages and HIV and HCV treatment. Based on United States data, we assumed access to SCS reduced receptive syringe sharing by a relative risk of 0.17 (95 % CI: 0.04-1.03). This model examined scaling-up SCS coverage from 0 % to 20 % of the PWID population within the respective counties and assessed its impact on HIV and HCV incidence rates after 10 years. RESULTS: By increasing SCS from 0 % to 20 % coverage among PWID, 21.8 % (95 % CI: -1.2-32.9 %) of new HIV infections and 28.3 % (95 % CI: -2.0-34.5 %) of new HCV infections among PWID in San Francisco County, 17.7 % (95 % CI: -1.0-30.8 %) of new HIV infections and 29.8 % (95 % CI: -2.1-36.1 %) of new HCV infections in Los Angeles County, and 32.1 % (95 % CI: -2.8-41.5 %) of new HIV infections and 24.3 % (95 % CI: -1.6-29.0 %) of new HCV infections in San Diego County could be prevented over ten years. CONCLUSION: Our models suggest that SCS is an important intervention to enable HCV elimination and could help end the HIV epidemic among PWID in California. It could also have additional benefits such facilitating pathways into drug treatment programs and preventing fatal overdose.

A matched comparison study of hepatitis C treatment outcomes in the prison and community setting, and an analysis of the impact of prison release or transfer during therapy.

Prisoners are a priority group for hepatitis C (HCV) treatment. Although treatment durations will become shorter using directly acting antivirals (DAAs), nearly half of prison sentences in Scotland are too short to allow completion of DAA therapy prior to release. The purpose of this study was to compare treatment outcomes between prison- and community-based patients and to examine the impact of prison release or transfer during therapy. A national database was used to compare treatment outcomes between prison treatment initiates and a matched community sample. Additional data were collected to investigate the impact of release or transfer on treatment outcomes. Treatment-naïve patients infected with genotype 1/2/3/4 and treated between 2009 and 2012 were eligible for inclusion. 291 prison initiates were matched with 1137 community initiates: SVRs were 61% (95% CI 55%-66%) and 63% (95% CI 60%-66%), respectively. Odds of achieving a SVR were not significantly associated with prisoner status (P=.33). SVRs were 74% (95% CI 65%-81%), 59% (95% CI 42%-75%) and 45% (95% CI 29%-62%) among those not released or transferred, transferred during treatment, or released during treatment, respectively. Odds of achieving a SVR were significantly associated with release (P<.01), but not transfer (P=.18). Prison-based HCV treatment achieves similar outcomes to community-based treatment, with those not released or transferred during treatment doing particularly well. Transfer or release during therapy should be avoided whenever possible, using anticipatory planning and medical holds where appropriate.

New treatments for hepatitis C virus (HCV): scope for preventing liver disease and HCV transmission in England.

New direct-acting antivirals have the potential to transform the hepatitis C (HCV) treatment landscape, with rates of sustained viral response in excess of 90%. As these new agents are expensive, an important question is whether to focus on minimizing the consequences of severe liver disease, or reducing transmission via 'treatment as prevention'. A back-calculation model was used to estimate the impact of treatment of mild, moderate and compensated cirrhosis on incident cases of HCV-related end-stage liver disease/hepatocellular carcinoma (ESLD/HCC). In addition, a dynamic model was used to determine the impact on incidence and prevalence of chronic infection in people who inject drugs (PWID), the main risk group in England. Treating 3500 cirrhotics per year was predicted to reduce ESLD/HCC incidence from 1100 (95% CrI 970-1240) cases per year in 2015 to 630 (95% CrI 530-770) in 2020, around half that currently expected, although treating moderate-stage disease will also be needed to sustain this reduction. Treating mild-stage PWID was required to make a substantial impact on transmission: with 2500 treated per year, chronic prevalence/annual incidence in PWID was reduced from 34%/4.8% in 2015 to 11%/1.4% in 2030. There was little overlap between the two goals: treating mild stage had virtually no impact on ESLD/HCC within 15 years, but the long timescale of liver disease means relatively few PWID reach cirrhosis before cessation of injecting. Strategies focussing on treating advanced disease have the potential for dramatic reductions in severe morbidity, but virtually no preventative impact.

HCV treatment rates and sustained viral response among people who inject drugs in seven UK sites: real world results and modelling of treatment impact.

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) antiviral treatment for people who inject drugs (PWID) could prevent onwards transmission and reduce chronic prevalence. We assessed current PWID treatment rates in seven UK settings and projected the potential impact of current and scaled-up treatment on HCV chronic prevalence. Data on number of PWID treated and sustained viral response rates (SVR) were collected from seven UK settings: Bristol (37-48% HCV chronic prevalence among PWID), East London (37-48%), Manchester (48-56%), Nottingham (37-44%), Plymouth (30-37%), Dundee (20-27%) and North Wales (27-33%). A model of HCV transmission among PWID projected the 10-year impact of (i) current treatment rates and SVR (ii) scale-up with interferon-free direct acting antivirals (IFN-free DAAs) with 90% SVR. Treatment rates varied from <5 to over 25 per 1000 PWID. Pooled intention-to-treat SVR for PWID were 45% genotypes 1/4 [95%CI 33-57%] and 61% genotypes 2/3 [95%CI 47-76%]. Projections of chronic HCV prevalence among PWID after 10 years of current levels of treatment overlapped substantially with current HCV prevalence estimates. Scaling-up treatment to 26/1000 PWID annually (achieved already in two sites) with IFN-free DAAs could achieve an observable absolute reduction in HCV chronic prevalence of at least 15% among PWID in all sites and greater than a halving in chronic HCV in Plymouth, Dundee and North Wales within a decade. Current treatment rates among PWID are unlikely to achieve observable reductions in HCV chronic prevalence over the next 10 years. Achievable scale-up, however, could lead to substantial reductions in HCV chronic prevalence.

Assessing the cost-effectiveness of finding cases of hepatitis C infection in UK migrant populations and the value of further research.

Hepatitis C (HCV) infection can cause cirrhosis, liver cancer and death in the absence of treatment. Many people living in the UK but born overseas are believed to be infected with HCV although many are unlikely to know they are infected. The aim of this study is to assess the potential for a case-finding approach to be cost-effective and to estimate the value of further research. An economic evaluation and value of information analysis was undertaken by developing a model of HCV disease progression and by populating it with evidence from the published literature. They were performed from a UK National Health Services cost perspective, and outcomes were expressed in terms of quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs). The comparator intervention was defined as the background rate of testing (i.e. no intervention). The base case results generated an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of about £23,200 per additional QALY. However, the ICER was shown to be particularly sensitive to HCV seroprevalence, the intervention effect / cost and the probability of treatment uptake. The value of information analysis suggested that approximately £4 million should be spent on further research. This evaluation demonstrates that testing UK migrants for HCV could be cost-effective. However, further research, particularly to refine estimates of the probability of treatment uptake once identified, the utility associated with sustained virological response and the cost of the intervention, would help to increase the robustness of this conclusion.

Pancreatic insufficiency in patients with HIV infection: role of didanosine questioned.

OBJECTIVES: The aim of the study was to identify possible causes of pancreatic insufficiency in patients with HIV infection. METHODS: A retrospective analysis of 233 HIV-positive patients for whom faecal elastase measurement was available was performed to investigate potential associations with core demographic data, HIV infection characteristics, degree of immunosuppresion, exposure to antiretroviral therapy (ART), alcohol misuse, diabetes, hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection, triglyceride and cholesterol levels and symptomatology. The response to pancreatic enzyme replacement for patients with evidence of insufficiency was also evaluated. RESULTS: Of 233 patients, 104 (45%) had evidence of pancreatic exocrine insufficiency (faecal elastase < 200 mcg/g). A positive association with exocrine pancreatic insufficiency was found for HCV infection (P = 0.007), previous or current HCV treatment (P = 0.003), alcohol misuse history (P = 0.006) and the presence of steatorrhoea (P = 0.03). There was no demonstrated association between exocrine pancreatic insufficiency and didanosine (ddI) exposure (P = 0.43) or stavudine (d4T) exposure (P = 0.62). Seventy-seven per cent of patients who were treated with pancreatic enzymatic supplementation reported a subjective improvement in symptoms. CONCLUSIONS: Faecal elastase sampling should form part of the routine work-up for HIV-positive patients with chronic diarrhoea even in the absence of 'traditional' risk factors such as ddI exposure. In particular, if the patient has steatorrhoea, a history of alcohol exposure or their HCV serology is positive, they should be considered for investigation. Treatment with pancreatic enzyme supplementation appears to be effective in the treatment of chronic diarrhoea caused by pancreatic insufficiency in the majority of patients.

Could low dead-space syringes really reduce HIV transmission to low levels?

Studies published by Zule and colleagues have suggested that use of low dead-space syringes (LDSS) instead of high dead-space syringes (HDSS) by injecting drug users (IDUs) could dramatically reduce HIV transmission. However, evidence is limited because experiments have considered a small range of syringe types and have been unable to reliably estimate the efficacy of using LDSS for reducing HIV transmission. We critically appraise available evidence to determine whether using LDSS is likely to dramatically reduce HIV transmission. We systematically review the literature on the dead-space volume of syringes and estimate the factor difference in blood volume transferred from sharing LDSS or HDSS. Existing data on the relationship between host viral load and HIV transmission risk is used to evaluate the likely efficacy of using LDSS instead of HDSS. An HIV transmission model is used to make conservative impact projections for switching to using LDSS, and explore the implications of heterogeneity in IDU transmission risk and syringe preferences. Although highly variable, reviewed studies suggest that HDSS have on average 10 times the dead-space volume of LDSS and could result in 6/54/489 times more blood being transferred after 0/1/2 water rinses. Assuming a conservative 2-fold increase in HIV transmission risk per 10-fold increase in infected blood inoculum, HDSS use could be associated with a mean 1.7/3.6/6.5-fold increase in transmission risk compared to LDSS for 0/1/2 rinses. However, even for a low efficacy estimate, modelling suggests that partially transferring to LDSS use from using HDSS could dramatically reduce HIV prevalence (generally >33% if LDSS use is 50%), but impact will depend on IDU behavioural heterogeneity and syringe preference. Indirect evidence suggests that encouraging HDSS users to use LDSS could be a powerful HIV prevention strategy. There is an urgent need to evaluate the real life effectiveness of this strategy.

Predicting the safety and efficacy of buffer therapy to raise tumour pHe: an integrative modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Clinical positron emission tomography imaging has demonstrated the vast majority of human cancers exhibit significantly increased glucose metabolism when compared with adjacent normal tissue, resulting in an acidic tumour microenvironment. Recent studies demonstrated reducing this acidity through systemic buffers significantly inhibits development and growth of metastases in mouse xenografts. METHODS: We apply and extend a previously developed mathematical model of blood and tumour buffering to examine the impact of oral administration of bicarbonate buffer in mice, and the potential impact in humans. We recapitulate the experimentally observed tumour pHe effect of buffer therapy, testing a model prediction in vivo in mice. We parameterise the model to humans to determine the translational safety and efficacy, and predict patient subgroups who could have enhanced treatment response, and the most promising combination or alternative buffer therapies. RESULTS: The model predicts a previously unseen potentially dangerous elevation in blood pHe resulting from bicarbonate therapy in mice, which is confirmed by our in vivo experiments. Simulations predict limited efficacy of bicarbonate, especially in humans with more aggressive cancers. We predict buffer therapy would be most effectual: in elderly patients or individuals with renal impairments; in combination with proton production inhibitors (such as dichloroacetate), renal glomular filtration rate inhibitors (such as non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs and angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors), or with an alternative buffer reagent possessing an optimal pK of 7.1-7.2. CONCLUSION: Our mathematical model confirms bicarbonate acts as an effective agent to raise tumour pHe, but potentially induces metabolic alkalosis at the high doses necessary for tumour pHe normalisation. We predict use in elderly patients or in combination with proton production inhibitors or buffers with a pK of 7.1-7.2 is most promising.

High resolution EEG: 124-channel recording, spatial deblurring and MRI integration methods.

This paper describes a method for increasing the spatial detail of the EEG and for integrating physiological data with anatomical models based on magnetic resonance images (MRIs). This method includes techniques to efficiently record EEG data from up to 124 channels, to measure 3-D electrode positions for alignment with MRI-derived head models, and to estimate potentials near the outer convexity of the cortex using a spatial deblurring technique which uses a realistic model of the structure of the head and which makes no assumptions about the number or type of generator sources. The validity of this approach has been initially tested by comparing estimated cortical potentials with those measured with subdural grid recordings from two neurosurgical patients. The method is illustrated with somatosensory steady-state evoked potential data recorded from 5 healthy subjects. Results suggest that deblurred 124-channel topographic maps, registered with a subject's MRI and rendered in 3 dimensions, provide better spatial detail than has heretofore been obtained with scalp EEG recordings. The results also suggest that the potential for EEG as a functional neuroimaging modality has yet to be fully realized.

College-bound students: are we meeting their needs?

This research investigated the relationship of educational level and marital status of parents, number of children in the family, and family stability to the social, emotional, and academic development of college-bound students. Subjects were 52 tenth-grade college-preparatory students from a southern public high school. Data were collected using the Measures of Psychosocial Development (MPD), the School Environment Preference Survey (SEPS), and the Study Attitudes and Methods Survey (SAMS). Results of a multivariate analysis of variance indicated significant differences in autonomy, initiative, ego integrity, guilt, isolation, academic interest, study methods, manipulation, and alientation toward authority. Implications for school personnel are noted.