Current estimate of Down Syndrome population prevalence in the United States.

OBJECTIVE: To calculate a reliable estimate of the population prevalence of Down syndrome in the US. STUDY DESIGN: The annual number of births of infants with Down syndrome were estimated by applying published birth prevalence rates of Down syndrome by maternal age to US data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention for the years for which births by maternal age were available (1940-2008). Death certificate data for persons with Down syndrome were available for the years 1968-2007. We estimated the number of people with Down syndrome on January 1, 2008, using a life table approach based on proportions of deaths by age. Monte Carlo sampling was used to create 90% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for our estimates. RESULTS: We estimated the January 1, 2008, population prevalence of Down syndrome as approximately 250700 (90% UI, 185900-321700) based on proportions of deaths by age from the most recent 2 years (2006-2007) of death certificate data. This estimate corresponds to a prevalence of 8.27 people with Down syndrome per 10000 population (90% UI, 6.14-10.62). CONCLUSION: Our estimate of Down syndrome prevalence is roughly 25%-40% lower than estimates based solely on current birth prevalence. The results presented here can be considered a starting point for facilitating policy and services planning for persons with Down syndrome.

Potential costs and benefits of newborn screening for severe combined immunodeficiency.

OBJECTIVE: Severe combined immunodeficiency (SCID) is a rare, treatable disorder of the immune system. The incidence is unknown but may be more common than published estimates because infants frequently die of infection before diagnosis. SCID is a candidate for universal newborn screening, so there is a need to determine under which circumstances screening would be cost-effective. STUDY DESIGN: We assumed a screening program for SCID would use T-cell lymphopenia as the screening criterion and performed a cost-utility analysis comparing universal screening with screening only those with a family history of SCID. RESULTS: Assuming society is willing to pay $50,000 for every quality-adjusted life-year saved, a SCID screening test that cost less than $5 with a false-negative rate of 0.9% and a false-positive rate of 0.4% would be considered cost-effective. A nationwide screening program would cost an additional $23.9 million per year for screening costs but would result in 760 years of life saved per year of screening. The cost to detect 1 case of SCID would be $485,000. CONCLUSION: SCID screening could result in a large benefit to detected individuals, making screening relatively cost-effective in spite of the low incidence of the disease. However, an adequate test is critical to cost-effectiveness.

DNA diagnosis confirms hemoglobin deletion in newborn screen follow-up.

Molecular genetic confirmatory testing with polymerase chain reaction amplification is integral to neonatal hemoglobinopathy screening programs. In this study, we demonstrate applicability of polymerase chain reaction-based testing for the common deletions in blacks responsible for hereditary persistence of fetal hemoglobin. This approach will provide rapid diagnostic clarification in newborn screening follow-up.