Ensuring robust radiological risk assessment for wildlife: insights from the International Atomic Energy Agency EMRAS and MODARIA programmes.

In response to changing international recommendations and national requirements, a number of assessment approaches, and associated tools and models, have been developed over the last circa 20 years to assess radiological risk to wildlife. In this paper, we summarise international intercomparison exercises and scenario applications of available radiological assessment models for wildlife to aid future model users and those such as regulators who interpret assessments. Through our studies, we have assessed the fitness for purpose of various models and tools, identified the major sources of uncertainty and made recommendations on how the models and tools can best be applied to suit the purposes of an assessment. We conclude that the commonly used tiered or graded assessment tools are generally fit for purpose for conducting screening-level assessments of radiological impacts to wildlife. Radiological protection of the environment (or wildlife) is still a relatively new development within the overall system of radiation protection and environmental assessment approaches are continuing to develop. Given that some new/developing approaches differ considerably from the more established models/tools and there is an increasing international interest in developing approaches that support the effective regulation of multiple stressors (including radiation), we recommend the continuation of coordinated international programmes for model development, intercomparison and scenario testing.

Towards an ecological modelling approach for assessing ionizing radiation impact on wildlife populations.

The emphasis of the international system of radiological protection of the environment is to protect populations of flora and fauna. Throughout the MODARIA programmes, the United Nations' International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has facilitated knowledge sharing, data gathering and model development on the effect of radiation on wildlife. We present a summary of the achievements of MODARIA I and II on wildlife dose effect modelling, extending to a new sensitivity analysis and model development to incorporate other stressors. We reviewed evidence on historical doses and transgenerational effects on wildlife from radioactively contaminated areas. We also evaluated chemical population modelling approaches, discussing similarities and differences between chemical and radiological impact assessment in wildlife. We developed population modelling methodologies by sourcing life history and radiosensitivity data and evaluating the available models, leading to the formulation of an ecosystem-based mathematical approach. This resulted in an ecologically relevant conceptual population model, which we used to produce advice on the evaluation of risk criteria used in the radiological protection of the environment and a proposed modelling extension for chemicals. This work seeks to inform stakeholder dialogue on factors influencing wildlife population responses to radiation, including discussions on the ecological relevance of current environmental protection criteria. The area of assessment of radiation effects in wildlife is still developing with underlying data and models continuing to be improved. IAEA's ongoing support to facilitate the sharing of new knowledge, models and approaches to Member States is highlighted, and we give suggestions for future developments in this regard.

Radon-222 related influence on ambient gamma dose.

Ambient gamma dose, radon, and rainfall have been monitored in southern Bucharest, Romania, from 2010 to 2016. The seasonal cycle of background ambient gamma dose peaked between July and October (100-105 nSv h-1), with minimum values in February (75-80 nSv h-1), the time of maximum snow cover. Based on 10 m a.g.l. radon concentrations, the ambient gamma dose increased by around 1 nSv h-1 for every 5 Bq m-3 increase in radon. Radon variability attributable to diurnal changes in atmospheric mixing contributed less than 15 nSv h-1 to the overall variability in ambient gamma dose, a factor of 4 more than synoptic timescale changes in air mass fetch. By contrast, precipitation-related enhancements of the ambient gamma dose were 15-80 nSv h-1. To facilitate routine analysis, and account in part for occasional equipment failure, an automated method for identifying precipitation spikes in the ambient gamma dose was developed. Lastly, a simple model for predicting rainfall-related enhancement of the ambient gamma dose is tested against rainfall observations from events of contrasting duration and intensity. Results are also compared with those from previously published models of simple and complex formulation. Generally, the model performed very well. When simulations underestimated observations the absolute difference was typically less than the natural variability in ambient gamma dose arising from atmospheric mixing influences. Consequently, combined use of the automated event detection method and the simple model of this study could enable the ambient gamma dose "attention limit" (which indicates a potential radiological emergency) to be reduced from 200 to 400% above background to 25-50%.

Uncertainty of current understanding regarding OBT formation in plants.

Radiological impact models are important tools that support nuclear safety. For tritium, a special radionuclide that readily enters the life cycle, the processes involved in its transport into the environment are complex and inadequately understood. For example, tritiated water (HTO) enters plants by leaf and root uptake and is converted to organically bound tritium (OBT) in exchangeable and non-exchangeable forms; however, the observed OBT/HTO ratios in crops exhibit large variability and contradict the current models for routine releases. Non-routine or spike releases of tritium further complicate the prediction of OBT formation. The experimental data for a short and intense atmospheric contamination of wheat are presented together with various models' predictions. The experimental data on wheat demonstrate that the OBT formation is a long process, it is dependent on receptor location and stack dynamics, there are differences between night and day releases, and the HTO dynamics in leaf and ear is a very important contributor to OBT formation.

Carbon-14 dynamics in rice: an extension of the ORYZA2000 model.

Carbon-14 ((14)C) is a radionuclide of major interest in nuclear power production. The Fukushima accident changed the public attitude on the use of nuclear energy all over the world. In terms of nuclear safety, the need of quality-assured radiological models was emphasized by many international organizations, and for models used by decision-makers (i.e. regulatory environmental models and radiological models), a moderate conservatism, transparency, relative simplicity and user friendliness are required. Because the interaction between crops and the environment is complex and regulated by many feedback mechanisms, however, these requirements are difficult to accomplish. The present study makes a step forward regarding the development of a robust model dealing with food contamination after a short-term accidental emission and considers a single crop species, rice (Oryza sativa), one of the most widely used rice species. Old and more recent experimental data regarding the carbon dynamics in rice plants are reviewed, and a well-established crop growth model, ORYZA2000, is used and adapted in order to assess the dynamics of (14)C in rice after a short-term exposure to (14)CO(2). Here, the model is used to investigate the role of the genotype, management and weather on the concentration of radiocarbon at harvest.

Carbon-14 transfer into potato plants following a short exposure to an atmospheric 14CO2 emission: observations and model predictions.

To improve the understanding of the environmental (14)C behaviour, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) coordinated a Tritium and C-14 Working Group (T&C WG) in its EMRAS (Environmental Modelling for Radiation Safety) programme. One of the scenarios developed in the frame of T&C WG involved the prediction of time dependent (14)C concentrations in potato plants. The experimental data used in the scenario were obtained from a study in which potatoes (Solanum tuberosum cv. Romano) were exposed to atmospheric (14)CO(2) in a wind tunnel. The observations were used to test models that predict temporal changes in (14)C concentrations in leaves at each sampling time for each experiment and (14)C concentrations in tubers at the final harvest of each experiment. The experimental data on (14)C dynamics in leaves are poorly reproduced by most of the models, but the predicted concentrations in tubers are in good agreement with the observations.

An overview of organically bound tritium experiments in plants following a short atmospheric HTO exposure.

The need for a less conservative, but reliable risk assessment of accidental tritium releases is emphasized in the present debate on the nuclear energy future. The development of a standard conceptual model for accidental tritium releases must be based on the process level analysis and the appropriate experimental database. Tritium transfer from atmosphere to plants and the subsequent conversion into organically bound tritium (OBT) strongly depends on the plant characteristics, seasons, and meteorological conditions, which have a large variability. The present study presents an overview of the relevant experimental data for the short term exposure, including the unpublished information, also. Plenty of experimental data is provided for wheat, rice, and soybean and some for potato, bean, cherry tomato, radish, cabbage, and tangerine as well. Tritiated water (HTO) uptake by plants during the daytime and nighttime has an important role in further OBT synthesis. OBT formation in crops depends on the development stage, length, and condition of exposure. OBT translocation to the edible plant parts differs between the crops analyzed. OBT formation during the nighttime is comparable with that during the daytime. The present study is a preliminary step for the development of a robust model of crop contamination after an HTO accidental release.

Dynamic model for tritium transfer in an aquatic food chain.

Tritium ((3)H) is released from some nuclear facilities in relatively large quantities. It is a ubiquitous isotope because it enters straight into organisms, behaving essentially identically to its stable analogue (hydrogen). Tritium is a key radionuclide in the aquatic environment, in some cases, contributing significantly to the doses received by aquatic, non-human biota and by humans. The updated model presented here is based on more standardized, comprehensive assessments than previously used for the aquatic food chain, including the benthic flora and fauna, with an explicit application to the Danube ecosystem, as well as an extension to the special case of dissolved organic tritium (DOT). The model predicts the organically bound tritium (OBT) in the primary producers (the autotrophs, such as phytoplankton and algae) and in the consumers (the heterotrophs) using their bioenergetics, which involves the investigation of energy expenditure, losses, gains and efficiencies of transformations in the body. The model described in the present study intends to be more specific than a screening-level model, by including a metabolic approach and a description of the direct uptake of DOT in marine phytoplankton and invertebrates. For a better control of tritium transfer into the environment, not only tritiated water must be monitored, but also the other chemical forms and most importantly OBT, in the food chain.

Measured and modelled tritium concentrations in freshwater Barnes mussels (Elliptio complanata) exposed to an abrupt increase in ambient tritium levels.

To improve understanding of environmental tritium behaviour, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) included a Tritium and C-14 Working Group (WG) in its EMRAS (Environmental Modelling for Radiation Safety) program. One scenario considered by the WG involved the prediction of time-dependent tritium concentrations in freshwater mussels that were subjected to an abrupt increase in ambient tritium levels. The experimental data used in the scenario were obtained from a study in which freshwater Barnes mussels (Elliptio complanata) were transplanted from an area with background tritium concentrations to a small Canadian Shield lake that contains elevated tritium. The mussels were then sampled over 88 days, and concentrations of free-water tritium (HTO) and organically-bound tritium (OBT) were measured in the soft tissues to follow the build-up of tritium in the mussels over time. The HTO concentration in the mussels reached steady state with the concentration in lake water within one or two hours. Most models predicted a longer time (up to a few days) to equilibrium. All models under-predicted the OBT concentration in the mussels one hour after transplantation, but over-predicted the rate of OBT formation over the next 24h. Subsequent dynamics were not well modelled, although all participants predicted OBT concentrations that were within a factor of three of the observation at the end of the study period. The concentration at the final time point was over-predicted by all but one of the models. The relatively low observed concentration at this time was likely due to the loss of OBT by mussels during reproduction.

Retention of tritium in reference persons: a metabolic model. Derivation of parameters and application of the model to the general public and to workers.

Tritium ((3)H) is a radioactive isotope of hydrogen that is ubiquitous in environmental and biological systems. Following debate on the human health risk from exposure to tritium, there have been claims that the current biokinetic model recommended by the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) may underestimate tritium doses. A new generic model for tritium in mammals, based on energy metabolism and body composition, together with all its input data, has been described in a recent paper and successfully tested for farm and laboratory mammals. That model considers only dietary intake of tritium and was extended to humans. This paper presents the latest development of the human model with explicit consideration of brain energy metabolism. Model testing with human experimental data on organically bound tritium (OBT) in urine after tritiated water (HTO) or OBT intakes is presented. Predicted absorbed doses show a moderate increase for OBT intakes compared with doses recommended by the ICRP. Infants have higher tritium retention-a factor of 2 longer than the ICRP estimate. The highest tritium concentration is in adipose tissue, which has a very low radiobiological sensitivity. The ranges of uncertainty in retention and doses are investigated. The advantage of the new model is its ability to be applied to the interpretation of bioassay data.

Energy metabolism used as a tool to model the transfer of 14C and 3H in animals.

The transfer through the environment of (3)H and (14)C must be modelled differently than that of other radionuclides released from nuclear reactors because hydrogen and carbon enter straight into the life cycle. A solid understanding of the behaviour of (3)H and (14)C in the food chain is essential because (3)H may be released in large quantities from future thermonuclear reactors, and (14)C accumulates in the environment because of its long half-life. For the present study, the hypothesis that both (3)H and (14)C metabolism in mammals can be modelled based on the understanding of energy metabolism has been tested. Recently published results demonstrate that the loss rate of organically bound tritium and (14)C from tissues of laboratory and farm animals can be assessed based upon their specific metabolic rates and enthalpy of combustion; the same is true for human beings. The improved model presented here relates the dynamics of organically bound tritium and (14)C within organs to the whole body and has been expanded to account for the growth of ruminants. The improved model has been expanded and applied for (14)C transfer in wild mammals and has been modified to apply to birds.

The dynamic transfer of 3H and 14C in mammals: a proposed generic model.

Associated with the present debate regarding the potential revival of nuclear energy there is an increased interest in assessing the radiological risk to the public and also the environment. Tritium and (14)C are key radionuclides of interest in many circumstances (e.g. heavy water reactors, waste storage and fusion reactors). Because the stable analogues of these two radionuclides are integral to most biological compounds, their modelling should follow general principles from life sciences. In this paper, a model of the dynamics of (14)C and (3)H in mammals is proposed on the basis of metabolic understanding and of, as far as possible, readily available data (e.g. for organ composition and metabolism). The model is described together with validation tests (without calibration) for a range of farm animals. Despite simplifications, the model tests are encouraging for a range of animal types and products (tissues and milk), and further improvements are suggested.

Carbon-14 transfer into rice plants from a continuous atmospheric source: observations and model predictions.

Carbon-14 (14C) is one of the most important radionuclides from the perspective of dose estimation due to the nuclear fuel cycle. Ten years of monitoring data on 14C in airborne emissions, in atmospheric CO2 and in rice grain collected around the Tokai reprocessing plant (TRP) showed an insignificant radiological effect of the TRP-derived 14C on the public, but suggested a minor contribution of the TRP-derived 14C to atmospheric 14C concentrations, and an influence on 14C concentrations in rice grain at harvest. This paper also summarizes a modelling exercise (the so-called rice scenario of the IAEA's EMRAS program) in which 14C concentrations in air and rice predicted with various models using information on 14C discharge rates, meteorological conditions and so on were compared with observed concentrations. The modelling results showed that simple Gaussian plume models with different assumptions predict monthly averaged 14C concentrations in air well, even for near-field receptors, and also that specific activity and dynamic models were equally good for the prediction of inter-annual changes in 14C concentrations in rice grain. The scenario, however, offered little opportunity for comparing the predictive capabilities of these two types of models because the scenario involved a near-chronic release to the atmosphere. A scenario based on an episodic release and short-term, time-dependent observations is needed to establish the overall confidence in the predictions of environmental 14C models.

Modelling 3H and 14C transfer to farm animals and their products under steady state conditions.

The radionuclides (14)C and (3)H may both be released from nuclear facilities. These radionuclides are unusual, in that they are isotopes of macro-elements which form the basis of animal tissues, feed and, in the case of (3)H, water. There are few published values describing the transfer of (3)H and (14)C from feed to animal derived food products under steady state conditions. Approaches are described which enable the prediction of (14)C and (3)H transfer parameter values from readily available information on the stable H or C concentration of animal feeds, tissues and milk, water turnover rates, and feed intakes and digestibilities. We recommend that the concentration ratio between feed and animal product activity concentrations be used as it is less variable than the transfer coefficient (ratio between radionuclide activity concentration in animal milk or tissue to the daily intake of a radionuclide).

Reassessment of tritium dose coefficients for the general public.

Concerns of increased risk from tritium intake by humans have been claimed in the past. The arguments concerning the radiobiological effectiveness of tritium, its longer retention in the human body and the presence of tritium in the DNA hydration shell are analysed in this paper. A biokinetic model for tritiated water and organically bound tritium retention in the human body is used, based on a common approach for mammals using energy and hydrogen metabolism and tested separately with animal experiments. Extension to this model to humans considers the increased role of the brain, food quality and unique growth patterns of humans. Various ages and genders for Caucasians are considered. For an intake of tritium in organic forms in the diet, the retention for the female is of about a factor 2 compared with ICRP recommendations. Effective dose coefficients are estimated to be about a factor of 2 to 3 higher than those of the ICRP.

Towards a model for the dynamic transfer of tritium and carbon in mammals.

Available data have been analysed to test the hypothesis that both 3H and 14C transfer in mammals can be accounted for by an understanding of metabolism. Data obtained from various 14C and 3H experiments with rats and sheep have been analysed to assess the multi-component retention function of various organs and identify any relationship between half-times and component contribution. Our hypothesis was that component half-times for 14C and 3H are similar after intakes of organic compounds. Similarities in the tritium and carbon dynamics between rat and sheep were observed supporting the hypothesis. For fast and slow components of muscle half-time, allometric relationships have been derived. The results obtained could be used in the development of a human biokinetic model.

A metabolic derivation of tritium transfer coefficients in animal products.

Tritium is a potentially important environmental contaminant originating from the nuclear industry, and its behaviour in the environment is controlled by that of hydrogen. Animal food products represent a potentially important source of tritium in the human diet and a number of transfer coefficient values for tritium transfer to a limited number of animal products are available. In this paper we present an approach for the derivation of tritium transfer coefficients which is based on the metabolism of hydrogen in animals. The derived transfer coefficients separately account for transfer to and from free (i.e. water) and organically bound tritium. A novel aspect of the approach is that tritium transfer can be predicted for any animal product for which the required metabolic input parameters are available. The predicted transfer coefficients are compared to available independent data. Agreement is good (R2=0.97) with the exception of the transfer coefficient for transfer from tritiated water to organically bound tritium in ruminants. This may be attributable to the particular characteristics of ruminant digestion. We show that tritium transfer coefficients will vary in response to the metabolic status of an animal (e.g. stage of lactation, diet digestibility etc.) and that the use of a single transfer coefficient from diet to animal product is inappropriate. It is possible to derive concentration ratio values from the estimated transfer coefficients which relate the concentration of tritiated water and organically bound tritium in an animal product to their respective concentrations in the animals diet. These concentration ratios are shown to be less subject to metabolic variation and may be more useful radioecological parameters than transfer coefficients. For tritiated water the concentration ratio shows little variation between animal products ranging from 0.59 to 0.82. In the case of organically bound tritium the concentration ratios vary between animal products from 0.15 (goat milk) to 0.67 (eggs).