The United States COVID-19 Forecast Hub dataset.

Academic researchers, government agencies, industry groups, and individuals have produced forecasts at an unprecedented scale during the COVID-19 pandemic. To leverage these forecasts, the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) partnered with an academic research lab at the University of Massachusetts Amherst to create the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub. Launched in April 2020, the Forecast Hub is a dataset with point and probabilistic forecasts of incident cases, incident hospitalizations, incident deaths, and cumulative deaths due to COVID-19 at county, state, and national, levels in the United States. Included forecasts represent a variety of modeling approaches, data sources, and assumptions regarding the spread of COVID-19. The goal of this dataset is to establish a standardized and comparable set of short-term forecasts from modeling teams. These data can be used to develop ensemble models, communicate forecasts to the public, create visualizations, compare models, and inform policies regarding COVID-19 mitigation. These open-source data are available via download from GitHub, through an online API, and through R packages.

Discovery of GNE-502 as an orally bioavailable and potent degrader for estrogen receptor positive breast cancer.

Fulvestrant is an FDA-approved drug with a dual mechanism of action (MOA), acting as a full antagonist and degrader of the estrogen receptor protein. A significant limitation of fulvestrant is the dosing regimen required for efficacy. Due to its high lipophilicity and poor pharmacokinetic profile, fulvestrant needs to be administered through intramuscular injections which leads to injection site soreness. This route of administration also limits the dose and target occupancy in patients. We envisioned a best-in-class molecule that would function with the same dual MOA as fulvestrant, but with improved physicochemical properties and would be orally bioavailable. Herein we report our progress toward that goal, resulting in a new lead GNE-502 which addressed some of the liabilities of our previously reported lead molecule GNE-149.

GDC-9545 (Giredestrant): A Potent and Orally Bioavailable Selective Estrogen Receptor Antagonist and Degrader with an Exceptional Preclinical Profile for ER+ Breast Cancer.

Breast cancer remains a leading cause of cancer death in women, representing a significant unmet medical need. Here, we disclose our discovery efforts culminating in a clinical candidate, 35 (GDC-9545 or giredestrant). 35 is an efficient and potent selective estrogen receptor degrader (SERD) and a full antagonist, which translates into better antiproliferation activity than known SERDs (1, 6, 7, and 9) across multiple cell lines. Fine-tuning the physiochemical properties enabled once daily oral dosing of 35 in preclinical species and humans. 35 exhibits low drug-drug interaction liability and demonstrates excellent in vitro and in vivo safety profiles. At low doses, 35 induces tumor regressions either as a single agent or in combination with a CDK4/6 inhibitor in an ESR1Y537S mutant PDX or a wild-type ERα tumor model. Currently, 35 is being evaluated in Phase III clinical trials.

Venetoclax combines synergistically with FLT3 inhibition to effectively target leukemic cells in FLT3-ITD+ acute myeloid leukemia models.

FLT3 internal tandem duplication (FLT3-ITD) mutations account for ~25% of adult acute myeloid leukemia cases and are associated with poor prognosis. Venetoclax, a selective BCL-2 inhibitor, has limited monotherapy activity in relapsed/refractory acute myeloid leukemia with no responses observed in a small subset of FLT3-ITD+ patients. Further, FLT3-ITD mutations emerged at relapse following venetoclax monotherapy and combination therapy suggesting a potential mechanism of resistance. Therefore, we investigated the convergence of FLT3-ITD signaling on the BCL-2 family proteins and determined combination activity of venetoclax and FLT3-ITD inhibition in preclinical models. In vivo, venetoclax combined with quizartinib, a potent FLT3 inhibitor, showed greater anti-tumor efficacy and prolonged survival compared to monotherapies. In a patient-derived FLT3-ITD+ xenograft model, cotreatment with venetoclax and quizartinib at clinically relevant doses had greater anti-tumor activity in the tumor microenvironment compared to quizartinib or venetoclax alone. Use of selective BCL-2 family inhibitors further identified a role for BCL-2, BCL-XL and MCL-1 in mediating survival in FLT3-ITD+ cells in vivo and highlighted the need to target all three proteins for greatest anti-tumor activity. Assessment of these combinations in vitro revealed synergistic combination activity for quizartinib and venetoclax but not for quizartinib combined with BCL-XL or MCL-1 inhibition. FLT3-ITD inhibition was shown to indirectly target both BCL-XL and MCL-1 through modulation of protein expression, thereby priming cells toward BCL-2 dependence for survival. These data demonstrate that FLT3-ITD inhibition combined with venetoclax has impressive anti-tumor activity in FLT3-ITD+ acute myeloid leukemia preclinical models and provides strong mechanistic rational for clinical studies.

Discovery of GNE-149 as a Full Antagonist and Efficient Degrader of Estrogen Receptor alpha for ER+ Breast Cancer.

Estrogen receptor alpha (ERα) is a well-validated drug target for ER-positive (ER+) breast cancer. Fulvestrant is FDA-approved to treat ER+ breast cancer and works through two mechanisms-as a full antagonist and selective estrogen receptor degrader (SERD)-but lacks oral bioavailability. Thus, we envisioned a "best-in-class" molecule with the same dual mechanisms as fulvestrant, but with significant oral exposure. Through lead optimization, we discovered a tool molecule 12 (GNE-149) with improved degradation and antiproliferative activity in both MCF7 and T47D cells. To illustrate the binding mode and key interactions of this scaffold with ERα, we obtained a cocrystal structure of 6 that showed ionic interaction of azetidine with Asp351 residue. Importantly, 12 showed favorable metabolic stability and good oral exposure. 12 exhibited antagonist effect in the uterus and demonstrated robust dose-dependent efficacy in xenograft models.

Discovery of a C-8 hydroxychromene as a potent degrader of estrogen receptor alpha with improved rat oral exposure over GDC-0927.

Phenolic groups are responsible for the high clearance and low oral bioavailability of the estrogen receptor alpha (ERα) clinical candidate GDC-0927. An exhaustive search for a backup molecule with improved pharmacokinetic (PK) properties identified several metabolically stable analogs, although in general at the expense of the desired potency and degradation efficiency. C-8 hydroxychromene 30 is the first example of a phenol-containing chromene that not only maintained excellent potency but also exhibited 10-fold higher oral exposure in rats. The improved in vivo clearance in rat was hypothesized to be the result of C-8 hydroxy group being sterically protected from glucuronide conjugation. The excellent potency underscores the possibility of replacing the presumed indispensable phenolic group at C-6 or C-7 of the chromene core. Co-crystal structures were obtained to highlight the change in key interactions and rationalize the retained potency.

Unexpected equivalent potency of a constrained chromene enantiomeric pair rationalized by co-crystal structures in complex with estrogen receptor alpha.

Despite tremendous progress made in the understanding of the ERα signaling pathway and the approval of many therapeutic agents, ER+ breast cancer continues to be a leading cause of cancer death in women. We set out to discover compounds with a dual mechanism of action in which they not only compete with estradiol for binding with ERα, but also can induce the degradation of the ERα protein itself. We were attracted to the constrained chromenes containing a tetracyclic benzopyranobenzoxepine scaffold, which were reported as potent selective estrogen receptor modulators (SERMs). Incorporation of a fluoromethyl azetidine side chain yielded highly potent and efficacious selective estrogen receptor degraders (SERDs), such as 16aa and surprisingly, also its enantiomeric pair 16ab. Co-crystal structures of the enantiomeric pair 16aa and 16ab in complex with ERα revealed default (mimics the A-D rings of endogenous ligand estradiol) and core-flipped binding modes, rationalizing the equivalent potency observed for these enantiomers in the ERα degradation and MCF-7 anti-proliferation assays.

Physiologically based pharmacokinetic model for composite nanodevices: effect of charge and size on in vivo disposition.

PURPOSE: To characterize temporal exposure and elimination of 5 gold/dendrimer composite nanodevices (CNDs) (5 nm positive, negative, and neutral, 11 nm negative, 22 nm positive) in mice using a physiologically based mathematical model. METHODS: 400 ug of CNDs is injected intravenously to mice bearing melanoma cell lines. Gold content is determined from plasma and tissue samples using neutron activation analysis. A physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model is developed for 5 nm positive, negative, and neutral and 11 nm negative nanoparticles and extrapolated to 22 nm positive particles. A global sensitivity analysis is performed for estimated model parameters. RESULTS: Negative and neutral particles exhibited similar distribution profiles. Unique model parameter estimates and distribution profiles explain similarities and differences relative to positive particles. The model also explains mechanisms of elimination by kidney and reticuloendothelial uptake in liver and spleen, which varies with particle size and charge. CONCLUSION: Since the PBPK model can capture the diverse temporal profiles of non-targeted nanoparticles, we propose that when specific binding ligands are lacking, size and charge of nanodevices govern most of their in vivo interactions.