Squeezed from the top: "Social Outburst" (2019) and elite overproduction. A study of the dynamics of Chilean political instability from the approach of Structural Demographic Theory.

On October 18, 2019, Chile experienced the most important social upheaval since the country regained democracy in the late 1980s. The "Social Outbreak" surprised economic and political elites and seemed paradoxical to the international community who had often praised Chile as a model of successful development. In this paper, we used structural-demographic theory to analyze the interaction between the overproduction of elites and the stagnation in the relative income of the population as the underlying structural cause of Chilean political instability. This theory was able to predict the three most significant instances of political tension in the recent history of Chile: the crisis of the late 1960s that culminated in the coup d'état of 1973, popular mobilizations during the 1980s, and the recent student mobilizations and social upheaval. Our results suggest that, at least during the period 1938-2019, Chilean sociopolitical dynamics is determined by the same structural drivers.

SARS-COV2/COVID-19 en Colombia: tendencias, predicciones y tensiones sobre el sistema sanitario / SARS-C0V2/COVID-19 in Colombia: tendencies, predictions, and tensions about health system

RESUMEN Objetivo Analizar la evolución temporal de la primera etapa del COVID-19 en Colombia a través del modelo SIRD. Métodos Se analizó la evolución temporal del COVID-19 según los individuos infectados en Colombia del 6 de marzo al 15 de abril de 2020. Se realizó el modelo SIRD modificando la tasa de transmisión (b) bajo tres escenarios: 1) cuarentena hasta el 1 de julio, 2) cuarentena flexible., hasta el 11 de mayo con un b del 4%, y 3) cuarentena flexible2 hasta el 11 de mayo con b del 8%, con el fin de predecir el número de casos totales y el 5% de infectados en UCI para contrastarlo con el número de camas y personal UCI. Resultados Los escenarios mostraron que levantar la cuarentena el 11 de mayo significará un aumento en el número de infectados, entre 54 105 a 116 081 individuos con COVID-19. Así mismo, la rápida aceleración en la tasa de contagios se traduce en una mayor demanda de camas y personal en UCI: en el escenario de cuarentena flexible2 se colapsarían las 2 650 camas disponibles y se necesitaría de 5 intensivitas y 4 enfermeras por paciente al 1 julio. Conclusión Las medidas de distanciamiento social obligatorias contribuyen al retraso de la saturación del sistema de salud; sin embargo, son difíciles de sostener en el tiempo desde una perspectiva económica. Por lo tanto, para tener una distensión de la cuarentena es necesario adoptar medidas para ampliar la capacidad del sistema de salud y así evitar su colapso.(AU)

ABSTRACT Objective To analyze the temporal progress in the early stage of COVID-19 in Colombia using the SIRD model. Methods We analyzed the temporal progress of COVID-19 based on the number of infected persons between March 6th and April 15th, 2020. The SIRD model was implemented with variation in the rate of transmission (b) in three ways. A. Quarantine until July 11. 2. B. Flexible quarantine, [b=4%]. C. Flexible quarantine2 [b=8%]. Consecutively, we aimed to predict the number of total cases and 5% of infected persons in ICU to match them with the hospital beds and ICU staff. Results The results show that the number of COVID-19 cases will increase from 54 105 to 116 081 approximately, if the quarantine is lifted on May 11. If the infection rate increase, more hospital beds and a bigger ICU staff will be mandatory. The currently 2 650 beds won't be enough in the flexible quarantine2, and five intensive care specialist and four nurses per patient will be needed. Conclusion Measures like mandatory social distancing help delay the saturation of the health care system. However, it's impracticable to maintain them due to a possible economic crisis. Therefore, it's necessary to take action to enhance the ability of the health care system to avoid a collapse.(AU)

SARS-COV2/COVID-19 en Colombia: tendencias, predicciones y tensiones sobre el sistema sanitario / SARS-C0V2/COVID-I9 in Colombia: tendencies, predictions, and tensions about health system

RESUMEN Objetivo Analizar la evolución temporal de la primera etapa del COVID-19 en Colombia a través del modelo SIRD. Métodos Se analizó la evolución temporal del COVID-19 según los individuos infectados en Colombia del 6 de marzo al 15 de abril de 2020. Se realizó el modelo SIRD modificando la tasa de transmisión (b) bajo tres escenarios: 1) cuarentena hasta el 1 de julio, 2) cuarentena flexible., hasta el 11 de mayo con un b del 4%, y 3) cuarentena flexible2 hasta el 11 de mayo con b del 8%, con el fin de predecir el número de casos totales y el 5% de infectados en UCI para contrastarlo con el número de camas y personal UCI. Resultados Los escenarios mostraron que levantar la cuarentena el 11 de mayo significará un aumento en el número de infectados, entre 54 105 a 116 081 individuos con COVID-19. Así mismo, la rápida aceleración en la tasa de contagios se traduce en una mayor demanda de camas y personal en UCI: en el escenario de cuarentena flexible2 se colapsarían las 2 650 camas disponibles y se necesitaría de 5 intensivitas y 4 enfermeras por paciente al 1 julio. Conclusión Las medidas de distanciamiento social obligatorias contribuyen al retraso de la saturación del sistema de salud; sin embargo, son difíciles de sostener en el tiempo desde una perspectiva económica. Por lo tanto, para tener una distensión de la cuarentena es necesario adoptar medidas para ampliar la capacidad del sistema de salud y así evitar su colapso.(AU)

ABSTRACT Objective To analyze the temporal progress in the early stage of COVID-19 in Colombia using the SIRD model. Methods We analyzed the temporal progress of COVID-19 based on the number of infected persons between March 6th and April 15th, 2020. The SIRD model was implemented with variation in the rate of transmission (b) in three ways. A. Quarantine until July 11. 2. B. Flexible quarantine, [b=4%]. C. Flexible quarantine2 [b=8%]. Consecutively, we aimed to predict the number of total cases and 5% of infected persons in ICU to match them with the hospital beds and ICU staff. Results The results show that the number of COVID-19 cases will increase from 54 105 to 116 081 approximately, if the quarantine is lifted on May 11. If the infection rate increase, more hospital beds and a bigger ICU staff will be mandatory. The currently 2 650 beds won't be enough in the flexible quarantine2, and five intensive care specialist and four nurses per patient will be needed. Conclusion Measures like mandatory social distancing help delay the saturation of the health care system. However, it's impracticable to maintain them due to a possible economic crisis. Therefore, it's necessary to take action to enhance the ability of the health care system to avoid a collapse.(AU)

[SARS-C0V.2/COVID-I9 in Colombia: tendencies, predictions, and tensions about health system]. / SARS-COV.2/COVID-19 en Colombia: tendencias, predicciones y tensiones sobre el sistema sanitario.

OBJECTIVE: To analyze the temporal progress in the early stage of COVID-19 in Colombia using the SIRD model. METHODS: We analyzed the temporal progress of COVID-19 based on the number of infected persons between March 6th and April 15th, 2020. The SIRD model was implemented with variation in the rate of transmission (b) in three ways. A. Quarantine until July 11. 2. B. Flexible quarantine, [b=4%]. C. Flexible quarantine2 [b=8%]. Consecutively, we aimed to predict the number of total cases and 5% of infected persons in ICU to match them with the hospital beds and ICU staff. RESULTS: The results show that the number of COVID-19 cases will increase from 54 105 to 116 081 approximately, if the quarantine is lifted on May 11. If the infection rate increase, more hospital beds and a bigger ICU staff will be mandatory. The currently 2 650 beds won't be enough in the flexible quarantine2, and five intensive care specialist and four nurses per patient will be needed. CONCLUSION: Measures like mandatory social distancing help delay the saturation of the health care system. However, it's impracticable to maintain them due to a possible economic crisis. Therefore, it's necessary to take action to enhance the ability of the health care system to avoid a collapse.