Merging socioecological variables to predict risk of Chagas disease.

How far are we from predicting the occurrence of zoonotic diseases? In this paper we have made use of both socioecological and ecological variables to predict Chagas disease occurrence. Chagas disease involves, Trypanosoma cruzi, a complex life-cycle parasite which requires two hosts: blood-feeding triatomine insects and vertebrate hosts including humans. We have used a common risk assessment method combined with datasets that imply critical environmental and socioeconomic drivers of Chagas dynamics to predict the occurrence of this disease. We also carried out a network analysis to assess the interactions among triatomines and mammal host species given their human contact via whether hunted, domesticated or associated with anthropogenic landscapes in Mexico. We found that social backwardness variation, lack of health services and altitude had the largest relative influence Chagas events. Triatoma pallidipennis made use of the largest host diversity. Host species shared by the highest number of different triatomines were a woodrat, the highly appreciated bushmeat, and racoon. These results indicate both the predominance of socio-economic factors over ecological ones, and how close we are from predicting zoonotic diseases.

A reduction in ecological niche for Trypanosoma cruzi-infected triatomine bugs.

BACKGROUND: Theory predicts that parasites can affect and thus drive their hosts' niche. Testing this prediction is key, especially for vector-borne diseases including Chagas disease. Here, we examined the niche use of seven triatomine species that occur in Mexico, based on whether they are infected or not with Trypanosoma cruzi, the vectors and causative parasites of Chagas disease, respectively. Presence data for seven species of triatomines (Triatoma barberi, T. dimidiata, T. longipennis, T. mazzottii, T. pallidipennis, T. phyllosoma and T. picturata) were used and divided into populations infected and not infected by T. cruzi. Species distribution models were generated with Maxent 3.3.3k. Using distribution models, niche analysis tests of amplitude and distance to centroids were carried out for infected vs non-infected populations within species. RESULTS: Infected populations of bugs of six out of the seven triatomine species showed a reduced ecological space compared to non-infected populations. In all but one case (T. pallidipennis), the niche used by infected populations was close to the niche centroid of its insect host. CONCLUSIONS: Trypanosoma cruzi may have selected for a restricted niche amplitude in triatomines, although we are unaware of the underlying reasons. Possibly the fact that T. cruzi infection bears a fitness cost for triatomines is what narrows the niche breadth of the insects. Our results imply that Chagas control programmes should consider whether bugs are infected in models of triatomine distribution.