Feasibility of forecasting future critical care bed availability using bed management data.

OBJECTIVES: This project aims to determine the feasibility of predicting future critical care bed availability using data-driven computational forecast modelling and routinely collected hospital bed management data. METHODS: In this proof-of-concept, single-centre data informatics feasibility study, regression-based and classification data science techniques were applied retrospectively to prospectively collect routine hospital-wide bed management data to forecast critical care bed capacity. The availability of at least one critical care bed was forecasted using a forecast horizon of 1, 7 and 14 days in advance. RESULTS: We demonstrated for the first time the feasibility of forecasting critical care bed capacity without requiring detailed patient-level data using only routinely collected hospital bed management data and interpretable models. Predictive performance for bed availability 1 day in the future was better than 14 days (mean absolute error 1.33 vs 1.61 and area under the curve 0.78 vs 0.73, respectively). By analysing feature importance, we demonstrated that the models relied mainly on critical care and temporal data rather than data from other wards in the hospital. DISCUSSION: Our data-driven forecasting tool only required hospital bed management data to forecast critical care bed availability. This novel approach means no patient-sensitive data are required in the modelling and warrants further work to refine this approach in future bed availability forecast in other hospital wards. CONCLUSIONS: Data-driven critical care bed availability prediction was possible. Further investigations into its utility in multicentre critical care settings or in other clinical settings are warranted.

Effectiveness of a symptom-clinic intervention delivered by general practitioners with an extended role for people with multiple and persistent physical symptoms in England: the Multiple Symptoms Study 3 pragmatic, multicentre, parallel-group, individually randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: People with multiple and persistent physical symptoms have impaired quality of life and poor experiences of health care. We aimed to evaluate the effectiveness of a community-based symptom-clinic intervention in people with multiple and persistent physical symptoms, hypothesising that this symptoms clinic plus usual care would be superior to usual care only. METHODS: The Multiple Symptoms Study 3 was a pragmatic, multicentre, parallel-group, individually randomised controlled trial conducted in 108 general practices in the UK National Health Service in four regions of England between Dec 6, 2018, and June 30, 2023. Participants were individually randomised (1:1) to the symptom-clinic intervention plus usual care or to usual care only via a computer-generated, pseudo-random list stratified by trial centre. Allocation was done by the trial statistician and concealed with a centralised, web-based randomisation system; masking participants was not possible due to the nature of the intervention. The symptom-clinic intervention was a sequence of up to four medical consultations that aimed to elicit a detailed clinical history, fully hear and validate the participant, offer rational explanations for symptoms, and assist the participant to develop ways of managing their symptoms; it was delivered by general practitioners with an extended role. The primary outcome was Patient Health Questionnaire-15 (PHQ-15) score 52 weeks after randomisation, analysed by intention to treat. The trial is registered on the ISRCTN registry (ISRCTN57050216). FINDINGS: 354 participants were randomly assigned; 178 (50%) were assigned to receive the community-based symptoms clinic plus usual care and 176 (50%) were assigned to receive usual care only. At the primary-outcome point of 52 weeks, PHQ-15 scores were 14·1 (SD 3·7) in the group receiving usual care and 12·2 (4·5) in the group receiving the intervention. The adjusted between-group difference of -1·82 (95% CI -2·67 to -0·97) was statistically significantly in favour of the intervention group (p<0·0001). There were 39 adverse events in the group receiving usual care and 36 adverse events in the group receiving the intervention. There were no statistically significant between-group differences in the proportion of participants who had non-serious adverse events (-0·03, 95% CI -0·11 to 0·05) or serious adverse events (0·02, -0·02 to 0·07). No serious adverse event was deemed to be related to the trial intervention. INTERPRETATION: Our symptom-clinic intervention, which focused on explaining persistent symptoms to participants in order to support self-management, led to sustained improvement in multiple and persistent physical symptoms. FUNDING: UK National Institute for Health and Care Research.

Feasibility of comparing medical management and surgery (with neurosurgery or stereotactic radiosurgery) with medical management alone in people with symptomatic brain cavernoma - protocol for the Cavernomas: A Randomised Effectiveness (CARE) pilot trial.

INTRODUCTION: The top research priority for cavernoma, identified by a James Lind Alliance Priority setting partnership was 'Does treatment (with neurosurgery or stereotactic radiosurgery) or no treatment improve outcome for people diagnosed with a cavernoma?' This pilot randomised controlled trial (RCT) aims to determine the feasibility of answering this question in a main phase RCT. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: We will perform a pilot phase, parallel group, pragmatic RCT involving approximately 60 children or adults with mental capacity, resident in the UK or Ireland, with an unresected symptomatic brain cavernoma. Participants will be randomised by web-based randomisation 1:1 to treatment with medical management and with surgery (neurosurgery or stereotactic radiosurgery) versus medical management alone, stratified by prerandomisation preference for type of surgery. In addition to 13 feasibility outcomes, the primary clinical outcome is symptomatic intracranial haemorrhage or new persistent/progressive focal neurological deficit measured at 6 monthly intervals. An integrated QuinteT Recruitment Intervention (QRI) evaluates screening logs, audio recordings of recruitment discussions, and interviews with recruiters and patients/parents/carers to identify and address barriers to participation. A Patient Advisory Group has codesigned the study and will oversee its progress. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: This study was approved by the Yorkshire and The Humber-Leeds East Research Ethics Committee (21/YH/0046). We will submit manuscripts to peer-reviewed journals, describing the findings of the QRI and the Cavernomas: A Randomised Evaluation (CARE) pilot trial. We will present at national specialty meetings. We will disseminate a plain English summary of the findings of the CARE pilot trial to participants and public audiences with input from, and acknowledgement of, the Patient Advisory Group. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN41647111.

Comparing inpatient management of chronic pelvic pain flares before and after the COVID-19 pandemic.

Abstract: Patients with chronic pelvic pain (CPP) may experience pain exacerbations requiring hospital admissions. Due to the effects of backlogged elective surgeries and outpatient gynaecology appointments resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic, we hypothesised that there would be an increased number of women admitted with CPP flares. We conducted a retrospective review of all acute gynaecology admissions at the Royal Infirmary of Edinburgh from July to December 2018 (pre-COVID) and 2021 (post-COVID lockdown). We collected information on the proportion of emergency admissions due to CPP, inpatient investigations and subsequent management. Average total indicative hospital inpatient costs for women with CPP were calculated using NHS National Cost Collection data guidance. There was no significant difference in the number of emergency admissions due to pelvic pain before (153/507) and after (160/461) the COVID-19 pandemic. As high as 33 and 31% had a background history of CPP, respectively. Across both timepoints, investigations in women with CPP had low diagnostic yield: <25% had abnormal imaging findings and 0% had positive vaginal swab cultures. Women with CPP received significantly more inpatient morphine, pain team reviews and were more likely to be discharged with strong opioids. Total yearly inpatient costs were £170,104 and £179,156 in 2018 and 2021, respectively. Overall, emergency admission rates for managing CPP flares was similar before and after the COVID-19 pandemic. Inpatient resource use for women with CPP remains high, investigations have low diagnostic yield and frequent instigation of opiates on discharge may risk dependence. Improved community care of CPP is needed to reduce emergency gynaecology resource utilisation. Lay summary: Existing treatments for chronic pelvic pain (CPP) and endometriosis focus on surgery or hormone medication, but these are often ineffective or associated with unacceptable side-effects. As a result, women continue to experience chronic pain and often have 'flares' of worsening pain that may lead to hospital admission. The COVID-19 pandemic resulted in backlogged gynaecology clinics and surgeries. The aim of this study was to compare the management of emergency pelvic pain admissions for women with CPP before and after COVID-19. We also aimed to better understand their in-hospital management and estimate their hospital length of stay costs. We did not find an increase in CPP patients admitted for pelvic pain flares after the COVID-19 lockdown. Women with CPP often undergo multiple hospital tests and are often prescribed with strong pain medications which can cause long-term problems. Efforts are needed to improve long-term pain management for women with CPP.

Understanding patient barriers and facilitators to uptake of lung screening using low dose computed tomography: a mixed methods scoping review of the current literature.

BACKGROUND: Targeted lung cancer screening is effective in reducing mortality by upwards of twenty percent. However, screening is not universally available and uptake is variable and socially patterned. Understanding screening behaviour is integral to designing a service that serves its population and promotes equitable uptake. We sought to review the literature to identify barriers and facilitators to screening to inform the development of a pilot lung screening study in Scotland. METHODS: We used Arksey and O'Malley's scoping review methodology and PRISMA-ScR framework to identify relevant literature to meet the study aims. Qualitative, quantitative and mixed methods primary studies published between January 2000 and May 2021 were identified and reviewed by two reviewers for inclusion, using a list of search terms developed by the study team and adapted for chosen databases. RESULTS: Twenty-one articles met the final inclusion criteria. Articles were published between 2003 and 2021 and came from high income countries. Following data extraction and synthesis, findings were organised into four categories: Awareness of lung screening, Enthusiasm for lung screening, Barriers to lung screening, and Facilitators or ways of promoting uptake of lung screening. Awareness of lung screening was low while enthusiasm was high. Barriers to screening included fear of a cancer diagnosis, low perceived risk of lung cancer as well as practical barriers of cost, travel and time off work. Being health conscious, provider endorsement and seeking reassurance were all identified as facilitators of screening participation. CONCLUSIONS: Understanding patient reported barriers and facilitators to lung screening can help inform the implementation of future lung screening pilots and national lung screening programmes.

Study protocol for the Multiple Symptoms Study 3: a pragmatic, randomised controlled trial of a clinic for patients with persistent (medically unexplained) physical symptoms.

INTRODUCTION: Persistent physical symptoms (which cannot be adequately attributed to physical disease) affect around 1 million people (2% of adults) in the UK. They affect patients' quality of life and account for at least one third of referrals from General Practitioners (GPs) to specialists. These referrals give patients little benefit but have a real cost to health services time and diagnostic resources. The symptoms clinic has been designed to help people make sense of persistent physical symptoms (especially if medical tests have been negative) and to reduce the impact of symptoms on daily life. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: This pragmatic, multicentre, randomised controlled trial will assess the clinical and cost-effectiveness of the symptoms clinic intervention plus usual care compared with usual care alone. Patients were identified through GP searches and mail-outs and recruited by the central research team. 354 participants were recruited and individually randomised (1:1). The primary outcome is the self-reported Physical Health Questionnaire-15 at 52 weeks postrandomisation. Secondary outcome measures include the EuroQol 5 dimension 5 level and healthcare resource use. Outcome measures will also be collected at 13 and 26 weeks postrandomisation. A process evaluation will be conducted including consultation content analysis and interviews with participants and key stakeholders. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Ethics approval has been obtained via Greater Manchester Central Research Ethics Committee (Reference 18/NW/0422). The results of the trial will be submitted for publication in peer-reviewed journals, presented at relevant conferences and disseminated to trial participants and patient interest groups. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN57050216.

Optimizing the implementation of lung cancer screening in Scotland: Focus group participant perspectives in the LUNGSCOT study.

INTRODUCTION: Targeted lung cancer screening is effective in reducing lung cancer and all-cause mortality according to major trials in the United Kingdom and Europe. However, the best ways of implementing screening in local communities requires an understanding of the population the programme will serve. We undertook a study to explore the views of those potentially eligible for, and to identify potential barriers and facilitators to taking part in, lung screening, to inform the development of a feasibility study. METHODS: Men and women aged 45-70, living in urban and rural Scotland, and either self-reported people who smoke or who recently quit, were invited to take part in the study via research agency Taylor McKenzie. Eleven men and 14 women took part in three virtual focus groups exploring their views on lung screening. Focus group transcripts were transcribed and analysed using thematic analysis, assisted by QSR NVivo. FINDINGS: Three overarching themes were identified: (1) Knowledge, awareness and acceptability of lung screening, (2) Barriers and facilitators to screening and (3) Promoting screening and implementation ideas. Participants were largely supportive of lung screening in principle and described the importance of the early detection of cancer. Emotional and psychological concerns as well as system-level and practical issues were discussed as posing barriers and facilitators to lung screening. CONCLUSIONS: Understanding the views of people potentially eligible for a lung health check can usefully inform the development of a further study to test the feasibility and acceptability of lung screening in Scotland. PATIENT OR PUBLIC CONTRIBUTION: The LUNGSCOT study has convened a patient advisory group to advise on all aspects of study development and implementation. Patient representatives commented on the focus group study design, study materials and ethics application, and two representatives read the focus group transcripts.

Generating EQ-5D-5L health utility scores from BASDAI and BASFI: a mapping study in patients with axial spondyloarthritis using longitudinal UK registry data.

BACKGROUND: Preference-based health-state utility values (HSUVs), such as the EuroQol five-dimensional questionnaire (EQ-5D-5L), are needed to calculate quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) for cost-effectiveness analyses. However, these are rarely used in clinical trials of interventions in axial spondyloarthritis (axSpA). In these cases, mapping can be used to predict HSUVs. OBJECTIVE: To develop mapping algorithms to estimate EQ-5D-5L HSUVs from the Bath Ankylosing Disease Activity Index (BASDAI) and the Bath Ankylosing Spondylitis Functional Index (BASFI). METHODS: Data from the British Society for Rheumatology Biologics Register in Ankylosing Spondylitis (BSRBR-AS) provided 5122 observations with complete BASDAI, BASFI, and EQ-5D-5L responses covering the full range of disease severity. We compared direct mapping using adjusted limited dependent variable mixture models (ALDVMMs) and optional inclusion of the gap between full health and the next feasible value with indirect response mapping using ordered probit (OPROBIT) and generalised ordered probit (GOPROBIT) models. Explanatory variables included BASDAI, BASFI, and age. Metrics to assess model goodness-of-fit and performance/accuracy included Akaike and Bayesian information criteria (AIC/BIC), mean absolute error (MAE) and root mean square error (RMSE), plotting predictive vs. observed estimates across the range of BASDAI/BASFI and comparing simulated data with the original data set for the preferred/best model. RESULTS: Overall, the ALDVMM models that did not formally include the gap between full health and the next feasible value outperformed those that did. The four-component mixture models (with squared terms included) performed better than the three-component models. Response mapping using GOPROBIT (no squared terms included) or OPROBIT (with squared terms included) offered the next best performing models after the three-component ALDVMM (with squared terms). Simulated data of the preferred model (ALDVMM with four-components) did not significantly underestimate uncertainty across most of the range of EQ-5D-5L values, however the proportion of data at full health was underrepresented, likely due in part to model fitting on a small number of observations at this point in the actual data (4%). CONCLUSIONS: The mapping algorithms developed in this study enabled the generation of EQ-5D-5L utilities from BASDAI/BASFI. The indirect mapping equations reported for the EQ-5D-5L facilitate the calculation of the EQ-5D-5L utility scores using other UK and country-specific value sets.

Exercise as an Airway Clearance Technique in people with Cystic Fibrosis (ExACT-CF): rationale and study protocol for a randomised pilot trial.

Background: Chest physiotherapy is an established cornerstone of care for people with cystic fibrosis (pwCF), but is often burdensome. Guidelines recommend at least one chest physiotherapy session daily, using various airway clearance techniques (ACTs). Exercise (with huffs and coughs) may offer an alternative ACT, however the willingness of pwCF to be randomised into a trial needs testing. The 'ExACT-CF: Exercise as an Airway Clearance Technique in people with Cystic Fibrosis' trial will test the feasibility of recruiting pwCF to be randomised to continue usual care (chest physiotherapy) or replace it with exercise ACT (ExACT) for 28-days. Secondary aims include determining the short-term clinical impact (and safety) of stopping routine chest physiotherapy and replacing it with ExACT, and effects on physical activity, sleep, mood, quality of life and treatment burden, alongside preliminary health economic measures and acceptability. Methods: Multi-centre, two-arm, randomised (1:1 allocation using minimisation), pilot trial at two sites. Fifty pwCF (≥10 years, FEV 1 >40% predicted, stable on Elexacaftor/Tezacaftor/Ivacaftor (ETI)) will be randomised to an individually-customised ExACT programme (≥once daily aerobic exercise of ≥20-minutes duration at an intensity that elicits deep breathing, with huffs and coughs), or usual care. After baseline assessments, secondary outcomes will be assessed after 28-days, with additional home lung function and exacerbation questionnaires at 7, 14 and 21-days, physical activity and sleep monitoring throughout, and embedded qualitative and health-economic components. Feasibility measures include recruitment, retention, measurement completion, adverse events, interviews exploring the acceptability of trial procedures, and a trial satisfaction questionnaire. Discussion: Co-designed with the UK CF community, the ExACT-CF pilot trial is the first multi-centre RCT to test the feasibility of recruiting pwCF stable on ETI into a trial investigating ExACT. This pilot trial will inform the feasibility, design, management, likely external validity for progression to a main phase randomised controlled trial. Registration: Clinicaltrials.gov ( NCT05482048).

Cystic fibrosis (CF) is the UK's most common inherited genetic condition and affects > 10,500 people. CF causes problems with the movement of salt and water in the body, resulting in sticky mucus building up, mostly in the lungs and gut. Thick mucus in the airways leads to repeated infections which can damage the lungs. Chest physiotherapy is routinely prescribed to keep pwCF healthy, by loosening and clearing sticky, thick mucus from the airways. However, many find it time-consuming and burdensome. People with CF (pwCF) have asked if doing exercise could have the same effect for clearing mucus. Surveys show that many pwCF have occasionally replaced chest physiotherapy with exercise for airway clearance. We also showed that many pwCF, their families, physiotherapists and doctors in the UK consider that hard exercise with huffs and coughs may be able to clear mucus from the airways. We now need to know if they would be willing to take part in research that asks some to stop chest physiotherapy and do intense exercise with huffs and coughs instead. We will study 50 pwCF (> 10 years old) for 28 days. We will ask half to continue their usual care, and half to stop chest physiotherapy and do exercise that gets them breathing deeply (with huffs and coughs) instead. We will see if people are willing to start and continue with such a study and what they think of the processes. We will also see how stopping chest physiotherapy and replacing it with exercise affects measurements of their lung function. Within the study we will talk with pwCF and members of their CF team to understand their experiences. This information will tell us whether a larger study can answer whether certain forms of exercise can safely be used as an alternative to chest physiotherapy.

The Arabin pessary to prevent preterm birth in women with a twin pregnancy and a short cervix: the STOPPIT 2 RCT.

BACKGROUND: Preterm birth is common in twins and accounts for significant mortality and morbidity. There are no effective preventative treatments. Some studies have suggested that, in twin pregnancy complicated by a short cervix, the Arabin pessary, which fits around the cervix and can be inserted as an outpatient procedure, reduces preterm birth and prevents neonatal morbidity. OBJECTIVE: STOPPIT 2 aimed to evaluate the clinical utility of the Arabin cervical pessary in preventing preterm birth in women with a twin pregnancy and a short cervix. DESIGN: STOPPIT 2 was a pragmatic, open label, multicentre randomised controlled trial with two treatment group - the Arabin pessary plus standard care (intervention) and standard care alone (control). Participants were initially recruited into the screening phase of the study, when cervical length was measured. Women with a measured cervical length of ≤ 35 mm were then recruited into the treatment phase of the study. An economic evaluation considered cost-effectiveness and a qualitative substudy explored the experiences of participants and clinicians. SETTING: Antenatal clinics in the UK and elsewhere in Europe. PARTICIPANTS: Women with twin pregnancy at < 21 weeks' gestation with known chorionicity and gestation established by scan at ≤ 16 weeks' gestation. INTERVENTIONS: Ultrasound scan to establish cervical length. Women with a cervical length of ≤ 35 mm at 18+ 0-20+ 6 weeks' gestation were randomised to standard care or Arabin pessary plus standard care. Randomisation was performed by computer and accessed through a web-based browser. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Obstetric - all births before 34+ 0 weeks' gestation following the spontaneous onset of labour; and neonatal - composite of adverse outcomes, including stillbirth or neonatal death, periventricular leukomalacia, early respiratory morbidity, intraventricular haemorrhage, necrotising enterocolitis or proven sepsis, all measured up to 28 days after the expected date of delivery. RESULTS: A total of 2228 participants were recruited to the screening phase, of whom 2170 received a scan and 503 were randomised: 250 to Arabin pessary and 253 to standard care alone. The rate of the primary obstetric outcome was 18.4% (46/250) in the intervention group and 20.6% (52/253) in the control group (adjusted odds ratio 0.87, 95% confidence interval 0.55 to 1.38; p = 0.54). The rate of the primary neonatal outcome was 13.4% (67/500) and 15.0% (76/506) in the intervention group and control group, respectively (adjusted odds ratio 0.86, 95% confidence interval 0.54 to 1.36; p = 0.52). The pessary was largely well tolerated and clinicians found insertion and removal 'easy' or 'fairly easy' in the majority of instances. The simple costs analysis showed that pessary treatment is no more costly than standard care. LIMITATIONS: There was the possibility of a type II error around smaller than anticipated benefit. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, the Arabin pessary did not reduce preterm birth or adverse neonatal outcomes in women with a twin pregnancy and a short cervix. The pessary either is ineffective at reducing preterm birth or has an effect size of < 0.4. FUTURE WORK: Women with twin pregnancy remain at risk of preterm birth; work is required to find treatments for this. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN98835694 and ClinicalTrials.gov NCT02235181. FUNDING: This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 25, No. 44. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Women who are pregnant with twins have a much higher risk of going into labour early and having an early (preterm) birth than women who are pregnant with only one baby. For this reason, babies who are twins are much more likely to die or to have serious health complications in the first months of life. Although we know that women with twin pregnancy are at risk, there are no treatments that are recommended to prevent early births. Some studies have suggested that the Arabin pessary can help. The Arabin pessary is a silicone ring that fits around the cervix (neck of the womb). The pessary can be put in place in a clinic without any need for an anaesthetic. Some studies have suggested that the Arabin pessary helps and others have suggested that it does not. It appears to be most helpful when the cervix (neck of the womb) is already shortening. Shortening of the neck of the womb is a sign that early birth is even more likely. We asked women with twin pregnancy to take part in STOPPIT 2. Women who agreed had an ultrasound scan of the neck of the womb, which measured its length. Those with a short cervix were randomised to be offered the Arabin pessary (in addition to standard care) or standard care alone. This allocation was carried out 'at random' by a computer. We followed women up until the end of their pregnancy and collected information on the babies' health after birth. We found that the Arabin pessary did not reduce the risk of an early birth; nor did it reduce the risk of health complications for the baby. We conclude that the Arabin pessary should not be used for this purpose.

The BSR-PsA: study protocol for the British Society for Rheumatology psoriatic arthritis register.

BACKGROUND: Psoriatic arthritis (PsA) presents a unique clinical challenge. Affecting joints, skin, nails, and other organs, it is associated with various comorbidities and has a significant impact on quality of life, social participation and working life. While biologic and other targeted synthetic disease modifying anti-rheumatic drugs (bDMARDs and tsDMARDs) have revolutionised therapy, questions remain about the long-term safety of these agents, and their effectiveness and cost-effectiveness in the real-world clinical setting. METHODS/DESIGN: The British Society for Rheumatology Psoriatic Arthritis Register (BSR-PsA) is a prospective registry of patients with PsA, recruited from across Great Britain, who are (a) commencing a bDMARD/tsDMARD; or (b) naïve to all bDMARDs/tsDMARDs. Ethical approval was given by the NHS West of Scotland Research Ethics Committee 3 (reference: 18/WS/0126). Clinical data are extracted from participants' medical records, including symptom onset and diagnosis, joint, skin and nail symptoms, dactylitis and enthesitis. Physical measurements (height, weight and 66/68 joint counts) and a detailed drug history are taken. Participants are also asked to complete questionnaires comprising instruments relating to general health and quality of life, axial disease, sleep and fatigue, impact of disease, functional status, mental health, other symptoms, and occupational status. The study duration is 5 years in the first instance, and all participants are followed up annually until the end of the study. Participants commencing a bDMARD/tsDMARD are also followed up three and six months after the start of therapy. Disease activity, including C-reactive protein, is assessed at each visit; and participants from some centres are invited to donate blood and urine samples for the creation of a biobank. DISCUSSION: Complementing data from randomised trials, results from this study will contribute to the evidence base underpinning the clinical management of psoriatic arthritis. Various analyses will determine the effectiveness and safety of bDMARDs/tsDMARDs in the real-world, will examine the clinical and biological predictors of treatment response, and will provide real-world data on the cost-effectiveness of these therapies, as well as providing informative data important to patients such as quality of life and occupational outcomes. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The full study protocol is registered on the Open Science Framework ( https://osf.io/jzs8n ).

Economic evaluation of interventions for the treatment of asthma in children: A systematic review.

OBJECTIVES: This systematic review aimed to identify and critique full economic evaluations (EEs) of childhood asthma treatments with the intention to guide researchers and commissioners of pediatric asthma services toward potentially cost-effective strategies. METHODS: "MEDLINE," "Embase," "EconLit," "NHS EED," and "CEA" databases were searched to identify relevant EEs published between 2005 and May 2017. Quality of included studies was assessed with a published checklist. RESULTS: Eighteen studies were identified and comprised one cost-benefit analysis, 11 cost-effectiveness analyses, one cost-minimization analysis, and six cost-utility analyses. Treatments included pharmaceutical (n = 11) and non-pharmaceutical (n = 7) interventions. Fourteen studies identified cost-effective strategies. The quality of the studies varied and there were uncertainties due to the methods and relevance of data used. CONCLUSION: Good-quality economic evaluation studies of pediatric asthma treatments are lacking. EE of new technologies adapted to local settings is recommended and can result in cost savings.

Atrial fibrillation case finding in over 65 s with cardiovascular risk factors - Results of initial Scottish clinical experience.

BACKGROUND: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a major preventable risk factor for stroke and may be silent in elderly individuals who are at especially high risk. This paper describes the first phase of implementation of a clinical AF detection programme in a community setting. Objectives were (i) to determine the feasibility of using a handheld ECG recording system for AF detection among individuals aged 65 years or more, who have cardiovascular risk factors. (ii) to estimate the yield of previously undiagnosed atrial fibrillation cases, and the proportion of these who would be suitable for oral anticoagulation. METHODS: a handheld ECG monitor was placed in each of 23 primary care practices across Scotland. Eligible patients attending for annual health checks had ECGs recorded, and the ECGs were transmitted and interpreted by two senior cardiologists. ECG quality was rated, and an adjudication made on the rhythm. For patients confirmed with AF, stroke and bleeding risk were estimated using CHA2DS2-VASc and HAS-BLED scoring tools. RESULTS: single lead ECGs were recorded in 1805 patients (703 female and 1102 male), mean (SD) age 74.9 (7.1) years. Rhythm regularity could be assessed in 98.7% of ECGs recorded. 92 patients (5.1%) were found to have AF. Median [range]CHA2DS2-VASc score was 4 ([2-7) and median [range] HAS-BLED score was 2 (1-5). CONCLUSION: handheld ECG recording can be used to identify AF in the primary care setting, with minimal training. The yield was relatively high.

Cost-utility of maintained physical activity and physiotherapy in the management of distal arm pain: an economic evaluation of data from a randomized controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Arm pain is common, costly to health services and society. Physiotherapy referral is standard management, and while awaiting treatment, advice is often given to rest, but the evidence base is weak. OBJECTIVE: To assess the cost-effectiveness of advice to remain active (AA) versus advice to rest (AR); and immediate physiotherapy (IP) versus usual care (waiting list) physiotherapy (UCP). METHODS: Twenty-six-week within-trial economic evaluation (538 participants aged ≥18 years randomized to usual care, i.e. AA (n = 178), AR (n = 182) or IP (n = 178). Regression analysis estimated differences in mean costs and Quality-Adjusted Life Years (QALYs). Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) and cost-effectiveness acceptability curves were generated. Primary analysis comprised the 193 patients with complete resource use (UK NHS perspective) and EQ-5D data. Sensitivity analysis investigated uncertainty. RESULTS: Baseline-adjusted cost differences were £88 [95% confidence interval (CI): -14, 201) AA versus AR; -£14 (95% CI: -87, 66) IP versus UCP. Baseline-adjusted QALY differences were 0.0095 (95% CI: -0.0140, 0.0344) AA versus AR; 0.0143 (95% CI: -0.0077, 0.0354) IP versus UCP. There was a 71 and 89% probability that AA (versus AR) and IP (versus UCP) were the most cost-effective option using a threshold of £20,000 per additional QALY.  The results were robust in the sensitivity analysis. CONCLUSION: The difference in mean costs and mean QALYs between the competing strategies was small and not statistically significant. However, decision-makers may judge that IP was not shown to be any more effective than delayed treatment, and was no more costly than delayed physiotherapy. AA is preferable to one that encourages AR, as it is more effective and more likely to be cost-effective than AR.

Randomised controlled trial to assess the impact of a lifestyle intervention (ActWELL) in women invited to NHS breast screening.

INTRODUCTION: In Scotland, the incidence of breast cancer is predicted to rise significantly in the next few decades and while there are measures to support reductions in morbidity and mortality, the breast cancer community is currently exploring preventative opportunities including supporting weight management programmes in postmenopausal women. This study aims to assess the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of a theory-based, community delivered, minimal contact, weight management (diet, physical activity and behaviour change techniques) programme (ActWELL) in women with a body mass index (BMI) >25 kg/m2 attending routine breast cancer screening appointments. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: The study will be a four-centre, 1:1 parallel group randomised controlled trial of a 12-month weight management intervention initiated in breast cancer screening centres, delivered by trained Breast Cancer Now lifestyle coaches in community settings. The intervention programme involves two intervention meetings with coaches plus (up to) nine telephone contacts over 12 months. The programme will focus on personalised diet (including alcoholic and sugary drinks) and physical activity habits. Behaviour change techniques include self-monitoring, goal setting, implementation intentions, action and coping plans. The study has a sample size of 414 women with a BMI >25 kg/m2 attending routine National Health Service breast cancer screening appointments. Measures will be taken at baseline, 12 weeks and at 12-month follow-up, complemented by qualitative interviews exploring perceived acceptability and impact on habitual behaviours. The two co-primary outcomes are mean change in measured body weight and change in physical activity between groups to 12 months. Secondary outcomes are changes in eating habits, alcohol intake, sedentary time, quality of life, waist circumference, lipid, haemoglobin A1c and insulin profiles, blood pressure and cost-effectiveness of the intervention. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The protocol has been approved by East of Scotland Research Ethics Committee (17/ES/0073). All participants provide written informed consent. Dissemination will be through peer-reviewed publication and conference presentations. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN11057518; Pre-results.

Pharmacist-led management of chronic pain in primary care: costs and benefits in a pilot randomised controlled trial.

OBJECTIVES: To explore differences in mean costs (from a UK National Health Service perspective) and effects of pharmacist-led management of chronic pain in primary care evaluated in a pilot randomised controlled trial (RCT), and to estimate optimal sample size for a definitive RCT. DESIGN: Regression analysis of costs and effects, using intention-to-treat and expected value of sample information analysis (EVSI). SETTING: Six general practices: Grampian (3); East Anglia (3). PARTICIPANTS: 125 patients with complete resource use and short form-six-dimension questionnaire (SF-6D) data at baseline, 3 months and 6 months. INTERVENTIONS: Patients were randomised to either pharmacist medication review with face-to-face pharmacist prescribing or pharmacist medication review with feedback to general practitioner or treatment as usual (TAU). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Differences in mean total costs and effects measured as quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) at 6 months and EVSI for sample size calculation. RESULTS: Unadjusted total mean costs per patient were £452 for prescribing (SD: £466), £570 for review (SD: £527) and £668 for TAU (SD: £1333). After controlling for baseline costs, the adjusted mean cost differences per patient relative to TAU were £77 for prescribing (95% CI -82 to 237) and £54 for review (95% CI -103 to 212). Unadjusted mean QALYs were 0.3213 for prescribing (SD: 0.0659), 0.3161 for review (SD: 0.0684) and 0.3079 for TAU (SD: 0.0606). Relative to TAU, the adjusted mean differences were 0.0069 for prescribing (95% CI -0.0091 to 0.0229) and 0.0097 for review (95% CI -0.0054 to 0.0248). The EVSI suggested the optimal future trial size was between 460 and 690, and between 540 and 780 patients per arm using a threshold of £30,000 and £20,000 per QALY gained, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Compared with TAU, pharmacist-led interventions for chronic pain appear more costly and provide similar QALYs. However, these estimates are imprecise due to the small size of the pilot trial. The EVSI indicates that a larger trial is necessary to obtain more precise estimates of differences in mean effects and costs between treatment groups. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN06131530.

Systematic review of the use of bone turnover markers for monitoring the response to osteoporosis treatment: the secondary prevention of fractures, and primary prevention of fractures in high-risk groups.

BACKGROUND: There is currently no standard practice for the monitoring of patients receiving treatment for osteoporosis. Repeated dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) is commonly used for monitoring treatment response, but it has its limitations. Bone turnover markers have advantages over DXA as they are non-invasive, relatively cheap and can detect changes in bone turnover rates earlier. However, they do have disadvantages, particularly high within- and between-patient variability. The ability of bone turnover markers to identify treatment non-responders and predict future fracture risk has yet to be established. OBJECTIVES: We aimed to determine the clinical effectiveness, test accuracy, reliability, reproducibility and cost-effectiveness of bone turnover markers for monitoring the response to osteoporosis treatment. DATA SOURCES: We searched 12 electronic databases (including MEDLINE, EMBASE, The Cochrane Library and trials registries) without language restrictions from inception to March 2012. We hand-searched three relevant journals for the 12 months prior to May 2012, and websites of five test manufacturers and the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA). Reference lists of included studies and relevant reviews were also searched. REVIEW METHODS: A systematic review of test accuracy, clinical utility, reliability and reproducibility, and cost-effectiveness of two formation and two resorption bone turnover markers, in patients being treated for osteoporosis with any of bisphosphonate [alendronate (Fosamax, MSD), risedronate (Actonel, Warner Chilcott Company), zolendronate (Zometa, Novartis)], raloxifene (Evista, Eli Lilly and Company Ltd), strontium ranelate (Protelos, Servier Laboratories Ltd), denosumab (Prolia, Amgen Ltd) or teriparatide (Forsteo, Eli Lilly and Company Ltd), was undertaken according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analysis (PRISMA) guidelines. Given the breadth of the review question, a range of study designs and outcome measures were eligible. The development of a decision model was planned to determine the cost-effectiveness of bone turnover markers for informing changes in patient management if clinical effectiveness could be established. RESULTS: Forty-two studies (70 publications) met the inclusion criteria; none evaluated cost-effectiveness. Only five were randomised controlled trials (RCTs); these assessed only the impact of bone marker monitoring on aspects of adherence. No RCTs evaluated the effectiveness of bone turnover marker monitoring on treatment management. One trial suggested that feedback of a good response decreased non-persistence [hazard ratio (HR) 0.71, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.53 to 0.95], and feedback of a poor response increased non-persistence (HR 2.22, 95% CI 1.27 to 3.89); it is not clear whether or not the trial recruited a population representative of that seen in clinical practice. Thirty-three studies reported results of some assessment of test accuracy, mostly correlations between changes in bone turnover and bone mineral density. Only four studies reported on intra- or interpatient reliability and reproducibility in treated patients. Overall, the results were inconsistent and inconclusive, owing to considerable clinical heterogeneity across the studies and the generally small sample sizes. As clinical effectiveness of bone turnover monitoring could not be established, a decision-analytic model was not developed. CONCLUSIONS: There was insufficient evidence to inform the choice of which bone turnover marker to use in routine clinical practice to monitor osteoporosis treatment response. The research priority is to identify the most promising treatment-test combinations for evaluation in subsequent, methodologically sound, RCTs. In order to determine whether or not bone turnover marker monitoring improves treatment management decisions, and ultimately impacts on patient outcomes in terms of reduced incidence of fracture, RCTs are required. Given the large number of potential patient population-treatment-test combinations, the most promising combinations would initially need to be identified in order to ensure that any RCTs focus on evaluating those strategies. As a result, the research priority is to identify these promising combinations, by either conducting small variability studies or initiating a patient registry to collect standardised data. FUNDING: The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

Ruxolitinib for the treatment of myelofibrosis: a NICE single technology appraisal.

The National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) invited the manufacturer of ruxolitinib (Novartis) to submit clinical and cost-effectiveness evidence for ruxolitinib within its licensed indication (the treatment of disease-related splenomegaly or symptoms in adult patients with myelofibrosis), according to the Institute's Single Technology Appraisal process. The Centre for Reviews and Dissemination and Centre for Health Economics at the University of York were commissioned to act as the independent Evidence Review Group (ERG). This article provides a description of the company submission, the ERG review and the resulting NICE guidance TA289 issued in June 2013. The ERG critically reviewed the evidence presented in the manufacturer's submission and identified areas requiring clarification, for which the manufacturer provided additional evidence. The main clinical effectiveness data were derived from two phase III, multicentre, randomised controlled trials (RCTs): Controlled myelofibrosis study with oral JAK inhibitor treatment (COMFORT)-II compared ruxolitinib with best available therapy (BAT), and COMFORT-I compared ruxolitinib with placebo. These RCTs demonstrated that ruxolitinib confers significant benefits in terms of spleen size reduction and improvement in symptom burden. In the COMFORT-II trial, a reduction in spleen volume of ≥35 % was achieved in 28 % of ruxolitinib-treated patients compared with 0 % of patients in the BAT group (p < 0.001) at 48 weeks, and there was a mean change in spleen volume of -30.1 versus +7.3 % (p < 0.001). Ruxolitinib also provided significant improvements in myelofibrosis-associated symptoms and health-related quality-of-life compared with BAT and placebo. The ERG concluded that ruxolitinib appears to reduce splenomegaly and its associated symptoms, but that there was considerable uncertainty surrounding the manufacturer's cost-effectiveness estimates due to limitations in the manufacturer's model. The manufacturer's model did not allow for disease progression, did not accurately capture symptomatic relief, had several implausible or unjustified assumptions, and there were several parameter choices that the ERG found sub-optimal. ERG sensitivity analyses found that nearly all plausible adjustments to the model reduced the cost effectiveness of ruxolitinib. It is very likely that the base-case incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of £73,980/quality-adjusted life-year presented by the manufacturer represents a best-case scenario. The NICE Appraisal Committee concluded that ruxolitinib was clinically effective, but could not be considered a cost effective use of National Health Service (NHS) resources for treating disease-related splenomegaly or symptoms in adults with myelofibrosis. Ruxolitinib is not recommended for the treatment of disease-related splenomegaly or symptoms in adult patients with primary myelofibrosis (also known as chronic idiopathic myelofibrosis), post-polycythaemia vera myelofibrosis and post-essential thrombocythaemia myelofibrosis in NICE TA289.

Modeling the impact of screening policy and screening compliance on incidence and mortality of cervical cancer in the post-HPV vaccination era.

BACKGROUND: In Norway, pap smear screening target women aged 25-69 years on a triennial basis. The introduction of human papillomavirus (HPV) mass immunization in 2009 raises questions regarding the cost-saving future changes to current screening strategies. METHODS: We calibrated a dynamic HPV transmission model to Norwegian data and assessed the impact of changing screening 20 or 30 years after vaccine introduction, assuming 60 or 90% vaccination coverage. Screening compliance among vaccinated women was assumed at 80 or 50%. Strategies considered: (i) 5-yearly screening of women of 25-69 years, (ii) 3-yearly screening of women of 30-69 years and (iii) 3-yearly screening of women of 25-59 years. RESULTS: Greatest health gains were accomplished by ensuring a high vaccine uptake. In 2060, cervical cancer incidence was reduced by an estimated 36-57% compared with that of no vaccination. Stopping screening at the age of 60 years, excluding opportunistic screening, increased cervical cancer incidence by 3% (2060) compared with maintaining the current screening strategy, resulting in 1.0-2.4% extra cancers (2010-2060). The 5-yearly screening strategy elevated cervical cancer incidence by 30% resulting in 4.7-11.3% additional cancers. CONCLUSION: High vaccine uptake in the years to come is of primary concern. Screening of young women <30 years remains important, even under the conditions of high vaccine coverage.

Cost comparison of insulin glargine with insulin detemir in a basal-bolus regime with mealtime insulin aspart in type 2 diabetes in Germany.

OBJECTIVE: To compare the treatment costs of insulin glargine (IG; Lantus) to detemir (ID; Levemir), both combined with bolus insulin aspart (NovoRapid) in type 2 diabetes (T2D) in Germany. METHODS: Cost comparison was based on data of a 1-year randomised controlled trial. IG was administered once daily and ID once (57% of patients) or twice daily (43%) according to treatment response. At the end of the trial, mean daily basal insulin doses were 0.59 U/kg (IG) and 0.82 U/kg (ID). Aspart doses were 0.32 U/kg (IG) and 0.36 U/kg (ID). Costs were calculated from the German statutory health insurance (SHI) perspective using official 2008 prices. Sensitivity analyses were performed to test robustness of the results. RESULTS: Annual basal and bolus insulin costs per patient were euro 1,473 (IG) and euro 1,940 (ID). The cost of lancets and blood glucose test strips were euro 1,125 (IG) and euro 1,286 (ID). Annual costs for needles were euro 393 (IG) and euro 449 (ID). The total annual cost per patient of administering IG was euro 2,991 compared with euro 3,675 for ID, translating into a 19% annual cost difference of euro 684/patient. Base case results were robust to varying assumptions for insulin dose, insulin price, change in weight and proportion of ID once daily administrations. CONCLUSION: IG and ID basal-bolus regimes have comparative safety and efficacy, based on the Hollander study, IG however may represent a significantly more cost saving option for T2D patients in Germany requiring basal-bolus insulin analogue therapy with potential annual cost savings of euro 684/patient compared to ID.