Human movement and environmental barriers shape the emergence of dengue.

Understanding how emerging infectious diseases spread within and between countries is essential to contain future pandemics. Spread to new areas requires connectivity between one or more sources and a suitable local environment, but how these two factors interact at different stages of disease emergence remains largely unknown. Further, no analytical framework exists to examine their roles. Here we develop a dynamic modelling approach for infectious diseases that explicitly models both connectivity via human movement and environmental suitability interactions. We apply it to better understand recently observed (1995-2019) patterns as well as predict past unobserved (1983-2000) and future (2020-2039) spread of dengue in Mexico and Brazil. We find that these models can accurately reconstruct long-term spread pathways, determine historical origins, and identify specific routes of invasion. We find early dengue invasion is more heavily influenced by environmental factors, resulting in patchy non-contiguous spread, while short and long-distance connectivity becomes more important in later stages. Our results have immediate practical applications for forecasting and containing the spread of dengue and emergence of new serotypes. Given current and future trends in human mobility, climate, and zoonotic spillover, understanding the interplay between connectivity and environmental suitability will be increasingly necessary to contain emerging and re-emerging pathogens.

Dual U-Net-Based Conditional Generative Adversarial Network for Blood Vessel Segmentation with Reduced Cerebral MR Training Volumes.

Segmenting vessels in brain images is a critical step for many medical interventions and diagnoses of illnesses. Recent advances in artificial intelligence provide better models, achieving a human-like level of expertise in many tasks. In this paper, we present a new approach to segment Time-of-Flight Magnetic Resonance Angiography (TOF-MRA) images, relying on fewer training samples than state-of-the-art methods. We propose a conditional generative adversarial network with an adapted generator based on a concatenated U-Net with a residual U-Net architecture (UUr-cGAN) to carry out blood vessel segmentation in TOF-MRA images, relying on data augmentation to diminish the drawback of having few volumes at disposal for training the model, while preventing overfitting by using regularization techniques. The proposed model achieves 89.52% precision and 87.23% in Dice score on average from the cross-validated experiment for brain blood vessel segmentation tasks, which is similar to other state-of-the-art methods while using considerably fewer training samples. UUr-cGAN extracts important features from small datasets while preventing overfitting compared to other CNN-based methods and still achieve a relatively good performance in image segmentation tasks such as brain blood vessels from TOF-MRA.

Tracking the emergence of disparities in the subnational spread of COVID-19 in Brazil using an online application for real-time data visualisation: A longitudinal analysis.

BACKGROUND: Brazil is one of the countries worst affected by the COVID-19 pandemic with over 20 million cases and 557,000 deaths reported by August 2021. Comparison of real-time local COVID-19 data between areas is essential for understanding transmission, measuring the effects of interventions, and predicting the course of the epidemic, but are often challenging due to different population sizes and structures. METHODS: We describe the development of a new app for the real-time visualisation of COVID-19 data in Brazil at the municipality level. In the CLIC-Brazil app, daily updates of case and death data are downloaded, age standardised and used to estimate the effective reproduction number (Rt ). We show how such platforms can perform real-time regression analyses to identify factors associated with the rate of initial spread and early reproduction number. We also use survival methods to predict the likelihood of occurrence of a new peak of COVID-19 incidence. FINDINGS: After an initial introduction in São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro states in early March 2020, the epidemic spread to northern states and then to highly populated coastal regions and the Central-West. Municipalities with higher metrics of social development experienced earlier arrival of COVID-19 (decrease of 11·1 days [95% CI:8.9,13.2] in the time to arrival for each 10% increase in the social development index). Differences in the initial epidemic intensity (mean Rt ) were largely driven by geographic location and the date of local onset. INTERPRETATION: This study demonstrates that platforms that monitor, standardise and analyse the epidemiological data at a local level can give useful real-time insights into outbreak dynamics that can be used to better adapt responses to the current and future pandemics. FUNDING: This project was supported by a Medical Research Council UK (MRC-UK) -São Paulo Research Foundation (FAPESP) CADDE partnership award (MR/S0195/1 and FAPESP 18/14389-0).

Mapping environmental suitability of Haemagogus and Sabethes spp. mosquitoes to understand sylvatic transmission risk of yellow fever virus in Brazil.

BACKGROUND: Yellow fever (YF) is an arboviral disease which is endemic to Brazil due to a sylvatic transmission cycle maintained by infected mosquito vectors, non-human primate (NHP) hosts, and humans. Despite the existence of an effective vaccine, recent sporadic YF epidemics have underscored concerns about sylvatic vector surveillance, as very little is known about their spatial distribution. Here, we model and map the environmental suitability of YF's main vectors in Brazil, Haemagogus spp. and Sabethes spp., and use human population and NHP data to identify locations prone to transmission and spillover risk. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We compiled a comprehensive set of occurrence records on Hg. janthinomys, Hg. leucocelaenus, and Sabethes spp. from 1991-2019 using primary and secondary data sources. Linking these data with selected environmental and land-cover variables, we adopted a stacked regression ensemble modelling approach (elastic-net regularized GLM, extreme gradient boosted regression trees, and random forest) to predict the environmental suitability of these species across Brazil at a 1 km x 1 km resolution. We show that while suitability for each species varies spatially, high suitability for all species was predicted in the Southeastern region where recent outbreaks have occurred. By integrating data on NHP host reservoirs and human populations, our risk maps further highlight municipalities within the region that are prone to transmission and spillover. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our maps of sylvatic vector suitability can help elucidate potential locations of sylvatic reservoirs and be used as a tool to help mitigate risk of future YF outbreaks and assist in vector surveillance. Furthermore, at-risk regions identified from our work could help disease control and elucidate gaps in vaccination coverage and NHP host surveillance.

Combined effects of hydrometeorological hazards and urbanisation on dengue risk in Brazil: a spatiotemporal modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Temperature and rainfall patterns are known to influence seasonal patterns of dengue transmission. However, the effect of severe drought and extremely wet conditions on the timing and intensity of dengue epidemics is poorly understood. In this study, we aimed to quantify the non-linear and delayed effects of extreme hydrometeorological hazards on dengue risk by level of urbanisation in Brazil using a spatiotemporal model. METHODS: We combined distributed lag non-linear models with a spatiotemporal Bayesian hierarchical model framework to determine the exposure-lag-response association between the relative risk (RR) of dengue and a drought severity index. We fit the model to monthly dengue case data for the 558 microregions of Brazil between January, 2001, and January, 2019, accounting for unobserved confounding factors, spatial autocorrelation, seasonality, and interannual variability. We assessed the variation in RR by level of urbanisation through an interaction between the drought severity index and urbanisation. We also assessed the effect of hydrometeorological hazards on dengue risk in areas with a high frequency of water supply shortages. FINDINGS: The dataset included 12 895 293 dengue cases reported between 2001 and 2019 in Brazil. Overall, the risk of dengue increased between 0-3 months after extremely wet conditions (maximum RR at 1 month lag 1·56 [95% CI 1·41-1·73]) and 3-5 months after drought conditions (maximum RR at 4 months lag 1·43 [1·22-1·67]). Including a linear interaction between the drought severity index and level of urbanisation improved the model fit and showed the risk of dengue was higher in more rural areas than highly urbanised areas during extremely wet conditions (maximum RR 1·77 [1·32-2·37] at 0 months lag vs maximum RR 1·58 [1·39-1·81] at 2 months lag), but higher in highly urbanised areas than rural areas after extreme drought (maximum RR 1·60 [1·33-1·92] vs 1·15 [1·08-1·22], both at 4 months lag). We also found the dengue risk following extreme drought was higher in areas that had a higher frequency of water supply shortages. INTERPRETATION: Wet conditions and extreme drought can increase the risk of dengue with different delays. The risk associated with extremely wet conditions was higher in more rural areas and the risk associated with extreme drought was exacerbated in highly urbanised areas, which have water shortages and intermittent water supply during droughts. These findings have implications for targeting mosquito control activities in poorly serviced urban areas, not only during the wet and warm season, but also during drought periods. FUNDING: Royal Society, Medical Research Council, Wellcome Trust, National Institutes of Health, Fundação Carlos Chagas Filho de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado do Rio de Janeiro, and Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico. TRANSLATION: For the Portuguese translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Spindle-Shaped Neurons in the Human Posteromedial (Precuneus) Cortex.

The human posteromedial cortex (PMC), which includes the precuneus (PC), represents a multimodal brain area implicated in emotion, conscious awareness, spatial cognition, and social behavior. Here, we describe the presence of Nissl-stained elongated spindle-shaped neurons (suggestive of von Economo neurons, VENs) in the cortical layer V of the anterior and central PC of adult humans. The adapted "single-section" Golgi method for postmortem tissue was used to study these neurons close to pyramidal ones in layer V until merging with layer VI polymorphic cells. From three-dimensional (3D) reconstructed images, we describe the cell body, two main longitudinally oriented ascending and descending dendrites as well as the occurrence of spines from proximal to distal segments. The primary dendritic shafts give rise to thin collateral branches with a radial orientation, and pleomorphic spines were observed with a sparse to moderate density along the dendritic length. Other spindle-shaped cells were observed with straight dendritic shafts and rare branches or with an axon emerging from the soma. We discuss the morphology of these cells and those considered VENs in cortical areas forming integrated brain networks for higher-order activities. The presence of spindle-shaped neurons and the current discussion on the morphology of putative VENs address the need for an in-depth neurochemical and transcriptomic characterization of the PC cytoarchitecture. These findings would include these spindle-shaped cells in the synaptic and information processing by the default mode network and for general intelligence in healthy individuals and in neuropsychiatric disorders involving the PC in the context of the PMC functioning.

Epidemiological and clinical characteristics of the COVID-19 epidemic in Brazil.

The first case of COVID-19 was detected in Brazil on 25 February 2020. We report and contextualize epidemiological, demographic and clinical findings for COVID-19 cases during the first 3 months of the epidemic. By 31 May 2020, 514,200 COVID-19 cases, including 29,314 deaths, had been reported in 75.3% (4,196 of 5,570) of municipalities across all five administrative regions of Brazil. The R0 value for Brazil was estimated at 3.1 (95% Bayesian credible interval = 2.4-5.5), with a higher median but overlapping credible intervals compared with some other seriously affected countries. A positive association between higher per-capita income and COVID-19 diagnosis was identified. Furthermore, the severe acute respiratory infection cases with unknown aetiology were associated with lower per-capita income. Co-circulation of six respiratory viruses was detected but at very low levels. These findings provide a comprehensive description of the ongoing COVID-19 epidemic in Brazil and may help to guide subsequent measures to control virus transmission.

Evolution and epidemic spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Brazil.

Brazil currently has one of the fastest-growing severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) epidemics in the world. Because of limited available data, assessments of the impact of nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) on this virus spread remain challenging. Using a mobility-driven transmission model, we show that NPIs reduced the reproduction number from >3 to 1 to 1.6 in São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro. Sequencing of 427 new genomes and analysis of a geographically representative genomic dataset identified >100 international virus introductions in Brazil. We estimate that most (76%) of the Brazilian strains fell in three clades that were introduced from Europe between 22 February and 11 March 2020. During the early epidemic phase, we found that SARS-CoV-2 spread mostly locally and within state borders. After this period, despite sharp decreases in air travel, we estimated multiple exportations from large urban centers that coincided with a 25% increase in average traveled distances in national flights. This study sheds new light on the epidemic transmission and evolutionary trajectories of SARS-CoV-2 lineages in Brazil and provides evidence that current interventions remain insufficient to keep virus transmission under control in this country.

Cold spot microrefugia hold the key to survival for Brazil's Critically Endangered Araucaria tree.

Brazil's Araucaria tree (Araucaria angustifolia) is an iconic living fossil and a defining element of the Atlantic Forest global biodiversity hotspot. But despite more than two millennia as a cultural icon in southern Brazil, Araucaria is on the brink of extinction, having lost 97% of its extent to 20th-century logging. Although logging is now illegal, 21st-century climate change constitutes a new-but so far unevaluated-threat to Araucaria's future survival. We use a robust ensemble modelling approach, using recently developed climate data, high-resolution topography and fine-scale vegetation maps, to predict the species' response to climate change and its implications for conservation on meso- and microclimate scales. We show that climate-only models predict the total disappearance of Araucaria's most suitable habitat by 2070, but incorporating topographic effects allows potential highland microrefugia to be identified. The legacy of 20th-century destruction is evident-more than a third of these likely holdouts have already lost their natural vegetation-and 21st-century climate change will leave just 3.5% of remnant forest and 28.4% of highland grasslands suitable for Araucaria. Existing protected areas cover only 2.5% of the surviving microrefugia for this culturally important species, and none occur in any designated indigenous territory. Our results suggest that anthropogenic climate change is likely to commit Araucaria to a second consecutive century of significant losses, but targeted interventions could help ensure its survival in the wild.

The association between Zika virus infection and microcephaly in Brazil 2015-2017: An observational analysis of over 4 million births.

BACKGROUND: In 2015, high rates of microcephaly were reported in Northeast Brazil following the first South American Zika virus (ZIKV) outbreak. Reported microcephaly rates in other Zika-affected areas were significantly lower, suggesting alternate causes or the involvement of arboviral cofactors in exacerbating microcephaly rates. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We merged data from multiple national reporting databases in Brazil to estimate exposure to 9 known or hypothesized causes of microcephaly for every pregnancy nationwide since the beginning of the ZIKV outbreak; this generated between 3.6 and 5.4 million cases (depending on analysis) over the time period 1 January 2015-23 May 2017. The association between ZIKV and microcephaly was statistically tested against models with alternative causes or with effect modifiers. We found no evidence for alternative non-ZIKV causes of the 2015-2017 microcephaly outbreak, nor that concurrent exposure to arbovirus infection or vaccination modified risk. We estimate an absolute risk of microcephaly of 40.8 (95% CI 34.2-49.3) per 10,000 births and a relative risk of 16.8 (95% CI 3.2-369.1) given ZIKV infection in the first or second trimester of pregnancy; however, because ZIKV infection rates were highly variable, most pregnant women in Brazil during the ZIKV outbreak will have been subject to lower risk levels. Statistically significant associations of ZIKV with other birth defects were also detected, but at lower relative risks than that of microcephaly (relative risk < 1.5). Our analysis was limited by missing data prior to the establishment of nationwide ZIKV surveillance, and its findings may be affected by unmeasured confounding causes of microcephaly not available in routinely collected surveillance data. CONCLUSIONS: This study strengthens the evidence that congenital ZIKV infection, particularly in the first 2 trimesters of pregnancy, is associated with microcephaly and less frequently with other birth defects. The finding of no alternative causes for geographic differences in microcephaly rate leads us to hypothesize that the Northeast region was disproportionately affected by this Zika outbreak, with 94% of an estimated 8.5 million total cases occurring in this region, suggesting a need for seroprevalence surveys to determine the underlying reason.

Pathogenic IgG4 autoantibodies from endemic pemphigus foliaceus recognize a desmoglein-1 conformational epitope.

Fogo Selvagem (FS), the endemic form of pemphigus foliaceus, is mediated by pathogenic IgG4 autoantibodies against the amino-terminal extracellular cadherin domain of the desmosomal cadherin desmoglein 1 (Dsg1). Here we define the detailed epitopes of these pathogenic antibodies. Proteolytic footprinting showed that IgG4 from 95% of FS donor sera (19/20) recognized a 16-residue peptide (A129LNSMGQDLERPLELR144) from the EC1 domain of Dsg1 that overlaps the binding site for an adhesive-partner desmosomal cadherin molecule. Mutation of Dsg1 residues M133 and Q135 reduced the binding of FS IgG4 autoantibodies to Dsg1 by ∼50%. Molecular modeling identified two nearby EC1 domain residues (Q82 and V83) likely to contribute to the epitope. Mutation of these residues completely abolished the binding of FS IgG4 to Dsg1. Bead aggregation assays showed that native binding interactions between Dsg1 and desmocollin 1 (Dsc1), which underlie desmosome structure, were abolished by Fab fragments of FS IgG4. These results further define the molecular mechanism by which FS IgG4 autoantibodies interfere with desmosome structure and lead to cell-cell detachment, the hallmark of this disease.

Stand dynamics modulate water cycling and mortality risk in droughted tropical forest.

Transpiration from the Amazon rainforest generates an essential water source at a global and local scale. However, changes in rainforest function with climate change can disrupt this process, causing significant reductions in precipitation across Amazonia, and potentially at a global scale. We report the only study of forest transpiration following a long-term (>10 year) experimental drought treatment in Amazonian forest. After 15 years of receiving half the normal rainfall, drought-related tree mortality caused total forest transpiration to decrease by 30%. However, the surviving droughted trees maintained or increased transpiration because of reduced competition for water and increased light availability, which is consistent with increased growth rates. Consequently, the amount of water supplied as rainfall reaching the soil and directly recycled as transpiration increased to 100%. This value was 25% greater than for adjacent nondroughted forest. If these drought conditions were accompanied by a modest increase in temperature (e.g., 1.5°C), water demand would exceed supply, making the forest more prone to increased tree mortality.

High Zika Virus Seroprevalence in Salvador, Northeastern Brazil Limits the Potential for Further Outbreaks.

During 2015 to 2016, Brazil reported more Zika virus (ZIKV) cases than any other country, yet population exposure remains unknown. Serological studies of ZIKV are hampered by cross-reactive immune responses against heterologous viruses. We conducted serosurveys for ZIKV, dengue virus (DENV), and Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) in 633 individuals prospectively sampled during 2015 to 2016, including microcephaly and non-microcephaly pregnancies, HIV-infected patients, tuberculosis patients, and university staff in Salvador in northeastern Brazil using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays (ELISAs) and plaque reduction neutralization tests. Sera sampled retrospectively during 2013 to 2015 from 277 HIV-infected patients were used to assess the spread of ZIKV over time. Individuals were georeferenced, and sociodemographic indicators were compared between ZIKV-positive and -negative areas and areas with and without microcephaly cases. Epidemiological key parameters were modeled in a Bayesian framework. ZIKV seroprevalence increased rapidly during 2015 to 2016, reaching 63.3% by 2016 (95% confidence interval [CI], 59.4 to 66.8%), comparable to the seroprevalence of DENV (75.7%; CI, 69.4 to 81.1%) and higher than that of CHIKV (7.4%; CI, 5.6 to 9.8%). Of 19 microcephaly pregnancies, 94.7% showed ZIKV IgG antibodies, compared to 69.3% of 257 non-microcephaly pregnancies (P = 0.017). Analyses of sociodemographic data revealed a higher ZIKV burden in low socioeconomic status (SES) areas. High seroprevalence, combined with case data dynamics allowed estimates of the basic reproduction number R0 of 2.1 (CI, 1.8 to 2.5) at the onset of the outbreak and an effective reproductive number Reff of <1 in subsequent years. Our data corroborate ZIKV-associated congenital disease and an association of low SES and ZIKV infection and suggest that population immunity caused cessation of the outbreak. Similar studies from other areas will be required to determine the fate of the American ZIKV outbreak.IMPORTANCE The ongoing American Zika virus (ZIKV) outbreak involves millions of cases and has a major impact on maternal and child health. Knowledge of infection rates is crucial to project future epidemic patterns and determine the absolute risk of microcephaly upon maternal ZIKV infection during pregnancy. For unknown reasons, the vast majority of ZIKV-associated microcephaly cases are concentrated in northeastern Brazil. We analyzed different subpopulations from Salvador, a Brazilian metropolis representing one of the most affected areas during the American ZIKV outbreak. We demonstrate rapid spread of ZIKV in Salvador, Brazil, and infection rates exceeding 60%. We provide evidence for the link between ZIKV and microcephaly, report that ZIKV predominantly affects geographic areas with low socioeconomic status, and show that population immunity likely caused cessation of the outbreak. Our results enable stakeholders to identify target populations for vaccination and for trials on vaccine efficacy and allow refocusing of research efforts and intervention strategies.

Complicaciones de la canalización venosa central con técnica ecoguiada y convencional en el servicio de urgencias del Hospital de San José, Bogotá, Colombia / Complications of the central venous catheter with ecoguide and conventional technique in emergency department of Hospital de San Jose, Bogota, Colombia

Introducción: la utilización de la ultrasonografía como técnica de elección para la colocación de catéteres venosos centrales durante situaciones de emergencia aumenta la seguridad del paciente al presentar baja frecuencia de complicaciones, menor exposición a irradiación e incremento de la calidad de atención. Objetivo: comparar las complicaciones mecánicas de la colocación de catéter venoso central por la técnica guiada por ultrasonografía y la convencional; realizada por residentesde la especialización en Medicina de Urgencias del Hospital de San José (Bogotá,Colombia). Materiales y métodos: estudio descriptivo de dos cohortes en pacientes mayores de 15 años que ingresaron al servicio de urgencias del Hospital de San José, con indicación de colocación de catéter venoso central por técnica convencional entre 2012 y 2013 (cohorte no expuesta) y técnica ecoguiada en 2014 (cohorte expuesta). Como desenlace se observó la presencia de complicacionesen cualquiera de los dos grupos. Resultados: se incluyeron 73 casos, 38 (52,1%) con colocación del catéter venoso central por la técnica ecoguiada. Se presentaron nueve (12,3%) complicaciones, ocho (88,9%) de ellas con la técnica convencional. La mediante del tiempo del procedimiento fue 20 minutos (rango intercuatílico: 15-20 minutos) con la técnica convencional y 10 minutos (rango intercuatílico: 7-10 minutos) con la técnica ecoguiada; esta última con colocación del catéter en un único intento en el 78,9% de los casos. Conclusión: se observó un menor número de complicaciones de tipo mecánico cuando con la técnica ecoguiadarespecto a la técnica convencional en los pacientes críticos con indicación de canulación venosa central.

Introduction: the use of ultrasound as a technique of choice for central venous catheter placement during emergencies increases patient safety due to low frequencyof complications, reduction of exposure to radiation, and increasing quality of care. Objective: To compare the mechanical complications of central venous catheterplacement under ultrasound guided and conventional technique by residents of emergency medicine specialty at the Hospital de San Jose (Bogota, Colombia). Material and methods: Descriptive study of two cohorts, which include patients over 15 years old, admitted to the emergency department of Hospital de San Jose with indication of central venous catheter placement by conventional technique between2012 and 2013 (unexposed cohort) and ultrasound-guided technique in 2014 (exposed cohort). As outcome was observed the presence of complications in both groups. Results: A total of 73 cases were included, 38 (52.1%) of them with central venous catheter placement by ultrasound-guided technique. A total of nine complications(12.3%) were presented, eight (88.9%) of them with the conventional technique.The median of time procedure was of 20 minutes (interquartile range: 15-20 minute) with the conventional technique and 10 minutes (interquartile range: 7-10 minutes) with ecoguide technique. In the ultrasound-guided technique, the catheter placement was achieved in an only attempt in 78.9% of cases. Conclusion: Fewer mechanical complications were observed with ultrasound guided technique respect conventional technique in critically ill patients who have indication of central venous cannulation.

Laparoscopic management of pancreatic pseudocysts: experience at a general hospital in Mexico City.

BACKGROUND: Invasive management of pancreatic pseudocysts (PP) is currently indicated in those patients with symptoms or complications. Treatment options are classified as surgical (open and laparoscopic) and non-surgical (endoscopic and radiologic). AIM: To describe the morbidity, mortality, and efficacy in terms of technical and clinical success of the laparoscopic surgical approach in the treatment of patients with PP in the last 3 years at our hospital center. METHODS: We included patients with PP treated with laparoscopic surgery within the time frame of January 2012 and December 2014. The morbidity and mortality associated with the procedure were determined, together with the postoperative results in terms of effectiveness and recurrence. RESULTS: A total of 38 patients were diagnosed with PP within the last 3 years, but only 20 of them had invasive treatment. Laparoscopic surgery was performed on 17 of those patients (mean pseudocyst diameter of 15.3, primary drainage success rate of 94.1%, complication rate of 5.9%, and a 40-month follow-up). CONCLUSIONS: The results obtained with the laparoscopic technique used at our hospital center showed that this approach is feasible, efficacious, and safe. Thus, performed by skilled surgeons, it should be considered a treatment option for patients with PP.

After more than a decade of soil moisture deficit, tropical rainforest trees maintain photosynthetic capacity, despite increased leaf respiration.

Determining climate change feedbacks from tropical rainforests requires an understanding of how carbon gain through photosynthesis and loss through respiration will be altered. One of the key changes that tropical rainforests may experience under future climate change scenarios is reduced soil moisture availability. In this study we examine if and how both leaf photosynthesis and leaf dark respiration acclimate following more than 12 years of experimental soil moisture deficit, via a through-fall exclusion experiment (TFE) in an eastern Amazonian rainforest. We find that experimentally drought-stressed trees and taxa maintain the same maximum leaf photosynthetic capacity as trees in corresponding control forest, independent of their susceptibility to drought-induced mortality. We hypothesize that photosynthetic capacity is maintained across all treatments and taxa to take advantage of short-lived periods of high moisture availability, when stomatal conductance (gs ) and photosynthesis can increase rapidly, potentially compensating for reduced assimilate supply at other times. Average leaf dark respiration (Rd ) was elevated in the TFE-treated forest trees relative to the control by 28.2 ± 2.8% (mean ± one standard error). This mean Rd value was dominated by a 48.5 ± 3.6% increase in the Rd of drought-sensitive taxa, and likely reflects the need for additional metabolic support required for stress-related repair, and hydraulic or osmotic maintenance processes. Following soil moisture deficit that is maintained for several years, our data suggest that changes in respiration drive greater shifts in the canopy carbon balance, than changes in photosynthetic capacity.

Dengue disease outbreak definitions are implicitly variable.

Infectious diseases rarely exhibit simple dynamics. Outbreaks (defined as excess cases beyond response capabilities) have the potential to cause a disproportionately high burden due to overwhelming health care systems. The recommendations of international policy guidelines and research agendas are based on a perceived standardised definition of an outbreak characterised by a prolonged, high-caseload, extra-seasonal surge. In this analysis we apply multiple candidate outbreak definitions to reported dengue case data from Brazil to test this assumption. The methods identify highly heterogeneous outbreak characteristics in terms of frequency, duration and case burden. All definitions identify outbreaks with characteristics that vary over time and space. Further, definitions differ in their timeliness of outbreak onset, and thus may be more or less suitable for early intervention. This raises concerns about the application of current outbreak guidelines for early warning/identification systems. It is clear that quantitatively defining the characteristics of an outbreak is an essential prerequisite for effective reactive response. More work is needed so that definitions of disease outbreaks can take into account the baseline capacities of treatment, surveillance and control. This is essential if outbreak guidelines are to be effective and generalisable across a range of epidemiologically different settings.

The natural history and spontaneous resolution of keloid scars.

INTRODUCTION: There is limited information available on the natural history and prognosis of keloid scars. AIM: To evaluate how keloid scars behave over time to develop prognostic information for patients. MATERIALS AND METHODS: 34 patients in Manchester and Barbados (average age 34 years) yielding 126 keloids completed questionnaires about their lesions. RESULTS: 46 keloids (37%) were described by patients as resolved, meaning they were satisfactory in appearance, not symptomatic and not requiring treatment. In each case the scar remained visible. 36 (29%) lesions resolved following treatment. Ten (8%) resolved spontaneously. The median number of years to resolution with treatment was 11.4 and to spontaneous resolution was 5, this difference was statistically significant (p < 0.05). The median number of years since resolution with treatment was 3 and since spontaneous resolution was 18, this difference was statistically significant (p < 0.0001). Seventeen lesions (13%) were resolving with treatment. 63 (50%) remained active. Overall the median number of years scars persisted was 15. CONCLUSION: Keloids never completely disappear to leave skin with normal texture, however they can resolve (flatten and soften) so they no longer burden patients in approximately one third of cases. Scars resolving spontaneously do so early in the disease. Those that don't may resolve after many years of treatment. This data can provide prognostic information to patients, and a baseline for future therapeutic trials.

Randomized, controlled trial of ultrasound-assisted catheter-directed thrombolysis for acute intermediate-risk pulmonary embolism.

BACKGROUND: In patients with acute pulmonary embolism, systemic thrombolysis improves right ventricular (RV) dilatation, is associated with major bleeding, and is withheld in many patients at risk. This multicenter randomized, controlled trial investigated whether ultrasound-assisted catheter-directed thrombolysis (USAT) is superior to anticoagulation alone in the reversal of RV dilatation in intermediate-risk patients. METHODS AND RESULTS: Fifty-nine patients (63±14 years) with acute main or lower lobe pulmonary embolism and echocardiographic RV to left ventricular dimension (RV/LV) ratio ≥1.0 were randomized to receive unfractionated heparin and an USAT regimen of 10 to 20 mg recombinant tissue plasminogen activator over 15 hours (n=30; USAT group) or unfractionated heparin alone (n=29; heparin group). Primary outcome was the difference in the RV/LV ratio from baseline to 24 hours. Safety outcomes included death, major and minor bleeding, and recurrent venous thromboembolism at 90 days. In the USAT group, the mean RV/LV ratio was reduced from 1.28±0.19 at baseline to 0.99±0.17 at 24 hours (P<0.001); in the heparin group, mean RV/LV ratios were 1.20±0.14 and 1.17±0.20, respectively (P=0.31). The mean decrease in RV/LV ratio from baseline to 24 hours was 0.30±0.20 versus 0.03±0.16 (P<0.001), respectively. At 90 days, there was 1 death (in the heparin group), no major bleeding, 4 minor bleeding episodes (3 in the USAT group and 1 in the heparin group; P=0.61), and no recurrent venous thromboembolism. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with pulmonary embolism at intermediate risk, a standardized USAT regimen was superior to anticoagulation with heparin alone in reversing RV dilatation at 24 hours, without an increase in bleeding complications. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT01166997.