RÉSUMÉ
At present, the method for calculating long-term tunnel settlement predictions under metro loading considers only one working condition of passenger loading, which is inconsistent with actual working conditions. To establish a tunnel settlement model that accounts for variations in passenger flow, this study uses data mining methods to categorize metro operation into three working conditions: "peak period, secondary period, and low period." The impact of these passenger flow conditions on the dynamic response of the soil around the tunnel is analyzed. Then, based on the principles of calculus, a calculus-based prediction model is established to consider the changing patterns of metro passenger flow. The model is applied to analyze the long-term settlement characteristics of Shanghai Metro Line 10. The results indicate that, under identical conditions, soil displacement and dynamic deviatoric stress around the tunnel increase with passenger capacity. The calculus prediction model aligns more closely with actual working conditions than the conventional model. The predicted tunnel settlement of Shanghai Metro Line 10 after 20 years of operation is approximately 37.07 mm, with most settlement occurring in the early stages, primarily due to cumulative plastic deformation of the soil.