Using Routine Data to Improve Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual, and Transgender Health.

The collection of sexual orientation in routine data, generated either from contacts with health services or in infrastructure data resources designed and collected for policy and research, has improved substantially in the United Kingdom in the last decade. Inclusive measures of gender and transgender status are now also beginning to be collected. This viewpoint considers current data collections, and their strengths and limitations, including accessing data, sample size, measures of sexual orientation and gender, measures of health outcomes, and longitudinal follow-up. The available data are considered within both sociopolitical and biomedical models of health for individuals who are lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, queer, or of other identities including nonbinary (LGBTQ+). Although most individual data sets have some methodological limitations, when put together, there is now a real depth of routine data for LGBTQ+ health research. This paper aims to provide a framework for how these data can be used to improve health and health care outcomes. Four practical analysis approaches are introduced-descriptive epidemiology, risk prediction, intervention development, and impact evaluation-and are discussed as frameworks for translating data into research with the potential to improve health.

Wellbeing Impact Study of High-Speed 2 (WISH2): Protocol for a mixed-methods examination of the impact of major transport infrastructure development on mental health and wellbeing.

Although research has demonstrated that transport infrastructure development can have positive and negative health-related impacts, most of this research has not considered mental health and wellbeing separately from physical health. There is also limited understanding of whether and how any effects might be experienced differently across population groups, whether this differs according to the stage of development (e.g. planning, construction), and how changes to planned infrastructure may affect mental health and wellbeing. This paper presents a protocol for the Wellbeing Impact Study of HS2 (WISH2), which seeks to address these questions using a high-speed rail development in the UK as an applied example. WISH2 is a 10-year, integrated, longitudinal, mixed-methods project using general practices (primary medical care providers in the UK) as an avenue for participant recruitment and for providing a geographically defined population for which aggregated data on mental health indicators are available. The research comprises: (i) a combined longitudinal and repeated cross-sectional cohort study involving multiple waves of survey data collection and data from medical records; (ii) longitudinal, semi-structured interviews and focus groups with residents and community stakeholders from exposed areas; (iii) analysis of administrative data aggregated at the general practice population level; and (iv) health economic analysis of mental health and wellbeing impacts. The study findings will support the development of strategies to reduce negative impacts and/or enhance positive mental health and wellbeing impacts of high-speed rail developments and other large-scale infrastructure projects.

Identifying where hospital and community trusts are managing general practices in England: a service mapping study.

BACKGROUND: Organisations providing secondary care in the NHS in England have historically not also provided primary health care, but this is changing. Data on where this kind of 'vertical integration' is happening are lacking, making it difficult to evaluate its impact. AIM: To compile a comprehensive list of instances of secondary care trusts running general practices in England, to enable evaluation of the impact of such arrangements. DESIGN & SETTING: This service mapping study comprises review, collation, synthesis, and analysis of published information describing secondary and primary care provision in the NHS in England in March 2021. METHOD: Desk-based collection, including hand-searching, of secondary care organisations' statutory annual reports. Triangulation via comparison with national data on general practices, the general practice workforce and practice contracts. RESULTS: It was possible to construct a database of all instances of trusts running general practices in England as of 31 March 2021. We have identified 26 trusts running a total of 85 general practices, operating across a total of 116 practice sites. These practices have on average fewer patients and fewer GP full-time equivalents than other general practices, and before becoming vertically integrated were performing less well in the Quality and Outcomes Framework. CONCLUSION: We recommend that national statistics recording the details of general practices contracting with the NHS should include whether each practice is owned by another organisation and whether that is an NHS trust, another public body, or a private organisation. Such data are required to enable evaluation of the impacts of this kind of vertical integration.

Sociodemographic characteristics and longitudinal progression of multimorbidity: A multistate modelling analysis of a large primary care records dataset in England.

BACKGROUND: Multimorbidity, characterised by the coexistence of multiple chronic conditions in an individual, is a rising public health concern. While much of the existing research has focused on cross-sectional patterns of multimorbidity, there remains a need to better understand the longitudinal accumulation of diseases. This includes examining the associations between important sociodemographic characteristics and the rate of progression of chronic conditions. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We utilised electronic primary care records from 13.48 million participants in England, drawn from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD Aurum), spanning from 2005 to 2020 with a median follow-up of 4.71 years (IQR: 1.78, 11.28). The study focused on 5 important chronic conditions: cardiovascular disease (CVD), type 2 diabetes (T2D), chronic kidney disease (CKD), heart failure (HF), and mental health (MH) conditions. Key sociodemographic characteristics considered include ethnicity, social and material deprivation, gender, and age. We employed a flexible spline-based parametric multistate model to investigate the associations between these sociodemographic characteristics and the rate of different disease transitions throughout multimorbidity development. Our findings reveal distinct association patterns across different disease transition types. Deprivation, gender, and age generally demonstrated stronger associations with disease diagnosis compared to ethnic group differences. Notably, the impact of these factors tended to attenuate with an increase in the number of preexisting conditions, especially for deprivation, gender, and age. For example, the hazard ratio (HR) (95% CI; p-value) for the association of deprivation with T2D diagnosis (comparing the most deprived quintile to the least deprived) is 1.76 ([1.74, 1.78]; p < 0.001) for those with no preexisting conditions and decreases to 0.95 ([0.75, 1.21]; p = 0.69) with 4 preexisting conditions. Furthermore, the impact of deprivation, gender, and age was typically more pronounced when transitioning from an MH condition. For instance, the HR (95% CI; p-value) for the association of deprivation with T2D diagnosis when transitioning from MH is 2.03 ([1.95, 2.12], p < 0.001), compared to transitions from CVD 1.50 ([1.43, 1.58], p < 0.001), CKD 1.37 ([1.30, 1.44], p < 0.001), and HF 1.55 ([1.34, 1.79], p < 0.001). A primary limitation of our study is that potential diagnostic inaccuracies in primary care records, such as underdiagnosis, overdiagnosis, or ascertainment bias of chronic conditions, could influence our results. CONCLUSIONS: Our results indicate that early phases of multimorbidity development could warrant increased attention. The potential importance of earlier detection and intervention of chronic conditions is underscored, particularly for MH conditions and higher-risk populations. These insights may have important implications for the management of multimorbidity.

Ethnic inequalities in age-related patterns of multiple long-term conditions in England: Analysis of primary care and nationally representative survey data.

Little is known about the patterning of multiple long-term conditions (MLTCs) by age, ethnicity and across conceptualisations of MLTCs (e.g. MLTCs with/without mental health conditions [MHCs]). We examined ethnic inequalities in age-related patterns of MLTCs, and combinations of physical and MHCs using the English GP Patient Survey and Clinical Practice Research Datalink. We described the association between MLTCs and age using multilevel regression models adjusting for sex and area-level deprivation with patients nested within GP practices. Similar analyses were repeated for MLTCs that include MHCs. We observed ethnic inequalities from middle-age onwards such as older Pakistani, Indian, Black Caribbean and Other ethnic people had increased risk of MLTCs compared to white British people, even after adjusting for area-level deprivation. Compared to white British people, Gypsy and Irish Travellers had higher levels of MLTCs across the age groups, and Chinese people had lower levels. Pakistani and Bangladeshi people aged 50-74 years were more likely than white people to report MLTCs that included MHCs. We find clear evidence of ethnic inequalities in MLTCs. The lower prevalence of MLTCs that include MHCs among some minoritised ethnic groups may be an underestimation due to underdiagnosis and/or inadequate primary care and requires further scrutiny.

Vertical integration of general practices with acute hospitals in England: rapid impact evaluation.

Background: Vertical integration means merging organisations that operate at different stages along the patient pathway. We focus on acute hospitals running primary care medical practices. Evidence is scarce concerning the impact on use of health-care services and patient experience. Objectives: To assess the impact of vertical integration on use of hospital services, service delivery and patient experience and whether patients with multiple long-term conditions are affected differently from others. Design: Rapid, mixed methods evaluation with four work packages: (1) review of NHS trust annual reports and other sources to understand the scale of vertical integration across England; (2) development of the statistical analysis; (3) analysis of national survey data on patient experience, and national data on use of hospital services over the 2 years preceding and following vertical integration, comparing vertically integrated practices with a variety of control practices; and (4) focus groups and interviews with staff and patients across three case study sites to explore the impact of vertical integration on patient experience of care. Results: At 31 March 2021, 26 NHS trusts were in vertically integrated organisations, running 85 general practices across 116 practice sites. The earliest vertical integration between trusts and general practices was in 2015; a mean of 3.3 practices run by each trust (range 1-12). On average, integrated practices have fewer patients, are slightly more likely to be in the most deprived decile of areas, are more likely to hold an alternative provider medical services contract and have worse Quality and Outcomes Framework scores compared with non-integrated practices. Vertical integration is associated with statistically significant, modest reductions in rates of accident and emergency department attendances: 2% reduction (incidence rate ratio 0.98, 95% confidence interval 0.96 to 0.99; p < 0.0001); outpatient attendances: 1% reduction (incidence rate ratio 0.99, 95% confidence interval 0.99 to 1.00; p = 0.0061), emergency inpatient admissions: 3% reduction (incidence rate ratio 0.97, 95% confidence interval 0.95 to 0.99; p = 0.0062) and emergency readmissions: 5% reduction (incidence rate ratio 0.95, 95% confidence interval 0.91 to 1.00; p = 0.039), with no impact on length of stay, overall inpatient admissions or inpatient admissions for ambulatory care sensitive conditions. The falls in accident and emergency department and outpatient attendance rates are temporary. Focus groups and interviews with staff (N = 22) and interviews with patients (N = 14) showed that with vertical integration, health service improvements are introduced following a period of cultural interchange. Patients with multiple long-term conditions continue to encounter 'navigation work' choosing and accessing health-care provision, with diminishing continuity of care. Limitations: In the quantitative analysis, we could not replicate the counterfactual of what would have happened in those specific locations had practices not merged with trusts. There was imbalance across three case study sites with regard to staff and patients recruited for interview, and the latter were drawn from patient participation groups who may not be representative of local populations. Conclusions: Vertical integration can lead to modest reductions in use of hospital services and has minor or no impact on patient experience of care. Our analysis does not reveal a case for widespread roll-out of the approach. Future research: Further quantitative follow-up of the longer-term impact of vertical integration on hospital usage and more extensive interviewing of patients and their carers about patient experiences of navigating care. Funding: This project was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Health and Social Care Delivery Research programme (BRACE Project no. 16/138/31) and will be published in full in Health and Social Care Delivery Research; Vol. 11, No. 17. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Progression of stroke risk in patients aged <65 years diagnosed with atrial fibrillation: a cohort study in general practice.

BACKGROUND: As a result of new technologies, atrial fibrillation (AF) is more likely to be diagnosed in people aged <65 years. AIM: To investigate the risk of someone diagnosed with AF aged <65 years developing an indication for anticoagulation before they reach 65 years. DESIGN AND SETTING: Population-based cohort study of patients from English practices using the Clinical Practice Research Datalink, a primary care database of electronic medical records. METHOD: The study included patients aged <65 years newly diagnosed with AF. The CHA2DS2-VASc score was derived at time of diagnosis based on patients' medical records. Patients not eligible for anticoagulation were followed up until they became eligible or turned 65 years old. The primary outcome of interest was development of a risk factor for stroke in AF. RESULTS: Among 18 178 patients aged <65 years diagnosed with AF, 9188 (50.5%) were eligible for anticoagulation at the time of diagnosis. Among the 8990 patients not eligible for anticoagulation, 1688 (18.8%) developed a risk factor during follow-up before reaching 65 years of age or leaving the cohort for other reasons, at a rate of 6.1 per 100 patient-years. Hypertension and heart failure were the most common risk factors to occur, with rates of 2.65 (95% CI = 2.47 to 2.84) and 1.58 (95% CI = 1.45 to 1.72) per 100 patient-years, respectively. The rate of new diabetes was 0.95 (95% CI = 0.85 to 1.06) per 100 patient-years. CONCLUSION: People aged <65 years with AF are at higher risk of developing hypertension, heart failure, and diabetes than the general population, so may warrant regular review to identify new occurrence of such risk factors.

Breast, Prostate, Colorectal, and Lung Cancer Incidence and Risk Factors in Women Who Have Sex with Women and Men Who Have Sex with Men: A Cross-Sectional and Longitudinal Analysis Using UK Biobank.

BACKGROUND: There is limited evidence about cancer incidence for lesbian, gay and bisexual women and men, although the prevalence of cancer risk factors may be higher. AIM: To describe cancer incidence for four common cancers (breast, lung, colorectal and prostate). METHODS: This project used UK Biobank participant data. We explored risk factor prevalence (age, deprivation, ethnicity, smoking, alcohol intake, obesity, parity, and sexual history), and calculated cancer risk, for six groups defined based on sexual history; women who have sex exclusively with men (WSEM), or women (WSEW), women who have sex with men and women (WSWM); men who have sex exclusively with women (MSEW), or men (MSEM), and men who have sex with women and men (MSWM). RESULTS: WSEW, WSWM, MSEM, and MSMW were younger, more likely to smoke, and to live in more deprived neighbourhoods. We found no evidence of an association between sexual history and breast, colorectal, or prostate cancer in age-adjusted models. Lung cancer incidence was higher for WSWM compared with WSEM, HR (95%CI) 1.78 (1.28-2.48), p = 0.0005, and MSWM compared with MSEW, 1.43 (1.03-1.99), p = 0.031; after adjustment for smoking, this difference was no longer significant. CONCLUSIONS: Sexual minority groups have a higher risk for lung cancer, due to greater exposure to smoking.

Demographic characteristics, long-term health conditions and healthcare experiences of 6333 trans and non-binary adults in England: nationally representative evidence from the 2021 GP Patient Survey.

OBJECTIVE: In order to address the lack of data on the health and healthcare needs of trans and non-binary adults, NHS England includes questions asking about both gender and trans status in its surveys to support quality improvement programmes.We used self-reported data from the GP Patient Survey to answer the research question: what are the demographic characteristics, health conditions and healthcare experiences of trans and non-binary adults in England? DESIGN/SETTING: Nationally representative, population-based cross-sectional survey in England with survey data collection from January to March 2021. PARTICIPANTS: 840 691 survey respondents including 6333 trans and non-binary adults. OUTCOMES: We calculated weighted descriptive statistics, and using logistic regression explored 15 long-term physical and mental health conditions, and 18 patient experience items, covering overall experience, access, communication and continuity. RESULTS: Trans and non-binary adults were younger, more likely to be from Asian, black, mixed or other ethnic groups and more likely to live in more deprived parts of the country. Age-specific patterns of long-term conditions were broadly similar among trans and non-binary adults compared with all other survey respondents, with some variation by condition. Overall, inequalities in long-term health conditions were largest for autism: OR (95% CI), 5.8 (5.0 to 6.6), dementia: 3.1 (2.5 to 3.9), learning disabilities: 2.8 (2.4 to 3.2) and mental health: 2.0 (1.9 to 2.2), with variation by age. In healthcare experience, disparities are much greater for interpersonal communication (OR for reporting a positive experience, range 0.4 to 0.7 across items) than access (OR range 0.8 to 1.2). Additionally, trans and non-binary adults report much higher preference for continuity 1.7 (1.6 to 1.8), with no evidence of any differences in being able to see or speak to a preferred general practitioner. CONCLUSION: This research adds up to date evidence about population demographics, health and healthcare needs to support healthcare improvement for trans and non-binary adults.

The current state of genetic risk models for the development of kidney cancer: a review and validation.

OBJECTIVE: To review the current state of genetic risk models for predicting the development of kidney cancer, by identifying and comparing the performance of published models. METHODS: Risk models were identified from a recent systematic review and the Cancer-PRS web directory. A narrative synthesis of the models, previous validation studies and related genome-wide association studies (GWAS) was carried out. The discrimination and calibration of the identified models was then assessed and compared in the UK Biobank (UKB) cohort (cases, 452; controls, 487 925). RESULTS: A total of 39 genetic models predicting the development of kidney cancer were identified and 31 were validated in the UKB. Several of the genetic-only models (seven of 25) and most of the mixed genetic-phenotypic models (five of six) had some discriminatory ability (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve >0.5) in this cohort. In general, models containing a larger number of genetic variants identified in GWAS performed better than models containing a small number of variants associated with known causal pathways. However, the performance of the included models was consistently poorer than genetic risk models for other cancers. CONCLUSIONS: Although there is potential for genetic models to identify those at highest risk of developing kidney cancer, their performance is poorer than the best genetic risk models for other cancers. This may be due to the comparatively small number of genetic variants associated with kidney cancer identified in GWAS to date. The development of improved genetic risk models for kidney cancer is dependent on the identification of more variants associated with this disease. Whether these will have utility within future kidney cancer screening pathways is yet to determined.

Sexual Minority Adults in England Have Greater Odds of Chronic Mental Health Problems: Variation by Sexual Orientation, Age, Ethnicity, and Socioeconomic Status.

Purpose: Sexual minority adults report worse mental health than heterosexual peers, although few empirical studies are large enough to measure variation in these disparities by sexual orientation, age, ethnicity, and socioeconomic status (SES). We investigate chronic mental health problems among sexual minority adults. Methods: Sex-disaggregated logistic regressions examined associations between self-reported chronic mental health problems and sexual orientation, age, ethnicity, and SES in a 2015-2017 dataset from the nationally representative English General Practice Patient Survey data (n = 1,341,339). Results: Bisexual adults, especially young bisexual females, reported the highest rates of chronic mental health problems. Sexual minority females 18-24 years of age had five times the odds of reporting chronic mental health problems of their heterosexual peers, with 32% of sexual minority females 18-24 years of age reporting the outcome. Sexual minority identity was also strongly associated with chronic mental health problems for adults who were White and lived in more affluent areas. Conclusion: The very high odds of chronic mental health problems among bisexual adults, especially younger bisexual females, may reflect simultaneous isolation from sexual minority and heterosexual communities. Elevated odds at younger ages may reflect disproportionate social media use and bullying. It is plausible that those who are subject to minority stress associated with SES and ethnicity may develop resilience strategies that they then apply to sexual minority stress. The results suggest that sexual minority identity is a source of minority stress, even for those who are affluent. Clinicians should be alert to the need to support the specific mental health concerns of their sexual minority patients.

Long-term conditions among sexual minority adults in England: evidence from a cross-sectional analysis of responses to the English GP Patient Survey.

BACKGROUND: Epidemiological evidence for specific long-term conditions is required to inform best practices regarding the substantial health inequalities experienced by sexual minority individuals compared with heterosexual peers. AIM: To describe inequalities in long-term conditions among sexual minority (lesbian, gay, and bisexual [LGB]) adults. DESIGN & SETTING: Cross-sectional analysis of 1 341 339 nationally representative survey responses from the English GP Patient Survey (GPPS). METHOD: Stratifying by sex, the weighted prevalence and covariate-adjusted association of 15 long-term conditions were calculated, comparing sexual minority and heterosexual adults, considering variation by sexual orientation and variation in sexual orientation inequalities by deprivation, ethnic group, region, and age. RESULTS: After adjusting for deprivation, ethnic group, region, and age, 13 long-term conditions (all except cancer and hypertension) were more prevalent among sexual minority women than their heterosexual peers, with the largest inequalities for mental health problems (odds ratio [OR] 2.8, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 2.7 to 3.0), neurological conditions (OR 1.7, 95% CI = 1.5 to 1.8), dementia (OR 1.6, 95% CI = 1.3 to 1.9), and back problems (OR 1.4, 95% CI = 1.3 to 1.5). It was found that nine long-term conditions were also more prevalent among sexual minority men including mental health problems (OR 2.3, 95% CI = 2.2 to 2.4), 'all other conditions' (OR 1.8, 95% CI = 1.7 to 1.8), neurological conditions (OR 1.5, 95% CI = 1.4 to 1.6), and kidney or liver disease (OR 1.4, 95% CI = 1.3 to 1.5); inequalities were often largest for bisexual adults. Inequalities did not vary significantly by deprivation, ethnic group, or region except for mental health problems. Inequalities in multimorbidity were highest at younger ages; for example, LGB women aged 18-24 years had multimorbidity at the same level (approximately 20%) as heterosexual women aged 45-54 years. CONCLUSION: Sexual minority adults, especially bisexual adults, are at elevated risk for many long-term conditions and multimorbidity; this risk spans socioeconomic status and ethnic group, representing a significant healthcare challenge.

Are we asking the right questions? Working with the LGBTQ+ community to prioritise healthcare research themes.

BACKGROUND: Conversations about research priorities with members of the public are rarely designed specifically to include people who identify as Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual, Transgender and Queer (LGBTQ+) and are not researchers. METHODS: Generally, to address this gap, and specifically, to inform future research for CLS, we carried out a rapid review of published research priority sets covering LGBTQ+ topics, and an online workshop to prioritise identified themes. RESULTS: Rapid review: results. The rapid review identified 18 LGBTQ+ research priority sets. Some focussed on specific populations such as women or men, younger or older people or people living within families. Five addressed transgender and gender non- conforming populations. All of the research priority sets originated from English-speaking, high and middle-income countries (UK, US, Canada, and Australia), and date from 2016 onwards. Prioritization approaches were wide-ranging from personal commentary to expert workshops and surveys. Participants involved in setting priorities mostly included research academics, health practitioners and advocacy organisations, two studies involved LGBTQ+ public in their process. Research priorities identified in this review were then grouped into themes which were prioritised during the workshop. Workshop: results. For the workshop, participants were recruited using local (Cambridge, UK) LGBTQ+ networks and a national advert to a public involvement in research matching website to take part in an online discussion workshop. Those that took part were offered payment for their time in preparing for the workshop and taking part. Participants personal priorities and experiences contributed to a consensus development process and a final ranked list of seven research themes and participants' experiences of healthcare, mental health advocacy, care homes, caring responsibilities, schools and family units added additional context. CONCLUSIONS: From the workshop the three research themes prioritised were: healthcare services delivery, prevention, and particular challenges / intersectionality of multiple challenges for people identifying as LGBTQ+. Research themes interconnected in many ways and this was demonstrated by the comments from workshop participants. This paper offers insights into why these priorities were important from participants' perspectives and detail about how to run an inclusive and respectful public involvement research exercise. On a practical level these themes will directly inform future research direction for CLS.

Conversations about research priorities with members of the public who identify as Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual, Transgender and Queer (LGBTQ+) and are not researchers are not common.We reviewed published research priorities covering LGBTQ+ topics and held an online workshop. The review identified 18 LGBTQ+ research published priority sets. Some focussed on specific populations such as women or men, younger or older people or people living within families. Five were on transgender and gender non- conforming populations. Priorities were achieved by different methods such as workshops and surveys. People involved in setting priorities mostly included researchers, health practitioners and advocacy organisations, two studies involved LGBTQ+ public in their process. Research priorities identified in the review were grouped into themes which were prioritised during the workshop.For the online workshop, participants were recruited using local (Cambridge, UK) LGBTQ+ networks and a national advert and offered payment for their time. Participants personal priorities and experiences contributed to agreeing a final list of seven research themes in priority order. Participants' experiences of healthcare, mental health advocacy, care homes, caring responsibilities, schools and family units were helpful.From the workshop the three top research themes were: healthcare services delivery, prevention, and particular and multiple challenges of people identifying as lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender or queer. Research themes interconnected in many ways as shown by the comments from workshop participants. This paper describes why these priorities were important from participants' perspective and offers information about how to run an inclusive and respectful public involvement research exercise.

Anticoagulation trends in adults aged 65 years and over with atrial fibrillation: a cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To describe patterns of anticoagulation prescription and persistence for those aged ≥65 years with atrial fibrillation (AF). METHODS: Descriptive cohort study using electronic general practice records of patients in England, who attended an influenza vaccination aged ≥65 years and were diagnosed with AF between 2008 and 2018. Patients were stratified by 10-year age group and year of diagnosis. Proportion anticoagulated, type of anticoagulation (direct oral anticoagulant (DOAC) or warfarin) initiated at diagnosis and persistence with anticoagulation over time are reported. RESULTS: 42 290 patients (49% female), aged 65-74 (n=11 722), 75-84 (n=19 055) and 85+ (n=11 513) years at AF diagnosis are included. Prescription of anticoagulation at diagnosis increased over the time period from 55% to 86% in people aged 65-74 years, from 54% to 86% in people aged 75-84 years and from 27% to 75% in people aged 85 years and over. By 2018, 92% of patients with newly diagnosed AF were started on a DOAC. Survivor function for 5-year persistence in patients prescribed DOAC was 0.80 (95% CI 0.77 to 0.82) and for warfarin 0.71 (95% CI 0.70 to 0.72). Survivor function for any anticoagulation at 5 years was 0.79 (95% CI 0.78 to 0.81), 0.73 (95% CI 0.72 to 0.75) and 0.58 (95% CI 0.59 to 0.64) for people aged 65-74, 75-84 and 85+ years, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Rates of anticoagulation in AF in those aged ≥65 years have increased from 2008 to 2018, over which time period there has been a shift from initiating anticoagulation with warfarin to DOAC. Persistence with anticoagulation is higher in people on DOACs than on warfarin and in people aged <85 years.

Using UK Biobank for sexual minority health research.

Aim: Despite poorer health and healthcare outcomes experienced by lesbian, gay and bisexual adults, data for research to characterize and address these disparities remain limited. Patients & methods: We describe sexual history information from 502,543 UK Biobank participants recruited between 2006 and 2010, as sexual identity was not collected from the cohort at baseline, and compare this with sexual history and sexual identity responses to the third National Survey of Sexual Attitudes and Lifestyles (NATSAL-3), collected between 2010 and 2012. Results: After exclusions, 700 (0.3%) women and 2112 (1.2%) men in UK Biobank reported a history of exclusively same-sex sex and 5162 (2.3%) women and 4275 (2.3%) men reported a history of sex with both women and men; estimates were consistent with, although slightly lower those from NATSAL-3. Conclusion: UK Biobank is an important resource for sexual minority health research.

Lay abstract Although lesbian, gay and bisexual adults experience poorer health and healthcare outcomes, data for researchers to use to understand and address these disparities remain limited. UK Biobank is a research study which recruited, and is now following up, over half a million adults aged between 40 and 70. When participants were recruited they were not asked about sexual identity but they were asked about their history of sex with both women and men. In this research, we compared the responses to this question in UK Biobank to responses from another survey, the third National Survey of Sexual Attitudes and Lifestyles, and found the estimates were broadly comparable. We also provide some advice to researchers on how to use UK Biobank in future research to explore disparities in health outcomes experienced by lesbian, gay and bisexual adults.

The Costs and Benefits of Risk Stratification for Colorectal Cancer Screening Based On Phenotypic and Genetic Risk: A Health Economic Analysis.

Population-based screening for colorectal cancer is an effective and cost-effective way of reducing colorectal cancer incidence and mortality. Many genetic and phenotypic risk factors for colorectal cancer have been identified, leading to development of colorectal cancer risk scores with varying discrimination. However, these are not currently used by population screening programs. We performed an economic analysis to assess the cost-effectiveness, clinical outcomes, and resource impact of using risk-stratification based on phenotypic and genetic risk, taking a UK National Health Service perspective. Biennial fecal immunochemical test (FIT), starting at an age determined through risk-assessment at age 40, was compared with FIT screening starting at a fixed age for all individuals. Compared with inviting everyone from age 60, using a risk score with area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.721 to determine FIT screening start age, produces 418 QALYs, costs £247,000, and results in 218 fewer colorectal cancer cases and 156 fewer colorectal cancer deaths per 100,000 people, with similar FIT screening invites. There is 96% probability that risk-stratification is cost-effective, with net monetary benefit (based on £20,000 per QALY threshold) estimated at £8.1 million per 100,000 people. The maximum that could be spent on risk-assessment and still be cost-effective is £114 per person. Lower benefits are produced with lower discrimination risk scores, lower mean screening start age, or higher FIT thresholds. Risk-stratified screening benefits men more than women. Using risk to determine FIT screening start age could improve the clinical outcomes and cost effectiveness of colorectal cancer screening without using significant additional screening resources. PREVENTION RELEVANCE: Colorectal cancer screening is essential for early detection and prevention of colorectal cancer, but implementation is often limited by resource constraints. This work shows that risk-stratification using genetic and phenotypic risk could improve the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of screening programs, without using substantially more screening resources than are currently available.

Should colorectal cancer screening start at different ages for men and women? Cost-effectiveness analysis for a resource-constrained service.

BACKGROUND: Men have a greater risk of colorectal cancer (CRC) than women, but population screening currently starts at the same age for both sexes. AIM: This analysis investigates whether, in a resource-constrained setting, it would be more effective and cost-effective for men and women to start screening for CRC at different ages. METHODS AND RESULTS: An economic modeling analysis was carried out using the Microsimulation Model in Cancer of the Bowel to compare sex-stratification against screening everyone from the same age, taking an English National Health Service perspective. Screening men from age 56 and women from age 60, rather than screening everyone from age 58 using a Fecal Immunochemical Test (FIT) threshold of 120 µg/g is expected to produce an additional 0.0004 QALYs for a cost of £0.55 per person at model start (Incremental Cost-effectiveness Ratio = £1392), and to reduce CRC cases and mortality by 25 and 19 per 100 000 people respectively, while using a similar amount of screening resources. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis indicates a 61% probability that sex-stratification is more cost-effective than screening everyone at age 58. Similar benefits of sex-stratification are found at other FIT thresholds, but become negligible if mean screening start age is reduced to 50. CONCLUSION: Where resources are constrained and it is not feasible to screen everyone from the age of 50, starting screening earlier in men than women is likely to be more cost-effective and gain more health benefits overall than strategies where men and women start screening at the same age.

Sociodemographic inequalities in patients' experiences of primary care: an analysis of the General Practice Patient Survey in England between 2011 and 2017.

OBJECTIVE: Younger people, minority ethnic groups, sexual minorities and people of lower socioeconomic status report poorer experiences of primary care. In light of NHS ambitions to reduce unwarranted variations in care, we aimed to investigate whether inequalities in patient experience of primary care changed between 2011 and 2017, using data from the General Practice Patient Survey in England. METHODS: We considered inequalities in relation to age, sex, deprivation, ethnicity, sexual orientation and geographical region across five dimensions of patient experience: overall experience, doctor communication, nurse communication, access and continuity of care. We used linear regression to explore whether the magnitude of inequalities changed between 2011 and 2017, using mixed models to assess changes within practices and models without accounting for practice to assess national trends. RESULTS: We included 5,241,408 responses over 11 survey waves from 2011-2017. There was evidence that inequalities changed over time (p < 0.05 for 27/30 models), but the direction and magnitude of changes varied. Changes in gaps in experience ranged from a 1.6 percentage point increase for experience of access among sexual minorities, to a 5.6 percentage point decrease for continuity, where experience worsened for older ages. Inequalities in access in relation to socio-economic status remained reasonably stable for individuals attending the same GP practice; nationally inequalities in access increased 2.1 percentage points (p < 0.0001) between respondents living in more/less deprived areas, suggesting access is declining fastest in practices in more deprived areas. CONCLUSIONS: There have been few substantial changes in inequalities in patient experience of primary care between 2011 and 2017.

The impact of information about different absolute benefits and harms on intention to participate in colorectal cancer screening: A think-aloud study and online randomised experiment.

BACKGROUND: There is considerable heterogeneity in individuals' risk of disease and thus the absolute benefits and harms of population-wide screening programmes. Using colorectal cancer (CRC) screening as an exemplar, we explored how people make decisions about screening when presented with information about absolute benefits and harms, and how those preferences vary with baseline risk, between screening tests and between individuals. METHOD: We conducted two linked studies with members of the public: a think-aloud study exploring decision making in-depth and an online randomised experiment quantifying preferences. In both, participants completed a web-based survey including information about three screening tests (colonoscopy, sigmoidoscopy, and faecal immunochemical testing) and then up to nine scenarios comparing screening to no screening for three levels of baseline risk (1%, 3% and 5% over 15 years) and the three screening tests. Participants reported, after each scenario, whether they would opt for screening (yes/no). RESULTS: Of the 20 participants in the think-aloud study 13 did not consider absolute benefits or harms when making decisions concerning CRC screening. In the online experiment (n = 978), 60% expressed intention to attend at 1% risk of CRC, 70% at 3% and 77% at 5%, with no differences between screening tests. At an individual level, 535 (54.7%) would attend at all three risk levels and 178 (18.2%) at none. The 27% whose intention varied by baseline risk were more likely to be younger, without a family history of CRC, and without a prior history of screening. CONCLUSIONS: Most people in our population were not influenced by the range of absolute benefits and harms associated with CRC screening presented. For an appreciable minority, however, magnitude of benefit was important.