Proximal ejecta of the Bolaven extraterrestrial impact, southern Laos.

Sediments in southern Laos and eastern Thailand confirm that the Australasian tektite strewn field came from an extraterrestrial impact crater on the Bolaven Plateau of southern Laos. The principal evidence is the Bolaven diamicton, a pebbly to bouldery breccia that is thickest and coarsest on the plateau. Tektites, the melted target material strewn widely by the forces of the impact 789.0 ± 1.8 ka ago, lie either within the uppermost part of the diamicton or atop it. On the flanks of the plateau, the basal diamicton often contains clasts from preimpact lavas and gravels and sometimes mantles broken Mesozoic bedrock. Locally, its upper portions contain unweathered boulders of basalt or sandstone. Its sharp upper contact with a thick sandy silt implies that the two beds formed in rapid succession. These characteristics of the Bolaven diamicton show that it resulted primarily from the excavation, comminution, and launch of sandstone and weathered basaltic lavas from a crater on the Bolaven Plateau, and entrained other materials while in transit.

Australasian impact crater buried under the Bolaven volcanic field, Southern Laos.

The crater and proximal effects of the largest known young meteorite impact on Earth have eluded discovery for nearly a century. We present 4 lines of evidence that the 0.79-Ma impact crater of the Australasian tektites lies buried beneath lavas of a long-lived, 910-km3 volcanic field in Southern Laos: 1) Tektite geochemistry implies the presence of young, weathered basalts at the site at the time of the impact. 2) Geologic mapping and 40Ar-39Ar dates confirm that both pre- and postimpact basaltic lavas exist at the proposed impact site and that postimpact basalts wholly cover it. 3) A gravity anomaly there may also reflect the presence of a buried ∼17 × 13-km crater. 4) The nature of an outcrop of thick, crudely layered, bouldery sandstone and mudstone breccia 10-20 km from the center of the impact and fractured quartz grains within its boulder clasts support its being part of the proximal ejecta blanket.

Highly variable recurrence of tsunamis in the 7,400 years before the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami.

The devastating 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami caught millions of coastal residents and the scientific community off-guard. Subsequent research in the Indian Ocean basin has identified prehistoric tsunamis, but the timing and recurrence intervals of such events are uncertain. Here we present an extraordinary 7,400 year stratigraphic sequence of prehistoric tsunami deposits from a coastal cave in Aceh, Indonesia. This record demonstrates that at least 11 prehistoric tsunamis struck the Aceh coast between 7,400 and 2,900 years ago. The average time period between tsunamis is about 450 years with intervals ranging from a long, dormant period of over 2,000 years, to multiple tsunamis within the span of a century. Although there is evidence that the likelihood of another tsunamigenic earthquake in Aceh province is high, these variable recurrence intervals suggest that long dormant periods may follow Sunda megathrust ruptures as large as that of the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami.

The discovery of a conjugate system of faults in the Wharton Basin intraplate deformation zone.

The deformation at well-defined, narrow plate boundaries depends on the relative plate motion, but how the deformation takes place within a distributed plate boundary zone remains a conundrum. This was confirmed by the seismological analyses of the 2012 great Wharton Basin earthquakes [moment magnitude (Mw) 8.6], which suggested the rupture of several faults at high angles to one another. Using high-resolution bathymetry and seismic reflection data, we report the discovery of new N294°E-striking shear zones, oblique to the plate fabric. These shear zones are expressed by sets of normal faults striking at N335°E, defining the direction of the principal compressional stress in the region. Also, we have imaged left-lateral strike-slip faults along reactivated N7°E-oriented oceanic fracture zones. The shear zones and the reactivated fracture zones form a conjugate system of faults, which accommodate present-day intraplate deformation in the Wharton Basin.

Earthquake supercycles inferred from sea-level changes recorded in the corals of West Sumatra.

Records of relative sea-level change extracted from corals of the Mentawai islands, Sumatra, imply that this 700-kilometer-long section of the Sunda megathrust has generated broadly similar sequences of great earthquakes about every two centuries for at least the past 700 years. The moment magnitude 8.4 earthquake of September 2007 represents the first in a series of large partial failures of the Mentawai section that will probably be completed within the next several decades.

Partial rupture of a locked patch of the Sumatra megathrust during the 2007 earthquake sequence.

The great Sumatra-Andaman earthquake and tsunami of 2004 was a dramatic reminder of the importance of understanding the seismic and tsunami hazards of subduction zones. In March 2005, the Sunda megathrust ruptured again, producing an event of moment magnitude (M(w)) 8.6 south of the 2004 rupture area, which was the site of a similar event in 1861 (ref. 6). Concern was then focused on the Mentawai area, where large earthquakes had occurred in 1797 (M(w) = 8.8) and 1833 (M(w) = 9.0). Two earthquakes, one of M(w) = 8.4 and, twelve hours later, one of M(w) = 7.9, indeed occurred there on 12 September 2007. Here we show that these earthquakes ruptured only a fraction of the area ruptured in 1833 and consist of distinct asperities within a patch of the megathrust that had remained locked in the interseismic period. This indicates that the same portion of a megathrust can rupture in different patterns depending on whether asperities break as isolated seismic events or cooperate to produce a larger rupture. This variability probably arises from the influence of non-permanent barriers, zones with locally lower pre-stress due to the past earthquakes. The stress state of the portion of the Sunda megathrust that had ruptured in 1833 and 1797 was probably not adequate for the development of a single large rupture in 2007. The moment released in 2007 amounts to only a fraction both of that released in 1833 and of the deficit of moment that had accumulated as a result of interseismic strain since 1833. The potential for a large megathrust event in the Mentawai area thus remains large.

Tsunami inundation modeling for western Sumatra.

A long section of the Sunda megathrust south of the great tsunamigenic earthquakes of 2004 and 2005 is well advanced in its seismic cycle and a plausible candidate for rupture in the next few decades. Our computations of tsunami propagation and inundation yield model flow depths and inundations consistent with sparse historical accounts for the last great earthquakes there, in 1797 and 1833. Numerical model results from plausible future ruptures produce flow depths of several meters and inundation up to several kilometers inland near the most populous coastal cities. Our models of historical and future tsunamis confirm a substantial exposure of coastal Sumatran communities to tsunami surges. Potential losses could be as great as those that occurred in Aceh in 2004.

Sumatran megathrust earthquakes: from science to saving lives.

Most of the loss of life, property and well-being stemming from the great Sumatran earthquake and tsunami of 2004 could have been avoided and losses from similar future events can be largely prevented. However, achieving this goal requires forging a chain linking basic science-the study of why, when and where these events occur-to people's everyday lives. The intermediate links in this chain are emergency response preparedness, warning capability, education and infrastructural changes. In this article, I first describe our research on the Sumatran subduction zone. This research has allowed us to understand the basis of the earthquake cycle on the Sumatran megathrust and to reconstruct the sequence of great earthquakes that have occurred there in historic and prehistoric times. On the basis of our findings, we expect that one or two more great earthquakes and tsunamis, nearly as devastating as the 2004 event, are to be expected within the next few decades in a region of coastal Sumatra to the south of the zone affected in 2004. I go on to argue that preventing future tragedies does not necessarily involve hugely expensive or high-tech solutions such as the construction of coastal defences or sensor-based tsunami warning systems. More valuable and practical steps include extending the scientific research, educating the at-risk populations as to what to do in the event of a long-lasting earthquake (i.e. one that might be followed by a tsunami), taking simple measures to strengthen buildings against shaking, providing adequate escape routes and helping the residents of the vulnerable low-lying coastal strips to relocate their homes and businesses to land that is higher or farther from the coast. Such steps could save hundreds and thousands of lives in the coastal cities and offshore islands of western Sumatra, and have general applicability to strategies for helping the developing nations to deal with natural hazards.

Frictional afterslip following the 2005 Nias-Simeulue earthquake, Sumatra.

Continuously recording Global Positioning System stations near the 28 March 2005 rupture of the Sunda megathrust [moment magnitude (Mw) 8.7] show that the earthquake triggered aseismic frictional afterslip on the subduction megathrust, with a major fraction of this slip in the up-dip direction from the main rupture. Eleven months after the main shock, afterslip continues at rates several times the average interseismic rate, resulting in deformation equivalent to at least a M(w) 8.2 earthquake. In general, along-strike variations in frictional behavior appear to persist over multiple earthquake cycles. Aftershocks cluster along the boundary between the region of coseismic slip and the up-dip creeping zone. We observe that the cumulative number of aftershocks increases linearly with postseismic displacements; this finding suggests that the temporal evolution of aftershocks is governed by afterslip.

Deformation and slip along the Sunda megathrust in the great 2005 Nias-Simeulue earthquake.

Seismic rupture produced spectacular tectonic deformation above a 400-kilometer strip of the Sunda megathrust, offshore northern Sumatra, in March 2005. Measurements from coral microatolls and Global Positioning System stations reveal trench-parallel belts of uplift up to 3 meters high on the outer-arc islands above the rupture and a 1-meter-deep subsidence trough farther from the trench. Surface deformation reflects more than 11 meters of fault slip under the islands and a pronounced lessening of slip trenchward. A saddle in megathrust slip separates the northwestern edge of the 2005 rupture from the great 2004 Sumatra-Andaman rupture. The southeastern edge abuts a predominantly aseismic section of the megathrust near the equator.

Plate-boundary deformation associated with the great Sumatra-Andaman earthquake.

The Sumatra-Andaman earthquake of 26 December 2004 is the first giant earthquake (moment magnitude M(w) > 9.0) to have occurred since the advent of modern space-based geodesy and broadband seismology. It therefore provides an unprecedented opportunity to investigate the characteristics of one of these enormous and rare events. Here we report estimates of the ground displacement associated with this event, using near-field Global Positioning System (GPS) surveys in northwestern Sumatra combined with in situ and remote observations of the vertical motion of coral reefs. These data show that the earthquake was generated by rupture of the Sunda subduction megathrust over a distance of >1,500 kilometres and a width of <150 kilometres. Megathrust slip exceeded 20 metres offshore northern Sumatra, mostly at depths shallower than 30 kilometres. Comparison of the geodetically and seismically inferred slip distribution indicates that approximately 30 per cent additional fault slip accrued in the 1.5 months following the 500-second-long seismic rupture. Both seismic and aseismic slip before our re-occupation of GPS sites occurred on the shallow portion of the megathrust, where the large Aceh tsunami originated. Slip tapers off abruptly along strike beneath Simeulue Island at the southeastern edge of the rupture, where the earthquake nucleated and where an M(w) = 7.2 earthquake occurred in late 2002. This edge also abuts the northern limit of slip in the 28 March 2005 M(w) = 8.7 Nias-Simeulue earthquake.

Seismology: earthquake risk on the Sunda trench.

On 28 March 2005 the Sunda megathrust in Indonesia ruptured again, producing another great earthquake three months after the previous one. The rupture was contiguous with that of the December 2004 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake, and is likely to have been sparked by local stress, although the triggering stresses at its hypocentre were very small - of the order of just 0.1 bar. Calculations show that stresses imposed by the second rupture have brought closer to failure the megathrust immediately to the south, under the Batu and Mentawai islands, and have expanded the area of increased stress on the Sumatra fault. Palaeoseismologic studies show that the Mentawai segment of the Sunda megathrust is well advanced in its seismic cycle and is therefore a good candidate for triggered failure.

The 2002 Denali fault earthquake, Alaska: a large magnitude, slip-partitioned event.

The MW (moment magnitude) 7.9 Denali fault earthquake on 3 November 2002 was associated with 340 kilometers of surface rupture and was the largest strike-slip earthquake in North America in almost 150 years. It illuminates earthquake mechanics and hazards of large strike-slip faults. It began with thrusting on the previously unrecognized Susitna Glacier fault, continued with right-slip on the Denali fault, then took a right step and continued with right-slip on the Totschunda fault. There is good correlation between geologically observed and geophysically inferred moment release. The earthquake produced unusually strong distal effects in the rupture propagation direction, including triggered seismicity.