Neonatal mortality risk of large-for-gestational-age and macrosomic live births in 15 countries, including 115.6 million nationwide linked records, 2000-2020.

OBJECTIVE: We aimed to compare the prevalence and neonatal mortality associated with large for gestational age (LGA) and macrosomia among 115.6 million live births in 15 countries, between 2000 and 2020. DESIGN: Population-based, multi-country study. SETTING: National healthcare systems. POPULATION: Liveborn infants. METHODS: We used individual-level data identified for the Vulnerable Newborn Measurement Collaboration. We calculated the prevalence and relative risk (RR) of neonatal mortality among live births born at term + LGA (>90th centile, and also >95th and >97th centiles when the data were available) versus term + appropriate for gestational age (AGA, 10th-90th centiles) and macrosomic (≥4000, ≥4500 and ≥5000 g, regardless of gestational age) versus 2500-3999 g. INTERGROWTH 21st served as the reference population. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Prevalence and neonatal mortality risks. RESULTS: Large for gestational age was common (median prevalence 18.2%; interquartile range, IQR, 13.5%-22.0%), and overall was associated with a lower neonatal mortality risk compared with AGA (RR 0.83, 95% CI 0.77-0.89). Around one in ten babies were ≥4000 g (median prevalence 9.6% (IQR 6.4%-13.3%), with 1.2% (IQR 0.7%-2.0%) ≥4500 g and with 0.2% (IQR 0.1%-0.2%) ≥5000 g). Overall, macrosomia of ≥4000 g was not associated with increased neonatal mortality risk (RR 0.80, 95% CI 0.69-0.94); however, a higher risk was observed for birthweights of ≥4500 g (RR 1.52, 95% CI 1.10-2.11) and ≥5000 g (RR 4.54, 95% CI 2.58-7.99), compared with birthweights of 2500-3999 g, with the highest risk observed in the first 7 days of life. CONCLUSIONS: In this population, birthweight of ≥4500 g was the most useful marker for early mortality risk in big babies and could be used to guide clinical management decisions.

Neonatal mortality risk for vulnerable newborn types in 15 countries using 125.5 million nationwide birth outcome records, 2000-2020.

OBJECTIVE: To compare neonatal mortality associated with six novel vulnerable newborn types in 125.5 million live births across 15 countries, 2000-2020. DESIGN: Population-based, multi-country study. SETTING: National data systems in 15 middle- and high-income countries. METHODS: We used individual-level data sets identified for the Vulnerable Newborn Measurement Collaboration. We examined the contribution to neonatal mortality of six newborn types combining gestational age (preterm [PT] versus term [T]) and size-for-gestational age (small [SGA], <10th centile, appropriate [AGA], 10th-90th centile or large [LGA], >90th centile) according to INTERGROWTH-21st newborn standards. Newborn babies with PT or SGA were defined as small and T + LGA was considered as large. We calculated risk ratios (RRs) and population attributable risks (PAR%) for the six newborn types. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Mortality of six newborn types. RESULTS: Of 125.5 million live births analysed, risk ratios were highest among PT + SGA (median 67.2, interquartile range [IQR] 45.6-73.9), PT + AGA (median 34.3, IQR 23.9-37.5) and PT + LGA (median 28.3, IQR 18.4-32.3). At the population level, PT + AGA was the greatest contributor to newborn mortality (median PAR% 53.7, IQR 44.5-54.9). Mortality risk was highest among newborns born before 28 weeks (median RR 279.5, IQR 234.2-388.5) compared with babies born between 37 and 42 completed weeks or with a birthweight less than 1000 g (median RR 282.8, IQR 194.7-342.8) compared with those between 2500 g and 4000 g as a reference group. CONCLUSION: Preterm newborn types were the most vulnerable, and associated with the highest mortality, particularly with co-existence of preterm and SGA. As PT + AGA is more prevalent, it is responsible for the greatest burden of neonatal deaths at population level.

Vulnerable newborn types: Analysis of population-based registries for 165 million births in 23 countries, 2000-2021.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the prevalence of novel newborn types among 165 million live births in 23 countries from 2000 to 2021. DESIGN: Population-based, multi-country analysis. SETTING: National data systems in 23 middle- and high-income countries. POPULATION: Liveborn infants. METHODS: Country teams with high-quality data were invited to be part of the Vulnerable Newborn Measurement Collaboration. We classified live births by six newborn types based on gestational age information (preterm <37 weeks versus term ≥37 weeks) and size for gestational age defined as small (SGA, <10th centile), appropriate (10th-90th centiles), or large (LGA, >90th centile) for gestational age, according to INTERGROWTH-21st standards. We considered small newborn types of any combination of preterm or SGA, and term + LGA was considered large. Time trends were analysed using 3-year moving averages for small and large types. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Prevalence of six newborn types. RESULTS: We analysed 165 017 419 live births and the median prevalence of small types was 11.7% - highest in Malaysia (26%) and Qatar (15.7%). Overall, 18.1% of newborns were large (term + LGA) and was highest in Estonia 28.8% and Denmark 25.9%. Time trends of small and large infants were relatively stable in most countries. CONCLUSIONS: The distribution of newborn types varies across the 23 middle- and high-income countries. Small newborn types were highest in west Asian countries and large types were highest in Europe. To better understand the global patterns of these novel newborn types, more information is needed, especially from low- and middle-income countries.

National data linkage assessment of live births and deaths in Mexico: Estimating under-five mortality rate ratios for vulnerable newborns and trends from 2008 to 2019.

BACKGROUND: Linked datasets that enable longitudinal assessments are scarce in low and middle-income countries. OBJECTIVES: We aimed to assess the linkage of administrative databases of live births and under-five child deaths to explore mortality and trends for preterm, small (SGA) and large for gestational age (LGA) in Mexico. METHODS: We linked individual-level datasets collected by National statistics from 2008 to 2019. Linkage was performed based on agreement on birthday, sex, residential address. We used the Centre for Data and Knowledge Integration for Health software to identify the best candidate pairs based on similarity. Accuracy was assessed by calculating the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. We evaluated completeness by comparing the number of linked records with reported deaths. We described the percentage of linked records by baseline characteristics to identify potential bias. Using the linked dataset, we calculated mortality rate ratios (RR) in neonatal, infants, and children under-five according to gestational age, birthweight, and size. RESULTS: For the period 2008-2019, a total of 24,955,172 live births and 321,165 under-five deaths were available for linkage. We excluded 1,539,046 records (6.2%) with missing or implausible values. We succesfully linked 231,765 deaths (72.2%: range 57.1% in 2009 and 84.3% in 2011). The rate of neonatal mortality was higher for preterm compared with term (RR 3.83, 95% confidence interval, [CI] 3.78, 3.88) and for SGA compared with appropriate for gestational age (AGA) (RR 1.22 95% CI, 1.19, 1.24). Births at <28 weeks had the highest mortality (RR 35.92, 95% CI, 34.97, 36.88). LGA had no additional risk vs AGA among children under five (RR 0.92, 95% CI, 0.90, 0.93). CONCLUSIONS: We demonstrated the utility of linked data to understand neonatal vulnerability and child mortality. We created a linked dataset that would be a valuable resource for future population-based research.

Risk of mortality for small newborns in Brazil, 2011-2018: A national birth cohort study of 17.6 million records from routine register-based linked data.

BACKGROUND: Preterm birth (<37 weeks), low birth weight (LBW,<2500g), and small for gestational age (SGA,<10th centile of birth weight for gestational age and sex) are markers of newborn vulnerability with a high risk of mortality. We estimated the prevalence of phenotypes combining these three markers and quantified the mortality risk associated with them. METHODS: Population-based cohort study using routine register-based linked data on all births and deaths in Brazil from January 1, 2011, to December 31, 2018. We estimated the prevalence of preterm, LBW, and SGA individually and for phenotypes combining these characteristics. The mortality risk associated with each phenotype: early neonatal, late neonatal, neonatal, post-neonatal, infant, 1-4 years, and under five years was quantified using mortality rates and hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence interval (CI) were estimated using Cox proportional hazard models. FINDINGS: 17,646,115 live births were included. Prevalence of preterm birth, LBW and SGA were 9.4%, 9.6% and 9.2%, respectively. Neonatal mortality risk was 16-fold (HR=15.9; 95% CI:15.7-16.1) higher for preterm compared to term, 3 times higher (HR=3.4; (95% CI:3.3-3.4) for SGA compared to adequate for gestational age (AGA), and >25 times higher for LBW (HR=25.8; (95% CI:25.5-26.1) compared to normal birth weight (NBW). 18% of all live births were included in one of the small vulnerable newborn phenotypes. Of those 8.2% were term-SGA (4.7%NBW, 3.5%LBW), 0.6% were term-AGA-LBW, 8.3% preterm-AGA (3.8%NBW, 4.5%LBW) and 1.0% preterm-SGA-LBW. Compared to term-AGA-NBW, the highest mortality risk was for preterm-LBW phenotypes (HR=36.2(95%CI 35.6-36.8) preterm-AGA-LBW, HR=62.0(95%CI 60.8-63.2) preterm-SGA-LBW). The increased mortality risk associated with vulnerable newborn phenotypes was highest in the first month of life, with attenuated but continued high risk in the post-neonatal period and 1-4 years of age. INTERPRETATION: Our findings support the value of using more detailed phenotypes to identify those at highest risk. More granular data can inform care at the individual level, advance research, especially for prevention, and accelerate progress towards global targets such as the Sustainable Development Goals. FUNDING: Wellcome Trust.

Integrated Measurement for Early Detection (MIDO) as a digital strategy for timely assessment of non-communicable disease profiles and factors associated with unawareness and control: a retrospective observational study in primary healthcare facilities in Mexico.

OBJECTIVES: The Carlos Slim Foundation implemented the Integrated Measurement for Early Detection (MIDO), a screening strategy for non-communicable diseases (NCDs) in Mexico as part of CASALUD, a portfolio of digital health services focusing on healthcare delivery and prevention/management of NCDs. We investigated the disease profile of the screened population and evaluated MIDO's contribution to the continuum of care of the main NCDs. DESIGN: Using data from MIDO and the chronic diseases information system, we quantified the proportion of the population screened and diagnosed with NCDs, and measured care linkage/retention and level of control achieved. We analysed comorbidity patterns and estimated prevalence of predisease stages. Finally, we estimated characteristics associated with unawareness and control of NCDs, and examined efficacy of the CASALUD model in improving NCD control. SETTING: Public primary health centres in 27/32 Mexican states. PARTICIPANTS: Individuals aged ≥20 years lacking healthcare access. RESULTS: From 2014 to 2018, 743 000 individuals were screened using MIDO. A predisease or disease condition was detected in ≥70% of the population who were unaware of their NCD status. The screening identified 38 417 new cases of type 2 diabetes, 53 133 new cases of hypertension and 208 627 individuals with obesity. Dyslipidaemia was found in 77.3% of individuals with available blood samples. Comorbidities were highly prevalent, especially in people with obesity. Only 5.47% (n=17 774) of individuals were linked with their corresponding primary health centre. Factors associated with unawareness of and uncontrolled NCDs were sex, age, and social determinants, for example, rural/urban environment, access to healthcare service, and education level. Patients with type 2 diabetes treated at clinics under the CASALUD model were more likely to achieve disease control (OR: 1.32, 95% CI: 1.09 to 1.61). CONCLUSION: Patient-centred screening strategies such as MIDO are urgently needed to improve screening, access, retention and control for patients with NCDs.

Outbreak of Vibrio cholerae serogroup O1, serotype Ogawa, biotype El Tor strain--La Huasteca Region, Mexico, 2013.

On September 2 and 6, 2013, Mexico's National System of Epidemiological Surveillance identified two cases of cholera in Mexico City. Rectal swab cultures from both patients were confirmed as toxigenic Vibrio cholerae serogroup O1, serotype Ogawa, biotype El Tor. Pulsed-field gel electrophoresis and virulence gene amplification (ctxA, ctxB, zot, and ace) demonstrated that the strains were identical to one another but different from strains circulating in Mexico previously. The strains were indistinguishable from the strain that has caused outbreaks in Haiti, the Dominican Republic, and Cuba. The strain was susceptible to doxycycline, had intermediate susceptibility to ampicillin and chloramphenicol, was less than fully susceptible to ciprofloxacin, and was resistant to furazolidone and trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole. An investigation failed to identify a common source of infection, additional cases, or any epidemiologic link between the cases. Both patients were treated with a single, 300-mg dose of doxycycline, and their symptoms resolved.

Contribution of Mexico's Universal Immunization Program to the Fourth Millennium Development Goal.

OBJECTIVE: To identify and describe 1) progress achieved thus far in meeting the commitments of the Fourth Millennium Development Goal (MDG 4) in Mexico, mainly the contribution of the Universal Immunization Program (UIP) over the last 20 years, and 2) new opportunities for further reducing mortality among children under 5 years old. METHODS: An observational, descriptive, retrospective study was carried out to examine registered causes of death in children under 5 between 1990 and 2010. Indicators were built according to the recommendations of the United Nations. RESULTS: In 2010, deaths among children under 5 decreased 64.3% compared to the baseline (1990) figure. Of the total deaths of the children under 5, the neonatal period was the most affected (52.8%), followed by the 1 to 11 months (30.9%), and the 12 to 59 months (16.2%) groups. A 34% overall mortality reduction was observed after the universalization of immunization against influenza, rotavirus, and pneumococcus in children under 5. CONCLUSIONS: Despite a significant reduction in under-5 mortality in Mexico over the last 20 years, largely due to the successes of the UIP, several challenges remain, particularly in improving preventive and curative services during pre- and postnatal care.

Contribution of Mexico's Universal Immunization Program to the Fourth Millennium Development Goal / Contribución del Programa de Vacunación Universal de México al cuarto Objetivo de Desarrollo del Milenio

OBJECTIVE: To identify and describe 1) progress achieved thus far in meeting the commitments of the Fourth Millennium Development Goal (MDG 4) in Mexico, mainly the contribution of the Universal Immunization Program (UIP) over the last 20 years, and 2) new opportunities for further reducing mortality among children under 5 years old. METHODS: An observational, descriptive, retrospective study was carried out to examine registered causes of death in children under 5 between 1990 and 2010. Indicators were built according to the recommendations of the United Nations. RESULTS: In 2010, deaths among children under 5 decreased 64.3% compared to the baseline (1990) figure. Of the total deaths of the children under 5, the neonatal period was the most affected (52.8%), followed by the 1 to 11 months (30.9%), and the 12 to 59 months (16.2%) groups. A 34% overall mortality reduction was observed after the universalization of immunization against influenza, rotavirus, and pneumococcus in children under 5. CONCLUSIONS: Despite a significant reduction in under-5 mortality in Mexico over the last 20 years, largely due to the successes of the UIP, several challenges remain, particularly in improving preventive and curative services during pre- and postnatal care.

OBJETIVO: Determinar y describir 1) el progreso logrado hasta el momento en el cumplimiento de los compromisos del cuarto Objetivo de Desarrollo del Milenio en México, principalmente la contribución del Programa de Vacunación Universal (PVU) durante los 20 últimos años; y 2) las nuevas oportunidades para reducir aún más la mortalidad en niños menores de cinco años. MÉTODOS: Se llevó a cabo un estudio de observación, descriptivo y retrospectivo para analizar las causas registradas de muerte en niños menores de cinco años entre 1990 y el 2010. Se elaboraron indicadores según las recomendaciones de las Naciones Unidas. RESULTADOS: En el 2010, las defunciones en niños menores de cinco años se habían reducido en 64,3% en comparación con las cifras de referencia (1990). La mayor disminución de la mortalidad se observó en recién nacidos (52,8%), seguidos por los lactantes de 1 a 11 meses (30,9%) y los niños de 12 a 59 meses (16,2%). Se observó una reducción total de la mortalidad de 34% tras la universalización de la vacunación contra la gripe, el rotavirus y el neumococo en niños menores de cinco años. CONCLUSIONES: A pesar de una reducción significativa de la mortalidad en menores de cinco años en México durante los 20 últimos años, en gran parte debida a los éxitos del PVU, siguen existiendo diversos retos, en particular en cuanto a la mejora de los servicios preventivos y curativos durante la atención prenatal y posnatal.

Tos ferina, un problema vigente de salud pública en México: Planteamiento de la necesidad para introducir una nueva vacuna / Shaping a new strategy against B. pertussis: a public health problem in Mexico

A pesar de la vacunación contra B. pertussis, se sigue reportando un gran número de muertes por tos ferina a nivel mundial. La pérdida de la inmunidad a través de los años y el incremento de la incidencia en adolescentes y adultos han sustentado el papel de estos grupos de edad en la transmisión de la enfermedad. Diversos países han implementado nuevas estrategias de vacunación con la finalidad de reducir su transmisión y significado clínico. En México, la tos ferina es un problema de salud pública vigente, y su control presenta algunos obstáculos, como la sospecha clínica fuera de la etapa del lactante, la confirmación del diagnóstico, los esquemas de vacunación tardíos o incompletos y la dificultad para limitar su transmisibilidad. La introducción de nuevas estrategias de vacunación en adolescentes y adultos, así como en las mujeres embarazadas, contribuirían al control de la enfermedad y limitarían sus complicaciones.

Despite vaccination against pertussis, there are still a large number of pertussis deaths worldwide. Waning vaccine-induced immunity and the gradual increase in reported incidence among adolescents and adults have supported the role of these age groups in the transmission. Several countries have implemented a booster vaccination in order to reduce transmission and clinical significance. Pertussis is a current public health problem in Mexico. The clinical suspicion in toddlers, adolescents and adults, delayed or incomplete vaccination series and diagnosis confirmation are the most important challenges for pertussis control. The introduction of new vaccination strategies in adults and adolescents as well as pregnant women should improve disease control.