Utilizing genomics and historical data to optimize gene pools for new breeding programs: A case study in winter wheat.

With the rapid generation and preservation of both genomic and phenotypic information for many genotypes within crops and across locations, emerging breeding programs have a valuable opportunity to leverage these resources to 1) establish the most appropriate genetic foundation at program inception and 2) implement robust genomic prediction platforms that can effectively select future breeding lines. Integrating genomics-enabled breeding into cultivar development can save costs and allow resources to be reallocated towards advanced (i.e., later) stages of field evaluation, which can facilitate an increased number of testing locations and replicates within locations. In this context, a reestablished winter wheat breeding program was used as a case study to understand best practices to leverage and tailor existing genomic and phenotypic resources to determine optimal genetics for a specific target population of environments. First, historical multi-environment phenotype data, representing 1,285 advanced breeding lines, were compiled from multi-institutional testing as part of the SunGrains cooperative and used to produce GGE biplots and PCA for yield. Locations were clustered based on highly correlated line performance among the target population of environments into 22 subsets. For each of the subsets generated, EMMs and BLUPs were calculated using linear models with the 'lme4' R package. Second, for each subset, TPs representative of the new SC breeding lines were determined based on genetic relatedness using the 'STPGA' R package. Third, for each TP, phenotypic values and SNP data were incorporated into the 'rrBLUP' mixed models for generation of GEBVs of YLD, TW, HD and PH. Using a five-fold cross-validation strategy, an average accuracy of r = 0.42 was obtained for yield between all TPs. The validation performed with 58 SC elite breeding lines resulted in an accuracy of r = 0.62 when the TP included complete historical data. Lastly, QTL-by-environment interaction for 18 major effect genes across three geographic regions was examined. Lines harboring major QTL in the absence of disease could potentially underperform (e.g., Fhb1 R-gene), whereas it is advantageous to express a major QTL under biotic pressure (e.g., stripe rust R-gene). This study highlights the importance of genomics-enabled breeding and multi-institutional partnerships to accelerate cultivar development.

Profiling of Fusarium head blight resistance QTL haplotypes through molecular markers, genotyping-by-sequencing, and machine learning.

KEY MESSAGE: Marker-assisted selection is important for cultivar development. We propose a system where a training population genotyped for QTL and genome-wide markers may predict QTL haplotypes in early development germplasm. Breeders screen germplasm with molecular markers to identify and select individuals that have desirable haplotypes. The objective of this research was to investigate whether QTL haplotypes can be accurately predicted using SNPs derived by genotyping-by-sequencing (GBS). In the SunGrains program during 2020 (SG20) and 2021 (SG21), 1,536 and 2,352 lines submitted for GBS were genotyped with markers linked to the Fusarium head blight QTL: Qfhb.nc-1A, Qfhb.vt-1B, Fhb1, and Qfhb.nc-4A. In parallel, data were compiled from the 2011-2020 Southern Uniform Winter Wheat Scab Nursery (SUWWSN), which had been screened for the same QTL, sequenced via GBS, and phenotyped for: visual Fusarium severity rating (SEV), percent Fusarium damaged kernels (FDK), deoxynivalenol content (DON), plant height, and heading date. Three machine learning models were evaluated: random forest, k-nearest neighbors, and gradient boosting machine. Data were randomly partitioned into training-testing splits. The QTL haplotype and 100 most correlated GBS SNPs were used for training and tuning of each model. Trained machine learning models were used to predict QTL haplotypes in the testing partition of SG20, SG21, and the total SUWWSN. Mean disease ratings for the observed and predicted QTL haplotypes were compared in the SUWWSN. For all models trained using the SG20 and SG21, the observed Fhb1 haplotype estimated group means for SEV, FDK, DON, plant height, and heading date in the SUWWSN were not significantly different from any of the predicted Fhb1 calls. This indicated that machine learning may be utilized in breeding programs to accurately predict QTL haplotypes in earlier generations.

Genome-wide QTL mapping of yield and agronomic traits in two widely adapted winter wheat cultivars from multiple mega-environments.

Quantitative trait loci (QTL) analysis could help to identify suitable molecular markers for marker-assisted breeding (MAB). A mapping population of 124 F5:7recombinant inbred lines derived from the cross 'TAM 112'/'TAM 111' was grown under 28 diverse environments and evaluated for grain yield, test weight, heading date, and plant height. The objective of this study was to detect QTL conferring grain yield and agronomic traits from multiple mega-environments. Through a linkage map with 5,948 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), 51 QTL were consistently identified in two or more environments or analyses. Ten QTL linked to two or more traits were also identified on chromosomes 1A, 1D, 4B, 4D, 6A, 7B, and 7D. Those QTL explained up to 13.3% of additive phenotypic variations with the additive logarithm of odds (LOD(A)) scores up to 11.2. The additive effect increased yield up to 8.16 and 6.57 g m-2 and increased test weight by 2.14 and 3.47 kg m-3 with favorable alleles from TAM 111 and TAM 112, respectively. Seven major QTL for yield and six for TW with one in common were of our interest on MAB as they explained 5% or more phenotypic variations through additive effects. This study confirmed previously identified loci and identified new QTL and the favorable alleles for improving grain yield and agronomic traits.

Training population selection and use of fixed effects to optimize genomic predictions in a historical USA winter wheat panel.

KEY MESSAGE: The optimization of training populations and the use of diagnostic markers as fixed effects increase the predictive ability of genomic prediction models in a cooperative wheat breeding panel. Plant breeding programs often have access to a large amount of historical data that is highly unbalanced, particularly across years. This study examined approaches to utilize these data sets as training populations to integrate genomic selection into existing pipelines. We used cross-validation to evaluate predictive ability in an unbalanced data set of 467 winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) genotypes evaluated in the Gulf Atlantic Wheat Nursery from 2008 to 2016. We evaluated the impact of different training population sizes and training population selection methods (Random, Clustering, PEVmean and PEVmean1) on predictive ability. We also evaluated inclusion of markers associated with major genes as fixed effects in prediction models for heading date, plant height, and resistance to powdery mildew (caused by Blumeria graminis f. sp. tritici). Increases in predictive ability as the size of the training population increased were more evident for Random and Clustering training population selection methods than for PEVmean and PEVmean1. The selection methods based on minimization of the prediction error variance (PEV) outperformed the Random and Clustering methods across all the population sizes. Major genes added as fixed effects always improved model predictive ability, with the greatest gains coming from combinations of multiple genes. Maximum predictabilities among all prediction methods were 0.64 for grain yield, 0.56 for test weight, 0.71 for heading date, 0.73 for plant height, and 0.60 for powdery mildew resistance. Our results demonstrate the utility of combining unbalanced phenotypic records with genome-wide SNP marker data for predicting the performance of untested genotypes.