Supporting Spartina: Interdisciplinary perspective shows Spartina as a distinct solid genus.

In 2014, a DNA-based phylogenetic study confirming the paraphyly of the grass subtribe Sporobolinae proposed the creation of a large monophyletic genus Sporobolus, including (among others) species previously included in the genera Spartina, Calamovilfa, and Sporobolus. Spartina species have contributed substantially (and continue contributing) to our knowledge in multiple disciplines, including ecology, evolutionary biology, molecular biology, biogeography, experimental ecology, biological invasions, environmental management, restoration ecology, history, economics, and sociology. There is no rationale so compelling to subsume the name Spartina as a subgenus that could rival the striking, global iconic history and use of the name Spartina for over 200 yr. We do not agree with the subjective arguments underlying the proposal to change Spartina to Sporobolus. We understand the importance of both the objective phylogenetic insights and of the subjective formalized nomenclature and hope that by opening this debate we will encourage positive feedback that will strengthen taxonomic decisions with an interdisciplinary perspective. We consider that the strongly distinct, monophyletic clade Spartina should simply and efficiently be treated as the genus Spartina.

Comment on "Legacy nitrogen may prevent achievement of water quality goals in the Gulf of Mexico".

Van Meter et al (Reports, 27 April 2018, p. 427) warn that achieving nitrogen reduction goals in the Gulf of Mexico will take decades as a result of legacy nitrogen effects. We discuss limitations of the modeling approach and demonstrate that legacy effects ranging from a few years to decades are equally consistent with observations. The presented time scales for system recovery are therefore highly uncertain.

Trends in summer bottom-water temperatures on the northern Gulf of Mexico continental shelf from 1985 to 2015.

We quantified trends in the 1985 to 2015 summer bottom-water temperature on the northern Gulf of Mexico (nGOM) continental shelf for data collected at 88 stations with depths ranging from 3 to 63 m. The analysis was supplemented with monthly data collected from 1963 to 1965 in the same area. The seasonal summer peak in average bottom-water temperature varied concurrently with air temperature, but with a 2- to 5-month lag. The summer bottom-water temperature declined gradually with depth from 30 oC at stations closest to the shore, to 20 oC at the offshore edge of the study area, and increased an average 0.051 oC y-1 between1963 and 2015. The bottom-water warming in summer for all stations was 1.9 times faster compared to the rise in local summer air temperatures, and 6.4 times faster than the concurrent increase in annual global ocean sea surface temperatures. The annual rise in average summer bottom-water temperatures on the subtropical nGOM continental shelf is comparable to the few published temperature trend estimates from colder environments. These recent changes in the heat storage on the nGOM continental shelf will affect oxygen and carbon cycling, spatial distribution of fish and shrimp, and overall species diversity.

Ensemble modeling informs hypoxia management in the northern Gulf of Mexico.

A large region of low-dissolved-oxygen bottom waters (hypoxia) forms nearly every summer in the northern Gulf of Mexico because of nutrient inputs from the Mississippi River Basin and water column stratification. Policymakers developed goals to reduce the area of hypoxic extent because of its ecological, economic, and commercial fisheries impacts. However, the goals remain elusive after 30 y of research and monitoring and 15 y of goal-setting and assessment because there has been little change in river nitrogen concentrations. An intergovernmental Task Force recently extended to 2035 the deadline for achieving the goal of a 5,000-km2 5-y average hypoxic zone and set an interim load target of a 20% reduction of the spring nitrogen loading from the Mississippi River by 2025 as part of their adaptive management process. The Task Force has asked modelers to reassess the loading reduction required to achieve the 2035 goal and to determine the effect of the 20% interim load reduction. Here, we address both questions using a probabilistic ensemble of four substantially different hypoxia models. Our results indicate that, under typical weather conditions, a 59% reduction in Mississippi River nitrogen load is required to reduce hypoxic area to 5,000 km2 The interim goal of a 20% load reduction is expected to produce an 18% reduction in hypoxic area over the long term. However, due to substantial interannual variability, a 25% load reduction is required before there is 95% certainty of observing any hypoxic area reduction between consecutive 5-y assessment periods.

Changing Dynamics of Dissolved Organic Matter Fluorescence in the Northern Gulf of Mexico Following the Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill.

The characteristics of fluorescent components of dissolved organic matter (DOM) were examined using excitation emission matrix (EEM) fluorescence spectroscopy combined with parallel-factor analysis (PARAFAC) for seawater samples obtained from the northern Gulf of Mexico (NGoM) before, during, and after the 2010 Deepwater Horizon (DwH) oil spill. An EEMs PARAFAC modeling of samples collected within 16 km of the wellhead during the oil spill in May 2010, which included one typical subsurface sample with a PAH concentration of 1.09 µg/L, identified two humic-like and two previously reported oil-like components. Compared to prespill levels, however, there were order-of-magnitude higher fluorescence intensities associated with these components that are consistent with an oil-spill source. The spectral decomposition of the EEMs data using individual and combined data sets from coastal and offshore waters impacted by the DwH spill further revealed the changing nature of fluorescent DOM composition. Although the PAHs concentrations were at prespill conditions after the spill in 2012 and 2013 near the DwH site, the variable and anomalous levels of fluorescence intensities and DOC concentrations three years after the spill suggest the potential long-term persistence of the oil in the DOC pool in the NGoM.

Cost-effective targeting of conservation investments to reduce the northern Gulf of Mexico hypoxic zone.

A seasonally occurring summer hypoxic (low oxygen) zone in the northern Gulf of Mexico is the second largest in the world. Reductions in nutrients from agricultural cropland in its watershed are needed to reduce the hypoxic zone size to the national policy goal of 5,000 km(2) (as a 5-y running average) set by the national Gulf of Mexico Task Force's Action Plan. We develop an integrated assessment model linking the water quality effects of cropland conservation investment decisions on the more than 550 agricultural subwatersheds that deliver nutrients into the Gulf with a hypoxic zone model. We use this integrated assessment model to identify the most cost-effective subwatersheds to target for cropland conservation investments. We consider targeting of the location (which subwatersheds to treat) and the extent of conservation investment to undertake (how much cropland within a subwatershed to treat). We use process models to simulate the dynamics of the effects of cropland conservation investments on nutrient delivery to the Gulf and use an evolutionary algorithm to solve the optimization problem. Model results suggest that by targeting cropland conservation investments to the most cost-effective location and extent of coverage, the Action Plan goal of 5,000 km(2) can be achieved at a cost of $2.7 billion annually. A large set of cost-hypoxia tradeoffs is developed, ranging from the baseline to the nontargeted adoption of the most aggressive cropland conservation investments in all subwatersheds (estimated to reduce the hypoxic zone to less than 3,000 km(2) at a cost of $5.6 billion annually).

Retrospective analysis of midsummer hypoxic area and volume in the northern Gulf of Mexico, 1985-2011.

Robust estimates of hypoxic extent (both area and volume) are important for assessing the impacts of low dissolved oxygen on aquatic ecosystems at large spatial scales. Such estimates are also important for calibrating models linking hypoxia to causal factors, such as nutrient loading and stratification, and for informing management decisions. In this study, we develop a rigorous geostatistical modeling framework to estimate the hypoxic extent in the northern Gulf of Mexico from data collected during midsummer, quasi-synoptic monitoring cruises (1985-2011). Instead of a traditional interpolation-based approach, we use a simulation-based approach that yields more robust extent estimates and quantified uncertainty. The modeling framework also makes use of covariate information (i.e., trend variables such as depth and spatial position), to reduce estimation uncertainty. Furthermore, adjustments are made to account for observational bias resulting from the use of different sampling instruments in different years. Our results suggest an increasing trend in hypoxic layer thickness (p = 0.05) from 1985 to 2011, but less than significant increases in volume (p = 0.12) and area (p = 0.42). The uncertainties in the extent estimates vary with sampling network coverage and instrument type, and generally decrease over the study period.

Gulf of Mexico hypoxia: alternate states and a legacy.

A 20+ year data set of the size of the hypoxic zone off the Louisiana-Texas coast is analyzed to reveal insights about what causes variation in the size of the hypoxic zone in summer, the accumulation of carbon storage in sediments, and pelagic and sediment oxygen demand. The results of models support the conclusion that some of this variation can be explained by a higher sedimentary oxygen demand, which may be larger than water column respiration rates in summer. Proxies for organic loading to sediments reveal that carbon losses continue after accumulation, and results from other studies indicate that sediment oxygen demand is directly related to surface water phytoplankton production, which has increased because of higher nutrient loading from the Mississippi River watershed. The potential size of the hypoxic zone for a given nitrogen load has increased as a result and has doubled from 1980 to 2000. The development of widespread hypoxia after the early 1980s and its consequences could, therefore, be considered a shift to an alternate ecosystem state. The Action Plan for Reducing, Mitigating, and Controlling Hypoxia in the Northern Gulf of Mexico goal of reducing the size of the hypoxic zone to an average of 5000 km2 by 2015 becomes more difficult to achieve for every year there is no significant reduction in nutrient loading. The decisions made to reduce the size of the hypoxic zone must incorporate these nonlinear responses and, we think, err on the side of caution in assuming that existing management efforts are sufficient to restore water quality on this shelf. The legacy of a higher sediment respiratory demand following eutrophication should apply to other coastal systems.