Improving the cotton simulation model, GOSSYM, for soil, photosynthesis, and transpiration processes.

GOSSYM, a mechanistic, process-level cotton crop simulation model, has a two-dimensional (2D) gridded soil model called Rhizos that simulates the below-ground processes daily. Water movement is based on gradients of water content and not hydraulic heads. In GOSSYM, photosynthesis is calculated using a daily empirical light response function that requires calibration for response to elevated carbon dioxide (CO2). This report discusses improvements made to the GOSSYM model for soil, photosynthesis, and transpiration processes. GOSSYM's predictions of below-ground processes using Rhizos are improved by replacing it with 2DSOIL, a mechanistic 2D finite element soil process model. The photosynthesis and transpiration model in GOSSYM is replaced with a Farquhar biochemical model and Ball-Berry leaf energy balance model. The newly developed model (modified GOSSYM) is evaluated using field-scale and experimental data from SPAR (soil-plant-atmosphere-research) chambers. Modified GOSSYM better predicted net photosynthesis (root mean square error (RMSE) 25.5 versus 45.2 g CO2 m-2 day-1; index of agreement (IA) 0.89 versus 0.76) and transpiration (RMSE 3.3 versus 13.7 L m-2 day-1; IA 0.92 versus 0.14) and improved the yield prediction by 6.0%. Modified GOSSYM improved the simulation of soil, photosynthesis, and transpiration processes, thereby improving the predictive ability of cotton crop growth and development.

Projected long-term climate trends reveal the critical role of vapor pressure deficit for soybean yields in the US Midwest.

Extreme climate events including heat waves and droughts are projected to become more frequent under future climate change conditions. However, the mechanisms between soybean yields and climate factors, specifically involving variable rainfall and high heat episodes, are still unclear, particularly with respect to spatial trends in the United States (US) Midwest. A recently modified version of the model GLYCIM was used to evaluate rainfed soybean production across 12 states at a 10 km spatial resolution for three time periods (2011-2020, 2051-2060, 2091-2099) under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios 4.5 and 8.5. Results showed that except for the northernmost Midwest counties, most of the current rainfed cropping system in the Midwest would suffer a 24.6-47.4 % yield loss without considering the CO2 fertility effect. Incorporating the effect of elevated CO2 showed a smaller yield loss of 11.6-29.5 %. The increased frequency of extreme degree days (EDD) or accumulation of hourly temperatures above 30 °C associated with increased vapor pressure deficit (VPD) played a key role in contributing to water deficits and resultant crop losses under these future climate conditions. Although a relatively weak relationship between summer rainfall and crop yield was observed, decreased rainfall caused VPD to increase which induced crop water deficits. These findings suggest that it is crucial to consider VPD along with high temperature and low rainfall trends simultaneously for development of potential management or breeding-based adaptative strategies for soybean.