Norovirus in children under 2 years of age: an epidemiological study in Panama during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Introduction: Norovirus infection is a common cause of acute gastroenteritis (AGE). Surveillance activities are important to aid investigation into effective norovirus control strategies, including vaccination. Here, we report ancillary findings related to the incidence, prevalence, and etiology of AGE caused by norovirus in Panama after adjustment of study methodology to comply with national coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) mandates. Methods: In January 2020, children aged <2 years began enrolling into an epidemiological study in Panama to estimate the burden of norovirus in preparation for evaluating upcoming prevention strategies. This included an observational, longitudinal, community-based AGE surveillance study and a hospital-based AGE surveillance study. For the longitudinal study, healthy children aged 5-18 months were enrolled from January 6 through March 23, 2020, with a follow-up of approximately 6 months. The last participant was contacted on September 23, 2020. For the hospital-based study, starting on January 21, 2020, children aged <2 years who were admitted to the Hospital del Niño Dr. José Renán Esquivel in Panama City due to AGE were evaluated. The last sample was collected on September 29, 2020. Collected stool samples were tested for norovirus as well as astrovirus, sapovirus, and various enteropathogens. Unfortunately, this study was disrupted by the subsequent implementation of disease transmission control procedures for the COVID-19 pandemic, and the study methodology was revised to comply with COVID-19 mandates. Results: In the longitudinal surveillance cohort [N = 400 (Chiriquí, n = 239; Panama, n = 161)], a total of 185 AGE episodes were documented (Chiriquí, n = 85; Panama, n = 100) resulting in an overall AGE incidence of 11.6 (95% CI: 9.99-13.4) episodes per 100 child-months. The norovirus-related AGE incidence was 0.3 (95% CI: 0.10-0.73) episodes per 100 child-months (5/185 AGE episodes) and the prevalence of norovirus was 4.6% (13/282 stool samples collected). In the hospital-based surveillance cohort, at least one pathogen was detected in 50% of samples (44/88 stool samples collected) and norovirus prevalence was 6.8% (6/88 stool samples collected). Discussion: This report demonstrates how the occurrence of the COVID-19 pandemic hindered the conduct of clinical trials. However, this also created unique research opportunities to investigate the potential impact of pandemic control measures on the etiology of infectious diarrheal disease.

The incidence of medically-attended norovirus gastro-enteritis in Japan: Modelling using a medical care insurance claims database.

BACKGROUND: The burden of medically-attended acute gastro-enteritis (MA-AGE) that can be attributed to norovirus is not well established in Japan. Using a nationwide database of medical care insurance claims, we estimated the incidence of medically-attended norovirus-attributable gastroenteritis (MA-NGE) in Japan. METHODS: The incidences of MA-NGE outpatient consultations or hospitalization in Japan were modelled on seasonal patterns of MA-AGE for unspecified causes derived from the Japan Medical Data Center (JMDC) database for the period July 2007 to June 2015. RESULTS: Mean age-adjusted annual incidence rates (per 10,000 person-years) of MA-NGE associated with outpatient care or hospitalization were 389 (95% CI 269-558) and 13 (95% CI 9-20), respectively. Highest rates were in children under 5 years of age: 1,569 (95% CI 1,325-1,792) for outpatient consultations and 48 (95% CI 39-56) for hospitalizations. Of all gastroenteritis episodes associated with outpatient care or hospitalization, 29% and 31% were attributed to norovirus, respectively. Norovirus was estimated to be responsible for 4,964,000 outpatient visits (95% CI 3,435,000-7,123,000) and 171,000 hospitalizations (95% CI 110,000-251,000) per year across Japan. CONCLUSIONS: Incidence rates of MA-AGE are high in Japan, and norovirus-attributable disease is at least as high as in some other developed countries.

Assessing the Impact of a Focused Deterrence Strategy to Combat Intimate Partner Domestic Violence.

The Offender Focused Domestic Violence Initiative (OFDVI) represents for the first time anywhere the application of the evidence-based focused deterrence policing approach to combat intimate partner domestic violence (IPDV). Through holding offenders accountable, the strategy has resulted in 20% reductions each in IPDV-related calls for police service and arrests. Victim injuries have been significantly reduced and the 1-year IPDV offender recidivism rate is about 16-17%. The backbone of the OFDVI strategy is the multidisciplinary collaboration of law enforcement and community partners which has resulted in identification and resolving system issues which have historically allowed offenders to repeat IPDV without consequence.

Modelling Estimates of Norovirus Disease in Patients with Chronic Medical Conditions.

BACKGROUND: The burden of disease due to norovirus infection has been well described in the general United States population, but studies of norovirus occurrence among persons with chronic medical conditions have been limited mostly to the immunocompromised. We assessed the impact of norovirus gastroenteritis on health care utilization in US subjects with a range of chronic medical conditions. METHODS: We performed a retrospective cohort study using MarketScan data from July 2002 to December 2013, comparing the rates of emergency department visits, outpatient visits and hospitalizations among patients with chronic conditions (renal, cardiovascular, respiratory, immunocompromising, gastrointestinal, hepatic/pancreatic and neurological conditions and diabetes) with those in a healthy population. We estimated the rates of these outcomes due to norovirus gastroenteritis using an indirect modelling approach whereby cases of gastroenteritis of unknown cause and not attributed to a range of other causes were assumed to be due to norovirus. RESULTS: Hospitalization rates for norovirus gastroenteritis were higher in all of the risk groups analyzed compared with data in otherwise healthy subjects, ranging from 3.2 per 10,000 person-years in persons with chronic respiratory conditions, to 23.1 per 10,000 person-years in persons with chronic renal conditions, compared to 2.1 per 10,000 among persons without chronic conditions. Over 51% of all norovirus hospitalizations occurred in the 37% of the population with some form of chronic medical condition. Outpatient visits for norovirus gastroenteritis were also increased in persons with chronic gastrointestinal or immunocompromising conditions. CONCLUSION: Norovirus gastroenteritis leads to significantly higher rates of healthcare utilization in patients with a chronic medical condition compared to patients without any such condition.

The incidence of childhood and adolescent seizures in the UK from 1999 to 2011: A retrospective cohort study using the Clinical Practice Research Datalink.

BACKGROUND: In postmarketing vaccine surveillance, adverse events observed in a vaccinated population are compared to the number expected based on a background incidence rate. The background rate should be accurate and obtained from a population comparable to the one vaccinated. Such rates are often not available. METHODS: The incidence rate of generalised convulsive, febrile and afebrile seizures was estimated in individuals born after 01-January-1998 and aged between 2 months and 15 years of age using the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink (1999-2011). RESULTS: The study population consisted of 1532,992 individuals (4917,369 person years (PY) of follow up). A total of 28,917 generalised convulsive seizure events were identified during follow-up, the overall incidence rate was 5.88 per 1000PY. Age specific rates increased sharply from 4/1000PY at 2 months of age, peaked at 19/1000PY at 16 months and decreased until approximately 6 years of age at which point they became relatively stable at 2/1000PY. 67% of GCSs were categorised as febrile: 56% using Read codes, 11% using free text. Febrile seizures accounted for the age trend in GCS, with rates peaking at 16.1/1000PY at 16 months of age while afebrile seizure rates remained relatively stable across all ages (24 seizures per 1000PY). Analysis by first occurrence of febrile seizure showed a similar pattern, comparable to published studies on the incidence of seizures in childhood. DISCUSSION: The rates reported in this study could be used in the postmarketing surveillance of infant vaccines. However, given the variation across strata, and the potential underascertainment of seizure events presenting to A&E, care must be taken when interpreting and using these rates.

Advantages and problems with pregnancy registries: observations and surprises throughout the life of the International Lamotrigine Pregnancy Registry.

PURPOSE: The International Lamotrigine Pregnancy Registry monitored for a signal of a substantial increase in the frequency of major congenital malformations associated with lamotrigine exposures in pregnancy over an 18-year period. Key methodological lessons are discussed. METHODS: The strengths and weaknesses of the Registry were assessed using quantifiable methodological and operational parameters including enrollment, completeness of exposure and outcome data reporting, and lost to follow-up. The choice of comparator groups and stopping rules for registry closure were critically evaluated. RESULTS: The reliance on voluntary reporting was associated with a clustered geographical distribution of registered pregnancies. The enrollment rate increased over time with new approvals and indications for lamotrigine and publication of interim data. Reporter burden was minimized through a streamlined data collection approach resulting in a high level of completeness of exposure and primary outcome data. Lost to follow-up rates were high (28.5% overall) representing a major limitation; incentives to increase the completeness of reporting failed to reduce rates. A lack of an internal comparator group complicated data interpretation; but external comparisons with multiple external groups allowed an assessment of consistency of outcome data across multiple data sources. A lack of a priori closure criteria prolonged the life of the Registry, and consideration of regulatory guidelines on this subject is encouraged at the time of conception of future registries. CONCLUSIONS: A successful pregnancy exposure registry requires ongoing flexibility and continuous re-assessment of enrollment, recruitment, and retention methods and the availability of comparison data, throughout its lifecycle.

Bridging differences in outcomes of pharmacoepidemiological studies: design and first results of the PROTECT project.

BACKGROUND: Observational pharmacoepidemiological (PE) studies on drug safety have produced discrepant results that may be due to differences in design, conduct and analysis. PURPOSE: The pharmacoepidemiology work-package (WP2) of the Pharmacoepidemiological Research on Outcomes of Therapeutics by a European ConsorTium (PROTECT) project aims at developing, testing and disseminating methodological standards for design, conduct and analysis of pharmacoepidemiological studies applicable to different safety issues using different databases across European countries. This article describes the selection of the safety issues and the description of the databases to be systematically studied. METHODS: Based on two consensus meetings and a literature search, we selected five drug-adverse event (AE) pairs to be evaluated in different databases. This selection was done according to pre-defined criteria such as regulatory and public health impact, and the potential to investigate a broad range of methodological issues. RESULTS: The selected drug-AE pairs are: 1) inhaled long-acting beta-2 agonists and acute myocardial infarction; 2) antimicrobials and acute liver injury; 3) antidepressants and/or benzodiazepines and hip fracture; 4) anticonvulsants and suicide/suicide attempts; and 5) calcium channel blockers and malignancies. Six European databases, that will be used to evaluate the drug-AE pairs retrospectively, are also described. CONCLUSION: The selected drug-AE pairs will be evaluated in PE studies using common protocols. Based on consistencies and discrepancies of these studies, a framework for guiding methodological choices will be developed. This will increase the usefulness and reliability of PE studies for benefit-risk assessment and decision-making.

Safety of MF59-adjuvanted A/H1N1 influenza vaccine in pregnancy: a comparative cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: The 2009-2010 A/H1N1 pandemic provided a unique setting to study the safety of MF59-adjuvanted vaccination in pregnancy. STUDY DESIGN: This was an observational cohort study of the safety of an MF59-adjuvanted A/H1N1 vaccine (Focetria) conducted among 4508 pregnant women (2295 vaccinated vs 2213 unvaccinated), with 3 month follow-up of neonates. RESULTS: No maternal deaths or abortions occurred among the vaccinated women. No differences between the vaccinated and unvaccinated cohorts were observed for gestational diabetes, preeclampsia, stillbirth, low birthweight, neonatal deaths, or congenital malformations. The risk of premature birth was significantly decreased among the vaccinated women (adjusted proportional hazard, 0.69; 95% confidence interval, 0.51-0.92). No differences were observed in rates of congenital malformations after vaccination in the first (2.1%), second (2.7%), or third (2.1%) trimesters. CONCLUSION: There was no evidence of a safety risk for MF59-adjuvanted A/H1N1 vaccination in pregnant women; protection was observed against premature birth.

Epilepsy, suicidality, and psychiatric disorders: a bidirectional association.

OBJECTIVE: A study was undertaken to determine whether psychiatric disorders associated with suicide are more common in incident epilepsy than in matched controls without epilepsy, before and after epilepsy diagnosis. METHODS: A matched, longitudinal cohort study was conducted in the UK General Practice Research Database. A total of 3,773 cases diagnosed with epilepsy between the ages of 10 and 60 years were compared to 14,025 controls matched by year of birth, sex, general practice, and years of medical records before the index date. We examined first diagnosis of psychosis, depression, anxiety, and suicidality in each of the 3 years before and after the index date and annual prevalence of suicide. Referent diagnoses were eczema and acute surgery. The incidence rate ratio (IRR) was calculated for each year in the study period; the prevalence ratio (PR) was calculated for suicidality. RESULTS: The IRR of psychosis, depression, and anxiety was significantly increased for all years before epilepsy diagnosis (IRR, 1.5-15.7) and after diagnosis (IRR, 2.2-10.9) and for suicidality before epilepsy diagnosis (IRR, 3.1-4.5) and 1 year after diagnosis (IRR, 5.3). The PR was increased for suicide attempt before epilepsy onset (PR, 2.6-5.2) and after onset (PR, 2.4-5.6). Eczema and acute surgery were both associated with epilepsy in the first and third year after diagnosis. INTERPRETATION: Epilepsy is associated with an increased onset of psychiatric disorders and suicide before and after epilepsy diagnosis. These relations suggest common underlying pathophysiological mechanisms that both lower seizure threshold and increase risk for psychiatric disorders and suicide.

Incidence of new-onset seizures in mild to moderate Alzheimer disease.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the incidence rate and predictors of seizures in patients with mild to moderate Alzheimer disease (AD). DESIGN: Cohort study of patients with mild to moderate AD in clinical trials. Risk factors for potential seizures were evaluated by stratified descriptive statistics and univariable and multivariable Cox proportional hazards regressions. SETTING: Pooled patient-level data from 10 Alzheimer Disease Cooperative Study clinical trials in mild to moderate AD from 1995 to 2010. PATIENTS: Three thousand seventy-eight subjects randomized to the treatment or placebo arms of 10 AD clinical trials. Screening Mini-Mental State Examination scores ranged between 10 and 28. RESULTS: Eighteen seizures were reported in 3078 randomized subjects, with an incidence rate of 484 per 100 000 person-years (95% CI, 287-764). Statistically significant independent risk factors for seizure were younger age (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.80; 95% CI, 0.69-0.93 per every 5 years of age), greater cognitive impairment at baseline (adjusted hazard ratio, 2.79; 95% CI, 1.06-7.33 for Mini-Mental State Examination scores <18 compared with Mini-Mental State Examination scores ≥18), and antipsychotic use at baseline (adjusted hazard ratio, 3.47; 95% CI, 1.33-9.08). CONCLUSIONS: Seizure rates in patients with mild to moderate AD in clinical trials are similar to rates observed in longer observational cohort studies, but they are greater than expected in the general elderly population. Younger age, greater degree of cognitive impairment, and history of antipsychotic use were independent risk factors for new-onset seizures in AD.

Comparing the General Practice Research Database and the UK Epilepsy and Pregnancy Register as tools for postmarketing teratogen surveillance: anticonvulsants and the risk of major congenital malformations.

BACKGROUND: Use of pregnancy registries is a common method of postmarketing surveillance of pregnancy outcomes to identify potential teratogens. However, with the increase in electronic capture of healthcare data for administrative, audit and research purposes, data generated during routine clinical practice might be used to address questions similar to those explored using pregnancy registries. OBJECTIVES: To establish how data from the UK General Practice Research Database (GPRD) compares with data from the UK Epilepsy and Pregnancy Register and to assess how it can contribute to postmarketing surveillance of pregnancy outcomes. METHODS: Pregnancy outcomes were identified from the GPRD for women aged 14-49 years with a diagnosis of epilepsy and supporting evidence. Outcomes with a major congenital malformation (MCM) were identified and the relative risks (RRs) of an MCM following a range of first-trimester antiepileptic drug (AED) exposures were calculated and compared with those reported by the UK Epilepsy and Pregnancy Register. In addition, we also evaluated whether the known association between valproate and spina bifida could be identified using data from the GPRD. The study period ran from 1 January 1990 until 31 December 2006. RESULTS: A total of 1766 live mother-baby pairs were identified, as well as 551 pregnancy terminations, 13 stillbirths and 1 neonatal death. Including those that resulted in a termination, there were 62 unique pregnancy outcomes with an MCM. An increased risk of spina bifida was identified using the GPRD following first-trimester monotherapy exposure to valproate when compared with those with no AED exposure (RR 8.02; 95% CI 1.5, 43.5). More generally, comparing the GPRD with the UK register, the GPRD ascertained a lower number of first-trimester AED exposures: monotherapy 711 versus 2468; polytherapy 156 versus 718. We reproduced the UK register results of an increased MCM risk following first-trimester polytherapy AED exposure compared with no AED exposure (RR 2.89; 95% CI 1.43, 5.84). Using the GPRD, we identified similar point estimates to the UK register following monotherapy and polytherapy exposures (4.1% vs 3.7% and 7.1% vs 6.0%, respectively) but we were unable to reproduce the level of statistical significance. For individual AEDs, the MCM rate following valproate exposure was 4.9% (11/225) in the GPRD compared with 6.2% (44/715) in the UK register. CONCLUSIONS: The GPRD has potential for the identification of malformations and of a teratogenic association. For epilepsy, the GPRD does, however, identify fewer exposed pregnancies than a pregnancy registry. Therefore, in many circumstances pregnancy registries are likely to remain preferable as a method of surveillance. The GPRD may be better suited to monitoring medicines used in the treatment of more prevalent conditions, such as depression, or for monitoring medicines that have been on the market for a long time and for which no registry has been set up.

Identifying major congenital malformations in the UK General Practice Research Database (GPRD): a study reporting on the sensitivity and added value of photocopied medical records and free text in the GPRD.

BACKGROUND: Postmarketing teratogen surveillance is essential and requires a data source that can reliably capture a wide range of congenital malformations. The UK General Practice Research Database (GPRD) may have the potential to be used for this kind of surveillance. OBJECTIVE: To assess the extent to which this database can be used to accurately identify major congenital malformations. METHODS: This study was carried out as part of a broader study to compare data on anticonvulsant use and safety in pregnancy between the GPRD and a pregnancy registry. The study period ran from 1 January 1990 until 31 December 2006. Mother-baby pairs where the mother had a record of epilepsy, seizure or convulsion were identified using the GPRD computerized medical records. Infants of mother-baby pairs who had a record of a major congenital malformation were identified. Full photocopied paper medical records were requested from the infant's general practitioner and where this was not possible any data entries consisting of uncoded comments, so-called 'free text', in the electronic GPRD record were requested from the database provider. This additional information was then reviewed in order to determine the extent to which the congenital malformation diagnoses identified via the computerized records could be confirmed or rejected and then classified as being major or minor. RESULTS: Within the study population of 3869 live mother-baby pairs, 188 potentially major congenital malformations were identified from the GPRD computerized record relating to 161 unique individuals. Using a combination of photocopied medical records and free text it was possible to verify 160 malformations (85.1%) as the malformation indicated by the computerized records; this ranged from 91.7% of those cases verified using photocopied medical records and 77.9% of cases verified using free text. Of the verified congenital malformations, using a combination of computerized data, photocopied medical records and free text, it was possible to classify 78.1% as being major and 15.0% as minor, and this percentage was found to be the same for those cases reviewed by photocopied records and those where free text was used. The proportions of malformations that could be verified and those that could be classified as major or minor were found to vary by malformation class. CONCLUSIONS: The GPRD can be used to ascertain a wide range of congenital malformations. In many cases, when a malformation is identified in the GPRD via the computerized medical records, the malformation is likely to exist. However, in this study a small proportion of identified cases had to be excluded because they had been coded incorrectly or diagnostically ruled out. Therefore, depending on the congenital malformation of interest, verification of such malformations using photocopied medical records or free text is generally recommended.

Background incidence of serum creatinine threshold rises in a predominantly female clinical trial population without underlying renal disease.

OBJECTIVE: Serum creatinine (Cr) is used to monitor renal function during pre-marketing clinical trials. Standard thresholds for a serum creatinine (Cr) increase predictive of renal injury remain to be established in this setting. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: Aggregated clinical trial data were utilized to evaluate the background frequency of Cr increases of ≥ 0.3 mg/dl and ≥ 0.5 mg/dl from baseline. RESULTS: Ten thousand and eighteen subjects who participated in 15 clinical trials were included: 311 (4%) male, 7521 (96%) female, mean age of 48.1 years. Mean follow-up time was 6 months. The incidence of Cr increase ≥ 0.3 mg/dl from baseline was 7.5 per 1000 person-months (95%CI 6.81-8.24) and 1.2 per 1000 person-months (95%CI 0.94-1.52) for ≥ 0.5 mg/dl. The Cr increase was sustained at the following visit in 15.9% of subjects with a Cr increase of 0.3 mg/dl, and in 8.9% of those with a 0.5 mg/dl increase from baseline. CONCLUSION: A sustained increase in Cr of 0.5 mg/dl from baseline as a stopping criteria for potential nephrotoxicity would have resulted in study drug cessation in approximately 1 in 1000 participants in this selected clinical trial population and would not have caused undue clinical trial attrition.

Exploring differential prescribing between anti-epileptic drugs in epilepsy patients with a history of mood disorders.

PURPOSE: To explore differential prescribing of anti-epileptic drugs (AEDs) to patients with epilepsy by history of mood disorder. METHODS: Epilepsy was defined as at least one diagnosis code and one AED prescription, and all patients must have been on the database 182 days before and after their first AED prescription. The Integrated HealthCare Information Services (IHCIS) insurance claims database included 44 557 patients with epilepsy between January 1997 and March 2007. The General Practice Research Database (GPRD) included 16 904 patients with epilepsy up to March 2007. Patients were categorized by their first use of specified AEDs. Mood disorders were defined as diagnosis codes for depression and bipolar disorder, or anti-depressant use. The unadjusted odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals for a history of mood disorder diagnosis ever or within the three months prior to AED use were calculated with carbamazepine and oxcarbazepine (CBZ) as the referent. RESULTS: In the US IHCIS, a history of mood disorders was significantly more common in new users of most AEDs compared to CBZ new users, indicating differential prescribing. Clonazepam and gabapentin were the most commonly prescribed AEDs in patients with epilepsy and a history of mood disorders.In the UK GPRD, there was less evidence of differential prescribing of AEDs, although gabapentin was prescribed most often to epilepsy patients with a history of mood disorders. CONCLUSIONS: Any observational studies of AEDs and suicidality would have to consider potential channeling bias by history of mood disorders, which is a major risk factor for suicide.

Predictors of placebo response in pooled lamotrigine neuropathic pain clinical trials.

OBJECTIVES: One limitation of neuropathic pain clinical trials is the often large and variable extent of response in the placebo group, possibly obscuring true medication effects. We pooled data from 252 individuals in the placebo arms of 3 clinical trials of lamotrigine in patients with neuropathic pain to examine the relationship of baseline patient and study site characteristics with 12-week change in the Pain Intensity Numerical Rating Scale score (DeltaPI-NRS). The 574 patients in the pooled lamotrigine treatment arms were used as a replication dataset. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We performed univariable and multivariable regression analysis of predictors of DeltaPI-NRS. Clinical factors examined were baseline pain intensity score (mean daily PI-NRS over the week prior to randomization), age, sex, diagnosis, prior and concurrent gabapentin use, prior and concurrent tricyclic antidepressant use, pain duration, variability of daily pain scores during the baseline week, and slope of daily pain scores over the baseline week. Site factors evaluated were study site, US geographic region, recruitment rate, and recruitment period. RESULTS: Baseline PI-NRS and site recruitment rate were independent predictors of the 12-week DeltaPI-NRS in the last observation carried forward, observed case, and repeated measures analyses. Patients with higher baseline PI-NRS scores had a significantly greater 12-week reduction in pain intensity than patients with lower baseline scores. Patients within sites with a faster recruitment rate also had a significantly greater reduction of pain intensity than those in sites with slower recruitment. DISCUSSION: These results suggest that both patient and study site characteristics can influence the response in the placebo arms of neuropathic pain studies.

Magnetic resonance in systems with equivalent spin-1/2 nuclides. Part 3: Ket analysis and spectral intensities.

In earlier papers (Parts 1 and 2), featuring group-theoretical analysis, it was shown that the isotropic EPR spectra of free radical (S=1/2) species XL(n), where the n equivalent nuclei also have spin 1/2, have a more complicated form than disclosed by the usual (first-order) oversimplified analysis. Explicit solutions for n=3 (analytic, as well as computational) of the spin-hamiltonian matrix H(s) for the energies and spin states were obtained and given in Part 2, but are amplified herein, and differences in several important representations of H(s) are discussed. In the present work, we focus also on details of relative spectral intensities, some of which are not straightforward. Subtle asymmetry effects in relevant EPR spectra are demonstrated. The crucial factor here turns out to reside in the difference between field-swept and frequency-swept spectra, and hinges on the fact that H(s) for the two states involved in any transition depends on Zeeman-field B as a variable in field-swept spectra, but B is a constant in frequency-swept spectra. An experimental spectrum of the free radical CF(3) is used as a quantitative example.

Predictors of placebo group decline in the Alzheimer's disease Assessment Scale-cognitive subscale (ADAS-Cog) in 24 week clinical trials of Alzheimer's disease.

One limitation of several recent 24 week Alzheimer's disease (AD) clinical trials was the lack of cognitive decline detected by the AD Assessment Scale-cognitive subscale (ADAS-cog) in the placebo groups, possibly obscuring true medication effects. Data from 733 individuals in the placebo arms of six AD clinical trials performed 1996-1997 were pooled to examine the relationship of clinical, demographic, and genetic characteristics with the 24 week change in ADAS-cog. Baseline cognitive and functional status and the screening-to-baseline change in ADAS-cog were the strongest independent predictors of the 24 week change in ADAS-cog. The ADAS-cog did not detect progression in patients with mild dementia (screening Mini-Mental State Exam, MMSE, >or=20). The change in ADAS-cog from screening to baseline was inversely correlated with the 24 week change score; it was more difficult to detect cognitive decline at 24 weeks if individuals markedly worsened from screening to baseline. The effects of baseline MMSE and screening-to-baseline change in ADAS-cog generalized to the placebo group (N=106) of another AD study performed in 2004-2005. Overcoming lack of placebo decline in AD clinical trials will require scales more sensitive to cognitive decline in mild AD and strategies to reduce within-person variability in outcome measures.