Genetic history of Cambridgeshire before and after the Black Death.

The extent of the devastation of the Black Death pandemic (1346-1353) on European populations is known from documentary sources and its bacterial source illuminated by studies of ancient pathogen DNA. What has remained less understood is the effect of the pandemic on human mobility and genetic diversity at the local scale. Here, we report 275 ancient genomes, including 109 with coverage >0.1×, from later medieval and postmedieval Cambridgeshire of individuals buried before and after the Black Death. Consistent with the function of the institutions, we found a lack of close relatives among the friars and the inmates of the hospital in contrast to their abundance in general urban and rural parish communities. While we detect long-term shifts in local genetic ancestry in Cambridgeshire, we find no evidence of major changes in genetic ancestry nor higher differentiation of immune loci between cohorts living before and after the Black Death.

A general and efficient representation of ancestral recombination graphs.

As a result of recombination, adjacent nucleotides can have different paths of genetic inheritance and therefore the genealogical trees for a sample of DNA sequences vary along the genome. The structure capturing the details of these intricately interwoven paths of inheritance is referred to as an ancestral recombination graph (ARG). New developments have made it possible to infer ARGs at scale, enabling many new applications in population and statistical genetics. This rapid progress, however, has led to a substantial gap opening between theory and practice. Standard mathematical formalisms, based on exhaustively detailing the "events" that occur in the history of a sample, are insufficient to describe the outputs of current methods. Moreover, we argue that the underlying assumption that all events can be known and precisely estimated is fundamentally unsuited to the realities of modern, population-scale datasets. We propose an alternative mathematical formulation that encompasses the outputs of recent methods and can capture the full richness of modern large-scale datasets. By defining this ARG encoding in terms of specific genomes and their intervals of genetic inheritance, we avoid the need to exhaustively list (and estimate) all events. The effects of multiple events can be aggregated in different ways, providing a natural way to express many forms of approximate and partial knowledge about the recombinant ancestry of a sample.

Efficient ancestry and mutation simulation with msprime 1.0.

Stochastic simulation is a key tool in population genetics, since the models involved are often analytically intractable and simulation is usually the only way of obtaining ground-truth data to evaluate inferences. Because of this, a large number of specialized simulation programs have been developed, each filling a particular niche, but with largely overlapping functionality and a substantial duplication of effort. Here, we introduce msprime version 1.0, which efficiently implements ancestry and mutation simulations based on the succinct tree sequence data structure and the tskit library. We summarize msprime's many features, and show that its performance is excellent, often many times faster and more memory efficient than specialized alternatives. These high-performance features have been thoroughly tested and validated, and built using a collaborative, open source development model, which reduces duplication of effort and promotes software quality via community engagement.

Publisher Correction: Inferring whole-genome histories in large population datasets.

An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper.

Inferring whole-genome histories in large population datasets.

Inferring the full genealogical history of a set of DNA sequences is a core problem in evolutionary biology, because this history encodes information about the events and forces that have influenced a species. However, current methods are limited, and the most accurate techniques are able to process no more than a hundred samples. As datasets that consist of millions of genomes are now being collected, there is a need for scalable and efficient inference methods to fully utilize these resources. Here we introduce an algorithm that is able to not only infer whole-genome histories with comparable accuracy to the state-of-the-art but also process four orders of magnitude more sequences. The approach also provides an 'evolutionary encoding' of the data, enabling efficient calculation of relevant statistics. We apply the method to human data from the 1000 Genomes Project, Simons Genome Diversity Project and UK Biobank, showing that the inferred genealogies are rich in biological signal and efficient to process.