Direct and indirect effects and feedbacks of biomass burning aerosols over Mainland Southeast Asia and South China in springtime.

Southeast Asia is one of the largest biomass burning (BB) source regions in the world. In order to promote our understanding of BB aerosol characteristics and environmental impacts, this study investigated the emission, composition, evolution, radiative effects, and feedbacks of BB aerosols from Mainland Southeast Asia during 15 March to 15 April 2019 by using an online-coupled regional chemistry/aerosol-climate model RIEMS-Chem. Model results are compared against a variety of ground and vertical observations, indicating a generally good model performance for meteorology, aerosol chemical compositions, and aerosol optical properties. It is found that BB aerosols contributed significantly to regional particulate matter (PM), accounting for up to 90 % of the near-surface PM2.5, BC, and OC concentrations over the BB source regions of north Mainland Southeast Asia and for approximately 30-70 % over wide downwind areas including most areas of southwest China and portions of south China. At the top of atmosphere (TOA), BB aerosols exerted a positive all-sky radiative effect (DREBB) up to 25 W/m2 over north Vietnam and south China, a negative DREBB up to -10 W/m2 over Myanmar, western Thailand, and southwest China. Meanwhile, the indirect radiative effect (IREBB) was consistently negative, with the maximum of -10 W/m2 over downwind areas with cloud coverage, e.g., from north Vietnam to most of south China. The subregional (95-125°E and 10-30°N) and period mean DREBB and IREBB at TOA were estimated to be 0.69 W/m2 and - 0.63 W/m2, respectively, leading a total radiative effect (TREBB) of 0.06 W/m2 at TOA. The radiative effects of BB aerosols led to decreases in sensible and latent heat fluxes, near-surface temperature, PBL height, and wind speed of 6.0 Wm-2, 9.0 Wm-2, 0.26 °C, 38.7 m, and 0.1 m/s, respectively, accompanied with an increase in RH of 1.9 %, averaged over the subregion and the study period. The accumulated precipitation during the study period was apparently reduced by BB aerosols from east Thailand to south China, with the maximum reduction up to 14 cm (exceeding 40 %) over north Vietnam and south China. TREBB tended to increase mean near-surface PM2.5 and its component concentrations, with the maximum percentage increase up to 24 % over the BB source regions of north Mainland Southeast Asia, resulting from the combined effects of dynamic and chemical feedbacks. DREBB generally dominated over IREBB in the feedback-induced PM2.5 concentration changes.

Future precipitation changes over China under 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C global warming targets by using CORDEX regional climate models.

This study aims to characterize future changes in precipitation extremes over China based on regional climate models (RCMs) participating in the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX)-East Asia project. The results of five RCMs involved in CORDEX-East Asia project that driven by HadGEM2-AO are compared with the simulation of CMA-RegCM driven by BCC-CSM1.1. Eleven precipitation extreme indices that developed by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices are employed to evaluate precipitation extreme changes over China. Generally, RCMs can reproduce their spatiotemporal characteristics over China in comparison with observations. For future climate projections, RCMs indicate that both the occurrence and intensity of precipitation extremes in most regions of China will increase when the global temperature increases by 1.5/2.0 °C. The yearly maximum five-day precipitation (RX5D) averaged over China is reported to increase by 4.4% via the CMA-RegCM under the 1.5 °C warming in comparison with the baseline period (1986-2005); however, a relatively large increase of 11.1% is reported by the multi-model ensemble median (MME) when using the other five models. Furthermore, the reoccurring risks of precipitation extremes over most regions of China will further increase due to the additional 0.5 °C warming. For example, RX5D will further increase by approximately 8.9% over NWC, 3.8% over NC, 2.3% over SC, and approximately 1.0% over China. Extremes, such as the historical 20-year return period event of yearly maximum one-day precipitation (RX1D) and RX5D, will become more frequent, with occurrences happening once every 8.8 years (RX1D) and 11.5 years (RX5D) under the 1.5 °C warming target, and there will be two fewer years due to the additional 0.5 °C warming. In addition, the intensity of these events will increase by approximately 9.2% (8.5%) under the 1.5 °C warming target and 12.6% (11.0%) under the 2.0 °C warming target for RX1D (RX5D).