RÉSUMÉ
OBJECTIVE: To explore the application value of the prediction model for delivery outcome of women with scarred uterus based on ultrasonic parameters. METHODS: In this retrospective study, a total of 100 pregnant women with scarred uterus who delivered in Cangzhou Hospital of Integrated Traditional Chinese Medicine and Western Medicine were selected as the research subjects. Adverse pregnancy outcomes included premature delivery, low birth weight, neonatal asphyxia, postpartum hemorrhage, and uterine rupture. In line with delivery outcome, the pregnant women were segmented into good outcome group (n = 78) and poor outcome group (n = 22). We collected and compared the clinical data and the ultrasonic parameters of pregnant women of the two groups. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was conducted to explore the risk factors affecting the delivery outcome of women with scarred uterus and to establish a prediction model. RESULTS: Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that low hemoglobin (Hb) before delivery, high grade of uterine scar, low muscle thickness of lower uterine segment, and low blood flow index were the risk factors for poor delivery outcome of women with scarred uterus. According to the risk factors, the prediction model was obtained: Prob = 1/[1 + e^ (-5.110-2.568 * Pre-delivery Hb - 1.697 * uterine scar grade -2.895 * lower uterine muscle thickness + 19.584 * blood flow index)]. The sensitivity, specificity and area under the curve were 90.0, 91.0 and 0.959, respectively. After validation, the sensitivity and specificity were 85.71 and 87.04, respectively. CONCLUSION: Low Hb before delivery, low grade of uterine scar, low musculature thickness of lower uterine segment, and low blood flow index were the risk factors for poor delivery outcome of women with scarred uterus. The establishment of prediction model based on risk factors could effectively evaluate the risk of poor delivery outcome of women with scarred uterus.
