Biopsychosocial factors of quality of life among middle-aged adults living alone in South Korea: a secondary data analysis using the 2017 Korea Community Health Survey.

BACKGROUND: This study aimed to investigate quality of life (QoL) in middle-aged adults living alone and identify comprehensive biological, psychological, interpersonal, and contextual factors related to QoL using the dynamic biopsychosocial model. As a secondary analysis, this study used data from the 2017 Korea Community Health Survey conducted by the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency. METHODS: Among the total 228,381 respondents, 10,639 middle-aged individuals aged 40-64 years from single-person households (5,036 men and 5,603 women) were included in the analysis. QoL was measured using the EuroQoL-5 Dimension (EQ-5D). The EQ-5D descriptive statistics were provided according to biological, psychological, interpersonal, and contextual factors. Considering the data structure of the multistage stratified cluster sampling method, a complex samples general linear model statistic was used to identify the predictors of QoL. RESULTS: QoL was lower in those who had undesirable psychological status (e.g., more depressive symptoms, poor subjective health, and higher perceived stress), less engagement in social networking (less frequent contact with friends and less frequent participation in social activities such as religious activities, friendship gathering, and leisure), and lower physical, behavioral, and socioeconomic factors. CONCLUSIONS: This study's findings indicate that psychological and interpersonal factors should be addressed and prioritized to improve the QoL of middle-aged adults living alone. By providing many opportunities for easily accessible social activities that meet the needs and interests of this demographic, their QoL can be improved through strengthening social support.

Integrating socio-psychological factors in the SEIR model optimized by a genetic algorithm for COVID-19 trend analysis.

The global spread of COVID-19 has profoundly affected health and economies, highlighting the need for precise epidemic trend predictions for effective interventions. In this study, we used infectious disease models to simulate and predict the trajectory of COVID-19. An SEIR (susceptible, exposed, infected, removed) model was established using Wuhan data to reflect the pandemic. We then trained a genetic algorithm-based SEIR (GA-SEIR) model using data from a specific U.S. region and focused on individual susceptibility and infection dynamics. By integrating socio-psychological factors, we achieved a significant enhancement to the GA-SEIR model, leading to the development of an optimized version. This refined GA-SEIR model significantly improved our ability to simulate the spread and control of the epidemic and to effectively track trends. Remarkably, it successfully predicted the resurgence of COVID-19 in mainland China in April 2023, demonstrating its robustness and reliability. The refined GA-SEIR model provides crucial insights for public health authorities, enabling them to design and implement proactive strategies for outbreak containment and mitigation. Its substantial contributions to epidemic modelling and public health planning are invaluable, particularly in managing and controlling respiratory infectious diseases such as COVID-19.

Effective intervention of brucellosis prevention in developing countries: A dynamic modelling study.

Objective: Brucellosis has a considerable impact on human health and the economy in developing countries. In China, the biggest developing country, brucellosis shifted spread of the epidemic from northern to southern regions. Understanding the transmission characteristic of brucellosis on Hunan province, located in central China, is of great significance for successful control. Methods: We developed a multi-population and multi-route dynamic model (MPMRDM), which is an animal-human-environment coupled model. The model is an extension of the SEIR model, taking into account direct transmission and indirect transmission. We used the model to explore the spread of brucellosis and evaluate the effectiveness of various intervention strategies. Results: The animal-to-animal transmission rate was the highest at 5.14 × 10-8, while the environment-to-person transmission rate was the lowest at 9.49 × 10-12. The mean R0 was 1.51. The most effective intervention was taking personal protection, followed by shortening the infection period. Shortening the infection period combined with personal protection is the most effective two-combined intervention strategy. After any comprehensive intervention strategy was implemented, TAR dropped by 90% or more. Conclusion: The results demonstrate that animal transmission route is essential for controlling human brucellosis. Strengthening personal protection, early detection, and early treatment can effectively control the trend of brucellosis. These results can provide an important reference for optimizing brucellosis intervention plans.

Assessing population-level target product profiles of universal human influenza A vaccines.

Influenza A has two hemagglutinin groups, with stronger cross-immunity to reinfection within than between groups. Here, we explore the implications of this heterogeneity for proposed cross-protective influenza vaccines that may offer broad, but not universal, protection. While the development goal for the breadth of human influenza A vaccine is to provide cross-group protection, vaccines in current development stages may provide better protection against target groups than non-target groups. To evaluate vaccine formulation and strategies, we propose a novel perspective: a vaccine population-level target product profile (PTPP). Under this perspective, we use dynamical models to quantify the epidemiological impacts of future influenza A vaccines as a function of their properties. Our results show that the interplay of natural and vaccine-induced immunity could strongly affect seasonal subtype dynamics. A broadly protective bivalent vaccine could lower the incidence of both groups and achieve elimination with sufficient vaccination coverage. However, a univalent vaccine at low vaccination rates could permit a resurgence of the non-target group when the vaccine provides weaker immunity than natural infection. Moreover, as a proxy for pandemic simulation, we analyze the invasion of a variant that evades natural immunity. We find that a future vaccine providing sufficiently broad and long-lived cross-group protection at a sufficiently high vaccination rate, could prevent pandemic emergence and lower the pandemic burden. This study highlights that as well as effectiveness, breadth and duration should be considered in epidemiologically informed TPPs for future human influenza A vaccines.

Bioremediation experiments and dynamic model of petroleum hydrocarbon contaminated soil.

Clarifying the occurrence and morphological characteristics of petroleum hydrocarbons (PHs) in soil can facilitate a comprehensive understanding of their migration and transformation patterns in soil/sediment. Additionally, by establishing the dynamic transformation process of each occurrence state, the ecological impact and environmental risk associated with PHs in soil/sediment can be assessed more precisely. The adsorption experiments and closed static incubation experiments was carried out to explore the PHs degradation and fraction distribution in aged contaminated soil under two remediation scenarios of natural attenuation (NA) and bioaugmentation (BA) by exogenous bacteria through a new sequential extraction method based on Tenax-TA, Hydroxypropyl-ß-cyclodextrin and Rhamnolipid (HPCD/RL), accelerated solvent extractor (ASE) unit and alkaline hydrolysis extraction. The adsorption experiment results illustrated that bioaugmentation could promote the desorption of PHs in the adsorption phase, and the soil-water partition coefficient Kd decreased from 0.153 L/g to 0.092 L/g. The incubation experiment results showed that compared with natural attenuation, bioaugmentation could improve the utilization of PHs in aged soil and promote the generation of non-extractable hydrocarbons. On the 90th day of the experiment, the concentrations of weakly adsorbed hydrocarbons in the natural attenuation and bioaugmentation experimental groups decreased by 46.44% and 87.07%, respectively, while the concentrations of strongly adsorbed hydrocarbons and non-extractable hydrocarbons increased by 77.93%, 182.14%, and 80.91%, and 501.19%, respectively, compared their initial values. We developed a novel dynamic model and inverted the kinetic parameters of the model by the parameter scanning function and the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method based on the Bayesian approach in COMSOL Multiphysics® finite element software combined with experimental data. There was a good linear relationship between experimental interpolation data and model prediction data. The R2 for the concentrations of weakly adsorbed hydrocarbons ranged from 0.9953 to 0.9974, for strongly adsorbed hydrocarbons from 0.9063 to 0.9756, and for non-extractable hydrocarbons from 0.9931 to 0.9982. These extremely high correlation coefficients demonstrate the high accuracy of the parameters calculated using the Bayesian inversion method.

Cost-Effectiveness of Adjuvanted Quadrivalent Influenza Vaccine for Adults over 65 in France.

BACKGROUND: In France, influenza accounts for an average of over one million consultations with GPs, 20,000 hospitalizations, and 9000 deaths per year, particularly among the over-65s. This study evaluates the cost-effectiveness of the adjuvanted quadrivalent influenza vaccine (aQIV) compared to standard (SD-QIV) and high-dose (HD-QIV) quadrivalent influenza vaccines for individuals aged 65 and older in France. METHODS: The age-structured SEIR transmission model, calibrated to simulate a mean influenza season, incorporates a contact matrix to estimate intergroup contact rates. Epidemiological, economic, and utility outcomes are evaluated. Vaccine effectiveness and costs are derived from literature and national insurance data. Quality of life adjustments for influenza attack rates and hospitalizations are applied. Deterministic and probabilistic analyses are also conducted. RESULTS: Compared to SD-QIV, aQIV demonstrates substantial reductions in healthcare utilization and mortality, avoiding 89,485 GP consultations, 2144 hospitalizations, and preventing 1611 deaths. Despite an investment of EUR 110 million, aQIV yields a net saving of EUR 14 million in healthcare spending. Compared to HD-QIV, aQIV saves 62 million euros on vaccination costs. Cost-effectiveness analysis reveals an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of EUR 7062 per QALY. CONCLUSIONS: This study highlights the cost-effectiveness of aQIV versus SD-QIV and HD-QIV, preventing influenza cases, hospitalizations, and deaths.

In vitro simulated study of macronutrient digestion in complex food using digestive enzyme supplement.

Digestive enzymes secreted by the body are vital for digestion and nutrient absorption. Enzyme supplements are commonly used to support them in achieving optimal digestion. Herein, the efficacy of digestive enzyme supplement (DigeSEB Super) in digestion of complex food was assessed using INFOGEST simulated static and modified semi-dynamic in vitro digestion models. Digestive enzyme supplement was found to assist the endogenous digestive enzymes to disintegrate the food matrix. Hence, it reduced the viscosity of the gastric digesta by 2.75 fold (p = 0.04) compared to the control digestion (only endogenous digestive enzymes) during the first hour of digestion. Similarly, enzyme supplement showed statistically higher release of reducing sugars in the gastric digestion (p ≤ 0.05) indicating improved digestion of carbohydrates. Further, digestion of proteins and fats was also improved in the presence of enzyme supplement. The kinetic aspects of the semi-dynamic model (transient nature of gastric secretions and gradual acidification) was found to alter the macronutrient digestion compared to the static digestion. Thus, semi-dynamic model should be preferred for the in vitro studies. Overall, current study demonstrated the potential of a digestive enzyme supplement to improve digestion by aiding digestive action of the endogenous enzymes.

A dynamic one-dimensional model for simulating unsteady air-water stratified flow in sewer pipes.

Ventilation is paramount in sanitary and stormwater sewer systems to mitigate odor problems and avert pressure surges. Existing numerical models have constraints in practical applications in actual sewer systems due to insufficient airflow modeling or suitability only for steady-state conditions. This research endeavors to formulate a mathematical model capable of accurately simulating various operational conditions of sewer systems under the natural ventilation condition. The dynamic water flow is modeled using a shock-capturing MacCormack scheme. The dynamic airflow model amalgamates energy and momentum equations, circumventing laborious pressure iteration computations. This model utilizes friction coefficients at interfaces to enhance the description of the momentum exchange in the airflow and provide a logical explanation for air pressure. A systematic analysis indicates that this model can be easily adapted to include complex boundary conditions, facilitating its use for modeling airflow in real sewer networks. Furthermore, this research uncovers a direct correlation between the air-to-water flow rate ratio and the filling ratio under natural ventilation conditions, and an empirical formula encapsulating this relationship is derived. This finding offers insights for practical engineering applications.

Perspectives on the adaptation of Japanese plum-type cultivars to reduced winter chilling in two regions of Spain.

Japanese plum, like other temperate fruit tree species, has cultivar-specific temperature requirements during dormancy for proper flowering. Knowing the temperature requirements of this species is of increasing interest due to the great genetic variability that exists among the available Japanese plum-type cultivars, since most of them are interspecific hybrids. The reduction of winter chilling caused by climate change is threatening their cultivation in many regions. In this work, the adaptation perspectives of 21 Japanese plum-type cultivars were analyzed in two of the main plum-growing regions in Spain, Badajoz and Zaragoza, to future climate conditions. Endodormancy release for subsequent estimation of chilling and heat requirements was determined through empirical experiments conducted during dormancy at least over two years. Chill requirements were calculated using three models [chilling hours (CH), chilling units (CU) and chilling portions (CP)] and heat requirements using growing degree hours (GDH). Chilling requirements ranged 277-851 CH, 412-1,030 CU and 26-51 CP, and heat requirements ranged from 4,343 to 9,525 GDH. The potential adaption of the cultivars to future warmer conditions in both regions was assessed using climate projections under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP), RCP4.5 (effective reduction of greenhouse gas emissions) and RCP8.5 (continuous increase in greenhouse gas emissions), in two time horizons, from the middle to the end of 21st century, with temperature projections from 15 Global Climate Models. The probability of satisfying the estimated cultivar-specific chilling requirements in Badajoz was lower than in Zaragoza, because of the lower chill availability predicted. In this region, the cultivars analyzed herein may have limited cultivation because the predicted reduction in winter chill may result in the chilling requirements not being successfully fulfilled.

The Influence of Nonlinear High-Intensity Dynamic Processes on the Standing Wave Precession of a Non-Ideal Hemispherical Resonator.

The properties of small size, low noise, high performance and no wear-out have made the hemispherical resonator gyroscope a good choice for high-value space missions. To enhance the precision of the hemispherical resonator gyroscope for use in tasks with large angular velocities and angular accelerations, this paper investigates the standing wave precession of a non-ideal hemispherical resonator under nonlinear high-intensity dynamic conditions. Based on the thin shell theory of elasticity, a dynamic model of a hemispherical resonator is established by using Lagrange's second kind equation. Then, the dynamic model is equivalently transformed into a simple harmonic vibration model of a point mass in two-dimensional space, which is analyzed using a method of averaging that separates the slow variables from the fast variables. The results reveal that taking the nonlinear terms about the square of the angular velocity and the angular acceleration in the dynamic equation into account can weaken the influence of the 4th harmonic component of a mass defect on standing wave drift, and the extent of this weakening effect varies with the dimensions of the mass defects, which is very important for steering the development of the high-precision hemispherical resonator gyroscope.

Overcoming Dormancy in Prunus Species under Conditions of Insufficient Winter Chilling in Israel.

The phenomenon of dormancy and the evolutionary causes for its development are presented together with the effects of the climatic factors: temperature and light. Shade and darkness have been found to enhance bud breaking in peach. The effects of various temperatures on chilling accumulation, chilling negation and chilling enhancement are described. The way these are computed in the face of global warming is explained, using the dynamic model. When natural chilling is less than that required, there are ways of compensation, up to a certain level. Various horticultural, physical and chemical means to achieve this are described, including bending branches, reducing vegetative vigor, shading the orchard, sprinkling to reduce daytime temperature and the application of various chemicals to break dormancy. When winter chilling is markedly reduced and temperatures increase considerably, the use of dormancy avoidance is suggested in frost-free places. This technique can induce a new growing cycle by avoiding dormancy altogether. However, the best approach is to breed high-quality cultivars requiring much less chilling. Another aspect discussed in this work, independent of the chilling requirement, is the negative effect of heat spells in winter and spring on the abnormal development of flower buds, leading to a low level of the stone fruit set and a reduced yield.

[Life Cycle Carbon Reduction Benefits of Electric Heavy-duty Truck to Replace Diesel Heavy-duty Truck].

To accurately predict the life-cycle carbon reduction benefits of replacing a diesel heavy-duty truck with an electric one, taking a single heavy-duty truck as the object, the variation trend in electric and diesel carbon emission factors from 2023 to 2050 were predicted; coupled with the life spans and life-cycle mileage of the two types of heavy-duty trucks, a dynamic carbon emission model for the heavy-duty trucks was constructed in stages. The carbon footprints of the trucks under the "Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario (NZE)", "Announced Pledges Scenario (APS)", and "Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS)" were analyzed. In addition, the carbon reduction and carbon reduction rate were calculated. The results showed that battery manufacturing and battery recycling were the main factors to impair the improvement of carbon reduction in the production and recycling stages of electric heavy-duty trucks, respectively. For every 1 g·(kW·h)-1 reduction in the electricity carbon emission factor (CO2), an electric heavy-duty truck could reduce 1.74 t of carbon emissions over its life cycle. Under the three scenarios, the carbon emissions during the operation stage of both types of heavy trucks accounted for more than 90% of the total life-cycle carbon emissions. Carbon reduction benefits from the highest to the lowest were NZE, APS, and STEPS, and their corresponding life-cycle carbon emission reductions were 1054.68, 1021.78, and 1007.97 t, with carbon reduction rates of 54.38%, 52.68%, and 51.97%, respectively.

Torsional Vibration Analysis Using Rotational Laser Vibrometers.

Torsional vibration is a critical phenomenon in rotor dynamics. It consists of an oscillating movement of the shaft and causes failures in multiple oscillating fields of application. This type of vibration is more difficult to measure than lateral vibration. Torsional vibrometers are generally invasive and require a complicated setup, as well as being inconvenient for field measurements. One of the most reliable, non-invasive, and transportable measuring techniques involves the laser torsional vibrometer. For this research, two laser heads with different measurement capabilities were utilized. An experimental test rig was used to perform a relative calibration of the two laser vibrometers. The frequency of the acting force and the rotation speed of the shaft vary in the same range, which is commonly found in rotating machines. Finally, experimental measurements of torsional vibrations using laser vibrometers were compared with numerical results from a 1D finite element model of the same test rig. The main outcome of this paper is the definition of a reliable measuring procedure to exploit two laser vibrometers for detecting torsional mode-shapes and natural frequencies on real machines. The relative calibration of two different measuring heads is described in detail, and the procedure was fundamental to properly correlate measuring signals in two machine sections. A good correspondence between the numerical and experimental results was found.

Estimation of Protein and Amino Acid Requirements in Layer Chicks Depending on Dynamic Model.

Four trials were conducted to establish a protein and amino acid requirement model for layer chicks over 0-6 weeks by using the analytical factorization method. In trial 1, a total of 90 one-day-old Jing Tint 6 chicks with similar body weight were selected to determine the growth curve, carcass and feather protein deposition, and amino acid patterns of carcass and feather proteins. In trials 2 and 3, 24 seven-day-old and 24 thirty-five-day-old Jing Tint 6 chicks were selected to determine the protein maintenance requirements, amino acid pattern, and net protein utilization rate. In trial 4, 24 ten-day-old and 24 thirty-eight-day-old Jing Tint 6 chicks were selected to determine the standard terminal ileal digestibility of amino acids. The chicks were fed either a corn-soybean basal diet, a low nitrogen diet, or a nitrogen-free diet throughout the different trials. The Gompertz equation showed that there is a functional relationship between body weight and age, described as BWt(g) = 2669.317 × exp(-4.337 × exp(-0.019t)). Integration of the test results gave a comprehensive dynamic model equation that could accurately calculate the weekly protein and amino acid requirements of the layer chicks. By applying the model, it was found that the protein requirements for Jing Tint 6 chicks during the 6-week period were 21.15, 20.54, 18.26, 18.77, 17.79, and 16.51, respectively. The model-predicted amino acid requirements for Jing Tint 6 chicks during the 6-week period were as follows: Aspartic acid (0.992-1.284), Threonine (0.601-0.750), Serine (0.984-1.542), Glutamic acid (1.661-1.925), Glycine (0.992-1.227), Alanine (0.909-0.961), Valine (0.773-1.121), Cystine (0.843-1.347), Methionine (0.210-0.267), Isoleucine (0.590-0.715), Leucine (0.977-1.208), Tyrosine (0.362-0.504), Phenylalanine (0.584-0.786), Histidine (0.169-0.250), Lysine (0.3999-0.500), Arginine (0.824-1.147), Proline (1.114-1.684), and Tryptophan (0.063-0.098). In conclusion, this study constructed a dynamic model for the protein and amino acid requirements of Jing Tint 6 chicks during the brooding period, providing an important insight to improve precise feeding for layer chicks through this dynamic model calculation.

An Extended Kolmogorov-Avrami-Ishibashi (EKAI) Model to Simulate Dynamic Characteristics of Polycrystalline-Ferroelectric-Gate Field-Effect Transistors.

A physics-based model on polarization switching in ferroelectric polycrystalline films is proposed. The calculation results by the model agree well with experimental results regarding dynamic operations of ferroelectric-gate field-effect transistors (FeFETs). In the model, an angle θ for each grain in the ferroelectric polycrystal is defined, where θ is the angle between the spontaneous polarization and the film normal direction. Under a constant electric field for a single-crystal film with θ = 0, phenomena regarding polarization domain nucleation and wall propagation are well described by the Kolmogorov-Avrami-Ishibashi theory. Since the electric fields are time-dependent in FeFET operations and the θ values are distributed in the polycrystalline film, the model in this paper forms an extended Kolmogorov-Avrami-Ishibashi (EKAI) model. Under a low electric field, the nucleation and domain propagation proceed according to thermally activated processes, meaning that switching the time scale of a grain with the angle θ is proportional to an exponential form as exp(const./Ezcosθ) [Ez: the film-normal electric field]. Wide θ distribution makes the time response quite broad even on the logarithmic scale, which relates well with the broad switching time experimentally shown by FeFETs. The EKAI model is physics based and need not assume non-physical distribution functions in it.

Research on Dynamic Modeling Method and Flying Gait Characteristics of Quadruped Robots with Flexible Spines.

In recent years, both domestic and international research on quadruped robots has advanced towards high dynamics and agility, with a focus on high-speed locomotion as a representative motion in high-dynamic activities. Quadruped animals like cheetahs exhibit high-speed running capabilities, attributed to the indispensable role played by their flexible spines during the flight phase motion. This paper establishes dynamic models of flexible spinal quadruped robots with different degrees of simplification, providing a parameterized description of the flight phase motion for both rigid-trunk and flexible-spine quadruped robots. By setting different initial values for the spine joint and calculating the flight phase results for both types of robots at various initial velocities, the study compares and analyzes the impact of a flexible spine on the flight phase motion of quadruped robots. Through comparative experiments, the research aims to validate the influence of a flexible spine during the flight phase motion, providing insights into how spine flexibility affects the flight phase motion of quadruped robots.

Simulation of particle deposition on solar photovoltaic panels based on a new critical capture velocity criterion.

Solar energy, as a clean energy source, is becoming increasingly important in the global energy mix. However, particle deposition on the surface of photovoltaic (PV) panels can significantly reduce their power generation efficiency. In this study, the collision-deposition behaviour between silica particles and the surface of PV modules is investigated. The impact process of 13 µm silica particles on the glass surface was recorded by using a high-speed digital camera at various incident velocities and angles. A particle dynamics model was developed to predict the critical capture velocity of particles at different incident angles. It was observed that the critical capture velocity of the particles decreases as the angle of incidence increases. Subsequently, a correlation equation was established between the incident angle and the critical capture velocity, serving as the deposition criterion. Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) numerical simulation was employed to simulate particle deposition on PV surfaces under different wind speeds and installation tilting angles. The simulation results demonstrate that the mass of 13 µm silica particles deposited on the surface of PV panels decreases with increasing wind speed. Moreover, under identical inlet wind speeds, the particle deposition mass exhibits an initial decrease followed by a subsequent increase as the installation tilt angle of the PV panel increases. The distribution pattern of particle deposition on PV panel surfaces is diverse; however, predominantly concentrated at the mid-bottom region.

Calculation of livestock biomass and value by province in Indonesia: Key information to support policymaking.

Accurate estimations of the biomass and value of livestock in Indonesia are of great use in supporting investment decisions by the public and private sector and as a basis for estimating the losses due to animal disease. Biomass and the partial direct use value for key livestock species (cattle, buffalo, sheep, goats, pigs, chickens) for all provinces of Indonesia were derived from secondary data using a novel spreadsheet-based model. Using beef cattle as an example, we also explored the use of a herd dynamics model to validate base data on populations and productivity used to generate biomass values, and these were found to be generally robust. Total partial direct use value of livestock is estimated to be almost USD54 billion in 2021, comprising almost USD33 billion of population value and almost USD21 billion of production value. Beef cattle account for 44% of total value and chicken (broiler, layer and native chickens) account for a further 36% of the total. Breaking the data down by province reveals the regional importance of some livestock types that are of relatively minor importance nationally (pigs in East Nusa Tenggara and sheep in West Java). It also reveals the importance of livestock in the poorest provinces of Indonesia, where livestock acts as a store of wealth and serves socio-cultural purposes.

Research on the evolution characteristics, driving mechanisms and multi-scenario simulation of habitat quality in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay based on multi-model coupling.

Since the 20th century, the global urbanization has led to a series of pollution issues, posing a severe threat to the habitat quality of human habitat. The quality of habitat determines whether ecosystems can provide suitable living conditions for humans and other species. Therefore, systematic study of the habitat quality is essential for the maintenance of sustainable development. In this study, we coupled models such as SD, InVEST and PLUS with a series of indicators to analyze the characteristics of land cover and habitat quality evolution in the Guangdong-HongKong-Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA) from 2000 to 2020 and deconstruct the driving mechanisms of habitat quality. Then simulate the evolution of land cover and habitat quality under different scenarios in 2030. The results show that: 1) Over the historical research period, the GBA exhibited "rapid expansion of artificial surfaces and rapid shrinkage of ecological land". Artificial surfaces increased by approximately 4878.95km2,while ecological land, such as agricultural land, decreased by about 3095.93km2.2) The degradation of habitat quality gradually accelerated and the habitat quality was characterized by "stepwise decline from the periphery to the interior", which was directly related to the land cover changes brought about by the topographic gradient effect in the Bay Area.3) Pollution control driven by environmental investments has had a moderating effect on habitat degradation, but it has not been able to change the overall degradation trend. 4) Scenario analysis suggests that future habitat quality in the GBA will degrade to a certain extent due to the impact of artificial surface expansion. We deduce that this will affect the structure of the city's ecological network as well as the conservation function of the ecological zones. This study provides a scientific basis for understanding the historical and future trends of habitat quality in the GBA, offering new insights into the intrinsic driving mechanisms of habitat quality. It also provides a theoretical support for relevant authorities to undertake sustainable development initiatives.

Prediction of effectiveness of universal rotavirus vaccination in Southwestern Vietnam based on a dynamic mathematical model.

Vaccinating young children against rotavirus (RV) is a promising preventive strategy against rotavirus gastroenteritis (RVGE). We evaluated the relative risk reduction of RVGE induced by universal vaccination in Vietnam through dynamic model analysis. We developed an age-stratified dynamic Vaccinated-Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered-Susceptible model to analyze RV transmission and assess vaccine effectiveness (VE). We assumed 3 different vaccine efficacies: 55%, 70%, and 85%. For model calibration, we used a database of patients under 5 years of age admitted to Ho Chi Minh No.1 Hospital with RVGE between January 2013 and December 2018. Assuming a vaccination rate of 95%, the number of RVGE hospitalizations after 5 years from universal RV vaccination decreased from 92,502 cases to 45,626 with 85% efficacy, to 54,576 cases with 70% efficacy, and to 63,209 cases with 55% efficacy. Additionally, RVGE hospitalizations after 10 years decreased from 177,950 to 89,517 with 85% efficacy and to 121,832 cases with 55% efficacy. The relative risk reductions of RVGE after 10 years were 49.7% with 85% efficacy, 40.6% with 70% efficacy, and 31.5% with 55% efficacy. The VE was 1.10 times (95% CI, 1.01-1.22) higher in the 4-months to 1-year-old age group than in the other age groups (P = 0.038), when applying 85% efficacy with 95% coverage. In conclusion, despite its relatively lower efficacy compared to high-income countries, RV vaccination remains an effective intervention in Southwestern Vietnam. In particular, implementing universal RV vaccination with higher coverage would result in a decrease in RVGE hospitalizations among Vietnamese children under 5 years of age.