Transboundary hazard and downstream impact of glacial lakes in Hindu-Kush Karakoram Himalayas.

Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) can generate catastrophic flash floods when the damming structure is breached or overtopped. Some of these glacial lakes are located in transboundary regions where floods originating from the lake in one country could inundate a neighboring country, devastating the population and infrastructure of both nations and influencing socio-political relationships. Therefore, assessing the lakes' hazard is crucial. This study investigates transboundary glacial lakes, considering their GLOF hazard, including potential mass movement intrusion, moraine's stability, upstream and downstream process cascades, downstream flood extents, and the exposure and vulnerability of the downstream infrastructure and affected population. GLOF exposure assessments were carried out to identify exposed buildings, bridges, and hydropower systems in transboundary regions. China currently has the highest number of transboundary lakes, with most of them potentially impacting India and Nepal. Most of the transboundary lakes in China, and many in India and Nepal, are susceptible to mass movements. Among the 230 transboundary glacial lakes in the Hindu Kush Karakoram Himalaya, 55 lakes can potentially impact other glacial lakes along their flow path, creating a cascade of events. Five transboundary lakes could potentially impact over 1000 buildings, and 16 lakes could impact over 500 buildings. A total of 35 lakes can impact at least one hydropower station along their flow path, and 4 lakes can impact two hydropower stations. This research emphasizes the critical importance of conducting comprehensive risk analyses of GLOFs in transboundary regions to inform policy-makers. It calls for investing in broad-scale assessments and data-driven decision-making for mitigating and adapting to GLOF risks effectively. Finally, by raising awareness among policy-makers, the study aims to drive actions that safeguard communities and infrastructure vulnerable to GLOF.

Cultivable bacteria in the supraglacial lake formed after a glacial lake outburst flood in northern Pakistan / Bacterias cultivables en el lago supraglacial formadas después de una inundación repentina en un lago glacial en el norte de Pakistán

Recently, a supraglacial lake formed as a result of a glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) in the Dook Pal Glacier. Lake debris and meltwater samples were collected from the supraglacial lake to determine bacterial diversity. Geochemical analyses of samples showed free amino acids (FAAs), anions, cations, and heavy metals. Comparable viable bacterial counts were observed in meltwater and debris samples. Using R2A media, a total of 52 bacterial isolates were identified: 40 from debris and 12 from meltwater. The relative abundance of Gram-positive (80.8%) bacteria was greater than Gram-negative (19.2%). Molecular identification of these isolates revealed that meltwater was dominated by Firmicutes (41.6%) and Proteobacteria (41.6%), while lake debris was dominated by Firmicutes (65.0%). The isolates belonged to 14 genera with the greatest relative abundance in Bacillus. Tolerance level of isolates to salts was high. Most of the Gram-positive bacteria were eurypsychrophiles, while most of the Gram-negative bacteria were stenopsychrophiles. Gram-negative bacteria displayed a higher minimum inhibitory concentration of selected heavy metals and antibiotics than Gram-positive. This first-ever study of culturable bacteria from a freshly formed supraglacial lake improves our understanding of the bacterial diversity and antibiotic resistance released from the glaciers as a result of GLOF.(AU)

Cultivable bacteria in the supraglacial lake formed after a glacial lake outburst flood in northern Pakistan.

Recently, a supraglacial lake formed as a result of a glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) in the Dook Pal Glacier. Lake debris and meltwater samples were collected from the supraglacial lake to determine bacterial diversity. Geochemical analyses of samples showed free amino acids (FAAs), anions, cations, and heavy metals. Comparable viable bacterial counts were observed in meltwater and debris samples. Using R2A media, a total of 52 bacterial isolates were identified: 40 from debris and 12 from meltwater. The relative abundance of Gram-positive (80.8%) bacteria was greater than Gram-negative (19.2%). Molecular identification of these isolates revealed that meltwater was dominated by Firmicutes (41.6%) and Proteobacteria (41.6%), while lake debris was dominated by Firmicutes (65.0%). The isolates belonged to 14 genera with the greatest relative abundance in Bacillus. Tolerance level of isolates to salts was high. Most of the Gram-positive bacteria were eurypsychrophiles, while most of the Gram-negative bacteria were stenopsychrophiles. Gram-negative bacteria displayed a higher minimum inhibitory concentration of selected heavy metals and antibiotics than Gram-positive. This first-ever study of culturable bacteria from a freshly formed supraglacial lake improves our understanding of the bacterial diversity and antibiotic resistance released from the glaciers as a result of GLOF.

An integrative method for identifying potentially dangerous glacial lakes in the Himalayas.

Glacial lakes in the Himalayas are widely distributed. Since 1900, more than 100 glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) have originated in the region, causing approximately 7000 deaths and considerable economic losses. Identifying potentially dangerous glacial lakes (PDGLs) is considered the first step in assessing GLOF risks. In this study, a more thorough inventory of PDGLs was presented that included numerous small-sized glacial lakes (<0.1 km2) that were generally neglected in the Himalayas for decades. Moreover, the PDGL evaluation system was improved in response to several deficiencies, such as the selection of assessment factors, which are sometimes arbitrary without a solid scientific basis. We designed an optimality experiment to select the best combination of assessment factors from 57 factors to identify PDGLs. Based on the experiments on both drained and non-drained glacial lakes in the Sunkoshi Basin, eastern Himalayas, five assessment factors were determined to be the best combination: the mean slope of the parent glacier, the potential for mass movement into the lake, the mean slope of moraine dams, the watershed area, and the lake perimeter, corresponding to the GLOF triggers for ice avalanches, rockfalls and landslides, dam instability, heavy precipitation or other liquid inflows, and lake characteristics, respectively. We then applied the best combination of assessment factors to the 1650 glacial lakes with an area greater than 0.02 km2 in the Himalayas. We identified 207 glacial lakes as very high-hazard and 345 as high-hazard. It is noteworthy that in various GLOF susceptibility evaluation scenarios with different assessment factors, weighting schemes, and classification approaches, similar results for glacial lakes with high outburst potential have been obtained. The results provided here can be used as benchmark data to assess the GLOF risks for local communities.

Use of multi-criteria decision analysis to identify potentially dangerous glacial lakes.

Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) represent a significant threat in deglaciating environments, necessitating the development of GLOF hazard and risk assessment procedures. Here, we outline a Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) approach that can be used to rapidly identify potentially dangerous lakes in regions without existing tailored GLOF risk assessments, where a range of glacial lake types exist, and where field data are sparse or non-existent. Our MCDA model (1) is desk-based and uses freely and widely available data inputs and software, and (2) allows the relative risk posed by a range of glacial lake types to be assessed simultaneously within any region. A review of the factors that influence GLOF risk, combined with the strict rules of criteria selection inherent to MCDA, has allowed us to identify 13 exhaustive, non-redundant, and consistent risk criteria. We use our MCDA model to assess the risk of 16 extant glacial lakes and 6 lakes that have already generated GLOFs, and found that our results agree well with previous studies. For the first time in GLOF risk assessment, we employed sensitivity analyses to test the strength of our model results and assumptions, and to identify lakes that are sensitive to the criteria and risk thresholds used. A key benefit of the MCDA method is that sensitivity analyses are readily undertaken. Overall, these sensitivity analyses lend support to our model, although we suggest that further work is required to determine the relative importance of assessment criteria, and the thresholds that determine the level of risk for each criterion. As a case study, the tested method was then applied to 25 potentially dangerous lakes in the Bolivian Andes, where GLOF risk is poorly understood; 3 lakes are found to pose 'medium' or 'high' risk, and require further detailed investigation.

Future climate warming and changes to mountain permafrost in the Bolivian Andes.

Water resources in many of the world's arid mountain ranges are threatened by climate change, and in parts of the South American Andes this is exacerbated by glacier recession and population growth. Alternative sources of water, such as more resilient permafrost features (e.g. rock glaciers), are expected to become increasingly important as current warming continues. Assessments of current and future permafrost extent under climate change are not available for the Southern Hemisphere, yet are required to inform decision making over future water supply and climate change adaptation strategies. Here, downscaled model outputs were used to calculate the projected changes in permafrost extent for a first-order assessment of an example region, the Bolivian Andes. Using the 0 °C mean annual air temperature as a proxy for permafrost extent, these projections show that permafrost areas will shrink from present day extent by up to 95 % under warming projected for the 2050s and by 99 % for the 2080s (under the IPCC A1B scenario, given equilibrium conditions). Using active rock glaciers as a proxy for the lower limit of permafrost extent, we also estimate that projected temperature changes would drive a near total loss of currently active rock glaciers in this region by the end of the century. In conjunction with glacier recession, a loss of permafrost extent of this magnitude represents a water security problem for the latter part of the 21st century, and it is likely that this will have negative effects on one of South America's fastest growing cities (La Paz), with similar implications for other arid mountain regions.

Glacial lakes in the Indian Himalayas--from an area-wide glacial lake inventory to on-site and modeling based risk assessment of critical glacial lakes.

Glacial lake hazards and glacial lake distributions are investigated in many glaciated regions of the world, but comparably little attention has been given to these topics in the Indian Himalayas. In this study we present a first area-wide glacial lake inventory, including a qualitative classification at 251 glacial lakes >0.01 km(2). Lakes were detected in the five states spanning the Indian Himalayas, and lake distribution pattern and lake characteristics were found to differ significantly between regions. Three glacial lakes, from different geographic and climatic regions within the Indian Himalayas were then selected for a detailed risk assessment. Lake outburst probability, potential outburst magnitudes and associated damage were evaluated on the basis of high-resolution satellite imagery, field assessments and through the use of a dynamic model. The glacial lakes analyzed in the states of Jammu and Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh were found to present moderate risks to downstream villages, whereas the lake in Sikkim severely threatens downstream locations. At the study site in Sikkim, a dam breach could trigger drainage of ca. 16×10(6)m(3) water and generate maximum lake discharge of nearly 7000 m(3) s(-). The identification of critical glacial lakes in the Indian Himalayas and the detailed risk assessments at three specific sites allow prioritizing further investigations and help in the definition of risk reduction actions.