The African cigarette price data landscape: an overview of gaps and opportunities.

INTRODUCTION: Africa has the lowest cigarette taxes of any region. Price data are needed to produce evidence that informs tax policy change. OBJECTIVE: To locate and describe datasets that provide information on cigarette prices in African countries and to identify opportunities for expanding the region's cigarette price information base. METHODS: Three data repositories and relevant literature were searched to locate free datasets that provide cigarette prices for African countries. 13 categories of information were extracted from each dataset, including the type of data collected (self-reported vs observational). The number of outliers and summary statistics, for the price of 20 cigarette sticks, was calculated using the most recent data available from each data collection project identified in a country. T-tests were conducted to compare these statistics for the 14 countries with both self-reported and observational price data available. RESULTS: A total of 131 datasets, covering 39/47 African countries, contain information on cigarette prices. Most datasets (N=111/131) provide self-reported information. Only 11 countries have used the three large-scale surveys that repeatedly collect information on smoking behaviour across Africa (Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey, Demographic and Health Survey and STEPwise) to collect information on cigarette prices. No active projects that collect self-reported price data sample from the youth (aged<15). Prices collected through retail observations exhibit fewer outliers than self-reported prices (p<0.05). CONCLUSION: The tobacco-control community should lead the process of using existing data collection efforts to enhance Africa's cigarette price information base. Increasing observational data collection efforts at retailers could improve our understanding of the prices paid for cigarettes in the region.

Tax and Globalisation: Toward a New Social Contract.

Taxation and representation are famously linked in the coercive co-authored project of political governance described through the social contract metaphor. Globalisation transforms this canonical account of the state. Many people can relocate and operate beyond state borders, consuming goods and services publicly offered by other jurisdictions. Expanding people's opportunities to satisfy their preferences and pursue their goals supports their liberty. Yet, it also limits the ability of states to collect taxes so as to provide necessary public goods and secure justice, jeopardising the bond between taxation and equal membership in a political community. The challenge for taxation under globalisation is to revitalise the very basis of the social contract. Ideally, the new social contract should support the states' just institutions and the collective self-determination of their members without rolling back the opportunities people have acquired through globalisation.

Economy-wide impact of a reduction in tobacco use in India.

BACKGROUND: Public policy measures aimed at regulating tobacco use should consider the net gains for the nation, as the tobacco sector contributes to employment and tax revenue while also imposing substantial economic burden on the country. This study investigates the economy-wide impact of reducing tobacco consumption in India through the implementation of fiscal measures. METHODS: The study uses a computable general equilibrium model based on the Global Trade Analysis Project model and database and augments the same with several country-specific information on tobacco products, to examine the macroeconomic impact of a targeted reduction in the consumption of bidis, cigarettes and smokeless tobacco by 10% by the year 2026 through the adoption of fiscal measures. RESULTS: The model results suggest that the targeted reduction in consumption may result in a 0.14% reduction in the gross domestic product (GDP) and a 0.44% reduction in overall employment in the economy. However, after accounting for the averted premature deaths due to tobacco use, the results indicate a net 0.22% increase in GDP and a net increase in employment of about 1.36 million jobs (or 0.29% of the labour force) over 5 years. Further, the tax increase measures proposed in this model to achieve the targeted reduction in consumption would generate an additional US$2774 million in revenues to the exchequer. CONCLUSION: The impact of targeted prevalence reduction of tobacco use is a win-win for the country considering its positive macroeconomic impacts in terms of net increases in both GDP as well as employment.

An assessment of the implications of distribution remuneration and taxation policies on the final prices of prescription medicines: evidence from 35 countries.

This paper analyses the structure of and variability in taxation and prescription drug distribution policies and quantifies the impact of such policies on the cost of prescription drugs to health systems in 35 countries. Taxes on prescription drugs remain highly prevalent (83% of the sample) although 63% of the sample countries implement a lower than standard VAT rate. Three remuneration types of the wholesale and retail distribution chain have been identified. Wholesale and retail distributors are remunerated on a regressive mark-up basis, which is price-dependent, although fixed fees and fixed percentages, which are non-price dependent, are also highly prevalent. Price component analysis for three groups of products classed as high-, medium- and low-priced suggests that mark-ups plus taxes varied significantly across countries and products, and ranged from 5% to 187% of ex-factory prices. Average margins also vary significantly by countries and products ranging 5-65% of retail prices. The cost of distribution and taxation contributes significantly to prescription drug costs for health systems. Although distribution chain remuneration raises efficiency and overall affordability questions, these need to be considered together with the regulatory framework shaping market structure of the distribution chain, as well as any prevailing horizontal and vertical integration policies. The overall cost of prescription drugs could be reduced immediately by eliminating taxation; this could go some way to alleviate fiscal pressures on health budgets, whilst avoiding resource re-allocation from health to other sectors.

The impact of tobacco tax increases on cost-minimising behaviours and subsequent smoking cessation in Australia: an analysis of the International Tobacco Control Policy Evaluation Project.

OBJECTIVE: We examined the relationship in Australia from 2007 to 2020 between tobacco tax increases and use of cost-minimising behaviours (CMBs) when purchasing tobacco and: (1) tobacco expenditure and (2) smoking cessation attempts and quit success. METHODS: We used data collected from adults who smoked factory-made and/or roll-your-own (RYO) cigarettes in nine waves (2007-2020) of the International Tobacco Control Policy Evaluation Project Australia Survey (Nsample=4975, Nobservations=10 474). CMBs included buying RYO tobacco, cartons, large-sized packs, economy packs, or tax avoidance/evasion, smoking reduction and e-cigarette use. Logistic regression, fit using generalised estimating equations, estimated the CMB-outcome association for quit attempts and quit success at the next wave follow-up (Nsubsample=2984, Nobservations=6843). RESULTS: Over half of respondents used a CMB for tobacco purchase (P-CMB) at baseline (57.1% in 2007-2008), increasing to 76.8% (2018) post-tax increases. Participating in any P-CMB was associated with having higher weekly tobacco expenditure. Engaging in any P-CMB was negatively associated with attempting to quit (aOR=0.82, 95% CI 0.69-0.98). Purchasing RYO tobacco or cartons was associated with making no quit attempts (aOR=0.66, 95% CI 0.52-0.83; aOR=0.72, 95% CI 0.59-0.89, respectively). Among respondents smoking cigarettes who made quit attempts, there were no significant associations between all P-CMBs and quit success. Neither smoking reduction nor vaping were significantly associated with quit attempts. CONCLUSION: P-CMBs are associated with reduced smoking cessation. Reducing opportunities for industry to promote purchasing-related CMB options, such as by standardising pack sizes and reducing the price differential between RYO and manufactured cigarettes could increase the effectiveness of tax increases.

Unlocking the power of tobacco taxation to mitigate the social costs of smoking in Mexico: A microsimulation model.

Despite being the most cost-effective tobacco control policy, tobacco taxation is the least implemented of the WHO MPOWER package to reduce smoking worldwide. In Mexico, both smoking prevalence and taxation have remained stable for more than a decade. This study aims to provide evidence about the potential effects of taxation to reduce the burden of tobacco-related diseases and the main attributable social costs in Mexico, including informal (unpaid) care costs, which are frequently ignored. We employ a first-order Monte Carlo microsimulation model that follows hypothetical population cohorts considering the risks of an adverse health event and death. First, we estimate tobacco-attributable morbidity and mortality, direct medical costs, and indirect costs, such as labour productivity losses and informal care costs. Then, we assess the potential effects of a 50% cigarette price increase through taxation and two alternative scenarios of 25% and 75%. The inputs come from several sources, including national surveys and vital statistics. Each year, 63,000 premature deaths and 427,000 disease events are attributable to tobacco in Mexico, while social costs amount to MX$194.6 billion (US$8.5) -MX$116.2 (US$5.1) direct medical costs and MX$78.5 (US$3.4) indirect costs-, representing 0.8% of GDP. Current tobacco tax revenue barely covers 23.3% of these costs. Increasing cigarette prices through taxation by 50% could reduce premature deaths by 49,000 over the next decade, while direct and indirect costs averted would amount to MX$87.9 billion (US$3.8) and MX$67.6 billion (US$2.9), respectively. The benefits would far outweigh any potential loss even in a pessimistic scenario of increased illicit trade. Tobacco use imposes high social costs on the Mexican population, but tobacco taxation is a win-win policy both for gaining population health as well as reducing tobacco societal costs.

Tobacco industry pricing strategies during recent tax adjustments in Mexico: evidence from sales data.

INTRODUCTION: Previous studies have identified pricing strategies that the tobacco industry employs to try to minimise the impact of tobacco taxation, but these studies are mostly about high-income countries. This research examines industry price responses to a recent cigarette tax increase in Mexico, including in the capsule cigarette segment that has expanded rapidly in Latin America. METHODS: Data of cigarette prices and sales in Mexico between October 2018 and September 2021 licensed from NielsenIQ were used following a quasi-experimental design to analyse price changes after excise tax increases with fixed effect models by product. To explore heterogeneous responses, estimates were disaggregated by cigarette attributes such as presence of capsules and market segment. Differential shifting was also assessed. RESULTS: Increasing the tobacco tax from 2011MX$0.35(≈US$0.02) to 2020 MX$0.4944(≈US$0.0283) in January 2020 was associated with an overall 8% cigarette price increase in real terms. However, some cigarette types, including premium to discount segments, exhibited price increases larger than the tax increase, which reduced the relative price of ultra-low-priced cigarettes. Instead of a single hike, prices were gradually raised throughout the first months of 2020 for all cigarette types. A combination of both pricing strategies was employed for capsule cigarettes. The 2021 smaller tax adjustment for annual inflation was fully passed onto consumer, maintaining real prices constant. CONCLUSIONS: The industry's ability to raise prices more than the tax increase and manage these price increases smoothly suggests that there was room for larger tobacco tax increases in Mexico. Future developments on tobacco taxes could consider a fully specific tax structure or minimum taxes to mitigate the adverse effects of market segmentation and differential shifting.

Evaluating attitudes toward soft drink consumption among adults in Saudi Arabia: Five years after selective taxation implementation.

Objective: Saudi Arabia (SA) ranked first in soft drink consumption in the Middle East. A decrease in consumption was recorded after a selective 50% increased taxation policy in 2018. This study aimed to assess soft drinks consumption patterns among Saudi Arabian adults and examine the association between different attitudes and patterns post-taxation. Methods: This cross-sectional study was conducted from October 2022 to March 2023, involving 1,935 Saudi adults aged 20-60 residing in Saudi Arabia. Participants completed online surveys using a validated questionnaire assessing sociodemographic characteristics, soft drink consumption patterns, and attitudes toward soft drinks. Chi-square and odds ratio (OR) tests were used to assess associations between sociodemographic characteristics, soft drink consumption frequency/quantity, and change in consumption patterns owing to selective taxation. Additionally, t-tests, Spearman's coefficient, and hierarchical multiple linear regression were used to measure differences in attitudes and linear relationships. Results: Overall, 7.5% of the participants reported daily soft drink consumption, with 51.8% of these consuming less than one can per day and 41.2% consuming one can per day. Most (66.2%) reported no change in consumption post-taxation. Attitudes toward soft drink consumption varied significantly, with most agreeing on its health risks but also enjoying the drinks. Multiple regression analysis identified age, education, income, consumption frequency/quantity, and impact of taxation as significant predictors of overall attitudes toward soft drinks. Conclusions: After taxation, 20% of participants reduced soft drink consumption, underscoring the importance of addressing taxation and intrinsic motivations to foster lasting changes in attitudes and behaviors towards soft drinks.

Taxation and Incentives in Private Health Services Delivery in Nigeria: Opinion of Private Health Practitioners.

Background: Tax relief and incentives are utilized to encourage the private health sector to provide services that are advantageous to community health. The aim of this study was to explore the issues related to taxes paid, incentives provided, returns on investment, satisfaction with practice, and plans of private health practitioners who were conference attendees in Port Harcourt in 2021. Methodology: A descriptive cross-sectional study was carried out at two national events in Port Harcourt, Rivers State, Nigeria in October, and December 2021, among conference attendees using self-administered questionnaires. Data obtained was analyzed using the IBM Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) version 20.0 and presented in tables. Results: A total of one hundred and sixty-six (166) respondents were involved in the study. One hundred and four (62.7%) respondents believed they experienced multiple taxation from agencies of government. Most respondents paid at least fifty thousand and above as taxes to various levels of government. One hundred and forty-two (85.5%) respondents believed they did not receive any incentive from governments for their private health businesses. Fifty-three (31.9%) were not satisfied, while55 (33.1%) respondents were managing to survive in the business environment. Conclusion: Private healthcare practitioners in Nigeria experience multiple taxation and a lack of incentives from governments. Dissatisfaction with the return on investment is prevalent. Inclusive health sector reform that will partly reduce the potential for brain drain is therefore needed.

Tobacco Taxation in Spain: A tax laggard with a brighter possible future.

INTRODUCTION: In recent years tobacco taxation in Spain has regressed, with its Tobacconomics tax scorecard falling from 3.9 points (out of 5) in 2014, to only 2.625 in 2020. The objective of this research is to provide a detailed analysis of the causes behind this deterioration and identify possible ways forward for reversing this trend. METHODS: A retrospective 2014-2022 analysis of manufactured cigarettes (FM) and roll-your-own tobacco (RYO) markets including tax structure/rates, affordability, retail price gaps across products, and price differentials with bordering countries. A market level simulation model to 2028 studied the impact of various tax policy scenarios on smoking prevalence, premature deaths averted, smoking intensity, product substitution, government revenue, sales, and industry profit. RESULTS: A lack of tax increases in a context of inflation and income growth during the past 8 years means FM and RYO have become 13% more affordable, with a constant differential of €2 between 20 FM and RYO sticks, and the price gap between Spain and neighbouring France increased. Modelling of two realistic reform scenarios that reduce/eliminate the price gap between FM and RYO suggest substantial increases in government revenues and up to 700,000 fewer smokers and 210,000 fewer premature deaths. CONCLUSIONS: Current European Union legislation on tobacco taxes leaves ample room for much needed tobacco tax reform. For the sake of both public health and the economy, Spain should increase its Minimum Excise Tax. This would not only save lives, but also bring much needed revenue for the government. IMPLICATIONS: The stance of Spain on tobacco taxes has deteriorated recently. This study argues that the failure of successive governments to raise minimum taxes in an inflationary context has made tobacco products more affordable, and quantifies the improvements in smoking prevalence and excise revenue that would accrue if the authorities act urgently increasing rates within realistic limits.Spain is representative of European countries where government inaction has rendered minimum tobacco taxes obsolete. Given the postponement of the revision of the European Union Tobacco Tax Directive, this study highlights the need to act unilaterally within the existing legal framework.

The 30-Billion-Dollar Distribution Markups and Taxes of Pharmaceuticals in Latin American Countries: Impact, Options, and Trade-Offs.

OBJECTIVES: The World Health Organization provides 10 specific guidelines for managing the prices of pharmaceutical products. Many of those are widely known and used such as reference pricing, value-based pricing, price transparency, and tendering. Less attention and knowledge is concentrated in markup regulation across the pharmaceutical supply chain and distribution and in tax exemptions or reductions. This article quantifies the impact of these price components in the Latin American (LatAm) region and places the findings in the context of economic theory and international policy experiences. METHODS: 2020 retail pharmaceutical sales data from 8 major LatAm markets covered in the IQVIA database were decomposed into ex-factory, distributor markups, and taxes using price build up information and the Price Decipher Methodology developed by the Novartis Global Pricing Governance and Negotiation team. The findings were reviewed by an international panel representing academia, health policy, health economics, patient, and industry. RESULTS: The ex-factory market value of the analyzed markets was $49 billion. Distribution markups added $20 billion and taxes a further $10.5 billion. This represented a 63% increase over ex-factory prices, considered high if compared with 24% for an international benchmark of 35 ex-LatAm countries. Reducing markups for these LatAm countries to 24% would represent up to $19 billion in savings for payers and patients. CONCLUSIONS: There is potential for significant cost reductions associated with tax and distribution markup refinements in the LatAm retail pharmaceutical market. National policies should be informed by additional context-specific research for effective implementation.

Unveiling viewpoints on national food environment policies in the Dutch newspaper discourse: an interpretative media content analysis.

BACKGROUND: National food environment policies can contribute to the reduction of diet-related non-communicable diseases. Yet, their implementation in the Netherlands remains low. It has been hypothesized that the media can play a pivotal role in inducing spikes in policy attention, thereby shaping political action. The aim of this study was to examine the discourse on food policies in Dutch newspaper articles between 2000-2022, by analyzing arguments used by various actors. METHODS: A systematic search in Nexis Uni was used to identify newspaper articles that covered national-level Dutch food environment policies published in seven Dutch national newspapers between 2000-2022. Covered policies were classified into six domains including food composition, labeling, promotion, prices, provision and retail and into the four stages of the policy cycle; policy formulation, decision-making, implementation, and evaluation. A grey literature search was used to identify food policies implemented during 2000-2022. Descriptive statistics were used to summarize coverage of policies over time, policy type and policy stage. An interpretive content analysis was performed on a random subsample of the newspaper articles to determine the actors, viewpoints and arguments of the food policies. RESULTS: We identified 896 relevant newspaper articles. The coverage of food policies in newspapers was initially low but peaked in 2018/2021/2022. Through grey literature search we identified 6 food policies which were implemented or adjusted between 2000-2022. The majority of the newspaper articles reported on food pricing policies and were discussed in the policy formulation stage. Academics (mainly supportive) were the most and food industry (mostly opposing) the least cited actors. Supportive arguments highlighted health consequences, health inequalities and collective responsibility, whereas opposing arguments focused on unwanted governmental interference and ineffectiveness of policies. CONCLUSIONS: Dutch newspaper articles covering food policies represented a variety of actors and arguments, with individual versus collective responsibility for food choices playing a central role in the arguments. These insights may serve as a basis for further research into why certain arguments are used and their effect on policy attention and implementation.

Carbon taxation on high utility transport fuels: An implementation of enviro-economic analysis for the sustainable environment".

The humongous increase in carbon emissions in the past few decades presents an environmental challenge to the scientific community. The current study proposes a method of taxation on high-carbon emission fuels. For this purpose, a comparative enviro-economic analysis is carried out on the three most commonly used fuels (gasoline, Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG), and Compressed Natural Gas (CNG)). The speed of the test engine varied from 1800 to 4200 Revolution per Minute (RPM) in increments of 400 RPM. Performance parameters (Brake Power (BP), Brake Thermal Efficiency (BTHE), and Brake Specific Fuel Consumption (BSFC)) were measured using a hydro dynamometer. Emission analysis, including Carbon Dioxide (CO2), Carbon Monoxide (CO), Unburned Hydrocarbons (HC), and Nitrogen Oxide (NOx), was conducted using the TESTO 350 analyzer. The application of Weibull distribution with a 95 % confidence interval, on emission data, explained the adequacy of the data. Among test fuels, CNG emerged as an environment-friendly fuel with an emission reduction of 16, 42, and 43 percent for CO2, CO, and HC in comparison to gasoline. Also, BTHE and BSFC of CNG were better than other alternatives. Moreover, the carbon penalty for CNG fuel showed a price reduction of 32 and 20.8 percent in comparison to gasoline and LPG respectively. The study provides a novel approach to assess the environmental impact of fuels by economic analysis based on emitted carbon quantity. In addition, this very idea is novel in promoting the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) of the United Nations (UN) through carbon taxation.

Tax increases as an incentive to quit smoking: is thinking about quitting due to a tobacco tax increase associated with post-tax increase smoking cessation?

BACKGROUND: The cost of tobacco is one of the most reported reasons to quit smoking. The Netherlands increased tobacco taxes twice in the span of nine months: a €1 increase per pack in April 2020, and a €0.12 increase per pack in January 2021. This study examines to what extent people report to think about quitting due to the upcoming tax increase(s), as well as how it relates to their age, income or educational level. Additionally, we examined whether thinking about quitting was associated with quit intention and quit behaviour, and whether these associations were different for the two tax increases. METHODS: Longitudinal data from the International Tobacco Control (ITC) Netherlands Surveys, Cohort 2 were used (N = 5919 observations; wave 1 (February - March 2020): n = 2051; wave 2 (September - November 2020): n = 1919; wave 3 (June - July 2021): n = 1949). Generalised Estimating Equation (GEE) regressions were fit to test the associations between thinking about quitting due to the tax increase and post-tax increases in quit intention, serious quit attempts, and quitting smoking (≤ 1 cigarette a month), as well as sociodemographic variables. RESULTS: Circa half of the people who smoke reported thinking about quitting smoking due to the upcoming tax increase (Wave 1 = 51.3% (n = 1052); Wave 2 = 47.3% (n = 849)). Individuals who reported thinking about quitting smoking due to upcoming tax increase(s) were more likely to have increased their quit intention (aOR: 2.00, p ≤ .001) or have carried out a serious quit attempt (aOR:1.48, p ≤ .001) post-tax increase. More people attempted to quit smoking between wave 2 and 3 (post 2021 increase) than between wave 1 and 2 (post 2020 increase). We did not find an interaction effect between wave and thinking about quitting for quit intention, quit attempts, and quitting smoking. CONCLUSIONS: Tax increases stimulate people to think about quitting. Thinking about quitting due to an upcoming tax increase was associated with more positive quit intention and serious quit attempts.

Health and equity impacts of global consultancy firms.

BACKGROUND: Concern is growing over the power, influence, and threats to health and equity from the operations of large global consultancy firms. Collectively, these firms support a neoliberal policy environment promoting business interests ahead of public health. Global consultancy firms act as commercial determinants of health, an evolving area of research over recent years. However, this research mainly focuses on specific corporations or industry sectors, especially those which produce harmful products, including ultra-processed food, alcohol, and fossil fuels. It is therefore important to expand the focus to include large global consultancy firms and place a public health and equity lens over their operations. MAIN BODY: Global consultancy firms have wide-ranging conflicts of interest. These arise from the 'revolving door' employment strategies between their own staff and those from government and regulatory bodies. These firms also advise governments on taxation and other matters while concurrently advising corporate clients on ways to minimise taxation. They advise fossil fuel corporations while also advising governments on climate and health policies. These firms undermine the capabilities of the public sector through the outsourcing of traditional public sector roles to these private interests. Consultancy firms foster private interests through their engagement with the higher education sector, and thereby weaken the tradition of transparent management of university affairs by accountable university councils. While private consultancies cannot be blamed for all the negative consequences for health and equity caused by the problems associated with globalisation and advanced capitalism, they have played a role in amplifying them. CONCLUSION: Addressing the negative impacts of global consultancy firms will require strengthening the public sector, enforcing greater transparency, accountability, and minimising conflicts of interest. It will also demand critical thought, counter discourses, and activism to reframe the narratives supporting neo-liberal ideas of governance that are promoted in both government and business arenas.

The implications of policy modeling assumptions for the projected impact of sugar-sweetened beverage taxation on body weight and type 2 diabetes in Germany.

BACKGROUND: Evaluating sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) taxation often relies on simulation models. We assess how assumptions about the response to SSB taxation affect the projected body weight change and subsequent health and economic impacts related to type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) using Germany as an example. METHODS: In the main analysis, we estimated changes in energy intake by age and sex under a 20% value-added tax on SSBs in Germany using marginal price elasticities (PE) and applied an energy equilibrium model to predict body weight changes. We then quantified the impact of several assumption modifications: SSB own-PE adjusted for consumption (M1)/based on alternative meta-analysis (M2); SSB consumption adjusted for underreporting (M3); substitution via marginal (M4a) or adjusted (M4b) cross-PE/as % of calorie change (M4c). We also assessed scenarios with alternative tax rates of 10% (S1) or 30% (S2) and including fruit juice (S3). We calculated overweight and obesity rates per modification and scenario. We simulated the impact on T2DM, associated healthcare costs, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) over the lifetime of the 2011 German adult population with a Markov model. Data included official demographics, national surveys, and meta-analyses. RESULTS: A 20% value-added tax in Germany could reduce the number of men and women with obesity by 210,800 [138,800; 294,100] and 80,800 [45,100; 123,300], respectively. Over the population's lifetime, this would lead to modest T2DM-related health and economic impacts (76,700 DALYs [42,500; 120,600] averted; €2.37 billion [1.33; 3.71] costs saved). Policy impacts varied highly across modifications (all in DALYs averted): (M1) 94,800 [51,500; 150,700]; (M2) 164,200 [99,500; 243,500]; (M3) 52,600 [22,500; 91,100]; (M4a) -18,100 [-111,500; 68,300]; (M4b) 25,800 [-31,400; 81,500]; (M4c) 46,700 [25,300; 77,200]. The variability in policy impact related to modifications was similar to the variability between alternative policy scenarios (all in DALYs averted): (S1) 26,400 [9,300; 47,600]; (S2) 126,200 [73,600; 194,500]; (S3) 342,200 [234,200; 430,400]. CONCLUSIONS: Predicted body weight reductions under SSB taxation are sensitive to assumptions by researchers often needed due to data limitations. Because this variability propagates to estimates of health and economic impacts, the resulting structural uncertainty should be considered when using results in decision-making.

Economic evaluation of the recent French tobacco control policy: a model-based approach.

BACKGROUND: One in four French adults smoked daily in 2021, compared with one in six in Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries. To strengthen its tobacco control policy, in 2016, France has started implementing a policy package that includes a 3-year gradual price increase, plain packaging, an annual social marketing campaign promoting cessation and the reimbursement of nicotine replacement products. This study aims to evaluate the health and economic impact of this policy package. METHODS: The long-term policy impact on disease cases, healthcare expenditure and gains in labour participation and productivity was evaluated by using the OECD microsimulation model for Strategic Public Health Planning for Non-Communicable Diseases. The model was fed with historical and projected trends on tobacco smoking prevalence as produced by the policy package. RESULTS: Over the period 2023-2050, the policy package is estimated to avoid about 4.03 million (2.09-11.84 million) cases of chronic diseases, save €578 million (365-1848 million) per year in health expenditure and increase employment and workforce productivity by the equivalent to 19 800 (9100-59 900) additional full-time workers per year, compared with a scenario in which the intervention package is not implemented. The intervention cost is estimated at about €148 million per year. For each euro invested in the policy package, €4 will be returned in long-term savings in healthcare expenditure. CONCLUSIONS: The tobacco control policy package implemented by France, targeting smoking initiation and promoting tobacco cessation is an effective intervention with an excellent return on investment.

Long-term impact of unhealthy food tax on consumption and the drivers behind: A longitudinal study in Hungary.

Several countries have introduced public health product taxes with the objective of reducing the absolute amount of consumption of unhealthy food and tackling obesity. This study aims to estimate the long-term impact of the Hungarian public health product tax introduced in 2011. To achieve this, a unique consumer purchase dataset was analysed to examine daily fast-moving consumer goods purchases from a representative sample of 2,000 households from 2010 to 2018. The results indicate that the tax has been fully reflected in consumer prices. A decline in consumption was observed initially, consistent with previous experiences in Hungary and other countries. However, over time, the data suggests a recovery and even an increase in line with the growth of disposable income. The proportion of taxed products in total fast-moving consumer goods purchases increased from 5.9 % (95 % CI: 5.7 % to 6.0 %) in 2010 to 7.4 % (95 % CI: 7.3 % to 7.6 %) in 2018. Furthermore, the tax has contributed to increased inequality as low-income households spend a higher proportion of their total expenditure on it. Although taxes on unhealthy foods have proven effective in the short-term, they may not be adequate for reducing overall consumption in the long-term, particularly as disposable income increases. In conclusion, implementing complex interventions is necessary to achieve sustainable positive changes in dietary habits.

Modelling the impacts of volumetric and minimum unit pricing for alcohol on social harms in Australia.

AIMS: Alcohol pricing policies may reduce alcohol-related harms, yet little work has been done to model their effectiveness beyond health outcomes especially in Australia. We aim to estimate the impacts of four taxation and minimum unit pricing (MUP) interventions on selected social harms across sex and age subgroups in Australia. METHODS: We used econometrics and epidemiologic simulations using demand elasticity and risk measures. We modelled four policies including (A) uniform excise rates (UER) (based on alcohol units) (B) MUP $1.30 on all alcoholic beverages (C) UER + 10 % (D) MUP$ 1.50. People who consumed alcohol were classified as (a) moderate (≤ 14 Australian standard drinks (SDs) per week) (b) Hazardous (15-42 SDs per week for men and 14-35 ASDs for women) and (c) Harmful (> 42 SDs per week for men and > 35 ASDs for women). Outcomes were sickness absence, sickness presenteeism, unemployment, antisocial behaviours, and police-reported crimes. We used relative risk functions from meta-analysis, cohort study, cross-sectional survey, or attributable fractions from routine criminal records. We applied the potential impact fraction to estimate the reduction in social harms by age group and sex after implementation of pricing policies. RESULTS: All four modelled pricing policies resulted in a decrease in the overall mean baseline of current alcohol consumption, primarily due to fewer people drinking harmful amounts. These policies also reduced the total number of crimes and workplace harms compared to the current taxation system. These reductions were consistent across all age and sex subgroups. Specifically, sickness absence decreased by 0.2-0.4 %, alcohol-related sickness presenteeism by 7-9 %, unemployment by 0.5-0.7 %, alcohol-related antisocial behaviours by 7.3-11.1 %, and crimes by 4-6 %. Of all the policies, the implementation of a $1.50 MUP resulted in the largest reductions across most outcome measures. CONCLUSION: Our results highlight that alcohol pricing policies can address the burden of social harms in Australia. However, pricing policies should just form part of a comprehensive alcohol policy approach along with other proven policy measures such as bans on aggressive marketing of alcoholic products and enforcing the restrictions on the availability of alcohol through outlet density regulation or reduced hours of sale to have a more impact on social harms.