MRI-based prediction of the need for wide resection margins in patients with single hepatocellular carcinoma.

OBJECTIVES: To develop an MRI-based score that enables individualized predictions of the survival benefit of wide over narrow resection margins. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This single-center retrospective study (December 2011 to May 2022) included consecutive patients who underwent curative-intent resection for single Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) 0/A HCC and preoperative contrast-enhanced MRI. In patients with narrow resection margins, preoperative demographic, laboratory, and MRI variables independently associated with early recurrence-free survival (RFS) were identified using Cox regression analyses, which were employed to develop a predictive score (named "MARGIN"). Survival outcomes were compared between wide and narrow resection margins in a propensity-score matched cohort for the score-stratified low- and high-risk groups, respectively. RESULTS: Four hundred nineteen patients (median age, 54 years; 361 men) were included, 282 (67.3%) undergoing narrow resection margins. In patients with narrow resection margins, age, alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) > 400 ng/mL, protein induced by vitamin K absence or antagonist-II (PIVKA-II) > 200 mAU/mL, radiological involvement of liver capsule, and infiltrative appearance were associated with early RFS (p values, 0.002-0.04) and formed the MARGIN score with a testing dataset C-index of 0.75 (95% CI: 0.65-0.84). In the matched cohort, wide resection margin was associated with improved early RFS rate for the high-risk group (MARGIN score ≥ - 1.3; 71.1% vs 41.0%; p = 0.02), but not for the low-risk group (MARGIN score < - 1.3; 79.7% vs 76.1%; p = 0.36). CONCLUSION: In patients with single BCLC 0/A HCC, the MARGIN score may serve as promising decision-making to indicate the need for wide resection margins. CLINICAL RELEVANCE STATEMENT: The MARGIN score has the potential to identify patients who would benefit more from wide resection margins than narrow resection margins, improving the postoperative survival of patients with single BCLC 0/A hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). KEY POINTS: Age, AFP, PIVKA-II, radiological involvement of liver capsule, and infiltrative appearance were associated with early RFS and formed the MARGIN score. The MARGIN score achieved a testing dataset C-index of 0.75. Wide resection margins were associated with improved early RFS for the high-risk group, but not for the low-risk group.

Predictors of early recurrence of oesophagogastric adenocarcinoma after neoadjuvant FLOT.

BACKGROUND: Although survival of patients with oesophagogastric adenocarcinomas has improved over the years, rates of cancer recurrence remain high. There is limited research on predictors of early recurrence (ER), especially in patients receiving FLOT chemotherapy. The aim of this study was to investigate ER and survival rates and identify risk factors for ER. METHODS: Patients receiving neoadjuvant chemotherapy with FLOT for oesophagogastric adenocarcinoma at single high-volume centre between August 2018 and January 2023 were evaluated for early recurrence defined as disease present within 1 year of surgery. Multivariable analysis was conducted to identify risk factors for ER. Patients who died in-hospital or within 90 days of surgery and those with positive longitudinal margin were excluded. RESULTS: 196 patients were included. 93.3 % and 40.3 % of patients completed all four neoadjuvant and adjuvant cycles of FLOT respectively. 54 patients (27.6 %) developed recurrence in the follow up period with 27 patients (13.8 %) having ER. Recurrence free survival and overall survival at one year were 83.7 % and 90.8 % respectively. The estimated median survival after recurrence was 4.1 months. Extracapsular spread was found to be independent risk factor for ER (OR 4.565, 95 % CI 1.450-14.369, p = 0.009) in multivariable analyses together with ypN3 stage (OR 7.978, 95 % CI 1.339-47.534, p = 0.023). CONCLUSIONS: The variables identified in this study may be helpful in determining patients at a higher risk of ER following curative surgery. Understanding these predictors may help tailor the follow up care of these patients, such as regular surveillance imaging, treatment, and frequency of reviews.

A simple model to predict early recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma after liver resection.

PURPOSE: Multiple studies have reported models for predicting early recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after liver resection (LR). However, these models are too complex to use in daily practice. We aimed to develop a simple model. METHOD: We enrolled 1133 patients with newly diagnosed HCC undergoing LR. The Kaplan - Meier method and log-rank test were used for survival analysis and Cox proportional hazards analysis to identify prognostic factors associated with early recurrence (i.e., recurrence within two years after LR). RESULTS: Early recurrence was identified in 403 (35.1%) patients. In multivariate analysis, alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) 20-399 vs. < 20 ng/ml (HR = 1.282 [95% confidence interval = 1.002-1.639]; p = 0.048); AFP ≥ 400 vs. < 20 ng/ml (HR = 1.755 [1.382-2.229]; p < 0.001); 7th edition American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) stage 2 vs. 1 (HR = 1.958 [1.505-2.547]; p < 0.001); AJCC stage 3 vs. 1 (HR = 4.099 [3.043-5.520]; p < 0.001); and pathology-defined cirrhosis (HR = 1.46 [1.200-1.775]; p < 0.001) were associated with early recurrence. We constructed a predictive model with these variables, which provided three risk strata for recurrence-free survival (RFS): low risk, intermediate risk, and high risk, with two-year RFS of 79%, 57%, and 35%, respectively (p < 0.001). CONCLUSION: We developed a simple model to predict early recurrence risk for patients undergoing LR for HCC.

Predictors of occult metastases in potentially Resectable pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma.

Background: Patients with resectable (R) or borderline resectable (BR) pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) sometimes show unexpected liver, peritoneal, and para-aortic lymph node metastases intraoperatively. Despite radical pancreatectomy, a nonnegligible number of patients relapse within 6 months after surgery. The aim of this study was to identify the preoperative predictors of occult metastases (OM), defined as intraoperative distant metastases or within 6 months after pancreatectomy. Materials and methods: This study included patients with R and BR PDAC who underwent curative-intent pancreatectomy or staging laparoscopy between 2006 and 2021. Multivariate logistic regression and Cox hazard analyses were performed to identify the preoperative predictors of OM and to assess the impact of these factors on prognosis after pancreatectomy. Results: Of the 279 patients, OM was observed intraoperatively in 47 and postoperatively in 34. In the OM group, there were no differences in prognosis between patients who had intraoperative metastases and recurrence within 6 months (median survival time [MST], 18.1 vs. 12.9 months), and between patients who underwent pancreatectomy and those who did not (MST, 13.9 vs. 18.1 months). Preoperative tumor size ≥22 mm (odds ratio [OR], 2.03; 95 % confidence interval [CI], 1.16-3.53; p = 0.013) and preoperative CA19-9 level ≥ 118.8 U/mL (OR, 2.64; 95 % CI, 1.22-5.73; p = 0.014) were significant predictors of OM. Additionally, positive OM predictors were strong independent prognostic factors for overall survival after pancreatectomy (hazard ratio, 2.47; 95 % CI, 1.54-3.98; p < 0.001). Conclusion: Multidisciplinary treatment strategies should be considered for patients with predictors of OM to avoid inappropriate surgical interventions.

A CT-based radiomics tumor quality and quantity model to predict early recurrence after radical surgery for colorectal liver metastases.

PURPOSE: This study aimed to develop a tumor radiomics quality and quantity model (RQQM) based on preoperative enhanced CT to predict early recurrence after radical surgery for colorectal liver metastases (CRLM). METHODS: A retrospective analysis was conducted on 282 cases from 3 centers. Clinical risk factors were examined using univariate and multivariate logistic regression (LR) to construct the clinical model. Radiomics features were extracted using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) for dimensionality reduction. The LR learning algorithm was employed to construct the radiomics model, RQQM (radiomics-TBS), combined model (radiomics-clinical), clinical risk score (CRS) model and tumor burden score (TBS) model. Inter-model comparisons were made using area under the curve (AUC), decision curve analysis (DCA) and calibration curve. Log-rank tests assessed differences in disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS). RESULTS: Clinical features screening identified CRS, KRAS/NRAS/BRAF and liver lobe distribution as risk factors. Radiomics model, RQQM, combined model demonstrated higher AUC values compared to CRS and TBS model in training, internal and external validation cohorts (Delong-test P < 0.05). RQQM outperformed the radiomics model, but was slightly inferior to the combined model. Survival curves revealed statistically significant differences in 1-year DFS and 3-year OS for the RQQM (P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: RQQM integrates both "quality" (radiomics) and "quantity" (TBS). The radiomics model is superior to the TBS model and has a greater impact on patient prognosis. In the absence of clinical data, RQQM, relying solely on imaging data, shows an advantage in predicting early recurrence after radical surgery for CRLM.

Nomograms established for predicting microvascular invasion and early recurrence in patients with small hepatocellular carcinoma.

BACKGROUND: In this study, we aimed to establish nomograms to predict the microvascular invasion (MVI) and early recurrence in patients with small hepatocellular carcinoma (SHCC), thereby guiding individualized treatment strategies for prognosis improvement. METHODS: This study retrospectively analyzed 326 SHCC patients who underwent radical resection at Wuhan Union Hospital between April 2017 and January 2022. They were randomly divided into a training set and a validation set at a 7:3 ratio. The preoperative nomogram for MVI was constructed based on univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis, and the prognostic nomogram for early recurrence was constructed based on univariate and multivariate Cox regression analysis. We used the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, area under the curves (AUCs), and calibration curves to estimate the predictive accuracy and discriminability of nomograms. Decision curve analysis (DCA) and Kaplan-Meier survival curves were employed to further confirm the clinical effectiveness of nomograms. RESULTS: The AUCs of the preoperative nomogram for MVI on the training set and validation set were 0.749 (95%CI: 0.684-0.813) and 0.856 (95%CI: 0.805-0.906), respectively. For the prognostic nomogram, the AUCs of 1-year and 2-year RFS respectively reached 0.839 (95%CI: 0.775-0.903) and 0.856 (95%CI: 0.806-0.905) in the training set, and 0.808 (95%CI: 0.719-0.896) and 0.874 (95%CI: 0.804-0.943) in the validation set. Subsequent calibration curves, DCA analysis and Kaplan-Meier survival curves demonstrated the high accuracy and efficacy of the nomograms for clinical application. CONCLUSIONS: The nomograms we constructed could effectively predict MVI and early recurrence in SHCC patients, providing a basis for clinical decision-making.

Risk Factors for Early Recurrence After Radical Resection of Hepatocellular Carcinoma Based on Preoperative Contrast-Enhanced Ultrasound and Clinical Features.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate risk factors for the early recurrence (ER) of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after radical resection based on preoperative contrast-enhanced ultrasound (CEUS) and clinical features to provide guidance for clinical treatment. METHODS: The retrospective analysis selected 130 HCC patients who underwent radical tumor resection from October 2019 to November 2021. All patients underwent preoperative routine ultrasound examination and CEUS, and the pathology was confirmed as HCC after surgery. The patients were divided into two groups based on whether there is an ER, namely the ER group and the non-ER group. The general clinical, routine and CEUS data of patients were collected, and the factors were selected by using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression. Multivariate logistic regression was used to screen the independent influencing factors of ER. Then a nomogram model was established to predict the risk of ER, and the application value of nomogram through internal validation was evaluated. RESULTS: Multivariate logistic regression identified several independent factors influencing ER after radical HCC resection. Significant factors included early wash-out phase (95%CI = 0.003-0.206, P = 0.001), liver cirrhosis (95%CI = 2.835-221.224, P = 0.004), incomplete envelope (95%CI = 5.247-1056.130,P = 0.001), multiple lesions (95%CI = 1.110-135.424,P = 0.041), Albumin <40 g/L (95%CI = 2.496-127.223,P = 0.004), and Golgi Protein 73 (GP73) ≥ 85 ng/mL (95%CI = 1.594-30.002, P = 0.010), with all P-values <0.05. The nomogram prediction model constructed based on the results of multivariate logistic regression, demonstrated a ROC curve AUC of 0.879, a sensitivity of 93.5%, a specificity of 66.7%, and a C-index of 0.602, indicating superior diagnostic efficiency compared to independent influencing factors. The ER nomogram prediction model confirmed good discrimination and calibration in internal validation. CONCLUSION: The CEUS-Clinical combined model effectively monitors the risk of ER in high-risk populations following radical resection of HCC, timely interventions to improve patient prognosis.

Preoperative CT features for characterization of vessels that encapsulate tumor clusters in hepatocellular carcinoma.

PURPOSE: To explore the capability of preoperative CT imaging features, in combination with clinical indicators, for predicting vessels that encapsulate tumor clusters (VETC) pattern and prognosis in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). MATERIALS AND METHODS: From January 2015 to May 2022, patients with HCC who underwent curative resection and preoperative enhanced CT were retrospectively included. Clinical indicators and imaging featuresassociated with the VETC pattern were determined by logistic regression analyses. The early recurrence (ER) rate was determined using the Kaplan-Meier survival curve. Factors associated with ER after surgical resection were identified by Cox regression analyses. RESULT: A total of 243 patients with HCCwere evaluated. The total bilirubin > 17.1 µmol/L (odds ratio [OR] 3.43, 95 % Confidence Interval [CI] 1.70, 6.91, p = 0.001), serum α-fetoprotein > 100 ng/mL (OR 2.41, 95 % CI 1.25, 4.67, p = 0.009), intratumor artery (IA) (OR 2.00, 95 % CI 1.04, 3.86,p = 0.039) and arterial peritumoral enhancement (OR 2.60, 95 % CI 1.13, 5.96, p = 0.025) were independent risk factors for VETC+-HCC. The VETC+status andCT feature ofIA were associated with an increased risk of recurrence, with a shorter median RFS, compared to those without these factors (p < 0.001 and p = 0.019, respectively). In multivariable Cox regression analysis, the VETC+(hazard ratio [HR] 2.60, 95 % CI 1.66, 4.09, p < 0.001), morphological patterns of confluent multinodular growth (HR 1.79, 95 % CI 1.10, 2.91,p = 0.019), the number of the tumors (≥2) (HR 2.69, 95 % CI 1.56, 4.65, p < 0.001), and the IA (HR 1.73, 95 % CI 1.12, 2.66, p = 0.013) were independent predictors of ER in patients with HCC after surgical resection. CONCLUSION: Preoperative CT features combined with clinical indicators could predict VETC pattern, and the CT features, along with VETC status, were of prognostic significance for early postoperative recurrence in patients with HCC. CLINICAL RELEVANCE STATEMENT: Preoperative CT features combined with clinical indicators could predict VETC pattern, and the CT features, along with VETC status, were of prognostic significance for early recurrence in patients with HCC after surgical resection.

Redefining the blanking period after pulsed-field ablation in patients with atrial fibrillation.

BACKGROUND: Recurrence during the 3-month blanking period after radiofrequency ablation of atrial fibrillation (AF) is typically not considered as a predictor for late recurrence. OBJECTIVE: We investigated the significance of early recurrence as a risk factor for late recurrence in patients with AF receiving pulsed-field ablation (PFA). METHODS: Consecutive patients undergoing PFA were prospectively followed up for 1 year. All patients received isolation of pulmonary veins. Additional ablation procedures were performed per operator's discretion. After the procedure, all remained on their previously ineffective antiarrhythmic drugs (AADs) during the 2-month blanking period after which the AADs were discontinued. Early recurrence was defined as atrial arrhythmia of >30-second duration during the 3-month blanking period, and any recurrence beyond 3 months was considered as late recurrence. RESULTS: A total of 337 patients undergoing PFA for AF were included. Early recurrence was recorded in 53 patients (15.7%): 10 in the first month, 12 in the second month, and 31 in the third month. Of the 10 patients having recurrence during the first month, 7 (70%) remained in sinus rhythm after cardioversion whereas 3 (30%) underwent a redo procedure because of late recurrence. At 1 year, all patients with recurrence in the second and third months experienced late recurrence; among these patients, 10 (83.3%) of 12 and 27 (87%) of 31 underwent a redo procedure and the remaining 6 patients were in sinus rhythm on AADs. CONCLUSION: In this consecutive series of patients with AF, early recurrence in the second or third month after the PFA procedure was associated with a high risk of late recurrence. Thus, blanking period could be redefined as 1 month after PFA.

Recurrence pattern and its risk factors in patients with resected pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma - A retrospective analysis of 272 patients.

BACKGROUND: The aim of this study was to investigate the patterns of recurrence and their associated risk factors in patients who underwent resection for pancreatic carcinoma. METHODS: This retrospective study included 272 patients, who underwent Ro/R1-resection of PDAC from 2005 to 2020 at the University Hospital Erlangen. Risk factors for different recurrence patterns and the prognostic value of recurrence pattern on the overall survival after recurrence were evaluated. RESULTS: 61 % of the patients experienced recurrence, mostly within the first 12 postoperative months (62 %) and in the form of metastases (87 %). The median overall survival from recurrence was 9.2 months. The preoperative absence of diabetes and the presence of lymph node metastasis were independent risk factors for recurrence and a preoperative CA19-9 exceeding 97 U/ml for early recurrence. Additionally, lymph node metastases were associated with a higher risk of metastatic recurrence. Early recurrence, but not the site of recurrence, was identified as an independent prognostic factor for worse overall survival from recurrence. CONCLUSION: The occurrence of recurrence and especially of early and metastatic recurrence are associated with a worse overall survival. Patients lacking preoperative diabetes, having high preoperative CA19-9 values and lymph node metastases are particularly at risk for (early) recurrence.

Development of an artificial intelligence-based model to predict early recurrence of neuroendocrine liver metastasis after resection.

PURPOSE: We sought to develop an artificial intelligence (AI)-based model to predict early recurrence (ER) after curative-intent resection of neuroendocrine liver metastases (NELMs). METHODS: Patients with NELM who underwent resection were identified from a multi-institutional database. ER was defined as recurrence within 12 months of surgery. Different AI-based models were developed to predict ER using 10 clinicopathologic factors. RESULTS: Overall, 473 patients with NELM were included. Among 284 patients with recurrence (60.0%), 118 patients (41.5%) developed an ER. An ensemble AI model demonstrated the highest area under receiver operating characteristic curves of 0.763 and 0.716 in the training and testing cohorts, respectively. Maximum diameter of the primary neuroendocrine tumor, NELM radiologic tumor burden score, and bilateral liver involvement were the factors most strongly associated with risk of NELM ER. Patients predicted to develop ER had worse 5-year recurrence-free survival and overall survival (21.4% vs 37.1% [P = .002] and 61.6% vs 90.3% [P = .03], respectively) than patients not predicted to recur. An easy-to-use tool was made available online: (https://altaf-pawlik-nelm-earlyrecurrence-calculator.streamlit.app/). CONCLUSION: An AI-based model demonstrated excellent discrimination to predict ER of NELM after resection. The model may help identify patients who can benefit the most from curative-intent resection, risk stratify patients according to prognosis, as well as guide tailored surveillance and treatment decisions including consideration of nonsurgical treatment options.

Stem cell-like circulating tumor cells identified by Pep@MNP and their clinical significance in pancreatic cancer metastasis.

Objective: The circulating tumor cells (CTCs) could be captured by the peptide functionalized magnetic nanoparticles (Pep@MNP) detection system in pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC). CTCs and the CXCR4 expression were detected to explore their clinical significance. The CXCR4+ CTCs, this is highly metastatic-prone stem cell-like subsets of CTCs (HM-CTCs), were found to be associated with the early recurrence and metastasis of PDAC. Methods: CTCs were captured by Pep@MNP. CTCs were identified via immunofluorescence with CD45, cytokeratin antibodies, and the CXCR4 positive CTCs were assigned to be HM-CTCs. Results: The over-expression of CXCR4 could promote the migration of pancreatic cancer cell in vitro and in vivo. In peripheral blood (PB), CTCs were detected positive in 79.0% of all patients (49/62, 9 (0-71)/2mL), among which 63.3% patients (31/49, 3 (0-23)/2mL) were HM-CTCs positive. In portal vein blood (PVB), CTCs were positive in 77.5% of patients (31/40, 10 (0-40)/2mL), and 67.7% of which (21/31, 4 (0-15)/2mL) were HM-CTCs positive CTCs enumeration could be used as diagnostic biomarker of pancreatic cancer (AUC = 0.862), and the combination of CTCs positive and CA19-9 increase shows improved diagnostic accuracy (AUC = 0.963). in addition, PVB HM-CTCs were more accurate to predict the early recurrence and liver metastasis than PB HM-CTCs (AUC 0.825 vs. 0.787 and 0.827 vs. 0.809, respectively). Conclusions: The CTCs identified by Pep@MNP detection system could be used as diagnostic and prognostic biomarkers of PDAC patients. We identified and defined the CXCR4 over-expressed CTC subpopulation as highly metastatic-prone CTCs, which was proved to identify patients who were prone to suffering from early recurrence and metastasis.

Validation of a novel BCM model for recurrence risk prediction after mucosectomy of colorectal lateral spreading tumors in a European cohort.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Piecemeal endoscopic mucosal resection (pEMR) is the best approach to resect large lateral spreading tumors (LST, > 20 mm width). However, it is associated with early recurrence (ER) and late recurrence (LR). This study aims to assess the risk factors associated with ER and LR and to validate different predictive scores (SMSA, SERT, and BCM) in identifying the risk of ER and LR after LST resected by pEMR in a European cohort. METHODS: Retrospective observational cohort study, based on a prospectively collected database, of large LST submitted to pEMR. RESULTS: A total of 108 patients were included in the study and the incidence rates of ER and LR were 22 % and 8 %, respectively. The lesion's size, SERT, and BCM scores were independent predictor factors of ER (p-value < 0.05), while the lesion's site and BCM score were independent predictor factors of LR (p-value < 0.05). For the prediction of ER, the SERT score (cut-off > 1) presented the highest AUROC (0.758 vs 0.697 from BCM and 0.647 from SMSA). Regarding LR, the BCM model (cut-off > 2) presented the highest AUROC (0.817 vs 0.708 from SERT and 0.691 from SMSA). CONCLUSIONS: We present the first external validation of the three scores mentioned in an European cohort. SERT and BCM scores had an acceptable performance in predicting ER and LR. However, the BCM model was the only score that proved to be an independent predictor of both ER and LR, proving to be valuable for both applications.

Quality of lymph node dissection and early recurrence in robotic versus thoracoscopic lobectomy for stage N1-2 non-small cell lung cancer: Eleven-year real-world data from a high-volume center.

BACKGROUND: The efficacy of lymph node dissection (LND) and oncological outcomes of robot-assisted (RL) versus video-assisted thoracoscopic lobectomy (VL) for non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) with nodal involvement remains controversial. This study aims to compare LND quality and early recurrence (ER) rate between RL and VL for stage N1-2 NSCLC patients based on eleven-year real-world data from a high-volume center. METHODS: Pathologic stage IIB-IIIB (T1-3N1-2) NSCLC patients undergoing RL or VL in Shanghai Chest Hospital from 2010 to 2021 were retrospectively reviewed from a prospectively maintained database. Propensity-score matching (PSM, 1:4 RL versus VL) was performed to mitigate baseline differences. LND quality was evaluated by adequate (≥16) LND and nodal upstaging rates. ER was defined as recurrence occurring within 24 months post-surgery. RESULTS: Out of 1578 cases reviewed, PSM yielded 200 RL and 800 VL cases. Without compromising perioperative outcomes, RL assessed more N1 and N2 LNs and N1 stations, and led to higher incidences of adequate LND (58.5 % vs. 42.0 %, p < 0.001) and nodal upstaging (p = 0.026), compared to VL. Notably, RL improved perioperative outcomes for patients undergoing adequate LND than VL. Finally, RL notably reduced ER rate (22.0 % vs. 29.6 %, p = 0.032), especially LN ER rate (15.0 % vs. 21.5 %, p = 0.041), and prolonged disease-free survival (DFS; hazard ratio = 0.837, p = 0.040) compared with VL. Further subgroup analysis of ER and DFS within the cN1-2-stage cohort verified this survival benefit. CONCLUSIONS: RL surpasses VL in enhancing LND quality, reducing ER rates, and improving perioperative outcomes when adequate LND is performed for stage N1-2 NSCLC patients.

Preoperative and postoperative predictive models of early recurrence for colorectal liver metastases following chemotherapy and curative-intent one-stage hepatectomy.

INTRODUCTION: Accurate prediction of patients at risk for early recurrence (ER) among patients with colorectal liver metastases (CRLM) following preoperative chemotherapy and hepatectomy remains limited. METHODS: Patients with CRLM who received chemotherapy prior to undergoing curative-intent resection between 2000 and 2020 were identified from an international multi-institutional database. Multivariable Cox regression analysis was used to assess clinicopathological factors associated with ER, and an online calculator was developed and validated. RESULTS: Among 768 patients undergoing preoperative chemotherapy and curative-intent resection, 128 (16.7 %) patients had ER. Multivariable Cox analysis demonstrated that Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group Performance status ≥1 (HR 2.09, 95%CI 1.46-2.98), rectal cancer (HR 1.95, 95%CI 1.35-2.83), lymph node metastases (HR 2.39, 95%CI 1.60-3.56), mutated Kirsten rat sarcoma oncogene status (HR 1.95, 95%CI 1.25-3.02), increase in tumor burden score during chemotherapy (HR 1.51, 95%CI 1.03-2.24), and bilateral metastases (HR 1.94, 95%CI 1.35-2.79) were independent predictors of ER in the preoperative setting. In the postoperative model, in addition to the aforementioned factors, tumor regression grade was associated with higher hazards of ER (HR 1.91, 95%CI 1.32-2.75), while receipt of adjuvant chemotherapy was associated with lower likelihood of ER (HR 0.44, 95%CI 0.30-0.63). The discriminative accuracy of the preoperative (training: c-index: 0.77, 95%CI 0.72-0.81; internal validation: c-index: 0.79, 95%CI 0.75-0.82) and postoperative (training: c-index: 0.79, 95%CI 0.75-0.83; internal validation: c-index: 0.81, 95%CI 0.77-0.84) models was favorable (https://junkawashima.shinyapps.io/CRLMfollwingchemotherapy/). CONCLUSIONS: Patient-, tumor- and treatment-related characteristics in the preoperative and postoperative setting were utilized to develop an online, easy-to-use risk calculator for ER following resection of CRLM.

Post recurrence survival in early versus late period and its prognostic factors in rectal cancer patients.

To identify factors associated with post-recurrence survival (PRS), we examined our institutional recurrence patterns following definitive resection for rectal cancer. We reviewed all patients with rectal cancer diagnosed at three hospitals in the east of Iran from 2011 to 2020. The optimal cut-off value was determined by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis to determine early recurrence. The effect of recurrence time was evaluated on PRS. 326 eligible patients with a mean ± SD age of 56 ± 12.8 years were included in this study. In a median (IQR: Inter-quartile range) follow-up time of 76 (62.2) months, 106 (32.5%) patients experienced at least any recurrence (locoregional or distant metastasis) following primary resection. The median (IQR) time from initial surgery to recurrence was 29.5 (31.2) months. Based on ROC analysis, early recurrence was specified at ≤ 29 months. However, for the patients who experienced only locoregional recurrence, 33 months was the cut-off to define early recurrence. Recurrence time and recurrence management were both significant variables on PRS. Moreover, TNM staging was significantly associated with early recurrence (P = 0.003). In this research, recurrence time, recurrence management and TNM staging were found to be correlated with PRS.

Mac-2 binding protein glycosylation isomer as a novel predictor of early recurrence after resection for hepatocellular carcinoma.

PURPOSE: Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) frequently recurs after radical resection, resulting in a poor prognosis. This study assessed the prognostic value of Mac-2 binding protein glycosylation isomer (M2BPGi) for early recurrence (ER) in patients with HCC. METHODS: Patients who underwent radical resection for HCC between 2015 and 2021. HCC recurrence within one year after curative resection was defined as ER. RESULTS: The 150 patients were divided into two groups: non-ER (116, 77.3%) and ER (34, 22.7%). The ER group had a lower overall survival rate (p < 0.0001) and significantly higher levels of M2BPGi (1.06 vs. 2.74 COI, p < 0.0001) than the non-ER group. High M2BPGi levels (odds ratio [OR] 1.78, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.31-2.41, p < 0.0001) and a large tumor size (OR 1.31, 95% CI, 1.05-1.63; p = 0.0184) were identified as independent predictors of ER. M2BPGi was the best predictor of ER according to a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis (area under the ROC curve 0.82, p < 0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: M2BPGi can predict ER after surgery and is useful for risk stratification in patients with HCC.

Establishing and Externally Validating a Hemoglobin, Albumin, Lymphocyte, and Platelet (HALP) Score-Based Nomogram for Predicting Early Recurrence in BCLC Stage 0/A Hepatocellular Carcinoma Patients After Radical Liver Resection: A Multi-Center Study.

Purpose: Early recurrence (ER) is associated with poor prognosis in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). In this study, we developed and externally validated a nomogram based on the hemoglobin, albumin, lymphocytes, and platelets (HALP) score to predict ER for patients with BCLC stage 0/A HCC who underwent radical liver resection. Patients and Methods: A total of 808 BCLC stage 0/A HCC patients from six hospitals were included in this study, and they were assigned to a training cohort (n = 500) and an external validation cohort (n = 308). We used univariate and multivariate Cox regression analysis to identify the independent risk factors for disease-free survival (DFS). We also established and externally validated a nomogram based on these risk predictors. The nomogram was evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), the concordance index (C-index), the calibration curve, decision curve analysis (DCA), and Kaplan‒Meier analysis. Results: Multivariate COX regression showed that HBV DNA ≥10,000 IU/mL (P < 0.001), HALP score ≤38.20 (P < 0.001), tumor size (P = 0.003), clinically significant portal hypertension (P = 0.001), Edmondson-Steiner grade (III-IV) (P = 0.007), satellite nodules (P < 0.001), and MVI (P = 0.001) were independent risk factors for post-operative tumor recurrence. The AUC of our nomogram for predicting the 2-year and 5-year DFS was 0.756 and 0.750, respectively, in the training cohort and 0.764 and 0.705, respectively, in the external validation cohort. We divided the patients into low-, intermediate- and high-risk groups according to the risk score calculated by the nomogram. There were statistically significant differences in the DFS and overall survival (OS) among the three groups of patients (P < 0.001). Conclusion: We developed and externally validated a new nomogram, which is accurate and can predict ER in BCLC stage 0/A HCC patients after curative liver resection.

Delta-radiomics Analysis Based on Multi-phase Contrast-enhanced MRI to Predict Early Recurrence in Hepatocellular Carcinoma After Percutaneous Thermal Ablation.

RATIONALE AND OBJECTIVES: It is critical to predict early recurrence (ER) after percutaneous thermal ablation (PTA) for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). We aimed to develop and validate a delta-radiomics nomogram based on multi-phase contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) to preoperatively predict ER of HCC after PTA. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We retrospectively enrolled 164 patients with HCC and divided them into training, temporal validation, and other-scanner validation cohorts (n = 110, 29, and 25, respectively). The volumes of interest of the intratumoral and/or peritumoral regions were delineated on preoperative multi-phase MR images. Original radiomics features were extracted from each phase, and delta-radiomics features were calculated. Logistic regression was used to train the corresponding radiomics models. The clinical and radiological characteristics were evaluated and combined to establish a clinical-radiological model. A fusion model comprising the best radiomics scores and clinical-radiological risk factors was constructed and presented as a nomogram. The performance of each model was evaluated and recurrence-free survival (RFS) was assessed. RESULTS: Child-Pugh grade B, high-risk tumor location, and an incomplete/absent tumor capsule were independent predictors of ER. The optimal radiomics model comprised 12 delta-radiomics features with areas under the curve (AUCs) of 0.834, 0.795, and 0.769 in the training, temporal validation, and other-scanner validation cohorts, respectively. The nomogram showed the best predictive performance with AUCs as 0.893, 0.854, and 0.827 in the three datasets. There was a statistically significant difference in RFS between the risk groups calculated using the delta-radiomics model and nomogram. CONCLUSIONS: The nomogram combined with the delta-radiomic score and clinical-radiological risk factors could non-invasively predict ER of HCC after PTA.