The evolution of habitat quality and its response to land use change in the coastal China, 1985-2020.

The coastal region of China is a typical area characterized by a developed economy, yet it faces prominent resource and environmental issues, and it is of great significance to quantitatively assess the ecological effects resulting from rapid urbanization and industrialization. Based on the land use data from 1985 to 2020, and the InVEST modeling and relevant spatial data sources, the paper analyzed the spatial and temporal changes in land use cover and habitat quality in the coastal China over the past 30 years. The results show that: 1) land use cover in the coastal China has changed significantly during the study period, with the area of cultivated land continuing to decrease and construction land expanding; 2) the trend of habitat quality degradation in was obvious, with the area of low-value habitat quality continuing to increase. Spatially, they were mainly located in the three major urban agglomerations undergoing rapid industrialization and urbanization; 3) The average degradation of habitats increased significantly between 1990 and 2000 and 2010-2020. The rate of change in areas with different degradation levels from 1990 to 2000 was higher than in other periods. The low-value areas of habitat degradation are mainly located in hilly and mountainous regions. 4) The transfer of habitat grades was generally characterized by a shift from high grade to low grade. This trend of conversion was due to the large-scale occupation of cultivated land by construction land and the long-term encroachment of ecological land by cultivated land. For future development, it is recommended to improve the land use regulation system based on the principles of sustainable development, with a particular focus on habitat protection. Additionally, efforts should be made to strengthen the development of ecological agriculture, carry out ecological protection and restoration, and improve the mechanisms for coordinating land and sea management.

Anthropogenic and climatic impacts on historic sediment, carbon, and phosphorus accumulation rates using 210Pbex and 137Cs in a sub-watershed linked to Zarivar Lake, Iran.

To estimate a watershed's response to climate change, it is crucial to understand how human activities and climatic extremes have interacted over time. Over the last century, the Zarivar Lake watershed, Iran, has been subjected to various anthropogenic activates, including deforestation and inappropriate land-management practices alongside the implementation of conservation measures like check dams. To understand the effects of these changes on the magnitude of sediment, organic carbon (OC), and phosphorus supplies in a small sub-watershed connected to the lake over the last century, a lake sediment core was dated using 210Pbex and 137Cs as geochronometers. The average mass accumulation rate (MAR), organic carbon accumulation rates (OCAR), and particulate phosphorus accumulation rates (PPAR) of the sediment core were determined to be 6498 ± 2475, 205 ± 85, and 8.9 ± 3.3 g m-2 year-1, respectively. Between the late 1970s and early 1980s, accumulation rates were significantly higher than their averages at 7940 ± 3120, 220 ± 60, and 12.0 ± 2.8 g m-2 year-1 respectively. During this period, the watershed underwent extensive deforestation (12%) on steep slopes, coinciding with higher mean annual precipitations (more than double). Conversely, after 2009, when check dams were installed in the sub-watershed, the sediment load to the lake became negligible. The results of this research indicate that anthropogenic activities had a pronounced effect on MAR, OCAR, and PPAR, causing them to fluctuate from negligible amounts to values twice the averages over the last century, amplified by climatic factors. These results imply that implementing climate-smart watershed management strategies, such as constructing additional check dams and terraces, reinforcing restrictions on deforestation, and minimum tillage practices, can facilitate protection of lacustrine ecosystems under accelerating climate change conditions.

Bayesian spatio-temporal modeling to assess the effect of land-use changes on the incidence of Cutaneous Leishmaniasis in the Brazilian Amazon.

Cutaneous Leishmaniasis (CL) is a vector-borne disease caused by a protozoan of the genus Leishmania and is considered one of the most important neglected tropical diseases. The Brazilian Amazon Forest harbors one of the highest diversity of Leishmania parasites and vectors and is one of the main focuses of the disease in the Americas. Previous studies showed that some types of anthropogenic disturbances have affected the abundance and distribution of CL vectors and hosts; however, few studies have thoroughly investigated the influence of different classes of land cover and land-use changes on the disease transmission risk. Here, we quantify the effect of land use and land-cover changes on the incidence of CL in all municipalities within the Brazilian Amazon Forest, from 2001 to 2017. We used a structured spatiotemporal Bayesian model to assess the effect of forest cover, agriculture, livestock, extractivism, and- deforestation on CL incidence, accounting for confounding variables such as population, climate, socioeconomic, and spatiotemporal random effects. We found that the increased risk of CL was associated with deforestation, especially modulated by a positive interaction between forest cover and livestock. Landscapes with ongoing deforestation for extensive cattle ranching are typically found in municipalities within the Amazon Frontier, where a high relative risk for CL was also identified. These findings provide valuable insights into developing effective public health policies and land-use planning to ensure healthier landscapes for people.

A social-ecological approach to support equitable land use decision-making.

Human-driven land use change can result in unequitable outcomes in the provision and appropriation of ecosystem services (ES). To better address equity-related effects of land use change in decision-making, analyses of land use and ES changes under different land use management alternatives should incorporate ecological and social information and take a disaggregated approach to ES analysis. Because such approaches are still scarce in the literature, we present a generalized social-ecological approach to support equitable land use decision-making (in terms of process and outcomes) and an example of its application to a case study in southwestern Ethiopia. We propose a six-step approach that combines scenario planning with equity-focused, disaggregated analyses of ES. Its application in our study area made equity-related effects of land use change explicit through the recognition of different beneficiary groups, value types, and spatial locations. We recommend the application of our approach in other contexts, especially in the Global South.

From chocolate to palm oil: The future of Indonesia's cocoa plantations.

Indonesia is the world's third largest cocoa producer, but production is decreasing since 2011. We revisited cocoa farmers for an environmental assessment in Luwu Timur, Sulawesi, 7 months after a socio-economic survey on cocoa certification outcomes and observed many cocoa plantations being converted into oil palm and maize. Including our field data as well as secondary data on commodity prices and yields, we outline reasons for cocoa conversion, potential consequences for biodiversity, and assess the future outlook for the Indonesian cocoa sector. Low cocoa productivity, volatile cocoa prices and higher revenue for oil palm, among others, drive land-use change. If shade trees are cut during cocoa conversion, it may have negative implications for biodiversity. Solutions to low soil fertility, omnipresent pests and diseases, and stable producer prices are needed to increase profitability of cocoa and prevent conversion of cocoa agroforests to oil palm monocultures.

Rethinking Urban Water Management Through Drivers-Pressures-States-Impacts-Responses Framework Application in Chennai, India.

Cities suffering water scarcity are projected to increase in the following decades. However, the application of standardized indicator frameworks for assessing urban water resource management problems is on an early stage. India is expected to have the highest urban population facing water scarcity in the world by 2050. In this study, the authors assess how the Drivers-Pressures-States-Impacts-Responses framework, a causal framework adopted by the European Environment Agency, can contribute to evaluate water management challenges in cities and apply it to Chennai, India´s fourth-largest urban agglomeration. The framework proved to be a helpful tool for the evaluation of water management challenges in cities by disentangling relationships between environmental indicators and structuring dispersed data that allows a better understanding for policymakers. The main drivers identified in Chennai were population growth and economic development which generated impacts such as loss of aquatic ecosystems, low water table, low water quality, and reduction of biodiversity and human health. As a response, better urban planning, projects for new water infrastructure, and water bodies restoration have been implemented. Nevertheless, Chennai keeps facing difficulties to achieve proper water management. The severe hit of the COVID-19 pandemic on the Indian economy and its future management will be key for achievements related to water management.

Multi-scenario prediction and attribution analysis of carbon storage of ecological system in the Huaihe River Basin, China.

Evaluating the impact of large-scale human activities on carbon storage through land use changes is of growing interest in terrestrial ecosystem assessments. The Huaihe River Basin, a vital Chinese grain production area, has undergone marked land use changes amid socio-economic acceleration. Evaluating the impacts of land use change on carbon storage and future carbon sequestration is imperative for regional ecosystem sustainability and Chinese food security, simultaneously, furnishing data support to regional land use planning and decision-making processes. Nonetheless, the mechanisms linking land use changes to carbon storage and the future carbon reservoir responses remain unclear. We utilized a multi-source dataset and representative scenarios, integrating PLUS, InVEST models, and Geodetector to assess land use change impacts on carbon storage in the Huaihe River Basin (2000-2030). The data indicates the following: (1) from 2000 to 2020, cultivated land decreased by 28,344.69 km2, construction land increased by 26,914.56 km2, and other land types changed little. (2) Land use change resulted a carbon loss of 1.17 × 108 t, primarily due to the expansion of construction land. (3) All four simulation scenarios exhibited diminished carbon storage relative to 2020, with the economic development scenario recording the lowest at 4.98 × 109 t and the ecological protection scenario the highest at 5.06 × 109 t. (4) Elevation predominantly drives carbon storage changes, with its interaction with NPP having the greatest impact. The factors synergistically enhance their explanatory power. The research provides a scientific basis for strategies aimed at augmenting regional carbon sequestration and refining low-carbon land management, safeguarding ecosystem stability.

Differential contribution of microbial and plant-derived organic matter to soil organic carbon sequestration over two decades of natural revegetation and cropping.

Both natural revegetation and cropping have great impact on long-term soil carbon (C) sequestration, yet the differences in their underlying mechanisms remain unclear. In this study, we investigated trends in soil organic C (SOC) accumulation during natural revegetation (VR) and cropping processes over 24 years, and explored the contributions of microbial necromass and plant-derived C to SOC formation and their primary controls. Over the course of 24 years of land use/cover change (LUCC) from 1995, SOC content exhibited a more substantial increase in VR (0.31 g kg-1 a-1) than in cropland (0.14 g kg-1 a-1) during Stage II (>10 y after LUCC), and recalcitrant organic carbon explained more of the SOC variation than easily oxidizable carbon. The higher SOC content in VR was attributed to a greater contribution of plant-derived C (14-28 %) than that in cropland (3-11 %) to SOC and a consistently lower ratio of cinnamyl (C)- to vanillyl (V)-type phenols in VR across all the assessed years. Although there were higher proportion of microbial necromass of SOC (41-84 %) in cropland than in VR, the differences were not significant. The dominant bacterial phylum of Chloroflexi and soil nitrogen content were the primary biotic and abiotic factors regulating microbial-derived and plant-derived C in both cropland and VR. However, soil phosphorus content was the main factor in cropland, while climatic factors such as mean annual precipitation were more important in VR. These results provided evidence that long-term natural revegetation enhanced SOC sequestration by greater contribution of plant-derived C to SOC formation compared to cropping. These findings underscore the synergistic contribution of vegetation and microorganisms to long-term SOC sequestration, offering insights into the different mechanisms of carbon formation during VR and cropping processes, and providing support for optimizing land management to achieve global carbon neutrality goals.

Supplying the ethanol demand for 2030 in Brazil as a land-based climate change mitigation alternative: Implications on greenhouse gases emissions.

Transitioning from a fossil-based to a bio-based economy is crucial to climate action and achieving neutrality in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Biofuel production is an essential land-based GHG mitigation alternative. However, it raises concerns about biodiversity conservation, competition with food production, and net GHG emissions associated with direct land-use change (dLUC). This study aims to assess how the location and conversion routes influence GHG emissions for sugarcane expansion in Brazil to supply ethanol demand projections for 2030. A consistent and significant reduction in GHG emissions is achievable by implementing a strategy that prioritizes the spatial distribution for ethanol biorefinery expansions based on georeferenced life cycle emissions, including dLUC emissions associated with sugarcane production. Because of conservative zoning for sugarcane expansion, dLUC emissions are not an overriding factor, representing less than 9.1 % of the total GHG mitigation potential. Despite that, accounting for georeferenced dLUC emissions when prioritizing expansion facilities leads to spatial differences. Regarding conversion routes and land requirements, using cellulosic biorefineries could meet future projected demand based on sugarcane production from 3.1 million hectares, mostly in currently degraded pastureland. Conventional refineries would require 5.5 million hectares to meet the same demand of 71 billion liters. Despite the 77 % higher land demand to produce the same volume of ethanol, conventional refineries with straw recovery could be considered if electricity generation is a priority. This study illustrates how Brazil can achieve GHG mitigation targets while attending to future energy demand and protecting areas with high biodiversity.

Isotopic and trace element record of changing metal source contributions to tropical freshwater Lake Naivasha (Kenya).

Lake Naivasha, Kenya's second-largest freshwater body is a wetland of international ecological importance and currently subjected to unprecedented anthropogenic influence. The study aims to chronologically reconstruct the main human activities and background weathering reactions that govern metal mobilizations into the lake and their potentially adverse effects on its ecological status. We combine extensive geochemical analyses (major, trace elements, Zn-Pb isotope ratios) in a dated lake sediment record and catchment rocks with remote sensing techniques. Downcore geochemical variations reflect natural ecosystem destabilizations occurring as early as the first half of the 20th century. These coincide with changes towards less radiogenic Pb-isotope values which persist towards the top of the core (206Pb/207Pb = 1.243 at core base ∼1843, to 206Pb/207Pb = 1.225 at ∼1978). We interpret the land-clearance for agricultural purposes on the Aberdare Range and documented early aviation activities as possible vectors of this early Pb-isotope excursion. The overlapping Pb-isotope signatures between sediment sources and anthropogenic contributions challenges a straightforward deconvolution of the two. Our conservative model calculations suggest, nevertheless, that an addition of up to ∼1.8 % Pb-gasoline influx to the total Pb flux, peaking in the 1980s is able to explain the Pb distribution trend. Homogeneous Zn-isotope compositions in sediments deposited until ∼1970s (δ66/64Zn = 0.216-0.225 ‰) do not follow major hydro-climatic events or anthropogenic forcing but likely reflect lake-specific natural cycling. Subsequent higher variations to both heavier (up to δ66/64Zn = 0.242 ± 0.005 ‰) and lighter (down to δ66/64Zn = 0.184 ± 0.003 ‰) Zn-isotope values are contemporaneous with intensification of large-scale horticultural industry in the catchment. Together with supporting indicators, the lighter Zn-isotope compositions in youngest analysed sediments (21st century) are attributable to increased biological productivity (algal blooms) and ongoing lake eutrophication. Our study demonstrates the applicability of the heavy metal isotope tool to reconstruct human influences on lake environments with complex geological settings such as the East African Rift System.

Assessing forest fragmentation due to land use changes from 1992 to 2023: A spatio-temporal analysis using remote sensing data.

The increasing pressures of urban development and agricultural expansion have significant implications for land use and land cover (LULC) dynamics, particularly in ecologically sensitive regions like the Murree and Kotli Sattian tehsils of the Rawalpindi district in Pakistan. This study's primary objective is to assess spatial variations within each LULC category over three decades (1992-2023) using cross-tabulation in ArcGIS to identify changes in LULC and investigates into forest fragmentation analysis using the Landscape Fragmentation Tool (LFTv2.0) to classify forest into several classes such as patch, edge, perforated, small core, medium core, and large core. Utilizing remote sensing data from Landsat 5 and Landsat 9 satellites, the research focuses on the temporal dynamics in various land classes including Coniferous Forest (CF), Evergreen Forest (EF), Arable Land (AR), Buildup Area (BU), Barren Land (BA), Water (WA), and Grassland (GL). The Support Vector Machine (SVM) classifier and ArcGIS software were employed for image processing and classification, ensuring accuracy in categorizing different land types. Our results indicate a notable reduction in forested areas, with Coniferous Forest (CF) decreasing from 363.9 km2, constituting 45.0 % of the area in 1992, to 291.5 km2 (36.0 %) in 2023, representing a total decrease of 72.4 km2. Similarly, Evergreen Forests have also seen a significant reduction, from 177.9 km2 (22.0 %) in 1992 to 99.8 km2 (12.3 %) in 2023, a decrease of 78.1 km2. The study investigates into forest fragmentation analysis using the Landscape Fragmentation Tool (LFTv2.0), revealing an increase in fragmentation and a decrease in large core forests from 20.3 % of the total area in 1992 to 7.2 % in 2023. Additionally, the patch forest area increased from 2.4 % in 1992 to 5.9 % in 2023, indicating significant fragmentation. Transition matrices and a Sankey diagram illustrate the transitions between different LULC classes, providing a comprehensive view of the dynamics of land-use changes and their implications for ecosystem services. These findings highlight the critical need for robust conservation strategies and effective land management practices. The study contributes to the understanding of LULC dynamics and forest fragmentation in the Himalayan region of Pakistan, offering insights essential for future land management and policymaking in the face of rapid environmental changes.

Exploring soil nitrogen and sulfur dynamics: implications for greenhouse gas emissions on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.

The Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change and disturbances caused by human activity. To better understand the interactions between soil nitrogen and sulfur cycles and human activities on the plateau, the distribution characteristics of soil nitrogen and sulfur density and their influencing factors for three soil layers in Machin County at depths of 0-20 cm, 0-100 cm, and 0-180 cm are discussed in this paper. The results indicated that at depths of 0-180 cm, soil nitrogen density in Machin County varied between 1.36 and 16.85 kg/m2, while sulfur density ranged from 0.37 to 4.61 kg/m2. The effects of three factors-geological background, land use status, and soil type-on soil nitrogen and sulfur density were all highly significant (p < 0.01). Specifically, natural factors such as soil type and geological background, along with anthropogenic factors including land use practices and grazing intensity, were identified as decisive in causing spatial variations in soil nitrogen and sulfur density. Machin County on the Tibetan Plateau exhibits natural nitrogen and sulfur sinks; However, it is crucial to monitor the emissions of N2O and SO2 into the atmosphere from areas with high external nitrogen and sulfur inputs and low fertility retention capacities, such as bare land. On this basis, changes in the spatial and temporal scales of the nitrogen and sulfur cycles in soils and their source-sink relationships remain the focus of future research.

Montane evergreen forest deforestation for banana plantations decreased soil organic carbon and total nitrogen stores to alarming levels.

Forest conversion to agricultural land has been shown to deplete soil organic carbon (SOC) and soil total nitrogen (STN) stocks. However, research on how soil properties respond to forest conversion to shifting cultivation has produced conflicting results. The conflicting findings suggest that the agricultural system may influence the response of SOC and STN to forest conversion to agriculture, depending on the presence of vegetative cover throughout the year. Due to the unique characteristics of montane evergreen forests (MEF) and banana plantations (BP), SOC and STN response to MEF conversion to BP may differ from existing models. Nevertheless, research on how soil properties are affected by MEF conversion to BP is scarce globally. In order to fill this research gap, the goal of this study was to evaluate how much deforestation for BP affects SOC, STN, and soil quality by analysing these soil parameters in MEF and BP fields down to 1-m depth, using standard profile-based procedures. Contrary to the specified hypothesis that SOC and STN losses would be restricted to the upper 20-cm soil layer, SOC losses were extended to the 40-cm depth layer and STN losses to the 60-cm depth layer. The soils lost 18.56 Mg ha - 1 (37%) of SOC from the upper 20 cm and 33.15 Mg ha - 1 (37%) from the upper 40 cm, following MEF conversion to BP. In terms of STN, the upper 20, 40, and 60 cm lost 2.98 (43%), 6.62 (47%), and 8.30 Mg ha - 1 (44%), respectively. Following MEF conversion to BP, the SOC stratification ratio decreased by 49%, implying a decline in soil quality. Massive exportation of nutrients, reduced C inputs due to complete removal of the arboreal component and crop residues, the erodibility of the soils on the study area's steep hillslopes, and the potential for banana plantations to increase throughfall kinetic energy, and splash erosion through canopy dripping are thought to be the leading causes of SOC and STN losses. More research is needed to identify the extent to which each cause influences SOC and STN losses.

[Prediction of Land Use and Habitat Quality in Harbin City Based on the PLUS- InVEST Model].

Analyzing the spatiotemporal evolution of urban land use and habitat quality can reveal the correlation between land use and habitat quality, aiding in rational urban land policies and high-quality ecological environment development. This study was based on land use transition matrices and an Intensity-Migration （IM） model to analyze the changes in land use in Harbin from 2000 to 2020. It combined the PLUS model to explore the driving factors of land use expansion for various land types and predicted land use scenarios for 2030 under natural development, ecological protection, farmland protection, and urban development scenarios. Finally, the InVEST model was used to complete the habitat quality analysis. The results indicated： ① The dominant land use types in Harbin were cropland, forest land, and grassland. From 2000 to 2020, there was a significant tendency of conversion into grassland, cropland, forest land, and artificial surfaces, with noticeable changes in land use intensity. Water bodies, bare land, and wetland types showed less conversion and tended to be restrictive. ② Elevation was the primary factor influencing the expansion of grassland, cropland, forest land, bare land, wetland, and water bodies. Socioeconomic factors were the main factor affecting the expansion of artificial surfaces. ③ Simulation of land use types in Harbin for 2030 under the four scenarios showed an increase in forest land area and a decrease in grassland area, with insignificant changes in wetland, water bodies, and bare land areas. Except for in the ecological protection scenario, the area of artificial surfaces increased, whereas cropland decreased. ④ Overall, habitat quality in Harbin improved from 2000 to 2020. ⑤ In 2030, the spatial pattern of habitat quality in Harbin remained consistent across all scenarios, showing an overall improvement in habitat quality. Under the ecological protection scenario, areas with low and medium habitat quality decreased, whereas areas with higher habitat quality increased, indicating a relatively significant improvement in habitat quality. The research results provide a scientific basis and insights for the development of ecological civilization and urban planning and construction in Harbin.

[Spatio-temporal Pattern of Ecosystem Service Value Evolution in the Yihe River Basin in the Context of Land Use Change].

In this study, the modified equivalent factor method was applied to account for the long time series ecosystem service value （ESV） of the Yihe River Basin from 1975 to 2020 in the context of land use change, and the cold hot spot analysis and topographic position analysis methods were introduced to explore the characteristics of its spatial pattern. The results showed that： ① From 1975 to 2020, the land use type of the Yihe River Basin was dominated by arable land, and the land use changes were characterized by the rapid decrease of arable land and the continuous expansion of construction land, a slight increase in the area of forest land and grassland, a contraction of the water body area, and little change in the area of unused land. ② The modified equivalent factor method was more suitable for accounting for the ESV in the basin. From 1975 to 2020, the overall ESV of the basin showed an upward spiral trend （33.369-33.816 billion CNY）, dominated by the regulating services. The ESV of arable land was the highest with a decreasing trend, whereas the ESV of unused land was the lowest. ③ In the horizontal spatial pattern, the hot spot of ESV was near mountains and reservoirs, and the cold spot of ESV was near urban areas. In terms of vertical spatial patterns, with growing topographic gradient, vertical changes in ESV for all land use types showed an increasing trend followed by a decreasing trend. The results of the study revealed the spatial and temporal patterns of ecosystem service values in the Yihe River Basin in the context of land use change and provide a scientific basis for optimizing the land use structure and spatial pattern and enhancing ecosystem services.

Mangrove wetland recovery enhances soil carbon sequestration capacity of soil aggregates and microbial network stability in southeastern China.

Mangrove wetlands are highly productive ecosystems in tropical and subtropical coastal zones, play crucial roles in water purification, biodiversity maintenance, and carbon sequestration. Recent years have seen the implementation of pond return initiatives, which have facilitated the gradual recovery of mangrove areas in China. However, the implications of these initiatives for soil aggregate stability, microbial community structure, and network interactions remain unclear. This study assesses the impacts of converting ponds to mangroves-both in natural and artificially restored settings-on soil aggregate stability and microbial networks at typical mangrove restoration sites along China's southeastern coast. Our observations confirmed our hypothesis that pond-to-mangrove conversions resulted in an increase in the proportion of large aggregates (>0.25 mm), improved soil aggregate structural stability, and increased carbon sequestration. However, mangrove recovery led to a decrease in the abundance and diversity of soil fungi communities. In terms of co-occurrence networks, naturally restored mangrove wetlands exhibited more nodes and edges. The naturally recovered mangrove wetlands demonstrated a higher level of community symbiosis compared to those that were manually restored. Conversely, bacterial networks showed a different pattern, with significant shifts in key taxa related to carbon sequestration functions. For instance, the proportion of bacterial Desulfobacterota and fungi Basidiomycota in natural recovery mangrove increased by 15.03 % and 7.82 %, respectively, compared with that in aquaculture ponds. Soil fungi and bacteria communities, as well as carbon sequestration by aggregates, were all positively correlated with soil total carbon content (P < 0.05). Both bacterial and fungal communities contributed to soil aggregate stability. Our study highlights the complex relationships between soil microbial communities, aggregate stability, and the carbon cycle before and after land-use changes. These findings underscore the potential benefits of restoring mangrove wetlands, as such efforts can enhance carbon storage capacity and significantly contribute to climate change mitigation.

The centennial legacy of land-use change on organic carbon stocks of German agricultural soils.

Converting natural vegetation for agriculture has resulted in the loss of approximately 5% of the current global terrestrial soil organic carbon (SOC) stock to the atmosphere. Increasing the agricultural area under grassland may reverse some of these losses, but the effectiveness of such a strategy is limited by how quickly SOC recovers after conversion from cropland. Using soil data and extensive land-use histories gathered during the national German agricultural soil inventory, this study aims to answer three questions regarding agricultural land-use change (LUC): (i) how do SOC stocks change with depth following LUC; (ii) how long does it take to reach SOC equilibrium after LUC; and (iii) what is the legacy effect of historic LUC on present day SOC dynamics? By using a novel approach that substitutes space for time and accounts for differences in site properties using propensity score balancing, we determined that sites that were converted from cropland to grassland reached a SOC equilibrium level 47.3% (95% confidence interval (CI): 43.4% to 49.5%) above permanent cropland levels 83 years (95% CI: 79 to 90 years) after conversion. Meanwhile, sites converted from grassland to cropland reached a SOC equilibrium level -33.6% (95% CI: -34.1% to -33.5%) below permanent grassland levels after 180 years (95% CI: 151 to 223 years). We estimate that, over the past century, today's German agricultural soils (16.6 million ha) have gained about 40 million Mg C. Furthermore, croplands with historic LUC from grassland are losing SOC by -0.26 Mg ha-1 year-1 (10% of agricultural land) while grasslands historically converted from cropland are gaining SOC by 0.27 Mg ha-1 year-1 (18% of agricultural land). This study shows that even long-standing temperate agricultural sites likely have ongoing SOC change as a result of historical LUC.

Limited function of road verges as habitat for species connecting plant-bee networks in remnant semi-natural grasslands.

Species-rich natural and semi-natural ecosystems are under threat owing to land use change. To conserve the biodiversity associated with these ecosystems, we must identify and target conservation efforts towards functionally important species and supporting habitats that create connections between remnant patches in the landscape. Here, we use a multi-layer network approach to identify species that connect a metanetwork of plant-bee interactions in remnant semi-natural grasslands which are biodiversity hotspots in European landscapes. We investigate how these landscape connecting species, and their interactions, persist in their proposed supporting habitat, road verges, across a landscape with high human impact. We identify 11 plant taxa and nine bee species that connect semi-natural grassland patches. We find the beta diversity of these connector species to be low across road verges, indicating a poor contribution of these habitats to the landscape-scale diversity in semi-natural grasslands. We also find a significant influence of the surrounding landscape on the beta diversity of connector species and their interactions with implications for landscape-scale management. Conservation actions targeted toward species with key functional roles as connectors of fragmented ecosystems can provide cost-effective management of the diversity and functioning of threatened ecosystems.This article is part of the theme issue 'Connected interactions: enriching food web research by spatial and social interactions'.

Modelling Lassa virus dynamics in West African Mastomys natalensis and the impact of human activities.

Lassa fever is a West African rodent-borne viral haemorrhagic fever that kills thousands of people a year, with 100 000 to 300 000 people a year probably infected by Lassa virus (LASV). The main reservoir of LASV is the Natal multimammate mouse, Mastomys natalensis. There is reported asynchrony between peak infection in the rodent population and peak Lassa fever risk among people, probably owing to differing seasonal contact rates. Here, we developed a susceptible-infected-recovered ([Formula: see text])-based model of LASV dynamics in its rodent host, M. natalensis, with a persistently infected class and seasonal birthing to test the impact of changes to seasonal birthing in the future owing to climate and land use change. Our simulations suggest shifting rodent birthing timing and synchrony will alter the peak of viral prevalence, changing risk to people, with viral dynamics mainly stable in adults and varying in the young, but with more infected individuals. We calculate the time-average basic reproductive number, [Formula: see text], for this infectious disease system with periodic changes to population sizes owing to birthing using a time-average method and with a sensitivity analysis show four key parameters: carrying capacity, adult mortality, the transmission parameter among adults and additional disease-induced mortality impact the maintenance of LASV in M. natalensis most, with carrying capacity and adult mortality potentially changeable owing to human activities and interventions.

Dynamic shifts of functional diversity through climate-resilient strategies and farmland restoration in a mountain protected area.

Land-use land-cover (LULC) change contributes to major ecological impacts, particularly in areas undergoing land abandonment, inducing modifications on habitat structure and species distributions. Alternative land-use policies are potential solutions to alleviate the negative impacts of contemporary tendencies of LULC change on biodiversity. This work analyzes these tendencies in the Montesinho Natural Park (Portugal), an area representative of European abandoned mountain rural areas. We built ecological niche models for 226 species of vertebrates (amphibians, reptiles, birds, and mammals) and vascular plants, using a consensus modelling approach available in the R package 'biomod2'. We projected the models to contemporary (2018) and future (2050) LULC scenarios, under four scenarios aiming to secure relevant ecosystem services and biodiversity conservation for 2050: an afforestation and a rewilding scenario, focused on climate-smart management strategies, and a farmland and an agroforestry recovery scenario, based on re-establishing human traditional activities. We quantified the influences of these scenarios on biodiversity through species habitat suitability changes for 2018-2050. We analyzed how these management strategies could influence indices of functional diversity (functional richness, functional evenness and functional dispersion) within the park. Habitat suitability changes revealed complementary patterns among scenarios. Afforestation and rewilding scenarios benefited more species adapted to habitats with low human influence, such as forests and open woodlands. The highest functional richness and dispersion was predicted for rewilding scenarios, which could improve landscape restoration and provide opportunities for the expansion and recolonization of forest areas by native species. The recovery of traditional farming and agroforestry activities results in the lowest values of functional richness, but these strategies contribute to complex landscape matrices with diversified habitats and resources. Moreover, this strategy could offer opportunities for fire suppression and increase landscape fire resistance. An integrative approach reconciling rewilding initiatives with the recovery of extensive agricultural and agroforestry activities is potentially an harmonious strategy for supporting the provision of ecosystem services while securing biodiversity conservation and functional diversity within the natural park.