A systematic review of fall prediction models for community-dwelling older adults: comparison between models based on research cohorts and models based on routinely collected data.

BACKGROUND: Prediction models can identify fall-prone individuals. Prediction models can be based on either data from research cohorts (cohort-based) or routinely collected data (RCD-based). We review and compare cohort-based and RCD-based studies describing the development and/or validation of fall prediction models for community-dwelling older adults. METHODS: Medline and Embase were searched via Ovid until January 2023. We included studies describing the development or validation of multivariable prediction models of falls in older adults (60+). Both risk of bias and reporting quality were assessed using the PROBAST and TRIPOD, respectively. RESULTS: We included and reviewed 28 relevant studies, describing 30 prediction models (23 cohort-based and 7 RCD-based), and external validation of two existing models (one cohort-based and one RCD-based). The median sample sizes for cohort-based and RCD-based studies were 1365 [interquartile range (IQR) 426-2766] versus 90 441 (IQR 56 442-128 157), and the ranges of fall rates were 5.4% to 60.4% versus 1.6% to 13.1%, respectively. Discrimination performance was comparable between cohort-based and RCD-based models, with the respective area under the receiver operating characteristic curves ranging from 0.65 to 0.88 versus 0.71 to 0.81. The median number of predictors in cohort-based final models was 6 (IQR 5-11); for RCD-based models, it was 16 (IQR 11-26). All but one cohort-based model had high bias risks, primarily due to deficiencies in statistical analysis and outcome determination. CONCLUSIONS: Cohort-based models to predict falls in older adults in the community are plentiful. RCD-based models are yet in their infancy but provide comparable predictive performance with no additional data collection efforts. Future studies should focus on methodological and reporting quality.

n-6 fatty acid biomarkers and incident atrial fibrillation: an individual participant-level pooled analysis of 11 international prospective studies.

BACKGROUND: The presence of atrial fibrillation (AF) is associated with an over 2-fold increased risk of stroke, heart failure, and cardiovascular mortality. Long chain n-6 PUFAs have been suggested to have a variety of beneficial biologic effects that may reduce AF development; however, prior studies evaluating this relationship are limited. OBJECTIVES: We prospectively evaluated the association between circulating levels of linoleic acid (LA) and arachidonic acid (AA) with incident AF. METHODS: We used participant-level data from a global consortium of 11 prospective cohort studies with measurements of LA and AA in adults (aged ≥18 y). Participating studies conducted de novo analyses using a prespecified analytical plan with harmonized definitions for exposures, outcomes, covariates, and subgroups. Associations were pooled using inverse-variance weighted meta-analysis. RESULTS: Among 41,335 participants, 6173 incident cases of AF were ascertained, with median follow-up time of 14 y. In multivariable analysis, per interquintile range (difference between the 10th and 90th percentiles for each fatty acid), circulating n-6 levels were not associated with incident AF. For LA, the hazard ratio per interquintile range was 0.96 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.89, 1.04), and for AA, 1.02 (95% CI: 0.94, 1.10), with little evidence of heterogeneity between cohorts. Associations were similarly nonsignificant across subgroups of age, race, and biomarker fraction. CONCLUSIONS: Biomarkers of n-6 fatty acids including LA and AA are not associated with incident AF. These findings suggest that overall effects of n-6 PUFAs on influencing AF development are neutral.

Risk prediction models for type 2 diabetes using either fasting plasma glucose or HbA1c in Chinese, Malay, and Indians: Results from three multi-ethnic Singapore cohorts.

AIMS: To assess three well-established type 2 diabetes (T2D) risk prediction models based on fasting plasma glucose (FPG) in Chinese, Malays, and Indians, and to develop simplified risk models based on either FPG or HbA1c. METHODS: We used a prospective multiethnic Singapore cohort to evaluate the established models and develop simplified models. 6,217 participants without T2D at baseline were included, with an average follow-up duration of 8.3 years. The simplified risk models were validated in two independent multiethnic Singapore cohorts (N = 12,720). RESULTS: The established risk models had moderate-to-good discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic curves, AUCs 0.762 - 0.828) but a lack of fit (P-values < 0.05). Simplified risk models that included fewer predictors (age, BMI, systolic blood pressure, triglycerides, and HbA1c or FPG) showed good discrimination in all cohorts (AUCs ≥ 0.810), and sufficiently captured differences between the ethnic groups. While recalibration improved fit the simplified models in validation cohorts, there remained evidence of miscalibration in Chinese (p ≤ 0.012). CONCLUSIONS: Simplified risk models including HbA1c or FPG had good discrimination in predicting incidence of T2D in three major Asian ethnic groups. Risk functions with HbA1c performed as well as those with FPG.

Antibody Profile, Gene Expression and Serum Cytokines in At-Risk Infants before the Onset of Celiac Disease.

Immunological events that precede the development of villous atrophy in celiac disease (CeD) are still not completely understood. We aimed to explore CeD-associated antibody production (anti-native gliadin (AGA), anti-deamidated gliadin (DGP) and anti-tissue transglutaminase (anti-tTG)) in infants at genetic risk for CeD from the Italian cohorts of the PREVENT-CD and Neocel projects, as well as the relationship between antibody production and systemic inflammation. HLA DQ2 and/or DQ8 infants from families with a CeD case were followed from birth. Out of 220 at-risk children, 182 had not developed CeD by 6 years of age (CTRLs), and 38 developed celiac disease (CeD). The profiles of serum cytokines (INFγ, IL1ß, IL2, IL4, IL6, IL10, IL12p70, IL17A and TNFα) and the expression of selected genes (FoxP3, IL10, TGFß, INFγ, IL4 and IL2) were evaluated in 46 children (20 CeD and 26 CTRLs). Among the 182 healthy CTRLs, 28 (15.3%) produced high levels of AGA-IgA (AGA+CTRLs), and none developed anti-tTG-IgA or DGP-IgA, compared to 2/38 (5.3%) CeD infants (Chi Sq. 5.97, p = 0.0014). AGAs appeared earlier in CTRLs than in those who developed CeD (19 vs. 28 months). Additionally, the production of AGAs in CeD overlapped with the production of DGP and anti-tTG. In addition, gene expression as well as serum cytokine levels discriminated children who developed CeD from CTRLs. In conclusion, these findings suggest that the early and isolated production of AGA-IgA antibodies is a CeD-tolerogenic marker and that changes in gene expression and cytokine patterns precede the appearance of anti-tTG antibodies.

Lignan Intake and Risk of Coronary Heart Disease.

BACKGROUND: Evidence regarding lignan consumption in relation to coronary heart disease (CHD) risk remains limited and mixed. OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to prospectively examine associations between lignan intake and CHD risk in U.S. men and women. METHODS: We prospectively followed 214,108 men and women in 3 cohorts who did not have cardiovascular disease or cancer at baseline. Diet was repeatedly assessed using a validated food frequency questionnaire every 2-4 years since baseline. RESULTS: During 5,517,225 person-years of follow-up, we documented 10,244 CHD cases, including 6,283 nonfatal myocardial infarction and 3,961 fatal CHD cases. In multivariable-adjusted analyses, comparing extreme quintiles, the pooled hazard ratios of CHD were 0.85 (95% CI: 0.79-0.92) for total lignans, 0.76 (95% CI: 0.71-0.82) for matairesinol, 0.87 (95% CI: 0.81-0.93) for secoisolariciresinol, 0.89 (95% CI: 0.83-0.95) for pinoresinol, and 0.89 (95% CI: 0.83-0.95) for lariciresinol (all P values for trend ≤0.003). Nonlinear relationships were found for total lignan, matairesinol, and secoisolariciresinol: the risk reduction plateaued at intakes above approximately 300 µg/d, 10 µg/d, and 100 µg/d, respectively (P < 0.01 for all nonlinearity). The inverse associations for total lignan intake appeared to be more apparent among participants with higher total fiber intake (P = 0.04 for interaction). In addition, lignan intake was more strongly associated with plasma concentrations of enterolactone when fiber intake was higher. CONCLUSIONS: Increased long-term intake of lignans was associated with a significantly lower risk of total CHD in both men and women. Possible synergistic effects may exist between lignan and fiber intake in relation to CHD risk reduction, possibly through enhancing the production of enterolignans.

Daily multidisciplinary COVID-19 meeting: Experiences from a French university hospital.

OBJECTIVES: In March 2020, the World Health Organization declared the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) a pandemic. In absence of official recommendations, implementing daily multidisciplinary team (MDT) COVID-19 meetings was urgently needed. Our aim was to describe our initial institutional standard operating procedures for implementing these meetings, and their impact on daily practice. METHODS: All consecutive patients who were hospitalized in our institution due to COVID 19, from March 31 to April 15, 2020, were included. Criteria to be presented at MDT meetings were defined as a proven COVID-19 by PCR or strongly suspected on CT scan, requiring hospitalization and treatment not included in the standard of care. Three investigators identified the patients who met the predefined criteria and compared the treatment and outcomes of patients with predefined criteria that were presented during MDT meeting with those not presented during MDT meeting. COVID-19 MDT meeting implementation and adhesion were also assessed by a hospital medical staff survey. RESULTS: In all, 318 patients with confirmed or suspected COVID-19 were examined in our hospital. Of these, 230 (87%) were hospitalized in a COVID-19 unit, 91 (40%) of whom met predefined MDT meeting criteria. Fifty (55%) patients were presented at a MDT meeting versus 41 (45%) were not. Complementary exploration and inclusion in the CorImmuno cohort were higher in MDT meeting group (respectively 35 vs. 15%, P=0.03 and 80 versus 49%, P=0.0007). Prescription of hydrocortisone hemisuccinate was higher in group of patients not presented during MDT meeting (24 vs. 51%, P=0.007). Almost half of the patients fulfilling the inclusion criteria were not presented at MDT meeting, which can be partly explained by technical software issues. CONCLUSIONS: Multidisciplinary COVID-19 meetings helped implementing a single standard of care, avoided using treatments that were untested or currently being tested, and facilitated the inclusion of patients in prospective cohorts and therapeutic trials.

A pan-Canadian prospective study of young women with breast cancer: the rationale and protocol design for the RUBY study.

Introduction: The understanding of the biology and epidemiology of, and the optimal therapeutic strategies for, breast cancer (bca) in younger women is limited. We present the rationale, design, and initial recruitment of Reducing the Burden of Breast Cancer in Young Women (ruby), a unique national prospective cohort study designed to examine the diagnosis, treatment, quality of life, and outcomes from the time of diagnosis for young women with bca. Methods: Over a 4-year period at 33 sites across Canada, the ruby study will use a local and virtual recruitment model to enrol 1200 women with bca who are 40 years of age or younger at the time of diagnosis, before initiation of any treatment. At a minimum, comprehensive patient, tumour, and treatment data will be collected to evaluate recurrence and survival. Patients may opt to complete patient-reported questionnaires, to provide blood and tumour samples, and to be contacted for future research, forming the core dataset from which 4 subprojects evaluating genetics, lifestyle factors, fertility, and local management or delivery of care will be performed. Summary: The ruby study will be the most comprehensive repository of data, biospecimens, and patient-reported outcomes ever collected with respect to young women with bca from the time of diagnosis, enabling research unique to that population now and into the future. This research model could be used for other oncology settings in Canada.

The impact of lifecourse socio-economic position and individual social mobility on breast cancer risk.

BACKGROUND: Women with an advantaged socioeconomic position (SEP) have a higher risk of developing breast cancer (BC). The reasons for this association do not seem to be limited to reproductive factors and remain to be understood. We aimed to investigate the impact of lifecourse SEP from childhood and social mobility on the risk of BC considering a broad set of potential mediators. METHODS: We used a discovery-replication strategy in two European prospective cohorts, E3N (N = 83,436) and EPIC-Italy (N = 20,530). In E3N, 7877 women were diagnosed with BC during a median 24.4 years of follow-up, while in EPIC-Italy, 893 BC cases were diagnosed within 15.1 years. Hazard ratios (HR) were estimated using Cox proportional hazard models on imputed data. RESULTS: In E3N, women with higher education had a higher risk of BC (HR [95%CI] = 1.21 [1.12, 1.30]). This association was attenuated by adjusting for reproductive factors, in particular age at first childbirth (HR[95%CI] = 1.13 [1.04, 1.22]). Health behaviours, anthropometric variables, and BC screening had a weaker effect on the association. Women who remained in a stable advantaged SEP had a higher risk of BC (HR [95%CI] = 1.24 [1.07; 1.43]) attenuated after adjustment for potential mediators (HR [95%CI] = 1.13 [0.98; 1.31]). These results were replicated in EPIC-Italy. CONCLUSIONS: These results confirm the important role of reproductive factors in the social gradient in BC risk, which does not appear to be fully explained by the large set of potential mediators, including cancer screening, suggesting that further research is needed to identify additional mechanisms.

Height, nevus count, and risk of cutaneous malignant melanoma: Results from 2 large cohorts of US women.

BACKGROUND: Taller individuals are at higher risk of melanoma. OBJECTIVE: To prospectively investigate the association of height with nevus count and melanoma and estimate the proportion of height-melanoma association explained by nevus count among white participants from the Nurses' Health Study (NHS) and Nurses' Health Study 2 (NHS2). METHODS: We used Cox proportional hazards regression and multinomial logistic regression for data analyses, with adjustment of potential confounders in the multivariate model. RESULTS: We included 82,468 and 106,069 women from NHS and NHS2, respectively. The hazard ratio was 1.21 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.12-1.31) for the association between every 10-cm increase in height and melanoma. Compared with women with no nevi, the odds ratios (95% CIs) associated with a 10-cm increase in height were 1.35 (95% CI 1.23-1.48) in the NHS and 1.12 (95% CI 1.09-1.15) in the NHS2 for women with greater than or equal to 10 moles. The proportion of excess melanoma risk associated with each 10-cm increase in height explained by nevus count was 8.03% in the NHS and 10.22% in the NHS2. LIMITATION: Self-reported height and nevus count. Mole counts were limited to 1 arm or both legs. CONCLUSION: Nevus count is an important explanatory factor for the excess risk of melanoma among taller white women.

Understanding the use of observational and randomized data in cardiovascular medicine.

The availability of large datasets from multiple sources [e.g. registries, biobanks, electronic health records (EHRs), claims or billing databases, implantable devices, wearable sensors, and mobile apps], coupled with advances in computing and analytic technologies, have provided new opportunities for conducting innovative health research. Equally, improved digital access to health information has facilitated the conduct of efficient randomized controlled trials (RCTs) upon which clinical management decisions can be based, for instance, by permitting the identification of eligible patients for recruitment and/or linkage for follow-up via their EHRs. Given these advances in cardiovascular data science and the complexities they behold, it is important that health professionals have clarity on the appropriate use and interpretation of observational, so-called 'real-world', and randomized data in cardiovascular medicine. The Cardiovascular Roundtable of the European Society of Cardiology (ESC) held a workshop to explore the future of RCTs and the current and emerging opportunities for gathering and exploiting complex observational datasets in cardiovascular research. The aim of this article is to provide a perspective on the appropriate use of randomized and observational data and to outline the ESC plans for supporting the collection and availability of clinical data to monitor and improve the quality of care of patients with cardiovascular disease in Europe and provide an infrastructure for undertaking pragmatic RCTs. Moreover, the ESC continues to campaign for greater engagement amongst regulators, industry, patients, and health professionals in the development and application of a more efficient regulatory framework that is able to take maximal advantage of new opportunities for improving the design and efficiency of observational studies and RCT in patients with cardiovascular disease.

Risk factors associated with subsequent initiation of cigarettes and e-cigarettes in adolescence: A structural equation modeling approach.

BACKGROUND: Previous youth tobacco research has identified multiple correlated risk factors for initiation of cigarette and e-cigarette use; whether these factors are independently associated with initiation is not known, due to challenges with disentangling the independent effects of these correlated risk factors. METHODS: Students in 11th/12th grade enrolled in the Southern California Children's Health Study were surveyed in 2014 (baseline) and again in 2015 (N = 1553). Structural equation models (SEM) were developed to investigate associations of susceptibility, marketing, and the social environment (as latent factors), and other tobacco use at baseline with cigarette or e-cigarette initiation between baseline and follow-up. Analyses were restricted to baseline never cigarette users (N = 1293) for models evaluating cigarette initiation, and to never e-cigarette users (N = 1197) for models evaluating e-cigarette initiation. RESULTS: In fully-adjusted prospective SEM models, latent factors for cigarette susceptibility, marketing, and the social environment, along with ever e-cigarette use and ever hookah use at baseline were independently associated with cigarette initiation between baseline and follow-up (P < 0.05). Similarly, latent factors for e-cigarette susceptibility, marketing, and the social environment, along with ever hookah use at baseline were associated with e-cigarette initiation between baseline and follow-up (P < 0.05); however, cigarette use at baseline was not associated with e-cigarette initiation in SEM models (P = 0.16). CONCLUSIONS: We identified independent effects of multiple risk factors in SEM models on initiation of cigarettes and e-cigarettes. E-cigarette use was associated with cigarette initiation, but cigarette use was not associated with e-cigarette initiation in fully adjusted models. Research to identify underlying causal mechanisms is warranted.

The Relationship between Whole Grain Intake and Body Weight: Results of Meta-Analyses of Observational Studies and Randomized Controlled Trials.

Results from some observational studies suggest that higher whole grain (WG) intake is associated with lower risk of weight gain. Ovid Medline was used to conduct a literature search for observational studies and randomized controlled trials (RCTs) assessing WG food intake and weight status in adults. A meta-regression analysis of cross-sectional data from 12 observational studies (136,834 subjects) and a meta-analysis of nine RCTs (973 subjects) was conducted; six prospective cohort publications were qualitatively reviewed. Cross-sectional data meta-regression results indicate a significant, inverse correlation between WG intake and body mass index (BMI): weighted slope, -0.0141 kg/m2 per g/day of WG intake (95% confidence interval (CI): -0.0207, -0.0077; r = -0.526, p = 0.0001). Prospective cohort results generally showed inverse associations between WG intake and weight change with typical follow-up periods of five to 20 years. RCT meta-analysis results show a nonsignificant pooled standardized effect size of -0.049 kg (95% CI -0.297, 0.199, p = 0.698) for mean difference in weight change (WG versus control interventions). Higher WG intake is significantly inversely associated with BMI in observational studies but not RCTs up to 16 weeks in length; RCTs with longer intervention periods are warranted.

Osteoprotegerin and Cardiovascular Events in High-Risk Populations: Meta-Analysis of 19 Prospective Studies Involving 27 450 Participants.

Background Osteoprotegerin is a cytokine involved in bone metabolism as well as vascular calcification and atherogenesis. Although circulating osteoprotegerin levels are robustly associated with incident cardiovascular disease ( CVD ) in the general population, its relevance as a biomarker among populations at high CVD risk is less clear. Methods and Results Three independent reviewers systematically searched PubMed, EMBASE , and Web of Science to identify prospective studies that had recruited participants on the basis of having conditions related to high CVD risk. A total of 19 studies were eligible for inclusion, reporting on 27 450 patients with diabetes mellitus (2 studies), kidney disease (7 studies), preexisting heart disease (5 studies), or recent acute coronary syndromes (5 studies) at baseline. Over a mean follow-up of 4.2 years, 4066 CVD events were recorded. In a random-effects meta-analysis, the pooled risk ratio for CVD events comparing people in the top versus the bottom tertile of osteoprotegerin concentration was 1.30 (95% confidence interval, 1.12-1.50; P<0.001; I2=68.3%). There was evidence for presence of publication bias ( P value from Egger's test=0.013). Correction for publication bias using the trim-and-fill method reduced the risk ratio to 1.21 (95% confidence interval, 1.03-1.42; P<0.001). The risk ratios did not vary significantly by population type, geographical region, statistical adjustment, sample or assay type, age, sex, or length of follow-up. Conclusions In populations at high CVD risk, elevated circulating osteoprotegerin levels are associated with a higher risk for future CVD events. The magnitude of association appears weaker than in the general population.

Concentrated sugars and incidence of prostate cancer in a prospective cohort.

The association between consumption of added or concentrated sugars and prostate cancer risk is unclear. We examined the association between concentrated sugars in beverages and desserts and prostate cancer risk among 22 720 men in the usual-care arm of the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal and Ovarian (PLCO) Cancer Screening Trial, enrolled during 1993-2001. After a median follow-up of 9 years, 1996 men were diagnosed with prostate cancer. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HR) for prostate cancer risk and 95 % CI, adjusting for potential confounding factors. Increased consumption of sugars from sugar-sweetened beverages was associated with increased risk of prostate cancer for men in the highest quartile of sugar consumption (HR: 1·21; 95 % CI 1·06, 1·39), and there was a linear trend (P<0·01). There were no linear associations between prostate cancer risk and consumption of sugars from fruit juices or dessert foods. In conclusion, in this prospective substudy within the PLCO trial, consumption of sugars from sugar-sweetened beverages was associated with increased risk of prostate cancer among men receiving standard medical care. Our study suggests that limiting intake of sugars from beverages may be important in the prevention of prostate cancer.

Milk and risk of colorectal, colon and rectal cancer in the Norwegian Women and Cancer (NOWAC) Cohort Study.

According to World Cancer Research Fund International/American Institute for Cancer Research, it is 'probable' that dairy products decrease the risk of colorectal cancer (CRC). However, meta-analyses restricted to women have not shown associations between milk intake and risk of CRC. The aim of this study was to examine the association between milk intake and risk of CRC, colon cancer and rectal cancer among women. Data from 81 675 participants in the Norwegian Women and Cancer Cohort Study were included, and multivariable Cox proportional hazard regression models were used to investigate milk intake using two different analytical approaches: one that included repeated measurements and one that included baseline measurements only (872 and 1084 CRC cases, respectively). A weak inverse association between milk intake and risk of colon cancer may be indicated both in repeated measurements analyses and in baseline data analyses. Hazard ratios (HR) for colon cancer of 0·80 (95 % CI 0·62, 1·03, P trend 0·07) and 0·81 (95 % CI 0·64, 1·01, P trend 0·03) and HR for rectal cancer of 0·97 (95 % CI 0·67, 1·42, P trend 0·92) and 0·71 (95 % CI 0·50, 1·01, P trend 0·03) were found when comparing the high with the no/seldom milk intake group in energy-adjusted multivariable models. Our study indicates that there may be a weak inverse association between milk intake and risk of colon cancer among women. The two analytical approaches yielded different results for rectal cancer and hence CRC. Our study indicates that the use of single or repeated measurements in analyses may influence the results.

Tumor expression of calcium sensing receptor and colorectal cancer survival: Results from the nurses' health study and health professionals follow-up study.

Although experimental evidence suggests calcium-sensing receptor (CASR) as a tumor-suppressor, the prognostic role of tumor CASR expression in colorectal carcinoma remains unclear. We hypothesized that higher tumor CASR expression might be associated with improved survival among colorectal cancer patients. We evaluated tumor expression levels of CASR by immunohistochemistry in 809 incident colorectal cancer patients within the Nurses' Health Study and the Health Professionals Follow-up Study. We used Cox proportional hazards regression models to estimate multivariable hazard ratio (HR) for the association of tumor CASR expression with colorectal cancer-specific and all-cause mortality. We adjusted for potential confounders including tumor biomarkers such as microsatellite instability, CpG island methylator phenotype, LINE-1 methylation level, expressions of PTGS2, VDR and CTNNB1 and mutations of KRAS, BRAF and PIK3CA. There were 240 colorectal cancer-specific deaths and 427 all-cause deaths. The median follow-up of censored patients was 10.8 years (interquartile range: 7.2, 15.1). Compared with patients with no or weak expression of CASR, the multivariable HRs for colorectal cancer-specific mortality were 0.80 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.55-1.16] in patients with moderate CASR expression and 0.50 (95% CI: 0.32-0.79) in patients with intense CASR expression (p-trend = 0.003). The corresponding HRs for overall mortality were 0.85 (0.64-1.13) and 0.81 (0.58-1.12), respectively. Higher tumor CASR expression was associated with a lower risk of colorectal cancer-specific mortality. This finding needs further confirmation and if confirmed, may lead to better understanding of the role of CASR in colorectal cancer progression.

A priori-defined diet quality indices, biomarkers and risk for type 2 diabetes in five ethnic groups: the Multiethnic Cohort.

Dietary indices have been related to risk for type 2 diabetes (T2D) predominantly in white populations. The present study evaluated this association in the ethnically diverse Multiethnic Cohort and examined four diet quality indices in relation to T2D risk, homoeostatic model assessment-estimated insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) and biomarkers of dyslipidaemia, inflammation and adipokines. The T2D analysis included 166 550 white, African American, Native Hawaiian, Japanese American and Latino participants (9200 incident T2D cases). Dietary intake was assessed at baseline using a quantitative FFQ and T2D status was based on three self-reports and confirmed by administrative data. Biomarkers were assessed about 10 years later in a biomarker subcohort (n 10 060). Sex- and ethnicity-specific hazard ratios were calculated for the Healthy Eating Index-2010 (HEI-2010), the alternative HEI-2010 (AHEI-2010), the alternate Mediterranean diet score (aMED) and the Dietary Approaches to Stop Hypertension (DASH). Multivariable-adjusted means of biomarkers were compared across dietary index tertiles in the biomarker subcohort. The AHEI-2010, aMED (in men only) and DASH scores were related to a 10-20 % lower T2D risk, with the strongest associations in whites and the direction of the relationships mostly consistent across ethnic groups. Higher scores on the four indices were related to lower HOMA-IR, TAG and C-reactive protein concentrations, not related to leptin, and the DASH score was directly associated with adiponectin. The AHEI-2010 and DASH were directly related to HDL-cholesterol in women. Potential underlying biological mechanisms linking diet quality and T2D risk are an improved lipid profile and reduced systemic inflammation and, with regards to DASH alone, an improved adiponectin profile.

Antioxidant intake from diet and supplements and risk of digestive cancers in middle-aged adults: results from the prospective NutriNet-Santé cohort.

Experimental studies suggest beneficial effects of antioxidants in digestive cancer prevention. However, epidemiological results are contrasting and few studies quantitatively assessed supplemental intake. This study aimed at investigating the associations between antioxidant intakes (dietary, supplemental and total) and digestive cancer risk. This prospective study included 38 812 middle-aged subjects (≥45 years) from the NutriNet-Santé cohort (2009-2016). Dietary data were collected using repeated 24 h records. A specific questionnaire assessed dietary supplement use over a 12-month period. A composition database of about 8000 dietary supplements was developed. Associations between continuous and sex-specific quartiles of vitamins C and E, ß-carotene and Se intakes and digestive cancer risk were characterised using multivariable Cox proportional hazard models. A total of 167 incident digestive cancers (120 colorectal, twenty-six pancreatic, nine oesophagus, seven stomach and five liver) were diagnosed during follow-up investigation. Dietary (hazard ratios (HR)Q4 v. Q1=0·56; 95 % CI 0·34, 0·91, P trend=0·01) and total (HRQ4 v. Q1=0·51; 95 % CI 0·30, 0·84, P trend=0·008) vitamin C intakes, dietary (HRQ4 v. Q1=0·56; 95 % CI 0·34, 0·92, P trend=0·005) and total (HRQ4 v. Q1=0·58; 95 % CI 0·36, 0·94, P trend=0·003) vitamin E intakes, and dietary (HRfor an increment of 10 µg/d=0·92; 95 % CI 0·85, 1·00, P=0·04) and total (HRfor an increment of 10 µg/d=0·92; 95 % CI 0·86, 0·99, P=0·03) Se intakes were associated with a decreased digestive cancer risk. Statistically significant interactions were observed between dietary and total Se intakes and alcohol consumption as well as between total vitamin E intake and smoking status. This prospective cohort study with quantitative assessment of supplemental intakes suggests a potential protective effect of several antioxidants (vitamins C and E and Se) on digestive cancer risk, and a modulation of some of these relationships by alcohol consumption and smoking status.

After 50 years and 200 papers, what can the Midspan cohort studies tell us about our mortality?

OBJECTIVE: To distil the main findings from published papers on mortality in three cohorts involving over 27,000 adults, recruited in Scotland between 1965 and 1976 and followed up ever since. METHOD: We read and summarized 48 peer-reviewed papers about all-cause and cause-specific mortality in these cohorts, published between 1978 and 2013. RESULTS: Mortality rates were substantially higher among cigarette smokers in all social classes and both genders. Exposure to second-hand smoke was also damaging. Exposure to higher levels of black smoke pollution was associated with higher mortality. After smoking, diminished lung function was the risk factor most strongly related to higher mortality, even among never-smokers. On average, female mortality rates were much lower than male but the same risk factors were predictors of mortality. Mortality rates were highest among men whose paternal, own first and most recent jobs were manual. Specific causes of death were associated with different life stages. Upward and downward social mobility conferred intermediate mortality rates. Low childhood cognitive ability was strongly associated with low social class in adulthood and higher mortality before age 65 years. There was no evidence that daily stress contributed to higher mortality among people in lower social positions. Men in manual occupations with fathers in manual occupations, who smoked and drank >14 units of alcohol a week had cardiovascular disease mortality rates 4.5 times higher than non-manual men with non-manual fathers, who neither smoked nor drank >14 units. Men who were obese and drank >14 units of alcohol per day had a mortality rate due to liver disease 19 times that of normal or underweight non-drinkers. Among women who never smoked, mortality rates were highest in severely obese women in the lowest occupational classes. CONCLUSION: These studies highlight the cumulative effect of adverse exposures throughout life, the complex interplay between social circumstances, culture and individual capabilities, and the damaging effects of smoking, air pollution, alcohol and obesity.