RÉSUMÉ
In this review, we discuss dengue surveillance, prevention, and control measures in Brazil. Data on dengue epidemics between 2000 and 2024 indicates an increase in the number of dengue cases and deaths. Global climate change is a key driver of this growth. Over the past 25 years, nearly 18 million Brazilians have been infected with the dengue virus, and the highest number of dengue cases in Brazil's history is projected to reach 2024. Dengue mortality in Brazil increased geographically over time. As of June, there were approximately 6 million probable cases and 4,000 confirmed deaths in Brazil, which represents the greatest dengue epidemic to date. Several technologies have been developed to control Aedes aegypti, including the deployment of Wolbachia-infected mosquitoes, indoor residual spraying, sterile insect techniques, and mosquito-disseminated insecticides. The Ministry of Health recommends integrating these technologies into health services. Brazil is the first country to incorporate the Takeda vaccine into its public health system, and the Butantan vaccine is currently undergoing Phase 3 clinical trials. Increasing the vaccination coverage and implementing novel Ae. aegypti control technologies could reduce the number of dengue cases in Brazil in the coming years. Community activities such as home cleaning and elimination of potential mosquito breeding sites, facilitated by social media and health education initiatives, must continue to achieve this reduction. Ultimately, a multisectoral approach encompassing sanitary improvements, mosquito control, vaccination, and community mobilization is crucial in the fight against dengue epidemics.
Sujet(s)
Aedes , Dengue , Épidémies , Lutte contre les moustiques , Vecteurs moustiques , Dengue/prévention et contrôle , Dengue/épidémiologie , Humains , Brésil/épidémiologie , Lutte contre les moustiques/méthodes , Animaux , Aedes/virologie , Épidémies/prévention et contrôle , Vaccins contre la dengue/administration et posologie , Surveillance de la populationRÉSUMÉ
BACKGROUND: Zoonotic sporotrichosis caused by Sporothrix brasiliensis has become the main subcutaneous mycosis in Brazil. Minas Gerais (MG) is located in southeast Brazil and since 2015 has experienced an epidemic of zoonotic sporotrichosis. OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to reconstruct the epidemiological scenario of sporotrichosis from S. brasiliensis in recent epizooty in the Metropolitan Region of Belo Horizonte (MRBH), MG. METHODS: A total of 95 Sporothrix spp. isolates (Sporothirx brasiliensis n = 74, S. schenckii n = 11 and S. globosa n = 10) were subjected to Amplified Fragment Length Polymorphism (AFLP) genotyping and mating-type analysis to determine genetic diversity and population structure. Of these, 46 S. brasiliensis isolates were recovered from animals (cats n = 41 and dogs n = 5) from MRBH. RESULTS: Our study describes the high interspecific differentiation power of AFLP-based genotyping between the main phylogenetic Sporothrix groups. S. brasiliensis presents high genetic variability and pronounced population structure with geographically focused outbreaks in Brazil. The genetic groups include older genotypes from the prolonged epidemic in Southeast (Rio de Janeiro and São Paulo), South (Rio Grande do Sul), Northeast (Pernambuco) and new genotypes from the MRBH. Furthermore, we provide evidence of heterothallism mating strategy in pathogenic Sporothrix species. Genotypes originating in Rio de Janeiro and Pernambuco carry the predominant MAT1-2 idiomorph as opposed to genotypes from Rio Grande do Sul, which have the MAT1-1 idiomorph. We observed an overwhelming occurrence of MAT1-1 among MRBH isolates. CONCLUSION: Our study provides clear evidence of the predominance of a genetic group profile circulating in animals in Minas Gerais, independent of that disseminated from Rio de Janeiro. Our data can help us understand the genetic population processes that drive the evolution of this fungus in Minas Gerais and contribute to future mitigation actions for this ongoing epidemic.
Sujet(s)
Analyse de polymorphisme de longueur de fragments amplifiés , Maladies des chats , Épidémies , Variation génétique , Génotype , Sporothrix , Sporotrichose , Sporotrichose/épidémiologie , Sporotrichose/microbiologie , Brésil/épidémiologie , Sporothrix/génétique , Sporothrix/classification , Sporothrix/isolement et purification , Animaux , Chats , Chiens , Maladies des chats/microbiologie , Maladies des chats/épidémiologie , Zoonoses/épidémiologie , Zoonoses/microbiologie , Phylogenèse , Maladies des chiens/épidémiologie , Maladies des chiens/microbiologie , HumainsRÉSUMÉ
A detailed clinical-epidemiological analysis of feline sporotrichosis was conducted, and 288 cases reported between the years 2007 and 2018 were analyzed. The studied cases primarily involved mongrel cats (240/260), males (212/282), and adults (121/200). The main objectives were to identify the risk factors, calculate the monthly incidence rates, and establish a predictive model using the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) approach. The statistical analysis revealed significant associations (p < 0.05) between prolonged lesion evolution times and factors such as respiratory signs, prior treatments, and lesion contact. Empirical treatment was identified as a significant risk factor for disease progression. Moreover, the number of cases demonstrated an increasing trend over the study period, with annual peaks noted in disease incidence. The SARIMA model proved to be an effective tool for forecasting the incidence of sporotrichosis, offering robust support for epidemiological surveillance and facilitating targeted public health interventions in endemic regions. The predictive accuracy of the developed model underscored its utility in enhancing disease monitoring and supporting proactive health measures for the effective management of sporotrichosis.
Sujet(s)
Maladies des chats , Prévision , Sporotrichose , Animaux , Sporotrichose/épidémiologie , Sporotrichose/médecine vétérinaire , Chats , Maladies des chats/épidémiologie , Brésil/épidémiologie , Incidence , Mâle , Femelle , Facteurs de risque , Épidémies/médecine vétérinaire , SaisonsRÉSUMÉ
BACKGROUND: Dengue is a vector-borne viral infection caused by the dengue virus transmitted to humans primarily by Aedes aegypti. The year 2024 has been a historic year for dengue in Brazil, with the highest number of probable cases ever registered. Herein, we analyze the temporal trend and spatio-temporal dynamics of dengue cases in Brazil during the first nine epidemiological weeks (EW) of 2024. METHODS: This is an ecological study, including all probable cases of dengue in Brazil during the period, carried out in two steps: time series analysis to assess the temporal trend and spatial analysis to identify high-risk clusters. RESULTS: 1,345,801 probable cases of dengue were reported. The regions with the highest increasing trend were the Northeast with an average epidemiologic week percent change (AEPC) of 52.4 (95% CI: 45.5-59.7; p < 0.001) and the South with 35.9 (95% CI: 27.7-44.5; p < 0.001). There was a statistically significant increasing trend in all states, except Acre (AEPC = -4.1; 95% CI: -16.3-10; p = 0.55), Amapá (AEPC = 1.3; 95% CI: -16.2-22.3; p = 0.9) and Espírito Santo (AEPC = 8.9; 95% CI: -15.7-40.6; p = 0.5). The retrospective space-time analysis showed a cluster within the Northeast, Central-West and Southeast regions, with a radius of 515.3 km, in which 1,267 municipalities and 525,324 of the cases were concentrated (RR = 6.3; p < 0.001). Regarding the spatial variation of the temporal trend, 21 risk areas were found, all of them located in Southeast or Central-West states. The area with the highest relative risk was Minas Gerais state, where 5,748 cases were concentrated (RR = 8.1; p < 0.001). Finally, a purely spatial analysis revealed 25 clusters, the one with the highest relative risk being composed of two municipalities in Acre (RR = 6.9; p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: We described a detailed temporal-spatial analysis of dengue cases in the first EWs of 2024 in Brazil, which were mainly concentrated in the Southeast and Central-West regions. Overall, it is recommended that governments adopt public policies to control the the vector population in high-risk areas, as well as to prevent the spread of dengue fever to other areas of Brazil.
Sujet(s)
Aedes , Dengue , Épidémies , Analyse spatio-temporelle , Brésil/épidémiologie , Dengue/épidémiologie , Dengue/transmission , Humains , Épidémies/statistiques et données numériques , Aedes/virologie , Animaux , Prise de décision , Vecteurs moustiques/virologie , Virus de la dengueRÉSUMÉ
La presente publicación semanal describe la información epidemiológica, producto de la notificación de los establecimientos de salud del Ministerio de Salud, Gobiernos regionales, EsSalud, Sanidades de fuerzas armadas y policiales, y privados, que conforman la Red Nacional de Epidemiología (RENACE), además de información o análisis especializado que desarrolla el CDC MINSA, a fin de gestionar de manera eficaz, eficiente y oportuna los procesos de vigilancia epidemiológica, inteligencia sanitaria, salud global, respuesta y control de brotes, epidemias y otros eventos de importancia en salud pública. Asimismo, la ocurrencia de brotes y/o epidemia, tales como el sarampión, rubéola, parálisis Flácida Aguda (PFA), loxoscelismo, , varicela, y otros brotes endémicas a nivel nacional para una adecuada y oportuna toma de decisiones en prevención y control en salud pública
Sujet(s)
Humains , Paralysie , Morsures d'araignées , Surveilance de Santé , Varicelle , Épidémies de maladies , Épidémies , Surveillance épidémiologique , Établissements de santé , RougeoleRÉSUMÉ
Background: Maternal and perinatal health is often directly and indirectly affected during infectious disease epidemics. Yet, a lack of evidence on epidemics' impact on women and their offspring delays informed decision-making for healthcare providers, pregnant women, women in the post-pregnancy period and policy-makers. To rapidly generate evidence in these circumstances, we aim to develop a Core Outcome Set (COS) for maternal and perinatal health research and surveillance in light of emerging and ongoing epidemic threats. Methods: We will conduct a Systematic Review and a four-stage modified Delphi expert consensus. The systematic literature will aim to inform experts on outcomes reported in maternal and perinatal research and surveillance during previous epidemics. The expert consensus will involve two individual, anonymous online surveys to rate outcomes' importance and suggest new ones, one virtual meeting to discuss disagreements, and one in-person meeting to agree on the final COS, outcomes definitions and measurement methods. Four panels will be established to participate in the modified Delphi with expertise in (a) maternal and perinatal health, (b) neonatal health, (c) public health and emergency response, and (d) representation of civil society. We will recruit at least 20 international experts for each stakeholder group, with diverse backgrounds and gender, professional, and geographic balance. Only highly-rated outcomes (with at least 80% of ratings being 7-9 on a 9-point Likert scale) and no more than 10% of low ratings (1-3) will be included in the final COS. Conclusions: Implementing this COS in future maternal and perinatal research and surveillance, especially in the context of emerging and ongoing epidemic threats, will facilitate the rapid and systematic generation of evidence. It will also enhance the ability of policy-makers, healthcare providers, pregnant women and women in the post-pregnancy period and their families to make well-informed choices in challenging circumstances.
Sujet(s)
Méthode Delphi , Santé maternelle , Femelle , Humains , Grossesse , Consensus , Épidémies , Plan de recherche , Revues systématiques comme sujetRÉSUMÉ
OBJECTIVE: To identify risk factors for death from influenza A(H1N1), including the effectiveness of the vaccine against influenza A(H1N1) concerning mortality. METHODS: A case-control of incident cases of influenza A(H1N1) reported in the epidemiological information systems of the states of São Paulo, Paraná, Pará, Amazonas, and Rio Grande do Sul was conducted. RESULTS: 305 participants were included, 70 of them cases and 235 controls, distributed as follows: Amazonas, 9 cases/10 controls; Pará, 22 cases/77 controls, São Paulo, 19 cases/49 controls; Paraná, 10 cases/54 controls; Rio Grande do Sul, 10 cases/45 controls. These participants had a mean age of 30 years, with 33 years among cases and 25 years among controls. There was a predominance of females both among the cases and controls. Biological (age), pre-existing diseases (congestive heart failure, respiratory disease, and diabetes mellitus), and care factors (ICU admission) associated with death from influenza A(H1N1) were identified. CONCLUSION: The risk factors identified in this investigation not only allowed subsidizing the elaboration of clinical conducts but also indicate important aspects for facing "new" influenza epidemics that are likely to occur in our country.
Sujet(s)
Sous-type H1N1 du virus de la grippe A , Grippe humaine , Humains , Brésil/épidémiologie , Grippe humaine/mortalité , Grippe humaine/épidémiologie , Femelle , Adulte , Mâle , Études cas-témoins , Facteurs de risque , Adulte d'âge moyen , Jeune adulte , Adolescent , Facteurs socioéconomiques , Épidémies , Enfant , Vaccins antigrippaux/administration et posologieRÉSUMÉ
Background: Dengue fever (DF) is a mosquito-borne illness with substantial economic and societal impact. Understanding laboratory trends of hospitalized Dominican Republic (DR) pediatric patients could help develop screening procedures in low-resourced settings. We sought to describe laboratory findings over time in DR children with DF and DF severity from 2018 to 2020. Methods: Clinical information was obtained prospectively from recruited children with DF. Complete blood count (CBC) laboratory measures were assessed across Days 1-10 of fever. Participants were classified as DF-negative and DF-positive and grouped by severity. We assessed associations of DF severity with demographics, clinical characteristics, and peripheral blood studies. Using linear mixed-models, we assessed if hematologic values/trajectories differed by DF status/severity. Results: A total of 597 of 1101 with a DF clinical diagnosis were serologically evaluated, and 574 (471 DF-positive) met inclusion criteria. In DF, platelet count and hemoglobin were higher on earlier days of fever (p < = 0.0017). Eighty had severe DF. Severe DF risk was associated with thrombocytopenia, intraillness anemia, and leukocytosis, differing by fever day (p < = 0.001). Conclusions: In a pediatric hospitalized DR cohort, we found marked anemia in late stages of severe DF, unlike the typically seen hemoconcentration. These findings, paired with clinical symptom changes over time, may help guide risk-stratified screenings for resource-limited settings.
Sujet(s)
Virus de la dengue , Dengue , Humains , République dominicaine/épidémiologie , Dengue/épidémiologie , Dengue/sang , Dengue/virologie , Dengue/diagnostic , Mâle , Femelle , Enfant d'âge préscolaire , Hémogramme , Nourrisson , Virus de la dengue/isolement et purification , Enfant , Épidémies , Anémie/épidémiologie , Anémie/sang , Thrombopénie/épidémiologie , Thrombopénie/sang , Thrombopénie/virologie , Études prospectivesRÉSUMÉ
RESUMONas últimas quatro décadas e meia, a história da pandemia de HIV passou por várias fases que podem ser pensadas como ondas distintas em termos da resposta social e política que a pandemia gerou. Ao longo dessa história, houve batalhas importantes sobre os significados e interpretações que a resposta à pandemia produziu. Mas, especialmente na última década, parece haver uma crescente desconexão entre as alegações de sucesso feitas por muitas agências globais de saúde e formuladores de políticas e a realidade empírica que essas alegações encobrem. Este comentário argumenta que a 'ampliação' ('scale-up') da resposta à pandemia essencialmente chegou ao fim e enfatiza a importância de um debate político mais honesto sobre o estado atual da resposta global ao HIV. Argumenta que, a fim de melhor definir os rumos que tal resposta deve tomar no futuro, exige que pensemos criticamente sobre as formas como essa resposta se desenvolveu historicamente, que reconheçamos os avanços significativos alcançados nas últimas décadas, mas também que reconheçamos a encruzilhada a que chegou em meados da década de 2020.
Sujet(s)
Syndrome d'immunodéficience acquise , Santé mondiale , Politique de santé , Humains , Syndrome d'immunodéficience acquise/épidémiologie , Syndrome d'immunodéficience acquise/prévention et contrôle , Pandémies , Épidémies , Politique , Infections à VIH/épidémiologie , Infections à VIH/prévention et contrôleRÉSUMÉ
Stroke is the leading cause of disability and the third leading cause of mortality in our country. Argentina and the Region of the Americas are going through the worst epidemic outbreak of dengue on record with significant demand on the health system. Dengue could increase the risk of stroke and given the time-dependent nature of the management of this disease to reduce morbidity and mortality and the potential considerations to be taken into account in patients with dengue, we present a focused review of the literature with points of uncertainty and aspects to be considered in the stroke code considering the clinical characteristics and high demand of the health system caused by the dengue fever. A call is also made to generate evidence on the management of stroke in patients with dengue.
El accidente cerebrovascular (ACV) es la principal causa de discapacidad y la tercera causa de mortalidad en nuestro país. Argentina y la región de las Américas se encuentran atravesando el peor brote epidémico de dengue del que se tenga registro, con una importante demanda en el sistema de salud. El dengue podría aumentar el riesgo de ACV y dada la naturaleza tiempo dependiente del manejo de esta enfermedad para reducir la morbilidad y mortalidad, y las potenciales consideraciones a tener en cuenta en los pacientes con dengue, se presenta una revisión breve de la literatura con puntos de incertidumbre y aspectos a considerar en el protocolo o código de ACV, considerando las características clínicas y alta demanda del sistema de salud provocada por el dengue. Se realiza también un llamado a generar evidencia sobre el manejo del ACV en pacientes con dengue.
Sujet(s)
Dengue , Accident vasculaire cérébral , Humains , Dengue/épidémiologie , Dengue/thérapie , Dengue/complications , Accident vasculaire cérébral/thérapie , Accident vasculaire cérébral/épidémiologie , Accident vasculaire cérébral/étiologie , Argentine/épidémiologie , Épidémies , Facteurs de risqueRÉSUMÉ
Plague is a deadly zoonosis that still poses a threat in many regions of the world. We combined epidemiologic, host, and vector surveillance data collected during 1961-1980 from the Araripe Plateau focus in northeastern Brazil with ecologic, geoclimatic, and Yersinia pestis genomic information to elucidate how these factors interplay in plague activity. We identified well-delimited plague hotspots showing elevated plague risk in low-altitude areas near the foothills of the plateau's concave sectors. Those locations exhibited distinct precipitation and vegetation coverage patterns compared with the surrounding areas. We noted a seasonal effect on plague activity, and human cases linearly correlated with precipitation and rodent and flea Y. pestis positivity rates. Genomic characterization of Y. pestis strains revealed a foundational strain capable of evolving into distinct genetic variants, each linked to temporally and spatially constrained plague outbreaks. These data could identify risk areas and improve surveillance in other plague foci within the Caatinga biome.
Sujet(s)
Peste , Yersinia pestis , Peste/épidémiologie , Peste/microbiologie , Brésil/épidémiologie , Yersinia pestis/génétique , Humains , Animaux , Épidémies , Siphonaptera/microbiologie , Génome bactérien , Génomique/méthodes , SaisonsRÉSUMÉ
OBJECTIVE: In Ecuador, data on molecular epidemiology, as well as circulating clones, are limited. Therefore, this study aims to know the population structure of Pseudomonas aeruginosa by identifying clones in clinical samples in Quito-Ecuador. METHODS: A significant set (45) clinical P. aeruginosa isolates were selected, including multidrug and non-multidrug resistant isolates, which were assigned to sequence types (STs) and compared with their antibiotic susceptibility profile. The genetic diversity was assessed by applying the multilocus sequence typing (MLST) scheme and the genetic relationships between different STs were corroborated by phylogenetic networks. RESULTS: The MLST analysis identified 24 different STs and the most prevalent STs were ST-3750 and ST-253. The majority of the multidrug-resistance (MDR) isolates were included in ST-3750 and ST-253, also 3 singleton STs were identified as MDR isolates. The 21 different STs were found in non-multidrug resistance (non-MDR) isolates, and only 3 STs were found in more the one isolate. CONCLUSIONS: The population structure of clinical P. aeruginosa present in these isolates indicates a significant association between MDR isolates and the clonal types: all ST-3750 and ST-253 isolates were MDR. ST-3750 is a closely related strain to the clonal complex ST111 (CC111). ST-253 and ST111 are a group of successful high-risk clones widely distributed worldwide. The multiresistant isolates studied are grouped in the most prevalent STs found, and the susceptible isolates correspond mainly with singleton STs. Therefore, these high-risk clones and their association with MDR phenotypes are contributing to the spread of MDR in Quito, Ecuador.
Sujet(s)
Antibactériens , Multirésistance bactérienne aux médicaments , Tests de sensibilité microbienne , Typage par séquençage multilocus , Phylogenèse , Infections à Pseudomonas , Pseudomonas aeruginosa , Pseudomonas aeruginosa/effets des médicaments et des substances chimiques , Pseudomonas aeruginosa/génétique , Pseudomonas aeruginosa/isolement et purification , Pseudomonas aeruginosa/classification , Humains , Multirésistance bactérienne aux médicaments/génétique , Infections à Pseudomonas/microbiologie , Infections à Pseudomonas/épidémiologie , Équateur/épidémiologie , Antibactériens/pharmacologie , Épidémiologie moléculaire , Variation génétique , Génotype , Épidémies , Femelle , Mâle , AdulteRÉSUMÉ
BACKGROUND: Guillain-Barré Syndrome (GBS) can lead to significant functional impairments, yet little is understood about the recovery phase and long-term consequences for patients in low- and medium-income countries. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the functional status and identify factors influencing outcomes among patients with GBS in Colombia. METHODS: Telephone interviews were conducted with GBS patients enrolled in the Neuroviruses Emerging in the Americas Study between 2016 and 2020. The investigation encompassed access to health services and functional status assessments, utilizing the modified Rankin Scale (mRS), GBS Disability Score (GDS), Barthel Index (BI), and International Classification of Functioning (ICF). Univariate analysis, principal component analysis, linear discriminant analysis, and linear regression were employed to explore factors influencing functional status. RESULTS: Forty-five patients (mean age = 50[±22] years) with a median time from diagnosis of 28 months (IQR = 9-34) were included. Notably, 22% and 16% of patients did not receive rehabilitation services during the acute episode and post-discharge, respectively. Most patients demonstrated independence in basic daily activities (median BI = 100, IQR = 77.5-100), improvement in disability as the median mRS at follow-up was lower than at onset (1 [IQR = 0-3] vs. 4.5 [IQR = 4-5], p < 0.001), and most were able to walk without assistance (median GDS = 2, IQR = 0-2). A shorter period from disease onset to interview was associated with worse mRS (p = 0.015) and ICF (p = 0.019). Negative outcomes on GDS and ICF were linked to low socioeconomic status, ICF to the severity of weakness at onset, and BI to an older age. CONCLUSIONS: This study underscores that the functional recovery of GBS patients in Colombia is influenced not only by the natural course of the disease but also by socioeconomic factors, emphasizing the crucial role of social determinants of health.
Sujet(s)
Syndrome de Guillain-Barré , Infection par le virus Zika , Humains , Colombie/épidémiologie , Syndrome de Guillain-Barré/épidémiologie , Syndrome de Guillain-Barré/diagnostic , Mâle , Femelle , Adulte d'âge moyen , Infection par le virus Zika/épidémiologie , Infection par le virus Zika/complications , Adulte , Sujet âgé , Évaluation de l'invalidité , Épidémies , Récupération fonctionnelle , État fonctionnelRÉSUMÉ
This study presents a comprehensive analysis of a two-patch, two-life stage SI model without recovery from infection, focusing on the dynamics of disease spread and host population viability in natural populations. The model, inspired by real-world ecological crises like the decline of amphibian populations due to chytridiomycosis and sea star populations due to Sea Star Wasting Disease, aims to understand the conditions under which a sink host population can present ecological rescue from a healthier, source population. Mathematical and numerical analyses reveal the critical roles of the basic reproductive numbers of the source and sink populations, the maturation rate, and the dispersal rate of juveniles in determining population outcomes. The study identifies basic reproduction numbers R 0 for each of the patches, and conditions for the basic reproduction numbers to produce a receiving patch under which its population. These findings provide insights into managing natural populations affected by disease, with implications for conservation strategies, such as the importance of maintaining reproductively viable refuge populations and considering the effects of dispersal and maturation rates on population recovery. The research underscores the complexity of host-pathogen dynamics in spatially structured environments and highlights the need for multi-faceted approaches to biodiversity conservation in the face of emerging diseases.
Sujet(s)
Amphibiens , Taux de reproduction de base , Épidémies , Interactions hôte-pathogène , Concepts mathématiques , Modèles biologiques , Dynamique des populations , Animaux , Taux de reproduction de base/statistiques et données numériques , Épidémies/statistiques et données numériques , Amphibiens/microbiologie , Amphibiens/croissance et développement , Dynamique des populations/statistiques et données numériques , Étoile de mer/croissance et développement , Étoile de mer/microbiologie , Étapes du cycle de vie , Chytridiomycota/physiologie , Chytridiomycota/pathogénicité , Modèles épidémiologiques , Simulation numériqueRÉSUMÉ
BACKGROUND: The description of local seasonality patterns in respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) incidence is important to guide the timing of administration of RSV immunization products. METHODS: We characterized RSV seasonality in Guatemala using the moving epidemic method (MEM) with absolute counts of RSV-associated acute respiratory infections (ARI) from hospital surveillance in Santa Rosa and Quetzaltenango departments of Guatemala. RESULTS: From Week 17 of 2008 through Week 16 of 2018, 8487 ARI cases tested positive for RSV by rRT-PCR. Season onsets varied up to 5 months; early seasons starting in late May to early August and finishing in September to November were most common, but late seasons starting in October to November and finishing in March to April were also observed. Both epidemic patterns had similar durations ranging from 4 to 6 months. Epidemic thresholds (the levels of virus activity that signal the onset and end of a seasonal epidemic) calculated prospectively using previous seasons' data captured between 70% and 99% of annual RSV detections. Onset weeks differed by 2-10 weeks, and offset weeks differed by 2-16 weeks between the two surveillance sites. CONCLUSIONS: Variability in the timing of seasonal RSV epidemics in Guatemala demonstrates the difficulty in precisely predicting the timing of seasonal RSV epidemics based on onset weeks from past seasons and suggests that maximal reduction in RSV disease burden would be achieved through year-round vaccination and immunoprophylaxis administration to at-risk infants.
Sujet(s)
Épidémies , Infections à virus respiratoire syncytial , Virus respiratoire syncytial humain , Saisons , Guatemala/épidémiologie , Humains , Infections à virus respiratoire syncytial/épidémiologie , Infections à virus respiratoire syncytial/prévention et contrôle , Virus respiratoire syncytial humain/isolement et purification , Nourrisson , Enfant d'âge préscolaire , Incidence , Femelle , Mâle , Infections de l'appareil respiratoire/épidémiologie , Infections de l'appareil respiratoire/virologie , EnfantRÉSUMÉ
We construct, analyze and interpret a mathematical model for an environmental transmitted disease characterized for the existence of three disease stages: acute, severe and asymptomatic. Besides, we consider that severe and asymptomatic cases may present relapse between them. Transmission dynamics driven by the contact rates only occurs when a parameter R∗>1, as normally occur in directly-transmitted or vector-transmitted diseases, but it will not adequately correspond to a basic reproductive number as it depends on environmental parameters. In this case, the forward transcritical bifurcation that exists for R∗<1, becomes a backward bifurcation, producing multiple steady-states, a hysteresis effect and dependence on initial conditions. A threshold parameter for an epidemic outbreak, independent of R∗ is only the ratio of the external contamination inflow shedding rate to the environmental clearance rate. R∗ describes the strength of the transmission to infectious classes other than the I-(acute) type infections. The epidemic outbreak conditions and the structure of R∗ appearing in this model are both responsible for the existence of endemic states.
Sujet(s)
Maladies transmissibles , Humains , Maladies transmissibles/transmission , Maladies transmissibles/épidémiologie , Taux de reproduction de base/statistiques et données numériques , Maladies endémiques/statistiques et données numériques , Épidémies de maladies , Modèles biologiques , Épidémies/statistiques et données numériques , Concepts mathématiques , Modèles théoriquesRÉSUMÉ
OBJECTIVE: To analyze the transmission dynamics of dengue, a public health problem in Brazil and the Metropolitan Region of Belo Horizonte (MRBH). METHODS: The spatiotemporal evolution of the occurrence of dengue in the municipality of Contagem, state of Minas Gerais, a region with high arbovirus transmission, was analyzed. Furthermore, epidemic and non-epidemic periods were analyzed, based on probable cases of dengue. This is an ecological study that used the Notifiable Diseases Information System (SINAN) national database. The analyses were carried out considering the period from epidemiological week (EW) 40 of 2011 to 39 of 2017. Spatial analysis tools (crude and smoothed incidence rate, directional distribution ellipse, global Moran index and local Moran index, and spatial scanning time with definition of epidemiological risk) were used. RESULTS: The 2012 to 2013 and 2015 to 2016 epidemic cycles presented high incidence rates. The disease was concentrated in more urbanized areas, with a small increase in cases throughout the municipality. Seven statistically significant local clusters and areas with a high rate of cases and accentuated transmission in epidemic cycles were observed throughout the municipality. Spatial autocorrelation of the incidence rate was observed in all periods. CONCLUSION: The results of the present study highlight a significant and heterogeneous increase in dengue notifications in Contagem over the years, revealing distinct spatial patterns during epidemic and non-epidemic periods. Geoprocessing analysis identified high-risk areas, a piece of knowledge that can optimize the allocation of resources in the prevention and treatment of the disease for that municipality.
Sujet(s)
Dengue , Épidémies , Analyse spatio-temporelle , Humains , Dengue/épidémiologie , Dengue/transmission , Brésil/épidémiologie , Incidence , Villes/épidémiologie , Facteurs temps , Notification des maladies/statistiques et données numériquesRÉSUMÉ
BACKGROUND: In most cases, Zika virus (ZIKV) causes a self-limited acute illness in adults, characterized by mild clinical symptoms that resolve within a few days. Immune responses, both innate and adaptive, play a central role in controlling and eliminating virus-infected cells during the early stages of infection. AIM: To test the hypothesis that circulating T cells exhibit phenotypic and functional activation characteristics during the viremic phase of ZIKV infection. METHODS: A comprehensive analysis using mass cytometry was performed on peripheral blood mononuclear cells obtained from patients with acute ZIKV infection (as confirmed by RT-PCR) and compared with that from healthy donors (HD). The frequency of IFN-γ-producing T cells in response to peptide pools covering immunogenic regions of structural and nonstructural ZIKV proteins was quantified using an ELISpot assay. RESULTS: Circulating CD4+ and CD8+ T lymphocytes from ZIKV-infected patients expressed higher levels of IFN-γ and pSTAT-5, as well as cell surface markers associated with proliferation (Ki-67), activation ((HLA-DR, CD38) or exhaustion (PD1 and CTLA-4), compared to those from HD. Activation of CD4+ and CD8+ memory T cell subsets, including Transitional Memory T Cells (TTM), Effector Memory T cells (TEM), and Effector Memory T cells Re-expressing CD45RA (TEMRA), was prominent among CD4+ T cell subset of ZIKV-infected patients and was associated with increased levels of IFN-γ, pSTAT-5, Ki-67, CTLA-4, and PD1, as compared to HD. Additionally, approximately 30% of ZIKV-infected patients exhibited a T cell response primarily directed against the ZIKV NS5 protein. CONCLUSION: Circulating T lymphocytes spontaneously produce IFN-γ and express elevated levels of pSTAT-5 during the early phase of ZIKV infection whereas recognition of ZIKV antigen results in the generation of virus-specific IFN-γ-producing T cells.