Trends in traffic accident mortality and social inequalities in Ecuador from 2011 to 2022.

BACKGROUND: Traffic accidents (TA) remain a significant global public health concern, impacting low-and middle-income countries. This study aimed to describe the trend in TA mortality and inequalities in Ecuador for 2011-2022, distributed by year, gender, age group, geographical location, type of accident, and social inequalities. METHODS: An ecological study was conducted using INEC national-level data on TA fatalities in Ecuador. Mortality rates were calculated per 100,000 population and analyzed by year, gender, age group, geographic region, and accident type. Annual percentage variation (APV) was determined using linear regression models. Inequality analyses examined associations between TA mortality and socioeconomic factors like per capita income and literacy rates. Complex measures such as the Slope Inequality Index (SII) were calculated to assess the magnitude of inequalities. RESULTS: There were 38,355 TA fatalities in Ecuador from 2011 to 2022, with an overall mortality rate of 19.4 per 100,000 inhabitants. The rate showed a non-significant decreasing trend (APV - 0.4%, p = 0.280). Males had significantly higher mortality rates than females (31.99 vs. 7.19 per 100,000), with the gender gap widening over time (APV 0.85%, p = 0.003). The Amazon region had the highest rate (24.4 per 100,000), followed by the Coast (20.4 per 100,000). Adults aged ≥ 60 years had the highest mortality (31.0 per 100,000), followed by those aged 25-40 years (28.6 per 100,000). The ≥ 60 age group showed the most significant rate decrease over time (APV - 2.25%, p < 0.001). Pedestrians were the most affected group after excluding unspecified accidents, with a notable decreasing trend (APV - 5.68%, p < 0.001). Motorcyclist fatalities showed an increasing trend, ranking third in TA-related deaths. Lower literacy rates and per capita income were associated with higher TA mortality risks. Inequality in TA mortality between provinces with the highest and lowest per capita income increased by 247.7% from 2011 to 2019, as measured by the SII. CONCLUSION: While overall TA mortality slightly decreased in Ecuador, significant disparities persist across demographic groups and geographic regions. Older adults, males, pedestrians, and economically disadvantaged populations face disproportionately higher risks. The increasing trend in motorcycle-related fatalities and widening socioeconomic inequalities are particularly concerning.

Variation in Non-external and External Causes of Death in Peru in Relation to the COVID-19 Lockdown.

Introduction: Lockdowns are designed to slow COVID-19 transmission, but they may have unanticipated relationships with other aspects of public health. Assessing the overall pattern in population health as a country implements and relaxes a lockdown is relevant, as these patterns may not necessarily be symmetric. We aimed to estimate the changing trends in cause-specific mortality in relation to the 2020 COVID-19 related lockdowns in Peru. Methods: Based on data from the Peruvian National Death Information System (SINADEF), we calculated death rates per 10 million population to assess the trends in mortality rates for non-external and external causes of death (suicides, traffic accidents, and homicides). We compared these trends to 2018-2019, before, during, and after the lockdown, stratified by sex, and adjusted by Peruvian macro-region (Lima & Callao (capital region), Coast, Highland, and Jungle). Results: Non-external deaths presented a distinctive pattern among macro-regions, with an early surge in the Jungle and a later increase in the Highland. External deaths dropped during the lockdown, however, suicides and homicides returned to previous levels in the post-lockdown period. Deaths due to traffic accidents dropped during the lockdown and returned to pre-pandemic levels by December 2020. Conclusions: We found a sudden drop in external causes of death, with suicides and homicides returning to previous levels after the lifting of the lockdown. Non-external deaths showed a differential pattern by macro-region. A close monitoring of these trends could help identify early spikes among these causes of death and take action to prevent a further increase in mortality indirectly affected by the pandemic.

The heartbeat of the city.

Human activity is organised around daily and weekly cycles, which should, in turn, dominate all types of social interactions, such as transactions, communications, gatherings and so on. Yet, despite their strategic importance for policing and security, cyclical weekly patterns in crime and road incidents have been unexplored at the city and neighbourhood level. Here we construct a novel method to capture the weekly trace, or "heartbeat" of events and use geotagged data capturing the time and location of more than 200,000 violent crimes and nearly one million crashes in Mexico City. On aggregate, our findings show that the heartbeats of crime and crashes follow a similar pattern. We observe valleys during the night and peaks in the evening, where the intensity during a peak is 7.5 times the intensity of valleys in terms of crime and 12.3 times in terms of road accidents. Although distinct types of events, crimes and crashes reach their respective intensity peak on Friday night and valley on Tuesday morning, the result of a hyper-synchronised society. Next, heartbeats are computed for city neighbourhood 'tiles', a division of space within the city based on the distance to Metro and other public transport stations. We find that heartbeats are spatially heterogeneous with some diffusion, so that nearby tiles have similar heartbeats. Tiles are then clustered based on the shape of their heartbeat, e.g., tiles within groups suffer peaks and valleys of crime or crashes at similar times during the week. The clusters found are similar to those based on economic activities. This enables us to anticipate temporal traces of crime and crashes based on local amenities.

Austerity policies in Brazil may affect violence related outcomes / Políticas de austeridade no Brasil podem afetar os desfechos relacionados à violência

Abstract Economic crisis is often managed with austerity policies. These measures seem to burden the population disproportionately, with the poorer being more affected. This paper aims to investigate health outcomes performance after the recent Brazilian crisis and gauge whether that pattern also emerged. Public domain data from 2010 to 2017 was used, and it was found that suicide and homicide rates increased after 2014, while mortality by road traffic injuries decreased at the same time. Furthermore, these trends were exacerbated in the North and Northeast regions and in the municipalities with the poorest quintiles of Human Development Index (HDI). The austerity policies followed by the Brazilian economic crisis may have influenced the mortality trends due to external causes, with a possible stronger impact in the North and Northeast regions and among less developed municipalities.

Resumo Crises econômicas são comumente administradas com políticas de austeridade. Estas medidas atingem a população de modo desproporcional, sendo os mais pobres os mais afetados. Este artigo pretende investigar a performance dos desfechos de saúde após a crise econômica recente e avaliar se o padrão de desproporcionalidade também ocorreu no Brasil. Dados públicos de 2010 a 2017 foram utilizados e encontramos que suicídios e taxas de homicídios aumentaram depois de 2014, enquanto mortalidade por acidentes de trânsito diminuíram. Além disto, estas tendências foram exacerbadas no Norte e no Nordeste e em municípios no quintil mais pobre em termos de Índice de Desenvolvimento Humano (IDH). As políticas de austeridade que se seguiram à crise econômica brasileira podem ter influenciado a tendência de mortalidade por causas externas, com um possível maior impacto no Norte e no Nordeste e em municípios menos desenvolvidos.

Austerity policies in Brazil may affect violence related outcomes.

Economic crisis is often managed with austerity policies. These measures seem to burden the population disproportionately, with the poorer being more affected. This paper aims to investigate health outcomes performance after the recent Brazilian crisis and gauge whether that pattern also emerged. Public domain data from 2010 to 2017 was used, and it was found that suicide and homicide rates increased after 2014, while mortality by road traffic injuries decreased at the same time. Furthermore, these trends were exacerbated in the North and Northeast regions and in the municipalities with the poorest quintiles of Human Development Index (HDI). The austerity policies followed by the Brazilian economic crisis may have influenced the mortality trends due to external causes, with a possible stronger impact in the North and Northeast regions and among less developed municipalities.

Fatalities by traffic in Maryland and Massachusetts evaluated in the context of a probabilistic random walk. / [Fatalidades por tránsito en Maryland y Massachusetts evaluadas en el contexto de una caminata al azar probabilista.]

Introduction: The analysis of injuries caused by traffic from a physical and mathematical perspective can help improve road safety strategies. Objective: Predict the dynamics of traffic fatalities in the states of Maryland and Massachusetts for the years 2004 and 2014 in the context of probabilistic random walk. Methods: An analysis was made of the number of total fatalities caused by traffic per year, in the states of Maryland and Massachusetts between the years 1994-2003 and 1994-2013. The behavior of these values was analyzed as a probabilistic random walk; for this, the probabilistic lengths were found for each year, during the period studied and four probability spaces were analyzed, with which it was possible to analyze their behavior, to establish a prediction of the number of total fatalities caused by traffic for the years 2004 and 2014. Results: The predictions for the years 2014 and 2004 for Maryland and Massachusetts when compared with the real values, the percentage of success was 98%. Main conclusion: The predictions for the years 2014 and 2004 for Maryland and Massachusetts when compared with the real values, the percentage of success was 98%. Conclusions: the behavior of traffic fatalities in Maryland and Massachusetts presented a predictable self-organization from the context of probabilistic random walk, constituting a useful tool for analyzing the operation of road safety strategies.

Antecedentes: El análisis de los accidentes de tránsito desde una perspectiva física y matemática puede ayudar a mejorar las estrategias viales de seguridad. Objetivo: Obtener una predicción de la dinámica de fatalidades a causa del tráfico en los estados de Maryland y Massachusetts para los años 2004 y 2014 en el contexto de la caminata al azar probabilista. Métodos: Se realizó un análisis del número de fatalidades totales causadas por el tráfico al año, en los estados de Maryland y Massachusetts entre los años 1994-2003 y 1994-2013. El comportamiento de estos valores fue analizado como una caminata al azar probabilista; para ello se hallaron las longitudes probabilistas para cada año, durante el periodo estudiado y se analizaron cuatro espacios de probabilidad, con los que fue posible analizar su comportamiento, para establecer una predicción del número de fatalidades totales causadas por el tráfico para los años 2004 y 2014. Resultados: Las predicciones para los años 2014 y 2004 para Maryland y Massachusetts al ser comparados con los valores reales el porcentaje de acierto fue del 98%. Conclusión principal: el comportamiento de las fatalidades de tráfico en Maryland y Massachusetts presentó una autoorganización predecible desde el contexto de la caminata al azar probabilista, constituyéndose como una herramienta útil para el análisis del funcionamiento de las estrategias de seguridad vial.

Do roadkill aggregations of wild and domestic mammals overlap? / ¿Se traslapan las agregaciones de atropellos de mamíferos silvestres y domésticos?

Abstract Domestic animals are involved in a large number of traffic accidents and they represent danger to humans due to their size. Despite this, few studies consider domestic animals. That is why we evaluate mammals' roadkill aggregations in order to locate them and to determine if wild and domestic mammals' roadkills overlap. In addition, we investigate the influence of the landscape on the location of the aggregations. This study was carried out on the BR-050 highway, an area of Cerrado biome, in Southeastern Brazil. The monitoring was executed from April 2012 to March 2013, by car, at an average speed of 60 km/h, with two observers looking for roadkills on the highway. We found 482 mammals' roadkills, including 260 (54 %) wild mammals, 164 (34 %) domestic and 58 (12.0 %) undetermined specimens. Of the 21 recorded mammal species, five were domestic. The wild mammals' roadkill rate was 0.03 (± 0.02) individuals/km/day and the domestic roadkill rate was 0.02 (± 0.01). We detected roadkill aggregations for wild and domestic mammals. Roadkill hotspots of domestic mammals and wild mammals did not overlap. The variables that had the highest influence on wild mammals' roadkill probability were: agriculture and silviculture cover as positive effects and distance to the nearest river, to the urban perimeter and to a natural fragment as negative effects. For domestic mammals these variables were: area of the smallest fragment and distance to a natural fragment as positive effects and silviculture cover as a negative effect. The explanation for the wild and domestic mammals' roadkill hotspot non overlapping seems to be the effect of each variable in determining the roadkill hotspot since their effect is different for wild and domestic mammals. On the other hand, this non overlapping can be a result of domestic mammals' scavenging habits. We propose different kinds of mitigation measures in order to reduce domestic and wild mammals' roadkill.(AU)

Resumen Los animales domésticos están involucrados en una gran cantidad de accidentes de tránsito y representan un peligro para los humanos debido a su tamaño. A pesar de esto, pocos estudios consideran a los animales domésticos. Es por eso que evaluamos agregaciones de atropellos de mamíferos, con el fin de ubicarlas y determinar si los atropellos de los mamíferos silvestres y domésticos se traslapan. Además, investigamos la influencia del paisaje en la ubicación de las agregaciones. Este estudio se realizó en la carretera BR-050, un área del bioma Cerrado, en el sureste de Brasil. El muestreo se ejecutó entre abril 2012 y marzo 2013, en automóvil, a una velocidad promedio de 60 km/h, y dos observadores buscaron animales atropellados en la carretera. Encontramos 482 mamíferos atropellados, incluidos 260 (54 %) mamíferos silvestres, 164 (34 %) ejemplares domésticos y 58 (12 %) especímenes indeterminados. De las 21 especies de mamíferos registradas, cinco fueron de origen doméstico. La tasa de mortalidad de mamíferos silvestres fue de 0.033 (± 0.018) individuos/km/día y la de domésticos de 0.020 (± 0.008). Detectamos agregaciones de atropellos para mamíferos silvestres y domésticos. Los "hotspots" de atropellos de mamíferos domésticos y silvestres no se traslapan. Las variables que tuvieron la mayor influencia positiva en la probabilidad de atropello de mamíferos silvestres fueron: cobertura de la agricultura y la silvicultura; mientras que distancia al río más cercano, al perímetro urbano y al fragmento natural tuvieron un efecto negativo. Para los mamíferos domésticos estas variables con un efecto positivo fueron: área del fragmento más pequeño y distancia al fragmento natural; en tanto que la cobertura de silvicultura tuvo un efecto negativo. El que no haya un traslape de los atropellos de mamíferos silvestres y domésticos se podría explicar por el efecto de cada variable en la determinación de los "hotspots" de atropellos, ya que su efecto es diferente para los mamíferos silvestres y domésticos. Por otro lado, el no traslape puede ser el resultado de los hábitos carroñeros de los mamíferos domésticos. Proponemos diferentes tipos de medidas de mitigación con el fin de reducir los atropellos de los mamíferos domésticos y salvajes.(AU)

Os acidentes de bicicleta no Brasil: uma revisão integrativa / The bicycle accident in Brazil: an integrative review / Los accidentes de bicicleta en Brasil: una revisión integradora

Objetivo: analisar a produção científica acerca dos acidentes de bicicleta produzidos no Brasil. Método: revisão integrativa com propósito de responder à questão "Qual o conhecimento científico já produzido no Brasil sobre acidentes de bicicleta?". Os dados foram coletados no período de junho a agosto de 2015 nas bases MEDLINE e LILACS, artigos em português e inglês, utilizando-se os descritores: "ciclismo", "acidentes de trânsito", "Brasil", "saúde pública", "epidemiologia" e "mortalidade". Resultados: Foram analisados 15 artigos agrupados em duas categorias: perfil epidemiológico das lesões e perfil epidemiológico dos acidentes. Conclusão: Nota-se ser necessário ampliar os estudos referentes a este tema, nos diferentes estados brasileiros, uma vez que os acidentes de bicicleta passaram a ter papel importante no campo da Saúde, em especial para a Enfermagem, que irá planejar e implementar cuidados com as vítimas

Objective: To analyse the scientific production in Brazil about bicycle accidents. Method: An integrated revision with the aim at responding to the question: "What Scientific Knowledge was already produced in Brazil about bicycle accidents?" The data was collected in the period of June to August, 2015, at the MEDLINE and LILACS databases; articles in Portuguese and English, using the following keywords: "cycling", "Traffic Accidents", "Brazil", "Public Health", "Epidemiology", and "Mortality". Results: Fifteen articles were analysed and grouped in two categories: The epidemiological profile of the lesions, and the epidemiological profile of the accidents. Conclusions: It is highlighted that it is necessary to broaden the studies referring to this issue, in the different Brazilian States, since bicycle accidents have taken an important role in the area of Healthcare, especially for Nursing, which is planning and implementing the victims care

Objetivo: analizar la producción científica acerca de los accidentes de bicicleta producidos en Brasil. Método: revisión integradora con propósito de responder a la cuestión "¿Cuál el conocimiento científico ya producido en Brasil sobre accidentes de bicicleta?" Los datos han sido recopilados en el período de junio hasta agosto de 2015 en las bases MEDLINE y LILACS, artículos en portugués e inglés, utilizándose los descriptores: "ciclismo", "accidentes de tránsito", "Brasil", "salud pública", "epidemiología" y "mortalidad". Resultados: Han sido analizados 15 artículos agrupados en dos categorías: perfil epidemiológico de las lesiones y perfil epidemiológico de los accidentes. Conclusiones: Observase ser necesario ampliar los estudios referentes a este tema, en los diferentes estados brasileños, una vez que los accidentes de bicicleta pasan a tener papel importante en el campo de la Salud, en especial para la Enfermería, que irá planificar y ejecutar cuidados con las víctimas

Mortalidade de pedestres em acidentes de trânsito no Brasil: análise de tendência temporal, 1996-2015 / Mortalidad de peatones en accidentes de tránsito en Brasil: análisis de tendencia temporal, 1996-2015 / Pedestrian mortality in road traffic accidents in Brazil: time trend analysis, 1996-2015

Objetivo: analisar a tendência do coeficiente de mortalidade dos acidentes de trânsito envolvendo pedestres, por sexo, faixa etária e macrorregião no Brasil, entre 1996 e 2015. Métodos: estudo ecológico de série temporal, com dados de mortalidade do Sistema de Informações sobre Mortalidade (SIM) do Ministério da Saúde; utilizaram-se regressões generalizadas lineares de Prais-Winstein para o cálculo da variação percentual anual. Resultados: óbitos de pedestres corresponderam a 26,5% das mortes por acidentes de trânsito; a mortalidade entre pedestres diminuiu 63,2% no país, com variação do coeficiente padronizado, de 8,9 para 3,3 para cada 100 mil habitantes, ressaltando-se que as regiões Norte e Nordeste apresentaram uma diminuição mais lenta em relação à média nacional; os atropelamentos são significativamente maiores entre homens e idosos. Conclusão: apesar de a mortalidade entre pedestres estar diminuindo em todas as regiões, os números atuais ainda representam uma grande parcela da mortalidade no trânsito.

Objetivo: analizar la tendencia de la tasa de mortalidad de los accidentes de tránsito involucrando peatones, por sexo, grupo de edad y macrorregión en Brasil, entre 1996 y 2015. Métodos: estudio ecológico de serie temporal, con datos de mortalidad del Sistema de Informaciones sobre Mortalidad (SIM) del Ministerio de Salud; se utilizaron regresiones generalizadas lineales de Prais-Winstein para el cálculo de la variación porcentual anual. Resultados: las muertes de peatones correspondieron al 26,5% de las muertes por accidentes de tránsito; la mortalidad entre peatones disminuyó un 63,2% en el país, con variación de la tasa estandarizada, de 8,9 para 3,3 por cada 100 mil habitantes, destacando que las regiones Norte y Nordeste presentaron una disminución más lenta en relación al promedio nacional; los atropellamientos son significativamente mayores entre hombres y ancianos. Conclusión: a pesar de que la mortalidad entre peatones está disminuyendo en todas las regiones, las cifras actuales todavía representan una gran parte de la mortalidad en el tránsito.

Objective: to analyze the mortality coefficient trend for road traffic accidents involving pedestrians in Brazil, by sex, age range and macro-region, between 1996 and 2015. Methods: this was an ecological time series study using data from the Ministry of Health's Mortality Information System (SIM); Prais-Winstein generalized linear regression was used to calculate annual percentage change. Results: pedestrian deaths corresponded to 26.5% of deaths due to road traffic accidents; mortality among pedestrians decreased 63.2% in the country as a whole, with the standardized coefficient varying between 8.9 to 3.3 per 100,000 inhabitants, although the decrease in the country's North and the Northeast regions was slower than the national average; being run over was significantly higher among men and the elderly. Conclusion: although mortality among pedestrians is decreasing in all regions of the country, current figures still account for a large part of road traffic mortality.

Profile and trend of risk factors for traffic accidents in schoolchildren in Brazilian capitals: PeNSE 2009, 2012 and 2015. / Perfil e tendência dos fatores de risco para acidentes de trânsito em escolares nas capitais brasileiras: PeNSE 2009, 2012 e 2015.

INTRODUCTION: Land transport accidents (LTA) are the second cause of death in schoolchildren aged 13 to 17 years. The study aims to describe the risk factors for LTA in schoolchildren from the National School Health Survey (PeNSE) of 2015 and to evaluate the trend of selected indicators in the last three editions of PeNSE. METHODOLOGY: A descriptive study on risk factors for LTA in 2015, with PeNSE data and time series trends analysis, with age-adjusted regression tests of the 2009, 2012 and 2015 editions, in Brazilian capitals. RESULTS: In 2015, 26.3% of ninth grade schoolchildren, mostly between 13 and 15 years of age, reported having been in a motor vehicle driven by someone who consumed alcohol and 32.4% had driven a motor vehicle; 30.7% of adolescents did not use seat belts in the back seat; and 16.8% of schoolchildren who ride motorcycles did not wear helmets. There was also a worsening of the indicators between 2009 and 2015, regarding driving a motor vehicle (1.0 percentage points) and having been driven by vehicle for consumption of alcoholic beverages (1.1 percentage points). DISCUSSION: The LTA occurrence results from the interaction between roads, vehicles and users, and has a strong correlation with behavior. CONCLUSIONS: The results show the need to invest in educational measures, associated with supervision, the improvement of road infrastructure, research and improvement of legislation. The monitoring of risk factors in schoolchildren substantially contributes to support intersectoral public policies interventions to reduce morbidity and mortality in traffic.

INTRODUÇÃO: Os acidentes de transporte terrestre (ATT) são a segunda causa de morte em escolares de 13 a 17 anos. O presente estudo visou descrever os fatores de risco para ATT em escolares da Pesquisa Nacional de Saúde do Escolar (PeNSE) de 2015 e avaliar a tendência de indicadores selecionados nas três últimas edições da PeNSE. METODOLOGIA: Estudo descritivo sobre fatores de risco para ATT no ano de 2015, com dados da PeNSE e análise de tendência das séries temporais, com testes de regressão ajustados por idade, das edições de 2009, 2012 e 2015, nas capitais brasileiras. RESULTADOS: Em 2015, 26,3% dos escolares do nono ano, na maioria entre 13 e 15 anos, relataram terem sido conduzidos em veículo motorizado dirigido por alguém que consumiu bebida alcoólica e 32,4% relataram terem dirigido veículo motorizado; 30,7% dos adolescentes não usaram cinto de segurança no banco de trás; e 16,8% dos escolares usuários de motocicleta não usaram capacetes. Observou-se ainda tendência de piora dos indicadores entre 2009 e 2015, referentes a dirigir veículo motorizado (1,0 pontos percentuais) e ter sido conduzido em veículo por alguém que consumiu bebida alcoólica (1,1 pontos percentuais). DISCUSSÃO: A ocorrência de ATT resulta da interação entre vias, veículos e usuários, tendo forte correlação com o comportamento. CONCLUSÕES: Os resultados apontam a necessidade de investir em medidas educativas, associadas a fiscalização, a melhoria das vias, pesquisas e aprimoramento da legislação. O monitoramento dos fatores de risco em escolares contribui substancialmente para apoiar intervenções das políticas públicas intersetoriais para a redução de morbimortalidade por trânsito.

Advances in Mexico in the middle of the Decade of Action for Road Safety 2011-2020.

OBJECTIVE: To analyze the progress towards the accomplishment of the expected goal in the middle of the Decade of Action for Road Safety 2011-2020 in Mexico and its states. METHODS: This is a secondary analysis of road traffic deaths in Mexico between 1999 and 2015. We projected the trend for the period 2011-2020 using a time series analysis (autoregressive integrated moving average models). We used the value of the Aikaike Information Criterion to determine the best model for the national level and its 32 states. RESULTS: Mexico is progressing, approaching the proposed goal, which translates into 10,856 potentially prevented deaths in the five-year period from 2011 to 2015. This was due to a decrease in the number of deaths of motor vehicle occupants, as the deaths of pedestrians and motorcyclists were higher than expected. At least one third of the states had values below their goal; although the mortality rate remains unacceptably high in five of them. We identified four states with more deaths than those originally projected and other states with an increasing trend; thus, both cases need to strengthen their prevention actions. CONCLUSIONS: The analysis can allow us to see the progress of the country in the middle of the Decade of Action, as well as identify the challenges in the prevention of traffic injuries in vulnerable users. It contributes with elements that provide a basis for a need to rethink both the national goal and the goal of the different states.

Is Brazil going to achieve the road traffic deaths target? An analysis about the sustainable development goals.

OBJECTIVE: To describe the temporal relationship between the road traffic mortality rate and gross domestic product (GDP) per capita in Brazil, and make an annual prediction of the evolution of both indicators until 2020, the end of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) monitoring period. METHODS: Brazilian road traffic mortality rate official data were described from 2000 to 2015, while the GDP per capita official data were described from 2000 to 2013. GDP per capita and traffic mortality rate predictions were performed until 2020 using fractional polynomial analysis. Correlations were assessed using Pearson's correlation coefficient. RESULTS: From 2000 to 2015, there were over 446 000 road crashes fatal victims in Brazil. The road traffic mortality rate was positively related to the Brazilian GDP per capita, with a strong correlation (r=0.89; p<0.001) from 2000 to 2013 and a mild correlation (r=0.55; p<0.001) considering the whole period (2000-2020). The predictions show a reduction on the road traffic mortality rates in Brazil; however, if this same reduction pace continues, we estimate that the country will reach 12.4 road crash deaths per 100 000 inhabitants in 2020, a reduction of only 13.4% compared with 2015. CONCLUSION: If the same mortality reduction pace continues in Brazil, the country will not reach the proposed SDG, which is to reduce by half the number of deaths per 100 000 inhabitants. In addition, an intertwined conciliation between economical growth, sustainable development and public policies is needed in order to meet such an overwhelming goal.

Joinpoint regression analysis to evaluate traffic public health policies by national temporal trends from 2000 to 2015.

In the past 16 years, a variety of factors might have impacted traffic accidents in Chile. In order to identify and quantify differential rates of change over time this study employed a novel analytic method to assess temporal trends in traffic morbi-mortality. Overall death and injury rates and associated to alcohol per 100,000 inhabitants were monitored between 2000 and 2015. Joinpoint regression was used to calculate annual percent changes (APCs) and average APCs. Permutation tests were used to determine joinpoints. P < 0.05 was considered statistically significant. The rate of traffic deaths related to alcohol declined from 2006 until 2015 at a rate of 9.53% per year. The rate of traffic injuries related to alcohol decreased at a rate of 4.32% per year since 2008 to 2015. The use of the most sensitive approach to trend analysis brings new ele-ments to form the epidemiological analyses in Chile and similar countries.

Tendências da mortalidade por acidentes de transporte terrestre no município de Goiânia, Brasil, 2006-2014 / Tendencias de la mortalidad por accidentes de transporte terrestre en el municipio de Goiânia, Brasil, 2006-2014 / Trends in mortality due to road traffic accidents in the municipality of Goiânia, Brazil, 2006-2014*

Objetivo: estimar tendências da mortalidade por acidentes de transporte terrestre (ATT) em Goiânia, de 2006 a 2014. Métodos: estudo ecológico com dados do Sistema de Informações sobre Mortalidade (SIM), e dados populacionais do DATASUS e Prefeitura de Goiânia. Foi realizada análise das séries temporais de mortalidade por ATT padronizada. Resultados: foram incluídos 3.347 óbitos. Verificaram-se tendências significativas de mortalidade: pedestres (taxa de incremento médio anual percentual - TIA%: -4,7; IC95% -8,2;-1,1) e automóveis (TIA%: 2,6; IC95% 0,2;5,1), em Goiânia; pedestres (TIA%: -11,3; IC95% -20,7;-0,8), motocicletas (TIA%: -13,5; IC95% -19,0;-7,7) e automóveis (TIA%: 12,9; IC95% 2,6;24,2), no Distrito Sul; pedestres (TIA%: -7,8; IC95% -14,0;-1,2), no Distrito Oeste, e automóveis (TIA%: -7,4; IC95% -13,8;-0,5), no Distrito Campinas-Centro. As demais séries apresentaram estacionariedade. Conclusão: Goiânia apresentou redução da mortalidade por ATT para pedestres e aumento para ocupantes de automóveis. Nos distritos sanitários, foi observada redução para pedestres/motocicletas no Sul e aumento para automóveis. Houve redução para pedestres e automóveis nos distritos Oeste e Campinas-Centro, respectivamente.

Objetivo: estimar tendencias de la mortalidad por Accidentes de Transporte Terrestre (ATT) en Goiânia (2006 a 2014). Métodos: estudio ecológico con datos del Sistema de Información sobre Mortalidad, y datos poblacionales del DATASUS y Intendencia de Goiânia. Se realizó un análisis de las series temporales de mortalidad por ATT estandarizado. Resultados: se incluyeron 3.347 muertes. Se observaron tendencias significativas de mortalidad: peatones [tasa de incremento promedio anual porcentual (TIA%):-4,7; IC95%-8,2;-1,1]; automóviles (TIA%:2,6; IC95%0,2;5,1) en Goiânia; peatones (TIA%:-11,3; IC95%-20,7;-0,8), motocicletas(TIA%:-13,5;IC95%-19,0;-7,7)y automóviles (TIA%:12,9; IC95%2,6;24,2) en el Distrito Sur; peatones (TIA%:-7,8; IC95%-14,0;-1,2) en el Distrito Oeste; (TIA%:-7,4; IC95%-13,8;-0,5) en el Distrito Campinas Centro. Otras series se presentaron estacionarias. Conclusión: Goiânia presentó reducción de la mortalidad por ATT para peatones, y aumento de la de ocupantes de automóviles. En los distritos sanitarios se observó reducción para peatones/motocicletas en el Sur y aumento para automóviles. Hubo reducción para peatones/automóviles en el Oeste y en Campinas Centro respectivamente.

Objective: to estimate mortality trends for Road Traffic Accidents (RTA) in Goiânia (2006-2014). Methods: this was an ecological study with Mortality Information System data and population data from DATASUS and Goiânia City Government. We analyzed the time series for mortality from standardized RTA. Results: 3,347 deaths were included. We found significant mortality trends: pedestrians (average percentage annual increment rate - %AIR: -4.7; 95%CI -8.2;-1.1) and automobiles (%AIR: 2.6; 95%CI0.2;5.1) in Goiânia as a whole, pedestrians (%AIR: -11.3; 95%CI-20.7;-0.8), motorcycles (%AIR -13.5; 95%CI -19.0;-7.7) and automobiles (%AIR: 12.9; 95%CI2.6;24.2) in the city's Southern District, pedestrians (%AIR: -7.8; 95%CI-14.0;-1.2) in the Western District and automobiles (%AIR: -7.4; 95% 95%CI -13.8;-0.5) in the Campinas-Center District. The other time series remained stationary. Conclusion: The RTA mortality rate in Goiânia as a whole reduced for pedestrians and increased for automobiles. In the city's health districts, the rate reduced for pedestrians/motorcycles and increased for automobiles in the Southern District. The rate reduced for pedestrians and automobiles in the Western and Campinas-Center Districts respectively.

Perfil e tendência dos fatores de risco para acidentes de trânsito em escolares nas capitais brasileiras: PeNSE 2009, 2012 e 2015 / Profile and trend of risk factors for traffic accidents in schoolchildren in Brazilian capitals: PeNSE 2009, 2012 and 2015

RESUMO: Introdução: Os acidentes de transporte terrestre (ATT) são a segunda causa de morte em escolares de 13 a 17 anos. O presente estudo visou descrever os fatores de risco para ATT em escolares da Pesquisa Nacional de Saúde do Escolar (PeNSE) de 2015 e avaliar a tendência de indicadores selecionados nas três últimas edições da PeNSE. Metodologia: Estudo descritivo sobre fatores de risco para ATT no ano de 2015, com dados da PeNSE e análise de tendência das séries temporais, com testes de regressão ajustados por idade, das edições de 2009, 2012 e 2015, nas capitais brasileiras. Resultados: Em 2015, 26,3% dos escolares do nono ano, na maioria entre 13 e 15 anos, relataram terem sido conduzidos em veículo motorizado dirigido por alguém que consumiu bebida alcoólica e 32,4% relataram terem dirigido veículo motorizado; 30,7% dos adolescentes não usaram cinto de segurança no banco de trás; e 16,8% dos escolares usuários de motocicleta não usaram capacetes. Observou-se ainda tendência de piora dos indicadores entre 2009 e 2015, referentes a dirigir veículo motorizado (1,0 pontos percentuais) e ter sido conduzido em veículo por alguém que consumiu bebida alcoólica (1,1 pontos percentuais). Discussão: A ocorrência de ATT resulta da interação entre vias, veículos e usuários, tendo forte correlação com o comportamento. Conclusões: Os resultados apontam a necessidade de investir em medidas educativas, associadas a fiscalização, a melhoria das vias, pesquisas e aprimoramento da legislação. O monitoramento dos fatores de risco em escolares contribui substancialmente para apoiar intervenções das políticas públicas intersetoriais para a redução de morbimortalidade por trânsito.

ABSTRACT: Introduction: Land transport accidents (LTA) are the second cause of death in schoolchildren aged 13 to 17 years. The study aims to describe the risk factors for LTA in schoolchildren from the National School Health Survey (PeNSE) of 2015 and to evaluate the trend of selected indicators in the last three editions of PeNSE. Methodology: A descriptive study on risk factors for LTA in 2015, with PeNSE data and time series trends analysis, with age-adjusted regression tests of the 2009, 2012 and 2015 editions, in Brazilian capitals. Results: In 2015, 26.3% of ninth grade schoolchildren, mostly between 13 and 15 years of age, reported having been in a motor vehicle driven by someone who consumed alcohol and 32.4% had driven a motor vehicle; 30.7% of adolescents did not use seat belts in the back seat; and 16.8% of schoolchildren who ride motorcycles did not wear helmets. There was also a worsening of the indicators between 2009 and 2015, regarding driving a motor vehicle (1.0 percentage points) and having been driven by vehicle for consumption of alcoholic beverages (1.1 percentage points). Discussion: The LTA occurrence results from the interaction between roads, vehicles and users, and has a strong correlation with behavior. Conclusions: The results show the need to invest in educational measures, associated with supervision, the improvement of road infrastructure, research and improvement of legislation. The monitoring of risk factors in schoolchildren substantially contributes to support intersectoral public policies interventions to reduce morbidity and mortality in traffic.

Advances in Mexico in the middle of the decade of action for road safety 2011-2020 / Avances en México a la mitad del decenio de acción para la seguridad vial 2011-2020

ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE To analyze the progress towards the accomplishment of the expected goal in the middle of the Decade of Action for Road Safety 2011-2020 in Mexico and its states. METHODS This is a secondary analysis of road traffic deaths in Mexico between 1999 and 2015. We projected the trend for the period 2011-2020 using a time series analysis (autoregressive integrated moving average models). We used the value of the Aikaike Information Criterion to determine the best model for the national level and its 32 states. RESULTS Mexico is progressing, approaching the proposed goal, which translates into 10,856 potentially prevented deaths in the five-year period from 2011 to 2015. This was due to a decrease in the number of deaths of motor vehicle occupants, as the deaths of pedestrians and motorcyclists were higher than expected. At least one third of the states had values below their goal; although the mortality rate remains unacceptably high in five of them. We identified four states with more deaths than those originally projected and other states with an increasing trend; thus, both cases need to strengthen their prevention actions. CONCLUSIONS The analysis can allow us to see the progress of the country in the middle of the Decade of Action, as well as identify the challenges in the prevention of traffic injuries in vulnerable users. It contributes with elements that provide a basis for a need to rethink both the national goal and the goal of the different states.

RESUMEN OBJETIVO Analizar el avance de la meta esperada a mitad del Decenio de Acción para la Seguridad Vial 2011-2020 en México y sus entidades federativas. MÉTODOS Análisis secundario de las muertes por accidentes de tránsito en México para el 1999-2015. Se proyectó la tendencia para el periodo 2011-2020 utilizando análisis de series de tiempo (modelos autorregresivos integrados de medias móviles). Se utilizó el valor del Criterio de Información de Aikaike para determinar el mejor modelo para el nivel nacional y sus 32 entidades federativas. RESULTADOS México va avanzando cercano a la meta propuesta, lo que se ha traducido en 10,856 defunciones potencialmente prevenidas en el quinquenio 2011 a 2015. Esto ha sido a expensas de una disminución en el número de muertes de ocupantes de vehículos de motor; ya que las muertes en peatones y motociclistas han ido por arriba de lo que se esperaba. Al menos una tercera parte de las entidades federativas tuvo el número de defunciones por debajo de su meta; aunque en cinco de ellas la tasa de mortalidad continúa inaceptablemente alta. Se identificaron cuatro entidades con más muertes que las proyectadas originalmente y otras con tendencia al incremento donde se requiere, para ambos casos, fortalecer las acciones de prevención. CONCLUSIONES El análisis realizado permite observar los avances del país a mitad del Decenio de Acción, así como identificar los retos en materia de prevención de lesiones causadas por el tránsito en usuarios vulnerables. Aporta elementos para soportar la necesidad de replantear tanto la meta nacional como la de las distintas entidades federativas.

Alcohol and Road Traffic Injuries in Latin America and the Caribbean: A Case-Crossover Study.

BACKGROUND: This study reports dose-response estimates for the odds ratio (OR) and population attributable risk of acute alcohol use and road traffic injury (RTI). METHODS: Data were analyzed on 1,119 RTI patients arriving at 16 emergency departments (EDs) in Argentina, Brazil, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, Guatemala, Guyana, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, and Trinidad and Tobago. Case-crossover analysis, pair-matching the number of standard drinks consumed within the 6 hours prior to the RTI with 2 control periods (prior d/wk), was performed using fractional polynomial analysis for dose-response. RESULTS: About 1 in 6 RTI patients in EDs were positive for self-reported alcohol 6 hours prior to the injury (country range 8.6 to 24.1%). The likelihood of an RTI with any drinking prior (compared to not drinking) was 5 times higher (country range OR 2.50 to 15.00) and the more a person drinks the higher the risk. Every drink (12.8 g alcohol) increased the risk of an RTI by 13%, even 1 to 2 drinks were associated with a sizable increase in risk of an RTI and a dose-response was found. Differences in ORs for drivers (OR = 3.51; 95% CI = 2.25 to 5.45), passengers (OR = 8.12; 95% CI = 4.22 to 15.61), and pedestrians (OR = 6.30; 95% CI = 3.14 to 12.64) and attributable fractions were noted. Acute use of alcohol was attributable to 14% of all RTIs, varying from 7% for females to 19% for being injured as a passenger. CONCLUSIONS: The finding that the presence of alcohol increases risk among drivers and nondrivers alike may further help to urge interventions targeting passengers and pedestrians. Routine screening and brief interventions in all health services could also have a beneficial impact in decreasing rates of RTIs. Higher priority should be given to alcohol as a risk factor for RTIs, particularly in Latin America and the Caribbean.

Evaluación de los riesgos ocupacionales asociados a indicadores bioquímicos en conductores profesionales / Evaluation of occupational risks associated to biochemical indicators in professional drivers

Introducción: en el campo de la Seguridad y Salud Laboral, el transporte por carretera sigue enfrentándose a una serie de condicionantes. La implantación de actuaciones en materia preventiva en las empresas del sector se viene realizando de una manera gradual, impulsada por el interés de las administraciones estatales y autonómicas, empresarios y trabajadores, y sus organizaciones respectivas. Objetivo: evaluar ergonómicamente los principales riesgos asociados a dicha actividad. Materiales y métodos: la evaluación consta de tres fases: la identificación y evaluación de riesgos a que están sometidos los conductores profesionales, la valoración de patologías potenciales asociadas a la actividad, la identificación de indicadores bioquímicos comprometidos con la actividad. Resultados: se destaca en la primera fase los accidentes de tránsito, los períodos largos de conducción sin descanso y las características de la vía. La segunda fase se desarrolla a partir de un reconocimiento médico y una encuesta para conocer las patologías potenciales, señalándose a los trastornos músculo-esqueléticos, la diabetes, los trastornos gastrointestinales y las alteraciones cardiovasculares como las de mayor presencia. En la tercera y última fase se analizan los indicadores bioquímicos: colesterol, glucosa, triglicéridos y apolipoproteína B. Finalmente se muestran las causas que pudieran condicionarlos, así como algunos elementos que deben ser considerados para minimizar su influencia en la salud de los conductores. Conclusiones: como resultado de la evaluación se determinaron los principales riesgos ergonómicos y se reafirma el criterio existente de considerar que las profesiones estresantes comprometen a diversas estructuras somáticas y sensoriales, cuyas manifestaciones son medibles y permiten inferir el desgaste sufrido por el organismo (AU).

Introduction: in the field of Occupational Security and Health, highway transportation is still affronting a series of conditionings. The implantation of preventive actions in transport enterprises is been taking place gradually, forced by the interest of government and autonomic administrations, businessmen and workers and their respective organizations. Aim: to evaluate ergonomically the main risks associated to driving. Materials and Methods: the evaluation has three stages: the identification and assessment of the risks professional drivers are at, the assessment of potential pathologies associated to the activity, the identification of bio-chemical indicators involved in the activity. Outcomes: driving long periods without break and highway’s characteristics stood out in the first stage. The second stage is developed beginning from a medical examination and a survey to know the potential pathologies, being the musculoskeletal disorders, diabetes, gastrointestinal and cardiovascular disorders the ones with higher presence. In the first and last stage biochemical indicators are analyzed: cholesterol, glucose, triglycerides and apolipoprotein B. Finally, the causes that may condition them are showed, and also several elements that should be considered to minimize their influence on drivers´ health. Conclusions: the main ergonomic risks were determined as a result of the assessment and it also was reaffirmed the existent criteria of considering that stressing professions compromise several somatic and sensorial structures, the manifestations of which are measurable and allow to infer the burnout the organism suffered (AU).

A multivariate-based conflict prediction model for a Brazilian freeway.

Real-time collision risk prediction models relying on traffic data can be useful in dynamic management systems seeking at improving traffic safety. Models have been proposed to predict crash occurrence and collision risk in order to proactively improve safety. This paper presents a multivariate-based framework for selecting variables for a conflict prediction model on the Brazilian BR-290/RS freeway. The Bhattacharyya Distance (BD) and Principal Component Analysis (PCA) are applied to a dataset comprised of variables that potentially help to explain occurrence of traffic conflicts; the parameters yielded by such multivariate techniques give rise to a variable importance index that guides variables removal for later selection. Next, the selected variables are inserted into a Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA) model to estimate conflict occurrence. A matched control-case technique is applied using traffic data processed from surveillance cameras at a segment of a Brazilian freeway. Results indicate that the variables that significantly impacted on the model are associated to total flow, difference between standard deviation of lanes' occupancy, and the speed's coefficient of variation. The model allowed to asses a characteristic behavior of major Brazilian's freeways, by identifying the Brazilian typical heterogeneity of traffic pattern among lanes, which leads to aggressive maneuvers. Results also indicate that the developed LDA-PCA model outperforms the LDA-BD model. The LDA-PCA model yields average 76% classification accuracy, and average 87% sensitivity (which measures the rate of conflicts correctly predicted).

[Time-trend analysis of homicide and traffic accident mortality in Foz do Iguaçu, Brazil, 2000-2010]. / Análise temporal da mortalidade por homicídios e acidentes de trânsito em Foz do Iguaçu, 2000-2010.

OBJECTIVE: to perform time-trend analysis of homicide and land transport accident (LTA) mortality in Foz do Iguaçu city, Brazil, 2000-2010. METHODS: this was a time series study, using Mortality Information System data on people resident in the city; death rates by sex were calculated and standardized by age; Prais-Winsten regression was used. RESULTS: 3,459 deaths were recorded in the period (881 owing to LTA and 2,578 owing to homicides); the highest homicide mortality rate was 104.6 per 100,000 inhabitants in 2006, whilst for LTA it was 35.9 per 100,000 inhabitants in 2010; LTA and homicide mortality rates showed stability; higher mortality rates were found in the 20-39 age group. CONCLUSION: the maintenance high homicide and LTA mortality rates point to the need to pay greater attention to these problems.