[Progress of schistosomiasis control in People's Republic of China in 2023].

To understand the progress of national schistosomiasis elimination program of China in 2023 and summarize the lessons and experiences, data on the endemic status of schistosomiasis and national schistosomiasis surveillance results in the People's Republic of China were collected and analyzed at a national level. By the end of 2023, Shanghai Municipality, Zhejiang Province, Fujian Province, Guangdong Province and Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region continued to consolidate the achievements of schistosomiasis elimination, and Sichuan and Jiangsu provinces maintained the criteria of transmission interruption, while Yunnan and Hubei provinces were identified to achieve the criteria of transmission interruption in 2020, and Anhui, Jiangxi and Hunan provinces achieved the criteria of transmission interruption in 2023. A total of 451 counties (cites, districts) were found to be endemic for schistosomiasis in China in 2023, including 26 250 endemic villages covering 73 034 500 residents at risk of infections. Among the 451 endemic counties (cities, districts), 78.49% (354/451) achieved the criteria of schistosomiasis elimination and 21.51% (97/451) achieved the criteria of transmission interruption, respectively. In 2023, a total of 4 216 643 individuals received immunological tests, with 47 794 sero-positives identified, and a total of 184 216 individuals received parasitological examinations, with 4 egg-positives detected. A total of 27 768 cases with advanced schistosomiasis were documented in China by the end of 2023. In 2023, 539 548 bovines were raised in schistosomiasis-endemic areas of China, and 125 440 bovines received immunological tests, with 124 sero-positives detected, while no egg-positives were identified among the 133 508 bovines receiving parasitological examinations. In 2023, snail survey was performed at an area of 641 339.53 hm2 and 184 819.77 hm2 snail habitats were identified, including 51.53 hm2 emerging snail habitats and 642.25 hm2 reemerging snail habitats. In 2023, there were 20 198 schistosomiasis patients receiving praziquantel chemotherapy, and 598 183 person-time individuals and 283 954 herdtime bovines were given expanded chemotherapy. In 2023, snail control with chemical treatment was performed in 116 347.95 hm2 snail habitats, and the actual area of chemical treatment was 65 690.89 hm2, while environmental improvements were performed in snail habitats covering an area of 1 334.62 hm2. The national schistosomiasis surveillance results showed that the mean prevalence of Schistosoma japonicum infections were both zero among humans and bovines in 2023, and no S. japonicum infection was detected in snails. These data demonstrated that transmission interruption of schistosomiasis had been achieved across all endemic provinces in China in 2023, and the endemic status of schistosomiasis tended to be stable, while advanced cases were predominant among all schistosomiasis cases. However, the areas of snail habitats remained high and cattle re-raising was very common in some regions. Intensified schistosomiasis surveillance and forecast and snail control in high-risk areas are needed.

Mathematical Assessment of the Role of Human Behavior Changes on SARS-CoV-2 Transmission Dynamics in the United States.

The COVID-19 pandemic has not only presented a major global public health and socio-economic crisis, but has also significantly impacted human behavior towards adherence (or lack thereof) to public health intervention and mitigation measures implemented in communities worldwide. This study is based on the use of mathematical modeling approaches to assess the extent to which SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics is impacted by population-level changes of human behavior due to factors such as (a) the severity of transmission (such as disease-induced mortality and level of symptomatic transmission), (b) fatigue due to the implementation of mitigation interventions measures (e.g., lockdowns) over a long (extended) period of time, (c) social peer-pressure, among others. A novel behavior-epidemiology model, which takes the form of a deterministic system of nonlinear differential equations, is developed and fitted using observed cumulative SARS-CoV-2 mortality data during the first wave in the United States. The model fits the observed data, as well as makes a more accurate prediction of the observed daily SARS-CoV-2 mortality during the first wave (March 2020-June 2020), in comparison to the equivalent model which does not explicitly account for changes in human behavior. This study suggests that, as more newly-infected individuals become asymptomatically-infectious, the overall level of positive behavior change can be expected to significantly decrease (while new cases may rise, particularly if asymptomatic individuals have higher contact rate, in comparison to symptomatic individuals).

Environmental and Mobility Strategies During Early COVID-19: Insights From an Empirical Study Focusing on Park Visitations in El Paso, TX.

OBJECTIVES: We explored the importance of environmental and mobility strategies during early COVID-19 by age and ethnicity and investigated predictors of park visitations considering the COVID-19 impacts. BACKGROUND: Parks are safe and accessible venues to stay active and reduce social isolation, which is especially important considering COVID-19 and the associated lockdowns. METHODS: We analyzed online survey data from 683 residents (collected July 2020) of El Paso, TX, and objective measures of neighborhood park characteristics. Chi-square tests and mixed-effects logistic regression analyses were performed to examine the environmental/mobility strategies, personal and environmental factors, and park visitations, considering the COVID-19 impacts. RESULTS: The percentage of those who visited (1+ times/week) parks or trails/paths in the neighborhood dropped from 41.7% to 19.5% since the start of COVID-19 (OR = 0.015, p < .001). Before COVID-19, middle-aged and older adults were less likely to visit parks than younger adults, while this difference became insignificant during early COVID-19. Hispanic adults were more likely to visit parks than non-Hispanics both before and during early COVID-19. Positive environmental predictors of park visitations included park availability in the neighborhood, proximity to the closest park, seeing people being physically active in the neighborhood, and neighborhood aesthetics. CONCLUSIONS: Proximately located parks, trails, and paths well integrated into residential communities, and high aesthetic quality of the neighborhood are the potential features of pandemic-resilient communities and should be considered an important national priority to maintain and promote the health and well-being of the population, especially during pandemics like COVID-19.

Japanese Local Governments' Dissemination Activities for Advance Care Planning: A Descriptive Analysis of a Nationwide Survey during the COVID-19 Pandemic.

This study aims to compare the awareness-raising activities between municipalities with and without focused anti-infection measures during the 2019 coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic. Descriptive analysis was conducted using a nationwide self-administered questionnaire survey on municipalities' activities for residents and for healthcare providers and care workers (HCPs) in October 2022 in Japan. This study included 433 municipalities that had conducted awareness-raising activities before 2019 Fiscal Year. Workshops for residents were conducted in 85.2% of the municipalities, and they were more likely to be conducted in areas with focused anti-infection measures than those without measures (86.8% vs. 75.4%). Additionally, 85.9% of the municipalities were impacted by the pandemic; 50.1% canceled workshops, while 26.0% switched to a web-based style. Activities for HCPs were conducted in 55.2-63.7% of the municipalities, and they were more likely to be conducted in areas with focused anti-infection measures. A total of 50.6-62.1% of the municipalities changed their workshops for HCPs to a web-based style. Comparisons between areas with and without focused anti-infection measures indicated that the percentages of those impacted for all activities were not significantly different. In conclusion, awareness-raising activities in municipalities were conducted with new methods during the COVID-19 pandemic. Using information technology is essential to further promote such activities for residents.

Determinants of malaria infections among children in refugee settlements in Uganda during 2018-2019.

BACKGROUND: While 5% of 247 million global malaria cases are reported in Uganda, it is also a top refugee hosting country in Africa, with over 1.36 million refugees. Despite malaria being an emerging challenge for humanitarian response in refugee settlements, little is known about its risk factors. This study aimed to investigate the risk factors for malaria infections among children under 5 years of age in refugee settlements in Uganda. METHODS: We utilized data from Uganda's Malaria Indicator Survey which was conducted between December 2018 and February 2019 at the peak of malaria season. In this national survey, household level information was obtained using standardized questionnaires and a total of 7787 children under 5 years of age were tested for malaria using mainly the rapid diagnostic test. We focused on 675 malaria tested children under five in refugee settlements located in Yumbe, Arua, Adjumani, Moyo, Lamwo, Kiryadongo, Kyegegwa, Kamwenge and Isingiro districts. The extracted variables included prevalence of malaria, demographic, social-economic and environmental information. Multivariable logistic regression was used to identify and define the malaria associated risk factors. RESULTS: Overall, malaria prevalence in all refugee settlements across the nine hosting districts was 36.6%. Malaria infections were higher in refugee settlements located in Isingiro (98.7%), Kyegegwa (58.6%) and Arua (57.4%) districts. Several risk factors were significantly associated with acquisition of malaria including fetching water from open water sources [adjusted odds ratio (aOR) = 1.22, 95% CI: 0.08-0.59, P = 0.002], boreholes (aOR = 2.11, 95% CI: 0.91-4.89, P = 0.018) and water tanks (aOR = 4.47, 95% CI: 1.67-11.9, P = 0.002). Other factors included pit-latrines (aOR = 1.48, 95% CI: 1.03-2.13, P = 0.033), open defecation (aOR = 3.29, 95% CI: 1.54-7.05, P = 0.002), lack of insecticide treated bed nets (aOR = 1.15, 95% CI: 0.43-3.13, P = 0.003) and knowledge on the causes of malaria (aOR = 1.09, 95% CI: 0.79-1.51, P = 0.005). CONCLUSIONS: The persistence of the malaria infections were mainly due to open water sources, poor hygiene, and lack of preventive measures that enhanced mosquito survival and infection. Malaria elimination in refugee settlements requires an integrated control approach that combines environmental management with other complementary measures like insecticide treated bed nets, indoor residual spraying and awareness.

Impact of COVID-19 on Acute Myocardial Infarction Care.

The global health crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic has evolved rapidly to overburden health care organizations around the world and has resulted in significant morbidity and mortality. Many countries have reported a substantial and rapid reduction in hospital admissions for acute coronary syndromes and percutaneous coronary intervention. The reasons for such abrupt changes in health care delivery are multifactorial and include lockdowns, reduction in outpatient services, reluctance to seek medical attention for fear of contracting the virus, and restrictive visitation policies adopted during the pandemic. This review discusses the impact of COVID-19 on important aspects of acute MI care.

Mental health of Scandinavians during the first lockdown in the COVID-19 pandemic: Psychosocial resources and coping strategies as protective or risk factors for anxiety and depression.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic was a global health and economic crisis. In the early phase of the pandemic, studies found that populations were reporting lower levels of mental well-being and high levels of distress and worry. This study investigated potential protective and risk factors such as sociodemographics and psychological factors such as adaptation/coping. METHODS: Two convenience samples from Norway and Denmark were recruited during the early phase of the first lockdown in May 2020 using snowball sampling primarily by social media. Measures included the Patient Health Questionnaire-4 (PHQ-4) for screening anxiety and depression, COVID-19 distress, and coping strategies applied during the lockdown. Descriptive analyses were applied as well as bivariate correlations for associations between coping and mental health measures. RESULTS: Levels of anxiety and depression were not alarmingly high, but being young, single, and female constituted a higher risk for poorer mental health. Applying positive reframing strategies was negatively associated with poor mental health and high COVID-19 stress, whereas distraction coping strategies were positively correlated with poor mental health and high COVID-19 stress. CONCLUSION: Applying positive reframing as a coping strategy may constitute a protective factor for mental health in the early phase of a crisis such as a pandemic. This knowledge may inform public health agencies on how to promote mental health in similar situations in the future. However, longitudinal and qualitative studies are needed to investigate the long-term effects of the different coping strategies applied.

Symptoms of distress among young Danes during the national lockdown in May 2020.

Objectives of this study were to assess (1) prevalence of worries and symptoms of distress, and (2) perceived change in symptoms of distress by sociodemographic factors and preexisting vulnerabilities, among young Danes under the first COVID-19 related lockdown. Data were derived from online surveys, collected 7th-18th of May 2020. The study population included 11,245 young people (15-20 years of age), of which 1807 had participated in The Danish National Youth Study 2019 (DNYS19). Descriptive statistics and linear regressions analyses, including robust standard errors, were performed. All analyses were based on cross-sectional data, except analyses of preexisting vulnerabilities among responders from DNYS19. Few young people were very worried to get infected with coronavirus. Females reported a higher frequency of symptoms of distress than males. Perceived change in symptoms of distress, did not vary systematically based on age, cohabitation, nor physical health conditions. Individuals working, perceived a lower increase in symptoms of distress, than those studying etc. Females with symptoms of anxiety pre-pandemic, mental health disorders, and in families with economic hardship had a marginal higher perceived increase in symptoms of distress, than females without these difficulties. The tendencies were similar but nonsignificant among males, and for symptoms of depression pre-pandemic. In conclusion, during the lockdown, young females reported a higher frequency of symptoms of distress than males, and individuals with symptoms of anxiety pre-pandemic, mental health disorders, and in families with economic hardship were more likely to perceive the lockdown to be associated with an increase in symptoms of distress, than individuals without these difficulties.

From bureaucratic administration to effective intervention: Comparing early governmental responses to the COVID-19 virus across East Asian and western health systems.

The outbreak of COVID-19 in early 2020 created dangerous public health conditions which pressured governments and health systems to respond in a rapid and effective manner. However, this type of rapid response required many governments to bypass standing; bureaucratic structures of health sector administration and political governance to quickly take; essential measures against a rapidly evolving public health threat. Each government's particular; configuration of governmental and health system decision-making created specific structural and functional challenges to these necessary centrally developed and coordinated strategies. Most East Asian governments (except Japan) succeeded relatively quickly in centralizing essential disease control and treatment initiatives in a timely manner. In contrast, a number of European countries, especially those with predominantly tax-based financing and politically managed health delivery systems, had greater difficulty in escaping bureaucratic governance and management constraints. Drawing on data about these governments' early stage COVID-19 control experiences, this article suggests that structural changes will be necessary if low-performing governments are to better respond to a pandemic. This paper also summarizes other relatively successful strategies. By adopting such strategies, nations can help overcome structural bureaucratic and administrative obstacles in responding to further waves of COVID-19 or similar future pandemic events.

Wetland emission and atmospheric sink changes explain methane growth in 2020.

Atmospheric methane growth reached an exceptionally high rate of 15.1 ± 0.4 parts per billion per year in 2020 despite a probable decrease in anthropogenic methane emissions during COVID-19 lockdowns1. Here we quantify changes in methane sources and in its atmospheric sink in 2020 compared with 2019. We find that, globally, total anthropogenic emissions decreased by 1.2 ± 0.1 teragrams of methane per year (Tg CH4 yr-1), fire emissions decreased by 6.5 ± 0.1 Tg CH4 yr-1 and wetland emissions increased by 6.0 ± 2.3 Tg CH4 yr-1. Tropospheric OH concentration decreased by 1.6 ± 0.2 per cent relative to 2019, mainly as a result of lower anthropogenic nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions and associated lower free tropospheric ozone during pandemic lockdowns2. From atmospheric inversions, we also infer that global net emissions increased by 6.9 ± 2.1 Tg CH4 yr-1 in 2020 relative to 2019, and global methane removal from reaction with OH decreased by 7.5 ± 0.8 Tg CH4 yr-1. Therefore, we attribute the methane growth rate anomaly in 2020 relative to 2019 to lower OH sink (53 ± 10 per cent) and higher natural emissions (47 ± 16 per cent), mostly from wetlands. In line with previous findings3,4, our results imply that wetland methane emissions are sensitive to a warmer and wetter climate and could act as a positive feedback mechanism in the future. Our study also suggests that nitrogen oxide emission trends need to be taken into account when implementing the global anthropogenic methane emissions reduction pledge5.

Lifting Universal Masking in Schools - Covid-19 Incidence among Students and Staff.

BACKGROUND: In February 2022, Massachusetts rescinded a statewide universal masking policy in public schools, and many Massachusetts school districts lifted masking requirements during the subsequent weeks. In the greater Boston area, only two school districts - the Boston and neighboring Chelsea districts - sustained masking requirements through June 2022. The staggered lifting of masking requirements provided an opportunity to examine the effect of universal masking policies on the incidence of coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) in schools. METHODS: We used a difference-in-differences analysis for staggered policy implementation to compare the incidence of Covid-19 among students and staff in school districts in the greater Boston area that lifted masking requirements with the incidence in districts that sustained masking requirements during the 2021-2022 school year. Characteristics of the school districts were also compared. RESULTS: Before the statewide masking policy was rescinded, trends in the incidence of Covid-19 were similar across school districts. During the 15 weeks after the statewide masking policy was rescinded, the lifting of masking requirements was associated with an additional 44.9 cases per 1000 students and staff (95% confidence interval, 32.6 to 57.1), which corresponded to an estimated 11,901 cases and to 29.4% of the cases in all districts during that time. Districts that chose to sustain masking requirements longer tended to have school buildings that were older and in worse condition and to have more students per classroom than districts that chose to lift masking requirements earlier. In addition, these districts had higher percentages of low-income students, students with disabilities, and students who were English-language learners, as well as higher percentages of Black and Latinx students and staff. Our results support universal masking as an important strategy for reducing Covid-19 incidence in schools and loss of in-person school days. As such, we believe that universal masking may be especially useful for mitigating effects of structural racism in schools, including potential deepening of educational inequities. CONCLUSIONS: Among school districts in the greater Boston area, the lifting of masking requirements was associated with an additional 44.9 Covid-19 cases per 1000 students and staff during the 15 weeks after the statewide masking policy was rescinded.

Use of Acute Mental Health Care in U.S. Children's Hospitals Before and After Statewide COVID-19 School Closure Orders.

Objective: This study aimed to examine changes in child emergency department (ED) discharges and hospitalizations for primary general medical (GM) and primary psychiatric disorders; prevalence of psychiatric disorders among acute care encounters; and change in acute mental health (MH) care encounters by disorder type and, within these categories, by child sociodemographic characteristics before and after statewide COVID-19­related school closure orders. Methods: This retrospective, cross-sectional cohort study used the Pediatric Health Information System database to assess percent changes in ED discharges and hospitalizations (N=2,658,474 total encounters) among children ages 3­17 years in 44 U.S. children's hospitals in 2020 compared with 2019, by using matched data for 36- and 12-calendar-week intervals. Results: Decline in MH ED discharges accounted for about half of the decline in ED discharges and hospitalizations for primary GM disorders (−24.8% vs. −49.1%), and MH hospitalizations declined 3.4 times less (−8.0% vs. −26.8%) in 2020. Suicide attempt or self-injury and depressive disorders accounted for >50% of acute MH care encounters before and after the statewide school closures. The increase in both ED discharges and hospitalizations for suicide attempt or self-injury was 5.1 percentage points (p<0.001). By fall 2020, MH hospitalizations for suicide attempt or self-injury rose by 41.7%, with a 43.8% and 49.2% rise among adolescents and girls, respectively. Conclusions: Suicide or self-injury and depressive disorders drove acute MH care encounters in 44 U.S. children's hospitals after COVID-19­related school closures. Research is needed to identify continuing risk indicators (e.g., sociodemographic characteristics, psychiatric disorder types, and social determinants of health) of acute child MH care.

Monitoring the impact of COVID-19 in France on cancer care: a differentiated impact.

The COVID-19 pandemic has had a substantial and lasting impact on care provision, particularly in the field of cancer care. National steering has helped monitor the health situation and adapt the provision and organisation of care. Based on data from the French administrative healthcare database (SNDS) on the entire French population (67 million people), screening, diagnostic and therapeutic activity was monitored and compared 2019 on a monthly basis. A noteworthy decline in all activities (with the exception of chemotherapy) was observed during the first lockdown in France. Over the months that followed, this activity returned to normal but did not make up for the shortfall from the first lockdown. Finally, during the lockdown in late 2020, cancer care activity was conserved. In brief, in 2020, the number of mammograms decreased by 10% (- 492,500 procedures), digestive endoscopies by 19% (- 648,500), and cancer-related excision by 6% (- 23,000 surgical procedures). Hospital radiotherapy activity was down 3.8% (- 4400 patients) and that in private practice was down 1.4% (- 1600 patients). Chemotherapy activity increased by 2.2% (7200 patients), however. To summarize, COVID-19 had a very substantial impact during the first lockdown. Safeguarding cancer care activity helped limit this impact over the months that followed, but the situation remains uncertain. Further studies on the medium- and long-term impact on individuals (survival, recurrence, after-effects) will be conducted.

Three-Month Follow-up Study of Mental Health Outcomes After a National COVID-19 Lockdown: Comparing Patients With Mood or Anxiety Disorders Living in an Area With a Higher Versus Lower Infection Incidence.

Objective: The COVID-19 pandemic and the related containment measures can represent a traumatic experience, particularly for populations living in high incidence areas and individuals with mental disorders. The aim of this study was to prospectively examine posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD), anxiety, and depressive symptoms since the end of the first COVID-19 pandemic wave and Italy's national lockdown in subjects with mood or anxiety disorders living in 2 regions with increasing pandemic incidence.Methods: 102 subjects with a DSM-5 anxiety or mood disorder were enrolled from June to July 2020 and assessed at baseline (T0) and after 3 months (T1) with the Impact of Event Scale-Revised, Patient Health Questionnaire-9, Generalized Anxiety Disorder 7-Item, and Work and Social Adjustment Scale. At T1, subjects were also assessed by means of the Trauma and Loss Spectrum Self-Report for PTSD.Results: At T0, subjects from the high COVID-19 incidence area showed higher levels of traumatic symptoms than those from the low COVID-19 incidence area (P < .001), with a decrease at T1 with respect to T0 (P = .001). Full or partial DSM-5 PTSD related to the COVID-19 pandemic emerged in 23 subjects (53.5%) from the high COVID-19 incidence area and in 9 (18.0%) from the low COVID-19 incidence area (P < .001).Conclusions: Subjects with mood or anxiety disorders presented relevant rates of PTSD, depressive, and anxiety symptoms in the aftermath of the lockdown, and in most cases these persisted after 3 months. The level of exposure to the pandemic emerged as a major risk factor for PTSD development. Further long-term studies are needed to follow up the course of traumatic burden.

Global fine-scale changes in ambient NO2 during COVID-19 lockdowns.

Nitrogen dioxide (NO2) is an important contributor to air pollution and can adversely affect human health1-9. A decrease in NO2 concentrations has been reported as a result of lockdown measures to reduce the spread of COVID-1910-20. Questions remain, however, regarding the relationship of satellite-derived atmospheric column NO2 data with health-relevant ambient ground-level concentrations, and the representativeness of limited ground-based monitoring data for global assessment. Here we derive spatially resolved, global ground-level NO2 concentrations from NO2 column densities observed by the TROPOMI satellite instrument at sufficiently fine resolution (approximately one kilometre) to allow assessment of individual cities during COVID-19 lockdowns in 2020 compared to 2019. We apply these estimates to quantify NO2 changes in more than 200 cities, including 65 cities without available ground monitoring, largely in lower-income regions. Mean country-level population-weighted NO2 concentrations are 29% ± 3% lower in countries with strict lockdown conditions than in those without. Relative to long-term trends, NO2 decreases during COVID-19 lockdowns exceed recent Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI)-derived year-to-year decreases from emission controls, comparable to 15 ± 4 years of reductions globally. Our case studies indicate that the sensitivity of NO2 to lockdowns varies by country and emissions sector, demonstrating the critical need for spatially resolved observational information provided by these satellite-derived surface concentration estimates.

What matters: non-pharmaceutical interventions for COVID-19 in Europe.

OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this study is to describe the situation of COVID-19 in European countries and to identify important factors related to prevention and control. METHODS: We obtained data from World Health Statistics 2020 and the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME). We calculated the Rt values of 51 countries in Europe under different prevention and control measures. We used lasso regression to screen factors associated with morbidity and mortality. For the selected variables, we used quantile regression to analyse the relevant influencing factors in countries with different levels of morbidity or mortality. RESULTS: The government has a great influence on the change in Rt value through prevention and control measures. The most important factors for personal and group prevention and control are the mobility index, testing, the closure of educational facilities, restrictions on large-scale gatherings, and commercial restrictions. The number of ICU beds and doctors in medical resources are also key factors. Basic sanitation facilities, such as the proportion of safe drinking water, also have an impact on the COVID-19 epidemic. CONCLUSIONS: We described the current status of COVID-19 in European countries. Our findings demonstrated key factors in individual and group prevention measures.

Assessing the impact of human mobility to predict regional excess death in Ecuador.

COVID-19 outbreaks have had high mortality in low- and middle-income countries such as Ecuador. Human mobility is an important factor influencing the spread of diseases possibly leading to a high burden of disease at the country level. Drastic control measures, such as complete lockdown, are effective epidemic controls, yet in practice one hopes that a partial shutdown would suffice. It is an open problem to determine how much mobility can be allowed while controlling an outbreak. In this paper, we use statistical models to relate human mobility to the excess death in Ecuador while controlling for demographic factors. The mobility index provided by GRANDATA, based on mobile phone users, represents the change of number of out-of-home events with respect to a benchmark date (March 2nd, 2020). The study confirms the global trend that more men are dying than expected compared to women, and that people under 30 show less deaths than expected, particularly individuals younger than 20 with a death rate reduction between 22 and 27%. The weekly median mobility time series shows a sharp decrease in human mobility immediately after a national lockdown was declared on March 17, 2020 and a progressive increase towards the pre-lockdown level within two months. Relating median mobility to excess deaths shows a lag in its effect: first, a decrease in mobility in the previous two to three weeks decreases excess death and, more novel, we found an increase of mobility variability four weeks prior increases the number of excess deaths.

Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) and vulnerability to COVID-19: The case of adult patients with hypertension or diabetes mellitus in Gamo, Gofa, and South Omo zones in Southern Ethiopia.

BACKGROUND: A growing body of evidence demonstrating that individuals with Non-Communicable Disease (NCD) are more likely to have severe forms of COVID-19 and subsequent mortality. Hence, our study aimed to assess the knowledge of vulnerability and preventive practices towards COVID-19 among patients with hypertension or diabetes in Southern Ethiopia. OBJECTIVE: To assess the knowledge and preventive practices towards COVID-19 among patients with hypertension or diabetes mellitus in three zones of Southern Ethiopia, 2020. METHODS: A community-based cross-sectional study design was used with a multi-stage random sampling technique to select 682 patients with hypertension or diabetes mellitus from 10th -17th July 2020 at the three zones of Southern Ethiopia. Logistic regression analysis with a 95% confidence interval was fitted to identify independent predictors of knowledge and preventive practices towards COVID-19. The adjusted odds ratio (AOR) was used to determine the magnitude of the association between the outcome and independent variables. P-value <0.05 is considered statistically significant. RESULTS: The Multi-dimensional knowledge (MDK) analysis of COVID-19 revealed that 63% of study subjects had good knowledge about COVID-19. The overall preventive practice towards COVID -19 was 26.4%. Monthly income (AOR = 1.42; 95% CI: 1.04, 1.94) significantly predicted knowledge towards COVID-19. Ninety-five percent of the study subjects knew that the COVID-19 virus spreads via respiratory droplets of infected individuals. One hundred and ten (16.2%) of study subjects correctly responded to the questions that state whether people with the COVID-19 virus who do not have a fever can infect the other. Knowledge about COVID-19 (AOR = 1.47; 95% CI: 1.03, 2.1) became the independent predictor of preventive practice. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, the knowledge of the respondents towards the COVID-19 pandemic was good. But the preventive practice was very low. There was a significant gap between knowledge and preventive practices towards the COVID-19 pandemic among the study subjects. Monthly income was significantly associated with knowledge of COVID-19. Knowledge of COVID-19 was found to be an independent predictor of preventive practice towards COVID-19. Community mobilization and improving COVID-19- related knowledge and practice are urgently recommended for those patients with hypertension or diabetes mellitus.

The impact of re-opening the international border on COVID-19 hospitalisations in Australia: a modelling study.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the numbers of COVID-19-related hospitalisations in Australia after re-opening the international border. DESIGN: Population-level deterministic compartmental epidemic modelling of eight scenarios applying various assumptions regarding SARS-CoV-2 transmissibility (baseline R0 = 3.5 or 7.0), vaccine rollout speed (slow or fast), and scale of border re-opening (mean of 2500 or 13 000 overseas arrivals per day). SETTING: Simulation population size, age structure, and age-based contact rates based on recent estimates for the Australian population. We assumed that 80% vaccination coverage of people aged 16 years or more was reached in mid-October 2021 (fast rollout) or early January 2022 (slow rollout). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Numbers of people admitted to hospital with COVID-19, December 2021 - December 2022. RESULTS: In scenarios assuming a highly transmissible SARS-CoV-2 variant (R0  = 7.0), opening the international border on either scale was followed by surges in both infections and hospitalisations that would require public health measures beyond mask wearing and social distancing to avoid overwhelming the health system. Reducing the number of hospitalisations to manageable levels required several cycles of additional social and mobility restrictions. CONCLUSIONS: If highly transmissible SARS-CoV-2 variants are circulating locally or overseas, large and disruptive COVID-19 outbreaks will still be possible in Australia after 80% of people aged 16 years or more have been vaccinated. Continuing public health measures to restrict the spread of disease are likely to be necessary throughout 2022.

An analysis of antibody responses and clinical sequalae of the Sinopharm HB02 COVID19 vaccine in dialysis patients in the United Arab Emirates.

AIM: To establish the responses to the Sinopharm HB02 COVID-19 vaccination in the dialysis population, which are not well established. We examined the humoral responses to the Sinopharm COVID vaccine in haemodialysis patients. METHODS: Standard vaccinations (two doses at interval of ~21 days) were given to all consenting haemodialysis patients on dialysis (n = 1296). We measured the antibody responses at 14-21 days after the second vaccine to define the development of anti-spike antibodies >15 AU/ml after vaccination and observed the clinical effects of vaccination. RESULTS: Vaccination was very well tolerated with few side-effects. In those who consented to antibody measurements, (n = 446) baseline sampling showed 77 had positive antibodies, yet received full vaccination without any apparent adverse events. Positive anti-spike antibodies developed in 50% of the 270 baseline negative patients who had full sampling, compared with 78.1% in the general population. COVID infection continues to occur in both vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals, but in the whole group vaccination appears to have been associated with a reduction in the case fatality rate. CONCLUSION: The humoral immune responses to standard HB02 vaccination schedules are attenuated in a haemodialysis cohort, but likely the vaccine saves lives. We suggest that an enhanced HB02 vaccination course or antibody checking may be prudent to protect this vulnerable group of patients. We suggest a booster dose of this vaccine at 3 months should be given to all dialysis patients, on the grounds that it is well tolerated even in those with good antibody levels and there may be a survival advantage.