Survival of hospitalised COVID-19 patients in Hawassa, Ethiopia: a cohort study.

The COVID-19 pandemic, caused by SARS-CoV-2, led to 622,119,701 reported cases and 6,546,118 deaths. Most studies on COVID-19 patients in hospitals are from high-income countries, lacking data for developing countries such as Ethiopia.This study assesses clinical features, demographics, and risk factors for in-hospital mortality in Hawassa, Ethiopia. The research cohort comprises 804 cases exhibiting clinical diagnoses and/or radiological findings and indicative of symptoms consistent with COVID-19 at Hawassa University Comprehensive Specialized Hospital from September 24, 2020, to November 26, 2021. In-hospital mortality rate was predicted using Cox regression. The median age was 45 years, with males making up 64.1% of the population. 173 (21.5%) fatalities occurred, with 125 (72.3%) among males. Male patients had higher mortality rates than females. Severe and critical cases were 24% and 21%. 49.1% had at least one comorbidity, with 12.6% having multiple. Common comorbidities were diabetes (15.9%) and hypertension (15.2%). The Cox regression in Ethiopian COVID-19 patients found that factors like gender, advanced age group, disease severity, symptoms upon admission, shortness of breath, sore throat, body weakness, hypertension, diabetes, multiple comorbidities, and prior health facility visits increased the risk of COVID-19 death, similar to high-income nations. However, in Ethiopia, COVID-19 patients were young and economically active. Patients with at least one symptom had reduced death risk. As a conclusion, COVID-19 in Ethiopia mainly affected the younger demographic, particularly economically active individuals. Early detection can reduce the risk of mortality. Prompt medical attention is essential, especially for individuals with comorbidities. Further research needed on diabetes and hypertension management to reduce mortality risk. Risk factors identified at admission play a crucial role in guiding clinical decisions for intensive monitoring and treatment. Broader risk indicators help prioritize patients for allocation of hospital resources, especially in regions with limited medical facilities. Government's focus on timely testing and strict adherence to regulations crucial for reducing economic impact.

Population Genomics of Plasmodium malariae from Four African Countries.

Plasmodium malariae is geographically widespread but neglected and may become more prevalent as P. falciparum declines. We completed the largest genomic study of African P. malariae to-date by performing hybrid capture and sequencing of 77 isolates from Cameroon (n=7), the Democratic Republic of the Congo (n=16), Nigeria (n=4), and Tanzania (n=50) collected between 2015 and 2021. There is no evidence of geographic population structure. Nucleotide diversity was significantly lower than in co-localized P. falciparum isolates, while linkage disequilibrium was significantly higher. Genome-wide selection scans identified no erythrocyte invasion ligands or antimalarial resistance orthologs as top hits; however, targeted analyses of these loci revealed evidence of selective sweeps around four erythrocyte invasion ligands and six antimalarial resistance orthologs. Demographic inference modeling suggests that African P. malariae is recovering from a bottleneck. Altogether, these results suggest that P. malariae is genomically atypical among human Plasmodium spp. and panmictic in Africa.

Evidence of artemisinin partial resistance in northwestern Tanzania: clinical and molecular markers of resistance.

BACKGROUND: In 2021, nationwide malaria molecular surveillance revealed a high prevalence of a validated artemisinin resistance marker, the kelch13 (k13) Arg561His mutation, in the Kagera region of northwestern Tanzania. We aimed to investigate the efficacy of artemether-lumefantrine and artesunate-amodiaquine and to confirm the presence of artemisinin partial resistance (ART-R) in the Karagwe district of this region. METHODS: This single-arm, therapeutic efficacy study was carried out at the Bukangara dispensary in the Karagwe district of the Kagera region in northwestern Tanzania. Eligible participants were aged between 6 months and 120 months, had confirmed Plasmodium falciparum asexual parasitaemia, and met other inclusion criteria according to WHO's standard protocol. Participants were enrolled, treated sequentially with either artemether-lumefantrine or artesunate-amodiaquine, and assessed clinically and parasitologically for 28 days as per WHO protocol. Parasitaemia was measured every 8 h until day 3, on day 7, and then during weekly follow-up visits until day 28. Mutations in the k13 gene and extended haplotypes with the mutations were analysed, and comparisons were made with previous samples collected in the same region of Kagera and in Rwanda and southeast Asia. The primary endpoint was PCR-corrected cure rate. FINDINGS: Between April 29 and Sept 1, 2022, 343 patients were screened, of whom 176 were enrolled: 88 in each treatment group. The PCR-corrected cure rate was 98% (95% CI 91-100) in the artemether-lumefantrine group and 100% (96-100) in the artesunate-amodiaquine group. Persistent parasitaemia on day 3 occurred in 11 (13%) of 88 patients in the artemether-lumefantrine group and 17 (19%) of 88 patients in the artesunate-amodiaquine group. Arg561His mutations on day 0 and parasitaemia on day 3 were reported in eight (9%) of 87 patients in the artemether-lumefantrine group and ten (12%) of 86 patients in the artesunate-amodiaquine group. The median parasite clearance half-life in patients harbouring parasites with Arg561His mutation was 6·1 h in the artemether-lumefantrine group and 6·0 h in the artesunate-amodiaquine group. Parasites with the Arg561His mutation were not similar to those from southeast Asia and Rwanda but had similar haplotypes to parasites reported in the same Tanzanian region of Kagera in 2021. INTERPRETATION: This study confirms the presence of ART-R in Tanzania, although artemether-lumefantrine and artesunate-amodiaquine showed high efficacy. A context-specific response strategy and vigilance to detect the reduced efficacy of current antimalarial treatments and ART-R in other parts of the country are urgently needed. FUNDING: The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and the US National Institutes of Health.

National genomic profiling of Plasmodium falciparum antimalarial resistance in Zambian children participating in the 2018 Malaria Indicator Survey.

The emergence of antimalarial drug resistance is a major threat to malaria control and elimination. Using whole genome sequencing of 282 P. falciparum samples collected during the 2018 Zambia National Malaria Indicator Survey, we determined the prevalence and spatial distribution of known and candidate antimalarial drug resistance mutations. High levels of genotypic resistance were found across Zambia to pyrimethamine, with over 94% (n=266) of samples having the Pfdhfr triple mutant (N51I, C59R, and S108N), and sulfadoxine, with over 84% (n=238) having the Pfdhps double mutant (A437G and K540E). In northern Zambia, 5.3% (n=15) of samples also harbored the Pfdhps A581G mutation. Although 29 mutations were identified in Pfkelch13, these mutations were present at low frequency (<2.5%), and only three were WHO-validated artemisinin partial resistance mutations: P441L (n=1, 0.35%), V568M (n=2, 0.7%) and R622T (n=1, 0.35%). Notably, 91 (32%) of samples carried the E431K mutation in the Pfatpase6 gene, which is associated with artemisinin resistance. No specimens carried any known mutations associated with chloroquine resistance in the Pfcrt gene (codons 72-76). P. falciparum strains circulating in Zambia were highly resistant to sulfadoxine and pyrimethamine but remained susceptible to chloroquine and artemisinin. Despite this encouraging finding, early genetic signs of developing artemisinin resistance highlight the urgent need for continued vigilance and expanded routine genomic surveillance to monitor these changes.

Prevalence of mutations associated with artemisinin partial resistance and sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine resistance in 13 regions in Tanzania in 2021: a cross-sectional survey.

BACKGROUND: The emergence of the artemisinin partial resistance (ART-R) mutation in the Plasmodium falciparum kelch13 gene (k13), Arg561His, in Rwanda and the regional presence of polymorphisms affecting sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine have raised concern in neighbouring Tanzania. The goal of this study was to assess the status of antimalarial resistance in Tanzania, with a focus on the border with Rwanda, to understand the distribution of the Arg561His mutation, partner drug resistance, and resistance to chemoprevention drugs. METHODS: In this cross-sectional survey, capillary dried blood spots were collected from malaria positive asymptomatic individuals in the community and symptomatic individuals in health facilities aged 6 months and older, in 13 regions of mainland Tanzania from Jan 31 to June 26, 2021. Exclusion criteria included residence of the areas other than the target sites, presenting to the health facility for care and treatment of conditions other than malaria, and not providing informed consent. Samples were assessed for antimalarial resistance polymorphisms and genetic relatedness using molecular inversion probes targeting P falciparum and short-read whole-genome sequencing. The primary outcome was the prevalence of molecular markers of antimalarial resistance at the region level, as well as at the district level in Kagera, a region in the northwest of the country at the border with Rwanda. FINDINGS: 6855 (88·1%) of 7782 capillary dried blood spot samples collected were successfully genotyped. The overall prevalence of k13 Arg561His in Kagera was 7·7% (90% CI 6·0-9·4; 50 of 649), with the highest prevalence in the districts near the Rwandan border (22·8% [31 of 136] in Karagwe, 14·4% [17 of 118]) in Kyerwa, and 1·4% [two of 144] in Ngara). k13 Arg561His was uncommon in the other regions. Haplotype analysis suggested that some of these parasites are related to isolates collected in Rwanda in 2015, supporting regional spread of Arg561His. However, a novel k13 Arg561His haplotype was observed, potentially indicating a second origin in the region. Other validated k13 resistance polymorphisms (one Arg622Ile and two Ala675Val isolates) were also identified. A region of prevalent dihydrofolate reductase Ile164Leu mutation, associated with sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine resistance, was also identified in Kagera (15·2% [12·6-17·8%]; 80 of 526). The mutant crt Lys76Thr mutation, associated with chloroquine and amodiaquine resistance, was uncommon, occurring only in 75 of 2861 genotyped isolates, whereases the wild-type mdr1 Asn86Tyr allele, associated with reduced sensitivity to lumefantrine, was found in 99·7% (3819 of 3830) of samples countrywide. INTERPRETATION: These findings show that the k13 Arg561His mutation is common in northwest Tanzania and that multiple emergences of ART-R, similar as to what was seen in southeast Asia, have occurred. Mutations associated with high levels of sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine resistance are common. These results raise concerns about the long-term efficacy of artemisinin and chemoprevention antimalarials in the region. Understanding how multiple emergences interact with drivers of regional spread is essential for combating ART-R in Africa. FUNDING: This study was funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and the National Institutes of Health.

High-Throughput Genotyping of Plasmodium vivax in the Peruvian Amazon via Molecular Inversion Probes.

Plasmodium vivax transmission occurs throughout the tropics and is an emerging threat in areas of Plasmodium falciparum decline, causing relapse infections that complicate treatment and control. Targeted sequencing for P. falciparum has been widely deployed to detect population structure and the geographic spread of antimalarial and diagnostic resistance. However, there are fewer such tools for P. vivax . Leveraging global variation data, we designed four molecular inversion probe (MIP) genotyping panels targeting geographically differentiating SNPs, neutral SNPs, putative antimalarial resistance genes, and vaccine candidate genes. We deployed these MIP panels on 866 infections from the Peruvian Amazon and identified transmission networks with clonality (IBD>0.99), copy number variation in Pvdbp and multiple Pvrbps , fixation of putative antimalarial resistance, and balancing selection in 13 vaccine candidate genes. Our MIP panels are the broadest genotyping panel currently available and are poised for successful deployment in other regions of P. vivax transmission.

Ex vivo susceptibility to antimalarial drugs and polymorphisms in drug resistance genes of African Plasmodium falciparum, 2016-2023: a genotype-phenotype association study.

Background: Given the altered responses to both artemisinins and lumefantrine in Eastern Africa, monitoring antimalarial drug resistance in all African countries is paramount. Methods: We measured the susceptibility to six antimalarials using ex vivo growth inhibition assays (IC50) for a total of 805 Plasmodium falciparum isolates obtained from travelers returning to France (2016-2023), mainly from West and Central Africa. Isolates were sequenced using molecular inversion probes (MIPs) targeting fourteen drug resistance genes across the parasite genome. Findings: Ex vivo susceptibility to several drugs has significantly decreased in 2019-2023 versus 2016-2018 parasite samples: lumefantrine (median IC50: 23·0 nM [IQR: 14·4-35·1] in 2019-2023 versus 13·9 nM [8·42-21·7] in 2016-2018, p<0·0001), monodesethylamodiaquine (35·4 [21·2-51·1] versus 20·3 nM [15·4-33·1], p<0·0001), and marginally piperaquine (20·5 [16·5-26·2] versus 18.0 [14·2-22·4] nM, p<0·0001). Only four isolates carried a validated pfkelch13 mutation. Multiple mutations in pfcrt and one in pfmdr1 (N86Y) were significantly associated with altered susceptibility to multiple drugs. The susceptibility to lumefantrine was altered by pfcrt and pfmdr1 mutations in an additive manner, with the wild-type haplotype (pfcrt K76-pfmdr1 N86) exhibiting the least susceptibility. Interpretation: Our study on P. falciparum isolates from West and Central Africa indicates a low prevalence of molecular markers of artemisinin resistance but a significant decrease in susceptibility to the partner drugs that have been the most widely used since a decade -lumefantrine and amodiaquine. These phenotypic changes likely mark parasite adaptation to sustained drug pressure and call for intensifying the monitoring of antimalarial drug resistance in Africa. Funding: This work was supported by the French Ministry of Health (grant to the French National Malaria Reference Center) and by the Agence Nationale de la Recherche (ANR-17-CE15-0013-03 to JC). JAB was supported by NIH R01AI139520. JR postdoctoral fellowship was funded by Institut de Recherche pour le Développement.

Ex vivo susceptibility to antimalarial drugs and polymorphisms in drug resistance genes of African Plasmodium falciparum, 2016-2023: a genotype-phenotype association study.

Background: Given the altered responses to both artemisinins and lumefantrine in Eastern Africa, monitoring antimalarial drug resistance in all African countries is paramount. Methods: We measured the susceptibility to six antimalarials using ex vivo growth inhibition assays (IC 50 ) for a total of 805 Plasmodium falciparum isolates obtained from travelers returning to France (2016-2023), mainly from West and Central Africa. Isolates were sequenced using molecular inversion probes (MIPs) targeting fourteen drug resistance genes across the parasite genome. Findings: Ex vivo susceptibility to several drugs has significantly decreased in 2019-2023 versus 2016-2018 parasite samples: lumefantrine (median IC 50 : 23·0 nM [IQR: 14·4-35·1] in 2019-2023 versus 13·9 nM [8·42-21·7] in 2016-2018, p<0·0001), monodesethylamodiaquine (35·4 [21·2-51·1] versus 20·3 nM [15·4-33·1], p<0·0001), and marginally piperaquine (20·5 [16·5-26·2] versus 18.0 [14·2-22·4] nM, p<0·0001). Only four isolates carried a validated pfkelch13 mutation. Multiple mutations in pfcrt and one in pfmdr1 (N86Y) were significantly associated with altered susceptibility to multiple drugs. The susceptibility to lumefantrine was altered by pfcrt and pfmdr1 mutations in an additive manner, with the wild-type haplotype ( pfcrt K76- pfmdr1 N86) exhibiting the least susceptibility. Interpretation: Our study on P. falciparum isolates from West and Central Africa indicates a low prevalence of molecular markers of artemisinin resistance but a significant decrease in susceptibility to the partner drugs that have been the most widely used since a decade -lumefantrine and amodiaquine. These phenotypic changes likely mark parasite adaptation to sustained drug pressure and call for intensifying the monitoring of antimalarial drug resistance in Africa.

Temporal genomic analysis of Plasmodium falciparum reveals increased prevalence of mutations associated with delayed clearance following treatment with artemisinin-lumefantrine in Choma District, Southern Province, Zambia.

The emergence of antimalarial drug resistance is an impediment to malaria control and elimination in Africa. Analysis of temporal trends in molecular markers of resistance is critical to inform policy makers and guide malaria treatment guidelines. In a low and seasonal transmission region of southern Zambia, we successfully genotyped 85.5% (389/455) of Plasmodium falciparum samples collected between 2013-2018 from 8 spatially clustered health centres using molecular inversion probes (MIPs) targeting key drug resistance genes. Aside from one sample carrying K13 R622I, none of the isolates carried other World Health Organization-validated or candidate artemisinin partial resistance (ART-R) mutations in K13. However, 13% (CI, 9.6-17.2) of isolates had the AP2MU S160N mutation, which has been associated with delayed clearance following artemisinin combination therapy in Africa. This mutation increased in prevalence between 2015-2018 and bears a genomic signature of selection. During this time period, there was an increase in the MDR1 NFD haplotype that is associated with reduced susceptibility to lumefantrine. Sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine polymorphisms were near fixation. While validated ART-R mutations are rare, a mutation associated with slow parasite clearance in Africa appears to be under selection in southern Zambia.

Antimicrobial resistance trends in clinical Escherichia coli and Klebsiella pneumoniae in Ethiopia.

Background: Clinicians rely on local antimicrobial resistance pattern data to guide empiric treatment for seriously ill patients when culture and antimicrobial susceptibility testing results are not immediately available. Objective: This study aimed to analyse 5-year trends in antimicrobial resistance profiles of Escherichia coli and Klebsiella pneumoniae isolates. Methods: Bacteriology reports from 2017 to 2021 at the Ethiopian Public Health Institute were analysed retrospectively. Isolates were identified using either the VITEK 2 Compact system, the BD Phoenix M50 instrument, or conventional biochemical tests. Antimicrobial susceptibility testing was conducted using either the Kirby-Bauer disk diffusion method or the VITEK 2 Compact system and BD Phoenix M50 systems available at the time of testing. The Cochran Armitage trend test was employed to test the significance of antimicrobial resistance trends over time. P-values less than 0.05 were considered statistically significant. Results: Of the 5382 bacteriology reports examined, 458 (9%) were on E. coli and 266 (5%) were on K. pneumoniae. Both K. pneumoniae (88%) and E. coli (65%) demonstrated high resistance to extended-spectrum cephalosporins. However, both K. pneumoniae (14%) and E. coli (5%) showed lower rates of resistance to carbapenems compared to other antimicrobials. In K. pneumoniae, resistance to carbapenems (from 0% to 38%; p < 0.001) and ciprofloxacin (from 41% to 90%; p < 0.001) increased significantly between 2017 and 2021. Conclusion: Both organisms showed very high resistance to broad-spectrum antibiotics. Additionally, K. pneumoniae demonstrated a statistically significant rise in ciprofloxacin and carbapenem resistance. What this study adds: This study emphasises the significance of regular reporting of local antimicrobial resistance patterns as this information can guide appropriate empiric therapy and efforts to address antimicrobial resistance issues.

Genomics reveals heterogeneous Plasmodium falciparum transmission and selection signals in Zambia.

BACKGROUND: Genomic surveillance is crucial for monitoring malaria transmission and understanding parasite adaptation to interventions. Zambia lacks prior nationwide efforts in malaria genomic surveillance among African countries. METHODS: We conducted genomic surveillance of Plasmodium falciparum parasites from the 2018 Malaria Indicator Survey in Zambia, a nationally representative household survey of children under five years of age. We whole-genome sequenced and analyzed 241 P. falciparum genomes from regions with varying levels of malaria transmission across Zambia and estimated genetic metrics that are informative about transmission intensity, genetic relatedness between parasites, and selection. RESULTS: We provide genomic evidence of widespread within-host polygenomic infections, regardless of epidemiological characteristics, underscoring the extensive and ongoing endemic malaria transmission in Zambia. Our analysis reveals country-level clustering of parasites from Zambia and neighboring regions, with distinct separation in West Africa. Within Zambia, identity by descent (IBD) relatedness analysis uncovers local spatial clustering and rare cases of long-distance sharing of closely related parasite pairs. Genomic regions with large shared IBD segments and strong positive selection signatures implicate genes involved in sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine and artemisinin combination therapies drug resistance, but no signature related to chloroquine resistance. Furthermore, differences in selection signatures, including drug resistance loci, are observed between eastern and western Zambian parasite populations, suggesting variable transmission intensity and ongoing drug pressure. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings enhance our understanding of nationwide P. falciparum transmission in Zambia, establishing a baseline for analyzing parasite genetic metrics as they vary over time and space. These insights highlight the urgency of strengthening malaria control programs and surveillance of antimalarial drug resistance.

Malaria is caused by a parasite that is spread to humans via mosquito bites. It is a leading cause of death in children under five years old in sub-Saharan Africa. Analysis of the malaria parasite's complete set of DNA (its genome) can help us to understand transmission of the disease and how this changes in response to different strategies to control the disease. We analyzed the genomes of malaria parasites from children across Zambia. Our study revealed that 77% of children harbored multiple parasite strains, which suggests that local transmission (transmission between people within the same local area) is high. Genetic evidence for long-distance transmission was rarer. Furthermore, our findings suggest parasites are evolving in response to antimalarial drugs. Our study enhances our understanding of malaria dynamics in Zambia and may help to inform strategies for improved surveillance and control.

Microsatellites reveal high polymorphism and high potential for use in anti-malarial efficacy studies in areas with different transmission intensities in mainland Tanzania.

BACKGROUND: Tanzania is currently implementing therapeutic efficacy studies (TES) in areas of varying malaria transmission intensities as per the World Health Organization (WHO) recommendations. In TES, distinguishing reinfection from recrudescence is critical for the determination of anti-malarial efficacy. Recently, the WHO recommended genotyping polymorphic coding genes, merozoite surface proteins 1 and 2 (msp1 and msp2), and replacing the glutamate-rich protein (glurp) gene with one of the highly polymorphic microsatellites in Plasmodium falciparum to adjust the efficacy of antimalarials in TES. This study assessed the polymorphisms of six neutral microsatellite markers and their potential use in TES, which is routinely performed in Tanzania. METHODS: Plasmodium falciparum samples were obtained from four TES sentinel sites, Kibaha (Pwani), Mkuzi (Tanga), Mlimba (Morogoro) and Ujiji (Kigoma), between April and September 2016. Parasite genomic DNA was extracted from dried blood spots on filter papers using commercial kits. Genotyping was done using six microsatellites (Poly-α, PfPK2, TA1, C3M69, C2M34 and M2490) by capillary method, and the data were analysed to determine the extent of their polymorphisms and genetic diversity at the four sites. RESULTS: Overall, 83 (88.3%) of the 94 samples were successfully genotyped (with positive results for ≥ 50.0% of the markers), and > 50.0% of the samples (range = 47.6-59.1%) were polyclonal, with a mean multiplicity of infection (MOI) ranging from 1.68 to 1.88 among the four sites. There was high genetic diversity but limited variability among the four sites based on mean allelic richness (RS = 7.48, range = 7.27-8.03, for an adjusted minimum sample size of 18 per site) and mean expected heterozygosity (He = 0.83, range = 0.80-0.85). Cluster analysis of haplotypes using STRUCTURE, principal component analysis, and pairwise genetic differentiation (FST) did not reveal population structure or clustering of parasites according to geographic origin. Of the six markers, Poly-α was the most polymorphic, followed by C2M34, TA1 and C3M69, while M2490 was the least polymorphic. CONCLUSION: Microsatellite genotyping revealed high polyclonality and genetic diversity but no significant population structure. Poly-α, C2M34, TA1 and C3M69 were the most polymorphic markers, and Poly-α alone or with any of the other three markers could be adopted for use in TES in Tanzania.

Genomics reveals heterogeneous Plasmodium falciparum transmission and population differentiation in Zambia and bordering countries.

Genomic surveillance plays a critical role in monitoring malaria transmission and understanding how the parasite adapts in response to interventions. We conducted genomic surveillance of malaria by sequencing 241 Plasmodium falciparum genomes from regions with varying levels of malaria transmission across Zambia. We found genomic evidence of high levels of within-host polygenomic infections, regardless of epidemiological characteristics, underscoring the extensive and ongoing endemic malaria transmission in the country. We identified country-level clustering of parasites from Zambia and neighboring countries, and distinct clustering of parasites from West Africa. Within Zambia, our identity by descent (IBD) relatedness analysis uncovered spatial clustering of closely related parasite pairs at the local level and rare cases of long-distance sharing. Genomic regions with large shared IBD segments and strong positive selection signatures identified genes involved in sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine and artemisinin combination therapies drug resistance, but no signature related to chloroquine resistance. Together, our findings enhance our understanding of P. falciparum transmission nationwide in Zambia and highlight the urgency of strengthening malaria control programs and surveillance of antimalarial drug resistance.

Evidence of artemisinin partial resistance in North-western Tanzania: clinical and drug resistance markers study.

Background: Artemisinin-based combination therapies (ACTs) are the recommended antimalarial drugs for the treatment of uncomplicated malaria. The recent emergence of artemisinin partial resistance (ART-R) in Rwanda, Uganda and Eritrea is of great concern. In Tanzania, a nationwide molecular malaria surveillance in 2021 showed a high prevalence of the Kelch13 (K13) 561H mutation in Plasmodium falciparum from the north-western region, close to the border with Rwanda and Uganda. This study was conducted in 2022 to evaluate the efficacy of artemether-lumefantrine (AL) and artesunate-amodiaquine (ASAQ) for the treatment of uncomplicated falciparum malaria and to confirm the presence of ART-R in Tanzania. Methods: This single-arm study evaluated the efficacy of AL and ASAQ in eligible children aged six months to 10 years at Bukangara Dispensary in Karagwe District, Kagera Region. Clinical and parasitological responses were monitored for 28 days according to standard WHO protocol. Mutations in K13 gene and extended haplotypes with these mutations were analysed using Sanger and whole genome sequencing data, respectively. Findings: 176 children (88 in each AL and ASAQ group) were enrolled and all achieved the defined outcomes. PCR-corrected adequate clinical and parasitological response (ACPR) was 98.3% (95% CI: 90.8-100) and 100.0% (95% CI: 95.8-100) for AL and ASAQ, respectively. Parasitaemia on day 3 was observed in 11/88 (12.5%) and 17/88 (19.3%) in the AL and ASAQ groups, respectively. The half-life of parasitaemia was significantly higher (>6.5 hrs) in patients with parasitaemia on day 3 and/or mutations in K13 gene at enrolment. Most patients with parasitaemia on day 3 (8/11 = 72.7% in the AL group and 10/17 = 58.8% in the ASAQ group) had 561H mutation at enrolment. The parasites with K13 mutations were not similar to those from south-east Asia and Rwanda, but had the same core haplotype of a new 561H haplotype reported in Kagera in 2021. Interpretation: These findings confirm the presence of ART-R in Tanzania. A context-specific strategy to respond to artemisinin partial resistance is urgently needed. Although both AL and ASAQ showed high efficacy, increased vigilance for reduced efficacy of these ACTs and detection of ART-R in other parts of the country is critical.

Emergence of Plasmodium falciparum strains with artemisinin partial resistance in East Africa and the Horn of Africa: is there a need to panic?

The emergence and spread of artemisinin partial resistance in East and Horn of Africa is alarming. However, artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) generally remains efficacious for the treatment of falciparum malaria. The emergence of partial artemisinin resistance does not currently meet the criteria to initiate change on treatment guidelines nor affect ACT routine procurement and distribution. It is high time for scientists and transitional researchers to be more critical and vigilant on further changes so that national programmes will be able to make informed decisions as well as remain alert and prepared for any change that may be required in the future.

Country wide surveillance reveals prevalent artemisinin partial resistance mutations with evidence for multiple origins and expansion of high level sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine resistance mutations in northwest Tanzania.

Background: Emergence of artemisinin partial resistance (ART-R) in Plasmodium falciparum is a growing threat to the efficacy of artemisinin combination therapies (ACT) and the efforts for malaria elimination. The emergence of Plasmodium falciparum Kelch13 (K13) R561H in Rwanda raised concern about the impact in neighboring Tanzania. In addition, regional concern over resistance affecting sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP), which is used for chemoprevention strategies, is high. Methods: To enhance longitudinal monitoring, the Molecular Surveillance of Malaria in Tanzania (MSMT) project was launched in 2020 with the goal of assessing and mapping antimalarial resistance. Community and clinic samples were assessed for resistance polymorphisms using a molecular inversion probe platform. Findings: Genotyping of 6,278 samples collected countrywide in 2021 revealed a focus of K13 561H mutants in northwestern Tanzania (Kagera) with prevalence of 7.7% (50/649). A small number of 561H mutants (about 1%) were found as far as 800 km away in Tabora, Manyara, and Njombe. Genomic analysis suggests some of these parasites are highly related to isolates collected in Rwanda in 2015, supporting regional spread of 561H. However, a novel haplotype was also observed, likely indicating a second origin in the region. Other validated resistance polymorphisms (622I and 675V) were also identified. A focus of high sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine drug resistance was also identified in Kagera with a prevalence of dihydrofolate reductase 164L of 15% (80/526). Interpretation: These findings demonstrate the K13 561H mutation is entrenched in the region and that multiple origins of ART-R, similar as to what was seen in Southeast Asia, have occurred. Mutations associated with high levels of SP resistance are increasing. These results raise concerns about the long-term efficacy of artemisinin and chemoprevention antimalarials in the region. Funding: This study was funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and the National Institutes of Health.

Plasmodium falciparum resistant to artemisinin and diagnostics have emerged in Ethiopia.

Diagnosis and treatment of Plasmodium falciparum infections are required for effective malaria control and are pre-requisites for malaria elimination efforts; hence we need to monitor emergence, evolution and spread of drug- and diagnostics-resistant parasites. We deep sequenced key drug-resistance mutations and 1,832 SNPs in the parasite genomes of 609 malaria cases collected during a diagnostic-resistance surveillance study in Ethiopia. We found that 8.0% (95% CI 7.0-9.0) of malaria cases were caused by P. falciparum carrying the candidate artemisinin partial-resistance kelch13 (K13) 622I mutation, which was less common in diagnostic-resistant parasites mediated by histidine-rich proteins 2 and 3 (pfhrp2/3) deletions than in wild-type parasites (P = 0.03). Identity-by-descent analyses showed that K13 622I parasites were significantly more related to each other than to wild type (P < 0.001), consistent with recent expansion and spread of this mutation. Pfhrp2/3-deleted parasites were also highly related, with evidence of clonal transmissions at the district level. Of concern, 8.2% of K13 622I parasites also carried the pfhrp2/3 deletions. Close monitoring of the spread of combined drug- and diagnostic-resistant parasites is needed.

Temporal and spatial analysis of Plasmodium falciparum genomics reveals patterns of parasite connectivity in a low-transmission district in Southern Province, Zambia.

BACKGROUND: Understanding temporal and spatial dynamics of malaria transmission will help to inform effective interventions and strategies in regions approaching elimination. Parasite genomics are increasingly used to monitor epidemiologic trends, including assessing residual transmission across seasons and importation of malaria into these regions. METHODS: In a low and seasonal transmission setting of southern Zambia, a total of 441 Plasmodium falciparum samples collected from 8 neighbouring health centres between 2012 and 2018 were genotyped using molecular inversion probes (MIPs n = 1793) targeting a total of 1832 neutral and geographically informative SNPs distributed across the parasite genome. After filtering for quality and missingness, 302 samples and 1410 SNPs were retained and used for downstream population genomic analyses. RESULTS: The analyses revealed most (67%, n = 202) infections harboured one clone (monogenomic) with some variation at local level suggesting low, but heterogenous malaria transmission. Relatedness identity-by-descent (IBD) analysis revealed variable distribution of IBD segments across the genome and 6% of pairs were highly-related (IBD ≥ 0.25). Some of the highly-related parasite populations persisted across multiple seasons, suggesting that persistence of malaria in this low-transmission region is fueled by parasites "seeding" across the dry season. For recent years, clusters of clonal parasites were identified that were dissimilar to the general parasite population, suggesting parasite populations were increasingly fragmented at small spatial scales due to intensified control efforts. Clustering analysis using PCA and t-SNE showed a lack of substantial parasite population structure. CONCLUSION: Leveraging both genomic and epidemiological data provided comprehensive picture of fluctuations in parasite populations in this pre-elimination setting of southern Zambia over 7 years.

Predicting the long-term impact of rotavirus vaccination in 112 countries from 2006 to 2034: A transmission modeling analysis.

Rotavirus vaccination has been shown to reduce rotavirus burden in many countries, but the long-term magnitude of vaccine impacts is unclear, particularly in low-income countries. We use a transmission model to estimate the long-term impact of rotavirus vaccination on deaths and disability adjusted life years (DALYs) from 2006 to 2034 for 112 low- and middle-income countries. We also explore the predicted effectiveness of a one- vs two- dose series and the relative contribution of direct vs indirect effects to overall impacts. To validate the model, we compare predicted percent reductions in severe rotavirus cases with the percent reduction in rotavirus positivity among gastroenteritis hospital admissions for 10 countries with pre- and post-vaccine introduction data. We estimate that vaccination would reduce deaths from rotavirus by 49.1 % (95 % UI: 46.6-54.3 %) by 2034 under realistic coverage scenarios, compared to a scenario without vaccination. Most of this benefit is due to direct benefit to vaccinated individuals (explaining 69-97 % of the overall impact), but indirect protection also appears to enhance impacts. We find that a one-dose schedule would only be about 57 % as effective as a two-dose schedule 12 years after vaccine introduction. Our model closely reproduced observed reductions in rotavirus positivity in the first few years after vaccine introduction in select countries. Rotavirus vaccination is likely to have a substantial impact on rotavirus gastroenteritis and its mortality burden. To sustain this benefit, the complete series of doses is needed.

Capturing spatiotemporal dynamics of Alaskan groundfish catch using signed-rank estimation for varying coefficient models.

Varying coefficient models (VCMs) are commonly used for their high degree of flexibility in modeling complex systems. Many applications in fisheries utilize VCMs to capture spatial variation in populations of marine fishes. All of these applications use the penalized least squares method for estimation. However, this approach is known to be sensitive to non-normal distributions and outliers, a common feature of ecological data. Robust estimation methods are more appropriate for handling noisy and non-normal data. We present the application of a signed-rank-based procedure for obtaining robust estimates in VCMs on a fisheries dataset from the North Pacific Ocean. We demonstrates that the signed-rank-based estimation method provides better fit and improved prediction in comparison to the classical likelihood VCM fits in both simulations and the real data application, particularly when the distributions are non-normal and may be misspecified. Rank-based estimation of VCMs is therefore valuable for modeling ecological data and obtaining useful inferences where non-normality and outliers are common.