A stratified compartmental model for the transmission of Sparicotyle chrysophrii (Platyhelminthes: Monogenea) in gilthead seabream (Sparus aurata) fish farms†.

The rapid development of intensive fish farming has been associated with the spreading of infectious diseases, pathogens and parasites. One such parasite is Sparicotyle chrysophrii (Platyhelminthes: Monogenea), which commonly infects cultured gilthead seabream (Sparus aurata)-a vital species in Mediterranean aquaculture. The parasite attaches to fish gills and can cause epizootics in sea cages with relevant consequences for fish health and associated economic losses for fish farmers. In this study, a novel stratified compartmental epidemiological model of S. chrysophrii transmission was developed and analysed. The model accounts for the temporal progression of the number of juvenile and adult parasites attached to each fish, as well as the abundance of eggs and oncomiracidia. We applied the model to data collected in a seabream farm, where the fish population and the number of adult parasites attached to fish gills were closely monitored in six different cages for 10 months. The model successfully replicated the temporal dynamics of the distribution of the parasite abundance within fish hosts and simulated the effects of environmental factors, such as water temperature, on the transmission dynamics. The findings highlight the potential of modelling tools for farming management, aiding in the prevention and control of S. chrysophrii infections in Mediterranean aquaculture.

Spatially explicit effective reproduction numbers from incidence and mobility data.

Current methods for near real-time estimation of effective reproduction numbers from surveillance data overlook mobility fluxes of infectors and susceptible individuals within a spatially connected network (the metapopulation). Exchanges of infections among different communities may thus be misrepresented unless explicitly measured and accounted for in the renewal equations. Here, we first derive the equations that include spatially explicit effective reproduction numbers, ℛk(t), in an arbitrary community k. These equations embed a suitable connection matrix blending mobility among connected communities and mobility-related containment measures. Then, we propose a tool to estimate, in a Bayesian framework involving particle filtering, the values of ℛk(t) maximizing a suitable likelihood function reproducing observed patterns of infections in space and time. We validate our tools against synthetic data and apply them to real COVID-19 epidemiological records in a severely affected and carefully monitored Italian region. Differences arising between connected and disconnected reproduction numbers (the latter being calculated with existing methods, to which our formulation reduces by setting mobility to zero) suggest that current standards may be improved in their estimation of disease transmission over time.

New Limits on Leptophilic Axionlike Particles and Majorons from ArgoNeuT.

Axionlike particles are among the most studied extensions of the standard model. In this Letter we study the bounds that the ArgoNeuT experiment can put on the parameter space of two specific scenarios: leptophilic axionlike particles and Majorons. We find that such bounds are currently the most constraining ones in the (0.2-1.7) GeV mass range.

River ecosystem metabolism and carbon biogeochemistry in a changing world.

River networks represent the largest biogeochemical nexus between the continents, ocean and atmosphere. Our current understanding of the role of rivers in the global carbon cycle remains limited, which makes it difficult to predict how global change may alter the timing and spatial distribution of riverine carbon sequestration and greenhouse gas emissions. Here we review the state of river ecosystem metabolism research and synthesize the current best available estimates of river ecosystem metabolism. We quantify the organic and inorganic carbon flux from land to global rivers and show that their net ecosystem production and carbon dioxide emissions shift the organic to inorganic carbon balance en route from land to the coastal ocean. Furthermore, we discuss how global change may affect river ecosystem metabolism and related carbon fluxes and identify research directions that can help to develop better predictions of the effects of global change on riverine ecosystem processes. We argue that a global river observing system will play a key role in understanding river networks and their future evolution in the context of the global carbon budget.

Optimal control of the spatial allocation of COVID-19 vaccines: Italy as a case study.

While campaigns of vaccination against SARS-CoV-2 are underway across the world, communities face the challenge of a fair and effective distribution of a limited supply of doses. Current vaccine allocation strategies are based on criteria such as age or risk. In the light of strong spatial heterogeneities in disease history and transmission, we explore spatial allocation strategies as a complement to existing approaches. Given the practical constraints and complex epidemiological dynamics, designing effective vaccination strategies at a country scale is an intricate task. We propose a novel optimal control framework to derive the best possible vaccine allocation for given disease transmission projections and constraints on vaccine supply and distribution logistics. As a proof-of-concept, we couple our framework with an existing spatially explicit compartmental COVID-19 model tailored to the Italian geographic and epidemiological context. We optimize the vaccine allocation on scenarios of unfolding disease transmission across the 107 provinces of Italy, from January to April 2021. For each scenario, the optimal solution significantly outperforms alternative strategies that prioritize provinces based on incidence, population distribution, or prevalence of susceptibles. Our results suggest that the complex interplay between the mobility network and the spatial heterogeneities implies highly non-trivial prioritization strategies for effective vaccination campaigns. Our work demonstrates the potential of optimal control for complex and heterogeneous epidemiological landscapes at country, and possibly global, scales.

Loss of geomorphic diversity in shallow tidal embayments promoted by storm-surge barriers.

Coastal flooding prevention measures, such as storm-surge barriers, are being widely adopted globally because of the accelerating rise in sea levels. However, their impacts on the morphodynamics of shallow tidal embayments remain poorly understood. Here, we combine field data and modeling results from the microtidal Venice Lagoon (Italy) to identify short- and long-term consequences of flood regulation on lagoonal landforms. Artificial reduction of water levels enhances wave-induced sediment resuspension from tidal flats, promoting in-channel deposition, at the expense of salt marsh vertical accretion. In Venice, we estimate that the first 15 closures of the recently installed mobile floodgates operated between October 2020 and January 2021 contributed to a 12% reduction in marsh deposition, simultaneously promoting a generalized channel infilling. Therefore, suitable countermeasures need to be taken to offset these processes and prevent significant losses of geomorphic diversity due to repeated floodgate closures, whose frequency will increase as sea levels rise further.

The Metabolic Regimes at the Scale of an Entire Stream Network Unveiled Through Sensor Data and Machine Learning.

Streams and rivers form dense networks that drain the terrestrial landscape and are relevant for biodiversity dynamics, ecosystem functioning, and transport and transformation of carbon. Yet, resolving in both space and time gross primary production (GPP), ecosystem respiration (ER) and net ecosystem production (NEP) at the scale of entire stream networks has been elusive so far. Here, combining Random Forest (RF) with time series of sensor data in 12 reach sites, we predicted annual regimes of GPP, ER, and NEP in 292 individual stream reaches and disclosed properties emerging from the network they form. We further predicted available light and thermal regimes for the entire network and expanded the library of stream metabolism predictors. We found that the annual network-scale metabolism was heterotrophic yet with a clear peak of autotrophy in spring. In agreement with the River Continuum Concept, small headwaters and larger downstream reaches contributed 16% and 60%, respectively, to the annual network-scale GPP. Our results suggest that ER rather than GPP drives the metabolic stability at the network scale, which is likely attributable to the buffering function of the streambed for ER, while GPP is more susceptible to flow-induced disturbance and fluctuations in light availability. Furthermore, we found large terrestrial subsidies fueling ER, pointing to an unexpectedly high network-scale level of heterotrophy, otherwise masked by simply considering reach-scale NEP estimations. Our machine learning approach sheds new light on the spatiotemporal dynamics of ecosystem metabolism at the network scale, which is a prerequisite to integrate aquatic and terrestrial carbon cycling at relevant scales. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at (10.1007/s10021-021-00618-8).

The epidemicity index of recurrent SARS-CoV-2 infections.

Several indices can predict the long-term fate of emerging infectious diseases and the effect of their containment measures, including a variety of reproduction numbers (e.g. [Formula: see text]). Other indices evaluate the potential for transient increases of epidemics eventually doomed to disappearance, based on generalized reactivity analysis. They identify conditions for perturbations to a stable disease-free equilibrium ([Formula: see text]) to grow, possibly causing significant damage. Here, we introduce the epidemicity index e0, a threshold-type indicator: if e0 > 0, initial foci may cause infection peaks even if [Formula: see text]. Therefore, effective containment measures should achieve a negative epidemicity index. We use spatially explicit models to rank containment measures for projected evolutions of the ongoing pandemic in Italy. There, we show that, while the effective reproduction number was below one for a sizable timespan, epidemicity remained positive, allowing recurrent infection flare-ups well before the major epidemic rebounding observed in the fall.

Emergent spatial patterns of competing benthic and pelagic algae in a river network: A parsimonious basin-scale modeling analysis.

Algae, as primary producers in riverine ecosystems, are found in two distinct habitats: benthic and pelagic algae typically prevalent in shallow/small and deep/large streams, respectively. Over an entire river continuum, spatiotemporal patterns of the two algal communities reflect specificity in habitat preference determined by geomorphic structure, hydroclimatic controls, and spatiotemporal heterogeneity in nutrient loads from point- and diffuse-sources. By representing these complex interactions between geomorphic, hydrologic, geochemical, and ecological processes, we present here a new river-network-scale dynamic model (CnANDY) for pelagic (A) and benthic (B) algae competing for energy and one limiting nutrient (phosphorus, P). We used the urbanized Weser River Basin in Germany (7th-order; ~8.4 million population; ~46 K km2) as a case study and analyzed simulations for equilibrium mass and concentrations under steady median river discharge. We also examined P, A, and B spatial patterns in four sub-basins. We found an emerging pattern characterized by scaling of P and A concentrations over stream-order ω, whereas B concentration was described by three distinct phases. Furthermore, an abrupt algal regime shift occurred in intermediate streams from B dominance in ω≤3 to exclusive A presence in ω≥6. Modeled and long-term basin-scale monitored dissolved P concentrations matched well for ω>4, and with overlapping ranges in ω<3. Power-spectral analyses for the equilibrium P, A, and B mass distributions along hydrological flow paths showed stronger clustering compared to geomorphological attributes, and longer spatial autocorrelation distance for A compared to B. We discuss the implications of our findings for advancing hydro-ecological concepts, guiding monitoring, informing management of water quality, restoring aquatic habitat, and extending CnANDY model to other river basins.

Sensor-based localization of epidemic sources on human mobility networks.

We investigate the source detection problem in epidemiology, which is one of the most important issues for control of epidemics. Mathematically, we reformulate the problem as one of identifying the relevant component in a multivariate Gaussian mixture model. Focusing on the study of cholera and diseases with similar modes of transmission, we calibrate the parameters of our mixture model using human mobility networks within a stochastic, spatially explicit epidemiological model for waterborne disease. Furthermore, we adopt a Bayesian perspective, so that prior information on source location can be incorporated (e.g., reflecting the impact of local conditions). Posterior-based inference is performed, which permits estimates in the form of either individual locations or regions. Importantly, our estimator only requires first-arrival times of the epidemic by putative observers, typically located only at a small proportion of nodes. The proposed method is demonstrated within the context of the 2000-2002 cholera outbreak in the KwaZulu-Natal province of South Africa.

Range of reproduction number estimates for COVID-19 spread.

To monitor local and global COVID-19 outbreaks, and to plan containment measures, accessible and comprehensible decision-making tools need to be based on the growth rates of new confirmed infections, hospitalization or case fatality rates. Growth rates of new cases form the empirical basis for estimates of a variety of reproduction numbers, dimensionless numbers whose value, when larger than unity, describes surging infections and generally worsening epidemiological conditions. Typically, these determinations rely on noisy or incomplete data gained over limited periods of time, and on many parameters to estimate. This paper examines how estimates from data and models of time-evolving reproduction numbers of national COVID-19 infection spread change by using different techniques and assumptions. Given the importance acquired by reproduction numbers as diagnostic tools, assessing their range of possible variations obtainable from the same epidemiological data is relevant. We compute control reproduction numbers from Swiss and Italian COVID-19 time series adopting both data convolution (renewal equation) and a SEIR-type model. Within these two paradigms we run a comparative analysis of the possible inferences obtained through approximations of the distributions typically used to describe serial intervals, generation, latency and incubation times, and the delays between onset of symptoms and notification. Our results suggest that estimates of reproduction numbers under these different assumptions may show significant temporal differences, while the actual variability range of computed values is rather small.

Permafrost dynamics and the risk of anthrax transmission: a modelling study.

A recent outbreak of anthrax disease, severely affecting reindeer herds in Siberia, has been reportedly associated to the presence of infected carcasses or spores released from the active layer over permafrost, which is thawing and thickening at increasing rates, thus underlying the re-emerging nature of this pathogen in the Arctic region because of warming temperatures. Anthrax is a global zoonotic and epizootic disease, with a high case-fatality ratio in infected animals. Its transmission is mediated by environmental contamination through highly resistant spores which can persist in the soil for several decades. Here we develop and analyze a new epidemiological model for anthrax transmission that is specifically tailored to the Arctic environmental conditions. The model describes transmission dynamics including also herding practices (e.g. seasonal grazing) and the role of the active layer over permafrost acting as a long-term storage of spores that could be viable for disease transmission during thawing periods. Model dynamics are investigated through linear stability analysis, Floquet theory for periodically forced systems, and a series of simulations with realistic forcings. Results show how the temporal variability of grazing and active layer thawing may influence the dynamics of anthrax disease and, specifically, favor sustained pathogen transmission. Particularly warm years, favoring deep active layers, are shown to be associated with an increase risk of anthrax outbreaks, and may also foster infections in the following years. Our results enable preliminary insights into measures (e.g. changes in herding practice) that may be adopted to decrease the risk of infection and lay the basis to possibly establish optimal procedures for preventing transmission; furthermore, they elicit the need of further investigations and observation campaigns focused on anthrax dynamics in the Arctic environment.

The geography of COVID-19 spread in Italy and implications for the relaxation of confinement measures.

The pressing need to restart socioeconomic activities locked-down to control the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Italy must be coupled with effective methodologies to selectively relax containment measures. Here we employ a spatially explicit model, properly attentive to the role of inapparent infections, capable of: estimating the expected unfolding of the outbreak under continuous lockdown (baseline trajectory); assessing deviations from the baseline, should lockdown relaxations result in increased disease transmission; calculating the isolation effort required to prevent a resurgence of the outbreak. A 40% increase in effective transmission would yield a rebound of infections. A control effort capable of isolating daily  ~5.5% of the exposed and highly infectious individuals proves necessary to maintain the epidemic curve onto the decreasing baseline trajectory. We finally provide an ex-post assessment based on the epidemiological data that became available after the initial analysis and estimate the actual disease transmission that occurred after weakening the lockdown.

Generation and application of river network analogues for use in ecology and evolution.

Several key processes in freshwater ecology are governed by the connectivity inherent to dendritic river networks. These have extensively been analyzed from a geomorphological and hydrological viewpoint, yet structures classically used in ecological modeling have been poorly representative of the structure of real river basins, often failing to capture well-known scaling features of natural rivers. Pioneering work identified optimal channel networks (OCNs) as spanning trees reproducing all scaling features characteristic of natural stream networks worldwide. While OCNs have been used to create landscapes for studies on metapopulations, biodiversity, and epidemiology, their generation has not been generally accessible.Given the increasing interest in dendritic riverine networks by ecologists and evolutionary biologists, we here present a method to generate OCNs and, to facilitate its application, we provide the R-package OCNet. Owing to the stochastic process generating OCNs, multiple network replicas spanning the same surface can be built; this allows performing computational experiments whose results are irrespective of the particular shape of a single river network. The OCN construct also enables the generation of elevational gradients derived from the optimal network configuration, which can constitute three-dimensional landscapes for spatial studies in both terrestrial and freshwater realms. Moreover, the package provides functions that aggregate OCNs into an arbitrary number of nodes, calculate several descriptors of river networks, and draw relevant network features.We describe the main functionalities of the package and its integration with other R-packages commonly used in spatial ecology. Moreover, we exemplify the generation of OCNs and discuss an application to a metapopulation model for an invasive riverine species.In conclusion, OCNet provides a powerful tool to generate realistic river network analogues for various applications. It thereby allows the design of spatially realistic studies in increasingly impacted ecosystems and enhances our knowledge on spatial processes in freshwater ecology in general.

Spread and dynamics of the COVID-19 epidemic in Italy: Effects of emergency containment measures.

The spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Italy prompted drastic measures for transmission containment. We examine the effects of these interventions, based on modeling of the unfolding epidemic. We test modeling options of the spatially explicit type, suggested by the wave of infections spreading from the initial foci to the rest of Italy. We estimate parameters of a metacommunity Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR)-like transmission model that includes a network of 107 provinces connected by mobility at high resolution, and the critical contribution of presymptomatic and asymptomatic transmission. We estimate a generalized reproduction number ([Formula: see text] = 3.60 [3.49 to 3.84]), the spectral radius of a suitable next-generation matrix that measures the potential spread in the absence of containment interventions. The model includes the implementation of progressive restrictions after the first case confirmed in Italy (February 21, 2020) and runs until March 25, 2020. We account for uncertainty in epidemiological reporting, and time dependence of human mobility matrices and awareness-dependent exposure probabilities. We draw scenarios of different containment measures and their impact. Results suggest that the sequence of restrictions posed to mobility and human-to-human interactions have reduced transmission by 45% (42 to 49%). Averted hospitalizations are measured by running scenarios obtained by selectively relaxing the imposed restrictions and total about 200,000 individuals (as of March 25, 2020). Although a number of assumptions need to be reexamined, like age structure in social mixing patterns and in the distribution of mobility, hospitalization, and fatality, we conclude that verifiable evidence exists to support the planning of emergency measures.

Unexpected large evasion fluxes of carbon dioxide from turbulent streams draining the world's mountains.

Inland waters, including streams and rivers, are active components of the global carbon cycle. Despite the large areal extent of the world's mountains, the role of mountain streams for global carbon fluxes remains elusive. Using recent insights from gas exchange in turbulent streams, we found that areal CO2 evasion fluxes from mountain streams equal or exceed those reported from tropical and boreal streams, typically regarded as hotspots of aquatic carbon fluxes. At the regional scale of the Swiss Alps, we present evidence that emitted CO2 derives from lithogenic and biogenic sources within the catchment and delivered by the groundwater to the streams. At a global scale, we estimate the CO2 evasion from mountain streams to 167 ± 1.5 Tg C yr-1, which is high given their relatively low areal contribution to the global stream and river networks. Our findings shed new light on mountain streams for global carbon fluxes.

Conditions for transient epidemics of waterborne disease in spatially explicit systems.

Waterborne diseases are a diverse family of infections transmitted through ingestion of-or contact with-water infested with pathogens. Outbreaks of waterborne infections often show well-defined spatial signatures that are typically linked to local eco-epidemiological conditions, water-mediated pathogen transport and human mobility. In this work, we apply a spatially explicit network model describing the transmission cycle of waterborne pathogens to determine invasion conditions in metacommunities endowed with a realistic spatial structure. Specifically, we aim to define conditions under which pathogens can temporarily colonize a set of human communities, thus triggering a transient epidemic outbreak. To that end, we apply generalized reactivity analysis, a recently developed methodological framework for the study of transient dynamics in ecological systems subject to external perturbations. The study of pathogen invasion is complemented by the detection of the spatial signatures associated with the perturbations to a disease-free system that are expected to be amplified the most over different time scales. Understanding the drivers of waterborne disease dynamics over time scales that are relevant to epidemic and/or endemic transmission is a crucial, cross-disciplinary challenge, as large portions of the developing world still struggle to cope with the burden of these infections.

A minimalist model of extinction and range dynamics of virtual mountain species driven by warming temperatures.

A longstanding question in ecology concerns the prediction of the fate of mountain species under climate change, where climatic and geomorphic factors but also endogenous species characteristics are jointly expected to control species distributions. A significant step forward would single out reliably landscape effects, given their constraining role and relative ease of theoretical manipulation. Here, we address population dynamics in ecosystems where the substrates for ecological interactions are mountain landscapes subject to climate warming. We use a minimalist model of metapopulation dynamics based on virtual species (i.e. a suitable assemblage of focus species) where dispersal processes interact with the spatial structure of the landscape. Climate warming is subsumed by an upward shift of species habitat altering the metapopulation capacity of the landscape and hence species viability. We find that the landscape structure is a powerful determinant of species survival, owing to the specific role of the predictably evolving connectivity of the various habitats. Range shifts and lags in tracking suitable habitat experienced by virtual species under warming conditions are singled out in different landscapes. The range of parameters is identified for which these virtual species (characterized by comparable viability thus restricting their possible fitnesses and niche widths) prove unable to cope with environmental change. The statistics of the proportion of species bound to survive is identified for each landscape, providing the temporal evolution of species range shifts and the related expected occupation patterns. A baseline dynamic model for predicting species fates in evolving habitats is thus provided.

Evolving biodiversity patterns in changing river networks.

Biodiversity patterns are governed by landscape structure and dispersal strategies of residing organisms. Landscape, however, changes, and dispersal strategies evolve with it. It is unclear how these biological and geomorphological changes interplay to affect biodiversity patterns. Here we develop metacommunity models that allow for dispersal evolution and implement them in river networks with different structures, mimicking the geomorphological dynamics of fluvial landscape. For a given dispersal kernel, a more compact network structure, where local communities are closer to one another, results in biodiversity patterns characteristic of a more well-mixed environment. When dispersal evolution is present, however, organisms adopt more local dispersal strategies in a more compact network, counteracting the effects of the more well-mixed environment. The combined effects lead to biodiversity patterns different from when dispersal evolution is absent. These findings underscore the importance of taking the interplay between the evolution of dispersal, landscape, and biodiversity patterns into account when studying and managing biodiversity in changing landscape.

Estimating species distribution and abundance in river networks using environmental DNA.

All organisms leave traces of DNA in their environment. This environmental DNA (eDNA) is often used to track occurrence patterns of target species. Applications are especially promising in rivers, where eDNA can integrate information about populations upstream. The dispersion of eDNA in rivers is modulated by complex processes of transport and decay through the dendritic river network, and we currently lack a method to extract quantitative information about the location and density of populations contributing to the eDNA signal. Here, we present a general framework to reconstruct the upstream distribution and abundance of a target species across a river network, based on observed eDNA concentrations and hydro-geomorphological features of the network. The model captures well the catchment-wide spatial biomass distribution of two target species: a sessile invertebrate (the bryozoan Fredericella sultana) and its parasite (the myxozoan Tetracapsuloides bryosalmonae). Our method is designed to easily integrate general biological and hydrological data and to enable spatially explicit estimates of the distribution of sessile and mobile species in fluvial ecosystems based on eDNA sampling.