Long-Term Trends in the Protection Against Severe Courses of COVID-19 by Vaccination.

BACKGROUND: The long-term course of protection against severe COVID-19 courses by vaccine-induced or hybrid immunity in Germany is unclear. METHODS: We studied 146 457 cases aged 60-99 years in the German federal state of Bavaria who were immunized against COVID-19 and tested positive for it from February 2022 to January 2023. We calculated adjusted hazard ratios for a severe course (hospitalization or death due to COVID-19) for different intervals between the onset of full primary or booster immunity and the date of the infection. RESULTS: 3342 (2.3%) severe courses of COVID-19 were observed in the first 60 days after the infection. The risk of a severe course rose with the interval between the onset of immune protection and the infection (adjusted hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals at 6, 9, 12, and 15 months: 1.14 [1.08; 1.20]; 1.33 [1.24; 1.42]; 1.39 [1.25; 1.54]; 1.61 [1.35; 1.93]). The risk rose more slowly when mRNA-based vaccines were used exclusively. In a previous study, we observed 82% initial efficacy in cases aged 60 and above who received a booster vaccination (compared to unvaccinated cases) and an absolute risk reduction of 2.1%. If one extrapolates these findings to the current study, the residual efficacy and absolute risk reduction are found to be approximately 71% and 1.8% (respectively) at 6 months, and 32% and 0.8% at 15 months. CONCLUSION: These results indicate that, during the Omicron wave, the protection of older persons against a severe COVID-19 course gradually declined from six months after vaccination onward. The limitations of this study include confounders that could not be taken into account, possible misclassification of the cause of death, and selection bias due to missing information about vaccination status and severe COVID-19 courses.

Type 1 Diabetes Incidence and Risk in Children With a Diagnosis of COVID-19.

This study used a population-based individual patient data set that included diagnoses of COVID-19 to determine whether there was a temporal association between COVID-19 and type 1 diabetes in children.

Cross-sectional seroprevalence surveys of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in children in Germany, June 2020 to May 2021.

The rate of SARS-CoV-2 infections in children remains unclear due to many asymptomatic cases. We present a study of cross-sectional seroprevalence surveys of anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG in 10,358 children recruited in paediatric hospitals across Germany from June 2020 to May 2021. Seropositivity increased from 2.0% (95% CI 1.6, 2.5) to 10.8% (95% CI 8.7, 12.9) in March 2021 with little change up to May 2021. Rates increased by migrant background (2.8%, 4.4% and 7.8% for no, one and two parents born outside Germany). Children under three were initially 3.6 (95% CI 2.3, 5.7) times more likely to be seropositive with levels equalising later. The ratio of seropositive cases per recalled infection decreased from 8.6 to 2.8. Since seropositivity exceeds the rate of recalled infections considerably, serologic testing may provide a more valid estimate of infections, which is required to assess both the spread and the risk for severe outcomes of SARS-CoV-2 infections.

Is the BNT162b2 COVID-19 vaccine effective in elderly populations? Results from population data from Bavaria, Germany.

BACKGROUND: The efficacy of the BioNTech-Pfizer BNT162b2 vaccination in the elderly (≥80 years) could not be fully assessed in the BioNTech-Pfizer trial due to low numbers in this age group. We aimed to evaluate the effectiveness of the BioNTech-Pfizer (BNT162b2) vaccine to prevent SARS-CoV-2 infection and severe outcomes in octo- and novo-generians in a German state setting. METHODS AND FINDINGS: A prospective observational study of 708,187 persons aged ≥80 years living in Bavaria, Germany, was conducted between Jan 9 to Apr 11, 2021. We assessed the vaccine effectiveness (VE) for two doses of the BNT162b2 vaccine with respect to SARS-CoV-2 infection and related hospitalisations and mortality. Additionally, differences in VE by age groups ≥80 to ≤89 years and ≥90 years were studied. Analyses were adjusted by sex. By the end of follow-up, 63.8% of the Bavarian population ≥80 years had received one dose, and 52.7% two doses, of the BNT162b2 vaccine. Two doses of the BNT162b2 vaccine lowered the proportion of SARS-CoV-2 infections and related outcomes, resulting in VE estimates of 68.3% (95% confidence interval (CI) 65.5%, 70.9%) for infection, 73.2% (95% CI 65.3%, 79.3%) for hospitalisation, and 85.1% (95% CI 80.0%, 89.0%) for mortality. Sex differences in the risk of COVID-19 outcomes observed among unvaccinated persons disappeared after two BNT162b2 vaccine doses. Overall, the BNT162b2 vaccine was equally effective in octo- and novo-genarians. CONCLUSIONS: Two doses of BioNTech-Pfizer's BNT162b2 vaccine is highly effective against COVID-19 outcomes in elderly persons.

Associations of breastfeeding with childhood autoimmunity, allergies, and overweight: The Environmental Determinants of Diabetes in the Young (TEDDY) study.

BACKGROUND: Breastfeeding has beneficial effects on numerous health outcomes. OBJECTIVES: We investigated whether breastfeeding duration is associated with the development of early childhood autoimmunity, allergies, or obesity in a multinational prospective birth cohort. METHODS: Infants with genetic susceptibility for type 1 diabetes (n = 8676) were followed for the development of autoantibodies to islet autoantigens or transglutaminase, allergies, and for anthropometric measurements to a median age of 8.3 y (IQR: 2.8-10.2 y). Information on breastfeeding was collected at 3 mo of age and prospectively thereafter. A propensity score for longer breastfeeding was calculated from the variables that were likely to influence any or exclusive breastfeeding. The risks of developing autoimmunity or allergy were assessed using Cox proportional hazards models, and the risk of obesity at 5.5 y of age was assessed using logistic regression with adjustment by the propensity score. RESULTS: Breastfeeding duration was not associated with a lower risk of either islet or transglutaminase autoimmunity (any breastfeeding >6 mo, adjusted HR: 1.07; 95% CI: 0.96, 1.19; exclusive breastfeeding >3 mo, adjusted HR: 1.03; 95% CI: 0.92, 1.15). Exclusive breastfeeding >3 mo was associated with a decreased risk of seasonal allergic rhinitis (adjusted HR: 0.70; 95% CI: 0.53, 0.92; P < 0.01). Any breastfeeding >6 mo and exclusive breastfeeding >3 mo were associated with decreased risk of obesity (adjusted OR: 0.62; 95% CI: 0.47, 0.81; P < 0.001; and adjusted OR: 0.68; 95% CI: 0.47, 0.95; P < 0.05, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Longer breastfeeding was not associated with a lower risk of childhood (islet or transglutaminase) autoimmunity in genetically at-risk children but was associated with decreased risk of seasonal allergic rhinitis and obesity at 5.5 y of age.

Incidence and risk factors of cerebral sinovenous thrombosis in infants.

AIM: To describe the incidence of term and preterm neonatal cerebral sinovenous thrombosis (CSVT) and identify perinatal risk factors. METHOD: This was a national capture-recapture calculation-corrected surveillance and nested case-control study. Infants born preterm and at term with magnetic resonance imaging-confirmed neonatal CSVT were identified by surveillance in all paediatric hospitals in Germany (2015-2017). Incidence was corrected for underreporting using a capture-recapture method in one federal state and then extrapolated nationwide. We reviewed PubMed for comparisons with previously reported incidence estimators. We used a population-based perinatal database for quality assurance to select four controls per case and applied univariate and multivariable regression for risk factor analysis. RESULTS: Fifty-one newborn infants (34 males, 17 females; 14 born preterm) with neonatal CSVT were reported in the 3-year period. The incidence of term and preterm neonatal CSVT was 6.6 (95% confidence interval [CI] 4.4-8.7) per 100 000 live births. Median age at time of confirmation of the diagnosis was 9.95 days (range 0-39d). In the univariate analysis, male sex, preterm birth, hypoxia and related indicators (umbilical artery pH <7.1; 5-minute Apgar score <7; intubation/mask ventilation; perinatal asphyxia), operative vaginal delivery, emergency Caesarean section, and pathological fetal Doppler sonography were associated (p<0.05) with neonatal CSVT. Multivariable regression yielded hypoxia (odds ratio=20.3; 95% CI 8.1-50.8) as the independent risk factor. INTERPRETATION: Incidence of neonatal CSVT was within the range of other population-based studies. The results suggest that hypoxia is an important perinatal risk factor for the aetiology of neonatal CSVT.

Posterior subcapsular cataracts are a late effect after acute exposure to 0.5 Gy ionizing radiation in mice.

PURPOSE: The long-term effect of low and moderate doses of ionizing radiation on the lens is still a matter of debate and needs to be evaluated in more detail. MATERIAL AND METHODS: We conducted a detailed histological analysis of eyes from B6C3F1 mice cohorts after acute gamma irradiation (60Co source; 0.063 Gy/min) at young adult age of 10 weeks with doses of 0.063, 0.125, and 0.5 Gy. Sham irradiated (0 Gy) mice were used as controls. To test for genetic susceptibility heterozygous Ercc2 mutant mice were used and compared to wild-type mice of the same strain background. Mice of both sexes were included in all cohorts. Eyes were collected 4 h, 12, 18 and 24 months after irradiation. For a better understanding of the underlying mechanisms, metabolomics analyses were performed in lenses and plasma samples of the same mouse cohorts at 4 and 12 h as well as 12, 18 and 24 months after irradiation. For this purpose, a targeted analysis was chosen. RESULTS: This analysis revealed histological changes particularly in the posterior part of the lens that rarely can be observed by using Scheimpflug imaging, as we reported previously. We detected a significant increase of posterior subcapsular cataracts (PSCs) 18 and 24 months after irradiation with 0.5 Gy (odds ratio 9.3; 95% confidence interval 2.1-41.3) independent of sex and genotype. Doses below 0.5 Gy (i.e. 0.063 and 0.125 Gy) did not significantly increase the frequency of PSCs at any time point. In lenses, we observed a clear effect of sex and aging but not of irradiation or genotype. While metabolomics analyses of plasma from the same mice showed only a sex effect. CONCLUSIONS: This article demonstrates a significant radiation-induced increase in the incidence of PSCs, which could not be identified using Scheimpflug imaging as the only diagnostic tool.

Associations of area-level deprivation with adverse obstetric and perinatal outcomes in Bavaria, Germany: Results from a cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: We investigated associations of area-level deprivation with obstetric and perinatal outcomes in a large population-based routine dataset. METHODS: We used the data of n = 827,105 deliveries who were born in hospitals between 2009 to 2016 in Bavaria, Germany. The Bavarian Index of Multiple Deprivation (BIMD) on district level was assigned to each mother by the zip code of her residential address. We calculated odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for preterm deliveries, Caesarian sections (CS), stillbirths, small for gestational age (SGA) births and low 5-minute Apgar scores by BIMD quintiles with and without adjustment for potential confounders. RESULTS: We observed a significantly increased risk for preterm deliveries in mothers from the most deprived compared to the least deprived districts (e.g. OR [95% CI] for highest compared to lowest deprivation quintile: 1.06 [1.03, 1.09]) in adjusted analyses. Increased deprivation was also associated with higher SGA and secondary CS rates, but with lower proportions of stillbirths, primary CS and low Apgar scores. When one large clinic with an unusually high stillbirth rate was excluded, the association of BIMD with stillbirths was attenuated and almost disappeared. CONCLUSIONS: We found that area-level deprivation in Bavaria was positively associated with preterm and SGA births, confirming previous studies. In contrast, the finding of an inverse association between deprivation and both stillbirth rates and low Apgar score came somewhat surprising. However, we conclude that the stillbirths finding is spurious and reflects regional bias due to a clinic which seems to specialize in termination of pregnancies.

Risk factors for perinatal arterial ischaemic stroke: a large case-control study.

AIM: To identify maternal, obstetric, and neonatal risk factors related to perinatal arterial ischaemic stroke (PAIS) diagnosed within 28 days after birth and to understand the underlying pathophysiology. METHOD: For case and control ascertainment, we used active surveillance in 345 paediatric hospitals and a population-based perinatal database for quality assurance of hospital care. We analysed complete cases of PAIS using logistic regression. Multivariate analysis was guided by a directed acyclic graph. RESULTS: After exclusion of records with missing data, we analysed 134 individuals with PAIS and 576 comparison individuals. In univariate analysis, male sex, preterm birth (<37wks gestational age), small for gestational age (SGA), low umbilical artery pH (<7.1), low 5-minute-Apgar score (<7), multiple pregnancies, hypoxia, intubation/mask ventilation, nulliparity, Caesarean section, vaginal-operative delivery, chorioamnionitis, and oligohydramnios were associated with an increased risk. Mutual adjustment yielded male sex (odds ratio [OR] 1.81; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.20-2.73), multiple birth (OR 3.22; 95% CI 1.21-8.58), chorioamnionitis (OR 9.89; 95% CI 2.88-33.94), preterm birth (OR 1.86; 95% CI 1.01-3.43), and SGA (OR 3.05; 95% CI 1.76-5.28) as independent risk factors. INTERPRETATION: We confirmed the increased risk in males and the role of chorioamnionitis and SGA for PAIS, pointing to the importance of inflammatory processes and fetal-placental insufficiency. Multiple birth and preterm birth were additional risk factors. WHAT THIS PAPER ADDS: Chorioamnionitis and small for gestational age (SGA) precede perinatal arterial ischaemic stroke (PAIS). Chorioamnionitis and SGA are independent risk factors for PAIS. Inflammatory processes and fetal-placental insufficiency are the likely underlying mechanisms. Multiple birth and preterm birth are additional risk factors.

Metabolite-related dietary patterns and the development of islet autoimmunity.

The role of diet in type 1 diabetes development is poorly understood. Metabolites, which reflect dietary response, may help elucidate this role. We explored metabolomics and lipidomics differences between 352 cases of islet autoimmunity (IA) and controls in the TEDDY (The Environmental Determinants of Diabetes in the Young) study. We created dietary patterns reflecting pre-IA metabolite differences between groups and examined their association with IA. Secondary outcomes included IA cases positive for multiple autoantibodies (mAb+). The association of 853 plasma metabolites with outcomes was tested at seroconversion to IA, just prior to seroconversion, and during infancy. Key compounds in enriched metabolite sets were used to create dietary patterns reflecting metabolite composition, which were then tested for association with outcomes in the nested case-control subset and the full TEDDY cohort. Unsaturated phosphatidylcholines, sphingomyelins, phosphatidylethanolamines, glucosylceramides, and phospholipid ethers in infancy were inversely associated with mAb+ risk, while dicarboxylic acids were associated with an increased risk. An infancy dietary pattern representing higher levels of unsaturated phosphatidylcholines and phospholipid ethers, and lower sphingomyelins was protective for mAb+ in the nested case-control study only. Characterization of this high-risk infant metabolomics profile may help shape the future of early diagnosis or prevention efforts.

Combining fish and environmental PCR for diagnostics of diseased laboratory zebrafish in recirculating systems.

Precise knowledge of the health status of experimental fish is crucial to obtain high scientific and ethical standards in biomedical research. In addition to the use of sentinel fish, the examination of diseased fish is a fundamental part of all health monitoring concepts. PCR assays offer excellent sensitivity and the ability to test a broad variety of pathogenic agents in different sample types. Recently, it was shown that analysis of environmental samples such as water, sludge or detritus from static tanks can complement PCR analysis of fish and is actually more reliable for certain pathogens. In our study, we investigated whether the analysis of filtered water mixed with detritus of tanks including fish showing clinical signs of illness is suitable to complement health monitoring programs in recirculating systems. The obtained data indicate that pathogens such as Pseudoloma neurophilia or Myxidium streisingeri were exclusively or mainly found in fish, while mycobacteria were predominantly present in environmental samples. A combination of both sample types seems to be required for the detection of a broad range of infectious agents in zebrafish colonies using real-time PCR technology.

Genetic Contribution to the Divergence in Type 1 Diabetes Risk Between Children From the General Population and Children From Affected Families.

The risk for autoimmunity and subsequently type 1 diabetes is 10-fold higher in children with a first-degree family history of type 1 diabetes (FDR children) than in children in the general population (GP children). We analyzed children with high-risk HLA genotypes (n = 4,573) in the longitudinal TEDDY birth cohort to determine how much of the divergent risk is attributable to genetic enrichment in affected families. Enrichment for susceptible genotypes of multiple type 1 diabetes-associated genes and a novel risk gene, BTNL2, was identified in FDR children compared with GP children. After correction for genetic enrichment, the risks in the FDR and GP children converged but were not identical for multiple islet autoantibodies (hazard ratio [HR] 2.26 [95% CI 1.6-3.02]) and for diabetes (HR 2.92 [95% CI 2.05-4.16]). Convergence varied depending upon the degree of genetic susceptibility. Risks were similar in the highest genetic susceptibility group for multiple islet autoantibodies (14.3% vs .12.7%) and diabetes (4.8% vs. 4.1%) and were up to 5.8-fold divergent for children in the lowest genetic susceptibility group, decreasing incrementally in GP children but not in FDR children. These findings suggest that additional factors enriched within affected families preferentially increase the risk of autoimmunity and type 1 diabetes in lower genetic susceptibility strata.

Blood draws up to 3% of blood volume in clinical trials are safe in children.

AIM: Recommendations for maximum blood draw in children range from 1 to 5% despite limited evidence. The aim of the study was to assess the safety of blood draws in children aged six months to 12 years targeting volumes of 3% of total blood volume. METHODS: Children who experienced three-monthly blood draws during participation in one of three investigators initiated clinical trials conducted in our institution were examined. In total, 629 venous blood draws were performed in 141 children. Adverse events and blood counts were assessed. RESULTS: Overall, 608 adverse events were reported. None of these included symptoms that reflected concerns on blood draw volumes or frequency. Anaemia and red cell or haemoglobin measurements outside the normal age range were not observed. A reduction in haemoglobin, haematocrit, mean corpuscular haemoglobin, mean corpuscular haemoglobin concentration and mean corpuscular volume was noted in children participating in one of the three trials analysed. CONCLUSION: Regular blood draws of up to 3% of total blood volume were not associated with signs of anaemia or hypovolaemia in young children. We suggest that the European recommendations be revised for clinical studies in which children are not exposed to treatments that are associated with anaemia risk.

Progression from islet autoimmunity to clinical type 1 diabetes is influenced by genetic factors: results from the prospective TEDDY study.

BACKGROUND: Progression time from islet autoimmunity to clinical type 1 diabetes is highly variable and the extent that genetic factors contribute is unknown. METHODS: In 341 islet autoantibody-positive children with the human leucocyte antigen (HLA) DR3/DR4-DQ8 or the HLA DR4-DQ8/DR4-DQ8 genotype from the prospective TEDDY (The Environmental Determinants of Diabetes in the Young) study, we investigated whether a genetic risk score that had previously been shown to predict islet autoimmunity is also associated with disease progression. RESULTS: Islet autoantibody-positive children with a genetic risk score in the lowest quartile had a slower progression from single to multiple autoantibodies (p=0.018), from single autoantibodies to diabetes (p=0.004), and by trend from multiple islet autoantibodies to diabetes (p=0.06). In a Cox proportional hazards analysis, faster progression was associated with an increased genetic risk score independently of HLA genotype (HR for progression from multiple autoantibodies to type 1 diabetes, 1.27, 95% CI 1.02 to 1.58 per unit increase), an earlier age of islet autoantibody development (HR, 0.68, 95% CI 0.58 to 0.81 per year increase in age) and female sex (HR, 1.94, 95% CI 1.28 to 2.93). CONCLUSIONS: Genetic risk scores may be used to identify islet autoantibody-positive children with high-risk HLA genotypes who have a slow rate of progression to subsequent stages of autoimmunity and type 1 diabetes.

Associations of Maternal Diabetes During Pregnancy with Overweight in Offspring: Results from the Prospective TEDDY Study.

OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to determine the relationship between different forms of, and potential pathways between, maternal diabetes and childhood obesity at different ages. METHODS: Prospective cohort data from The Environmental Determinants of Diabetes in the Young (TEDDY) study, which was composed of 5,324 children examined from 0.25 to 6 years of age, were analyzed. Cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses taking into account potential confounders and effect modifiers such as maternal prepregnancy BMI and birth weight z scores were performed. RESULTS: Offspring of mothers with gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) or type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) showed a higher BMI standard deviation score and increased risk for overweight and obesity at 5.5 years of age than offspring of mothers without diabetes. While these associations could be substantially explained by maternal prepregnancy BMI in offspring of mothers with GDM, significant associations disappeared after adjustment for birth weight z scores in offspring of T1DM mothers. Furthermore, overweight risk became stronger with increasing age in offspring of mothers with diabetes compared with offspring of mothers without diabetes. CONCLUSIONS: Maternal diabetes is associated with increased risk of offspring overweight, and the association appears to get stronger as children grow older. Indeed, intrauterine exposure to maternal T1DM may predispose children to later obesity through increased birth weight, while maternal BMI is more important in children exposed to GDM.

Fasting hypoglycemia is associated with disease progression in presymptomatic early stage type 1 diabetes.

OBJECTIVE: In children with presymptomatic type 1 diabetes, intermittent hyperglycemia and rising hemoglobin A1c levels are a known signal of progression toward insulin-dependency. Episodes of hypoglycemia, however, have also been reported in one published case. We investigated the prevalence of hypoglycemia and its association with disease progression in children with presymptomatic type 1 diabetes. METHODS: We compared the frequency of hypoglycemic fasting blood glucose levels (<60 mg/dL) in 48 autoantibody negative and 167 multiple ß-cell autoantibody positive children aged 2 to 5 years. We classified the autoantibody positive children into three categories based on their glucose levels in fasting state (hypoglycemic [<60 mg/dL], normoglycemic [60-99 mg/dL] or hyperglycemic [≥100 mg/dL]). We then compared the glucose levels under challenge during oral glucose tolerance tests (OGTTs) between the three categories. RESULTS: In the autoantibody positive children, 5.1% of the fasting samples were hypoglycemic, while in the autoantibody negative children no hypoglycemia was observed. Hypoglycemia occurred more often in autoantibody positive children who had already entered stage 2 or stage 3 of type 1 diabetes than in stage 1 patients (P = 0.02). Children who had hypoglycemic compared to normoglycemic fasting blood glucose values had higher 120-minute blood glucose values under OGTT challenge, and a higher rate of pathological OGTTs (P = 0.04). CONCLUSIONS: Fasting hypoglycemia seems to be an indicator of disease progression in presymptomatic type 1 diabetes and may therefore represent a novel marker for the identification of children who should be monitored more closely for progression toward insulin-dependent type 1 diabetes.

Associations of maternal type 1 diabetes with childhood adiposity and metabolic health in the offspring: a prospective cohort study.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Exposure to an intrauterine hyperglycaemic environment has been suggested to increase the offspring's later risk for being overweight or having metabolic abnormalities, but conclusive evidence for pregnancies affected by maternal type 1 diabetes is still lacking. This study aims to analyse the relationship between maternal type 1 diabetes and the offspring's metabolic health and investigate whether birthweight and/or changes in the offspring's metabolome are in the potential pathway. METHODS: We analysed data from 610 and 2169 offspring having a first-degree relative with type 1 diabetes from the TEENDIAB and BABYDIAB/BABYDIET cohorts, respectively. Anthropometric and metabolic outcomes, assessed longitudinally at 0.3-18 years of age, were compared between offspring of mothers with type 1 diabetes and offspring of non-diabetic mothers but with fathers or siblings with type 1 diabetes using mixed regression models. Non-targeted metabolomic measurements were carried out in 500 individuals from TEENDIAB and analysed with maternal type 1 diabetes and offspring overweight status. RESULTS: The offspring of mothers with type 1 diabetes had a higher BMI SD score (SDS) and an increased risk for being overweight than the offspring of non-diabetic mothers (e.g. OR for overweight status in TEENDIAB 2.40 [95% CI 1.41, 4.06]). Further, waist circumference SDS, fasting levels of glucose, insulin and C-peptide, and insulin resistance and abdominal obesity were significantly increased in the offspring of mothers with type 1 diabetes, even when adjusted for potential confounders and birthweight. Metabolite patterns related to androgenic steroids and branched-chain amino acids were found to be associated with offspring's overweight status, but no significant associations were observed between maternal type 1 diabetes and metabolite concentrations in the offspring. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Maternal type 1 diabetes is associated with offspring's overweight status and metabolic health in later life, but this is unlikely to be caused by alterations in the offspring's metabolome.

Genetic scores to stratify risk of developing multiple islet autoantibodies and type 1 diabetes: A prospective study in children.

BACKGROUND: Around 0.3% of newborns will develop autoimmunity to pancreatic beta cells in childhood and subsequently develop type 1 diabetes before adulthood. Primary prevention of type 1 diabetes will require early intervention in genetically at-risk infants. The objective of this study was to determine to what extent genetic scores (two previous genetic scores and a merged genetic score) can improve the prediction of type 1 diabetes. METHODS AND FINDINGS: The Environmental Determinants of Diabetes in the Young (TEDDY) study followed genetically at-risk children at 3- to 6-monthly intervals from birth for the development of islet autoantibodies and type 1 diabetes. Infants were enrolled between 1 September 2004 and 28 February 2010 and monitored until 31 May 2016. The risk (positive predictive value) for developing multiple islet autoantibodies (pre-symptomatic type 1 diabetes) and type 1 diabetes was determined in 4,543 children who had no first-degree relatives with type 1 diabetes and either a heterozygous HLA DR3 and DR4-DQ8 risk genotype or a homozygous DR4-DQ8 genotype, and in 3,498 of these children in whom genetic scores were calculated from 41 single nucleotide polymorphisms. In the children with the HLA risk genotypes, risk for developing multiple islet autoantibodies was 5.8% (95% CI 5.0%-6.6%) by age 6 years, and risk for diabetes by age 10 years was 3.7% (95% CI 3.0%-4.4%). Risk for developing multiple islet autoantibodies was 11.0% (95% CI 8.7%-13.3%) in children with a merged genetic score of >14.4 (upper quartile; n = 907) compared to 4.1% (95% CI 3.3%-4.9%, P < 0.001) in children with a genetic score of ≤14.4 (n = 2,591). Risk for developing diabetes by age 10 years was 7.6% (95% CI 5.3%-9.9%) in children with a merged score of >14.4 compared with 2.7% (95% CI 1.9%-3.6%) in children with a score of ≤14.4 (P < 0.001). Of 173 children with multiple islet autoantibodies by age 6 years and 107 children with diabetes by age 10 years, 82 (sensitivity, 47.4%; 95% CI 40.1%-54.8%) and 52 (sensitivity, 48.6%, 95% CI 39.3%-60.0%), respectively, had a score >14.4. Scores were higher in European versus US children (P = 0.003). In children with a merged score of >14.4, risk for multiple islet autoantibodies was similar and consistently >10% in Europe and in the US; risk was greater in males than in females (P = 0.01). Limitations of the study include that the genetic scores were originally developed from case-control studies of clinical diabetes in individuals of mainly European decent. It is, therefore, possible that it may not be suitable to all populations. CONCLUSIONS: A type 1 diabetes genetic score identified infants without family history of type 1 diabetes who had a greater than 10% risk for pre-symptomatic type 1 diabetes, and a nearly 2-fold higher risk than children identified by high-risk HLA genotypes alone. This finding extends the possibilities for enrolling children into type 1 diabetes primary prevention trials.