Orbitally forced and internal changes in West African rainfall interannual-to-decadal variability for the last 6000 years.

Recent variability in West African monsoon rainfall (WAMR) has been shown to be influenced by multiple ocean-atmosphere modes, including the El Niño Southern Oscillation, Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation. How these modes will change in response to long term forcing is less well understood. Here we use four transient simulations driven by changes in orbital forcing and greenhouse gas concentrations over the past 6000 years to examine the relationship between West African monsoon rainfall multiscale variability and changes in the modes associated with this variability. All four models show a near linear decline in monsoon rainfall over the past 6000 years in response to the gradual weakening of the interhemispheric gradient in sea surface temperatures. The only indices that show a long-term trend are those associated with the strengthening of the El Niño Southern Oscillation from the mid-Holocene onwards. At the interannual-to-decadal timescale, WAMR variability is largely influenced by Pacific-Atlantic - Mediterranean Sea teleconnections in all simulations; the exact configurations are model sensitive. The WAMR interannual-to-decadal variability depicts marked multi-centennial oscillations, with La Niña/negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation and a weakening and/or poleward shift of subtropical high-pressure systems over the Atlantic favoring wet WAMR anomalies. The WAMR interannual-to-decadal variability also depicts an overall decreasing trend throughout the Holocene that is consistent among the simulations. This decreasing trend relates to changes in the North Atlantic and Gulf of Guinea Sea Surface Temperature variability. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00382-023-07023-y.

Agreement between reconstructed and modeled boreal precipitation of the Last Interglacial.

The last extended time period when climate may have been warmer than today was during the Last Interglacial (LIG; ca. 129 to 120 thousand years ago). However, a global view of LIG precipitation is lacking. Here, seven new LIG climate models are compared to the first global database of proxies for LIG precipitation. In this way, models are assessed in their ability to capture important hydroclimatic processes during a different climate. The models can reproduce the proxy-based positive precipitation anomalies from the preindustrial period over much of the boreal continents. Over the Southern Hemisphere, proxy-model agreement is partial. In models, LIG boreal monsoons have 42% wider area than in the preindustrial and produce 55% more precipitation and 50% more extreme precipitation. Austral monsoons are weaker. The mechanisms behind these changes are consistent with stronger summer radiative forcing over boreal high latitudes and with the associated higher temperatures during the LIG.

Potential escalation of heat-related working costs with climate and socioeconomic changes in China.

Global climate change will increase the frequency of hot temperatures, impairing health and productivity for millions of working people and raising labor costs. In mainland China, high-temperature subsidies (HTSs) are allocated to employees for each working day in extremely hot environments, but the potential heat-related increase in labor cost has not been evaluated so far. Here, we estimate the potential HTS cost in current and future climates under different scenarios of socioeconomic development and radiative forcing (Representative Concentration Pathway), taking uncertainties from the climate model structure and bias correction into account. On average, the total HTS in China is estimated at 38.6 billion yuan/y (US $6.22 billion/y) over the 1979-2005 period, which is equivalent to 0.2% of the gross domestic product (GDP). Assuming that the HTS standards (per employee per hot day) remain unchanged throughout the 21st century, the total HTS may reach 250 billion yuan/y in the 2030s and 1,000 billion yuan/y in 2100. We further show that, without specific adaptation, the increased HTS cost is mainly determined by population growth until the 2030s and climate change after the mid-21st century because of increasingly frequent hot weather. Accounting for the likely possibility that HTS standards follow the wages, the share of GDP devoted to HTS could become as high as 3% at the end of 21st century.

Shortwave forcing and feedbacks in Last Glacial Maximum and Mid-Holocene PMIP3 simulations.

Simulations of the climates of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), 21 000 years ago, and of the Mid-Holocene (MH), 6000 years ago, allow an analysis of climate feedbacks in climate states that are radically different from today. The analyses of cloud and surface albedo feedbacks show that the shortwave cloud feedback is a major driver of differences between model results. Similar behaviours appear when comparing the LGM and MH simulated changes, highlighting the fingerprint of model physics. Even though the different feedbacks show similarities between the different climate periods, the fact that their relative strength differs from one climate to the other prevents a direct comparison of past and future climate sensitivity. The land-surface feedback also shows large disparities among models even though they all produce positive sea-ice and snow feedbacks. Models have very different sensitivities when considering the vegetation feedback. This feedback has a regional pattern that differs significantly between models and depends on their level of complexity and model biases. Analyses of the MH climate in two versions of the IPSL model provide further indication on the possibilities to assess the role of model biases and model physics on simulated climate changes using past climates for which observations can be used to assess the model results.

Holocene history of ENSO variance and asymmetry in the eastern tropical Pacific.

Understanding the response of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) to global warming requires quantitative data on ENSO under different climate regimes. Here, we present a reconstruction of ENSO in the eastern tropical Pacific spanning the past 10,000 years derived from oxygen isotopes in fossil mollusk shells from Peru. We found that ENSO variance was close to the modern level in the early Holocene and severely damped ~4000 to 5000 years ago. In addition, ENSO variability was skewed toward cold events along coastal Peru 6700 to 7500 years ago owing to a shift of warm anomalies toward the Central Pacific. The modern ENSO regime was established ~3000 to 4500 years ago. We conclude that ENSO was sensitive to changes in climate boundary conditions during the Holocene, including but not limited to insolation.

Irregular tropical glacier retreat over the Holocene epoch driven by progressive warming.

The causes and timing of tropical glacier fluctuations during the Holocene epoch (10,000 years ago to present) are poorly understood. Yet constraining their sensitivity to changes in climate is important, as these glaciers are both sensitive indicators of climate change and serve as water reservoirs for highland regions. Studies have so far documented extra-tropical glacier fluctuations, but in the tropics, glacier-climate relationships are insufficiently understood. Here we present a (10)Be chronology for the past 11,000 years (11 kyr), using 57 moraines from the Bolivian Telata glacier (in the Cordillera Real mountain range). This chronology indicates that Telata glacier retreated irregularly. A rapid and strong melting from the maximum extent occurred from 10.8 ± 0.9 to 8.5 ± 0.4 kyr ago, followed by a slower retreat until the Little Ice Age, about 200 years ago. A dramatic increase in the rate of retreat occurred over the twentieth century. A glacier-climate model indicates that, relative to modern climate, annual mean temperature for the Telata glacier region was -3.3 ± 0.8 °C cooler at 11 kyr ago and remained -2.1 ± 0.8 °C cooler until the end of the Little Ice Age. We suggest that long-term warming of the eastern tropical Pacific and increased atmospheric temperature in response to enhanced austral summer insolation were the main drivers for the long-term Holocene retreat of glaciers in the southern tropics.