Metabolic Dysfunction-Associated Fibrosis 5 (MAF-5) Score Predicts Liver Fibrosis Risk and Outcome in the General Population With Metabolic Dysfunction.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: There is an unmet need for noninvasive tests to improve case-finding and aid primary care professionals in referring patients at high risk of liver disease. METHODS: A metabolic dysfunction-associated fibrosis (MAF-5) score was developed and externally validated in a total of 21,797 individuals with metabolic dysfunction in population-based (National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2017-2020, National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey III, and Rotterdam Study) and hospital-based (from Antwerp and Bogota) cohorts. Fibrosis was defined as liver stiffness ≥8.0 kPa. Diagnostic accuracy was compared with FIB-4, nonalcoholic fatty liver disease fibrosis score (NFS), LiverRisk score and steatosis-associated fibrosis estimator (SAFE). MAF-5 was externally validated with liver stiffness measurement ≥8.0 kPa, with shear-wave elastography ≥7.5 kPa, and biopsy-proven steatotic liver disease according to Metavir and Nonalcoholic Steatohepatitis Clinical Research Network scores, and was tested for prognostic performance (all-cause mortality). RESULTS: The MAF-5 score comprised waist circumference, body mass index (calculated as kg / m2), diabetes, aspartate aminotransferase, and platelets. With this score, 60.9% was predicted at low, 14.1% at intermediate, and 24.9% at high risk of fibrosis. The observed prevalence was 3.3%, 7.9%, and 28.1%, respectively. The area under the receiver operator curve of MAF-5 (0.81) was significantly higher than FIB-4 (0.61), and outperformed the FIB-4 among young people (negative predictive value [NPV], 99%; area under the curve [AUC], 0.86 vs NPV, 94%; AUC, 0.51) and older adults (NPV, 94%; AUC, 0.75 vs NPV, 88%; AUC, 0.55). MAF-5 showed excellent performance to detect liver stiffness measurement ≥12 kPa (AUC, 0.86 training; AUC, 0.85 validation) and good performance in detecting liver stiffness and biopsy-proven liver fibrosis among the external validation cohorts. MAF-5 score >1 was associated with increased risk of all-cause mortality in (un)adjusted models (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.59; 95% CI, 1.47-1.73). CONCLUSIONS: The MAF-5 score is a validated, age-independent, inexpensive referral tool to identify individuals at high risk of liver fibrosis and all-cause mortality in primary care populations, using simple variables.

The Rotterdam Study. Design update and major findings between 2020 and 2024.

The Rotterdam Study is a population-based cohort study, started in 1990 in the district of Ommoord in the city of Rotterdam, the Netherlands, with the aim to describe the prevalence and incidence, unravel the etiology, and identify targets for prediction, prevention or intervention of multifactorial diseases in mid-life and elderly. The study currently includes 17,931 participants (overall response rate 65%), aged 40 years and over, who are examined in-person every 3 to 5 years in a dedicated research facility, and who are followed-up continuously through automated linkage with health care providers, both regionally and nationally. Research within the Rotterdam Study is carried out along two axes. First, research lines are oriented around diseases and clinical conditions, which are reflective of medical specializations. Second, cross-cutting research lines transverse these clinical demarcations allowing for inter- and multidisciplinary research. These research lines generally reflect subdomains within epidemiology. This paper describes recent methodological updates and main findings from each of these research lines. Also, future perspective for coming years highlighted.

The Steatosis-associated fibrosis estimator (SAFE) score: validation in the general US population.

BACKGROUND: Noninvasive tests are important in the initial risk stratification of people at risk of fibrosis. The recently developed steatosis-associated fibrosis estimator (SAFE) score may have such potential but awaits external validation. METHODS: We analyzed 6973 participants aged 18-80 in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2017-2020 cycle with data on liver stiffness and SAFE score without prevalent heart failure. Fibrosis was defined as liver stiffness ≥8.0 kPa. Accuracy was evaluated by AUC and assessment of test characteristics at the prespecified cutoffs for ruling out/ruling in fibrosis. RESULTS: The SAFE score categorized 14.7% of the population as high risk, 30.4% as intermediate risk, and 54.9% as low risk for fibrosis. The actual fibrosis prevalence in these groups was 28.0%, 10.9%, and 4.0%, respectively, translating into a positive predictive value of 0.28 at the high-risk cutoff and a negative predictive value of 0.96 at the low-risk cutoff. The AUC of the SAFE score (0.748) was significantly higher than the fibrosis-4 index (0.619) or NAFLD fibrosis score (0.718). However, test performance strongly depended on age categories: 90% of participants aged 18-40 years were considered at low risk for fibrosis, including 89/134 (66%) of clinically significant fibrosis cases. In the oldest group (60-80 y), fibrosis could only be safely ruled out among 17%, corresponding to a high referral rate of up to 83%. The best SAFE score performance was found in the middle-aged group (40-60 y). The results were consistent in target populations with metabolic dysfunction or steatosis. CONCLUSIONS: The SAFE score has overall good diagnostic accuracy in detecting fibrosis but was highly dependent on age. The SAFE score lacked sensitivity in younger populations and the ability to rule out fibrosis in older populations.

Metabolic dysfunction-associated fatty liver disease and excessive alcohol consumption are both independent risk factors for mortality.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: MAFLD often cooccurs with excessive alcohol consumption, while its prognostic value in this group remains unclear. We aimed to study the mortality risk of MAFLD in relation to excessive alcohol consumption and its potential interactions. APPROACH AND RESULTS: We analyzed persons 25-74 years old enrolled in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey III cohort with available steatosis and alcohol data. Participants with viral hepatitis, body mass index < 18.5, and missing data on age or follow-up were excluded, leaving 12,656 participants for analysis with a median follow-up of 22.9 [20.9-24.8] years. MAFLD was defined as steatosis on ultrasound in the presence of metabolic dysfunction. Daily alcohol intake of ≥10 g in females and ≥20 g in males was considered excessive alcohol consumption. We quantified mortality risk with multivariate Cox regression for MAFLD and excessive alcohol consumption. Models were adjusted for age, age squared, sex, race, marital status, education, and smoking. MAFLD was present in 31% and excessive alcohol consumption in 13% and were both independently and simultaneously associated with increased mortality risk in fully adjusted models (adjusted HR [aHR], 1.21; 95% CI, 1.13-1.30 and aHR, 1.14; 95% CI, 1.04-1.26, respectively). Similarly, MAFLD was associated with increased mortality risk in participants with and without excessive alcohol consumption. Participants with both MAFLD and excessive alcohol consumption (4.0%) expressed the highest mortality risk (aHR, 1.47; 95% CI, 1.28-1.71). Results were consistent using the initial 10 years of follow-up, a stringent definition of excessive alcohol, and propensity score weighting. CONCLUSIONS: MAFLD increases mortality risk independent of excessive alcohol consumption. This underscores the importance of MAFLD, even in patients with excessive alcohol consumption.

Hemoadsorption with CytoSorb shows a decreased observed versus expected 28-day all-cause mortality in ICU patients with septic shock: a propensity-score-weighted retrospective study.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Innovative treatment modalities have not yet shown a clinical benefit in patients with septic shock. To reduce severe cytokinaemia, CytoSorb as an add-on to continuous renal replacement therapy (CRRT) showed promising results in case reports. However, there are no clinical trials investigating outcomes. METHODS: In this investigator-initiated retrospective study, patients with septic shock were treated with CRRT + CytoSorb (n = 67) or CRRT alone (n = 49). The primary outcome was the 28-day all-cause mortality rate. Patients were weighted by stabilized inverse probability of treatment weights (sIPTW) to overcome differences in baseline characteristics. RESULTS: At the start of therapy, CytoSorb-treated patients had higher lactate levels (p < 0.001), lower mean arterial pressure (p = 0.007) and higher levels of noradrenaline (p < 0.001) compared to the CRRT group. For CytoSorb, the mean predicted mortality rate based on a SOFA of 13.8 (n = 67) was 75% (95%CI 71-79%), while the actual 28-day mortality rate was 48% (mean difference - 27%, 95%CI - 38 to - 15%, p < 0.001). For CRRT, based on a SOFA of 12.8 (n = 49), the mean predicted versus observed mortality was 68% versus 51% (mean difference - 16.9% [95%CI - 32.6 to - 1.2%, p = 0.035]). By sIPTW analysis, patients treated with CytoSorb had a significantly lower 28-day mortality rate compared to CRRT alone (53% vs. 72%, respectively, p = 0.038). Independent predictors of 28-day mortality in the CytoSorb group were the presence of pneumosepsis (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 5.47, p = 0.029), higher levels of lactate at the start of CytoSorb (aOR 1.15, p = 0.031) and older age (aOR per 10 years 1.67, p = 0.034). CONCLUSIONS: CytoSorb was associated with a decreased observed versus expected 28-day all-cause mortality. By IPTW analysis, intervention with CytoSorb may be associated with a decreased all-cause mortality at 28 days compared to CRRT alone.

Hepatitis B core-related antigen monitoring during peginterferon alfa treatment for HBeAg-negative chronic hepatitis B.

Serum Hepatitis B core-related antigen (HBcrAg) level moderately correlates with cccDNA. We examined whether HBcrAg can add value in monitoring the effect of peginterferon (PEG-IFN) therapy for HBeAg-negative chronic hepatitis B (CHB) infection. Thus, serum HBcrAg level was measured in 133 HBeAg-negative, mainly Caucasian CHB patients, treated with 48 weeks of PEG-IFN alfa-2a. We assessed its association with response (ALT normalization & HBV DNA < 2000 IU/mL) at week 72. HBcrAg level strongly correlated with HBV DNA level (r = 0.8, P < 0.001) and weakly with qHBsAg and ALT (both r = 0.2, P = 0.01). At week 48, mean HBcrAg decline was -3.3 log U/mL. Baseline levels were comparable for patients with and without response at week 72 (5.0 vs 4.9 log U/mL, P = 0.59). HBcrAg decline at week 72 differed between patients with and without response (-2.4 vs -1.0 log U/mL, P = 0.001), but no cut-off could be determined. The pattern of decline in responders resembled that of HBV DNA, but HBcrAg decline was weaker (HBcrAg -2.5 log U/mL; HBV DNA: -4.0 log IU/mL, P < 0.001). For early identification of nonresponse, diagnostic accuracy of HBV DNA and qHBsAg decline at week 12 (AUC 0.742, CI-95% [0.0.629-0.855], P < 0.001) did not improve by adding HBcrAg decline (AUC 0.747, CI-95% [0.629-0.855] P < 0.001), nor by replacing HBV DNA decline by HBcrAg decline (AUC 0.754, CI-95% [0.641-0.867], P < 0.001). In conclusion, in Caucasian patients with HBeAg-negative CHB, decline of HBcrAg during PEG-IFN treatment was stronger in patients with treatment response. However, HBcrAg was not superior to HBV DNA and qHBsAg in predicting response during PEG-IFN treatment.

Low hepatitis B surface antigen and HBV DNA levels predict response to the addition of pegylated interferon to entecavir in hepatitis B e antigen positive chronic hepatitis B.

BACKGROUND: Various treatment combinations of peginterferon (PEG-IFN) and nucleos(t)ide analogues have been evaluated for chronic hepatitis B (CHB), but the optimal regimen remains unclear. AIMS: To study whether PEG-IFN add-on increases response compared to entecavir (ETV) monotherapy, and whether the duration of ETV pretreatment influences response. METHODS: Response was evaluated in HBeAg positive patients previously treated in two randomized controlled trials. Patients received ETV pretreatment for at least 24 weeks and were then allocated to 24-48 weeks of ETV+PEG-IFN add-on, or continued ETV monotherapy. Response was defined as HBeAg loss combined with HBV DNA <200 IU/mL 48 weeks after discontinuing PEG-IFN. RESULTS: Of 234 patients, 118 were assigned PEG-IFN add-on and 116 continued ETV monotherapy. Response was observed in 38/118 (33%) patients treated with add-on therapy and in 23/116 (20%) with monotherapy (P = 0.03). The highest response to add-on therapy compared to monotherapy was observed in PEG-IFN naive patients with HBsAg levels below 4000 IU/mL and HBV DNA levels below 50 IU/mL at randomization (70% vs 34%; P = 0.01). Above the cut-off levels, response was low and not significantly different between treatment groups. Duration of ETV pretreatment was associated with HBsAg and HBV DNA levels (both P < 0.005), but not with response (P = 0.82). CONCLUSIONS: PEG-IFN add-on to ETV therapy was associated with higher response compared to ETV monotherapy in patients with HBeAg positive CHB. Response doubled in PEG-IFN naive patients with HBsAg below 4000 IU/mL and HBV DNA below 50 IU/mL, and therefore identifies them as the best candidates for PEG-IFN add-on (Identifiers: NCT00877760, NCT01532843).

Long-term follow-up of patients treated with entecavir and peginterferon add-on therapy for HBeAg-positive chronic hepatitis B infection: ARES long-term follow-up.

Addition of peginterferon alpha (PEG-IFN add-on) to entecavir (ETV) treatment after a short lead-in phase results in more response than ETV monotherapy in HBeAg-positive chronic hepatitis B infection (CHB). This study is the first to assess long-term efficacy of this treatment strategy. Patients who received ETV ± 24 weeks of PEG-IFN add-on in a global trial (ARES study) and completed follow-up were eligible to participate in this observational LTFU study if they had at least one combined HBeAg and HBV DNA measurement beyond week 96 of the ARES study. The primary endpoint was combined response (HBeAg loss and HBV DNA <200 IU/mL) at LTFU. In total, 48 patients treated with PEG-IFN add-on and 48 patients treated with ETV monotherapy were included. The median follow-up duration was 226 (IQR 51) weeks, and 86/96 (90%) patients were initial non-responders. At LTFU, combined response was present in 13 (27%) vs 11 (23%) patients (P = 0.81), and 1 log10  HBsAg decline in 59% vs 28% (P = 0.02) for PEG-IFN add-on and ETV monotherapy, respectively. In 41 initial non-responders who continued ETV therapy, combined response at LTFU was present in 9 patients (PEG-IFN add-on: 5/22 [23%]; ETV monotherapy: 4/19 [21%]). Beyond week 96 of follow-up, rates of serological response became comparable between PEG-IFN add-on and ETV monotherapy. Although in this LTFU study initial non-responders were overrepresented in the add-on arm, PEG-IFN add-on possibly leads rather to accelerated HBeAg loss than to increased long-term HBeAg loss rates.

Toronto HCC risk index: A validated scoring system to predict 10-year risk of HCC in patients with cirrhosis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Current guidelines recommend biannual surveillance for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in all patients with cirrhosis, regardless of etiology. However, HCC incidence is not well established for many causes of cirrhosis. We aimed to assess the disease-specific incidence of HCC in a large cohort of patients with cirrhosis and to develop a scoring system to predict HCC risk. METHODS: A derivation cohort of patients with cirrhosis diagnosed by biopsy or non-invasive measures was identified through retrospective chart review. The disease-specific incidence of HCC was calculated according to etiology of cirrhosis. Factors associated with HCC were identified through multivariable Cox regression and used to develop a scoring system to predict HCC risk. The scoring system was evaluated in an external cohort for validation. RESULTS: Of 2,079 patients with cirrhosis and ≥6months follow-up, 226 (10.8%) developed HCC. The 10-year cumulative incidence of HCC varied by etiologic category from 22% in patients with viral hepatitis, to 16% in those with steatohepatitis and 5% in those with autoimmune liver disease (p<0.001). By multivariable Cox regression, age, sex, etiology and platelets were associated with HCC. Points were assigned in proportion to each hazard ratio to create the Toronto HCC Risk Index (THRI). The 10-year cumulative HCC incidence was 3%, 10% and 32% in the low-risk (<120points), medium-risk (120-240) and high-risk (>240) groups respectively, values that remained consistent after internal validation. External validation was performed on a cohort of patients with primary biliary cirrhosis, hepatitis B viral and hepatitis C viral cirrhosis (n=1,144), with similar predictive ability (Harrell's c statistic 0.77) in the validation and derivation cohorts. CONCLUSION: HCC incidence varies markedly by etiology of cirrhosis. The THRI, using readily available clinical and laboratory parameters, has good predictive ability for HCC in patients with cirrhosis, and has been validated in an external cohort. This risk score may help to guide recommendations regarding HCC surveillance among patients with cirrhosis. LAY SUMMARY: HCC incidence varies markedly depending on the underlying cause of cirrhosis. Herein, using readily available clinical and laboratory parameters we describe a risk score, THRI, which has a good predictive ability for HCC in patients with cirrhosis, and has been validated in an external cohort. This risk score may help to guide recommendations regarding HCC surveillance among patients with cirrhosis.

ITPA Polymorphisms Are Associated with Hematological Side Effects during Antiviral Therapy for Chronic HCV Infection.

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVE: Genetic polymorphisms in the inosine triphosphatase (ITPA) gene have been associated with the protection from early ribavirin(RBV)-induced hemolytic anemia among patients with chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection. The aim of the present study was to investigate the association between the functional ITPA variants and hematological side effects during antiviral therapy with pegylated interferon (PegIFN) and RBV. PATIENTS AND METHODS: This cohort study included all consecutive Caucasian patients treated for chronic HCV infection with PegIFN and RBV between 2000 and 2009 for whom a serum sample was available for genetic testing. The predicted inosine triphosphate pyrophosphatase (ITPase) activity was based on the genotypes of the SNPs rs1127354 and rs7270101. Decline in hemoglobin (Hb) during antiviral therapy, as well as dose reductions, blood transfusions and use of erythropoietin were assessed. RESULTS: In total, 213 patients were included. The predicted ITPase activity was normal among 152 (71%) patients; 61 (29%) patients had ITPase deficiency. By multivariable linear regression, RBV dose in mg per kilogram (Beta 0.09, 95%CI 0.04-0.13, p<0.001) and normal ITPase activity (Beta 0.89, 95%CI 0.64-1.14, p<0.001) were associated with more Hb decline at week 4 of treatment. Patients with normal ITPase activity underwent more dose adjustments of RBV than patients with ITPase deficiency (19(13%) vs 1(2%),p = 0.014) and received erythropoietin more frequently (12 (8%) vs 0 (0%),p = 0.024). CONCLUSION: Genetic variants in the ITPA gene protected against RBV treatment-induced anemia among Caucasian patients with chronic HCV infection. Patients with normal ITPase activity underwent more dose reductions of RBV and received erythropoietin more frequently.

Real life adherence of chronic hepatitis B patients to entecavir treatment.

BACKGROUND: Real-life prospective data on adherence to nucleos(t)ide analogues in chronic hepatitis B patients are scarce. AIMS: We investigated adherence to entecavir in relation to virological response. METHODS: In this prospective study, we provided 100 consecutive chronic hepatitis B patients with a medication dispenser that monitored entecavir intake during 16 weeks therapy. Hepatitis B virus (HBV) DNA was measured at baseline and after 16 weeks. Beliefs about medicines were evaluated using a questionnaire. RESULTS: Adherence over 16 weeks averaged 85 ± 17%, with 70% of patients exhibiting good (i.e. ≥ 80%) adherence. Patients with poor (i.e. <80%) adherence were significantly younger (p=0.01), with more often indifferent attitudes towards entecavir (p=0.03) Viral breakthrough did not occur during the study. Adherence in patients with HBV DNA after 16 weeks > 20 IU/mL (n=18) and ≤ 20 IU/mL (n=81) averaged 83% and 91% respectively (p=0.19). In multivariate analysis, adherence was not a significant predictor of HBV DNA negativity (adjusted OR 1.02; p=0.34), after adjustment for duration of entecavir treatment (p<0.001) and HBe-status (p=0.001). CONCLUSIONS: 70% of chronic hepatitis B patients exhibited good adherence to entecavir, with younger age and an indifferent attitude being risk factors for poor adherence. Poor adherence was not an independent predictor of virological response.

Adding pegylated interferon to entecavir for hepatitis B e antigen-positive chronic hepatitis B: A multicenter randomized trial (ARES study).

UNLABELLED: Entecavir (ETV) is a potent inhibitor of hepatitis B viral replication, but long-term therapy may be required. We investigated whether adding on pegylated interferon (Peg-IFN) to ETV therapy enhances serological response rates. In this global investigator-initiated, open-label, multicenter, randomized trial, hepatitis B e antigen (HBeAg)-positive chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients with compensated liver disease started on ETV monotherapy (0.5 mg/day) and were randomized in a 1:1 ratio to either Peg-IFN add-on therapy (180 µg/week) from week 24 to 48 (n = 85) or to continue ETV monotherapy (n = 90). Response was defined as HBeAg loss with HBV DNA <200 IU/mL at week 48. Responders discontinued ETV at week 72. All patients were followed until week 96. Response was achieved in 16 of 85 (19%) patients allocated to the add-on arm versus 9 of 90 (10%) in the monotherapy arm (P = 0.095). Adjusted for HBV DNA levels before randomized therapy, Peg-IFN add-on was significantly associated with response (odds ratio: 4.8; 95% confidence interval: 1.6-14.0; P = 0.004). Eleven (13%) of the add-on-treated patients achieved disease remission after ETV cessation versus 2 of 90 (2%) of those treated with monotherapy (P = 0.007), which was 79% (11 of 14) versus 25% (2 of 8) of those who discontinued ETV (P = 0.014). At week 96, 22 (26%) patients assigned add-on versus 12 (13%) assigned monotherapy achieved HBeAg seroconversion (P = 0.036). Peg-IFN add-on led to significantly more decline in hepatitis B surface antigen, HBeAg, and HBV DNA (all P < 0.001). Combination therapy was well tolerated. CONCLUSION: Although the primary endpoint was not reached, 24 weeks of Peg-IFN add-on therapy led to a higher proportion of HBeAg response, compared to ETV monotherapy. Add-on therapy resulted in more viral decline and appeared to prevent relapse after stopping ETV. Hence, Peg-IFN add-on therapy may facilitate the discontinuation of nucleos(t)ide analogs.