Effect of risk status for severe COVID-19 on individual contact behaviour during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in 2020/2021-an analysis based on the German COVIMOD study.

BACKGROUND: One of the primary aims of contact restriction measures during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has been to protect people at increased risk of severe disease from the virus. Knowledge about the uptake of contact restriction measures in this group is critical for public health decision-making. We analysed data from the German contact survey COVIMOD to assess differences in contact patterns based on risk status, and compared this to pre-pandemic data to establish whether there was a differential response to contact reduction measures. METHODS: We quantified differences in contact patterns according to risk status by fitting a generalised linear model accounting for within-participant clustering to contact data from 31 COVIMOD survey waves (April 2020-December 2021), and estimated the population-averaged ratio of mean contacts of persons with high risk for a severe COVID-19 outcome due to age or underlying health conditions, to those without. We then compared the results to pre-pandemic data from the contact surveys HaBIDS and POLYMOD. RESULTS: Averaged across all analysed waves, COVIMOD participants reported a mean of 3.21 (95% confidence interval (95%CI) 3.14,3.28) daily contacts (truncated at 100), compared to 18.10 (95%CI 17.12,19.06) in POLYMOD and 28.27 (95%CI 26.49,30.15) in HaBIDS. After adjusting for confounders, COVIMOD participants aged 65 or above had 0.83 times (95%CI 0.79,0.87) the number of contacts as younger age groups. In POLYMOD, this ratio was 0.36 (95%CI 0.30,0.43). There was no clear difference in contact patterns due to increased risk from underlying health conditions in either HaBIDS or COVIMOD. We also found that persons in COVIMOD at high risk due to old age increased their non-household contacts less than those not at such risk after strict restriction measures were lifted. CONCLUSIONS: Over the course of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, there was a general reduction in contact numbers in the German population and also a differential response to contact restriction measures based on risk status for severe COVID-19. This differential response needs to be taken into account for parametrisations of mathematical models in a pandemic setting.

Real-time use of artificial intelligence (CADEYE) in colorectal cancer surveillance of patients with Lynch syndrome-A randomized controlled pilot trial (CADLY).

BACKGROUND: Lynch syndrome (LS), an autosomal dominant disorder caused by pathogenic germline variants in DNA mismatch repair (MMR) genes, represents the most common hereditary colorectal cancer (CRC) syndrome. Lynch syndrome patients are at high risk of CRC despite regular endoscopic surveillance. OBJECTIVE: Our aim was to investigate the diagnostic performance of artificial intelligence (AI)-assisted colonoscopy in comparison to High-Definition white-light endoscopy (HD-WLE) for the first time. METHODS: Patients ≥18 years with LS, with a pathogenic germline variant (MLH1, MHS2, MSH6), and at least one previous colonoscopy (interval 10-36 months) were eligible. Patients were stratified by previous CRC and affected MMR gene with a 1:1 allocation ratio (AI-assisted vs. HD white-light endoscopy) in this exploratory pilot trial. RESULTS: Between Dec-2021 and Dec-2022, 101 LS patients were randomised and 96 patients were finally analyzed after exclusion of 5 patients due to insufficient bowel preparation. In the HD-WLE arm, adenomas were detected in 12/46 patients compared to 18/50 in the AI arm (26.1% [95% CI 14.3-41.1] vs. 36.0% [22.9-50.8]; p = 0.379). The use of AI-assisted colonoscopy especially increased detection of flat adenomas (Paris classification 0-IIb) (examinations with detected flat adenomas: 3/46 [6.5%] vs. 10/50 [20%]; p = 0.07; numbers of detected flat adenomas: 4/20 vs. 17/30, p = 0.018). The median withdrawal time did not differ significantly between HD-WLE and AI (14 vs. 15 min; p = 0.170). CONCLUSION: We here present first data suggesting that real-time AI-assisted colonoscopy is a promising approach to optimize endoscopic surveillance in LS patients, in particular to improve the detection of flat adenomas.

Adenoma and colorectal cancer risks in Lynch syndrome, Lynch-like syndrome and familial colorectal cancer type X.

Lynch syndrome (LS), Lynch-like syndrome (LLS) and familial colorectal cancer type X (FCCX) are different entities of familial cancer predisposition leading to an increased risk of colorectal cancer (CRC). The aim of this prospective study was to characterise and to compare the risks for adenoma and CRC in these three risk groups. Data was taken from the registry of the German Consortium for Familial Intestinal Cancer. Patients were prospectively followed up in an intensified colonoscopic surveillance programme that included annual examinations. Cumulative risks for adenoma and CRC were calculated separately for LS, LLS and FCCX, and then for males and females. Multivariate Cox regression was used to analyse the independent contributions of risk group, mismatch repair gene (within LS), sex and previous adenoma. The study population comprised 1448 individuals (103 FCCX, 481 LLS and 864 LS). The risks were similar for colorectal adenomas, but different for first and metachronous CRC between the three risk groups. CRC risk was highest in LS, followed by LLS and lowest in FCCX. Male sex and a prevalent adenoma in the index colonoscopy were associated with a higher risk for incident adenoma and CRC. In patients with LS, CRC risks were particularly higher in female MSH2 than MLH1 carriers. Our study may support the development of risk-adapted surveillance policies in LS, LLS and FCCX.

[HerediCaRe: Documentation and IT Solution of a Specialized Registry for Hereditary Breast and Ovarian Cancer]. / HerediCaRe: Dokumentations- und IT-Lösung eines spezialisierten Registers für erblichen Brust- und Eierstockkrebs.

The national registry "HerediCaRe" for the evaluation and improvement of risk-adjusted prevention in hereditary breast and ovarian cancer is one of six "model registries in health services research" funded by the BMBF. In this paper, we describe and discuss the documentation and IT solution chosen for standardized data collection based on the specific functional requirements previously defined. The documentation is divided into different modules to be used individually for each patient, which are based on a previously defined catalog of documentation items. Due to special functional requirements, a specific data entry application based on ORACLE and ORACLE Forms was developed and implemented. The specific requirements included the integration of graphical pedigree representations, the structured upload of pedigree data and molecular genetic information, the automated transfer of old data from the previous system, as well as the free programmability of complex database queries for central data quality control. A database for patient-independent management of genetic risk variants was seamlessly integrated into the application and linked to the patient-related data. The advantages and disadvantages of the chosen IT solution are critically discussed. Overall, we come to the conclusion that, in view of the complex documentation and the special functional requirements, there are no alternative ready-made software products to the in-house development we have chosen.

Early detection of duodenal cancer by upper gastrointestinal-endoscopy in Lynch syndrome.

Small bowel cancer (SBC) is the malignancy with the highest standardized incidence ratio in Lynch syndrome (LS) patients. Of all SBCs, about 50% are duodenal cancers (DCs), therefore being accessible by esophago-gastro-duodenoscopy (EGD) for surveillance. We asked whether early detection of DC is possible for LS patients undergoing surveillance by EGD and if surveillance should be limited to specific subgroups. Data for LS patients with DC were retrieved from the registry of the German Consortium for Familial Intestinal Cancer. Patients undergoing active surveillance by EGDs (surveillance group) were compared to those who did not (nonsurveillance group) regarding tumor stage at diagnosis. Union for International Cancer Control stages I-IIA were defined as early stage disease and IIB-IV as advanced stage disease. Statistical analysis was performed using Fisher's exact test. Among 2015 patients with pathogenic variants in any mismatch-repair-gene, 47 patients with 49 DCs were identified. In 10% of cases, patients were under 35 years at diagnosis; family and personal tumor history did not correlate with DC diagnosis. Pathogenic germline variants in MSH6, PMS2 or EPCAM were present in 10% of patients. Statistical analysis could be performed on 13 DC patients in the surveillance group and 14 in the nonsurveillance group. Early detection was possible for 71% of patients in the surveillance group and 29% of patients in the nonsurveillance group (P = .021). Early detection of DC by EGD in LS patients is feasible regardless of family history, mutational status and should start no later than 25 years of age.

Monocyte subtype counts are associated with 10-year cardiovascular disease risk as determined by the Framingham Risk Score among subjects of the LIFE-Adult study.

Coronary heart disease, an inflammatory disease, is the leading cause of death globally. White blood cell counts (including monocytes) are easily available biomarkers of systemic inflammation. Monocyte subtypes can be measured by flow cytometry and classified into classical (CD14high, CD16neg), intermediate (CD14high, CD16+) and non-classical (CD14+, CD16high) with distinct functional properties. The goal of this study was to investigate the association of monocyte total count and its subtypes with cardiovascular risk groups defined by the Framingham Risk Score, which is used to estimate the 10-year risk of developing myocardial infarction or predict mortality following coronary heart disease. We also aimed to investigate whether monocyte counts are associated with relevant cardiovascular risk factors not included in the Framingham Risk Score, such as carotid atherosclerotic plaque and intima-media thickness. Our data came from the LIFE-Adult study, a population-based cohort study of 10,000 randomly selected participants in Leipzig, Germany. Data was gathered using self-administered questionnaires and physical examinations. Carotid plaques and intima-media thickness were measured using carotid artery sonography. Monocyte subtypes in blood were determined by 10-color flow cytometry for a total of 690 individuals. In a multivariate regression analysis adjusting for the risk factors BMI, intima-media thickness, presence of carotid plaques and diabetes mellitus, monocyte subtypes and total count were found to be significantly associated with the dichotomized Framingham Risk Score (≥10% versus <10%): Odds ratios [95% confidence interval] for monocyte subtypes: classical: 11.19 [3.79-34.26]; intermediate: 2.27 [1.11-4.71]; non-classical: 4.18 [1.75-10.20]; total: 14.59 [4.61-47.95]. In absence of prospective data, the FRS was used as a surrogate for CHD. Our results indicate that monocyte counts could provide useful predictive value for cardiovascular disease risk.

Value of upper gastrointestinal endoscopy for gastric cancer surveillance in patients with Lynch syndrome.

In our study, we evaluated the effectiveness of upper gastrointestinal (GI) endoscopy as an instrument for early gastric cancer (GC) detection in Lynch syndrome (LS) patients by analyzing data from the registry of the German Consortium for Familial Intestinal Cancer. In a prospective, multicenter cohort study, 1128 out of 2009 registered individuals with confirmed LS underwent 5176 upper GI endoscopies. Compliance was good since 77.6% of upper GI endoscopies were completed within the recommended interval of 1 to 3 years. Forty-nine GC events were observed in 47 patients. MLH1 (n = 21) and MSH2 (n = 24) mutations were the most prevalent. GCs in patients undergoing regular surveillance were diagnosed significantly more often in an early-stage disease (UICC I) than GCs detected through symptoms (83% vs 25%; P = .0231). Thirty-two (68%) patients had a negative family history of GC. The median age at diagnosis was 51 years (range 28-66). Of all GC patients, 13 were diagnosed at an age younger than 45. Our study supports the recommendation of regular upper GI endoscopy surveillance for LS patients beginning no later than at the age of 30.

Cancer risks in Lynch syndrome, Lynch-like syndrome, and familial colorectal cancer type X: a prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Individuals with pathogenic germline variants in DNA mismatch repair (MMR) genes are at increased risk of developing colorectal, endometrial and other cancers (Lynch syndrome, LS). While previous studies have extensively described cancer risks in LS, cancer risks in individuals from families without detectable MMR gene defects despite MMR deficiency (Lynch-like syndrome, LLS), and in individuals from families fulfilling the Amsterdam-II criteria without any signs of MMR deficiency (familial colorectal cancer type X, FCCX) are less well studied. The aim of this prospective study was to characterise the risk for different cancer types in LS, LLS, and FCCX, and to compare these with the cancer risks in the general population. METHODS: Data was taken from the registry of the German Consortium for Familial Intestinal Cancer, where individuals were followed up prospectively within the framework of an intensified surveillance programme at recommended annual examination intervals. A total of 1120 LS, 594 LLS, and 116 FCCX individuals were analysed. From this total sample, eight different cohorts were defined, in which age-dependent cumulative risks and standardised incidence ratios were calculated regarding the first incident occurrence of any, colorectal, stomach, small bowel, urothelial, female breast, ovarian, and endometrial cancer, separately for LS, LLS, and FCCX. RESULTS: The number of individuals at risk for first incident cancer ranged from 322 to 1102 in LS, 120 to 586 in LLS, and 40 to 116 in FCCX, depending on the cancer type of interest. For most cancer types, higher risks were observed in LS compared to LLS, FCCX, and the general population. Risks for any, colorectal, stomach, urothelial, and endometrial cancer were significantly higher in LLS compared to the general population. No significantly increased risks could be detected in FCCX compared to LLS patients, and the general population. Colorectal and endometrial cancer risks tended to be higher in LLS than in FCCX. CONCLUSIONS: The characterisation of cancer risks in patients with LLS and FCCX is important to develop appropriate surveillance programmes for these specific intermediate risk groups. Larger prospective studies are needed to obtain more precise risk estimates.

Associations of Pathogenic Variants in MLH1, MSH2, and MSH6 With Risk of Colorectal Adenomas and Tumors and With Somatic Mutations in Patients With Lynch Syndrome.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Lynch syndrome is caused by variants in DNA mismatch repair (MMR) genes and associated with an increased risk of colorectal cancer (CRC). In patients with Lynch syndrome, CRCs can develop via different pathways. We studied associations between Lynch syndrome-associated variants in MMR genes and risks of adenoma and CRC and somatic mutations in APC and CTNNB1 in tumors in an international cohort of patients. METHODS: We combined clinical and molecular data from 3 studies. We obtained clinical data from 2747 patients with Lynch syndrome associated with variants in MLH1, MSH2, or MSH6 from Germany, the Netherlands, and Finland who received at least 2 surveillance colonoscopies and were followed for a median time of 7.8 years for development of adenomas or CRC. We performed DNA sequence analyses of 48 colorectal tumors (from 16 patients with mutations in MLH1, 29 patients with mutations in MSH2, and 3 with mutations in MSH6) for somatic mutations in APC and CTNNB1. RESULTS: Risk of advanced adenoma in 10 years was 17.8% in patients with pathogenic variants in MSH2 vs 7.7% in MLH1 (P < .001). Higher proportions of patients with pathogenic variants in MLH1 or MSH2 developed CRC in 10 years (11.3% and 11.4%) than patients with pathogenic variants in MSH6 (4.7%) (P = .001 and P = .003 for MLH1 and MSH2 vs MSH6, respectively). Somatic mutations in APC were found in 75% of tumors from patients with pathogenic variants in MSH2 vs 11% in MLH1 (P = .015). Somatic mutations in CTNNB1 were found in 50% of tumors from patients with pathogenic variants in MLH1 vs 7% in MSH2 (P = .002). None of the 3 tumors with pathogenic variants in MSH6 had a mutation in CTNNB1, but all had mutations in APC. CONCLUSIONS: In an analysis of clinical and DNA sequence data from patients with Lynch syndrome from 3 countries, we associated pathogenic variants in MMR genes with risk of adenoma and CRC, and somatic mutations in APC and CTNNB1 in colorectal tumors. If these findings are confirmed, surveillance guidelines might be adjusted based on MMR gene variants.

Breast cancer risk in BRCA1/2 mutation carriers and noncarriers under prospective intensified surveillance.

Comparably little is known about breast cancer (BC) risks in women from families tested negative for BRCA1/2 mutations despite an indicative family history, as opposed to BRCA1/2 mutation carriers. We determined the age-dependent risks of first and contralateral breast cancer (FBC, CBC) both in noncarriers and carriers of BRCA1/2 mutations, who participated in an intensified breast imaging surveillance program. The study was conducted between January 1, 2005, and September 30, 2017, at 12 university centers of the German Consortium for Hereditary Breast and Ovarian Cancer. Two cohorts were prospectively followed up for incident FBC (n = 4,380; 16,398 person-years [PY], median baseline age: 39 years) and CBC (n = 2,993; 10,090 PY, median baseline age: 42 years). Cumulative FBC risk at age 60 was 61.8% (95% CI 52.8-70.9%) for BRCA1 mutation carriers, 43.2% (95% CI 32.1-56.3%) for BRCA2 mutation carriers and 15.7% (95% CI 11.9-20.4%) for noncarriers. FBC risks were significantly higher than in the general population, with incidence rate ratios of 23.9 (95% CI 18.9-29.8) for BRCA1 mutation carriers, 13.5 (95% CI 9.2-19.1) for BRCA2 mutation carriers and 4.9 (95% CI 3.8-6.3) for BRCA1/2 noncarriers. Cumulative CBC risk 10 years after FBC was 25.1% (95% CI 19.6-31.9%) for BRCA1 mutation carriers, 6.6% (95% CI 3.4-12.5%) for BRCA2 mutation carriers and 3.6% (95% CI 2.2-5.7%) for noncarriers. CBC risk in noncarriers was similar to women with unilateral BC from the general population. Further studies are needed to confirm whether less intensified surveillance is justified in women from BRCA1/2 negative families with elevated risk.

Large scale multifactorial likelihood quantitative analysis of BRCA1 and BRCA2 variants: An ENIGMA resource to support clinical variant classification.

The multifactorial likelihood analysis method has demonstrated utility for quantitative assessment of variant pathogenicity for multiple cancer syndrome genes. Independent data types currently incorporated in the model for assessing BRCA1 and BRCA2 variants include clinically calibrated prior probability of pathogenicity based on variant location and bioinformatic prediction of variant effect, co-segregation, family cancer history profile, co-occurrence with a pathogenic variant in the same gene, breast tumor pathology, and case-control information. Research and clinical data for multifactorial likelihood analysis were collated for 1,395 BRCA1/2 predominantly intronic and missense variants, enabling classification based on posterior probability of pathogenicity for 734 variants: 447 variants were classified as (likely) benign, and 94 as (likely) pathogenic; and 248 classifications were new or considerably altered relative to ClinVar submissions. Classifications were compared with information not yet included in the likelihood model, and evidence strengths aligned to those recommended for ACMG/AMP classification codes. Altered mRNA splicing or function relative to known nonpathogenic variant controls were moderately to strongly predictive of variant pathogenicity. Variant absence in population datasets provided supporting evidence for variant pathogenicity. These findings have direct relevance for BRCA1 and BRCA2 variant evaluation, and justify the need for gene-specific calibration of evidence types used for variant classification.

No Difference in Colorectal Cancer Incidence or Stage at Detection by Colonoscopy Among 3 Countries With Different Lynch Syndrome Surveillance Policies.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Patients with Lynch syndrome are at high risk for developing colorectal cancer (CRC). Regular colonoscopic surveillance is recommended, but there is no international consensus on the appropriate interval. We investigated whether shorter intervals are associated with lower CRC incidence and detection at earlier stages by comparing the surveillance policies in Germany, which evaluates patients by colonoscopy annually, in the Netherlands (patients evaluated at 1-2-year intervals), and Finland (patients evaluated at 2-3-year intervals). METHODS: We collected data from 16,327 colonoscopic examinations (conducted from 1984 through 2015) of 2747 patients with Lynch syndrome (pathogenic variants in the MLH1, MSH2, or MSH6 genes) from the German HNPCC Consortium, the Dutch Lynch Syndrome Registry, and the Finnish Lynch Syndrome Registry. Our analysis included 23,309 person-years of cumulative observation time. Time from the index colonoscopy to incident CRC or adenoma was analyzed using the Kaplan-Meier method; groups were compared using the log-rank test. We performed multivariable Cox regression analyses to identify factors associated with CRC risk (diagnosis of CRC before the index colonoscopy, sex, mutation, age, and presence of adenoma at the index colonoscopy). RESULTS: The 10-year cumulative CRC incidence ranged from 4.1% to 18.4% in patients with low- and high-risk profiles, respectively, and varied with age, sex, mutation, and prior detection of CRC or adenoma. Observed colonoscopy intervals were largely in accordance with the country-specific recommendations. We found no significant differences in cumulative CRC incidence or CRC stage at detection among countries. There was no significant association between CRC stage and time since last colonoscopy. CONCLUSIONS: We did not find a significant reduction in CRC incidence or stage of detection in Germany (annual colonoscopic surveillance) than in countries with longer surveillance intervals (the Netherlands, with 1-2-year intervals, and Finland, with 2-3-year intervals). Overall, we did not find a significant association of the interval with CRC risk, although age, sex, mutation, and prior neoplasia were used to individually modify colonoscopy intervals. Studies are needed to develop and validate risk-adapted surveillance strategies and to identify patients who benefit from shorter surveillance intervals.