Coronary Atherosclerotic Plaque Activity and Risk of Myocardial Infarction.

BACKGROUND: Total coronary atherosclerotic plaque activity across the entire coronary arterial tree is associated with patient-level clinical outcomes. OBJECTIVES: We aimed to investigate whether vessel-level coronary atherosclerotic plaque activity is associated with vessel-level myocardial infarction. METHODS: In this secondary analysis of an international multicenter study of patients with recent myocardial infarction and multivessel coronary artery disease, we assessed vessel-level coronary atherosclerotic plaque activity using coronary 18F-sodium fluoride positron emission tomography to identify vessel-level myocardial infarction. RESULTS: Increased 18F-sodium fluoride uptake was found in 679 of 2,094 coronary arteries and 414 of 691 patients. Myocardial infarction occurred in 24 (4%) vessels with increased coronary atherosclerotic plaque activity and in 25 (2%) vessels without increased coronary atherosclerotic plaque activity (HR: 2.08; 95% CI: 1.16-3.72; P = 0.013). This association was not demonstrable in those treated with coronary revascularization (HR: 1.02; 95% CI: 0.47-2.25) but was notable in untreated vessels (HR: 3.86; 95% CI: 1.63-9.10; Pinteraction = 0.024). Increased coronary atherosclerotic plaque activity in multiple coronary arteries was associated with heightened patient-level risk of cardiac death or myocardial infarction (HR: 2.43; 95% CI: 1.37-4.30; P = 0.002) as well as first (HR: 2.19; 95% CI: 1.18-4.06; P = 0.013) and total (HR: 2.50; 95% CI: 1.42-4.39; P = 0.002) myocardial infarctions. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with recent myocardial infarction and multivessel coronary artery disease, coronary atherosclerotic plaque activity prognosticates individual coronary arteries and patients at risk for myocardial infarction.

Application of the Universal Definition of Myocardial Infarction in Clinical Practice in Scotland and Sweden.

Importance: Whether the diagnostic classifications proposed by the universal definition of myocardial infarction (MI) to identify type 1 MI due to atherothrombosis and type 2 MI due to myocardial oxygen supply-demand imbalance have been applied consistently in clinical practice is unknown. Objective: To evaluate the application of the universal definition of MI in consecutive patients with possible MI across 2 health care systems. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study used data from 2 prospective cohorts enrolling consecutive patients with possible MI in Scotland (2013-2016) and Sweden (2011-2014) to assess accuracy of clinical diagnosis of MI recorded in hospital records for patients with an adjudicated diagnosis of type 1 or type 2 MI. Data were analyzed from August 2022 to February 2023. Main Outcomes and Measures: The main outcome was the proportion of patients with a clinical diagnosis of MI recorded in the hospital records who had type 1 or type 2 MI, adjudicated by an independent panel according to the universal definition. Characteristics and risk of subsequent MI or cardiovascular death at 1 year were compared. Results: A total of 50 356 patients were assessed. The cohort from Scotland included 28 783 (15 562 men [54%]; mean [SD] age, 60 [17] years), and the cohort from Sweden included 21 573 (11 110 men [51%]; mean [SD] age, 56 [17] years) patients. In Scotland, a clinical diagnosis of MI was recorded in 2506 of 3187 patients with an adjudicated diagnosis of type 1 MI (79%) and 122 of 716 patients with an adjudicated diagnosis of type 2 MI (17%). Similar findings were observed in Sweden, with 970 of 1111 patients with adjudicated diagnosis of type 1 MI (87%) and 57 of 251 patients with adjudicated diagnosis of type 2 MI (23%) receiving a clinical diagnosis of MI. Patients with an adjudicated diagnosis of type 1 MI without a clinical diagnosis were more likely to be women (eg, 336 women [49%] vs 909 women [36%] in Scotland; P < .001) and older (mean [SD] age, 71 [14] v 67 [14] years in Scotland, P < .001) and, when adjusting for competing risk from noncardiovascular death, were at similar or increased risk of subsequent MI or cardiovascular death compared with patients with a clinical diagnosis of MI (eg, 29% vs 18% in Scotland; P < .001). Conclusions and Relevance: In this cohort study, the universal definition of MI was not consistently applied in clinical practice, with a minority of patients with type 2 MI identified, and type 1 MI underrecognized in women and older persons, suggesting uncertainty remains regarding the diagnostic criteria or value of the classification.

Machine Learning for Myocardial Infarction Compared With Guideline-Recommended Diagnostic Pathways.

BACKGROUND: Collaboration for the Diagnosis and Evaluation of Acute Coronary Syndrome (CoDE-ACS) is a validated clinical decision support tool that uses machine learning with or without serial cardiac troponin measurements at a flexible time point to calculate the probability of myocardial infarction (MI). How CoDE-ACS performs at different time points for serial measurement and compares with guideline-recommended diagnostic pathways that rely on fixed thresholds and time points is uncertain. METHODS: Patients with possible MI without ST-segment-elevation were enrolled at 12 sites in 5 countries and underwent serial high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I concentration measurement at 0, 1, and 2 hours. Diagnostic performance of the CoDE-ACS model at each time point was determined for index type 1 MI and the effectiveness of previously validated low- and high-probability scores compared with guideline-recommended European Society of Cardiology (ESC) 0/1-hour, ESC 0/2-hour, and High-STEACS (High-Sensitivity Troponin in the Evaluation of Patients With Suspected Acute Coronary Syndrome) pathways. RESULTS: In total, 4105 patients (mean age, 61 years [interquartile range, 50-74]; 32% women) were included, among whom 575 (14%) had type 1 MI. At presentation, CoDE-ACS identified 56% of patients as low probability, with a negative predictive value and sensitivity of 99.7% (95% CI, 99.5%-99.9%) and 99.0% (98.6%-99.2%), ruling out more patients than the ESC 0-hour and High-STEACS (25% and 35%) pathways. Incorporating a second cardiac troponin measurement, CoDE-ACS identified 65% or 68% of patients as low probability at 1 or 2 hours, for an identical negative predictive value of 99.7% (99.5%-99.9%); 19% or 18% as high probability, with a positive predictive value of 64.9% (63.5%-66.4%) and 68.8% (67.3%-70.1%); and 16% or 14% as intermediate probability. In comparison, after serial measurements, the ESC 0/1-hour, ESC 0/2-hour, and High-STEACS pathways identified 49%, 53%, and 71% of patients as low risk, with a negative predictive value of 100% (99.9%-100%), 100% (99.9%-100%), and 99.7% (99.5%-99.8%); and 20%, 19%, or 29% as high risk, with a positive predictive value of 61.5% (60.0%-63.0%), 65.8% (64.3%-67.2%), and 48.3% (46.8%-49.8%), resulting in 31%, 28%, or 0%, who require further observation in the emergency department, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: CoDE-ACS performs consistently irrespective of the timing of serial cardiac troponin measurement, identifying more patients as low probability with comparable performance to guideline-recommended pathways for MI. Whether care guided by probabilities can improve the early diagnosis of MI requires prospective evaluation. REGISTRATION: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov; Unique identifier: NCT00470587.

Implementation of a high sensitivity cardiac troponin I assay and risk of myocardial infarction or death at five years: observational analysis of a stepped wedge, cluster randomised controlled trial.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the impact of implementing a high sensitivity assay for cardiac troponin I on long term outcomes in patients with suspected acute coronary syndrome. DESIGN: Secondary observational analysis of a stepped wedge, cluster randomised controlled trial. SETTING: 10 secondary and tertiary care centres in Scotland, UK. PARTICIPANTS: 48 282 consecutive patients with suspected acute coronary syndrome. Myocardial injury was defined as any high sensitivity assay result for cardiac troponin I >99th centile of 16 ng/L in women and 34 ng/L in men. INTERVENTION: Hospital sites were randomly allocated to either early (n=5 hospitals) or late (n=5 hospitals) implementation of a high sensitivity cardiac troponin I assay with sex specific diagnostic thresholds. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: The main outcome was myocardial infarction or death at five years. RESULTS: 10 360 patients had cardiac troponin concentrations greater than the 99th centile, of whom 1771 (17.1%) were reclassified by the high sensitivity assay. The five year incidence of subsequent myocardial infarction or death before and after implementation of the high sensitivity assay was 29.4% (5588/18 978) v 25.9% (7591/29 304), respectively, in all patients (adjusted hazard ratio 0.97, 95% confidence interval 0.93 to 1.01), and 63.0% (456/720) v 53.9% (567/1051), respectively, in those reclassified by the high sensitivity assay (0.82, 0.72 to 0.94). After implementation of the high sensitivity assay, a reduction in subsequent myocardial infarction or death was observed in patients with non-ischaemic myocardial injury (0.83, 0.75 to 0.91) but not in those with type 1 or type 2 myocardial infarction (0.92, 0.83 to 1.01 and 0.98, 0.84 to 1.14). CONCLUSIONS: Implementation of a high sensitivity cardiac troponin I assay in the assessment of patients with suspected acute coronary syndrome was associated with a reduced risk of subsequent myocardial infarction or death at five years in those reclassified by the high sensitivity assay. Improvements in outcome were greatest in patients with non-ischaemic myocardial injury, suggesting a broader benefit beyond the identification of myocardial infarction. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01852123.

Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation (SIMD) indicators as predictors of mortality among patients hospitalised with COVID-19 disease in the Lothian Region, Scotland during the first wave: a cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Sars-CoV-2, the causative agent of COVID-19, has led to more than 226,000 deaths in the UK and multiple risk factors for mortality including age, sex and deprivation have been identified. This study aimed to identify which individual indicators of the Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation (SIMD), an area-based deprivation index, were predictive of mortality. METHODS: This was a prospective cohort study of anonymised electronic health records of 710 consecutive patients hospitalised with Covid-19 disease between March and June 2020 in the Lothian Region of Southeast Scotland. Data sources included automatically extracted data from national electronic platforms and manually extracted data from individual admission records. Exposure variables of interest were SIMD quintiles and 12 indicators of deprivation deemed clinically relevant selected from the SIMD. Our primary outcome was mortality. Age and sex adjusted univariable and multivariable analyses were used to determine measures of association between exposures of interest and the primary outcome. RESULTS: After adjusting for age and sex, we found an increased risk of mortality in the more deprived SIMD quintiles 1 and 3 (OR 1.75, CI 0.99-3.08, p = 0.053 and OR 2.17, CI 1.22-3.86, p = 0.009, respectively), but this association was not upheld in our multivariable model containing age, sex, Performance Status and clinical parameters of severity at admission. Of the 12 pre-selected indicators of deprivation, two were associated with greater mortality in our multivariable analysis: income deprivation rate categorised by quartile (Q4 (most deprived): 2.11 (1.20-3.77) p = 0.011)) and greater than expected hospitalisations due to alcohol per SIMD data zone (1.96 (1.28-3.00) p = 0.002)). CONCLUSIONS: SIMD as an aggregate measure of deprivation was not predictive of mortality in our cohort when other exposure measures were accounted for. However, we identified a two-fold increased risk of mortality in patients residing in areas with greater income-deprivation and/or number of hospitalisations due to alcohol. In areas where aggregate measures fail to capture pockets of deprivation, exploring the impact of specific SIMD indicators may be helpful in targeting resources to residents at risk of poorer outcomes from Covid-19.

Early computed tomography coronary angiography and preventative treatment in patients with suspected acute coronary syndrome: A secondary analysis of the RAPID-CTCA trial.

BACKGROUND: Computed tomography coronary angiography (CTCA) offers detailed assessment of the presence of coronary atherosclerosis and helps guide patient management. We investigated influences of early CTCA on the subsequent use of preventative treatment in patients with suspected acute coronary syndrome. METHODS: In this secondary analysis of a multicenter randomized controlled trial of early CTCA in intermediate-risk patients with suspected acute coronary syndrome, prescription of aspirin, P2Y12 receptor antagonist, statin, renin-angiotensin system blocker, and beta-blocker therapies from randomization to discharge were compared within then between those randomized to early CTCA or to standard of care only. Effects of CTCA findings on adjustment of these therapies were further examined. RESULTS: In 1,743 patients (874 randomized to early CTCA and 869 to standard of care only), prescription of P2Y12 receptor antagonist, dual antiplatelet, and statin therapies increased more in the early CTCA group (between-group difference: 4.6% [95% confidence interval, 0.3-8.9], 4.5% [95% confidence interval, 0.2-8.7], and 4.3% [95% confidence interval, 0.2-8.5], respectively), whereas prescription of other preventative therapies increased by similar extent in both study groups. Among patients randomized to early CTCA, there were additional increments of preventative treatment in those with obstructive coronary artery disease and higher rates of reductions in antiplatelet and beta-blocker therapies in those with normal coronary arteries. CONCLUSIONS: Prescription patterns of preventative treatment varied during index hospitalization in patients with suspected acute coronary syndrome. Early CTCA facilitated targeted individualization of these therapies based on the extent of coronary artery disease.

High-Sensitivity Cardiac Troponin for Risk Assessment in Patients With Chronic Coronary Artery Disease.

BACKGROUND: Cardiac troponin is used for risk stratification of patients with acute coronary syndromes; however, the role of testing in other settings remains unclear. OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to evaluate whether cardiac troponin testing could enhance risk stratification in patients with chronic coronary artery disease independent of disease severity and conventional risk measures. METHODS: In a prospective cohort of consecutive patients with symptoms suggestive of stable angina attending for outpatient coronary angiography, high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I was measured before angiography, and clinicians were blinded to the results. The primary outcome was myocardial infarction or cardiovascular death during follow-up. RESULTS: In 4,240 patients (age 66 years [IQR: 59-73 years], 33% female), coronary artery disease was identified in 3,888 (92%) who had 255 (6%) primary outcome events during a median follow-up of 2.4 years (IQR: 1.3-3.6 years). In patients with coronary artery disease, troponin concentrations were 2-fold higher in those with an event compared with those without (6.7 ng/L [IQR: 3.2-14.2 ng/L] vs 3.3 ng/L [IQR: 1.7-6.6 ng/L]; P < 0.001). Troponin concentrations were associated with the primary outcome after adjusting for cardiovascular risk factors and coronary artery disease severity (adjusted HR: 2.3; 95% CI: 1.7-3.0, log10 troponin; P < 0.001). A troponin concentration >10 ng/L identified patients with a 50% increase in the risk of myocardial infarction or cardiovascular death. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with chronic coronary artery disease, cardiac troponin predicts risk of myocardial infarction or cardiovascular death independent of cardiovascular risk factors and disease severity. Further studies are required to evaluate whether routine testing could inform the selection of high-risk patients for treatment intensification. (Myocardial Injury in Patients Referred for Coronary Angiography [MICA]; ISRCTN15620297).

Coronary Atherosclerotic Plaque Activity and Future Coronary Events.

Importance: Recurrent coronary events in patients with recent myocardial infarction remain a major clinical problem. Noninvasive measures of coronary atherosclerotic disease activity have the potential to identify individuals at greatest risk. Objective: To assess whether coronary atherosclerotic plaque activity as assessed by noninvasive imaging is associated with recurrent coronary events in patients with myocardial infarction. Design, Setting, and Participants: This prospective, longitudinal, international multicenter cohort study recruited participants aged 50 years or older with multivessel coronary artery disease and recent (within 21 days) myocardial infarction between September 2015 and February 2020, with a minimum 2 years' follow-up. Intervention: Coronary 18F-sodium fluoride positron emission tomography and coronary computed tomography angiography. Main Outcomes and Measures: Total coronary atherosclerotic plaque activity was assessed by 18F-sodium fluoride uptake. The primary end point was cardiac death or nonfatal myocardial infarction but was expanded during study conduct to include unscheduled coronary revascularization due to lower than anticipated primary event rates. Results: Among 2684 patients screened, 995 were eligible, 712 attended for imaging, and 704 completed an interpretable scan and comprised the study population. The mean (SD) age of participants was 63.8 (8.2) years, and most were male (601 [85%]). Total coronary atherosclerotic plaque activity was identified in 421 participants (60%). After a median follow-up of 4 years (IQR, 3-5 years), 141 participants (20%) experienced the primary end point: 9 had cardiac death, 49 had nonfatal myocardial infarction, and 83 had unscheduled coronary revascularizations. Increased coronary plaque activity was not associated with the primary end point (hazard ratio [HR], 1.25; 95% CI, 0.89-1.76; P = .20) or unscheduled revascularization (HR, 0.98; 95% CI, 0.64-1.49; P = .91) but was associated with the secondary end point of cardiac death or nonfatal myocardial infarction (47 of 421 patients with high plaque activity [11.2%] vs 19 of 283 with low plaque activity [6.7%]; HR, 1.82; 95% CI, 1.07-3.10; P = .03) and all-cause mortality (30 of 421 patients with high plaque activity [7.1%] vs 9 of 283 with low plaque activity [3.2%]; HR, 2.43; 95% CI, 1.15-5.12; P = .02). After adjustment for differences in baseline clinical characteristics, coronary angiography findings, and Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events score, high coronary plaque activity was associated with cardiac death or nonfatal myocardial infarction (HR, 1.76; 95% CI, 1.00-3.10; P = .05) but not with all-cause mortality (HR, 2.01; 95% CI, 0.90-4.49; P = .09). Conclusions and Relevance: In this cohort study of patients with recent myocardial infarction, coronary atherosclerotic plaque activity was not associated with the primary composite end point. The findings suggest that risk of cardiovascular death or myocardial infarction in patients with elevated plaque activity warrants further research to explore its incremental prognostic implications.

Troponin in acute chest pain to risk stratify and guide effective use of computed tomography coronary angiography (TARGET-CTCA): a randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: The majority of patients with suspected acute coronary syndrome presenting to the emergency department will be discharged once myocardial infarction has been ruled out, although a proportion will have unrecognised coronary artery disease. In this setting, high-sensitivity cardiac troponin identifies those at increased risk of future cardiac events. In patients with intermediate cardiac troponin concentrations in whom myocardial infarction has been ruled out, this trial aims to investigate whether outpatient computed tomography coronary angiography (CTCA) reduces subsequent myocardial infarction or cardiac death. METHODS: TARGET-CTCA is a multicentre prospective randomised open label with blinded endpoint parallel group event driven trial. After myocardial infarction and clear alternative diagnoses have been ruled out, participants with intermediate cardiac troponin concentrations (5 ng/L to 99th centile upper reference limit) will be randomised 1:1 to outpatient CTCA plus standard of care or standard of care alone. The primary endpoint is myocardial infarction or cardiac death. Secondary endpoints include clinical, patient-centred, process and cost-effectiveness. Recruitment of 2270 patients will give 90% power with a two-sided P value of 0.05 to detect a 40% relative risk reduction in the primary endpoint. Follow-up will continue until 97 primary outcome events have been accrued in the standard care arm with an estimated median follow-up of 36 months. DISCUSSION: This randomised controlled trial will determine whether high-sensitivity cardiac troponin-guided CTCA can improve outcomes and reduce subsequent major adverse cardiac events in patients presenting to the emergency department who do not have myocardial infarction. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT03952351. Registered on May 16, 2019.

Troponin in early presenters to rule out myocardial infarction.

AIMS: Whether a single cardiac troponin measurement can safely rule out myocardial infarction in patients presenting within a few hours of symptom onset is uncertain. The study aim was to assess the performance of troponin in early presenters. METHODS AND RESULTS: In patients with possible myocardial infarction, the diagnostic performance of a single measurement of high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I at presentation was evaluated and externally validated in those tested ≤3, 4-12, and >12 h from symptom onset. The limit-of-detection (2 ng/L), rule-out (5 ng/L), and sex-specific 99th centile (16 ng/L in women; 34 ng/L in men) thresholds were compared. In 41 103 consecutive patients [60 (17) years, 46% women], 12 595 (31%) presented within 3 h, and 3728 (9%) had myocardial infarction. In those presenting ≤3 h, a threshold of 2 ng/L had greater sensitivity and negative predictive value [99.4% (95% confidence interval 99.2%-99.5%) and 99.7% (99.6%-99.8%)] compared with 5 ng/L [96.5% (96.2%-96.8%) and 99.3% (99.1%-99.4%)]. In those presenting ≥3 h, the sensitivity and negative predictive value were similar for both thresholds. The sensitivity of the 99th centile was low in early and late presenters at 71.4% (70.6%-72.2%) and 92.5% (92.0%-93.0%), respectively. Findings were consistent in an external validation cohort of 7088 patients. CONCLUSION: In early presenters, a single measurement of high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I below the limit of detection may facilitate the safe rule out of myocardial infarction. The 99th centile should not be used to rule out myocardial infarction at presentation even in those presenting later following symptom onset.

Machine learning for diagnosis of myocardial infarction using cardiac troponin concentrations.

Although guidelines recommend fixed cardiac troponin thresholds for the diagnosis of myocardial infarction, troponin concentrations are influenced by age, sex, comorbidities and time from symptom onset. To improve diagnosis, we developed machine learning models that integrate cardiac troponin concentrations at presentation or on serial testing with clinical features and compute the Collaboration for the Diagnosis and Evaluation of Acute Coronary Syndrome (CoDE-ACS) score (0-100) that corresponds to an individual's probability of myocardial infarction. The models were trained on data from 10,038 patients (48% women), and their performance was externally validated using data from 10,286 patients (35% women) from seven cohorts. CoDE-ACS had excellent discrimination for myocardial infarction (area under curve, 0.953; 95% confidence interval, 0.947-0.958), performed well across subgroups and identified more patients at presentation as low probability of having myocardial infarction than fixed cardiac troponin thresholds (61 versus 27%) with a similar negative predictive value and fewer as high probability of having myocardial infarction (10 versus 16%) with a greater positive predictive value. Patients identified as having a low probability of myocardial infarction had a lower rate of cardiac death than those with intermediate or high probability 30 days (0.1 versus 0.5 and 1.8%) and 1 year (0.3 versus 2.8 and 4.2%; P < 0.001 for both) from patient presentation. CoDE-ACS used as a clinical decision support system has the potential to reduce hospital admissions and have major benefits for patients and health care providers.

Coronary low-attenuation plaque and high-sensitivity cardiac troponin.

OBJECTIVE: In patients with acute chest pain who have had myocardial infarction excluded, plasma cardiac troponin I concentrations ≥5 ng/L are associated with risk of future adverse cardiovascular events. We aim to evaluate the association between cardiac troponin and coronary plaque composition in such patients. METHODS: In a prespecified secondary analysis of a prospective cohort study, blinded quantitative plaque analysis was performed on 242 CT coronary angiograms of patients with acute chest pain in whom myocardial infarction was excluded. Patients were stratified by peak plasma cardiac troponin I concentration ≥5 ng/L or <5 ng/L. Associations were assessed using univariable and multivariable logistic regression analyses. RESULTS: The cohort was predominantly middle-aged (62±12 years) men (69%). Patients with plasma cardiac troponin I concentration ≥5 ng/L (n=161) had a higher total (median 33% (IQR 0-47) vs 0% (IQR 0-33)), non-calcified (27% (IQR 0-37) vs 0% (IQR 0-28)), calcified (2% (IQR 0-8) vs 0% (IQR 0-3)) and low-attenuation (1% (IQR 0-3) vs 0% (IQR 0-1)) coronary plaque burden compared with those with concentrations <5 ng/L (n=81; p≤0.001 for all). Low-attenuation plaque burden was independently associated with plasma cardiac troponin I concentration ≥5 ng/L after adjustment for clinical characteristics (adjusted OR per doubling 1.62 (95% CI 1.17 to 2.32), p=0.005) or presence of any visible coronary artery disease (adjusted OR per doubling 1.57 (95% CI 1.07 to 2.37), p=0.026). CONCLUSION: In patients with acute chest pain but without myocardial infarction, plasma cardiac troponin I concentrations ≥5 ng/L are associated with greater burden of low-attenuation coronary plaque.

Improving Risk Stratification for Patients With Type 2 Myocardial Infarction.

BACKGROUND: Despite poor cardiovascular outcomes, there are no dedicated, validated risk stratification tools to guide investigation or treatment in type 2 myocardial infarction. OBJECTIVES: The goal of this study was to derive and validate a risk stratification tool for the prediction of death or future myocardial infarction in patients with type 2 myocardial infarction. METHODS: The T2-risk score was developed in a prospective multicenter cohort of consecutive patients with type 2 myocardial infarction. Cox proportional hazards models were constructed for the primary outcome of myocardial infarction or death at 1 year using variables selected a priori based on clinical importance. Discrimination was assessed by area under the receiving-operating characteristic curve (AUC). Calibration was investigated graphically. The tool was validated in a single-center cohort of consecutive patients and in a multicenter cohort study from sites across Europe. RESULTS: There were 1,121, 250, and 253 patients in the derivation, single-center, and multicenter validation cohorts, with the primary outcome occurring in 27% (297 of 1,121), 26% (66 of 250), and 14% (35 of 253) of patients, respectively. The T2-risk score incorporating age, ischemic heart disease, heart failure, diabetes mellitus, myocardial ischemia on electrocardiogram, heart rate, anemia, estimated glomerular filtration rate, and maximal cardiac troponin concentration had good discrimination (AUC: 0.76; 95% CI: 0.73-0.79) for the primary outcome and was well calibrated. Discrimination was similar in the consecutive patient (AUC: 0.83; 95% CI: 0.77-0.88) and multicenter (AUC: 0.74; 95% CI: 0.64-0.83) cohorts. T2-risk provided improved discrimination over the Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events 2.0 risk score in all cohorts. CONCLUSIONS: The T2-risk score performed well in different health care settings and could help clinicians to prognosticate, as well as target investigation and preventative therapies more effectively. (High-Sensitivity Troponin in the Evaluation of Patients With Suspected Acute Coronary Syndrome [High-STEACS]; NCT01852123).

Distinguishing Type 1 from Type 2 Myocardial Infarction by Using CT Coronary Angiography.

Purpose: To determine whether quantitative plaque characterization by using CT coronary angiography (CTCA) can discriminate between type 1 and type 2 myocardial infarction. Materials and Methods: This was a secondary analysis of two prospective studies (ClinicalTrials.gov registration nos. NCT03338504 [2014-2019] and NCT02284191 [2018-2020]) that performed blinded quantitative plaque analysis on findings from CTCA in participants with type 1 myocardial infarction, type 2 myocardial infarction, and chest pain without myocardial infarction. Logistic regression analyses were performed to identify predictors of type 1 myocardial infarction. Results: Overall, 155 participants (mean age, 64 years ± 12 [SD]; 114 men) and 36 participants (mean age, 67 years ± 12; 19 men) had type 1 and type 2 myocardial infarction, respectively, and 136 participants (62 years ± 12; 78 men) had chest pain without myocardial infarction. Participants with type 1 myocardial infarction had greater total (median, 44% [IQR: 35%-50%] vs 35% [IQR: 29%-46%]), noncalcified (39% [IQR: 31%-46%] vs 34% [IQR: 29%-40%]), and low-attenuation (4.15% [IQR: 1.88%-5.79%] vs 1.64% [IQR: 0.89%-2.28%]) plaque burdens (P < .05 for all) than those with type 2. Participants with type 2 myocardial infarction had similar low-attenuation plaque burden to those with chest pain without myocardial infarction (P = .4). Low-attenuation plaque was an independent predictor of type 1 myocardial infarction (adjusted odds ratio, 3.44 [95% CI: 1.84, 6.96]; P < .001), with better discrimination than noncalcified plaque burden and maximal area of coronary stenosis (C statistic, 0.75 [95% CI: 0.67, 0.83] vs 0.62 [95% CI: 0.53, 0.71] and 0.61 [95% CI: 0.51, 0.70] respectively; P ≤ .001 for both). Conclusion: Higher low-attenuation coronary plaque burden in patients with type 1 myocardial infarction may help distinguish these patients from those with type 2 myocardial infarction.Keywords: Ischemia/Infarction, CT Angiography, Quantitative CTClinical trial registration nos. NCT03338504 and NCT02284191 Supplemental material is available for this article. © RSNA, 2022.

Performance status: A key factor in predicting mortality in the first wave of COVID-19 in South-East Scotland.

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 mortality risk factors have been established in large cohort studies; long-term mortality outcomes are less documented. METHODS: We performed multivariable logistic regression to identify factors associated with in-patient mortality and intensive care unit (ICU) admission in symptomatic COVID-19 patients admitted to hospitals in South-East Scotland from 1st March to 30th June 2020. One-year mortality was reviewed. RESULTS: Of 726 patients (median age 72; interquartile range: 58-83 years, 55% male), 104 (14%) required ICU admission and 199 (27%) died in hospital. A further 64 died between discharge and 30th June 2021 (36% overall 1-year mortality). Stepwise logistic regression identified age >79 (odds ratio (OR), 4.77 (95% confidence interval (CI), 1.96-12.75)), male sex (OR, 1.83 (95% CI, 1.21-2.80)) and higher European Cooperative Oncology Group/World Health Organization performance status as associated with higher mortality risk. DISCUSSION: Poor functional baseline was the predominant independent risk factor for mortality in COVID-19. More than one-third of individuals had died by 1 year following admission.

Plaque Burden and 1-Year Outcomes in Acute Chest Pain: Results From the Multicenter RAPID-CTCA Trial.

BACKGROUND: In patients with stable chest pain, computed tomography (CT) plaque burden is an independent predictor of future coronary events. OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this study was to determine whether plaque burden and characteristics can predict subsequent death or myocardial infarction in patients with acute chest pain. METHODS: In a post hoc analysis of a multicenter trial of early coronary CT angiography, the authors performed quantitative plaque analysis to assess the association between primary endpoint of 1-year all-cause death or nonfatal myocardial infarction and the GRACE (Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events) score, presence of obstructive coronary artery disease, and plaque burden in 404 patients with suspected acute coronary syndrome. RESULTS: Following the index event, 25 patients had a primary event that was associated with a higher GRACE score (134 ± 44 vs 113 ± 35; P = 0.012), larger burdens of total (46% [IQR: 43%-50%] vs 36% [IQR: 21%-46%]; P < 0.001), noncalcified (41% [IQR: 37%-%47] vs 33% [IQR: 20%-41%]; P < 0.001), and low-attenuation plaque (4.22% [IQR: 3.3%-5.68%] vs 2.14% [IQR: 0.5%-4.88%]; P < 0.001), but not obstructive coronary artery disease (P = 0.065). Total, noncalcified, and low-attenuation plaque burden were the strongest predictors of future events independent of GRACE score and obstructive coronary artery disease (P ≤ 0.002 for all). Patients with a low-attenuation burden above the median had nearly an 8-fold increased risk of the primary endpoint (HR: 7.80 [95% CI: 2.33-26.0]; P < 0.001), outperforming either a GRACE score of >140 (HR: 3.80 [95% CI :1.45-6.98]; P = 0.004) or obstructive coronary artery disease (HR: 2.07 [95% CI: 0.94-4.53]; P = 0.07). CONCLUSIONS: In patients with suspected acute coronary syndrome, low-attenuation plaque burden is a major predictor of 1-year death or recurrent myocardial infarction. (Rapid Assessment of Potential Ischaemic Heart Disease With CTCA [RAPID-CTCA]; NCT02284191).

Influence of Age on the Diagnosis of Myocardial Infarction.

BACKGROUND: The 99th centile of cardiac troponin, derived from a healthy reference population, is recommended as the diagnostic threshold for myocardial infarction, but troponin concentrations are strongly influenced by age. Our aim was to assess the diagnostic performance of cardiac troponin in older patients presenting with suspected myocardial infarction. METHODS: In a secondary analysis of a multicenter trial of consecutive patients with suspected myocardial infarction, we assessed the diagnostic accuracy of high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I at presentation for the diagnosis of type 1, type 2, or type 4b myocardial infarction across 3 age groups (<50, 50-74, and ≥75 years) using guideline-recommended sex-specific and age-adjusted 99th centile thresholds. RESULTS: In 46 435 consecutive patients aged 18 to 108 years (mean, 61±17 years), 5216 (11%) had a diagnosis of myocardial infarction. In patients <50 (n=12 379), 50 to 74 (n=22 380), and ≥75 (n=11 676) years, the sensitivity of the guideline-recommended threshold was similar at 79.2% (95% CI, 75.5-82.9), 80.6% (95% CI, 79.2-82.1), and 81.6% (95% CI, 79.8-83.2), respectively. The specificity decreased with advancing age from 98.3% (95% CI, 98.1-98.5) to 95.5% (95% CI, 95.2-95.8), and 82.6% (95% CI, 81.9-83.4). The use of age-adjusted 99th centile thresholds improved the specificity (91.3% [90.8%-91.9%] versus 82.6% [95% CI, 81.9%-83.4%]) and positive predictive value (59.3% [57.0%-61.5%] versus 51.5% [49.9%-53.3%]) for myocardial infarction in patients ≥75 years but failed to prevent the decrease in either parameter with increasing age and resulted in a marked reduction in sensitivity compared with the use of the guideline-recommended threshold (55.9% [53.6%-57.9%] versus 81.6% [79.8%-83.3%]. CONCLUSIONS: Age alters the diagnostic performance of cardiac troponin, with reduced specificity and positive predictive value in older patients when applying the guideline-recommended or age-adjusted 99th centiles. Individualized diagnostic approaches rather than the adjustment of binary thresholds are needed in an aging population.