The role of endoscopic ultrasound in the detection of pancreatic lesions in high-risk individuals.

Individuals at high risk of developing pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma are eligible for surveillance within research programs. These programs employ periodic imaging in the form of magnetic resonance imaging/magnetic resonance cholangiopancreatography or endoscopic ultrasound for the detection of early cancer or high-grade precursor lesions. This narrative review discusses the role of endoscopic ultrasound within these surveillance programs. It details its overall strengths and limitations, yield, burden on patients, and how it compares to magnetic resonance imaging. Finally, recommendations are given when and how to incorporate endoscopic ultrasound in the surveillance of high-risk individuals.

Intrapancreatic fat deposition is unrelated to liver steatosis in metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease.

Background & Aims: Individuals with obesity may develop intrapancreatic fat deposition (IPFD) and fatty pancreas disease (FPD). Whether this causes inflammation and fibrosis and leads to pancreatic dysfunction is less established than for liver damage in metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD). Moreover, the interrelations of FPD and MASLD are poorly understood. Therefore, we aimed to assess IPFD and fibro-inflammation in relation to pancreatic function and liver disease severity in individuals with MASLD. Methods: Seventy-six participants from the Amsterdam MASLD-MASH cohort (ANCHOR) study underwent liver biopsy and multiparametric MRI of the liver and pancreas, consisting of proton-density fat fraction sequences, T1 mapping and intravoxel incoherent motion diffusion-weighted imaging (IVIM-DWI). Results: The prevalence of FPD was 37.3%. There was a clear correlation between pancreatic T1 relaxation time, which indicates fibro-inflammation, and parameters of glycemic dysregulation, namely HbA1c (R = 0.59; p <0.001), fasting glucose (R = 0.51; p <0.001) and the presence of type 2 diabetes (mean 802.0 ms vs. 733.6 ms; p <0.05). In contrast, there was no relation between IPFD and hepatic fat content (R = 0.03; p = 0.80). Pancreatic IVIM diffusion (IVIM-D) was lower in advanced liver fibrosis (p <0.05) and pancreatic perfusion (IVIM-f), reflecting vessel density, inversely correlated to histological MASLD activity (p <0.05). Conclusions: Consistent relations exist between pancreatic fibro-inflammation on MRI and endocrine function in individuals with MASLD. However, despite shared dysmetabolic drivers, our study suggests IPFD is a separate pathophysiological process from MASLD. Impact and implications: Metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) is the most common chronic liver disease worldwide and 68% of people with type 2 diabetes have MASLD. However, fat infiltration and inflammation in the pancreas are understudied in individuals with MASLD. In this cross-sectional MRI study, we found no relationship between fat accumulation in the pancreas and liver in a cohort of patients with MASLD. However, our results show that inflammatory and fibrotic processes in the pancreas may be interrelated to features of type 2 diabetes and to the severity of liver disease in patients with MASLD. Overall, the results suggest that pancreatic endocrine dysfunction in individuals with MASLD may be more related to glucotoxicity than to lipotoxicity. Clinical trial number: NTR7191 (Dutch Trial Register).

Type 1 Autoimmune Pancreatitis in Europe: Clinical Profile and Response to Treatment.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Autoimmune pancreatitis (AIP) is an immune-mediated disease of the pancreas with distinct pathophysiology and manifestations. Our aims were to characterize type 1 AIP in a large pan-European cohort and study the effectiveness of current treatment regimens. METHODS: We retrospectively analyzed adults diagnosed since 2005 with type 1 or not-otherwise-specified AIP in 42 European university hospitals. Type 1 AIP was uniformly diagnosed using specific diagnostic criteria. Patients with type 2 AIP and those who had undergone pancreatic surgery were excluded. The primary end point was complete remission, defined as the absence of clinical symptoms and resolution of the index radiologic pancreatic abnormalities attributed to AIP. RESULTS: We included 735 individuals with AIP (69% male; median age, 57 years; 85% White). Steroid treatment was started in 634 patients, of whom 9 (1%) were lost to follow-up. The remaining 625 had a 79% (496/625) complete, 18% (111/625) partial, and 97% (607/625) cumulative remission rate, whereas 3% (18/625) did not achieve remission. No treatment was given in 95 patients, who had a 61% complete (58/95), 19% partial (18/95), and 80% cumulative (76/95) spontaneous remission rate. Higher (≥0.4 mg/kg/day) corticosteroid doses were no more effective than lower (<0.4 mg/kg/day) doses (odds ratio, 0.428; 95% confidence interval, 0.054-3.387) and neither was a starting dose duration >2 weeks (odds ratio, 0.908; 95% confidence interval, 0.818-1.009). Elevated IgG4 levels were independently associated with a decreased chance of complete remission (odds ratio, 0.639; 95% confidence interval, 0.427-0.955). Relapse occurred in 30% of patients. Relapses within 6 months of remission induction were independent of the steroid-tapering duration, induction treatment duration, and total cumulative dose. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with type 1 AIP and elevated IgG4 level may need closer monitoring. For remission induction, a starting dose of 0.4 mg/kg/day for 2 weeks followed by a short taper period seems effective. This study provides no evidence to support more aggressive regimens.

Intraductal Papillary Mucinous Neoplasms in High-Risk Individuals: Incidence, Growth Rate, and Malignancy Risk.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: In high-risk individuals (HRIs), we aimed to assess the cumulative incidence of intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (IPMNs) and compare IPMN growth, neoplastic progression rate, and the value of growth as predictor for neoplastic progression to these in sporadic IPMNs. METHODS: We performed annual surveillance of Dutch HRIs, involving carriers of germline pathogenic variants (PVs) and PV-negative familial pancreatic cancer kindreds. HRIs with IPMNs were compared with Italian individuals without familial risk under surveillance for sporadic IPMNs. RESULTS: A total of 457 HRIs were followed for 48 (range 2-172) months; the estimated cumulative IPMN incidence was 46% (95% confidence interval, 28%-64%). In comparison with 442 control individuals, IPMNs in HRIs were more likely to grow ≥2.5 mm/y (31% vs 7%; P < .001) and develop worrisome features (32% vs 19%; P = .010). PV carriers with IPMNs more often displayed neoplastic progression (n = 3 [11%] vs n = 6 [1%]; P = .011), while familial pancreatic cancer kindreds did not (n = 0 [0%]; P = 1.000). The malignancy risk in a PV carrier with an IPMN was 23% for growth rates ≥2.5 mm/y (n = 13), 30% for ≥5 mm/y (n = 10), and 60% for ≥10 mm/y (n = 5). CONCLUSIONS: The cumulative incidence of IPMNs in HRIs is higher than previously reported in the general population. Compared with sporadic IPMNs, they have an increased growth rate. PV carriers with IPMNs are suggested to be at a higher malignancy risk. Intensive follow-up should be considered for PV carriers with an IPMN growing ≥2.5 mm/y, and surgical resection for those growing ≥5 mm/y.

Mutation Analysis of Pancreatic Juice and Plasma for the Detection of Pancreatic Cancer.

Molecular profiling may enable earlier detection of pancreatic cancer (PC) in high-risk individuals undergoing surveillance and allow for personalization of treatment. We hypothesized that the detection rate of DNA mutations is higher in pancreatic juice (PJ) than in plasma due to its closer contact with the pancreatic ductal system, from which pancreatic cancer cells originate, and higher overall cell-free DNA (cfDNA) concentrations. In this study, we included patients with pathology-proven PC or intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm (IPMN) with high-grade dysplasia (HGD) from two prospective clinical trials (KRASPanc and PACYFIC) for whom both PJ and plasma were available. We performed next-generation sequencing on PJ, plasma, and tissue samples and described the presence (and concordance) of mutations in these biomaterials. This study included 26 patients (25 PC and 1 IPMN with HGD), of which 7 were women (27%), with a median age of 71 years (IQR 12) and a median BMI of 23 kg/m2 (IQR 4). Ten patients with PC (40%) were (borderline) resectable at baseline. Tissue was available from six patients (resection n = 5, biopsy n = 1). A median volume of 2.9 mL plasma (IQR 1.0 mL) and 0.7 mL PJ (IQR 0.1 mL, p < 0.001) was used for DNA isolation. PJ had a higher median cfDNA concentration (2.6 ng/µL (IQR 4.2)) than plasma (0.29 ng/µL (IQR 0.40)). A total of 41 unique somatic mutations were detected: 24 mutations in plasma (2 KRAS, 15 TP53, 2 SMAD4, 3 CDKN2A 1 CTNNB1, and 1 PIK3CA), 19 in PJ (3 KRAS, 15 TP53, and 1 SMAD4), and 8 in tissue (2 KRAS, 2 CDKN2A, and 4 TP53). The mutation detection rate (and the concordance with tissue) did not differ between plasma and PJ. In conclusion, while the concentration of cfDNA was indeed higher in PJ than in plasma, the mutation detection rate was not different. A few cancer-associated genetic variants were detected in both biomaterials. Further research is needed to increase the detection rate and assess the performance and suitability of plasma and PJ for PC (early) detection.

The Natural Disease Course of Pancreatic Cyst-Associated Neoplasia, Dysplasia, and Ductal Adenocarcinoma: Results of a Microsimulation Model.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Estimates on the progression of precursor lesions to pancreatic cancer (PC) are scarce. We used microsimulation modeling to gain insight into the natural disease course of PC and its precursors. This information is pivotal to explore the efficacy of PC screening. METHODS: A Microsimulation Screening Analysis model was developed in which pancreatic intraepithelial neoplasms and cysts can evolve from low-grade dysplasia (LGD) to high-grade dysplasia (HGD) to PC. The model was calibrated to Dutch PC incidence data and Japanese precursor prevalence data (autopsy cases without PC) and provides estimates of PC progression (precursor lesion onset and stage duration). RESULTS: Mean LGD state durations of cysts and pancreatic intraepithelial neoplasms were 15.8 years and 17.1 years, respectively. Mean HGD state duration was 5.8 years. For lesions that progress to PC, the mean duration was 4.8-4.9 years for LGD lesions and 4.0-4.1 years for HGD lesions. In 13.7% of individuals who developed PC, the HGD state lasted less than 1 year. The probability that an individual at age 50 years developed PC in the next 20 years was estimated to be 1.8% in the presence of any cyst and 6.1% in case of an LGD mucinous cyst. This 20-year PC risk was estimated to be 5.1% for individuals with an LGD pancreatic intraepithelial neoplasm. CONCLUSIONS: Mean duration of HGD lesions before development of PC was estimated to be 4.0 years. This implies a window of opportunity for screening, presuming the availability of a reliable diagnostic test. The probability that an LGD cyst will progress to cancer was predicted to be low.

The additive value of CA19.9 monitoring in a pancreatic cyst surveillance program.

BACKGROUND: Surveillance of pancreatic cysts focuses on the detection of (mostly morphologic) features warranting surgery. European guidelines consider elevated CA19.9 as a relative indication for surgery. We aimed to evaluate the role of CA19.9 monitoring for early detection and management in a cyst surveillance population. METHODS: The PACYFIC-registry is a prospective collaboration that investigates the yield of pancreatic cyst surveillance performed at the discretion of the treating physician. We included participants for whom at least one serum CA19.9 value was determined by a minimum follow-up of 12 months. RESULTS: Of 1865 PACYFIC participants, 685 met the inclusion criteria for this study (mean age 67 years, SD 10; 61% female). During a median follow-up of 25 months (IQR 24, 1966 visits), 29 participants developed high-grade dysplasia (HGD) or pancreatic cancer. At baseline, CA19.9 ranged from 1 to 591 kU/L (median 10 kU/L [IQR 14]), and was elevated (≥37 kU/L) in 64 participants (9%). During 191 of 1966 visits (10%), an elevated CA19.9 was detected, and these visits more often led to an intensified follow-up (42%) than those without an elevated CA19.9 (27%; p < 0.001). An elevated CA19.9 was the sole reason for surgery in five participants with benign disease (10%). The baseline CA19.9 value was (as continuous or dichotomous variable at the 37 kU/L threshold) not independently associated with HGD or pancreatic cancer development, whilst a CA19.9 of ≥ 133 kU/L was (HR 3.8, 95% CI 1.1-13, p = 0.03). CONCLUSIONS: In this pancreatic cyst surveillance cohort, CA19.9 monitoring caused substantial harm by shortening surveillance intervals (and performance of unnecessary surgery). The current CA19.9 cutoff was not predictive of HGD and pancreatic cancer, whereas a higher cutoff may decrease false-positive values. The role of CA19.9 monitoring should be critically appraised prior to implementation in surveillance programs and guidelines.

An 8q24 Gain in Pancreatic Juice Is a Candidate Biomarker for the Detection of Pancreatic Cancer.

Secretin-stimulated pancreatic juice (PJ), collected from the duodenum, presents a valuable biomarker source for the (earlier) detection of pancreatic cancer (PC). Here, we evaluate the feasibility and performance of shallow sequencing to detect copy number variations (CNVs) in cell-free DNA (cfDNA) from PJ for PC detection. First, we confirmed the feasibility of shallow sequencing in PJ (n = 4), matched plasma (n = 3) and tissue samples (n = 4, microarray). Subsequently, shallow sequencing was performed on cfDNA from PJ of 26 cases (25 sporadic PC, 1 high-grade dysplasia) and 19 controls with a hereditary or familial increased risk of PC. 40 of the 45 PJ samples met the quality criteria for cfDNA analysis. Nine individuals had an 8q24 gain (oncogene MYC; 23%; eight cases (33%) and one control (6%), p = 0.04); six had both a 2q gain (STAT1) and 5p loss (CDH10; 15%; four cases (7%) and two controls (13%), p = 0.72). The presence of an 8q24 gain differentiated the cases and controls, with a sensitivity of 33% (95% CI 16-55%) and specificity of 94% (95% CI 70-100%). The presence of either an 8q24 or 2q gain with a 5p loss was related to a sensitivity of 50% (95% CI 29-71%) and specificity of 81% (95% CI 54-96%). Shallow sequencing of PJ is feasible. The presence of an 8q24 gain in PJ shows promise as a biomarker for the detection of PC. Further research is required with a larger sample size and consecutively collected samples in high-risk individuals prior to implementation in a surveillance cohort.

The impact of pancreatic cancer screening on life expectancy: A systematic review of modeling studies.

Evidence supporting the effectiveness of pancreatic cancer (PC) screening is scant. Most clinical studies concern small populations with short follow-up durations. Mathematical models are useful to estimate long-term effects of PC screening using short-term indicators. This systematic review aims to evaluate the impact of PC screening on life expectancy (LE) in model-based studies. Therefore, we searched four databases (Embase, Medline, Web-of-science, Cochrane) until 30 May 2022 to identify model-based studies evaluating the impact of PC screening on LE in different risk populations. Two authors independently screened identified papers, extracted data and assessed the methodological quality of studies. A descriptive analysis was performed and the impact of screening strategies on LE of different risk groups was reported. Our search resulted in 419 studies, of which eight met the eligibility criteria (mathematical model, PC screening, LE). Reported relative risks (RR) for PC varied from 1 to 70. In higher risk individuals (RR > 5), annual screening (by imaging with 56% sensitivity for HGD/early stage PC) predicted to increase LE of screened individuals by 20 to 260 days. In the general population, one-time PC screening was estimated to decrease LE (2-110 days), depending on the test characteristics and treatment mortality risk. In conclusion, although the models use different and sometimes outdated or unrealistic assumptions, it seems that PC screening in high-risk populations improves LE, and that this gain increases with a higher PC risk. Updated model studies, with data from large clinical trials are necessary to predict the long-term effect of PC screening more accurately.

Protein biomarkers in pancreatic juice and serum for identification of pancreatic cancer.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: To date, surveillance of high-risk individuals for pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) has not lived up to expectations, as identification of curable stages through imaging remains challenging. Biomarkers are therefore needed. Pancreatic juice (PJ) may be a promising source, because it is in direct contact with the ductal epithelial lining from which PDAC arises. We aimed to develop a panel of biomarkers from serum and PJ to detect PDAC for future surveillance purposes. METHODS: All patients who underwent PJ collection on secretin stimulation at the Erasmus MC were included. Both PJ and serum were evaluated. Protein levels were determined by the Lowry assay. Potential biomarkers (interleukin-8, interferon-γ, neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin [NGAL], mucin 5, subtype AC [MUC5AC], mucin 2, phospholipase A2 group IB) were selected based on previously reported outcomes and assessed with enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Serum carbohydrate antigen 19-9 (CA19-9) values were determined by electrochemiluminescence immunoassay. RESULTS: This study included 59 cases and 126 surveilled control subjects (who underwent PJ collection), of whom 71 had a hereditary predisposition (35 genetic, 36 familial) and 55 had (suspected neoplastic) pancreatic cysts. CA19-9 values were available for 53 cases and 48 control subjects. Serum CA19-9, as well as PJ interleukin-8, NGAL and MUC5AC, were associated with PDAC independent of age, gender, and presence of diabetes mellitus. Serum CA19-9 had a significantly higher area under the curve (AUC; .86; 95% confidence interval [CI], .79-.94) than individual PJ markers (AUC, .62-.70). A combination of PJ markers and serum CA19-9 (panel 2: sensitivity 42% [95% CI, 29-57] and specificity 96% [95% CI, 86-100]) did not improve diagnostic performance compared with CA19-9 alone (sensitivity 70% [95% CI, 56-82] and specificity 85% [95% CI, 72-94]). CONCLUSIONS: High levels of serum CA19-9 and PJ-derived proteins are associated with PDAC. Prospective surveillance studies including individuals at risk of developing PDAC are required to validate these findings.

Extracellular vesicle-derived microRNAs in pancreatic juice as biomarkers for detection of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma.

INTRODUCTION: Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) is usually diagnosed in an advanced stage, with minimal likelihood of long-term survival. Only a small subset of patients are diagnosed with early (T1) disease. Early detection is challenging due to the late onset of symptoms and limited visibility of sub-centimeter cancers on imaging. A novel approach is to support the clinical diagnosis with molecular markers. MicroRNA derived from extracellular vehicles (EVs) in blood has shown promise as a potential biomarker for pancreatic neoplasia, but microRNA derived from pancreatic juice (PJ) may be a more sensitive biomarker, given that is in close contact with ductal cells from which PDAC arises. This study aims to evaluate and compare the performance of PJ- and serum-derived EV-miRNA for the detection of PDAC. METHODS: PJ was collected from the duodenum during EUS after secretin stimulation from 54 patients with PDAC and 118 non-malignant controls. Serum was available for a subset of these individuals. MiR-16, miR-21, miR-25, miR-155 and miR-210 derived from EVs isolated from PJ and serum were analyzed by qPCR, and serum CA19-9 levels were determined by electrochemiluminescence immunoassay. For statistical analysis, either a Mann-Whitney U test or a Wilcoxon Signed Rank test was performed. ROC curves and AUC were used to assess the sensitivity and specificity of miR expression for PDAC detection. RESULTS: Expression of EV-miR-21, EV-miR-25 and EV-miR-16 were increased in cases vs controls in PJ, while only EV-miR-210 was increased in serum. The potential to detect PC was good for a combination of PJ EV-miR-21, EV-miR-25, EV-miR-16 and serum miR-210, CA-19-9, with an area under the curve of 0.91, a specificity of 84.2% and a sensitivity of 81.5%. CONCLUSION: Detection of miRNA from EVs in PJ is feasible. A combined panel of PJ EV-miR-21, EV-miR-25, EV-miR-16, and serum EV-miR-210 and CA19-9 distinguishes cases with PDAC from controls undergoing surveillance with a specificity of 81.5% and sensitivity of 84.2%.

Size and Concentration of Extracellular Vesicles in Pancreatic Juice From Patients With Pancreatic Ductal Adenocarcinoma.

INTRODUCTION: Extracellular vesicles (EVs) and their cargo may provide promising biomarkers for the early detection of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC). Although blood-borne EVs are most frequently studied as cancer biomarkers, pancreatic juice (PJ) may represent a better biomarker source because it is in close contact with the ductal cells from which PDAC arises. It is, as yet, unknown whether PDAC results in a distinct type or increased number of particles in PJ and whether this has diagnostic value. METHODS: Secretin-stimulated PJ was collected from the duodenum of 54 cases and 117 nonmalignant controls under surveillance for PDAC. Serum was available for a subset of these individuals. The vesicular composition of these biofluids was analyzed with nanoparticle tracking analysis. RESULTS: The concentration of EVs did not differ between controls and PDAC cases. However, a higher number of large vesicles were found in PJ (but not serum) for patients with PDAC compared with controls. DISCUSSION: The composition of isolated EVs from PJ, but not serum, is altered in patients with PDAC. This suggests that PJ may carry disease-specific markers not present in serum and provides a valuable biomarker source for PDAC diagnosis. The nature of the larger particles in EV isolates from PJ of PDAC cases requires further investigation.

International external validation of a stratification tool to identify branch-duct intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms at lowest risk of progression.

BACKGROUND: Identifying branch-duct intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (BD-IPMNs) at lowest risk of progression may allow for a reduced intensity of surveillance. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to externally validate the previously developed Dutch-American Risk stratification Tool (DART-1; https://rtools.mayo.edu/DART/), which identifies cysts at low risk of developing worrisome features (WFs) or high-risk stigmata (HRS). METHODS: Three prospective cohorts of individuals under surveillance for BD-IPMNs were combined, independent from the original development cohort. We assessed the performance (discrimination and calibration) of DART-1, a multivariable Cox-proportional logistic regression model with five predictors for the development of WFs or HRS. RESULTS: Of 832 individuals (mean age 77 years, SD 11.5) under surveillance for a median of 40 months (IQR 44), 163 (20%) developed WFs or HRS. DART-1's discriminative ability (C-statistic 0.68) was similar to that in the development cohort (0.64-0.72) and showed moderate calibration. DART-1 adequately estimated the risk for patients in the middle risk quintile, and slightly underestimated it in the lowest quintiles. Their range of predicted versus observed 3-year risk was 0%-0% versus 0%-3.7% for Q1; 0.3%-0.4% versus 3%-11% for Q2; and 2.6%-3% versus 2.4%-9.8% for Q3. The development of WFs or HRS was associated with pancreatic cancer (p < 0.001). Vice versa, in absence of WFs or HRS, the risk of malignancy was low (0.3%). CONCLUSIONS: The performance of DART-1 to predict the development of WFs or HRS in BD-IPMN was validated in an external international cohort, with a discriminative ability equal as in the development cohort. Risk estimations were most accurate for patients with BD-IPMNs in the middle risk quintile and slightly underestimated in the lowest quintiles.

Long-term yield of pancreatic cancer surveillance in high-risk individuals.

OBJECTIVE: We aimed to determine the long-term yield of pancreatic cancer surveillance in hereditary predisposed high-risk individuals. DESIGN: From 2006 to 2019, we prospectively enrolled asymptomatic individuals with an estimated 10% or greater lifetime risk of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) after obligatory evaluation by a clinical geneticist and genetic testing, and subjected them to annual surveillance with both endoscopic ultrasonography (EUS) and MRI/cholangiopancreatography (MRI/MRCP) at each visit. RESULTS: 366 individuals (201 mutation-negative familial pancreatic cancer (FPC) kindreds and 165 PDAC susceptibility gene mutation carriers; mean age 54 years, SD 9.9) were followed for 63 months on average (SD 43.2). Ten individuals developed PDAC, of which four presented with a symptomatic interval carcinoma and six underwent resection. The cumulative PDAC incidence was 9.3% in the mutation carriers and 0% in the FPC kindreds (p<0.001). Median PDAC survival was 18 months (range 1-32). Surgery was performed in 17 individuals (4.6%), whose pathology revealed 6 PDACs (3 T1N0M0), 7 low-grade precursor lesions, 2 neuroendocrine tumours <2 cm, 1 autoimmune pancreatitis and in 1 individual no abnormality. There was no surgery-related mortality. EUS detected more solid lesions than MRI/MRCP (100% vs 22%, p<0.001), but less cystic lesions (42% vs 83%, p<0.001). CONCLUSION: The diagnostic yield of PDAC was substantial in established high-risk mutation carriers, but non-existent in the mutation-negative proven FPC kindreds. Nevertheless, timely identification of resectable lesions proved challenging despite the concurrent use of two imaging modalities, with EUS outperforming MRI/MRCP. Overall, surveillance by imaging yields suboptimal results with a clear need for more sensitive diagnostic markers, including biomarkers.

Timeline of Development of Pancreatic Cancer and Implications for Successful Early Detection in High-Risk Individuals.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: To successfully implement imaging-based pancreatic cancer (PC) surveillance, understanding the timeline and morphologic features of neoplastic progression is key. We aimed to investigate the progression to neoplasia from serial prediagnostic pancreatic imaging tests in high-risk individuals and identify factors associated with successful early detection. METHODS: We retrospectively examined the development of pancreatic abnormalities in high-risk individuals who were diagnosed with PC or underwent pancreatic surgery, or both, in 16 international surveillance programs. RESULTS: Of 2552 high-risk individuals under surveillance, 28 (1%) developed neoplastic progression to PC or high-grade dysplasia during a median follow-up of 29 months after baseline (interquartile range [IQR], 40 months). Of these, 13 of 28 (46%) presented with a new lesion (median size, 15 mm; range 7-57 mm), a median of 11 months (IQR, 8; range 3-17 months) after a prior examination, by which time 10 of 13 (77%) had progressed beyond the pancreas. The remaining 15 of 28 (54%) had neoplastic progression in a previously detected lesion (12 originally cystic, 2 indeterminate, 1 solid), and 11 (73%) had PC progressed beyond the pancreas. The 12 patients with cysts had been monitored for 21 months (IQR, 15 months) and had a median growth of 5 mm/y (IQR, 8 mm/y). Successful early detection (as high-grade dysplasia or PC confined to the pancreas) was associated with resection of cystic lesions (vs solid or indeterminate lesions (odds ratio, 5.388; 95% confidence interval, 1.525-19.029) and small lesions (odds ratio, 0.890/mm; 95% confidence interval 0.812-0.976/mm). CONCLUSIONS: In nearly half of high-risk individuals developing high-grade dysplasia or PC, no prior lesions are detected by imaging, yet they present at an advanced stage. Progression can occur before the next scheduled annual examination. More sensitive diagnostic tools or a different management strategy for rapidly growing cysts are needed.

Identifying key factors for the effectiveness of pancreatic cancer screening: A model-based analysis.

Pancreatic cancer (PC) survival is poor, as detection usually occurs late, when treatment options are limited. Screening of high-risk individuals may enable early detection and a more favorable prognosis. Knowledge gaps prohibit establishing the effectiveness of screening. We developed a Microsimulation Screening Analysis model to analyze the impact of relevant uncertainties on the effect of PC screening in high-risk individuals. The model simulates two base cases: one in which lesions always progress to PC and one in which indolent and faster progressive lesions coexist. For each base case, the effect of annual and 5-yearly screening with endoscopic ultrasonography/magnetic resonance imaging was evaluated. The impact of variance in PC risk, screening test characteristics and surgery-related mortality was evaluated using sensitivity analyses. Screening resulted in a reduction of PC mortality by at least 16% in all simulated scenarios. This reduction depended strongly on the natural disease course (annual screening: -57% for "Progressive-only" vs -41% for "Indolent Included"). The number of screen and surveillance tests needed to prevent one cancer death was impacted most by PC risk. A 10% increase in test sensitivity reduced mortality by 1.9% at most. Test specificity is important for the number of surveillance tests. In conclusion, screening reduces PC mortality in all modeled scenarios. The natural disease course and PC risk strongly determines the effectiveness of screening. Test sensitivity seems of lesser influence than specificity. Future research should gain more insight in PC pathobiology to establish the true value of PC screening in high-risk individuals.

Liraglutide and sitagliptin have no effect on intestinal microbiota composition: A 12-week randomized placebo-controlled trial in adults with type 2 diabetes.

AIM: Preclinical data suggest that treatment with either glucagon-like peptide (GLP)-1 receptor agonists or dipeptidyl peptidase (DPP)-4 inhibitors could change the intestinal microbiome and thereby contribute to their beneficial (cardio)metabolic effects. Therefore, our study aimed to investigate the effects of these agents on microbiota composition in adults with type 2 diabetes (T2D). METHODS: A total of 51 adults with T2D (mean ± SD: age 62.8 ± 6.9 years, BMI 31.8 ± 4.1 kg/m2, HbA1c 7.3 ± 0.6%) treated with metformin and/or sulphonylureas were included in the 12-week randomized, double-blind trial. Patients were given the GLP-1 receptor agonist liraglutide (1.8 mg sc) or the DPP-4 inhibitor sitagliptin (100 mg), or matching placebos, once daily for 12 weeks. Faecal samples were collected at baseline and at 12 weeks after the start of the intervention. Microbiota analyses were performed by 16S rRNA gene-sequencing analysis. Bile acids were measured in faeces and plasma. RESULTS: Liraglutide decreased HbA1c by 1.3% (95% CI: -1.7 to -0.9) and tended to reduce body weight (-1.7 kg, 95% CI: -3.6 to 0.3), but increased faecal secondary bile acid deoxycholic acid. Sitagliptin lowered HbA1c by 0.8% (95% CI: -1.4 to -0.4) while body weight remained stable (-0.8 kg, 95% CI: -2.7 to 1.0), but increased faecal levels of cholic acid, chenodeoxycholic acid and ursodeoxycholic acid. However, neither liraglutide nor sitagliptin affected either alpha or beta diversity of the intestinal microbiota, nor were changes in microbial composition related to clinical parameters. CONCLUSION: These data suggest that the beneficial effects of liraglutide and sitagliptin on glucose metabolism, body weight and bile acids, when used as add-on therapies to metformin or sulphonylureas, are not linked to changes in the intestinal microbiota (NCT01744236).

Genotype-phenotype correlations for pancreatic cancer risk in Dutch melanoma families with pathogenic CDKN2A variants.

BACKGROUND: Pathogenic variants in the CDKN2A gene are generally associated with the development of melanoma and pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC), but specific genotype-phenotype correlations might exist and the extent of PDAC risk is not well established for many variants. METHODS: Using the Dutch national familial melanoma database, we identified all families with a pathogenic CDKN2A variant and investigated the occurrence of PDAC within these families. We also estimated the standardised incidence ratio and lifetime PDAC risk for carriers of a highly prevalent variant in these families. RESULTS: We identified 172 families in which 649 individuals carried 15 different pathogenic variants. The most prevalent variant was the founder mutation c.225_243del (p16-Leiden, 484 proven carriers). Second most prevalent was c.67G>C (55 proven carriers). PDAC developed in 95 of 163 families (58%, including 373 of 629 proven carriers) harbouring a variant with an effect on the p16INK4a protein, whereas PDAC did not occur in the 9 families (20 proven carriers) with a variant affecting only p14ARF. In the c.67G>C families, PDAC occurred in 12 of the 251 (5%) persons at risk. The standardised incidence ratio was 19.1 (95% CI 8.3 to 33.6) and the cumulative PDAC incidence at age 75 years (lifetime risk) was 19% (95% CI 7.5% to 30.1%). CONCLUSIONS: Our results support the notion that pathogenic CDKN2A variants affecting the p16INK4a protein, including c.67G>C, are associated with increased PDAC risk and carriers of such variants should be offered pancreatic cancer surveillance. There is no clinical evidence that impairment of only the p14ARF protein leads to an increased PDAC risk.