ABSTRACT
African swine fever virus (ASFV) causes a devastating disease affecting domestic and wild pigs. ASF was first introduced in Sardinia in 1978 and until 2019 only genotype I isolates were identified. A remarkable genetic stability of Sardinian ASFV isolates was described, nevertheless in 2019 two wild boar isolates with a sustained genomic deletion (4342 base pairs) were identified (7303WB/19, 7212WB/19). In this study, we therefore performed in vitro experiments with monocyte-derived macrophages (moMФ) to unravel the phenotypic characteristics of these deleted viruses. Both 7303WB/19 and 7212WB/19 presented a lower growth kinetic in moMФ compared to virulent Sardinian 26544/OG10, using either a high (1) or a low (0.01) multiplicity of infection (MOI). In addition, flow cytometric analysis showed that both 7303WB/19 and 7212WB/19 presented lower intracellular levels of both early and late ASFV proteins. We subsequently investigated whether deleted virus variants were previously circulating in wild boars in Sardinia. In the four years preceding the last genotype I isolation (February 2015-January 2019), other eight wild boar isolates were collected, all belonging to p72 genotype I, B602L subgroup X, but none of them presented a sustained genomic deletion. Overall, we observed the deleted virus isolates in Sardinia only in 2019, at the end of a strong eradication campaign, and our data suggest that it might possess an attenuated phenotype in vivo. A better understanding of ASFV evolution in endemic territories might contribute to development of effective control measures against ASF.
Subject(s)
African Swine Fever Virus , African Swine Fever , Genotype , Sus scrofa , Animals , African Swine Fever Virus/genetics , African Swine Fever Virus/physiology , Swine , Italy , African Swine Fever/virology , Genome, Viral , Phenotype , Sequence Deletion , Macrophages/virologyABSTRACT
African swine fever (ASF) is one of the most important and serious contagious hemorrhagic viral diseases affecting domestic pigs and wild boar and is associated with high mortality rates while also having an extensive sanitary and socioeconomic impact on the international trade of animal and swine products. The early detection of the disease is often hampered by inadequate surveillance. Among the surveillance strategies used, passive surveillance of wild boars is considered the most effective method for controlling the African swine fever virus (ASFV). Otherwise, the design of a sufficiently sensitive ASF surveillance system requires a solid understanding of the epidemiology related to the local eco-social context, especially in the absence of virus detection. Even if the number of carcasses needed to demonstrate ASF eradication has been established, the scientific context lacks detail compared to protocols applied in the active search for wild boar carcasses. The aim of this study was to describe the protocol applied in the active search for carcasses, providing detailed information on the number of people and dogs as well as the amount of time and space used within the Mediterranean area. Using a specific tool developed to record, trace, and share field data (the GAIA observer app), a total of 33 active searches for wild boar carcasses were organized during 2021-2023. Most of these searches were planned to find carcasses that had previously been reported by hunters. A total of 24 carcasses were found, with only 2 carcasses not previously reported. The final protocol applied involved four people, with an average speed of 1.5 km/h. When a carcass had been previously reported, about 2 km of distance had to be covered in about 1.5 h to find the carcass, and even less time was spent when a dog (untrained) was present. In conclusion, it can be stated that, when searching for carcasses, solid collaboration with local hunters or other forest visitors is necessary to ensure carcasses are reported. The process involves small groups of experts actively searching for carcasses, possibly with the use of hunting dogs without special training. The data presented could be of valid support for those countries characterized by Mediterranean vegetation that are faced with the need to plan active carcass searches.
Subject(s)
African Swine Fever Virus , African Swine Fever , Humans , Animals , Dogs , Swine , African Swine Fever/epidemiology , African Swine Fever/prevention & control , Commerce , Internationality , Italy/epidemiology , Mediterranean Islands , Sus scrofaABSTRACT
We describe the detection of epizootic hemorrhagic disease virus (EHDV) serotype 8 in cattle farms in Sardinia and Sicily in October-November 2022. The virus has a direct origin in North Africa; its genome is identical (>99.9% nucleotide sequence identity) to EHDV serotype 8 strains detected in Tunisia in 2021.
Subject(s)
Cattle Diseases , Hemorrhagic Disease Virus, Epizootic , Reoviridae Infections , Animals , Cattle , Reoviridae Infections/epidemiology , Reoviridae Infections/veterinary , Serogroup , Hemorrhagic Disease Virus, Epizootic/genetics , Base Sequence , Italy/epidemiology , Cattle Diseases/epidemiologyABSTRACT
African swine fever (ASF) is a devastating infectious disease of domestic pigs and wild boar that is spreading quickly around the world and causing huge economic losses. Although the development of effective vaccines is currently being attempted by several labs, the absence of globally recognized licensed vaccines makes disease prevention and early detection even more crucial. ASF has spread across many countries in Europe and about two years ago affected the Italian susceptible population. In Italy, the first case of ASF genotype II in wild boar dates back to January 2022, while the first outbreak in a domestic pig farm was notified in August 2023. Currently, four clusters of infection are still ongoing in northern (Piedmont-Liguria and Lombardy), central (Lazio), and southern Italy (Calabria and Campania). In early September 2023, the first case of ASFV genotype II was detected in a domestic pig farm in Sardinia, historically affected by genotype I and in the final stage of eradication. Genomic characterization of p72, p54, and I73R/I329L genome regions revealed 100% similarity to those obtained from isolates that have been circulating in mainland Italy since January 2022 and also with international strains. The outbreak was detected and confirmed due to the passive surveillance plan on domestic pig farms put in place to provide evidence on genotype I's absence. Epidemiological investigations suggest 24 August as the most probable time of ASFV genotype II's arrival in Sardinia, likely due to human activities.
Subject(s)
African Swine Fever , Genotype , Animals , African Swine Fever/epidemiology , African Swine Fever/genetics , Italy/epidemiology , Sus scrofa , VaccinesABSTRACT
African swine fever virus (ASFV) is the etiological agent of a lethal disease of domestic pigs and wild boars. ASF threatens the pig industry worldwide due to the lack of a licensed vaccine or treatment. The disease has been endemic for more than 40 years in Sardinia (Italy), but an intense campaign pushed it close to eradication; virus circulation was last detected in wild boars in 2019. In this study, we present a genomic analysis of two ASFV strains isolated in Sardinia from two wild boars during the 2019 hunting season. Both isolates presented a deletion of 4342 base pairs near the 5' end of the genome, encompassing the genes MGF 360-6L, X69R, and MGF 300-1L. The phylogenetic evidence suggests that the deletion recently originated within the Sardinia ecosystem and that it is most likely the result of a non-allelic homologous recombination driven by a microhomology present in most Sardinian ASFV genomes. These results represent a striking example of a genomic feature promoting the rapid evolution of structural variations and plasticity in the ASFV genome. They also raise interesting questions about the functions of the deleted genes and the potential link between the evolutionary timing of the deletion appearance and the eradication campaign.
Subject(s)
African Swine Fever Virus , African Swine Fever , Swine , Animals , Phylogeny , Ecosystem , Sus scrofaABSTRACT
After fifty years of spread in the European continent, the African swine fever (ASF) virus was detected for the first time in the north of Italy (Piedmont) in a wild boar carcass in December, 2021. During the first six months of the epidemic, the central role of wild boars in disease transmission was confirmed by more than 200 outbreaks, which occurred in two different areas declared as infected. The virus entered a domestic pig farm in the second temporal cluster identified in the center of the country (Lazio). Understanding ASF dynamics in wild boars is a prerequisite for preventing the spread, and for designing and applying effective surveillance and control plans. The aim of this work was to describe and evaluate the data collected during the first six months of the ASF epidemic in Italy, and to estimate the basic reproduction number (R0) in order to quantify the extent of disease spread. The R0 estimates were significantly different for the two spatio-temporal clusters of ASF in Italy, and they identified the two infected areas based on the time necessary for the number of cases to double (td) and on an exponential decay model. These results (R0 = 1.41 in Piedmont and 1.66 in Lazio) provide quantitative knowledge on the epidemiology of ASF in Italy. These parameters could represent a fundamental tool for modeling country-specific ASF transmission and for monitoring both the spread and sampling effort needed to detect the disease early.
Subject(s)
African Swine Fever Virus , African Swine Fever , Epidemics , Animals , African Swine Fever/epidemiology , Italy/epidemiology , Sus scrofa , SwineABSTRACT
African swine fever (ASF) is a devastating disease, resulting in the high mortality of domestic and wild pigs, spreading quickly around the world. Ensuring the prevention and early detection of the disease is even more crucial given the absence of licensed vaccines. As suggested by the European Commission, those countries which intend to provide evidence of freedom need to speed up passive surveillance of their wild boar populations. If this kind of surveillance is well-regulated in domestic pig farms, the country-specific activities to be put in place for wild populations need to be set based on wild boar density, hunting bags, the environment, and financial resources. Following the indications of the official EFSA opinion 2021, a practical interpretation of the strategy was implemented based on the failure probabilities of wrongly declaring the freedom of an area even if the disease is still present but undetected. This work aimed at providing a valid, applicative example of an exit strategy based on two different approaches: the first uses the wild boar density to estimate the number of carcasses need to complete the exit strategy, while the second estimates it from the number of wild boar hunted and tested. A practical free access tool, named WBC-Counter, was developed to automatically calculate the number of needed carcasses. The practical example was developed using the ASF data from Sardinia (Italian island). Sardinia is ASF endemic from 43 years, but the last ASFV detection dates back to 2019. The island is under consideration for ASF eradication declaration. The subsequent results provide a practical example for other countries in approaching the EFSA exit strategy in the best choices for its on-field application.
Subject(s)
African Swine Fever Virus , African Swine Fever , African Swine Fever/diagnosis , African Swine Fever/epidemiology , African Swine Fever/prevention & control , Animals , Farms , Italy/epidemiology , Sus scrofa , SwineABSTRACT
In the years 2020-2022, a survey was carried out with the aim of controlling the entomofauna present in seven Sardinian snail farms. The sampling was carried out during the spring-summer and autumn-winter periods, corresponding to the production cycles of the Helix aspersa snails (Müller, 1774), the species most frequently bred in snail farms. The samples were taken from farms located in different areas of the region. For the predatory species found in most of the farms, 38% of the individuals were of the Silpha tristis Illiger, 1798 (Coleoptera: Silphidae) species, 32% were Ocypus olens Müller, 1764 (Coleoptera: Staphylinidae), and 24% were Carabus (Macrothorax) morbillosus constantinus Kraatz, 1899 (Coleoptera: Carabidae). The Lampyris sardiniae Geisthardt, 1987 (Coleoptera: Lampyridae) and Licinus punctatulus Fabricius, 1792 (Coleoptera: Carabidae) species were equally detected in 3% of the farms. In some farms, the predatory species S. tristis and C.morbillosus costantinus had caused the death of several snails. This preliminary study aimed to provide a first evaluation and description of the critical issues facing the snails present in seven Sardinian snail farms. First, a specific survey of the entomofauna during two observational periods (i.e., the spring-summer and autumn-winter periods) was conducted. Context-specific description and evaluation will allow providing valid information for Italian and European heliciculture farms to ensure the well-being of the mollusks. The presence of predatory species in snail farms is not easy to control, but some precautions could be useful to avoid massive colonization.
ABSTRACT
This study was conducted to acquire knowledge on the epidemiology and ecology of some zoonotic agents in snails. Chemical and microbiological analysis was carried out on 46 samples of snails belonging to the species of Helix aspersa and Helix (Eobania) vermiculata. The association between heavy metals and wild snails, a native consumer product in the Region of Sardinia, was determined. The molecular characterisation of Listeria monocytogenes virulence genes has shown a genetic profile that deserves more attention for the improvement of surveillance and risk prevention. Specimens of H. vermiculata showed higher concentrations of cadmium (M=0.80±0.56 mg/kg) than H. aspersa (M=0.61±0.17 mg /kg). A further objective was to determine whether the samples showed significant differences from the point of view of secretion characterisation, in terms of protein content, and to identify species-specific correlations and possible relationships with the environment. The presence of Salmonella enterica sub.sp houtenae (6,14: z4, z23) and Salmonella enterica subsp diarizonae (47: k: e, n, z15) (1 sample), Listeria monocytogenes (2 samples) with Molecular characterization of virulence genes together with the measurement of heavy metals in samples of wild snails has shown a health and hygiene profile that would deserve greater attention for the improvement of the surveillance and prevention of microbiological and chemical risk in such products which currently show a tendency towards increase in consumption.
ABSTRACT
Cystic Echinococcosis (CE) is a severe zoonosis caused by the larval stage of the tapeworm Echinococcus granulosus. These parasites are naturally transmitted between canid definitive hosts that harbour the adult stage in the intestine, and mainly ungulate intermediate hosts, with larval cysts developing in their internal organs. The close coexistence between dog and sheep with incorrect hygiene management are the most important factors for the persistence of this parasitic pathology. The Educational Farms (EF) are farms and agritourisms suitably equipped to carry out training activities for people interested in farm practices and agricultural processing, in particular student groups. Public attendance of farms represents a new potential risk factor for the zoonoses transmission. Consumption of contaminated food and water in combination with contact or playing with domestic dogs (Canis familiaris) are possible routes of zoonoses human infection. In fact, Echinococcus spp. eggs may persist in the environment up to several months at low temperatures and moist conditions, having the chance of contaminating different matrices and surfaces. The aim of this investigation was to study environmental contamination by parasitic elements as a risk for zoonoses, such as Echinococcus spp. A total of 116 samples (35 of water, 33 of soil, 23 of vegetables, 25 of dog faeces) were collected in 30 EF in Sardinia. Samples were subjected to biomolecular investigation for the research of specific gene sequences of Echinococcus granulosus, Echinococcus multilocularis and Taenia spp. The study allowed to identify eight positive EF due to the presence of Echinococcusgranulosus in eight dog faeces samples and one positive EF due to the presence of Taenia spp. in a water sample. The work has allowed to develop and harmonise the diagnostic methods and operating protocols essential for controlling the spread of the CE to create "One Health" intervention plans in high endemic areas through the implementation of SOP (standard operating procedures) for monitoring the pathology in animals, humans and environment.
ABSTRACT
African swine fever virus (ASFV) is the etiological agent of the devastating disease African swine fever (ASF), for which there is currently no licensed vaccine or treatment available. ASF is defined as one of the most serious animal diseases identified to date, due to its global spread in regions of Africa, Europe and Asia, causing massive economic losses. On the Italian island of Sardinia, the disease has been endemic since 1978, although the last control measures put in place achieved a significant reduction in ASF, and the virus has been absent from circulation since April 2019. Like many large DNA viruses, ASFV mutates at a relatively slow rate. However, the limited availability of whole-genome sequences from spatial-localized outbreaks makes it difficult to explore the small-scale genetic structure of these ASFV outbreaks. It is also unclear if the genetic variability within outbreaks can be captured in a handful of sequences, or if larger sequencing efforts can improve phylogenetic reconstruction and evolutionary or epidemiological inference. The aim of this study was to investigate the phylogenetic patterns of ASFV outbreaks between 1978 and 2018 in Sardinia, in order to characterize the epidemiological dynamics of the viral strains circulating in this Mediterranean island. To reach this goal, 58 new whole genomes of ASFV isolates were obtained, which represents the largest ASFV whole-genome sequencing effort to date. We provided a complete description of the genomic diversity of ASFV in terms of nucleotide mutations and small and large indels among the isolates collected during the outbreaks. The new sequences capture more than twice the genomic and phylogenetic diversity of all the previously published Sardinian sequences. The extra genomic diversity increases the resolution of the phylogenetic reconstruction, enabling us to dissect, for the first time, the genetic substructure of the outbreak. We found multiple ASFV subclusters within the phylogeny of the Sardinian epidemic, some of which coexisted in space and time.
Subject(s)
African Swine Fever Virus/genetics , African Swine Fever/epidemiology , African Swine Fever/genetics , African Swine Fever Virus/pathogenicity , Animals , Base Sequence/genetics , Biological Evolution , DNA, Viral/genetics , Disease Outbreaks/prevention & control , Endemic Diseases , Evolution, Molecular , Genetic Variation/genetics , Genome, Viral/genetics , Genomics/methods , Genotype , Italy/epidemiology , Phylogeny , Sequence Analysis, DNA/methods , Swine , Viral Proteins/genetics , Whole Genome Sequencing/methodsABSTRACT
African swine fever (ASF) is a viral disease of suids that frequently leads to death. There are neither licensed vaccines nor treatments available, and even though humans are not susceptible to the disease, the serious socio-economic consequences associated with ASF have made it one of the most serious animal diseases of the last century. In this context, prevention and early detection play a key role in controlling the disease and avoiding losses in the pig value chain. Target biosecurity measures are a strong strategy against ASF virus (ASFV) incursions in farms nowadays, but to be efficient, these measures must be well-defined and easy to implement, both in commercial holdings and in the backyard sector. Furthermore, the backyard sector is of great importance in low-income settings, mainly for social and cultural practices that are highly specific to certain areas and communities. These contexts need to be addressed when authorities decide upon the provisions that should be applied in the case of infection or decide to combine them with strict preventive measures to mitigate the risk of virus spread. The need for a deeper understanding of the smallholder context is essential to prevent ASFV incursion and spread. Precise indications for pig breeding and risk estimation for ASFV introduction, spread and maintenance, taking into account the fact that these recommendations would be inapplicable in some contexts, are the keys for efficient target control measures. The aim of this work is to describe the 305 outbreaks that occurred in domestic pigs in Sardinia during the last epidemic season (2010-2018) in depth, providing essential features associated with intensive and backyard farms where the outbreaks occurred. In addition, the study estimates the average of secondary cases by kernel transmission network. Considering the current absence of ASF outbreaks in domestic pig farms in Sardinia since 2018, this work is a valid tool to specifically estimate the risk associated with different farm types and update our knowledge in this area.
ABSTRACT
African swine fever (ASF) remains the most serious pig infectious disease, and its persistence in domestic pigs and wild boar (WB) is a threat for the global industry. The surveillance of WB plays a central role in controlling the disease and rapidly detecting new cases. As we are close to eradicating ASF, the need to find any possible pockets of infection is even more important. In this context, passive surveillance is the method of choice for effective surveillance in WB. Considering the time and economic resources related to passive surveillance, to prioritize these activities, we developed a standardized methodology able to identify areas where WB surveillance should be focused on. Using GIS-technology, we divided a specific Sardinian infected area into 1 km2 grids (a total of 3953 grids). Variables related to WB density, ASF cases during the last three years, sex and age of animals, and the type of land were associated with each grid. Epidemiological models were used to identify the areas with both a lack of information and an high risk of hidden ASFV persistence. The results led to the creation of a graphic tool providing specific indications about areas where surveillance should be a priority.
ABSTRACT
African swine fever virus (ASFV), the cause of a devastating disease affecting domestic and wild pigs, has been present in Sardinia since 1978. In the framework of the regional ASF eradication plan, 4484 illegal pigs were culled between December 2017 and February 2020. The highest disease prevalence was observed in the municipality with the highest free-ranging pig density, and culling actions drastically reduced ASFV circulation among these animals. ASFV-antibody were detected in 36.7% of tested animals, which were apparently healthy, thus, the circulation of low-virulence ASFV isolates was hypothesized. ASFV genome was detected in 53 out of 2726 tested animals, and virus isolation was achieved in two distinct culling actions. Two ASFV haemadsorbing strains were isolated from antibody-positive apparently healthy pigs: 55234/18 and 103917/18. Typing analysis revealed that both isolates belong to p72 genotype I, B602L subgroup X; phylogenetic analysis based on whole genome sequencing data showed that they were closely related to Sardinian ASFV strains collected since 2010, especially 22653/Ca/2014. Our data suggested the absence of immune-escaped ASFV variants circulating among free-ranging pigs, indicating that other elements contributed to virus circulation among these animals. Understanding factors behind disease persistence in endemic settings might contribute to developing effective countermeasures against this disease.
ABSTRACT
African swine fever (ASF) severely threatens the swine industry worldwide, given its spread and the absence of an available licensed vaccine, and has caused severe economic losses. Its persistence in wild boar (WB), longer than in domestic pig farms, and the knowledge gaps in ASF epidemiology hinder ASF virus (ASFV) eradication. Even in areas where disease is effectively controlled and ASFV is no longer detected, declaring eradication is difficult as seropositive WBs may still be detected. The aim of this work was to estimate the main ASF epidemiological parameters specific for the north of Sardinia, Italy. The estimated basic (R0) and effective (Re) reproduction numbers demonstrate that the ASF epidemic is declining and under control with an R0 of 1.139 (95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.123-1.153) and Re of 0.802 (95% CI = 0.612-0.992). In the last phases of an epidemic, these estimates are crucial tools for identifying the intensity of interventions required to definitively eradicate the disease. This approach is useful to understand if and when the detection of residual seropositive WB is no longer associated with any further ASFV circulation.
ABSTRACT
December 2019 saw a novel coronavirus (COVID-19) from China quickly spread globally. Currently, COVID-19, defined as the new pandemic by the World Health Organization (WHO), has reached over 750,000 confirmed cases worldwide. The virus began to spread in Italy from the 22nd February, and the number of related cases is still increasing. Furthermore, given that a relevant proportion of infected people need hospitalization in Intensive Care Units, this may be a crucial issue for National Healthcare System's capacity. WHO underlines the importance of specific disease regional estimates. Because of this, Italy aimed to put in place proportioned and controlled measures, and to guarantee adequate funding to both increase the number of ICU beds and increase production of personal protective equipment. Our aim is to investigate the current COVID-19 epidemiological context in Sardinia region (Italy) and to estimate the transmission parameters using a stochastic model to establish the number of infected, recovered, and deceased people expected. Based on available data from official Italian and regional sources, we describe the distribution of infected cases during the period between 2nd and 15th March 2020. To better reflect the actual spread of COVID-19 in Sardinia based on data from 15th March (first Sardinian declared outbreak), two Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered-Dead (SIRD) models have been developed, describing the best and worst scenarios. We believe that our findings represent a valid contribution to better understand the epidemiological context of COVID-19 in Sardinia. Our analysis can help health authorities and policymakers to address the right interventions to deal with the rapidly expanding health emergency.
Subject(s)
COVID-19/epidemiology , Hospital Bed Capacity/statistics & numerical data , Intensive Care Units/trends , Models, Statistical , Adult , Humans , Intensive Care Units/economics , Intensive Care Units/statistics & numerical data , Italy/epidemiology , Middle Aged , Personal Protective Equipment/economics , SARS-CoV-2/isolation & purificationABSTRACT
African swine fever (ASF) is a highly contagious disease of domestic pigs and wild boars (WBs). Without a vaccine, early antibody and antigen detection and rapid diagnosis are crucial for the effective prevention of the disease and the employment of control measures. In Sardinia, where 3 different suid populations coexisted closely for a long time, the disease persists since 1978. The recent ASF eradication plan involves more stringent measures to combat free-ranging pigs and any kind of illegality in the pig industry. However, critical issues such as the low level of hunter cooperation with veterinary services and the time required for ASF detection in the WBs killed during the hunting season still remain. Considering the need to deliver true ASF negative carcasses as early as possible, this study focuses on the evaluation and validation of a duplex pen-side test that simultaneously detects antibodies and antigens specific to ASF virus, to improve molecular diagnosis under field conditions. The main goal was to establish the specificity of the two pen-side tests performed simultaneously and to determine their ability to detect the true ASF negative carcasses among the hunted WBs. Blood and organ samples of the WBs hunted during the 2018/2019 hunting seasons were obtained. A total of 160 animals were tested using the pen-side kit test; samples were collected for virological and serological analyses. A specificity of 98% was observed considering the official laboratory tests as gold standards. The new diagnostic techniques could facilitate faster and cost-effective control of the disease.
Subject(s)
African Swine Fever Virus/isolation & purification , African Swine Fever/diagnosis , Cost-Benefit Analysis , Diagnostic Tests, Routine/veterinary , Animals , Diagnostic Tests, Routine/economics , Italy , SwineABSTRACT
From more than 40 years African swine fever (ASF) is endemic in Sardinia. Historically, areas at higher risk are located throughout some inland parts of this island where domestic pigs are still illegally kept in semi-wild conditions, living in contact with the local wild boar population, thereby creating perfect conditions for disease endemicity. A new eradication plan (EP-ASF15-18) has been ongoing for the past 3 years, based on a comprehensive strategy adapted to the local situation and focused on strong actions on domestic pig farms, wild boars (WB), and the third Sardinian typical involved population [illegal free-ranging pigs (FRPs)]. A fundamental aspect of the plan is the classification of pig farms as "controlled" or "certified," based on clinical, structural, and biosecurity characteristics. The eradication plan also provides for strong action against illegal farms and pig meat marketing channels. In addition, this plan establishes specific control measures for WB hunting and ASF checks. Each control strategy is specifically based on municipality risk level, to focus actions and resources on areas at higher risk of endemic or re-emerging ASF. Thus, precise risk classification is fundamental to this goal. The aim of the present work was to establish an ASF risk index, to provide a summary measure of the risk level in the Sardinian municipalities. This synthetic measure can express the different aspects of a multidimensional phenomenon with a single numerical value, facilitating territorial and temporal comparisons. To this end, retrospective data (years 2011-2018) were used. The ASF risk index is the result of the algorithmic combination of numerical elementary indicators: disease prevalence in the suid populations, WB compliance with EP-ASF15-18, domestic pig compliance with EP-ASF15-18, and presence of FRPs. A negative binomial regression model has been applied and predictors calculated to obtain a risk index for each municipality. The result of the risk analysis was discussed and considered according to expert opinion and consensus. The results of this study, expressed as risk score and classified into five risk levels, can be used to help define actions to be carried out in each Sardinian municipality, according to the risk assessment for the territory.
ABSTRACT
[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0217367.].