A clinical predictive model of chronic kidney disease in children with posterior urethral valves.

BACKGROUND: Posterior urethral valves (PUVs) are associated with severe consequences to the urinary tract and are a common cause of chronic kidney disease (CKD). The aim of this study was to develop clinical predictive model of CKD in a cohort of patients with PUVs. METHODS: In this retrospective cohort study, 173 patients with PUVs were systematically followed up at a single tertiary unit. The primary endpoint was CKD ≥ stage 3. Survival analyses were performed by Cox regression proportional hazard models with time-fixed and time-dependent covariables. RESULTS: Mean follow-up time was 83 months (SD, 70 months). Sixty-five children (37.6%) developed CKD stage ≥ 3. After adjustment by the time-dependent Cox model, baseline creatinine, nadir creatinine, hypertension, and proteinuria remained as predictors of the endpoint. After adjustment by time-fixed model, three variables were predictors of CKD ≥ stage 3: baseline creatinine, nadir creatinine, and proteinuria. The prognostic risk score was divided into three categories: low-risk (69 children, 39.9%), medium-risk (45, 26%), and high-risk (59, 34.1%). The probability of CKD ≥ stage 3 at 10 years age was estimated as 6%, 40%, and 70% for patients assigned to the low-risk, medium-risk, and high-risk groups, respectively (P < 0.001). The main limitation was the preclusion of some relevant variables, especially bladder dysfunction, that might contribute to a more accurate prediction of renal outcome. CONCLUSION: The model accurately predicts the risk of CKD in PUVs patients. This model could be clinically useful in applying timely intervention and in preventing the impairment of renal function.

A clinical predictive model of renal injury in children with congenital solitary functioning kidney.

BACKGROUND: Solitary functioning kidney (SFK) is an important condition in the spectrum of congenital anomalies of the kidney and urinary tract. The aim of this study was to describe the risk factors for renal injury in a cohort of patients with congenital SFK. METHODS: In this retrospective cohort study, 162 patients with SFK were systematically followed up (median, 8.5 years). The primary endpoint was time until the occurrence of a composite event of renal injury, which includes proteinuria, hypertension, and chronic kidney disease (CKD). A predictive model was developed using Cox proportional hazards model and evaluated by c statistics. RESULTS: Among 162 children with SFK included in the analysis, 132 (81.5%) presented multicystic dysplastic kidney, 20 (12.3%) renal hypodysplasia, and 10 (6.2%) unilateral renal agenesis. Of 162 patients included in the analysis, 10 (6.2%) presented persistent proteinuria, 11 (6.8%) had hypertension, 9 (5.6%) developed CKD stage ≥ 3, and 18 (11%) developed the composite outcome. After adjustment by the Cox model, three variables remained as independent predictors of the composite event: creatinine (HR, 3.93; P < 0.001), recurrent urinary tract infection (UTI) (HR, 5.05; P = 0.002), and contralateral renal length at admission (HR, 0.974; P = 0.002). The probability of the composite event at 10 years of age was estimated as 3%, 11%, and 56% for patients assigned to the low-risk, medium-risk, and high-risk groups, respectively (P < 0.001). CONCLUSION: Our findings have shown an overall low risk of renal injury for most of infants with congenital SFK. Nevertheless, our prediction model enabled the identification of a subgroup of patients with an increased risk of renal injury over time.