Detecting forest response to droughts with global observations of vegetation water content.

Droughts in a warming climate have become more common and more extreme, making understanding forest responses to water stress increasingly pressing. Analysis of water stress in trees has long focused on water potential in xylem and leaves, which influences stomatal closure and water flow through the soil-plant-atmosphere continuum. At the same time, changes of vegetation water content (VWC) are linked to a range of tree responses, including fluxes of water and carbon, mortality, flammability, and more. Unlike water potential, which requires demanding in situ measurements, VWC can be retrieved from remote sensing measurements, particularly at microwave frequencies using radar and radiometry. Here, we highlight key frontiers through which VWC has the potential to significantly increase our understanding of forest responses to water stress. To validate remote sensing observations of VWC at landscape scale and to better relate them to data assimilation model parameters, we introduce an ecosystem-scale analog of the pressure-volume curve, the non-linear relationship between average leaf or branch water potential and water content commonly used in plant hydraulics. The sources of variability in these ecosystem-scale pressure-volume curves and their relationship to forest response to water stress are discussed. We further show to what extent diel, seasonal, and decadal dynamics of VWC reflect variations in different processes relating the tree response to water stress. VWC can also be used for inferring belowground conditions-which are difficult to impossible to observe directly. Lastly, we discuss how a dedicated geostationary spaceborne observational system for VWC, when combined with existing datasets, can capture diel and seasonal water dynamics to advance the science and applications of global forest vulnerability to future droughts.

Effects of Scarification, Phytohormones, Soil Type, and Warming on the Germination and/or Seedling Performance of Three Tamaulipan Thornscrub Forest Species.

The Tamaulipan thornforests of south Texas and northeast Mexico are an ecologically and economically important conservation hotspot. Thornforest restoration is limited by native tree and shrub seedling availability for planting. Seedling shortages arise from low seed availability and knowledge gaps regarding best practices for germinating and growing the 70+ thornforest species desired for restoration plantings. To fill key knowledge gaps, we investigated three ecologically important thornforest species with low or highly variable germination or seedling survival rates: Ebenopsis ebano, Cordia boissieri, and Zanthoxylum fagara. For each, we quantified the effects of different dosages of chemical seed treatments used to promote germination (sulfuric acid, SA; gibberellic acid, GA; indole-3-butyric acid, IBA) on germination likelihood and timing. We also quantified the effects that these chemical seed treatments, soil media mixture type, and soil warming had on seedling survival, growth, and root morphology. Ebenopsis germination peaked (>90%) with 40-60 min SA treatment. Cordia germination peaked (40%) with 100 mg/L GA treatment. Zanthoxylum germination was negligible across all treatments. Seed molding was rare but stirring during SA treatment reduced Ebenopsis molding by 4%. Ebenopsis seedling survival, height, leaf count, and root morphology were minimally affected by seed treatments, generally reduced by warming, and influenced by soil mix, which also mediated responses to warming. These results suggest improvements to existing practices that could increase Ebenopsis germination by 10-20% and potentially double Cordia germination.

Understanding water and energy fluxes in the Amazonia: Lessons from an observation-model intercomparison.

Tropical forests are an important part of global water and energy cycles, but the mechanisms that drive seasonality of their land-atmosphere exchanges have proven challenging to capture in models. Here, we (1) report the seasonality of fluxes of latent heat (LE), sensible heat (H), and outgoing short and longwave radiation at four diverse tropical forest sites across Amazonia-along the equator from the Caxiuanã and Tapajós National Forests in the eastern Amazon to a forest near Manaus, and from the equatorial zone to the southern forest in Reserva Jaru; (2) investigate how vegetation and climate influence these fluxes; and (3) evaluate land surface model performance by comparing simulations to observations. We found that previously identified failure of models to capture observed dry-season increases in evapotranspiration (ET) was associated with model overestimations of (1) magnitude and seasonality of Bowen ratios (relative to aseasonal observations in which sensible was only 20%-30% of the latent heat flux) indicating model exaggerated water limitation, (2) canopy emissivity and reflectance (albedo was only 10%-15% of incoming solar radiation, compared to 0.15%-0.22% simulated), and (3) vegetation temperatures (due to underestimation of dry-season ET and associated cooling). These partially compensating model-observation discrepancies (e.g., higher temperatures expected from excess Bowen ratios were partially ameliorated by brighter leaves and more interception/evaporation) significantly biased seasonal model estimates of net radiation (Rn ), the key driver of water and energy fluxes (LE ~ 0.6 Rn and H ~ 0.15 Rn ), though these biases varied among sites and models. A better representation of energy-related parameters associated with dynamic phenology (e.g., leaf optical properties, canopy interception, and skin temperature) could improve simulations and benchmarking of current vegetation-atmosphere exchange and reduce uncertainty of regional and global biogeochemical models.

Hydraulic traits explain differential responses of Amazonian forests to the 2015 El Niño-induced drought.

Reducing uncertainties in the response of tropical forests to global change requires understanding how intra- and interannual climatic variability selects for different species, community functional composition and ecosystem functioning, so that the response to climatic events of differing frequency and severity can be predicted. Here we present an extensive dataset of hydraulic traits of dominant species in two tropical Amazon forests with contrasting precipitation regimes - low seasonality forest (LSF) and high seasonality forest (HSF) - and relate them to community and ecosystem response to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) of 2015. Hydraulic traits indicated higher drought tolerance in the HSF than in the LSF. Despite more intense drought and lower plant water potentials in HSF during the 2015-ENSO, greater xylem embolism resistance maintained similar hydraulic safety margin as in LSF. This likely explains how ecosystem-scale whole-forest canopy conductance at HSF maintained a similar response to atmospheric drought as at LSF, despite their water transport systems operating at different water potentials. Our results indicate that contrasting precipitation regimes (at seasonal and interannual time scales) select for assemblies of hydraulic traits and taxa at the community level, which may have a significant role in modulating forest drought response at ecosystem scales.

A heuristic classification of woody plants based on contrasting shade and drought strategies.

Woody plants vary in their adaptations to drought and shade. For a better prediction of vegetation responses to drought and shade within dynamic global vegetation models, it is critical to group species into functional types with similar adaptations. One of the key challenges is that the adaptations are generally determined by a large number of plant traits that may not be available for a large number of species. In this study, we present two heuristic woody plant groups that were separated using cluster analysis in a three-dimensional trait-environment space based on three key metrics for each species: mean xylem embolism resistance, shade tolerance and habitat aridity. The two heuristic groups separate these species into tolerators and avoiders. The tolerators either rely on their high embolism resistance to tolerate drought in arid habitats (e.g., Juniperus and Prunus) or rely on high shade tolerance to withstand shaded conditions in wet habitats (e.g., Picea, Abies and Acer). In contrast, all avoiders have low embolism resistance and low shade tolerance. In arid habitats, avoiders tend to minimize catastrophic embolism (e.g., most Pinus species) while in wet habitats, they may survive despite low shade tolerance (e.g., Betula, Populus, Alnus and Salix). Because our approach links traits to the environmental conditions, we expect it could be a promising framework for predicting changes in species composition, and therefore ecosystem function, under changing environmental conditions.

Vegetation demographics in Earth System Models: A review of progress and priorities.

Numerous current efforts seek to improve the representation of ecosystem ecology and vegetation demographic processes within Earth System Models (ESMs). These developments are widely viewed as an important step in developing greater realism in predictions of future ecosystem states and fluxes. Increased realism, however, leads to increased model complexity, with new features raising a suite of ecological questions that require empirical constraints. Here, we review the developments that permit the representation of plant demographics in ESMs, and identify issues raised by these developments that highlight important gaps in ecological understanding. These issues inevitably translate into uncertainty in model projections but also allow models to be applied to new processes and questions concerning the dynamics of real-world ecosystems. We argue that stronger and more innovative connections to data, across the range of scales considered, are required to address these gaps in understanding. The development of first-generation land surface models as a unifying framework for ecophysiological understanding stimulated much research into plant physiological traits and gas exchange. Constraining predictions at ecologically relevant spatial and temporal scales will require a similar investment of effort and intensified inter-disciplinary communication.

Partitioning controls on Amazon forest photosynthesis between environmental and biotic factors at hourly to interannual timescales.

Gross ecosystem productivity (GEP) in tropical forests varies both with the environment and with biotic changes in photosynthetic infrastructure, but our understanding of the relative effects of these factors across timescales is limited. Here, we used a statistical model to partition the variability of seven years of eddy covariance-derived GEP in a central Amazon evergreen forest into two main causes: variation in environmental drivers (solar radiation, diffuse light fraction, and vapor pressure deficit) that interact with model parameters that govern photosynthesis and biotic variation in canopy photosynthetic light-use efficiency associated with changes in the parameters themselves. Our fitted model was able to explain most of the variability in GEP at hourly (R2  = 0.77) to interannual (R2  = 0.80) timescales. At hourly timescales, we found that 75% of observed GEP variability could be attributed to environmental variability. When aggregating GEP to the longer timescales (daily, monthly, and yearly), however, environmental variation explained progressively less GEP variability: At monthly timescales, it explained only 3%, much less than biotic variation in canopy photosynthetic light-use efficiency, which accounted for 63%. These results challenge modeling approaches that assume GEP is primarily controlled by the environment at both short and long timescales. Our approach distinguishing biotic from environmental variability can help to resolve debates about environmental limitations to tropical forest photosynthesis. For example, we found that biotically regulated canopy photosynthetic light-use efficiency (associated with leaf phenology) increased with sunlight during dry seasons (consistent with light but not water limitation of canopy development) but that realized GEP was nonetheless lower relative to its potential efficiency during dry than wet seasons (consistent with water limitation of photosynthesis in given assemblages of leaves). This work highlights the importance of accounting for differential regulation of GEP at different timescales and of identifying the underlying feedbacks and adaptive mechanisms.

Do dynamic global vegetation models capture the seasonality of carbon fluxes in the Amazon basin? A data-model intercomparison.

To predict forest response to long-term climate change with high confidence requires that dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) be successfully tested against ecosystem response to short-term variations in environmental drivers, including regular seasonal patterns. Here, we used an integrated dataset from four forests in the Brasil flux network, spanning a range of dry-season intensities and lengths, to determine how well four state-of-the-art models (IBIS, ED2, JULES, and CLM3.5) simulated the seasonality of carbon exchanges in Amazonian tropical forests. We found that most DGVMs poorly represented the annual cycle of gross primary productivity (GPP), of photosynthetic capacity (Pc), and of other fluxes and pools. Models simulated consistent dry-season declines in GPP in the equatorial Amazon (Manaus K34, Santarem K67, and Caxiuanã CAX); a contrast to observed GPP increases. Model simulated dry-season GPP reductions were driven by an external environmental factor, 'soil water stress' and consequently by a constant or decreasing photosynthetic infrastructure (Pc), while observed dry-season GPP resulted from a combination of internal biological (leaf-flush and abscission and increased Pc) and environmental (incoming radiation) causes. Moreover, we found models generally overestimated observed seasonal net ecosystem exchange (NEE) and respiration (Re ) at equatorial locations. In contrast, a southern Amazon forest (Jarú RJA) exhibited dry-season declines in GPP and Re consistent with most DGVMs simulations. While water limitation was represented in models and the primary driver of seasonal photosynthesis in southern Amazonia, changes in internal biophysical processes, light-harvesting adaptations (e.g., variations in leaf area index (LAI) and increasing leaf-level assimilation rate related to leaf demography), and allocation lags between leaf and wood, dominated equatorial Amazon carbon flux dynamics and were deficient or absent from current model formulations. Correctly simulating flux seasonality at tropical forests requires a greater understanding and the incorporation of internal biophysical mechanisms in future model developments.

After more than a decade of soil moisture deficit, tropical rainforest trees maintain photosynthetic capacity, despite increased leaf respiration.

Determining climate change feedbacks from tropical rainforests requires an understanding of how carbon gain through photosynthesis and loss through respiration will be altered. One of the key changes that tropical rainforests may experience under future climate change scenarios is reduced soil moisture availability. In this study we examine if and how both leaf photosynthesis and leaf dark respiration acclimate following more than 12 years of experimental soil moisture deficit, via a through-fall exclusion experiment (TFE) in an eastern Amazonian rainforest. We find that experimentally drought-stressed trees and taxa maintain the same maximum leaf photosynthetic capacity as trees in corresponding control forest, independent of their susceptibility to drought-induced mortality. We hypothesize that photosynthetic capacity is maintained across all treatments and taxa to take advantage of short-lived periods of high moisture availability, when stomatal conductance (gs ) and photosynthesis can increase rapidly, potentially compensating for reduced assimilate supply at other times. Average leaf dark respiration (Rd ) was elevated in the TFE-treated forest trees relative to the control by 28.2 ± 2.8% (mean ± one standard error). This mean Rd value was dominated by a 48.5 ± 3.6% increase in the Rd of drought-sensitive taxa, and likely reflects the need for additional metabolic support required for stress-related repair, and hydraulic or osmotic maintenance processes. Following soil moisture deficit that is maintained for several years, our data suggest that changes in respiration drive greater shifts in the canopy carbon balance, than changes in photosynthetic capacity.

Confronting model predictions of carbon fluxes with measurements of Amazon forests subjected to experimental drought.

Considerable uncertainty surrounds the fate of Amazon rainforests in response to climate change. Here, carbon (C) flux predictions of five terrestrial biosphere models (Community Land Model version 3.5 (CLM3.5), Ecosystem Demography model version 2.1 (ED2), Integrated BIosphere Simulator version 2.6.4 (IBIS), Joint UK Land Environment Simulator version 2.1 (JULES) and Simple Biosphere model version 3 (SiB3)) and a hydrodynamic terrestrial ecosystem model (the Soil-Plant-Atmosphere (SPA) model) were evaluated against measurements from two large-scale Amazon drought experiments. Model predictions agreed with the observed C fluxes in the control plots of both experiments, but poorly replicated the responses to the drought treatments. Most notably, with the exception of ED2, the models predicted negligible reductions in aboveground biomass in response to the drought treatments, which was in contrast to an observed c. 20% reduction at both sites. For ED2, the timing of the decline in aboveground biomass was accurate, but the magnitude was too high for one site and too low for the other. Three key findings indicate critical areas for future research and model development. First, the models predicted declines in autotrophic respiration under prolonged drought in contrast to measured increases at one of the sites. Secondly, models lacking a phenological response to drought introduced bias in the sensitivity of canopy productivity and respiration to drought. Thirdly, the phenomenological water-stress functions used by the terrestrial biosphere models to represent the effects of soil moisture on stomatal conductance yielded unrealistic diurnal and seasonal responses to drought.