Predicting Hospital Admission and Prolonged Length of Stay in Older Adults in the Emergency Department: The PRO-AGE Scoring System.

STUDY OBJECTIVE: We developed prediction models for hospital admission and prolonged length of stay in older adults admitted from the emergency department (ED). METHODS: This was a retrospective cohort study of patients aged 70 years or older who visited a geriatric ED in Brazil (N=5,025 visits). We randomly allocated participants to derivation and validation samples in a 2:1 ratio. We then selected 21 variables based on their clinical relevance and generated models to predict the following outcomes: hospital admission and prolonged length of stay, defined as the upper tertile of hospital stay. We used backward stepwise logistic regressions to select our final predictors and developed risk scoring systems based on the relative values of their ß coefficients. RESULTS: Overall, 57% of the participants were women, 31% were hospitalized, and 1% died in the hospital. The upper tertile of hospital stay was greater than 7 days. Hospital admission was best predicted by a model including male sex, aged 90 years or older, hospitalization in the previous 6 months, weight loss greater than or equal to 5% in the previous year, acute mental alteration, and acute functional decline. The prediction of prolonged length of stay retained the same variables, except male sex, which was substituted for fatigue. The final scoring system reached areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.74 for hospital admission and 0.79 for prolonged length of stay, and their accuracies were confirmed in the validation models. CONCLUSION: The PRO-AGE scoring system predicted hospital admission and prolonged length of stay in older adults with good accuracy, using a simple approach and only 7 easily obtained clinical variables.

Association between delirium superimposed on dementia and mortality in hospitalized older adults: A prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Hospitalized older adults with preexisting dementia have increased risk of having delirium, but little is known regarding the effect of delirium superimposed on dementia (DSD) on the outcomes of these patients. Our aim was to investigate the association between DSD and hospital mortality and 12-mo mortality in hospitalized older adults. METHODS AND FINDINGS: This was a prospective cohort study completed in the geriatric ward of a university hospital in São Paulo, Brazil. We included 1,409 hospitalizations of acutely ill patients aged 60 y and over from January 2009 to June 2015. Main variables and measures included dementia and dementia severity (Informant Questionnaire on Cognitive Decline in the Elderly, Clinical Dementia Rating) and delirium (Confusion Assessment Method). Primary outcomes were time to death in the hospital and time to death in 12 mo (for the discharged sample). Comprehensive geriatric assessment was performed at admission, and additional clinical data were documented upon death or discharge. Cases were categorized into four groups (no delirium or dementia, dementia alone, delirium alone, and DSD). The no delirium/dementia group was defined as the referent category for comparisons, and multivariate analyses were performed using Cox proportional hazards models adjusted for possible confounders (sociodemographic information, medical history and physical examination data, functional and nutritional status, polypharmacy, and laboratory covariates). Overall, 61% were women and 39% had dementia, with a mean age of 80 y. Dementia alone was observed in 13% of the cases, with delirium alone in 21% and DSD in 26% of the cases. In-hospital mortality was 8% for patients without delirium or dementia, 12% for patients with dementia alone, 29% for patients with delirium alone, and 32% for DSD patients (Pearson Chi-square = 112, p < 0.001). DSD and delirium alone were independently associated with in-hospital mortality, with respective hazard ratios (HRs) of 2.14 (95% CI = 1.33-3.45, p = 0.002) and 2.72 (95% CI = 1.77-4.18, p < 0.001). Dementia alone did not have a significant statistical association with in-hospital mortality (HR = 1.69, 95% CI = 0.72-2.30, p = 0.385). Finally, while 24% of the patients died after discharge, 12-mo mortality was not associated with dementia or delirium in any of the diagnostic groups (DSD: HR = 1.15, 95% CI = 0.79-1.68, p = 0.463; delirium alone: HR = 1.05, 95% CI = 0.71-1.54, p = 0.810; dementia alone: HR = 1.19, 95% CI = 0.79-1.78, p = 0.399). Limitations to this study include not exploring the effects of the duration and severity of delirium on the outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: DSD and delirium alone were independently associated with a worse prognosis in hospitalized older adults. Health care professionals should recognize the importance of delirium as a predictor of hospital mortality regardless of the coexistence with dementia.

Comprehensive geriatric assessment predicts mortality and adverse outcomes in hospitalized older adults.

BACKGROUND: Comprehensive Geriatric Assessment (CGA) provides detailed information on clinical, functional and cognitive aspects of older patients and is especially useful for assessing frail individuals. Although a large proportion of hospitalized older adults demonstrate a high level of complexity, CGA was not developed specifically for this setting. Our aim was to evaluate the application of a CGA model for the clinical characterization and prognostic prediction of hospitalized older adults. METHODS: This was a prospective observational study including 746 patients aged 60 years and over who were admitted to a geriatric ward of a university hospital between January 2009 and December 2011, in Sao Paulo, Brazil. The proposed CGA was applied to evaluate all patients at admission. The primary outcome was in-hospital death, and the secondary outcomes were delirium, nosocomial infections, functional decline and length of stay. Multivariate binary logistic regression was performed to assess independent factors associated with these outcomes, including socio-demographic, clinical, functional, cognitive, and laboratory variables. Impairment in ten CGA components was particularly investigated: polypharmacy, activities of daily living (ADL) dependency, instrumental activities of daily living (IADL) dependency, depression, dementia, delirium, urinary incontinence, falls, malnutrition, and poor social support. RESULTS: The studied patients were mostly women (67.4%), and the mean age was 80.5±7.9 years. Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed the following independent factors associated with in-hospital death: IADL dependency (OR=4.02; CI=1.52-10.58; p=.005); ADL dependency (OR=2.39; CI=1.25-4.56; p=.008); malnutrition (OR=2.80; CI=1.63-4.83; p<.001); poor social support (OR=5.42; CI=2.93-11.36; p<.001); acute kidney injury (OR=3.05; CI=1.78-5.27; p<.001); and the presence of pressure ulcers (OR=2.29; CI=1.04-5.07; p=.041). ADL dependency was independently associated with both delirium incidence and nosocomial infections (respectively: OR=3.78; CI=2.30-6.20; p<.001 and OR=2.30; CI=1.49-3.49; p<.001). The number of impaired CGA components was also found to be associated with in-hospital death (p<.001), delirium incidence (p<.001) and nosocomial infections (p=.005). Additionally, IADL dependency, malnutrition and history of falls predicted longer hospitalizations. There were no significant changes in overall functional status during the hospital stay. CONCLUSIONS: CGA identified patients at higher risk of in-hospital death and adverse outcomes, of which those with functional dependence, malnutrition and poor social support were foremost.

Delirium in hospitalized elderly patients and post-discharge mortality.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the impact of delirium on post-discharge mortality in hospitalized older patients. INTRODUCTION: Delirium is frequent in hospitalized older patients and correlates with high hospital mortality. There are only a few studies about its impact on post-discharge mortality. METHODS: This is a prospective study of patients over 60 years old who were hospitalized in the Geriatric Unit at Hospital das Clínicas of São Paulo between May 2006 and March 2007. Upon admission, demographics, comorbidities, number of drugs taken, and serum albumin concentration were evaluated for each patient. Delirium was diagnosed according to the DSM-IV criteria. Patients were divided into group A (with delirium) and group B (without delirium). One year after discharge, the patients or their caregivers were contacted to assess days of survival. RESULTS: The sample included 199 patients, 66 (33%) of whom developed delirium (Group A). After one year, 33 (50%) group A patients had died, and 45 (33.8%) group B patients had died (p = 0.03). There was a significant statistical difference in average age (p = 0.001) and immobility (p <0.001) between groups A and B. There were no statistically significant differences between groups A and B in number of drugs taken greater than four (p = 0.62), sex (p = 0.54) and number of diagnoses greater than four (p = 0.21). According to a multivariate analysis, delirium was not an independent predictor of post-discharge mortality. The predictors of post-discharge mortality were age > or = 80 years (p = 0.029), albumin concentration < 3.5 g/dl (p = 0.001) and immobility (p = 0.007). CONCLUSION: Delirium is associated with higher post-discharge mortality as a dependent predictor.

Delirium in hospitalized elderly patients and post-discharge mortality

OBJECTIVE: To determine the impact of delirium on post-discharge mortality in hospitalized older patients. INTRODUCTION: Delirium is frequent in hospitalized older patients and correlates with high hospital mortality. There are only a few studies about its impact on post-discharge mortality. METHODS: This is a prospective study of patients over 60 years old who were hospitalized in the Geriatric Unit at Hospital das Clínicas of São Paulo between May 2006 and March 2007. Upon admission, demographics, comorbidities, number of drugs taken, and serum albumin concentration were evaluated for each patient. Delirium was diagnosed according to the DSM-IV criteria. Patients were divided into group A (with delirium) and group B (without delirium). One year after discharge, the patients or their caregivers were contacted to assess days of survival. RESULTS: The sample included 199 patients, 66 (33 percent) of whom developed delirium (Group A). After one year, 33 (50 percent) group A patients had died, and 45 (33.8 percent) group B patients had died (p = 0.03). There was a significant statistical difference in average age (p = 0.001) and immobility (p <0.001) between groups A and B. There were no statistically significant differences between groups A and B in number of drugs taken greater than four (p = 0.62), sex (p = 0.54) and number of diagnoses greater than four (p = 0.21). According to a multivariate analysis, delirium was not an independent predictor of post-discharge mortality. The predictors of post-discharge mortality were age > 80 years (p = 0.029), albumin concentration < 3.5 g/dl (p = 0.001) and immobility (p = 0.007). CONCLUSION: Delirium is associated with higher post-discharge mortality as a dependent predictor.

Predictors of in-hospital mortality among older patients.

OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to determine predictors of in-hospital mortality among older patients admitted to a geriatric care unit. INTRODUCTION: The growing number of older individuals among hospitalized patients demands a thorough investigation of the factors that contribute to their mortality. METHODS: This was a prospective observational study implemented from February 2004 to October 2007 in a tertiary university hospital. A consecutive sample of 922 patients was evaluated for possible inclusion in this study. Patients hospitalized for palliative care, those who declined to participate, and those with incomplete data were excluded, resulting in a group of 856 patients aged 60 to 104 years. Bivariate and multivariate analyses were performed to determine associations between in-patient mortality and gender, age, length of stay, number of prescribed medications and diagnoses at admission, history of heart failure, neoplastic disease, immobility syndrome, delirium, infectious disease, and laboratory tests at admission (serum albumin and creatinine). RESULTS: The overall mortality rate was 16.4%. The following factors were associated with higher in-hospital mortality: delirium (OR=4.13, CI=2.65-6.44, P<.001), neoplastic disease (OR=3.38, CI=2.11-5.42, P<.001), serum albumin levels at admission < 3.3 mg/dL (OR=3.23, CI=2.03-5.13, P<.001), serum creatinine levels at admission > or = 1.3 mg/dL (OR=2.39, CI=1.53-3.72, P<.001), history of heart failure (OR=1.97, CI=1.20-3.22, P=.007), immobility (OR=1.84, CI=1.16-2.92, P =.009), and advanced age (OR=1.03, CI=1.01-1.06, P=.019). CONCLUSIONS: This study strengthens the perception of delirium as a mortality predictor among older inpatients. Cancer, immobility, low albumin levels, elevated creatinine levels, history of heart failure and advanced age were also related to higher mortality rates in this population.

Predictors of in-hospital mortality among older patients

OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to determine predictors of in-hospital mortality among older patients admitted to a geriatric care unit. INTRODUCTION: The growing number of older individuals among hospitalized patients demands a thorough investigation of the factors that contribute to their mortality. METHODS: This was a prospective observational study implemented from February 2004 to October 2007 in a tertiary university hospital. A consecutive sample of 922 patients was evaluated for possible inclusion in this study. Patients hospitalized for palliative care, those who declined to participate, and those with incomplete data were excluded, resulting in a group of 856 patients aged 60 to 104 years. Bivariate and multivariate analyses were performed to determine associations between in-patient mortality and gender, age, length of stay, number of prescribed medications and diagnoses at admission, history of heart failure, neoplastic disease, immobility syndrome, delirium, infectious disease, and laboratory tests at admission (serum albumin and creatinine). RESULTS: The overall mortality rate was 16.4%. The following factors were associated with higher in-hospital mortality: delirium (OR=4.13, CI=2.65-6.44, P<.001), neoplastic disease (OR=3.38, CI=2.11-5.42, P<.001), serum albumin levels at admission <3.3mg/ dL (OR=3.23, CI=2.03-5.13, P<.001), serum creatinine levels at admission >1.3mg/dL (OR=2.39, CI=1.53-3.72, P<.001), history of heart failure (OR=1.97, CI=1.20-3.22, P=.007), immobility (OR=1.84, CI=1.16-2.92, P =.009), and advanced age (OR=1.03, CI=1.01-1.06, P=.019). CONCLUSIONS: This study strengthens the perception of delirium as a mortality predictor among older inpatients. Cancer, immobility, low albumin levels, elevated creatinine levels, history of heart failure and advanced age were also related to higher mortality rates in this population.