Genetic effects on the skin methylome in healthy older twins.

Whole-skin DNA methylation variation has been implicated in several diseases, including melanoma, but its genetic basis has not yet been fully characterized. Using bulk skin tissue samples from 414 healthy female UK twins, we performed twin-based heritability and methylation quantitative trait loci (meQTL) analyses for >400,000 DNA methylation sites. We find that the human skin DNA methylome is on average less heritable than previously estimated in blood and other tissues (mean heritability: 10.02%). meQTL analysis identified local genetic effects influencing DNA methylation at 18.8% (76,442) of tested CpG sites, as well as 1,775 CpG sites associated with at least one distal genetic variant. As a functional follow-up, we performed skin expression QTL (eQTL) analyses in a partially overlapping sample of 604 female twins. Colocalization analysis identified over 3,500 shared genetic effects affecting thousands of CpG sites (10,067) and genes (4,475). Mediation analysis of putative colocalized gene-CpG pairs identified 114 genes with evidence for eQTL effects being mediated by DNA methylation in skin, including in genes implicating skin disease such as ALOX12 and CSPG4. We further explored the relevance of skin meQTLs to skin disease and found that skin meQTLs and CpGs under genetic influence were enriched for multiple skin-related genome-wide and epigenome-wide association signals, including for melanoma and psoriasis. Our findings give insights into the regulatory landscape of epigenomic variation in skin.

Prediction of atrial fibrillation and stroke using machine learning models in UK Biobank.

Objective: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common cardiac arrythmia, and it is associated with increased risk for ischemic stroke, which is underestimated, as AF can be asymptomatic. The aim of this study was to develop optimal ML models for prediction of AF in the population, and secondly for ischemic stroke in AF patients. Methods: To develop ML models for prediction of 1) AF in the general population and 2) ischemic stroke in patients with AF we constructed XGBoost, LightGBM, Random Forest, Deep Neural Network, Support Vector Machine and Lasso penalised logistic regression models using UK-Biobank's extensive real-world clinical data, questionnaires, as well as biochemical and genetic data, and their predictive performances were compared. Ranking and contribution of the different features was assessed by SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) analysis. The clinical tool CHA2DS2-VASc for prediction of ischemic stroke among AF patients, was used for comparison to the best performing ML model. Findings: The best performing model for AF prediction was LightGBM, with an area-under-the-roc-curve (AUROC) of 0.729 (95% confidence intervals (CI): 0.719, 0.738). The best performing model for ischemic stroke prediction in AF patients was XGBoost with AUROC of 0.631 (95% CI: 0.604, 0.657). The improved AUROC in the XGBoost model compared to CHA2DS2-VASc was statistically significant based on DeLong's test (p-value = 2.20E-06). In addition, the SHAP analysis showed that several peripheral blood biomarkers (e.g. creatinine, glycated haemoglobin, monocytes) were associated with ischemic stroke, which are not considered by CHA2DS2-VASc. Implications: The best performing ML models presented have the potential for clinical use, but further validation in independent studies is required. Our results endorse the incorporation of some routinely measured blood biomarkers for ischemic stroke prediction in AF patients.

The role of thyroid function in borderline personality disorder and schizophrenia: a Mendelian Randomisation study.

BACKGROUND: Genome-wide association studies have reported a genetic overlap between borderline personality disorder (BPD) and schizophrenia (SCZ). Epidemiologically, the direction and causality of the association between thyroid function and risk of BPD and SCZ are unclear. We aim to test whether genetically predicted variations in TSH and FT4 levels or hypothyroidism are associated with the risk of BPD and SCZ. METHODS: We employed Mendelian Randomisation (MR) analyses using genetic instruments associated with TSH and FT4 levels as well as hypothyroidism to examine the effects of genetically predicted thyroid function on BPD and SCZ risk. Bidirectional MR analyses were employed to investigate a potential reverse causal association. RESULTS: Genetically predicted higher FT4 was not associated with the risk of BPD (OR: 1.18; P = 0.60, IVW) or the risk of SCZ (OR: 0.93; P = 0.19, IVW). Genetically predicted higher TSH was not associated with the risk of BPD (OR: 1.11; P = 0.51, IVW) or SCZ (OR: 0.98, P = 0.55, IVW). Genetically predicted hypothyroidism was not associated with BPD or SCZ. We found no evidence for a reverse causal effect between BPD or SCZ on thyroid function. CONCLUSIONS: We report evidence for a null association between genetically predicted FT4, TSH or hypothyroidism with BPD or SCZ risk. There was no evidence for reverse causality.