A DREAM Challenge to Build Prediction Models for Short-Term Discontinuation of Docetaxel in Metastatic Castration-Resistant Prostate Cancer.

PURPOSE: Docetaxel has a demonstrated survival benefit for patients with metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC); however, 10% to 20% of patients discontinue docetaxel prematurely because of toxicity-induced adverse events, and the management of risk factors for toxicity remains a challenge. PATIENTS AND METHODS: The comparator arms of four phase III clinical trials in first-line mCRPC were collected, annotated, and compiled, with a total of 2,070 patients. Early discontinuation was defined as treatment stoppage within 3 months as a result of adverse treatment effects; 10% of patients discontinued treatment. We designed an open-data, crowd-sourced DREAM Challenge for developing models with which to predict early discontinuation of docetaxel treatment. Clinical features for all four trials and outcomes for three of the four trials were made publicly available, with the outcomes of the fourth trial held back for unbiased model evaluation. Challenge participants from around the world trained models and submitted their predictions. Area under the precision-recall curve was the primary metric used for performance assessment. RESULTS: In total, 34 separate teams submitted predictions. Seven models with statistically similar area under precision-recall curves (Bayes factor ≤ 3) outperformed all other models. A postchallenge analysis of risk prediction using these seven models revealed three patient subgroups: high risk, low risk, or discordant risk. Early discontinuation events were two times higher in the high-risk subgroup compared with the low-risk subgroup. Simulation studies demonstrated that use of patient discontinuation prediction models could reduce patient enrollment in clinical trials without the loss of statistical power. CONCLUSION: This work represents a successful collaboration between 34 international teams that leveraged open clinical trial data. Our results demonstrate that routinely collected clinical features can be used to identify patients with mCRPC who are likely to discontinue treatment because of adverse events and establishes a robust benchmark with implications for clinical trial design.

Associations between Gut Microbial Colonization in Early Life and Respiratory Outcomes in Cystic Fibrosis.

OBJECTIVE: To examine patterns of microbial colonization of the respiratory and intestinal tracts in early life in infants with cystic fibrosis (CF) and their associations with breastfeeding and clinical outcomes. STUDY DESIGN: A comprehensive, prospective longitudinal analysis of the upper respiratory and intestinal microbiota in a cohort of infants and young children with CF followed from birth was performed. Genus-level microbial community composition was characterized using 16S-targeted pyrosequencing, and relationships with exposures and outcomes were assessed using linear mixed-effects models, time-to-event analysis, and principal components analysis. RESULTS: Sequencing of 120 samples from 13 subjects collected from birth to 34 months revealed relationships between breastfeeding, microbial diversity in the respiratory and intestinal tracts, and the timing of onset of respiratory complications, including exacerbations and colonization with Pseudomonas aeruginosa. Fluctuations in the abundance of specific bacterial taxa preceded clinical outcomes, including a significant decrease in bacteria of the genus Parabacteroides within the intestinal tract prior to the onset of chronic P aeruginosa colonization. Specific assemblages of bacteria in intestinal samples, but not respiratory samples, were associated with CF exacerbation in early life, indicating that the intestinal microbiome may play a role in lung health. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings relating breastfeeding to respiratory outcomes, gut diversity to prolonged periods of health, and specific bacterial communities in the gut prior to respiratory complications in CF highlight a connection between the intestinal microbiome and health and point to potential opportunities for antibiotic or probiotic interventions. Further studies in larger cohorts validating these findings are needed.

Placenta-imprinted gene expression association of infant neurobehavior.

OBJECTIVE: To identify links between altered gene imprinting in the placenta and infant neurobehavioral profiles. STUDY DESIGN: Quantitative reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction was used to examine the expression of 22 imprinted candidate genes in a series of 106 term human primary placenta tissues. The expression pattern uncovered was associated with Neonatal Intensive Care Unit Network Neurobehavioral Scales summary scores in the corresponding infants. Clustering of the expression data was used to define distinct classes of expression. RESULTS: Significant associations were identified between classes of expression and the Neonatal Intensive Care Unit Network Neurobehavioral Scales quality of movement (P = .02) and handling (P = .006) scores. Multivariate regression demonstrated an independent effect of imprinted gene expression profile on these neurobehavioral scores after controlling for confounders. CONCLUSION: These results suggest that alterations in imprinted gene expression in the placenta are associated with infant neurodevelopmental outcomes, and suggest a role for the placenta and genomic imprinting in the placenta beyond intrauterine growth regulation.