Incidence trend of type 2 diabetes from 2012 to 2021 in Germany: an analysis of health claims data of 11 million statutorily insured people.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: The aim of the study is to describe the time trend of type 2 diabetes incidence in the largest state of Germany, Bavaria, from 2012 to 2021, and to compare the incidence rates during the pandemic period (2020-2021) to the pre-pandemic period (2012-2019). METHODS: This secondary data analysis uses health claims data provided by the Bavarian Association of Statutory Health Insurance Physicians (KVB), covering approximately 11 million insurees, accounting for 85% of the total population of Bavaria, Germany. Newly diagnosed type 2 diabetes cases in adults (≥20 years) coded as E11 (Diabetes mellitus, Type 2) or E14 (Unspecified diabetes mellitus) under ICD-10, German modification (ICD-10-GM) for the study period 2012 to 2021 were included. Annual and quarterly age-standardised incidence rates (ASIR) stratified by sex, age and region were calculated using the European standard population. Sex-specific crude incidence rates (CIR) were calculated using 10-year age groups. Regression analyses adjusted for time trends, seasonal effects, and pandemic effects were used to analyse the incidence trend and to assess the effect of the pandemic. RESULTS: Overall, 745,861 new cases of type 2 diabetes were diagnosed between 2012 and 2021: 50.4% (376,193 cases) in women. The male/female ratio remained stable over the observation period, while the median age at diagnosis decreased from 61 to 58 years in men and from 66 years to 61 years in women. ASIR were consistently higher for men compared with women, with the yearly difference remaining stable over time (2012: 18%; 2021: 20%). An overall decreasing trend in ASIR was observed during the study period, with a strong decrease from 2012 to 2017, followed by a less pronounced decline from 2018 to 2021 for both sexes. For men, ASIR decreased from 1514 per 100,000 person-years in 2012 to 995 per 100,000 person-years in 2021 (4.6% average annual reduction), and for women from 1238 per 100,000 person-years in 2012 to 796 per 100,000 person-years in 2021 (4.8% average annual reduction). This downward trend was also observed for age groups above 50 years. Regression analyses showed no significant change in incidence rates during the pandemic period (2020 and 2021) compared with the pre-pandemic period. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: For the first time, a 10-year incidence trend of type 2 diabetes is reported for Germany, showing a strong decline from 2012 to 2017, followed by a less pronounced decline from 2018 to 2021. The incidence trend of type 2 diabetes appears not to have been affected by the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic. Despite an overall increasing prevalence, the incidence is decreasing, potentially resulting from robust screening by family physicians, reducing the median age at diagnosis by 3 to 5 years. However, further investigation is needed to fully identify the reasons for the declining incidence trend. Continued incidence monitoring is necessary to identify the long-term trend and the potential effect of the pandemic on diagnoses of type 2 diabetes.

Impact of pre-existing mental health diagnoses on development of post-COVID and related symptoms: a claims data-based cohort study.

This study aimed to examine the association of prior mental health diagnoses with the onset of Post-COVID-19 condition (PCC). We conducted a retrospective comparative cohort study and secondary analysis of routinely collected claims data from participants in statutory health insurance in Bavaria, Germany, from January 2015 to June 2022. Study participants were 619,560 patients with confirmed COVID-19, 42,969 with other respiratory tract infection (ORI), and 438,023 controls. Using diagnoses coded according to the German modification of the ICD-10, the associations between prior mental health diagnoses and a PCC diagnosis (primary outcome) or associated symptoms (secondary outcomes) were estimated using multiple Cox proportional hazards regression models. Mental disorders (hazard ratio [HR] 1.36, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.30-1.42), anxiety (HR 1.14, 95% CI 1.07-1.20), depression (HR 1.25, 95% CI 1.19-1.30) and somatoform disorders (HR 1.30, 95% CI 1.24-1.36) were associated with higher risks for PCC. Mental disorders were associated with the same or even greater risk for a diagnosis of malaise and fatigue in the control cohort (HR 1.71, 95% CI 1.52-1.93) and ORI cohort (HR 1.43, 95% CI 1.20-1.72), than in the COVID-19 cohort (HR 1.43, 95% CI 1.35-1.51). In summary, prior mental comorbidity was associated with an increased risk of PCC and its associated symptoms in all cohorts, not specifically in COVID-19 patients.

Vaccination frequency in people newly diagnosed with multiple sclerosis.

BACKGROUND: Infections are discussed as risk factor for multiple sclerosis (MS) development and relapses. This may lead to decreased vaccination frequency in newly diagnosed patients. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to evaluate the relation of MS diagnosis to subsequent vaccination frequency. METHODS: Based on German ambulatory claims data from 2005 to 2019, regression models were used to assess the relation of MS diagnosis (n = 12,270) to vaccination. A cohort of patients with MS was compared to control cohorts with Crohn's disease, psoriasis, and without these autoimmune diseases (total n = 198,126) in the 5 years after and before diagnosis. RESULTS: Patients with MS were less likely to be vaccinated compared to persons without the autoimmune diseases 5 years after diagnosis (odds ratio = 0.91, p < 0.001). Exceptions were vaccinations against influenza (1.29, p < 0.001) and pneumococci (1.41, p < 0.001). Differences were strong but less pronounced after than before diagnosis (p < 0.001). The likelihood of vaccination was also lower compared to patients with Crohn's disease or psoriasis. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with MS were not adequately vaccinated despite guideline recommendations. Increasing awareness about the importance of vaccination is warranted to reduce the risk of infection, in particular, in patients with MS receiving immunotherapies.

Type 1 Diabetes Incidence and Risk in Children With a Diagnosis of COVID-19.

This study used a population-based individual patient data set that included diagnoses of COVID-19 to determine whether there was a temporal association between COVID-19 and type 1 diabetes in children.

Consequences of early thyroid ultrasound on subsequent tests, morbidity and costs: an explorative analysis of routine health data from German ambulatory care.

OBJECTIVES: This study aims to evaluate whether the use of thyroid ultrasound (US) early in the work-up of suspected thyroid disorders triggers cascade effects of medical procedures and to analyse effects on morbidity, healthcare usage and costs. STUDY DESIGN: Retrospective analysis of claims data from ambulatory care (2012-2017). SETTING: Primary care in Bavaria, Germany, 13 million inhabitants. PARTICIPANTS: Patients having received a thyroid stimulating hormone (TSH) test were allocated to (1) observation group: TSH test followed by an early US within 28 days or (2) control group: TSH test, but no early US. Propensity score matching was used adjusting for socio-demographic characteristics, morbidity and symptom diagnosis (N=41 065 per group after matching). PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: Using cluster analysis, groups were identified regarding frequency of follow-up TSH tests and/or US and compared. RESULTS: Four subgroups were identified: cluster 1: 22.8% of patients, mean (M)=1.6 TSH tests; cluster 2: 16.6% of patients, M=4.7 TSH tests; cluster 3: 54.4% of patients, M=3.3 TSH tests, 1.8 US; cluster 4: 6.2% of patients, M=10.9 TSH tests, 3.9 US. Overall, reasons that explain the tests could rarely be found. An early US was mostly found in clusters 3 and 4 (83.2% and 76.1%, respectively, were part of the observation group). In cluster 4 there were more women, thyroid-specific morbidity and costs were higher and the early US was more likely to be performed by specialists in nuclear medicine or radiologists. CONCLUSION: Presumably unnecessary tests in the field of suspected thyroid diseases seem to be frequent, contributing to cascades effects. Neither German nor international guidelines provide clear recommendations for or against US screening. Therefore, guidelines on when to apply US and when not are urgently needed.

HPV vaccination leads to decrease of anogenital warts and precancerous lesions of the cervix uteri in young women with low vaccination rates: a retrospective cohort analysis.

BACKGROUND: Although the human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine has been recommended in Germany for girls since 2007, no organised vaccination programme was introduced and HPV vaccine coverage remains low. We investigated the HPV vaccination rates from 2008 to 2018 and the effects of HPV vaccination on anogenital warts and precancerous lesions in young women in Bavaria, Germany, a state with low vaccination rates. METHODS: Retrospective analyses of claims data from the Bavarian Association of Statutory Health Insurance Physicians (KVB) on females born between 1990 and 2009 (9 to 28 years old in 2018) were conducted to calculate vaccination rates by birth cohort, proportion of vaccine types administered and incidence of anogenital warts and precancerous lesions of the cervix uteri. 942 841 Bavarian females 9 to 28 years old with available information on HPV vaccination were included to calculate vaccination rates. For the outcome analyses, data from 433 346 females 19 to 28 years old were analysed. Hazard ratios (HR) were computed from univariable and multivariable Cox regression models comparing vaccinated and unvaccinated women, considering type of vaccine used and contraceptive prescription. RESULTS: 40·9% of 18-year-olds and only 13·3% of 12-year-olds were fully vaccinated in 2018 in Bavaria. Gardasil® and Gardasil9® were most commonly administered. Vaccinated compared to unvaccinated women had a lower incidence of anogenital warts and cervical lesions, however only small differences were detected between fully and partially vaccinated women. Fully vaccinated women had a 63% (HR 0·37 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0·34 to 0·40) and 23% (HR 0·77, 95%CI 0·71 to 0·84) lower risk of anogenital warts and cervical lesions, respectively. Women who were prescribed contraceptives prior to vaccination had a 49% higher risk of developing anogenital warts (HR 1·49, 95%CI 1·25 to 1·79) or cervical lesions (HR 1·49, 95%CI 1·27 to 1·75) compared to vaccinated women without contraceptive prescription. CONCLUSIONS: The evaluation of the effects of HPV vaccination in Bavaria showed a promising decline of anogenital warts and precancerous lesions in vaccinated young women. However, an increase in vaccination rates is necessary to achieve a greater population impact in preventing HPV-related diseases.

Incidence of post-COVID syndrome and associated symptoms in outpatient care in Bavaria, Germany: a retrospective cohort study using routinely collected claims data.

OBJECTIVES: To estimate the treatment incidence of post-COVID syndrome (postinfectious sequelae present at least 12 weeks following infection) in the context of ambulatory care in Bavaria, Germany, and to establish whether related diagnoses occur more frequently than in patients with no known history of COVID-19. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort analysis of routinely collected claims data. SETTING: Ambulatory care in Bavaria, Germany, observed from January 2020 to March 2022 (data accessed May 2022). PARTICIPANTS: 391 990 patients with confirmed COVID-19 diagnosis, 62 659 patients with other respiratory infection and a control group of 659 579 patients with no confirmed or suspected diagnosis of COVID-19. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: Primary outcome is diagnosis of post-COVID syndrome documented in ambulatory care. Secondary outcomes are: chronic fatigue syndrome, psychological disorder, fatigue, mild cognitive impairment, disturbances of taste and smell, dyspnoea, pulmonary embolism and myalgia. RESULTS: Among all patients with confirmed COVID-19, 14.2% (95% CI 14.0% to 14.5%) received a diagnosis of a post-COVID syndrome, and 6.7% (95% CI 6.5% to 6.9%) received the diagnosis in at least two quarterly periods during a 2-year follow-up. Compared with patients with other respiratory infections and with controls, patients with COVID-19 more frequently received a variety of diagnoses including chronic fatigue syndrome (1.6% vs 0.6% and 0.3%, respectively), fatigue (13.3% vs 9.2% and 6.0%), dyspnoea (9.9% vs 5.1% and 3.2%) and disturbances of taste and smell (3.2% vs 1.2% and 0.5%). The treatment incidence of post-COVID syndrome was highest among adults aged 40-59 (19.0%) and lowest among children aged below 12 years (2.6%). CONCLUSIONS: Our results demonstrate a moderately high incidence of post-COVID syndrome 2 years after COVID-19 diagnosis. There is an urgent need to find efficient and effective solutions to help patients with dyspnoea, fatigue, cognitive impairment and loss of smell. Guidelines and treatment algorithms, including referral criteria, and occupational and physical therapy, require prompt and coherent implementation.

Association of pregnancies with risk of multiple sclerosis.

BACKGROUND: Pregnancies have an impact on the disease course of multiple sclerosis (MS), but their relationship with MS risk is yet unclear. OBJECTIVE: To determine the relationships of pregnancies and gynecological diagnoses with MS risk. METHODS: In this retrospective case-control study, we assessed differences in gynecological International Classification of Diseases, 10th Revision (ICD-10) code recording rates between women with MS (n = 5720), Crohn's disease (n = 6280), or psoriasis (n = 40,555) and women without these autoimmune diseases (n = 26,729) in the 5 years before diagnosis. RESULTS: Twenty-eight ICD-10 codes were recorded less frequently for women with MS as compared to women without autoimmune disease, 18 of which are pregnancy-related. After adjustment for pregnancies, all codes unrelated to pregnancies were still negatively associated with MS. In a sensitivity analysis excluding women with evidence for possible demyelinating events before diagnosis, all associations were more pronounced. In comparison to women with psoriasis, most associations could be confirmed; that was not true in comparison to women with Crohn's disease. CONCLUSION: Our findings provide evidence for a possible protective effect of pregnancies on MS risk likely independent of or in addition to a previously suggested reversed causality. The negative associations of gynecological disorders with disease risk need further investigation. The associations might be shared by different autoimmune diseases.

[The Development of General Practices in Ambulatory Care in the Last Decades - An Analysis of the Physicians' Registry of Bavaria]. / Entwicklung der hausärztlichen Versorgung innerhalb der letzten Jahrzehnte ­ eine Analyse des Basisdatensatzes der Kassenärztlichen Vereinigung Bayerns.

AIM OF THE STUDY: There is an increasing shortage of general practitioners (GPs) in Germany. An in-depth understanding of the variation regarding the characteristics of the GPs in the last decades might help to optimize primary health care. The aim of the analysis of the characteristic features of GPs as preserved by the registry of the Bavarian Association of Statutory Health Insurance of Physicians (KVB) was to delineate the time interval between passing the medical state examination and establishment of one's own private practice, the development of group practices and employments, and the number of additional qualifications. METHODS: The physicians' registry of the KVB was used to analyse the time intervals, additional qualifications, and development of group practices and employments. Data were analysed descriptively. RESULTS: The time interval from passing the medical state examination and establishing one's own private practice increased remarkably since the 70s from 5 years to 12 years on average. There was an increasing trend towards group practices. The number of newly established practices remained constant around 200 practices per year. Beyond that, there was an increasing trend towards employment in practices. The number of additional qualifications decreased over time, which was in particular true of complementary medicine and sports medicine. CONCLUSIONS: The period of vocational traineeship should be organised efficiently to decrease the length of training. Young GPs should be motivated and receive incentives to establish their own private practice. However, it is also necessary to facilitate employment in the practices.

Short- and medium-term cost effects of non-indicated thyroid diagnostics: empirical evidence from German claims data.

This paper contributes to the discussion of whether non-indicated ultrasound examinations of the thyroid gland contribute to overtreatment and excess health care expenditures. Using two sources of claims data from Germany, we analyzed data from patients who underwent a TSH blood test which is the initial diagnostic measure to check for possible presence of thyroid dysfunction. In a matching analysis, we compared health costs of two groups of patients. One consisted of patients who underwent an early thyroid ultrasound that according to medical guidelines-at this point-was probably not indicated. The other group consisted of patients, who underwent no ultrasound examination at all or later in the course of the disease, making probable a correct indication. Both groups were made comparable by the means of a matching procedure. Average thyroid-specific health costs were substantially higher for the first group in the quarter in which the ultrasound examination took place. Some deviation in these specific costs persisted over a substantial period of time, with drug expenditures exhibiting the biggest difference. If, however, total health costs were considered, difference in costs was only found in the initial quarter. We conclude that non-indicated ultrasound examination of the thyroid gland may have some moderate effects on thyroid-specific costs. Yet the data do not suggest that long-lasting overtreatment and excess health expenditures are initiated by non-indicated ultrasound in Germany.

SARS-CoV-2 infection and cardiovascular or pulmonary complications in ambulatory care: A risk assessment based on routine data.

BACKGROUND: Risk factors of severe COVID-19 have mainly been investigated in the hospital setting. We investigated pre-defined risk factors for testing positive for SARS-CoV-2 infection and cardiovascular or pulmonary complications in the outpatient setting. METHODS: The present cohort study makes use of ambulatory claims data of statutory health insurance physicians in Bavaria, Germany, with polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test confirmed or excluded SARS-CoV-2 infection in first three quarters of 2020. Statistical modelling and machine learning were used for effect estimation and for hypothesis testing of risk factors, and for prognostic modelling of cardiovascular or pulmonary complications. RESULTS: A cohort of 99 811 participants with PCR test was identified. In a fully adjusted multivariable regression model, dementia (odds ratio (OR) = 1.36), type 2 diabetes (OR = 1.14) and obesity (OR = 1.08) were identified as significantly associated with a positive PCR test result. Significant risk factors for cardiovascular or pulmonary complications were coronary heart disease (CHD) (OR = 2.58), hypertension (OR = 1.65), tobacco consumption (OR = 1.56), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) (OR = 1.53), previous pneumonia (OR = 1.53), chronic kidney disease (CKD) (OR = 1.25) and type 2 diabetes (OR = 1.23). Three simple decision rules derived from prognostic modelling based on age, hypertension, CKD, COPD and CHD were able to identify high risk patients with a sensitivity of 74.8% and a specificity of 80.0%. CONCLUSIONS: The decision rules achieved a high prognostic accuracy non-inferior to complex machine learning methods. They might help to identify patients at risk, who should receive special attention and intensified protection in ambulatory care.

Patients With Somatoform Disorders Are Prone to Expensive and Potentially Harmful Medical Procedures­Results of a Retrospective Cohort Study Over 15 Years.

BACKGROUND: Patients with functional somatic syndromes (FSS) might be prone to potentially harmful medical investigations in ambulatory care. The primary aim was to investigate whether patients with FSS are more likely to undergo diagnostic examinations such as radiography, computed tomography (CT), magnetic reso - nance imaging (MRI), and outpatient surgical procedures. The secondary aim was to evaluate the extent to which coordination of care by primary care physicians reduces healthcare utilization. METHODS: Retrospective cohort study using longitudinal regression analysis of routine data. FSS patients were weighted in the regression model to allow a representative comparison with the Bavarian population. The observation period was from 5 years before until 10 years after the diagnosis of FSS. RESULTS: The cohort comprised 43 676 patients with FSS and a control group of 50 003 patients without a diagnosis of FSS. The FSS patients exhibited continuously increased healthcare utilization over the 15-year period. The relative risk (RR) for FSS patients was up to 1.48 (95% confidence interval [1.46; 1.50]) for radiography, 2.01 [1.94; 2.08] for CT, 1.91 [1.87; 1.96] for MRI, and 1.30 [1.27; 1.34] for outpatient surgery. Compared with patients whose treatment was coordinated by their primary care physician, patients with no such coordination showed higher service utilization. The ambulatory care costs were up to 1.37 [1.36; 1.38] times greater. CONCLUSION: Patients with FSS more frequently undergo potentially harmful and costly diagnostic testing and outpatient surgery. Coordination of care by the primary care physician is associated with lower healthcare utilization.

Ambulatory specialist costs and morbidity of coordinated and uncoordinated patients before and after abolition of copayment: A cohort analysis.

To strengthen the coordinating function of general practitioners (GPs) in the German healthcare system, a copayment of €10 was introduced in 2004. Due to a perceived lack of efficacy and a high administrative burden, it was abolished in 2012. The present cohort study investigates characteristics and differences of GP-coordinated and uncoordinated patients in Bavaria, Germany, concerning morbidity and ambulatory specialist costs and whether these differences have changed after the abolition of the copayment. We performed a retrospective routine data analysis, using claims data of the Bavarian Association of the Statutory Health Insurance Physicians during the period 2011-2012 (with copayment) and 2013-2016 (without copayment), covering 24 quarters. Coordinated care was defined as specialist contact only with referral. Multinomial regression modelling, including inverse probability of treatment weighting, was used for the cohort analysis of 500 000 randomly selected patients. Longitudinal regression models were calculated for cost estimation. Coordination of care decreased substantially after the abolition of the copayment, accompanied by increasing proportions of patients with chronic and mental diseases in the uncoordinated group, and a corresponding decrease in the coordinated group. In the presence of the copayment, uncoordinated patients had €21.78 higher specialist costs than coordinated patients, increasing to €24.94 after its abolition. The results indicate that patients incur higher healthcare costs for specialist ambulatory care when their care is uncoordinated. This effect slightly increased after abolition of the copayment. Beyond that, the abolition of the copayment led to a substantial reduction in primary care coordination, particularly affecting vulnerable patients. Therefore, coordination of care in the ambulatory setting should be strengthened.

Systematic Assessment of Medical Diagnoses Preceding the First Diagnosis of Multiple Sclerosis.

OBJECTIVE: To explore the occurrence of diseases and symptoms in the five years prior to diagnosis in patients with multiple sclerosis (MS) in a case-control study. METHODS: Using ambulatory claims data we systematically assessed differences in the occurrence of diseases and symptoms in the five years prior to first diagnosis in patients with MS (n=10,262) as compared to patients with two other autoimmune diseases - Crohn's disease (n=15,502) and psoriasis (n=98,432) - and individuals without these diseases (n=73,430). RESULTS: Forty-three ICD-10 codes were recorded more frequently for patients with MS before diagnosis as compared to controls without autoimmune disease. Many of these findings were confirmed in a comparison to the other control groups. A high proportion of these ICD-10 codes represent symptoms suggestive of demyelinating events or other neurological diagnoses. In a sensitivity analysis excluding patients with such recordings prior to first diagnosis, no association remained significant. Seven ICD-10 codes were associated with lower odds ratios of MS, four of which represented upper respiratory tract infections. Here, the relations with MS were even more pronounced in the sensitivity analysis. CONCLUSIONS: Our analyses suggest that patients with MS are frequently not diagnosed at their first demyelinating event but often years later. Symptoms and physician encounters before MS diagnosis seem to be related to already ongoing disease rather than a prodrome. The observed association of upper respiratory tract infections with lower ORs of MS diagnosis suggests a link between protection from infection and MS that however needs to be validated and further investigated.

Impact of the abolition of copayments on the GP-centred coordination of care in Bavaria, Germany: analysis of routinely collected claims data.

OBJECTIVES: In 2012, Germany abolished copayment for consultations in ambulatory care. This study investigated the effect of the abolition on general practitioner (GP)-centred coordination of care. We assessed how the proportion of patients with coordinated specialist care changed over time when copayment to all specialist services were removed. Furthermore, we studied how the number of ambulatory emergency cases and apparent 'doctor shopping' changed after the abolition. DESIGN: A retrospective routine data analysis of the Bavarian Association of Statutory Health Insurance Physicians, comparing the years 2011 and 2012 (with copayment), with the period from 2013 to 2016 (without copayment). Therefore, time series analyses covering 24 quarters were performed. SETTING: Primary care in Bavaria, Germany. PARTICIPANTS: All statutorily insured patients in Bavaria, aged ≥18 years, with at least one ambulatory specialist contact between 2011 and 2016. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: Primary outcome was the percentage of patients with GP-coordinated care (every regular specialist consultation within a quarter was preceded by a GP referral). Secondary outcomes were the number of ambulatory emergency cases and apparent 'doctor shopping'. RESULTS: After the abolition, the proportion of coordinated patients decreased from 49.6% (2011) to 15.5% (2016). Overall, younger patients and those living in areas with lower levels of deprivation showed the lowest proportions of coordination, which further decreased after abolition. Additionally, there were concomitant increases in the number of ambulatory emergency contacts and to a lesser extent in the number of patients with apparent 'doctor shopping'. CONCLUSIONS: The abolition of copayment in Germany was associated with a substantial decrease in GP coordination of specialist care. This suggests that the copayment was a partly effective tool to support coordinated care. Future studies are required to investigate how the gatekeeping function of GPs in Germany can best be strengthened while minimising the associated administrative overhead.

Comorbidities of Patients with Functional Somatic Syndromes Before, During and After First Diagnosis: A Population-based Study using Bavarian Routine Data.

Functional somatic syndromes (FSS) are characterised by the presence of one or multiple chronic symptoms that cannot be attributed to a known somatic disease. They are thought to arise though a complex interaction of biological and psychosocial factors, but it is unclear whether they share a common aetiology. One hypothesis supported by recent studies is that the FSS are postinfectious disorders, as is widely recognised for a subset of patients with irritable bowel syndrome. Our study used claims data submitted by office-based physicians to compare groups of patients with different FSS in the five years before and after the point of first diagnosis. Even five years prior to diagnosis, FSS patients consulted more frequently for a range of psychological and somatic conditions than did controls. Following diagnosis, consultation rates increased further and remained persistently high. Five years after diagnosis, between 34% (somatization disorder) and 66% (fibromyalgia) of patients were still being treated for the condition. Both prior gastrointestinal and upper-respiratory infection were associated with an increased risk of developing an FSS. We therefore recommend that patients at risk should be identified at an early stage and the underlying psychosocial and somatic issues addressed to prevent progression of the condition.

A large case-control study on vaccination as risk factor for multiple sclerosis.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the hypothesis that vaccination is a risk factor for multiple sclerosis (MS) by use of German ambulatory claims data in a case-control study. METHODS: Using the ambulatory claims data of the Bavarian Association of Statutory Health Insurance Physicians covering 2005-2017, logistic regression models were used to assess the relation between MS (n = 12,262) and vaccinations in the 5 years before first diagnosis. Participants newly diagnosed with Crohn disease (n = 19,296) or psoriasis (n = 112,292) and participants with no history of these autoimmune diseases (n = 79,185) served as controls. RESULTS: The odds of MS were lower in participants with a recorded vaccination (odds ratio [OR] 0.870, p < 0.001 vs participants without autoimmune disease; OR 0.919, p < 0.001 vs participants with Crohn disease; OR 0.973, p = 0.177 vs participants with psoriasis). Lower odds were most pronounced for vaccinations against influenza and tick-borne encephalitis. These effects were consistently observed for different time frames, control cohorts, and definitions of the MS cohort. Effect sizes increased toward the time of first diagnosis. CONCLUSIONS: Results of the present study do not reveal vaccination to be a risk factor for MS. On the contrary, they consistently suggest that vaccination is associated with a lower likelihood of being diagnosed with MS within the next 5 years. Whether this is a protective effect needs to be addressed by future studies.

A Systematic Assessment of Prevalence, Incidence and Regional Distribution of Multiple Sclerosis in Bavaria From 2006 to 2015.

Introduction: Worldwide, incidence and prevalence of multiple sclerosis (MS) have increased over the last decades. We present a systematic epidemiological study with recent prevalence and incidence rates of MS in Bavaria. Methods: Incidence and prevalence of MS stratified by gender, age groups and region were analyzed by data records from 2006 to 2015 of more than 10 million people insured by the Bavarian Association of Statutory Health Insurance Physicians. Official statistics of the German Federal Ministry of Health provided the size of the general population. Future prevalence was estimated with a predictive model. Results: From 2006 to 2015 prevalence of MS in Bavaria increased from 171 per 100,000 to 277 per 100,000, while incidence rates remained relatively stable (range 16-18 per 100,000 inhabitants with a female to male ratio between 2.4:1 and 2:1). Incidence and prevalence were higher in urban than urbanized and rural areas. The prevalence is expected to increase to 374 per 100,000 in 2040 with the highest prevalence rates between 50 and 65 years. Conclusion: The prevalence of MS in Bavaria is among the highest worldwide and will further rise over the next two decades. This demonstrates a need to strengthen healthcare provision systems due to the increasing numbers of particularly older patients with MS in the future.

Incidence of irritable bowel syndrome and chronic fatigue following GI infection: a population-level study using routinely collected claims data.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate the occurrence of postinfectious IBS in routine outpatient care, comparing different types of GI infection and its interaction with psychosomatic comorbidity. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study using routinely collected claims data covering statutorily insured patients in Bavaria, Germany. Cases were defined as patients without prior record of functional intestinal disorder with a first-time diagnosis of GI infection between January 2005 and December 2013 and classed according to the type of infection. Each case was matched by age, sex and district of residence to a patient without history of GI infection. Prior psychological disorder (depression, anxiety or stress reaction disorder) was assessed in the 2 years prior to inclusion. Proportional hazards regression models were used to estimate the HRs for GI infection and psychological disorder. Chronic fatigue syndrome (CFS) was assessed as a comparator outcome. RESULTS: A total of 508 278 patients with first diagnosis of GI infection were identified, resulting in a matched cohort of 1 016 556 patients. All infection types were associated with an increased risk of IBS (HR: 2.19-4.25) and CFS (HR 1.35-1.82). Prior psychological disorder was a distinct risk factor for IBS (HR: 1.73) and CFS (HR: 2.08). Female sex was a further risk factor for both conditions. CONCLUSION: Psychological disorder and GI infections are distinct risk factors for IBS. The high incidence of non-specific GI infection suggests that postinfectious IBS is a common clinical occurrence in primary care. Chronic fatigue is a further significant sequela of GI infection.

Impact of regional socioeconomic variation on coordination and cost of ambulatory care: investigation of claims data from Bavaria, Germany.

OBJECTIVES: A considerable proportion of regional variation in healthcare use and health expenditures is to date still unexplained. The aim was to investigate regional differences in the gatekeeping role of general practitioners and to identify relevant explanatory variables at patient and district level in Bavaria, Germany. DESIGN: Retrospective routine data analysis using claims data held by the Bavarian Association of Statutory Health Insurance Physicians. PARTICIPANTS: All patients who consulted a specialist in ambulatory practice within the first quarter of 2011 (n=3 616 510). OUTCOMES MEASURES: Of primary interest is the effect of district-level measures of rurality, physician density and multiple deprivation on (1) the proportion of patients with general practitioner (GP) coordination of specialist care and (2) the mean amount in Euros claimed by specialist physicians. RESULTS: The proportion of patients whose use of specialist services was coordinated by a GP was significantly higher in rural areas and in highly deprived regions, as compared with urban and less deprived regions. The hierarchical models revealed that increasing age and the presence of chronic diseases are the strongest predictive factors for coordination by a GP. In contrast, the presence of mental illness, an increasing number of medical condition categories and living in a city are predictors for specialist use without GP coordination. The amount claimed per patient was €10 to €20 higher in urban districts and in regions with lower deprivation. Hierarchical models indicate that this amount is on average higher for patients living in towns and lower for patients in regions with high deprivation. CONCLUSION: The present study shows that regional deprivation is closely associated with the way in which patients access primary and specialist care. This has clear consequences, both with respect to the role of the general practitioner and the financial costs of care.