ABSTRACT
OBJECTIVES: To develop and validate a prediction rule to identify well-appearing febrile infants aged ≤90 days with an abnormal urine dipstick at low risk of invasive bacterial infections (IBIs, bacteraemia or bacterial meningitis). DESIGN: Ambispective, multicentre study. SETTING: The derivation set in a single paediatric emergency department (ED) between 2003 and 2017. The validation set in 21 European EDs between December 2017 and November 2019. PATIENTS: Two sets of well-appearing febrile infants aged ≤90 days with an abnormal urine dipstick (either leucocyte esterase and/or nitrite positive test). MAIN OUTCOME: Prevalence of IBI in low-risk infants according to the RISeuP score. RESULTS: We included 662 infants in the derivation set (IBI rate:5.2%). After logistic regression, we developed a score (RISeuP score) including age (≤15 days old), serum procalcitonin (≥0.6 ng/mL) and C reactive protein (≥20 mg/L) as risk factors. The absence of any risk factor had a sensitivity of 96.0% (95% CI 80.5% to 99.3%), a negative predictive value of 99.4% (95% CI 96.4% to 99.9%) and a specificity of 32.9% (95% CI 28.8% to 37.3%) for ruling out an IBI. Applying it in the 449 infants of the validation set (IBI rate 4.9%), sensitivity, negative predictive value and specificity were 100% (95% CI 87.1% to 100%), 100% (95% CI 97.3% to 100%) and 29.7% (95% CI 25.8% to 33.8%), respectively. CONCLUSION: This prediction rule accurately identified well-appearing febrile infants aged ≤90 days with an abnormal urine dipstick at low risk of IBI. This score can be used to guide initial clinical decision-making in these patients, selecting infants suitable for an outpatient management.
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: New biomarkers like procalcitonin and C-reactive protein may help design an accurate decision support tool used to identify children with pleocytosis at low or high risk of bacterial meningitis. Our objective was to develop and validate a score (that we call the meningitis score for emergencies [MSE]) to distinguish bacterial meningitis from aseptic meningitis in children with pleocytosis when initially evaluated at the emergency department. METHODS: We included children between 29 days and 14 years old with meningitis admitted to 25 Spanish emergency departments. A retrospective cohort from between 2011 and 2016 was used as the derivation set and a prospective cohort recruited during 2017 and 2018 was used as the validation set. RESULTS: Among the 1009 patients included, there were 917 cases of aseptic meningitis and 92 of bacterial meningitis. Using multivariable logistic regression analysis, we identified the following predictors of bacterial meningitis from the derivation set: procalcitonin >1.2 ng/mL, cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) protein >80 mg/dL, CSF absolute neutrophil count >1000 cells per mm3, and C-reactive protein >40 mg/L. Using the derivation set, we developed the MSE, assigning 3 points for procalcitonin, 2 points for CSF protein, and 1 point for each of the other variables. An MSE ≥1 predicted bacterial meningitis with a sensitivity of 100% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 95.0%-100%), a specificity of 83.2 (95% CI: 80.6-85.5), and a negative predictive value of 100% (95% CI 99.4-100.) CONCLUSIONS: The MSE accurately distinguishes bacterial from aseptic meningitis in children with CSF pleocytosis.
