Genetic control and prospects of predictive breeding for European winter wheat's Zeleny sedimentation values and Hagberg-Perten falling number.

KEY MESSAGE: Sedimentation values and falling number in the last decades have helped maintain high baking quality despite rigorous selection for grain yield in wheat. Allelic combinations of major loci sustained the bread-making quality while improving grain yield. Glu-D1, Pinb-D1, and non-gluten proteins are associated with sedimentation values and falling number in European wheat. Zeleny sedimentation values (ZSV) and Hagberg-Perten falling number (HFN) are among the most important parameters that help determine the baking quality classes of wheat and, thus, influence the monetary benefits for growers. We used a published data set of 372 European wheat varieties evaluated in replicated field trials in multiple environments. ZSV and HFN traits hold a wide and significant genotypic variation and high broad-sense heritability. The genetic correlations revealed positive and significant associations of ZSV and HFN with each other, grain protein content (GPC) and grain hardness; however, they were all significantly negatively correlated with grain yield. Besides, GPC appeared to be the major predictor for ZSV and HFN. Our genome-wide association analyses based on high-quality SSR, SNP, and candidate gene markers revealed a strong quantitative genetic nature of ZSV and HFN by explaining their total genotypic variance as 41.49% and 38.06%, respectively. The association of known Glutenin (Glu-1) and Puroindoline (Pin-1) with ZSV provided positive analytic proof of our studies. We report novel candidate loci associated with globulins and albumins-the non-gluten monomeric proteins in wheat. In addition, predictive breeding analyses for ZSV and HFN suggest using genomic selection in the early stages of breeding programs with an average prediction accuracy of 81 and 59%, respectively.

A Haplotype-Based GWAS Identified Trait-Improving QTL Alleles Controlling Agronomic Traits under Contrasting Nitrogen Fertilization Treatments in the MAGIC Wheat Population WM-800.

The multi-parent-advanced-generation-intercross (MAGIC) population WM-800 was developed by intercrossing eight modern winter wheat cultivars to enhance the genetic diversity present in breeding populations. We cultivated WM-800 during two seasons in seven environments under two contrasting nitrogen fertilization treatments. WM-800 lines exhibited highly significant differences between treatments, as well as high heritabilities among the seven agronomic traits studied. The highest-yielding WM-line achieved an average yield increase of 4.40 dt/ha (5.2%) compared to the best founder cultivar Tobak. The subsequent genome-wide-association-study (GWAS), which was based on haplotypes, located QTL for seven agronomic traits including grain yield. In total, 40, 51, and 46 QTL were detected under low, high, and across nitrogen treatments, respectively. For example, the effect of QYLD_3A could be associated with the haplotype allele of cultivar Julius increasing yield by an average of 4.47 dt/ha (5.2%). A novel QTL on chromosome 2B exhibited pleiotropic effects, acting simultaneously on three-grain yield components (ears-per-square-meter, grains-per-ear, and thousand-grain-weight) and plant-height. These effects may be explained by a member of the nitrate-transporter-1 (NRT1)/peptide-family, TaNPF5.34, located 1.05 Mb apart. The WM-800 lines and favorable QTL haplotypes, associated with yield improvements, are currently implemented in wheat breeding programs to develop advanced nitrogen-use efficient wheat cultivars.

Reciprocal Recurrent Genomic Selection Is Impacted by Genotype-by-Environment Interactions.

Reciprocal recurrent genomic selection is a breeding strategy aimed at improving the hybrid performance of two base populations. It promises to significantly advance hybrid breeding in wheat. Against this backdrop, the main objective of this study was to empirically investigate the potential and limitations of reciprocal recurrent genomic selection. Genome-wide predictive equations were developed using genomic and phenotypic data from a comprehensive population of 1,604 single crosses between 120 female and 15 male wheat lines. Twenty superior female lines were selected for initiation of the reciprocal recurrent genomic selection program. Focusing on the female pool, one cycle was performed with genomic selection steps at the F2 (60 out of 629 plants) and the F5 stage (49 out of 382 plants). Selection gain for grain yield was evaluated at six locations. Analyses of the phenotypic data showed pronounced genotype-by-environment interactions with two environments that formed an outgroup compared to the environments used for the genome-wide prediction equations. Removing these two environments for further analysis resulted in a selection gain of 1.0 dt ha-1 compared to the hybrids of the original 20 parental lines. This underscores the potential of reciprocal recurrent genomic selection to promote hybrid wheat breeding, but also highlights the need to develop robust genome-wide predictive equations.

Efficiency of a Seedling Phenotyping Strategy to Support European Wheat Breeding Focusing on Leaf Rust Resistance.

Leaf rust resistance is of high importance for a sustainable European wheat production. The expression of known resistance genes starts at different developmental stages of wheat. Breeding for resistance can be supported by a fast, precise, and resource-saving phenotyping. The examination of detached leaf assays of juvenile plants inoculated under controlled conditions and phenotyped by a robotic- and computer-based, high-throughput system is a promising approach in this respect. Within this study, the validation of the phenotyping workflow was conducted based on a winter wheat set derived from Central Europe and examined at different plant developmental stages. Moderate Pearson correlations of 0.38-0.45 comparing leaf rust resistance of juvenile and adult plants were calculated and may be mainly due to different environmental conditions. Specially, the infection under controlled conditions was limited by the application of a single rust race at only one time point. Our results suggest that the diversification with respect to the applied rust race spectrum is promising to increase the consistency of detached leaf assays and the transferability of its results to the field.

Unlocking big data doubled the accuracy in predicting the grain yield in hybrid wheat.

The potential of big data to support businesses has been demonstrated in financial services, manufacturing, and telecommunications. Here, we report on efforts to enter a new data era in plant breeding by collecting genomic and phenotypic information from 12,858 wheat genotypes representing 6575 single-cross hybrids and 6283 inbred lines that were evaluated in six experimental series for yield in field trials encompassing ~125,000 plots. Integrating data resulted in twofold higher prediction ability compared with cases in which hybrid performance was predicted across individual experimental series. Our results suggest that combining data across breeding programs is a particularly appropriate strategy to exploit the potential of big data for predictive plant breeding. This paradigm shift can contribute to increasing yield and resilience, which is needed to feed the growing world population.

Prospects of GWAS and predictive breeding for European winter wheat's grain protein content, grain starch content, and grain hardness.

Grain quality traits determine the classification of registered wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) varieties. Although environmental factors and crop management practices exert a considerable influence on wheat quality traits, a significant proportion of the variance is attributed to the genetic factors. To identify the underlying genetic factors of wheat quality parameters viz., grain protein content (GPC), grain starch content (GSC), and grain hardness (GH), we evaluated 372 diverse European wheat varieties in replicated field trials in up to eight environments. We observed that all of the investigated traits hold a wide and significant genetic variation, and a significant negative correlation exists between GPC and GSC plus grain yield. Our association analyses based on 26,694 high-quality single nucleotide polymorphic markers revealed a strong quantitative genetic nature of GPC and GSC with associations on groups 2, 3, and 6 chromosomes. The identification of known Puroindoline-b gene for GH provided a positive analytic proof for our studies. We report that a locus QGpc.ipk-6A controls both GPC and GSC with opposite allelic effects. Based on wheat's reference and pan-genome sequences, the physical characterization of two loci viz., QGpc.ipk-2B and QGpc.ipk-6A facilitated the identification of the candidate genes for GPC. Furthermore, by exploiting additive and epistatic interactions of loci, we evaluated the prospects of predictive breeding for the investigated traits that suggested its efficient use in the breeding programs.

Negative dominance and dominance-by-dominance epistatic effects reduce grain-yield heterosis in wide crosses in wheat.

The genetics underlying heterosis, the difference in performance of crosses compared with midparents, is hypothesized to vary with relatedness between parents. We established a unique germplasm comprising three hybrid wheat sets differing in the degree of divergence between parents and devised a genetic distance measure giving weight to heterotic loci. Heterosis increased steadily with heterotic genetic distance for all 1903 hybrids. Midparent heterosis, however, was significantly lower in the hybrids including crosses between elite and exotic lines than in crosses among elite lines. The analysis of the genetic architecture of heterosis revealed this to be caused by a higher portion of negative dominance and dominance-by-dominance epistatic effects. Collectively, these results expand our understanding of heterosis in crops, an important pillar toward global food security.

An experimental approach for estimating the genomic selection advantage for Fusarium head blight and Septoria tritici blotch in winter wheat.

KEY MESSAGE: The genomic selection advantage for Fusarium head blight is promising but failed for Septoria tritici blotch. Selection of new breeding parents based on predictions must be treated with caution. Genomic selection (GS) is an approach that uses whole-genome marker data to estimate breeding values of untested genotypes and holds the potential to improve the genetic gain in breeding programs by shortening the breeding cycle and increasing the selection intensity. However, reported realized gain from genomic selection is limited to few experiments. In this study, a training population of 1120 winter wheat lines derived from 14 bi-parental families was genotyped with genome-wide single nucleotide polymorphism markers and phenotyped for Fusarium head blight (FHB) and Septoria tritici blotch (STB) severity, plant height and heading date. We used weighted ridge regression best linear unbiased prediction to calculate genomic estimated breeding values (GEBVs) of 2500 genotypes. Based on GEBVs, we selected the most resistant individuals as well as a random sample and tested them in a multi-location field trial. We computed moderate coefficients of correlation between observed and predicted trait values for FHB severity, plant height and heading date and achieved a genomic selection advantage of 10.62 percentage points for FHB resistance compared to the randomly chosen subpopulation. Genomic selection failed for the improvement of STB resistance with a genomic selection advantage of only 2.14 percentage points. Our results also indicate that the selection of new breeding parents based on GEBVs must be treated with caution. Taken together, the implementation of GS for FHB resistance, plant height and heading date seems to be promising. For traits with very strong genotype × environment variance, like STB resistance, GS appears to be still challenging.

Dissecting the genetics underlying the relationship between protein content and grain yield in a large hybrid wheat population.

KEY MESSAGE: Additive and dominance effect QTL for grain yield and protein content display antagonistic pleiotropic effects, making genomic selection based on the index grain protein deviation a promising method to alleviate the negative correlation between these traits in wheat breeding. Grain yield and quality-related traits such as protein content and sedimentation volume are key traits in wheat breeding. In this study, we used a large population of 1604 hybrids and their 135 parental components to investigate the genetics and metabolomics underlying the negative relationship of grain yield and quality, and evaluated approaches for their joint improvement. We identified a total of nine trait-associated metabolites and show that prediction using genomic data alone resulted in the highest prediction ability for all traits. We dissected the genetic architecture of grain yield and quality-determining traits and show results of the first mapping of the derived trait grain protein deviation. Further, we provide a genetic analysis of the antagonistic relation of grain yield and protein content and dissect the mode of gene action (pleiotropy vs linkage) of identified QTL. Lastly, we demonstrate that the composition of the training set for genomic prediction is crucial when considering different quality classes in wheat breeding.

Accuracy of within- and among-family genomic prediction for Fusarium head blight and Septoria tritici blotch in winter wheat.

Genomic selection is an approach that uses whole-genome marker data to predict breeding values of genotypes and holds the potential to improve the genetic gain in breeding programs. In this study, two winter wheat populations (DS1 and DS2) consisting of 438 and 585 lines derived from six and eight bi-parental families, respectively, were genotyped with genome-wide single nucleotide polymorphism markers and phenotyped for Fusarium head blight and Septoria tritici blotch severity, plant height and heading date. We used ridge regression-best linear unbiased prediction to investigate the potential of genomic selection under different selection scenarios: prediction across each winter wheat population, within- and among-family prediction in each population, and prediction from DS1 to DS2 and vice versa. Moreover, we compared a full random model to a model incorporating quantitative trait loci (QTL) as fixed effects. The prediction accuracies obtained by cross-validation within populations were moderate to high for all traits. Accuracies for individual families were in general lower and varied with population size and genetic architecture of the trait. In the among-family prediction scenario, highest accuracies were achieved by predicting from one half-sib family to another, while accuracies were lowest between unrelated families. Our results further demonstrate that the prediction accuracy can be considerably increased by a fixed effect model approach when major QTL are present. Taken together, the implementation of genomic selection for Fusarium head blight and Septoria tritici blotch resistance seems to be promising, but the composition of the training population is of utmost importance.

Adaptive selection of founder segments and epistatic control of plant height in the MAGIC winter wheat population WM-800.

BACKGROUND: Multi-parent advanced generation intercross (MAGIC) populations are a newly established tool to dissect quantitative traits. We developed the high resolution MAGIC wheat population WM-800, consisting of 910 F4:6 lines derived from intercrossing eight recently released European winter wheat cultivars. RESULTS: Genotyping WM-800 with 7849 SNPs revealed a low mean genetic similarity of 59.7% between MAGIC lines. WM-800 harbours distinct genomic regions exposed to segregation distortion. These are mainly located on chromosomes 2 to 6 of the wheat B genome where founder specific DNA segments were positively or negatively selected. This suggests adaptive selection of individual founder alleles during population development. The application of a genome-wide association study identified 14 quantitative trait loci (QTL) controlling plant height in WM-800, including the known semi-dwarf genes Rht-B1 and Rht-D1 and a potentially novel QTL on chromosome 5A. Additionally, epistatic effects controlled plant height. For example, two loci on chromosomes 2B and 7B gave rise to an additive epistatic effect of 13.7 cm. CONCLUSION: The present study demonstrates that plant height in the MAGIC-WHEAT population WM-800 is mainly determined by large-effect QTL and di-genic epistatic interactions. As a proof of concept, our study confirms that WM-800 is a valuable tool to dissect the genetic architecture of important agronomic traits.

Rht24 reduces height in the winter wheat population 'Solitär × Bussard' without adverse effects on Fusarium head blight infection.

KEY MESSAGE: The dwarfing gene Rht24 on chromosome 6A acts in the wheat population 'Solitär × Bussard', considerably reducing plant height without increasing Fusarium head blight severity and delaying heading stage. The introduction of the Reduced height (Rht)-B1 and Rht-D1 semi-dwarfing genes led to remarkable increases in wheat yields during the Green Revolution. However, their utilization also brings about some unwanted characteristics, including the increased susceptibility to Fusarium head blight. Thus, Rht loci that hold the potential to reduce plant height in wheat without concomitantly increasing Fusarium head blight (FHB) susceptibility are urgently required. The biparental population 'Solitär × Bussard' fixed for the Rht-1 wild-type alleles, but segregating for the recently described gibberellic acid (GA)-sensitive Rht24 gene, was analyzed to identify quantitative trait loci (QTL) for FHB severity, plant height, and heading date and to evaluate the effect of the Rht24 locus on these traits. The most prominent QTL was Rht24 on chromosome 6A explaining 51% of genotypic variation for plant height and exerting an additive effect of - 4.80 cm. For FHB severity three QTL were detected, whereas five and six QTL were found for plant height and heading date, respectively. No FHB resistance QTL was co-localized with QTL for plant height. Unlike the Rht-1 semi-dwarfing alleles, Rht24b did not significantly affect FHB severity. This demonstrates that the choice of semi-dwarfing genes used in plant breeding programs is of utmost consideration where resistance to FHB is an important breeding target.

The roles of pleiotropy and close linkage as revealed by association mapping of yield and correlated traits of wheat (Triticum aestivum L.).

Grain yield (GY) of bread wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) is quantitatively inherited. Correlated GY-syndrome traits such as plant height (PH), heading date (HD), thousand grain weight (TGW), test weight (TW), grains per ear (GPE), and ear weight (EW) influence GY. Most quantitative genetics studies assessed the multiple-trait (MT) complex of GY-syndrome using single-trait approaches, and little is known about its underlying pleiotropic architecture. We investigated the pleiotropic architecture of wheat GY-syndrome through MT association mapping (MT-GWAS) using 372 varieties phenotyped in up to eight environments and genotyped with 18 832 single nucleotide polymorphisms plus 24 polymorphic functional markers. MT-GWAS revealed a total of 345 significant markers spread genome wide, representing 8, 40, 11, 40, 34, and 35 effective GY-PH, GY-HD, GY-TGW, GY-TW, GY-GPE, and GY-EW associations, respectively. Among them, pleiotropic roles of Rht-B1 and TaGW2-6B loci were corroborated. Only one marker presented simultaneous associations for three traits (i.e. GY-TGW-TW). Close linkage was difficult to differentiate from pleiotropy; thus, the pleiotropic architecture of GY-syndrome was dissected more as a cause of pleiotropy rather than close linkage. Simulations showed that minor allele frequencies, along with sizes and distances between quantitative trait loci for two traits, influenced the ability to distinguish close linkage from pleiotropy.

Genome-wide mapping and prediction suggests presence of local epistasis in a vast elite winter wheat populations adapted to Central Europe.

KEY MESSAGE: Genome-wide association mapping as well as marker- and haplotype-based genome-wide selection unraveled a complex genetic architecture of grain yield with absence of large effect QTL and presence of local epistatic effects. The genetic architecture of grain yield determines to a large extent the optimum design of genomic-assisted wheat breeding programs. The main goal of our study was to examine the potential and limitations to dissect the genetic architecture of grain yield in wheat using a large experimental data set. Our study was based on phenotypic information and genomic data of 13,901 SNPs of a diverse set of 3816 elite wheat lines adapted to Central Europe. We applied genome-wide association mapping based on experimental and simulated data sets and performed marker- and haplotype-based genomic prediction. Computer simulations revealed for our mapping population a high power to detect QTL, even if they individually explained only 2.5% of the genetic variation. Despite this, we found no stable marker-trait associations when validating in independent subsets. A two-dimensional scan for marker-marker interactions indicated presence of local epistasis which was further supported by improved prediction abilities when shifting from marker- to haplotype-based genome-wide prediction approaches. We observed that marker effects estimated using genome-wide prediction approaches strongly varied across years albeit resulting in high prediction abilities. Thus, our results suggested that the prediction accuracy of genomic selection in wheat is mainly driven by relatedness rather than by exploiting knowledge of the genetic architecture.

Genome-metabolite associations revealed low heritability, high genetic complexity, and causal relations for leaf metabolites in winter wheat (Triticum aestivum).

We investigated associations between the metabolic phenotype, consisting of quantitative data of 76 metabolites from 135 contrasting winter wheat (Triticum aestivum) lines, and 17 372 single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) markers. Metabolite profiles were generated from flag leaves of plants from three different environments, with average repeatabilities of 0.5-0.6. The average heritability of 0.25 was unaffected by the heading date. Correlations among metabolites reflected their functional grouping, highlighting the strict coordination of various routes of the citric acid cycle. Genome-wide association studies identified significant associations for six metabolic traits, namely oxalic acid, ornithine, L-arginine, pentose alcohol III, L-tyrosine, and a sugar oligomer (oligo II), with between one and 17 associated SNPs. Notable associations with genes regulating transcription or translation explained between 2.8% and 32.5% of the genotypic variance (pG). Further candidate genes comprised metabolite carriers (pG 32.5-38.1%), regulatory proteins (pG 0.3-11.1%), and metabolic enzymes (pG 2.5-32.5%). The combinatorial use of genomic and metabolic data to construct partially directed networks revealed causal inferences in the correlated metabolite traits and associated SNPs. The evaluated causal relationships will provide a basis for predicting the effects of genetic interferences on groups of correlated metabolic traits, and thus on specific metabolic phenotypes.

Genome-wide association mapping of resistance to eyespot disease (Pseudocercosporella herpotrichoides) in European winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) and fine-mapping of Pch1.

KEY MESSAGE: Genotypes with recombination events in the Triticum ventricosum introgression on chromosome 7D allowed to fine-map resistance gene Pch1, the main source of eyespot resistance in European winter wheat cultivars. Eyespot (also called Strawbreaker) is a common and serious fungal disease of winter wheat caused by the necrotrophic fungi Oculimacula yallundae and Oculimacula acuformis (former name Pseudocercosporella herpotrichoides). A genome-wide association study (GWAS) for eyespot was performed with 732 microsatellite markers (SSR) and 7761 mapped SNP markers derived from the 90 K iSELECT wheat array using a panel of 168 European winter wheat varieties as well as three spring wheat varieties and phenotypic evaluation of eyespot in field tests in three environments. Best linear unbiased estimations (BLUEs) were calculated across all trials and ranged from 1.20 (most resistant) to 5.73 (most susceptible) with an average value of 4.24 and a heritability of H 2 = 0.91. A total of 108 SSR and 235 SNP marker-trait associations (MTAs) were identified by considering associations with a -log10 (P value) ≥3.0. Significant MTAs for eyespot-score BLUEs were found on chromosomes 1D, 2A, 2D, 3D, 5A, 5D, 6A, 7A and 7D for the SSR markers and chromosomes 1B, 2A, 2B, 2D, 3B and 7D for the SNP markers. For 18 varieties (10.5%), a highly resistant phenotype was detected that was linked to the presence of the resistance gene Pch1 on chromosome 7D. The identification of genotypes with recombination events in the introgressed genomic segment from Triticum ventricosum harboring the Pch1 resistance gene on chromosome 7DL allowed the fine-mapping of this gene using additional SNP markers and a potential candidate gene Traes_7DL_973A33763 coding for a CC-NBS-LRR class protein was identified.

Validating the prediction accuracies of marker-assisted and genomic selection of Fusarium head blight resistance in wheat using an independent sample.

KEY MESSAGE: Compared with independent validation, cross-validation simultaneously sampling genotypes and environments provided similar estimates of accuracy for genomic selection, but inflated estimates for marker-assisted selection. Estimates of prediction accuracy of marker-assisted (MAS) and genomic selection (GS) require validations. The main goal of our study was to compare the prediction accuracies of MAS and GS validated in an independent sample with results obtained from fivefold cross-validation using genomic and phenotypic data for Fusarium head blight resistance in wheat. In addition, the applicability of the reliability criterion, a concept originally developed in the context of classic animal breeding and GS, was explored for MAS. We observed that prediction accuracies of MAS were overestimated by 127% using cross-validation sampling genotype and environments in contrast to independent validation. In contrast, prediction accuracies of GS determined in independent samples are similar to those estimated with cross-validation sampling genotype and environments. This can be explained by small population differentiation between the training and validation sets in our study. For European wheat breeding, which is so far characterized by a slow temporal dynamic in allele frequencies, this assumption seems to be realistic. Thus, GS models used to improve European wheat populations are expected to possess a long-lasting validity. Since quantitative trait loci information can be exploited more precisely if the predicted genotype is more related to the training population, the reliability criterion is also a valuable tool to judge the level of prediction accuracy of individual genotypes in MAS.

Genetic architecture of male floral traits required for hybrid wheat breeding.

KEY MESSAGE: This study revealed a complex genetic architecture of male floral traits in wheat, and Rht-D1 was identified as the only major QTL. Genome-wide prediction approaches but also phenotypic recurrent selection appear promising to increase outcrossing ability required for hybrid wheat seed production. Hybrid wheat breeding is a promising approach to increase grain yield and yield stability. However, the identification of lines with favorable male floral characteristics required for hybrid seed production currently poses a severe bottleneck for hybrid wheat breeding. This study therefore aimed to unravel the genetic architecture of floral traits and to assess the potential of genomic approaches to accelerate their improvement. To this end, we employed a panel of 209 diverse winter wheat lines assessed for male floral traits and genotyped with genome-wide markers as well as for Rht-B1 and Rht-D1. We found the highest proportion of explained genotypic variance for the Rht-D1 locus (11-24 %), for which the dwarfing allele Rht-D1b had a negative effect on anther extrusion, visual anther extrusion and pollen mass. The genome-wide scan detected only few QTL with small or medium effects, indicating a complex genetic architecture. Consequently, marker-assisted selection yielded only moderate prediction abilities (0.44-0.63), mainly relying on Rht-D1. Genomic selection based on weighted ridge-regression best linear unbiased prediction achieved higher prediction abilities of up to 0.70 for anther extrusion. In conclusion, recurrent phenotypic selection appears most cost-effective for the initial improvement of floral traits in wheat, while genome-wide prediction approaches may be worthwhile when complete marker profiles are already available in a hybrid wheat breeding program.

Genomic selection in a commercial winter wheat population.

KEY MESSAGE: Genomic selection models can be trained using historical data and filtering genotypes based on phenotyping intensity and reliability criterion are able to increase the prediction ability. We implemented genomic selection based on a large commercial population incorporating 2325 European winter wheat lines. Our objectives were (1) to study whether modeling epistasis besides additive genetic effects results in enhancement on prediction ability of genomic selection, (2) to assess prediction ability when training population comprised historical or less-intensively phenotyped lines, and (3) to explore the prediction ability in subpopulations selected based on the reliability criterion. We found a 5 % increase in prediction ability when shifting from additive to additive plus epistatic effects models. In addition, only a marginal loss from 0.65 to 0.50 in accuracy was observed using the data collected from 1 year to predict genotypes of the following year, revealing that stable genomic selection models can be accurately calibrated to predict subsequent breeding stages. Moreover, prediction ability was maximized when the genotypes evaluated in a single location were excluded from the training set but subsequently decreased again when the phenotyping intensity was increased above two locations, suggesting that the update of the training population should be performed considering all the selected genotypes but excluding those evaluated in a single location. The genomic prediction ability was substantially higher in subpopulations selected based on the reliability criterion, indicating that phenotypic selection for highly reliable individuals could be directly replaced by applying genomic selection to them. We empirically conclude that there is a high potential to assist commercial wheat breeding programs employing genomic selection approaches.

Genome-based establishment of a high-yielding heterotic pattern for hybrid wheat breeding.

Hybrid breeding promises to boost yield and stability. The single most important element in implementing hybrid breeding is the recognition of a high-yielding heterotic pattern. We have developed a three-step strategy for identifying heterotic patterns for hybrid breeding comprising the following elements. First, the full hybrid performance matrix is compiled using genomic prediction. Second, a high-yielding heterotic pattern is searched based on a developed simulated annealing algorithm. Third, the long-term success of the identified heterotic pattern is assessed by estimating the usefulness, selection limit, and representativeness of the heterotic pattern with respect to a defined base population. This three-step approach was successfully implemented and evaluated using a phenotypic and genomic wheat dataset comprising 1,604 hybrids and their 135 parents. Integration of metabolomic-based prediction was not as powerful as genomic prediction. We show that hybrid wheat breeding based on the identified heterotic pattern can boost grain yield through the exploitation of heterosis and enhance recurrent selection gain. Our strategy represents a key step forward in hybrid breeding and is relevant for self-pollinating crops, which are currently shifting from pure-line to high-yielding and resilient hybrid varieties.